TIMES AT ASCOT

I spoke to Clerk of The Course Chris Stickells and also spent a lot of time analysing the results from Ascot last week to see if the re-building of the course had affected race times. I made speed ratings based on my old standard times then threw the results into a spreadsheet to see their deviation from what I'd expected. Basically there was no difference. The alterations to the course do not appear to have altered its speed in any noticeable way at any distance. The only time that you could argue was out of whack was the very fast time recorded by Linas Selection in the King George V Handicap. But times at shorter and longer trips appeared consistent with before, so I must assume that Linas Selection is simply a very useful horse.

OUIJA BOARD IS MAGIC OFF A SLOW PACE

I now have to completely revise my ideas about OUIJA BOARD (29) following her win in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Previously I'd thought that she was best at a mile and a half and could get outpaced at a vital stage in slow run races. Now I have to recognise that the three most valuable races she has won have been slow run affairs, two of them at trips short of a mile and a half – the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the Hong Kong Vase and now this contest. I'm now inclined to believe that she's not going to win a strongly run mile and a half race against colts like the King George.

I don't think that the runner-up Electrocutionist (29) is as effective over a mile and a quarter on turf as he is on dirt, especially off a slow pace. So I'd anticipate improvement when he runs in the King George. However, he's a big, top heavy horse and I didn't like the way he shifted his ground in the Dubai World Cup. With his physique he must be hard to keep sound and the fact that he's now lost the last two times he's run on grass makes me inclined to oppose him in the King George as well.

I thought third placed MANDURO (28) was the one to beat, and he certainly ran a big race despite being boxed in for a long way.

I doubt that Manduro was suited to the slow pace as his jockey, Christophe Soumillon, felt it caused him to race a bit too keenly for his own good. Interestingly, he added that he felt Manduro had the speed to win over a mile. This makes him look an interesting candidate for the QEII later in the season. The QEII is Europe's top mile race but it is invariably run at such a strong pace that it goes to a middle distance horse (the last three runnings have gone to horses that had previously won in Group 1 company over a mile and a half). Meanwhile Manduro has great prospects of landing a Group 1 race over ten furlongs.

I rather wonder if Dettori set a slow pace on Electrocutionist because he knew that it wouldn't suit the favourite DAVID JUNIOR (27). If so it was a shrewd tactic because Brian Meehan's charge once more showed that he really does need a decent gallop up front to produce his best form. He'd be pretty certain to get it in the Eclipse Stakes and that is where I'd head next with him if he were mine. He's probably the best ten furlong turf horse on the planet right now and would be tough to beat at Sandown.

LINAS SELECTION ONE OF THE TOP THREE YEAR OLDS

LINAS SELECTION (40) recorded a fantastic time to run away with the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. His only loss in four runs beyond sprint trips came on his seasonal debut when he finished a close second to Papal Bull. That race was over ten furlongs which is probably short of his best. Over a mile and a half Linas Selection is one of the best three year olds we've seen so far this season according to my speed ratings.

If Linas Selection could get beyond a mile and a half he'd be a serious St Leger candidate. His pedigree makes that seem unlikely but his trainer is Mark Johnston who seems to have an amazing knack of getting horses to outstay their pedigrees. In any event, wherever he goes next I'd be wary of opposing Linas Selection.

Runner-up ENJOY THE MOMENT (38) had improved massively for a step up to a mile and a half when streaking home in his maiden. And he confirmed that this is his distance with a big run here. He must have a great chance of taking a big handicap off this run.

TAKEOVER TARGET LOOKING GOOD FOR JULY CUP

My theory that Australian sprinters are the best on the planet received a boost when TAKEOVER TARGET (43) won the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

What I find interesting about Takeover Target's big win is that the ballpark speed ratings I've made for his Australia wins along with his raw times suggest strongly that he's actually at his best over a furlong longer. He broke the Doomben track record for six furlongs and came within four hundredths of a second of the 6.75 furlongs record at the same track. But the closest he's come to a five furlong track record in Australia was when he trailed the best time at Flemington for the distance by 1.3 seconds.

