IVY CREEK CAN WIN A GROUP 1

It's been a decade since Geoff Wragg trained a Group 1 winner. But I strongly suspect that IVY CREEK (40) is going to change that situation before the season is out. He impressed me tremendously when winning a red hot renewal of the Pontefract Castle Stakes.

Ivy Creek was outpaced when the field first kicked for home but then picked up in very good style as his obvious stamina came into play to run down the St Leger runner up THE GEEZER (39) and surge ahead inside the last furlong.

Watching this strong, handsome horse power ahead I gained the clear impression that he was capable of running faster still. The big question, as far as his future stud value is concerned, is whether he'll be able to make a successful transition to Group 1 company over a trip as short as 12 furlongs. Here he was stretched by the trip even though the race took place on one of Britain's stiffest tracks and on yielding ground. There has to be a suspicion that, like his half brother Distinction, he won't be effective in Group 1 company until he steps up to longer distances.

Then again it may be that Ivy Creek simply needs a bit of cut in the ground. After all, he's won four times out of five on going that I rate genuinely good or slower, his sole loss being a very unlucky neck defeat in the Dee Stakes. He's lost all three times he's run on faster ground.

If he were mine I'd be aiming Ivy Creek at the Grosser Preis von Baden, a race that features yielding ground more often than not. The Canadian International also looks attractive for the same reason. Logically he should be rested over the Summer while the firm ground prevails.

I imagine that Godolphin have the Irish St Leger in mind for The Geezer. But the fact is this is as fast as he's ever run, and that's a bit shy of Group 1 class. Therefore the race I'd be shooting for is the Melbourne Cup where The Geezer could exploit the gap that exists between Australian and European stayers in the same way that their sprinters exploit the gap that exists between their five and six furlong runners and ours.

DANDY MAN DESERVES A GROUP 1 WIN

I have never struggled to understand the time of a race as much as the 57.44 seconds supposedly

clocked by MISS ANDRETTI (45) for the five furlongs of the King's Stand Stakes. This beat the previous course record by an impossible 2.35 seconds and was fantastically out of line with all the other times clocked at Ascot on that day and all the others. I've had to conclude that either the distance or the time was wrong or an unreported but freakishly strong tailwind prevailed for just this one race. I've rated her time as being a second slower as this makes so much sense.

In any event, Miss Andretti proved yet again that the Australia sprinters are better than the Europeans. She was probably feeling the effects of the race when flopping in the Golden Jubilee a few days later, just as her trainer warned might happen (as James Willoughby of the Racing Post noted, she's now lost all four times she's returned to the races off a break less than two weeks).

Hopefully Miss Andretti will bounce back in the July Cup which comes 20 days after her last run. She deserves to win that race as she's clearly the best sprinter on the planet.

The Aussies filled three of the first four places. But what was remarkable is that DANDY MAN (42) managed to break up the Australians by finishing second - and from an unfavourable draw to boot. Indeed, if the race had been restricted to Europeans only he'd have won by two and a quarter lengths and have smashed the course record.

Dandy Man looks a big player in any five furlong race on fast ground that he contests. The obvious target for him is the world's most valuable five furlong race, the Hong Kong Sprint in December. He's virtually certain to get his ground in that race. Meanwhile, if it comes up firm for the Nunthorpe or the Abbaye he'll be the one to beat.

ENTICING (39) had won all four of her previous starts on fast ground and earned the biggest speed rating I've given a sprinter all season when earning a rating of 43 for her win at Bath. But she was being asked a huge question for a three year old filly here and did very well to finish fifth of 20. She was actually finishing very well, raising the possibility that she may well get six furlongs.

This experience should bring Enticing on. Next time she tackles Group 1 company it won't be such a shock to her system and she should improve if she gets fast ground. I'd be wary of betting anything bar Dandy Man or the Aussies against her in those circumstances.

HENRY CAN NAVIGATE HIS WAY TO A GROUP 1 WIN

The cut back to six furlongs was always going to be a bit of a struggle for HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (37). But he still managed to win the Coventry in fast time for Coolmore.

The stats show that whenever Aiden O'Brien wins with a two year old over seven furlongs this early in the season it turns out to be a Group 1 horse more often than not. I've little doubt this will prove the case with Henrythenavigator when he goes back up to the trip he won over at Gowran Park.

GEORGE WASHINGTON LOOKING GOOD FOR THE ECLIPSE

RAMONTI (42) won a red hot renewal of the Queen Anne in fast time and is obviously one of the very best milers. But it's also clear he can stay longer. After all he was second by a head in the Italian Derby.

In this race Ramonti got a bit chopped for speed when the pace picked up but rallied to get back in front again, providing more evidence that he really wants to go up to ten furlongs.

It's a shame Godolphin pulled Ramonti out of the Eclipse the next day after suggesting he might well go for the race. He's now won nine of the eleven times he's run on officially good or faster ground and run big races in his only two defeats. Over ten furlongs I suspect he'll be very tough to beat.

