RED CLUBS IS GROUP 1 CLASS

RED CLUBS (38) won the Coventry Stakes in seriously fast time. In fact my speed ratings indicate it was a Group 1 class performance.

Red Clubs was backward according to Raceform when losing on his racecourse debut. He's won all three of his starts since then and is going to be hard to beat in the immediate future. Normally most of the very best two year olds don't even make their racecourse debuts until the last week of August or later. This being so, Red Clubs will be a deserving favourite for the National Stakes on his next outing. Okay he'll have to prove that he stays seven furlongs in that race. But his trainer, Barry Hills, is confident he will, and he's not normally an optimist in such matters.

Last season's two top two year olds on my speed ratings were Footsetepsinthesand (40) and Motivator (39). That's the kind of benchmark Red Clubs needs to match, and he's getting remarkably close to it for this early in the season.

MASTA PLASTA A SERIOUSLY FAST JUVENILE

MASTA PLASTA (38) ran just as fast as Red Clubs to take the Norfolk Stakes and is clearly a very fast two year old. The thing is the shorter the distance the more fast horses there are. So the fact that Masta Plasta produced his big run over a furlong shorter than Red Clubs leads me to think he has less potential. Nonetheless in the shorter juvenile races coming up over the next month or two he's going to be hard to beat.

NORTHERN EMPIRE HAS A SHOT IN JULY STAKES

NORTHERN EMPIRE (33) blew home by eight lengths in a Lingfield maiden, earning a speed rating that equates to Listed class for a two year old. He'll have to do a bit better to win the Group 3 July Stakes which is now his target but he's clearly very progressive and could easily improve the required amount.

CHINEUER FAST ENOUGH TO TAKE NUNTHORPE

I confess that I have under-rated CHINEUER (43). He'd won all his three starts cozily this year in France. But the fact that he'd never earned a speed rating better than 39 convinced me that he really wasn't that smart. What I failed to take into account was that the sprinters in France are slow by British standards. So all Chineur was doing was what any top class British sprinter would have done in the same circumstances - which is enough to win. It's now clear he had a fair bit in reserve when winning because he ran a whole lot faster when more stornlgy pressed to take the Kings Stand stakes at the Royal meeting.

I'd be wary of betting that Chineur would last six furlongs at the pace they go in British Group 1 sprints. But at five furlongs he's obviously very smart and looks the one they all have to beat in the Nunthorpe.

CAPE OF GOOD HOPE TOUGH TO BEAT AT SIX FURLONGS

CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (44) has spent much of his career chasing home superhorse Silent Witness in Hong Kong. However, he's clearly a seriously good horse in his own right, especially over six furlongs on fast ground. He proved this when winning the Golden Jubilee Stakes in seriously fast time at York.

If he'd got a clear run when beaten half a length in last year's July Cup Cape Of Good Hope would probably now have won all three times he's run outside of Hong Kong at six furlongs on fast ground.

Cape Of Good Hope isn't entered in the July Cup. But runner-up GALEOTA (44) is. Galeota is clearly a very high class sprinter and earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old all season here. I fancy his chances of going one better at Newmarket.

IFFRAAJ HAS A REAL SHOT IN THE JULY CUP

There's basically nothing between the top sprint handicappers and the best Group horses at five and six furlongs in Britain. So it was no great surprise to see IFFRAAJ (43) run almost as fast as the Golden Jubilee winner when taking the Wokingham.

Iffraaj is now due to run in the July Cup. And he deserves to. He'll be one of the fastest runners in the line up according to my speed ratings and must have a good chance of winning.

ELECTROCUTIONIST ON A ROLL

The Italian champion ELECTROCUTIONIST (42) won yet again when taking the Group 1 Gran Premio Di Milano last Sunday. This time he was made to work by VOL DE NUIT (42) who got to within three quarters of a lengths.

Electrocutionist's jockey says that he would have won by at least two lengths had Vol De Nuit not twice bumped his mount. That seems logical as Electrocutionist has previously earned speed ratings of 43 and 44 from me and would have done so again had he won by a slightly bigger margin.

It's a bit of a shame that Electrocutionist lost the Gran Premio del Jockey Club in desperate ground by a short head last year. Otherwise he'd still be unbeaten in six starts to date. His target now apparently is the Juddmonte International at York in August. That race will involve a cut back in trip to an extended ten furlongs but his trainer seems unconcerned. Indeed Electrocutionist has already won Listed races impressively at ten and eleven furlongs.