Takeover Target ran below his best when third in the Golden Jubilee a few days later. But this is in line with his previous form. His worst lifetime run in Australia came the only time he was rushed back to the races within a few days of his previous race.

It's worth bearing in mind that Takeover Target had training problems in 2005 during which time his record featured three lay-offs and six losses in a row. But he's now won 14 of his other 16 starts since 2003 with his latest loss being very excusable..

I would anticipate improvement on this effort from Takeover Target when he steps up to six furlongs for the July Cup. And that makes him look hard to beat.

I imagine that runner-up BENBAUN (43) won't be taking in the July Cup as he's so much better over this shorter distance. My read of his form is that he's a stuffy horse who needs plenty of racing. If you ignore his first two starts of the season and then only count races over five furlongs on fast ground where he's had a run within the last seventeen days you'll find that he's won six times out of eight. He's a Group 1 horse and deserves a group 1 win.

The three year old DANDY MAN (42) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse of his age so far this year to take a close fourth. He showed improved form here and ought logically to improve more as he gets older. I can see him winning a Group 1 over five furlongs on fast ground in the Autumn, and the most obvious target is the Abbaye.

YEATS VERY INTERESTING FOR MELBOURNE CUP

YEATS (38) didn't clock a great time to win the Gold Cup. But that's only because the early pace was slow. He earned a rating of 43 from me when taking the Coronation Cup last year and that's good enough to win very good races indeed.

Yeats showed here that he can beat smart horses at a long trip off a steady early gallop. This makes him look an ideal sort for the Melbourne Cup which is invariably run in just this way.

Poor Old REEFSCAPE (36) was once again compromised by the lack of early pace. He got outpaced as they kicked on out of Swinley Bottom and had tom come horribly wide for his run, getting bumped as he did so. He too could go down under for the Melbourne Cup but this race confirmed that he really does need a strong pace to produce his best.

SIR GERARD IS GROUP CLASS

It would have been interesting to see how SIR GERARD (38) would have fared if he'd run in the St James' Palace Stakes instead of the Britannia Handicap. My ratings indicate he'd have given Araafa a fight. He's certainly a very useful three year old miler at a time when there are very few of his sort around. He'd have won all four of his starts since his racecourse debut but for getting into all sorts of trouble last time when going under by a neck.

I imagine this is the end of handicapping for Sir Gerard. He will surely now have his attention turned to pattern races where he should do well.

WUNDERWOOD HAS A REAL CHANCE IN EBOR

There was talk of WUNDERWOOD (39) running in the Ebor a couple of years ago. But it wasn't until last week at Goodwood that he finally made the step up to the Ebor distance. He won well, earning a group class speed rating from me in the process. Now one is left to wonder what he might have done had he been jumped up in distance a long time ago.

Wunderwood had won four of the last five times he'd gone a mile and a half on fast ground on stiff tracks.. So clearly stamina is his strong point. Even though he's now seven years of age I've got to give him a serious chance of finally winning the Ebor. I'd also think hard about opposing him in a Cup race such as the Goodwood Cup.

HOH MIKE STILL THE TOP TWO YEAR OLD

None of the two year old races at Royal Ascot was particularly fast. The fastest was the Norfolk Stakes in which HOH MIKE (32) got himself into a ludicrous amount of traffic problems before finishing second.

Hoh Mike had earned Group 1 class speed ratings from me in his two previous starts and remains much the fastest two year old we've seen so far. The way that he finished here suggests that he will have no problems stepping up to six furlongs and might easily stay further. I won't hear of him getting beat in the July Stakes which is apparently his next target.

ARAAFA NOT SO SMART

This is a very odd season for three year olds. Almost all the talent seems to be concentrated in the middle-distance colts, especially the French ones. Galatee and Alexandrova apart, there haven't been any fast performances from the 3YO fillies. And, barring Dandy Man, we've seen pretty much nothing notable from either 3YO colts or fillies at a mile or less.

The trend continued in the St James' Palace Stakes which Araafa (38) won in Group 3 class time.