JEREMY (42) ran his fastest ever race to take second and has clearly improved from three to four. He only just gets the mile and it now seems likely he doesn't quite get the trip when there's cut in the ground. On fast ground I'd be wary of opposing him over a mile. And at seven furlongs I'd bet him to beat just about anything on any going.

Third placed TURTLE BOWL (42) is one of the most versatile horses running at the top level. He's run huge races in ten of his last eleven starts on every sort of surface, including the AW and at distance from eight to ten furlongs. He's already won a Group 1 and I see him winning another before long.

Smart as the first three are, the horse to take out of the race just has to be GEORGE WASHINGTON (42) who ran a fantastic race for a horse coming back from stud duties. He showed signs of the lay-off both before and during the race, pulling hard on the way down and in the early stages. But the rally he staged in the last furlong was something to see. He fairly stormed home and would have got up with another couple of strides.

I suspect that George Washington has strengthened up over the Winter and will now prefer ten furlongs to a mile. Certainly he looks to have a great chance in the Eclipse Stakes which will surely be his next outing. The last seven winners of the Eclipse Stakes all won or went close in a Group 1 race previously that same season over less than ten furlongs. If George Washington lines up he will be the only runner with such credentials in this year's race.

I imagine that the Coolmore boys have their hearts set on another shot at the Breeders' Cup Classic. George Washington ran well in that race last year. With another year on his back I think he'll go even better this time.

CESARE (41) ran a big race to finish a close fifth in what was one of the best mile races we've seen in recent seasons. He's quick enough to take a Group 1 on my ratings.

HUGE RUN BY SILKWOOD

This is turning out to be a terrific year for three year old fillies. And we saw another very smart female member of the Classic generation when SILKWOOD (40) romped home in a very fast renewal of the Ribblesdale Stakes.

Silkwood must have fast ground apparently as she is such a fluent mover. This is why she was taken out of the Oaks. I imagine it's also why she suffered her only defeat when second on the slowest of Britain's three Polytrack surfaces at Kempton.

No doubt the objective now will be to gain the Group 1 win Silkwood's talent merits. I imagine that will involve a shot at the Yorkshire Oaks where hopefully she'll have a showdown with Light Shift. After that it would be interesting to see Silkwood go for the St Leger. She's good enough to win that race.

INDIAN INK COULD WIN QEII IN MUD

INDIAN INK (41) is clearly a much better horse on yielding or softer ground and proved it by running away from a very strong field in the Coronation Stakes. Her only loss in four starts when she's had cut in the ground was a half length defeat early in her career. She actually ran fast enough to win something like the QEII here and is going to be very dangerous whenever she gets her ground.

COULD MAHLER REPLACE YEATS?

MAHLER (40) earned the biggest speed rating I can recall giving to a Queen's Vase winner. Normally the winner of the race disappears off the Group race radar. But I doubt this will happen to Mahler. Indeed i can see him developing into an able replacement for his stablemate Yeats next year. Having said that I would urge caution to anyone thinking of betting Mahler ante-post for the St Leger. Nowadays that race tends to be slow run and favours middle distance horses. Since 1989 there have been 59 St Leger runners that previously ran beyond a mile and a half and they all lost.

MUD DOES IT FOR SOLDIER'S TALE

SOLDIER'S TALE (43) produced a tremendous performance to run down the brilliant Australian sprinter TAKEOVER TARGET (43) in the Golden Jubilee Stakes. But I strongly suspect that he can only run this fast when there's cut in the ground as there was here. He's had a litany of physical problems and I'd be inclined to oppose him unless it came up yielding or soft in the July Cup.

I'M NOT YET CONVINCED BY MANDURO

Andre Fabre has done very well indeed with the horses sent to him by the top German stud farms, most notably with Hurricane Run. Now he seems to have another star on his hands from Germany in Manduro (40). The horse won his second Group 1 in a row when taking the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. But I have to say I'm not yet convinced by Manduro. He hasn't run a proper Group 1 time by my estimates in ten starts since he took the Prix D'Harcourt last year.

My ratings say that the runner up DYLAN THOMAS (39) ran below the form he showed when winning the Prix Ganay. And I confess I don't know why. My gut feel on watching the race is that he's such a big strong horse he really wants longer than ten furlongs.

Notnowcato (36) understandably was below his best as he so clearly prefers cut in the ground. But I have to say RED ROCKS (35) was really disappointing. It now seems likely that he needs every inch of a mile and a half unless he gets soft ground or a really stiff track. I still give him a good shot in the King George.

HERON BAY AND FILIOS ARE VERY SMART 3YO'S

The King George V Handicap is invariably a red hot race, and this year's renewal was no exception. The first and second, HERON BAY (40) and FILIOS (40) powered clear of the rest to earn speed ratings that would have earned them a place in the Epsom Derby.

Heron Bay apparently heads for the Gordon Stakes, which he should win on my ratings. Then he may have a shot at the St Leger. I imagine that Luca Cumani will end up targeting the final Classic with Filios as well. But, knowing Cumani, I rather suspect he is mulling over the idea of going for the Ebor before that. Filios would have a major chance in that race on my ratings.