Vol De Nuit is beginning to look rather interesting. He lost on his racecourse but then won his next four before running a close second to the very smart Altieri in the Group 1 Premio Presidente della Republica last time out. On that occasion he pulled three lengths clear of the third. This time he buried the third place finisher by ten lengths.

Vol De Nuit is certainly fast enough to win a Group 1, and I'll be very interested in his chances if he ships over to Britain, Ireland or France for a big race later this season (so far his only non-Italian entry is the Arc).

AZAMOUR LOOKS BOMB-PROOF

AZAMOUR (44) is one of those rare horses who just always seems to run his race. Most top class horses have some sort of quirk. But not Azamour. He just runs one incredibly fast race after another. He did so again to take the Prince Of Wales Stakes from ACE (43).

The trouble with Azamour being so consistent is that we're never going to get much of a price about him (he was only 11-8 here). Still, he's going to be a tough nut to crack wherever he runs next.

By the way his connections were talking after the race it sounds like Azamour may well skip the Eclipse and quite probably the King George. That leaves the Juddmonte International as his next obvious target.

Ace earned a seriously big international Group 1 class speed rating for the second time in a row here. Normally horses that do that win a Group 1, and I'd bet on Ace doing that soon. My gut feel is that he's still generally under-rated. Totesport's 14-1 quote for Ace in the Eclipse confirms this idea. My ratings suggest he should be halve those odds or less and has a serious chance at Sandown.

VALIXIR CONFIRMS HIS CLASS

VALIXIR (43) earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a horse in France all season when winning the Prix d'Ispahan. In the Queene Anne Stakes he met Rakti who had earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse in Britain this year. Valixir came out on top and is clearly something special.

Valixir, like Rakti, is a bit quirky. His main characteristic according to his jockey Christophe Soumillon, is that "he doesn't like the company of other horses". This explains why he went walkabout in the closing stages at Newmarket on his seasonal debut.

Toss out his Newmarket run and Rakti's record at ten furlongs or less shows six wins from seven tries, with his sole loss being by the brilliant Bago.

Given his character and Soumillon's 100% record with the horse I'd say Valixir's best future prospects lie in fields of less than a dozen with Soumillon aboard. IN such circumstances I'd think long and hard about opposing him at ten furlongs or less.

Rakti (42) has run faster than he did here. But he is a very buzzy horse who always seems to run fast and take a lot out of himself in his races. As a result he really does seem to be best when he's given a long rest between his runs which wasn't the case here. Hopefully Rakti will now have a break and come back for an Autumn campaign. If he's brought back again for the Eclipse or even the Sussex Stakes I'd be inclined to oppose him.

The Australian runner STARCRAFT (41) made a promising start to his European campaign by running third. He's now trained by Luca Cumani whose best runners always seem to improve for their first run. I strongly suspect Starcraft will.

Starcraft's jockey said after the race that he'd really like to be riding him over an extra two furlongs. The ballpark speed ratings I've made for Starcraft's runs down under suggest he is right. They indicate that Starcraft's very best run came when he got to within a length of Mummify in the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes at Caulfield over ten furlongs.

PROCLAMATION THE JOINT FASTEST THREE YEAR OLD

A short while ago I was eulogizing about the amazing time PROCLAMATION (42) had run at Newmarket. He's now gone and run even faster to take the Jersey Stakes. In doing so he equaled the biggest speed rating I've awarded a three year old beyond a short sprint trip so far this term (Motivator is the other three year old that's run as fast at longer trips by my estimates).

It's beginning to look like this year's crop of three year olds is not quite up to beating the older horses at Group 1 level. But if there is to be an exception I'd bet on it being Proclamation. I give him a seriously good chance of winning the Sussex Stakes.

I don't really know where runner-up CAMACHO (39) goes from here. He earned a rating of 40 from me last time and even that's not normally good enough to beat older horses in a Grooup 1, certainly not this year. However, if he were steered towards the Prix Maurice de Gheest or Prix Foret, I'd rate his chances quite highly as those are invariably sub-par Group 1's. Of course, if Camacho continues to race below Group 1 class he'll be pretty hard to beat whaver race he contests.

I'M STILL NOT CONVINCED BY SHAMARDAL

I knocked Shamardal (40) last week for winning the Prix du Jockey Club in slow time. So it may seem a bit much for me to be knocking him again now that he's gone and taken his third Group 1 on the bounce, the St James' Palace Stakes.

The thing is Shamardal got loose on the lead in the St James' Palace Stakes from a heavily favoured inside draw on a track that is heavily biased towards front runners. Even so he still only managed to earn a speed rating that is not quite Group 1.