I don't like knocking a dual Group 1 winner, but the clock says Araafa and all the other three year old milers we've seen so far are slow. I find it hard to believe this will continue all season and expect to see better three year old milers emerge.

NANNINA NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BEAT OLDER COLTS

Nannina (38) won the Coronation Stakes in reasonable time. But she's going to have to improve massively to have a prayer against the older colts in races like the QEII. I can't recommend following her off this run as she is simply the joint best of a rather moderate bunch of three year old milers at this stage and four or five lengths behind the fastest older horses at the distance.

DAYS OF MY LIFE CAN WIN A BIG RACE

DAYS OF MY LIFE (37) broke the course record for 1m 100 yards when winning at Beverley last week. He won't be credited with the feat though because nobody adds the half second to old hand-clocked records as they should (half a second is the average difference between hand and electric times). This means that horses actually have to break old hand-timed records by more than half a second to get into the record books. I'd like to see the Australian system adopted where tracks show both the old hand-timed records and the new electrically timed ones.

In any event it's clear that Days Of My Life is an improving three year old. He clocked a Listed class time here despite being eased down at the finish and has earned successively bigger speed ratings from me in each of his six starts to date.

I think it's significant that the Beverley race was the greatest test of stamina Days Of My Life has yet faced. He's by the top middle distance horse Daylami out of a mare whose siblings by speedier sires than hers stayed middle distances three times out of five. His future entries are all over a mile, but I suspect he'll get ten furlongs without a problem. I see him as a likely big race winner in the near future.

SIEGFRIEDS NIGHT BETTER THAN A SUMMER JUMPER

SIEGFRIEDS NIGHT (37) is better than a Summer jumper judged on the time he ran at Southwell. Clearly he's been improved significantly for the step up to three miles. He can act on soft ground too, so I wouldn't bet on him fading away like most Summer Jump winners when the NH season proper begins in November.

Runner-up BURREN MOONSHINE (36) is also a decent staying hurdler and ought to win a couple of races at least during the Summer.

WAVERTREE WARRIOR SMART AROUND A TURN

WAVERTREE WARRIOR (38) clocked a Group 3 class time to win a hot seven furlong handicap at Sandown. His jockey said last time that he felt the horse didn't handle Epsom. But outside of that peculiar course Wavertree Lad has racked up an impressive record on turf in races run around a turn at seven furlongs and a mile. Since his two year old days he's won four times out of five in such races. His sole loss came when running second to Pride Of Nation who is Group 2 class according to my speed ratings

Wavertree Warrior has blanked in eight tries on straight courses but he looks capable of winning a big handicap or a Group race around a turn.

FORMAL DECREE CAN WIN A DECENT HANDICAP

FORMAL DECREE (36) blew home by six lengths in Listed class time to win a decent ten furlong handicap at Pontefract. Clearly he improved for the step up to ten furlongs, but I wouldn't go running away with the idea that because he has (GER) after his name he's certain to improve again over a mile and a half. His pedigree is basically a mix of British and French horses not the more stoutly bred German variety. His dam won over a mile and a half and is a full sister to three winners at 10-12f. Formal Decree's sire is the speedy Diktat, so I want to see him prove that he gets longer than the 10f of this race. He may well do so and he certainly looks a good prospect, though the eye-catching manner of his win means we won't get much of a price about him next time.

BAUER SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

BAUER (36) has a fair bit of stamina in his pedigree. His dam is a full sister to a 2m 5f steeplechase winner and a half to a 1m 7f winner on the flat. So it's not that surprising he improved for the step up to a mile and a half at Newbury. He won in Listed class time and now looks ludicrously well handicapped. I don't know if he goes for the King George V handicap at Royal Ascot, but that's the sort of race he now belongs in. I could even see him developing into a St Leger prospect if he improves a bit more over another two furlongs.