SAMIRA GOLD CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

Not all the fast performances came at Royal Ascot last week. SAMIRA GOLD (37) clocked a time at Ayr which indicates she would have had a serious chance at the big meeting.

Samira Gold only had two behind her with three furlongs to run but surged through to lead without much effort and cruised clear under hands and heels riding. The further they went the better she looked.

Gold Away, the sire of Samira Gold, has yet to produce a decent horse beyond ten furlongs. But her dam's only other foal is (an admittedly bad) 12 furlong performer in France. There's a fair bit of stamina on the dam's side too. And Samira Gold is certainly built for twelve furlongs, being deep-chested and having plenty of strength. In this race she looked a little uncomfortable with the strong early pace and only began to dominate when her stamina kicked in. So I suspect she will stay just as well as her sibling. This means she is shaping up as Luca Cumani's prime candidate for the Galtres Stakes at York in August. Cumani has a great record in that race. Before it he will no doubt find an opportunity for Samira Gold to extend her unbeaten record to three. I would certainly be very wary of opposing this filly next time.

BAILIEBOROUGH MUST WIN SOON

I've mentioned before that EUROPEAN DREAM (37) is a very hard horse to beat on his local tracks when the going is yielding or faster. He proved it again when winning a hot little handicap at Redcar - extending his unbeaten run at local tracks on what I rate yielding or faster ground to six.

European Dream's trainer, Richard Guest, said after the race that the horse is a bad traveler just as I suspected. But he has a plan for overcoming this problem when it comes to the horse's big target, the Cambridgeshire. He will take him down to his brother, Rae Guest's stables three weeks before the big race. Guest also added that he took him out of the Hunt Cup because he felt the ground was too firm for European Dream. So it may be I'm wrong about the horse not handling genuinely soft ground.

Bailieborough did well to run such a smart horse to a neck. He pulled five lengths clear of the rest too, running yet another big race without winning.

Last year Bailieborough was claimed by Brian Ellison who identified and fixed a back problem the horse had. Since then, barring a couple of sub par runs, the horse has run with remarkable consistency. In his last four runs he's run close to very smart handicappers and deserves a change of luck. He can't keep on bumping into such smart rivals and must win soon.

DASH TO THE FRONT IS A VERY SMART FILLY

Watch the video of the Warwickshire Oaks and you'll see something that rarely occurs in a pattern race; one horse is clearly going a great deal better than any of her rivals right from the start despite a strong early gallop. The horse in question is DASH TO THE FRONT (37) who moved ominously well in the early stages before being asked to join issue as most of the runners swung wide to take the stands rail into the straight.

Dash To The Front had to be driven along for about a hundred yards before she started to surge clear of her rivals. But as they got into the final furlong she was really asserting and fairly blasting away from her rivals. She ended up winning full of run with her ears pricked and I got the strong impression that it was only because the race was just shy of eleven furlongs rather than twelve or more that she had that brief spot of trouble before putting her rivals away.

You could argue that it was the soft ground that improved Dash To The Front. But actually I only rated it good to soft and I see nothing in her pedigree or stride pattern to suggest she needs cut in the ground. It seems to me it was the step up in distance that helped Dash To The Front and that she'll almost certainly improve again when she goes a mile and a half or more.

Dash To The Front's half sister Dash To The Top was one of the fastest fillies in recent years according to my speed ratings and was unlucky not to have won a Group 1. It could very well be that Dash To The Front will prove as good over longer trips.

LAA RAYB BELONGS IN GROUP COMPANY

LAA RAYB (37) won a Sandown handicap over a mile in what is Group class time for a three year old at this stage of the season. It's therefore pretty amazing that he managed to lose his previous start in a similar contest - until you watch the video of the race. This shows that he was really tanking along in the early stages and would probably not have settled if Magic Mountain hadn't set such a scorching early pace. In addition his ears were twirling this way and that throughout the contest, a sure sign of greenness. And when he got clear he made a bee-line for the safety of the running rail - again, a clear indication of inexperience.

Laa Rayb hung first time out and pulled hard on his second run. But my research shows that horses gradually evolve out of such behaviour as they gain experience. The fact that Laa Rayb was able to run so fast shows that is already beginning to happen with him.

Trainer Mark Johnston said after the race that he wished Laa Rayb had been qualified for the Britannia Handicap and that he regretted not putting him in the Jersey Stakes which was his original intention till his sub-par effort on his previous run. On reflection I suspect he'll agree that Laa Rayb probably got more out of this race as jockey Joe Fanning managed to keep him pretty organised and taught him to run straight when expending maximum effort by letting him go towards the running rail. It didn't look pretty but I think Fanning did a terrific job and the horse is going to benefit.

The two obvious immediate targets for Laa Rayb are the Prix Jean Prat in France and the International Stakes, the big mile handicap at Ascot for three year olds. The Prix Jean Prat is tempting because the French 3YO milers look to be so weak this year. But it's still a Group 1 race and it's probably a bit too early to throw Laa Rayb into that class. The International Stakes looks a better idea. Personally though I'd prefer holding off until Glorious Goodwood and shooting for the big seven furlong 3YO handicap at that meeting. Laa Rayb would be more sure to settle at the stronger pace of the shorter race.

