MARMALADE NEEDS TO GO LONGER

I've said before that DUKE OF MARMALADE (43) is really a twelve furlong horse. And despite the tremendous time he clocked when winning the Prince Of Wales Stakes I'm now more convinced than ever. What convinces me is that he ran the last three furlongs 0.7 of second quicker than Henrythenavigator did when winning the St James' Palace Stakesover two furlongs shorter the previous day.

The early pace was by no means slow in the Prince of Wales, and they didn't go off too fast in the St James' Palace. It's simply that Duke Of Marmalade was finishing like a train. He powered away from what admittedly were Group 2 placed horses.

It was good to hear a few days afterwards that Duke Of Marmalade would be the King George. I'm certain the mile and a half will suit him brilliantly. His stablemate Soldier Of Fortune now certain to drop out (because he's now running in France and O'Brien seems to believe (rightly I think) that he needs rests between his runs. And the top three year olds haven't run in the race in the race for several years now. So it rather looks like Duke Of Marmalade will go off long odds on favorite for the big race, and he deserves too.

I confess that I don't know quite what to make of the runner up PHOENIX TOWER (40) who ran his best ever race. He was caught three or four wide throughout and this may have been why he got unbalanced as he changed leads entering the straight and rolled inwards to bump ASK (39). When he straightened up Phoenix Tower kept on very strongly to the line though unable to go with the winner.

I know that it sounds weird, seeing he ran second in the Lockinge last time, but my feeling from watching this race is that Phoenix Tower will get a mile and a half. He was finishing strongly at the end of a very strongly run mile and a quarter here.

The caveat is that Phoenix Tower has now run six times and has yet to earn better than a Group 2 class speed rating from me. He's lost both Group 1's he's contested and right now looks just shy of that class. However this may change.

The race I would be looking at for Phoenix Tower is the Breeders' Cup Turf. He's shown that he can win off the kind of slow early pace that's the norm in US turf races and also around a very tight track with a short homestraight. His turn of foot is exactly what wins big US turf races. And he'd have no trouble lasting the mile and a half in US conditions. He's Breeders' Cup nominated, so there'd be no huge supplementary entry fee to pay. It might also be worth looking at the Breeders' Cup Classic since it's set to be run on a surface similar to the Polytrack he has already won on.

Third placed PIPEDREAMER (40) had no excuses and ran his race. He's almost certainly just a Group 2 horse but a good one. Nine to ten furlongs looks to be his right distance range too (he's just not built for longer or shorter). I'd be pretty confident he won't be good enough to win a Group 1 seeing how comprehensively the winner ran away from him and how easily the runner up picked him up despite running around. But over nine to ten furlongs below Group 1 class he's going to be tough to beat. Long term the race I'd be shooting for with Pipedreamer is the Prix Dollar at Longchamp's Arc meeting.

PRESSING (38) was moving best of all entering the straight and actually looked like winning or at least giving Duke Of Marmalade a hard time. But the finish is slightly uphill at Ascot, enough to slow the runners up by about two seconds over the last three furlongs compared with a dead flat track. And this seemed to find Pressing out, just as it did in the same race last year.

Pressing has already won a Group 1 and ran Saddex to a photo just after that one had done the same to Duke Of Marmalade. Clearly he is one of the top ten furlong horses in Europe - as long as he avoids tracks with uphill finishes.

I see that Pressing is entered up in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich. He'd be up against the smart German horse Wiesenpfad there, but it does look a better immediate target for him than the Eclipse as Munich is a dead flat track whereas the Eclipse is run at Sandown which features a steep uphill finish. Long term Pressing looks a solid candidate for the Irish Champion Stakes and the Hong Kong Cup.

ASK (39) has earned ratings as high as 41 from me in the past and run second in the Canadian International. He did well to finish strongly and run so close after being bumped in a race run over two furlongs shy of his proper distance. His logical target must again be the Canadian International. I don't think he's quite good enough for races like the King George and the Arc over that trip. The Grosser Preis von Baden would be an interesting race for him too, though I rather suspect he'll be up against some very smart three year olds there.

STOTSFOLD (39) almost equaled the best ever speed rating I've given him to finish a good sixth.