IRONY IS STILL USEFUL

IRONY (37) was a Group class horse at two and still retains plenty of ability now that he's seven. He made all the running to clock a decent time when winning a seven furlong handicap on the Polytrack at Kempton. His trainer says he's best going right-handed. I also suspect he's best in smaller fields. There were 13 runners here but two were always behind, so effectively it was an 11 horse race, and that's normally the cut-off point for horses that prefer small fields. Irony had won the most recent two times he'd gone right handed at a mile or less in fields of 11 or smaller. I'd bet on him winning again the next time or two he hits a field that's small enough for him to dominate from the front. In bigger fields he's usually forced to go too fast early to last home.

Runner-up REZZAGO (37) is lightly-raced for a six year old. He won three on the bounce last year and ran his fastest race when stepped up to seven furlongs here. He's seriously well handicapped according to my speed ratings so I'd bet on him winning a similar race soon.

STONEACRE LAD IS A PATTERN CLASS SPRINTER

STONEACRE LAD (37) clocked a time that would win most Listed races when scoring over the minimum distance at Leicester. He seems best in a small field, which means 11 runners for most horses. And it's interesting to note that he's now won four of the seven times he's gone five furlongs in fields of 11 or less. One of the losses was a race where he lost all chance when hampered at the start. The other two were contests where he got beat by Total Impact and Prince Tamino, two of the fastest three year old sprinters.

If he can be found another five furlongs sprint against his own age group in a small field Prince Tamino will be tough to beat. Even against older horses he'd be an interesting proposition.

BILLY ONE PUNCH CAN MAKE IT TWO

BILLY ONE PUNCH (35) showed tremendous improvement to win a moderate handicap in fast time at Folkestone. It was his first run beyond a mile and he obviously improved markedly for the step up in trip. He's a good deal faster than the average winner of the grade of handicaps he's currently eligible for, so I'd predict he'll be winning again soon.

WEE DINNS SHOULD KEEP ON WINNING

WEE DINNS (35) is an unusually fast novice hurdler for the off season. She won in decent time at Newton Abbot. So far she's only lost once in four starts over timber on fast ground (she doesn't seem to like soft). This was when she ran very green and lost by only a length at Newbury. It's going to take a decent horse to beat her, and there aren't many of those around over hurdles in Britain till November.

SATCHEM AND STRONGHOLD WORTH FOLLOWING

A Listed race for older horses at Goodwood last Saturday turned out to be a red hot contest. The first and second, SATCHEM (39) and STRONGHOLD (39) pulled seven lengths clear of their rivals in very fast time for the class. I rate both of them between Group 2 and Group 3 class off this run.

Satchem has already won a Group 3 and run fourth in a Group 1. It's perfectly possible that he can run a bit faster than this seeing that it was his first outing in a year. If he were mine I'd be forgetting about the Royal Hunt Cup and focusing on Group races at around a mile. Below Group 1 class he'll he hard to beat in such contests.

If the photo had gone the other way this would have been the fifth time Stronghold had won in fields smaller than twelve at trips short of ten furlongs. He's lost all four times he's run in bigger fields, so I suspect the Hunt Cup would be a bad idea for him as well. He too should be shooting for Group races at around a mile.

POSTAGE STAMPE DELIVERS

Galatee and Alexandrova excepted, there has been a dearth of good three year old middle-distance fillies across Europe this year. The normal classics and classic trials just haven't been producing the good performers like they usually do. So it's not that surprising we should find a pattern class three year old filly running away with a class 4 handicap on the Polytrack at Lingfield. The filly that did the job was POSTAGE STAMPE (37) who had won in similar style on her only previous start at two.

Clearly Postage Stampe is a whole lot better than a handicapper. She's at least Listed class off this run and deserves a chance to earn some black type soon. Meanwhile it would be understandable if her connections chose to exploit her still very lenient official handicap mark.

DUTCH ART HAS A DECENT SHOT IN THE NORFOLK

Very few two year olds have physiques good enough to earn the description 'good sort' from Raceform this early in the season. When they do they're usually worth following, and I think this will be the case with DUTCH ART (36) who won a good Novice Stakes at Windsor in a time that gives him a real shot of winning the Norfolk Stakes which is apparently his target.