Wherever he goes next Laa Rayb will merit serious consideration as he is clearly a horse with real potential. The only caveat is that almost all the winners scored by him and his illustrious relatives have come on fast ground.

BLACK CHARMER LIKELY TO WIN A BIG HANDICAP

BLACK CHARMER (38) was placed in thee Group races as a juvenile but obviously had some sort of a problem last year as he only made it to the races very late in the season when he managed just a handful of races.

I'm not sure why Black Charmer was gelded during the Winter It could be to address behavioral issues. More likely it was because he's a great big horse and his connections wanted to avoid him growing a stallion's crest, i.e. thickening up heavily over the neck and withers which causes a horse to have much more weight up front and hit the ground harder.

Black Charmer already seems to have problems with firm ground. Raceform reported that he did not stride out freely on the way to the post on firm ground on his second start this year. But he went close in a red hot Listed race at York on his seasonal debut with a bit of cut in the ground and stormed home at Sandown on a similar surface last week. The time he clocked was Group class. So I'd say trainer Mark Johnston is right to say Black Charmer is back to his two year old form.

The plan is now the Royal Hunt Cup apparently. But unless the rains arrive I'm going to be dubious about Black Charmer's chances there. I want to see him prove that he handles fast ground now that he's older. My suspicion is that we won't see the best of him until the going softens up again in the Autumn. At that time I see him winning a big handicap.

SAKHEE'S SECRET DOES IT AGAIN

SAKHEE'S SECRET (40) won by a wide margin for the third time in a row at Salisbury and is clearly a very progressive young sprinter. He needs time between his runs according to his trainer, so I rather wonder if the July Cup might not come a bit too soon for him.

Three year olds don't run much faster than this in the first half of the season. Therefore I'd venture that Sakhee's Secret is going to prove competitive in Group 1 company eventually, even if it isn't next time out.

DOES MACHINIST LIKE A RAIL?

Ireland, France, Germany and Italy only ever have a handful of Group class older sprinters. But Britain must have had a hundred or more every season for as far back as I can remember. I wish I knew why. But I confess I just can't explain why Britain has such a huge numerical edge in five and six furlong races and not at longer distances.

MACHINIST (38) has been running times that would win Group sprints outside of Britain for years and did so again when scoring at Hamilton last week. He was always going best and kept moving strongly to draw clear in the last furlong. As he got clear of the other runners he started to drift noticeably towards the running rail, and I rather wonder whether this might not give us a clue to deciphering his form.

My theory with Machinist is that he can occasionally win lower grade handicaps like the one at Hamilton by outclassing his rivals but that in higher class contests he needs to be drawn close to a rail to produce his best form.

In this regard I note with interest that if you restrict attention to races of class 2 or higher Machinist has won the last three times he's run on a straight course on good or faster ground when assigned one of the two highest or lowest draws. He's lost all 12 times he's run in such races from other draw positions.

I could be wrong of course. But I'll be very interested in Machinist's chances the next time he runs close to a rail in a big handicap.

GREAT CHARACTER CAN SET UP A SEQUENCE

You don't see many fast times in Summer Jumps races in Britain, especially from horses with official handicap marks of 100. So the pattern class time clocked by GREAT CHARACTER (36) when he hosed up at Uttoxeter looks highly significant.

Great Character has improved massively with each start since joining Julian Smith. So at this stage it is hard to say exactly what his requirements are. It may be that he needs the soft going he ran on here. But his previous form suggests this is unlikely. Therefore, seeing that there are plenty of races for him where he will be much faster than the average winner in the class, I have to say that I reckon he's going to set up a sequence of wins before being forced into higher grade.

RAYMI COYA IS PATTERN CLASS

RAYMI COYA (34) ran a pattern class time to win on her debut at Lingfield. She's one of the fastest juvenile fillies we've seen out so far and would not have been out of place in the Queen Mary on my speed ratings.

I doubt that Raymi Coya is going to be anything but a sprinter. Her dam's two previous foals to race both ran in America where all six wins that they scored were over six furlongs - five of them in low grade claiming races and all of them on dirt. Still, she deserves a shot at black type now. And the sooner the better, as we normally see faster juveniles running from August onwards.

REGAL STEP LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT IN THE QUEEN MARY

Trainer Robert Cowell says that REGAL STEP (33) may well be the best horse he's ever trained. She was certainly most impressive when scoring on her debut at Nottingham.

Regal Step was soon leading at a scorching pace. And it was easy to see why Cowell says he has to work her with his best older sprinters at home. Within two furlongs all her rivals were being scrubbed along in a vain effort to try and keep tabs on her.

All through the race Regal Step looked decidedly green. Her ears were going this way and that and she had her head raised slightly, giving her that goofy luck you'll often see on very inexperienced horses. Despite this when her jockey asked her to go about her business with a furlong to run she really opened up on her rivals, quickly lengthening clear. In fact I got the impression that if she'd been asked for maximum effort earlier and not run a bit green she'd have won by a length or two more. What makes this amazing is that she already earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a two year old this season.