Maybe I've got Shamardal all wrong, but I have to go with what my ratings tell me, and they're saying he's really not that smart

I'm not alone in questioning Shamardal's most recent big win. Michael Bell, the trainer of Motivator told the Racing Post after the race “I just wonder quite how good a Group 1 race it was.“The third horse (Oratorio) was on and off the bridle and Indesatchel blew his brains out before the race started.”

MOSTASHAAR WAY BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER

The Britannia Handicap is not normally won in particularly fast time. But it was this year thanks to MOSTASHAAR (40) who won most impressively.

How good Mostashaar is only time will tell. But this run suggests he is capable of winning in at least Group 2 class.

IMPERIAL STRIDE IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

IMPERIAL STRIDE (42) came within two lengths of winning a Group 1 as a two year old. He bounced right back to that sort of form when jumped up all the way from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter to take the Listed Wolferton Stakes at the Royal meeting.

My speed ratings indicate that Imperial Stride is actually likely to prove competitive in the very best races.

It's hard to get a handle on Imperial Stride at this stage. It could be that he's best fresh. Maybe he prefers fast ground. All I can say is that he's improved massively for the step up to ten furlongs and looks well worth following.

Runner-up MULLINS BAY (41) had won his only previous start at ten furlongs and is now looking very interesting for the John Smith's Cup over the same course and distance. I'd hold off backing him ante-post for that race though as an inside draw is almost vital for success in big fields at York and we won't know his post position till the overnight stage.

SONGLARK GOOD ENOUGH TO WIN A GROUP 2

SONGLARK (40) came back off a one year lay-off to win a hot little Listed race at Pontefract. In doing so he ran fast enough to win a Group 2 for the third time in a row. I hope to see him stepped up in class next time as I'd fancy him very strongly to win a Group 2 or 3 over a mile and a half.

Runner-up SHASTYE (40) looks even more interesting since she's a filly and therefore eligible for softer races than this against her own sex. She's lightly raced for a four year old and could be anything. I'd actually give her a shot in the Yorkshire Oaks or Prix Vermeille.

SANTIAGO NOT THAT SMART

German Guineas winner Santiago (37) duly won the Group 3 Grosser Preis der Wirtschaft at Dortmund last Sunday, taking his record to four wins from four stats. He's now due to step up to ten furlongs for the Group 1 Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich. He'll be fancied there because he has a big reputation and three year olds have won the last three running's of the race. But the clock says that Santiago ran no faster here than he did when taking the German Guineas, and that he has yet to run a time that would give him a shot in a Group 1. In addition several jockeys in the race say that their mounts were unable to handle the loose ground caused by overwatering.

DIAMOND CIRCLE IS PATTERN CLASS

DIAMOND CIRCLE (37) won a Ripon maiden in seriously fast time. This was only her second lifetime start and her first at the sort of distance she's bred for.

It's hard to tell at this stage if Diamond Circle will prove as good as her half-sister Hawajiss (placed in two Oaks). All I can say for sure is that she is very promising and proved that she's pattern class here.

Runner-up BAZELLE (36) ran a fine race last season when going under by a mere half length to Dash To The Top (third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile next time out). Here, stepped up to ten furlongs, she again showed similarly smart form. A middle distance maiden looks a formality for Bazelle now.

NATALIE JANE CAN WIN AGAIN

NATALIE JANE (36) ran fast enough to take a Listed race for fillies when running away with a handicap at Salisbury. Her trainer blames himself for her last two defeats. He experimented by running her on dirt in the US then he put blinkers on next time, neither of which she seemed to like. Toss those runs out and Natalie Jane now shows two wins out of three at middle distances and a third place finish in Listed company in her only loss.

On this showing Natalie Jane should have no trouble earning some more black type, and if she sticks to ordinary handicaps like this she'll be tough to beat in the near future.

AYLMER ROAD SHOULD WIN AGAIN SOON

AYLMER ROAD (36) improved significantly when stepped up to a mile and a half for the first time at Bath. The fact that he won by six lengths looks set to ensure the handicapper awards him a big penalty for this effort. But if my speed ratings are any guide Aylmer Road should still be eligible for races below his true class. Indeed I can see him winning something pretty decent before long.

TRINCULO IS BETTER THAN CLAIMING CLASS

TRINCULO (37) ran away with a Sandown claiming sprint in fast time. He has now won the last three times that he's run five furlongs on turf and earned a speed rating as big as any I've awarded him in his lengthy career here.