DHANYATA IS ROYAL ASCOT CLASS

When a two year old filly runs the fastest time of the day at a top track this early in the season you should sit up and take notice. This is what DHANYATA (35) did when winning a Newbury maiden and the run suggests she's good enough to be worth a try at Royal Ascot. Her jockeys says that she hated the soft ground on her debut and that this explains her much improved effort on faster ground here.

Dhanyata is almost certainly not going to stay beyond six furlongs judged on her pedigree, but she's smart enough at shorter trips to take a Listed or Group 3 contest according to my ratings.

QUENCHED IS A SMART FILLY

QUENCHED (36) bombed home by over three lengths in fast time to take a ten furlong maiden at Lingfield. She's well bred and highly regarded by her connections who are convinced she'll get longer.

Quenched could be anything. My ratings indicate she's at least Listed class. The manner of her win suggests she may actually be a fair bit better than that. Certainly she is a great prospect.

FAIRMILE CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

FAIRMILE (38) won a hot ten furlong handicap on the Polytrack at Kempton in unusually fast time. He ought to be able to take a big handicap on this showing but I confess I find it hard to explain why he sometimes runs so poorly. The only obvious pattern I can see to his form is that he's won all three times he's been ridden by Adam Kirby and lost all seven times he's had another jockey on board. It's unusual for a jockey to make that much difference to a horse so I suspect some other factor will emerge once Fairmile has had more racing. Meanwhile I'd be wary of opposing him in his next few starts.

Runner-up TABADUL (37) prefers Polytrack to grass according to his trainer. Indeed he bolted up by five lengths the only other time he's tried the surface. Next time he runs on Polytrack he should be a good bet.

TI ADORA IS WELL HANDICAPPED

After TI ADORA (37) won three races in a row last term her trainer was talking about the possibility of her winning in Listed company. He should be entertaining such thoughts again after the filly won in very decent time at Nottingham.

Ti Adora has now won four of the five times she's run beyond ten furlongs following a recent run. She is very well handicapped at present, so I wouldn't oppose her in the class of races she's still eligible for. And if she does step up to Listed class I wouldn't dismiss her chances lightly. She's a useful filly at longer trips on fast ground.

SILVER DIP SHOULD WIN AGAIN

SILVER DIP (36) won a class 4 handicap at Thirsk in a time that suggests she'll soon be earning black type. Her dam was a Grade 1 winner at a mile as a two year old and her sire tends to get decent ten furlong horses, so I suspect that she'll be capable of winning over a furlong or three longer than the seven furlongs of this race.

HEZAAM IS MUCH BETTER THAN A SELLING PLATER

HEZAAM (34) is one of my favourite types of horses: One that wins a selling race in fast time. Punters are prejudiced against selling race form and oppose horses like Hezaam, however fast they ran, when they step up in class. This means we should get a very nice price about Hezaam next time.

Hezaam was a decent horse as a three year old, and it looks like he's on his way back.

QUITO DOES IT AGAIN

Quito (40) won the John O' Gaunt Stakes at Lingfield in a time that would give him a shot of finally winning a Group race even though he's now nine. The trouble is there are stacks of fast sprinters around in Britain.

Runner-up NEW SEEKER (39) is another old horse seeking a Group win and he looks a better proposition as he stays a mile and can therefore meet weaker competition. I'd like to see him go for the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes over a mile at Salisbury again. He finished third in the race last year, running fast enough to win most years.

SLOW EARLY PACE CASTS DOUBT ON DERBY FORM

The Derby was run at a remarkably slow pace this year. The field were just lobbing along in the early stages as if they had twice the distance to cover. The front runner, Dylan Thomas, didn’t even begin to pick up the pace till a full half mile from home, and it was only in the last two furlongs that the horses were really asked to run. This being so it was hardly surprising that the horse with the most speed and luck in running should win in what turned out to be a four way photo finish. That horse was Sir Percy (37).

I flat out don't believe that Sir Percy would have stayed the mile and a half in a truly run race. I'm also convinced that HALA BEK (37) would have beaten him had he not got involved in a barging match with VISINDAR (36) and then jinked badly to the right close home when looking certain to win.