Regal Step is a good-bodied, mature sort. She's actually built more like a colt. Her pedigree and the way she ran indicate she'll have no problem getting six furlongs, perhaps more. Meanwhile though she will stick to five for the Queen Mary where she looks tough to beat.

FLEETING SPIRIT IS PATTERN CLASS

It would have been very interesting to see how FLEETING SPIRIT (32) might have fared against Regal Step if they'd both run in the same division of the maiden at Nottingham. The clock says Fleeting Spirit would have run second as she ran just shy of a length slower. In addition Fleeting Spirit seemed to have less in hand and won off a slower early pace. Nonetheless she is clearly a very speedy filly who looks set to be a player in the Queen Mary or Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Fleeting Spirit has the build of a five furlong horse. It's possible she'll get six later on but I'd want her to prove it first.

ALFIE FLITS LOOKS A GOOD THING FOR CURRAGH CUP

BALKAN KNIGHT (41) has earned good Group 2 class speed ratings from me on several occasions and did so again when winning a hot Listed race at Musselburgh last week.

Balkan Knight has done all his winning since his maiden success as a two year old on tracks with run-ins of half a mile or more. His trainer says he doesn't stay two and a half miles and I rather wonder whether he truly gets two miles. I suspect that the fourteen furlongs of the Mussleburgh race is his optimum distance. He may only be effective over shorter trips on stiff tracks or on yielding or softer ground. At what seems to be his best trip or over shorter on stiff tracks or yielding or softer ground he has won five times out of ten when he's had a homestraight of half a mile or more. He was second in four of his losses. Three of the seconds were photo finish defeats and his trainer blames this on the fact he tends to pull himself up when he hits the front.

Clearly Balkan Knight is a bit tricky to place, though I'd be wary of opposing him when he hits his preferred circumstances.

Runner-up ALFIE FLITS (41) is a couple of years younger than Balkan Knight and looks a good deal easier to win with. He's no good over ten furlongs or less and needs cut in the ground or a stiff track to be effective at a mile and a half. But he's obviously a very smart horse over a mile and three quarters or more.

This was the first time that Alfie Flits has run beyond a mile and a half under flat rules and it clearly suits him becasue he ran far and away his fastest ever race.

If Alfie Flits goes for the Curragh Cup over a mile and three quarters on June 30th I would not dream of opposing him. In fact I reckon he's going to be one of the key players in the Irish St Leger over the same course and distance later in the season.

DUNELIGHT SHOULD WIN GROUP RACES

It's tough for a front runner to win valuable handicaps as the fields are so big they inevitably get taken on for the lead and are forced to go too fast in the early stages. This being so it's hardly surprising that the connections of DUNELIGHT (38) were reluctant to commit the horse to the Royal Hunt Cup after his impressive win in Listed company at Goodwood last week. After all he finished stone last in the Cambridgeshire and only twelfth in the Britannia Handicap the only two times he's been asked to run in huge fields before. There's no good reason to think it would be any different in the Royal Hunt Cup.

Trainer Clive Cox says that Dunelight did so well over the Winter from three to four that he needed his first two runs. Nonetheless he still managed to run third to Cesare in what I rated one of the fastest races run in Europe this year last time out. Prior to that he'd won three of his six runs at a mile or more outside of the huge fields he faced in the Cambridgeshire and the Britannia Handicap. One of his losses was a good second to Dark Islander who won a Grade 2 in America soon after. Another was a half length defeat by the brilliant Spectait when that one broke the track record for a mile at Goodwood. The other was a half length defeat by multiple Group 1 placed Ivan Denisovich at the Curragh.

Dunelight routinely earns Group class speed ratings from me. And I'd say he'll do far better if moving up to Group class than he would by lugging big weights in valuable handicaps where he'll get taken on for the lead.

CHARLIE COOL IS A GROUP 2 HORSE, ON THE LEVEL

Connections attributed the improved form CHARLIE COOL (40) showed to win at Nottingham last week to the visor that he wore for the first time. I'm rather doubtful about their explanation. My research shows that blinkers and visors tend to have a negative effect on performance. Horses win with them less often first time they wear them not more.

Charlie Cool's connections also say he needs a strong gallop to produce his best. This seems right. But I would add that it is only on a dead flat track that the horses go a strong gallop throughout. On undulating courses the horses have to slow down every time they go up or down a hill and then accelerate again when they meet level ground. It looks like this doesn't suit Charlie Cool as he has now lost all six times he's run on anything but a dead flat track.

On level turf courses however Charlie Cool has now won four times out of six when he's had a run within the last five weeks. One of his losses was a second place finish in a 100,000 pound handicap. The other was fourth in a slow run race where he got caught flat-footed when the pace quickened.

The major reconstruction work on Ascot has flattened out the gradients to some extent. But it is still not a dead flat course. So I'm inclined to believe that Charlie Cool will once more run below form in the Royal Hunt Cup if, as seems likely, he goes that route.