Previously I had thought that Stotsfold was a tight track specialist, seeing that he'd run nothing but good races on tight tracks and had yet to show his best form or win on a galloping course. However he ran poorly at Chester last time and ran huge here. So I think I need a new theory to explain his form. The best I can do is to suggest he's a Summer top of the ground horse who is at his best on a quick surface from late June to September. He's won five out of five in these cirrcumstances. He certainly looks interesting for his next outing, especially if it's below Group 1 class on fast ground.

LOUP BRETON (37) ran below the form he'd shown when winning the Prix d'Harcourt. He got a clear run throughout the race and progressed from eleventh to seventh up the straight without ever threatening.

My best guess now is that Loup Breton needs to be fresh to produce his top form. He did win a weak nine furlong Group 3 when he wasn't fresh. But otherwise all his best runs have been on his first two starts of the season or with a five week break thereafter at ten furlongs. It may also be that Loup Breton is at his best in fields of eight or less or needs softer ground. In any event he is better than this and still capable of winning a Group 1. His next run should tell us more.

I wouldn't worry too much about the last place finish of SIXTIES ICON (24). The strong pace would not have suited him. He has run seven times in races where the early pace has been slow enough for the winner to earn a speed rating from me of 32 or less. His only two losses in those seven races were the Arc and when second to the top class Getaway. However he has lost all six times he's run in more strongly run races, finishing unplaced on five of those occasions.

STEWARDS NEED TO LOOK AT HOW THEY APPLY RULES ABOUT 'TEAM TACTICS'

I've noted before that DARJINA (40) lacks a bit of pace in the finish due to the way she's built. She showed this once more when losing the Queen Anne Stakes narrowly to HARADASUN (40).

Darjina was slowly beginning to close the winner down as they came towards the line. She's a wonderfully consistent filly but has now lost five in a row. I think she's going to find it hard to get her head in front again at Group 1 level while she remains at trips short of ten furlongs. Sadly her immediate campaign looks to be built around one mile races. From a betting standpoint this is good news as it builds up Darjina's odds nicely for the time she finally does step up to ten furlongs - most probably in the Prix L'Opera.

There was an interesting incident just after the two furlong pole which certainly made things easier for Haradasun and Darjina come to that, as it didn't affect her). This occurred when jockey David McCabe on Haradasun's pacemaker Honoured Guest took a long look over his left shoulder to see where his stablemate was and then allowed his mount to drift away from the rail to open up a gap to allow the winner through. Unfortunately McCabe didn't look over his right shoulder to see where the other runners were. As a result he ended up closing what was a five foot gap between him and CESARE (39) and bumped that one heavily, causing him to be snatched up sharply and bump into the back of FINSCEAL BEO. That's not what the stewards say happened but it sure looked that way to me after watching the video over and over.

The interference looked worst visually for Cesare because it was so dramatic. But the principle sufferer of the interference to my eye was FINSCEAL BEO (39) because Cesare turned her backside sideways momentarily in the kind of fishtail manouver Police are trained to execute when trying to stop a car that they're chasing. The manouver didn't stop Finsceal Beo but it cost her valuable momentum. More importantly it caused her to become unbalanced and drift left and right throughout the last furlong and a half.

I know the stewards saw things differently (they actually ruled that Finsceal Beo hampered Honoured Guest and suspended the jockey), and I concede it's hard to tell these things from a video but my feeling is that Finsceal Beo might just about have won without the interference. As it is she lost by less than a length. The run showed that she's still effective at a mile, though I think her connections are probably right to say she's now better over ten furlongs. That's certainly what my speed ratings say.

One factor that added to the crowding in the race was the fact that it was run at a fairly modest pace early on and developed into a sprint over the last quarter mile. As a result it was always going to be a messy contest. But overall my feeling is that it wasn't just the pace that was the problem. I think the Stewards need to look at this race again with their new rules about team tactics in mind. And long term Britain surely needs to bring in much more stringent rules about interference like they have in France. Right now it seems to be perfectly acceptable to deliberately box a rival in, as Dettori seemed to do with Authorized when beating Dylan Thomas in last year's Juddmonte International - or more recently when Johnny Murtagh appeared to do the same with Soldier Of Fortune in the Coronation Cup when hemming in what looked to be his main rival Getaway. The way this race panned out suggests that even more obvious attempts to help one horse win while impeding others are now okay.