The Derby is a race many of us look forward to for months. That it should be run and won in such a fashion by a horse such as Sir Percy does not make me happy.

As I see it the way to deal with the Derby is to treat Sir Percy as a freakishly lucky winner and bet against him with great confidence in future starts. There are many better horses around at middle distances according to my speed ratings. I'd also bet against Dylan Thomas ever running so well again in Group 1 company because he was incredibly fortunate to be able to dictate such a slow pace from the front.

The two horses to take out of the race as I see it are the moral winner Hala Bek and Visindar who has run faster than any of these rivals before and might well have done so again if he hadn't got unbalanced, been impeded by Hala Bek and had his chance compromised by the slow early pace.

ALEXANDROVA IS SPECIAL

ALEXANDROVA (41) ran a seriously fast Group 1 time for a three year old filly to take the Oaks by six lengths. You could argue she'd now be unbeaten in four tries beyond sprint trips but for losing ground at the start in one race and stumbling in another. But I strongly suspect it was the added distance that made the difference to her performance here.

Make no mistake, Alexandrova is one of the best fillies we've seen in years. This is not the last Group 1 she will win unless I'm much mistaken. She's fast enough to beat colts in Group 1 company on this showing.

It was a shame that Galatee was a late withdrawal from the Oaks due to a low blood count. She was vying for favouritism with Alexandrova at the time, and rightly so according to my speed ratings. My numbers say she has run every bit as quick as the Coolmore filly. It will be some race if both of these great fillies line up for the Irish Oaks.

REVERENCE DOES IT AGAIN

REVERENCE (41) had won five times out of five with cut in the ground over five furlongs before he ran in the Temple Stakes at Sandown. He made it six out of six with a clear cut win from a good field. The question now is does he really need yielding or softer ground or are his connections right in saying that with an uphill finish he's just as effective on fast ground? The answer is important because it determines what sort of chance Reverence will have next time out in the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Personally I'm inclined to believe Reverence will handle the likely faster surface at Ascot. After all, although his only loss at five furlongs came on fast ground he did go close in fast time despite being denied a clear run. In addition there's no strong evidence from his pedigree that his family generally needs a slow surface. Finally there is my belief, born of experience, that a genuinely top class horse usually manages ton find a way to cope with all sorts of conditions.

I've long suspected that Reverence could well be the best sprinter in training. So even if the ground is as fast as it normally is for Royal Ascot I'll be thinking long and hard before I oppose him in the Kings Stand.

SHIROCCO SHOULD SKIP THE KING GEORGE

SHIROCCO (41) beat the very smart OUIJA BAORD (40) to take the Coronation Cup. And there's no question he could have run faster if the early pace had been stronger. But I wouldn't go running away with the idea that he's a good proposition for the King George because he won on officially good ground here. The going allowances I make for my speed ratings tell me that Shirocco would be unlikely to show his best on the fast ground that the King George is invariably run on.

According to my going allowances Shirocco has actually run on ground faster than good three times despite what the official going reports have said. The first time was when he was a disappointing third in the top trial for the German Derby. The second was when he again ran below form to be third in the Grosser Preis von Baden. The third was when he again ran below his best to be fourth in the Arc. He's only lost twice on genuinely good or slower ground. The first was when he ran second on his racecourse debut. The second was when he ran third off a near one year lay off in his prep for the Arc.

On good or faster ground Shirocco is pretty much an unstoppable force. But on the kind of fast ground that normally prevails for the King George I'd be siding against him. In fact I rather doubt that he will run even though his connections say it's now a good possibility. His big objective is surely going to be the Arc which is normally run on his kind of ground.

Ouija Board is hard to fault and ran yet another big race to make Shirocco work for his win. However I'm not sure it's a great move to run her over ten furlongs in future. She's yet to win over the distance in Group company and has got going too late the last two times she's tried it. This being so I'd be inclined to oppose her if she goes for the Prince Of Wales' Stakes. I'd run her in the Hardwicke Stales over the extra two furlongs if she were mine.