This win was the second occasion that Charlie Cool has earned a speed rating from me that would give him a shot in Group 2 company (he also earned a rating of 40 in Dubai). There are stacks of pattern races on dead flat tracks at Charlie Cool's distance range of 8-10 furlongs after the Royal Hunt Cup. I think Charlie Cool will be much better suited to such races rather than valuable handicaps as he's not that big and has had trouble with traffic in big fields in the past. Indeed, three of this four wins have come in single figure fields and he tends to have to make his run down the wide outside to avoid having to fight his way through horses.

Runner-up SHUMOOKH (38) is another horse that has earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me in the past. He set a searching pace and looked to have his rivals cooked as he kicked clear with a quarter of a mile to go. Then, inside the final furlong, his long, flowing stride started to shorten, allowing Charlie Cool to surge past.

This was a very satisfactory seasonal debut by Shumookh. I see him running a good race in the Royal Hunt Cup before stepping up to pattern company where I'd bet on him winning in Group company over a mile.

I'd bet on HINTERLAND (36) running well in the Royal Hunt Cup before taking Group races too. He chased the searching early pace set by Shumookh before looking to blow up through lack of fitness on his first run in four months. He's run just as fast as the first two and ran fourth in the Hunt Cup last year.

KING OF ARGOS HAS A FAIR SHOT IN HUNT CUP

KING OF ARGOS (37) is just the sort of horse that wins the Royal Hunt Cup; lightly-raced and progressive. He certainly has the turn of foot that wins most big handicaps. He showed this when getting up late to score at Goodwood last week - having had to be extricated from behind a wall of horses with two furlongs to run.

King Of Argos has now won all three times he has run on good to firm or firmer turf. If he gets his ground and a good draw in the big race at Ascot I'd take his chances very seriously. The stats show that a good draw means one of the lowest 10 or highest five positions. Horses running from these slots have won 14 of the last 17 runnings of the race when it's been at Ascot.

Runner-up AUDIENCE (37) seems to excel in single figure fields and should be able to win a race soon as field sizes tend to shrink as the ground firms up during the Summer.

LADY GRACE CAN WIN A LISTED RACE AT 7F

LADY GRACE (36) won a Conditions race at Leicester in a time that suggests she'll be able to win in Listed company.

Clearly Lady Grace is smart. But I think the seven furlongs of the Leicester race is going to prove her optimum trip. True she has won at a mile. However that was on the Polytrack, and all Polytrack races are basically three furlong sprints to the line whatever the distance. On grass Lady Grace has yet to win at more than seven furlongs. This is in line with her pedigree. The seven wins scored by her dam's other foals, all the wins by her sire and the best runs of her dam were over seven furlongs or less.

Nonetheless, despite the likely distance restriction, Lady Grace won this race easing up and is probably capable of running quicker. So I'll be looking for her to win a seven furlong Listed race or maybe even a Group 3 sometime before the end of the season.

HATTA FORT UP TO ROYAL ASCOT STANDARD - JUST

This has been a truly dreadful season so far for two year olds. But HATTA FORT (34) just about squeaked into the normal range ro a Royal Ascot juvenile when winning at Windsor. He's bred to go a fair bit longer and runs that way too. Right now though he's going to be kept to five furlongs and aimed at the Windsor Castle Stakes. He'll probably enter that race as the fastest runner on my speed ratings so I must give him a decent shot of taking it.

YAKIMOV CAN WIN AGAIN

The most interesting horses from a speed rating standpoint are older ones that suddenly jump up to show improved form like YAKIMOV (37) did when winning at Southwell last week. Punters are generally unwilling to believe that an older horse, in this case an eight year old, won't simply revert to it's previous level of form. They tend to treat the fast run as a fluke and this creates serious betting value.

I readily concede that I don't know exactly why Yakimov won in such fast time. But I strongly suspect it has something to do with the one year lay-off that he returned from on his previous start. I'd speculate that he had some sort of leg problem that was fixed up during his absence.

Yakimov's trainer has expressed concerns about the horse's ability to act on a firm surface before. And although he's won on such a surface it is surely significant that his two comeback runs have been on Southwell's deep Fibresand - a surface that is very easy on a horse's legs. This being so it might well be that Kayimov now needs Fibresand or yielding or softer turf to produce his best. So if he proceeds to run poorly on fast turf or Polytrack next time I'd be wary of writing him off. When he returns to Fibresand or gets some cut in the ground he'd probably return to form.

In any event, whatever the surface he runs on next time, I'd be rather interested in Yakimov's chances.

ISHETOO STILL AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

ISHETOO (37) was apparently impossible to train as a two year old because of sore shins. But as a three year old he's proved unstoppable and has improved with every start. He's now won all three of his starts in 2007, the latest of them in pattern class time at Haydock. Clearly he's a useful sprinter. And, thanks to his dreadful two year old form, he started of on a low enough official mark to be still ahead of the handicapper. I'd expect him to win a couple of more times this term, very likely in much better company.

CARTIMANDUA HAS BIG CHANCE AT YORK NEXT MONTH

I don't like mentioning British sprinters as there are so many fast ones it's tough for them to win very often. However CARTIMANDUA (38) merits attention because she won the Cecil Frail Stakes at Haydock in a time that suggests she'll be hard to beat over six furlongs against her own sex.