I concede that Trinculo's last three wins have all come in claiming contests, but the clock suggests that he's still very capable of winning a decent handicap.

MENEUR DE JEU WORTH FOLLOWING

MENEUR DE JEU (36) earned an unusually good speed rating for the off season when switched back to hurdles at Newton Abbot recently. He's obviously been having problems with the bigger jumps and, seeing that he still qualifies for novice races over hurdles, I hope he's kept to timber for the immediate future. I can see him winning a whole string of little races like this.

KONIGSTIGER LOOKING GOOD FOR THE GERMAN DERBY

I've just started the work necessary to make speed ratings for Germany. As part of the task I calculated standard times and speed ratings for last Sunday's big meeting at Cologne. I'm glad I did because they highlight the ability of KONIGSTIGER (39) who won the key prep for the German Derby, the Group 2 Oppenheim-Union-Rennen.

Konigistiger is now unbeaten in four starts. He's already won a Group 1 in Italy at two (the Gran Criterium) and sets the standard for the big race at Hamburg next month.

Kongistiger's pacemaker, Silent Wind (39) almost caused an upset, only going under in the final strides. He clearly improved and must be the best maiden in training. But I doubt that he's going to get the better of Konigstiger in the Derby since his stablemate is one of those horses that only ever does just enough to win (all of Konigstiger's three wins since his maiden vicotry have come in photos)

Andreas Schutz, the trainer of Konigstiger, saddled the first, second and fourth and put in a good word for BERNARD (37) who filled the latter position. He felt Bernard would improve significantly for the run (his first since April). Personally I still think Konigstiger will beat him at Hamburg. He's now finished in front of Bernard both times they met. In addition Bernard's pedigree is a tad too speedy for my liking (his sire Trempolino tends to need a lot of help from the dam's side to get a horse to stay 12 furlongs and he doesn't get it with Bernard's dam who failed to stay more than a mile).

MOTIVATOR JUST AN AVERAGE DERBY WINNER ON THE CLOCK

I was looking forward to making speed ratings for Derby day at Epsom. MOTIVATOR (42) had clearly run a fast time. And from the way he was being talked up I fully expected to be awarding him a very big speed rating indeed. But when I ran the races through my software it spat out a rating of 42 for Motivator. That’s the rating the balance of probabilities say he deserves, and it’s not one of those occasions where I see any evidence which would warrant ‘tweaking’ the number. All the evidence says that he merits a rating of 42. That’s certainly a really good speed rating. In fact it’s the best I’ve awarded a three year old all season. But it is only average for a Derby winner.

To be fair, the vast majority of Derby winners earn a rating between 41 and 43 from me. It is usually only later that we discover just how good they are when they tackle older horses which can run faster.

The problem for Motivator is that he has been unlucky enough to win the Derby in a year when there are a whole slew of exceptionally fast older horses around. Shirocco, Electrocutionist, Valixir, Yeats, Grey Swallow, Bago, Ace, Azamour, Reefscape, Doyen, Cherry Mix, Ouija Board, Acropolis, North Light and Rakti have all run faster than Motivator. And he’s sure to encounter one or more of them if he tackles the Eclipse or the King George.

In the past the top older horses invariably retired at the end of their three year old careers. Now, thanks largely to the huge international prizes on offer, an increasing number of them are staying in training. As a result, a three year old like Motivator has a much tougher task winning the big Weight For Age races than members of the classic generation did in the early nineties and before.

I saw one quote of even money Motivator for the King George. That’s laughable considering the fierce opposition he would face if lining up for that contest.

Let’s not go overboard here. Motivator is a very decent horse, one with the potential to become very good indeed. But he’s not there yet, not by a long chalk. So let’s not do him and his connections a disservice by hyping him as we have so many other unexposed young horses in the past. This would undoubtedly cause racing fans to be disappointed instead of impressed if Motivator managed to reach the first four in the Eclipse or King George. In 2005, against the current crop of older horses that would really be quite some achievement for a three year old.

Runner-up WALK IN THE PARK (39) put up a good performance and I suspect he can run faster. I say this because he’s such a big, long striding horse and will surely be better suited to a more galloping track. In fact when I saw a photo of Walk In The Park in Paris Turf a few days before the Derby I became concerned that he wouldn’t act on the track at all. He’s a great big strapping beast with a very deep chest and huge withers. He was certainly the biggest, tallest runner in the Derby. So it’s not that surprising he got caught flat-footed when the apce quickened up before staying on strongly late.