ENFORCER (40) is a horse I've noted here before. He'd run a good race earlier this season when close up behind Manduro when that one broke the ten furlong course record at Longchamp. He ran well again to finish a good third to the two multiple Group 1 winners and will surely win another Group race soon.

ACE (38) didn't run a bad race at all to finish fourth given the distance and the ground. He managed to place twice over a mile and a half in America, where longer distance races are always run at a crawl in the early stages. But I just don't think he stays this far in European conditions. His best form has been at ten furlongs on fast ground. I'm not worried about the fact Ace has now lost all ten Group 1 races that he's contested. If he takes up his entry in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes and the ground is as fast as it normally is at Royal Ascot I'd give him a big chance of scoring over the shorter trip.

TANZANITE NEEDS A TURN NOT SOFT GROUND

SPECTAIT (36) looked a good thing to take a handicap at Sandown after his big win at Kempton. But he ran below form to finish second. Perhaps he 'bounced' off that fast Kempton run (the 'bounce' theory is right according to my research - a really fast race can knock a horse off form if it isn't rested for 28 days or more). It's also possible he didn't handle the soft ground. In any event he's still worth following I reckon because he ran a Group 2 class time at Kempton.

The winner TANZANITE (39) is pretty darned smart anyway. She too clocked a time that would win many Group 2 races to win in very good style. Most pundits, along with her connections, attributed Tanzanite's return to form to the soft ground. I'm far from convinced this is the case. The going allowances I make for my speed ratings reveal that two of her best wins have been on ground that was actually good to firm.

As I see it, the key to Tanzanite is the distance and the track layout. I reckon she's at her best over a mile around a turn on a galloping course. She's won three times out of four in such circumstances with her sole loss being a second place finish in a slow run race where she pulled too hard for her own good. Her record on tight and straight courses shows no wins in 14 tries. Yes she did win once at a mile and a quarter but that was in a slow run race. I don't think she stays that far in a truly run race.

Unfortunately most of the big mile handicaps are on straight or tight courses. But when Tanzanite returns to a galloping course around a turn at a mile I'd be wary of opposing her whatever the going. If she were mine I'd be shooting for Group races with her.

HINTERLAND HAS A BIG CHANCE ON THE WOLFERTON STAKES

HINTERLAND (39) won a red hot handicap on the Derby card at Epsom in Group class time. It was the third win from four starts for this very promising colt. On the clock he has a great chance of taking the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot which will apparently be his next race. The one slight concern I have is that so far all his runs have been on genuinely good ground. He's had chips removed from his right knee and I just wonder if he'll be able to handle the likely firmer ground at Ascot. He'll probably be okay and certainly looks likely to take a pattern race soon.

DAVENPORT IS SMART IN MUD

DAVENPORT (37) earned a Listed class speed rating from me to take a hot little mile handicap at Sandown. He's now run five times on yielding or softer ground following a recent run and won four times. His only loss was a second place finish last time out to Trafalgar Square who now begins to look rather interesting.

MASTER OF THE RACE (37) maintained his record of finishing second on all of his starts, but I don't think he'll be keeping it if he sticks to this sort of class. He's much faster than the average winner of the class of race he's eligible for.

BARATHEA DREAMS (36) was unlucky to come up against two such smart horses in a class 4 contest. He seems to hate fast ground. So far he's run on turf faster than good eleven times according to the going allowances I make for my speed ratings, and he's run unplaced every single time. On soft ground though he is a very smart horse. So far he's run on what I rate yielding or softer ground five times and won three. One of the losses was at Redcar a couple of runs back off a near six month break when Raceform noted that he looked backward in his coat. This was his other defeat and it was a very decent effort. He'll surely go close next time he gets his ground.

PRESSURE PUTT CAN WIN AGAIN

PRESSURE PUTT (36) won in unusually fast time for a 3YO class 4 handicap at Musselburgh. He's now won all three times he's encountered fast going on turf since losing his racecourse debut and looks likely to win again. My ratings say he's a good deal better than this class.