Cartimandua's trainer expressed the belief that his charge would be able to win in Group company. My ratings say he's right, as long as she runs against her own sex. The only trouble is there is just one remaining European Group race over her distance which is restricted to fillies. This is the Summer Stakes at York next month which must clearly be her big target. On this run she deserves to be favourite for that contest.

LIGHT SHIFT MUCH FASTER THAN THE AVERAGE OAKS WINNER

Very often the winner of the Oaks disappears off the big race radar soon after winning the Epsom Classic. But I very much doubt that will be the case this year as the LIGHT SHIFT (40) clocked an exceptionally good time to take the contest.

The acceleration that Light Shift showed to take the lead and the second burst she used to repel PEEPING FAWN (40) as the pair surged clear mark her out as a very good filly indeed. To be able to make two big moves like that towards the end of a strongly run race over a mile and a half says a lot about her qualities.

Trainer Henry Cecil is a traditionalist. So I imagine he'll be keeping Light Shift to races against her own sex. But if she were mine I'd be seriously thinking about taking on the colts with Light Shift in the King George or better still the Arc (which she would need to be supplemented for). She's that good.

Peeping Fawn hung in the closing stages but I don't think this affected her finishing position. When her finishing burst took her upsides Light Shift that filly simply kicked on again to hold her.

Seeing the way that Light Shift so readily took Peeping Fawn's best shot and turned her away I have serious doubts that the Coolmore filly will be able to turn the tables on Cecil's charge. In fact, if she were mine, I'd be doing everything possible to avoid another clash with Light Shift. The objective must surely be to boost her stud value by securing the Group 1 win she deserves rather than becoming known as the filly that chased Light Shift home. Therefore if, as seems likely, Light Shift goes for the Nassau Stakes Peeping Fawn should go for the Irish Oaks

All My Loving (37) ran a good race to finish third. But she's almost certainly going to be kept to Group 1 company from now on and just isn't quite quick enough to win at that level according to my ratings.

The other horse to take out of the race is surely FOUR SINS (34). Her trainer expressed concerns about her ability to handle the contours of Epsom before the race. And her rivals certainly didn't do her any favours in the contest itself. The third, All The Way, crossed her, causing her to lose momentum and then the second did the job properly, actually making contact, causing her to slow up even further. I guess the Stewards must have looked at it and reached the same conclusion I did. Namely that Four Sins would have gone several lengths closer but for the interference but still have finished fourth.

Four Sins' trainer, John Oxx, says she prefers faster ground that the slightly yielding surface she ran on at Epsom. Add that to her probable dislike of the course plus the interference and it seems likely that Four Sins will be capable of a good deal better on faster ground and over the more galloping course in the Irish Oaks. She's already earned a rating of 37 from me over what's probably an inadequate ten furlongs while running green. So I'd say that she's the biggest threat to Peeping Fawn at the Curragh, assuming Light Shift skips that race.

YES, AUTHORIZED IS FAST, BUT ...

AUTHORIZED (42) is clearly an above average Derby winner judged by the time of the race. So it looks likely that he is going to end the run of losses suffered by the last four Derby winners in all their subsequent outings. However, I would urge some caution before anyone goes overboard and suggests he's now going to sweep all before him in the big middle-distance races against older horses.

Firstly, Authorized was ridden right out to the line in a strongly run race here. So this is clearly as fast as he can go, at least at the age he is now. And on my ratings that makes him look vulnerable to the very smart group of four year olds who are now in training across Europe. Remember, last year's crop of three year old middle distance colts was a truly exceptional one - at least according to my speed ratings. I can't recall ever seeing such strength in depth in the division. The best of them on my speed ratings are still in training. Namely Dylan Thomas, Lauro, Rail Link and Visindar. If Authorized can beat them then I'll start jumping on the bandwagon. But smart as he is, I think he's going to find it very hard to beat the best older horses.

The horses that chased Authorized home did so at a rather too respectable distance to be considered likely future Group 1 winners. The runner-up, Eagle Mountain (39), benefited from being held up a long way off the unusually searching early pace. I suspect he was basically gifted second place by horses that had tired after sitting too close to the testing gallop. He ran an okay time but is no certainty for the Irish Derby on this run. In fact I'd be surprised if something faster didn't turn up at the Curragh.

SEPTIMUS SHOULD GO FOR THE GOLD CUP

SEPTIMUS (38) looked a smart bet to me in the Coronation Cup. And, having watched the video of the race several times, I'm now convinced he was indeed the best horse in the race. He set a stop-go pace in the early stages. The result was that they took 1.5 seconds less than the fillies did in the Oaks to cover the last half mile of the race (I timed them from the path which cuts across the course early in the straight).

Septimus was initially totally outpaced by his stablemate Scorpion (39) as the sprint began. But his long stride began to close the gap again in the closing stages. He gained a couple of lengths in the final furlong and was in front shortly after the line, looking full of run. In a more strongly run race I'm sure he would have prevailed.