I rather fancy Walk In The Park’s chances in the Irish Derby, even if Motivator turns up. The track will suit him a whole lot better, and the early pace will most likely be stronger as well. Long term Walk In The Park looks the best St Leger prospect we’ve seen so far.

YEATS DID NOT STEAL THE CORONATION CUP

Most observers seem to believe that YEATS (43) stole the Coronation Cup by setting a slow pace and then catching his rivals napping when kicking clear three furlongs out. The clock tells a very different story. Certainly Yeats may have gotten away with a soft early pace. But he ended up running a seriously good International Group 1 class time.

This was a very good performance by Yeats - one that I suspect is going to be under-rated by many pundits. I concede that there are a lot of very smart 10 and 12 furlong horses around this year but surely a horse as good as Yeats can be placed to win another Group 1 this term.

Third-placed REEFSCAPE (39) continues to interest me. He got outpaced when Yeats quickened up but was staying on strong at the finish.

Last year Reefscape earned the biggest speed rating (43) I’ve awarded any horse beyond a mile and a half in recent years when taking the Prix Chaudenay. I don’t think he necessarily needs longer trips to produce such form, simply a stronger gallop than he got here.

SLEEPING INDIAN IS A GROUP 1 HORSE

SLEEPING INDIAN (42) ran a huge time to take a hot renewal of the Listed John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock. He is now unbeaten in three starts and merits serious consideration for the Group 1 races John Gosden has him entered for. He’s very hard to assess at this point but clearly has any amount of potential.

Runner up VANDERLIN (40) is a hard horse to get by in a small field over seven furlongs. I suspect another race can be found for him soon.

SABRE D’ARGENT MAY WELL BE EVEN BETTER THAN HE LOOKS

I thought that Big Bad Bob (37) was one of the best bets of the season in a conditions race at Doncaster last Saturday. He is almost impossible to beat when he encounters a field small enough to dominate from the front. He ran below form and was rested after one poor run in a small field. Otherwise prior to this race Big Bad Bob’s only loss in eight runs in fields of seven or less was inflicted by Kris Kin who went on to win the Derby next time out.

In a field of hold up horses I just couldn’t believe Big Bad Bob would get caught. As expected his rivals allowed him an uncontested lead. But amazingly SABRE D’ARGENT (38) ran him down and won clearly.

Sabre D’Argent won this off a two year lay-off and is now unbeaten in four tries at less than 12 furlongs. He only earned a Group 3 class rating from me here. But he did so in exceptionally unfavorable circumstances, so I’d be surprised if he can’t run faster. His connections seem to agree as they’ve got him entered up in several Group 1 races.

HOT LIVES UP TO NAME

HOT (33) apparently disliked the heavy ground he encountered on his first two starts. He was deliberately steered towards a firm surface for his third start at Leicester where he won in fast time from the useful Mr Sandicliffe.

This run marks Hot out as one of the best juveniles we’ve seen so far. He’s certainly pattern class in terms of early season five furlong two year olds and could easily take one of the big sales races that his trainer, Richard Hannon, has him entered for. Hannon has a great record in such races.

ESWARAH DIDN’T RUN FAST IN THE OAKS

I wasn’t keen on Eswarah (36) before the Oaks and I’m still not keen on her despite her win. She recorded only a Listed class time. I suspect that she benefited from the fact that many of her toughest rivals either failed to act on the track or the firm ground. I look forward to taking her on at short odds again.

NORTON AS GOOD AS EVER

NORTON (40) won a red hot mile handicap at Sandown in a time that would win many Group 2 contests. I’d actually like to see him given a shot at a Group contest as he seems best in the smaller fields that they attract. In fact on fast ground at a mile he has won four times out of five in fields of 13 or less and remains very hard to pass.

Runner-up MOMTIC (39) has already franked the form with a runaway win next time. He’s now merited a write up twice from me and is clearly a very progressive horse. He too is capable of winning in Group company if my ratings are any guide.

Third-place ACE OF HEARTS (39) is another that seems to prefer smaller fields. If he encounters a race with 11 runners or less soon I would be wary of opposing him. He’s won the last three times he’s hit fields that small.

BID FOR FAME CAN WIN AGAIN

BID FOR FAME (36) ran away with a claiming race on the Polytrack at Wolverhampton and is clearly a smart horse in a small field such as he met here. I suspect he’ll start at long odds if he’s stepped up to handicap company next time. But if there are fewer than a dozen runners I’d be interested in his chances.