I concede that Septimus ran like an out and out stayer here and has a reputation for needing cut in the ground. But he won the Mooresbridge Stakes over ten furlongs on fast ground in very decent time on his previous start. So I'm inclined to believe that all he needs is a stronger pace. Indeed all his defeats have come in slow run races. He's won all four times the early pace looked to be strong.

The logical long term target for Septimus must remain the Irish St Leger, though I would not discount the possibility that he'll win a Group 1 race over a shorter distance before then, quite possibly on fast ground. But the race I'd really love to see him go for is the Ascot Gold Cup. The pace wouldn't matter there over such a long distance and I'd rate him a good thing to win seeing how vulnerable I now believe Yeats to be (see below).

Septimus has a big long stride, and watching the way he rallied so strongly here and finished full of run, I have no doubt at all he'd excel over the Gold Cup trip. And I know from my going allowances that the ground wouldn't be a problem either.

SIERRA VISTA MUST GO FOR THE ABBAYE

SIERRA VISTA (42) is a tough front runner to pass in a small field and proved it by winning the Group 2 Temple Stakes in fast time. She has now run five times in fields of eight or less over five furlongs and won every single time.

As I see it, Sierra Vista simply must go for the Abbaye at the end of the season. I say this because French sprints are run at a slower pace in the early stages. This has allowed many British front running sprinters to win in Group company over there in fields far bigger than they were normally able to beat back home.

In Britain when there's a big field in a sprint there are plenty of horses lining up to take on a horse like Sierra Vista for the lead. As a result they're forced to go too fast and tire In France they can get away with setting just as slow a pace as they would in a small field in Britain.

Desert Lord provides good evidence for my hypothesis. He had a great record in small fields in Britain but managed to win last year's Abbaye against 13 rivals.

I will be deeply disappointed if Sierra Vista doesn't go for the Abbaye. It is often run on the soft ground she favours and it provides her with by far the best opportunity she'll ever have to take a Group 1.

TAM LIN IS BETTER THAN THIS

I rated TAM LIN (22) as one of the top horses in Europe last year. So I thought he would cruise home in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown as it looked just a bog standard Group 3. Unfortunately though he tore off into the lead and Frankie Dettori appeared to do little or nothing to stop him.

We learned at Ascot last year that Tam Lin can pull too hard for his own good if he sees too much daylight. And we learned at Newbury that he pulls himself up if he's been in front for too long.

I don't like criticizing a jockey (in fact I never have in this column). But in this instance I think Godolphin in general and Dettori in particular didn't do their homework with Tam Lin. Next time they will know better and I'd bet on Tam Lin showing the Group 1 form he's capable of.

TARTAN TIE CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

TARTAN TIE (37) broke his maiden in fine style at Redcar last week, making all the running and galloping on resolutely to score in pattern class time. He is a tall, deep-chested, long striding sort who won the race purely on stamina. The ten furlongs looked the bare minimum for him and I suspect he will improve over a mile and a half and then again over the Leger trip.

At some point Tartan Tie looks sure to run in Group company. Indeed I can easily see him developing into a St Leger prospect. Before then however there is surely a valuable handicap to be won with him.

KILLENA BOY IS SMART AROUND A TURN

KILLENA BOY (38) won a hot mile handicap at Sandown in a time that would win most Group 3 contests. His connections feel he is best around a turn. I would add that he also seems to prefer galloping tracks.

So far Killena Boy has won all four times he's run a mile or more around a turn on a galloping track. No doubt he'll be returning for the valuable handicap over a mile at Sandown in a few weeks time where he'll deservedly be one of the favourites.

MORINQUA IS A REAL SPEEDBALL

MORINQUA (38) won a five furlong Conditions race at Beverley in a time that suggests she's capable of winning in pattern company. Her speed is obviously her biggest asset. She flies out of the stalls and sets a scorching pace. But it's clear that she doesn't last more than five furlongs and doesn't even get that far on soft ground.

So far Morinqua has run six times on yielding or faster ground over the minimum trip. And she would have won every single time but for a couple of photo finish losses.

If she were mine I'd be shooting for some black type with Morinqua right away. Pattern races tend to attract smaller fields than the valuable sprint handicaps Morinqua could now go for and speed balls like Morinqua tend to be best dominating smaller fields. She might well be forced to go too fast early in a 20 plus runner handicap.

HIGH AMBITION SHOULD WIN AGAIN

Since they started staging those abominable Bumper races over trips short of two miles in Britain I suspect we've seen a lot more horses graduate from them to run on the flat instead of over jumps than was intended. Many of the horses that run in them simply don't stay national hunt distances.

One such horse is HIGH AMBITION (36) who blew away a fair field to win a minor seven furlong handicap at Yarmouth.

Quite how good High Ambition is or exactly what circumstances he favours are hard to say at this point. Obviously he didn't stay a mile and three quarters in Bumper races. Equally clearly he did not like the AW which he tried afterwards. He's won his only two turf starts on the flat and it might well be simply happenstance that they've both been over seven furlong on fast ground.

The only thing I can say for sure is that very few horses with official ratings of 65 run a pattern class time as High Ambition did here. Clearly he should win again soon.