The very least that can be done is to ensure that in future no obviously outclassed horses are allowed to run in Group 1 company over a mile plus when accompanied by a stablemate or one in the same ownership. This would at least guarantee that when such horses tire badly they don't impede other runners. A rule like this would have booted Coolmore's longshot pacemakers Honoured Guest and Song Of Hiawatha out of the Coronation Cup and the Queen Anne. And most likely without them, the interference which took place in both races would not have occurred.

As I see it the Stewards need to recognize that European racing is now dominated by three super stables: Fabre, Coolmore and Godolphin. These stables have the resources to throw multiple entries at a Group 1 and deliberately run one or more of them purely to help another one win.

I would add that I am not one to complain about Stewards' rulings. If you go through the hundreds of thousands of words I've written about the thousands of races I've reported about on this website I don't think you'll find a single other instance where I've complained about the action or inaction of the Stewards. This though is something special and I felt I had to say something.

I can't say where Cesare would have placed if he hadn't been bumped. But time does seem to be running out for this Ascot specialist to score a Group 1 win now that he's seven years of age.

I liked the way MOUNT NELSON (39) ran. He was stretched when the pace picked up approaching the two furlong pole and lost ground while being ridden along. But he then picked up nicely in the final furlong despite twice being tight for room. He's a big, long striding horse that looks much more of a middle distance runner than a miler. I can easily see him taking a ten furlong Group 1 sometime this season.

SAGEBURG (38) didn't run badly seeing that he was throwing his head around and refused to settle off the slowish early pace. He won the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan over nine furlongs and that may well be his perfect distance. A mile looks to be a bit quick for him and he was fading in the last furlong of the ten and a half furlong Prix Ganay. He's obviously going to be hard to place from now on. The only Group 1 I can think of for him is the QEII. It is over a mile but is so strongly run it often goes to a longer distance runner. Otherwise I guess there's the Prix Dollar back over nine furlongs if he cuts back to Group 2 company.

SPIRITO DEL VENTO (38) ran below his best, and I have a theory to explain why. I reckon he is best when he's fresher than he was for this race. His three pattern wins half all followed a break of five weeks plus. He's lost all five times he's run in Listed or Group company without such a break. In addition he's run unplaced all three times he's tackled Group 1 races despite coming into both of them off the required break.

Spirito Del Vento is a very good Group 2 horse according to my speed ratings. And normally that's all it takes to win a Group 1 race over a mile because the top milers are invariably a weaker group than the sprinters or middle-distance horses.

Seeing that the top French horses are normally rested over the Summer, Spirito Del Vento now becomes an interesting candidate for the big mile races that are run in the Autumn.

I've said before that I don't think TARIQ (37) and ARABIAN GLEAM (37) quite stay a mile and are really seven furlong horses. The way both of them tired late despite the moderate early pace provides more evidence for this view. Both are clearly useful and can improve over the shorter trip.

LINNGARI (37) is a small horse and the interference he suffered undoubtly affected him more than it would a bigger horse.

If races were run in lanes Linngari would almost certainly be regarded as one of the best horses on the planet. Unfortunately they aren't. And because he is only a small horse Linngari seems to always come off worst in the traffic problems that occur in big fields and in the tightly packed contests they have in France due to the slow pace of races over there.

Outside of France Linngari had run twelve times in fields of a dozen or less before this race since losing on his racecourse debut. He'd won ten of those twelve times and run some tremendous times in top races.

Linngari was good enough to finish a half length second to the brilliant Admire Moon in the world's most valuable turf race, the Dubai Duty Free last year.

Linngari always seems to run his very best when he's fresh. He was off for three months before this race. So he will still be fresh for his next outing. The race I'd shoot for with him would be the Eclipse because I reckon he'd stay the trip and the contest invariably attracts a small field. He'd also be interesting in the Sussex Stakes. He's certainly more than fast enough to win either contest and looks a horse well worth keeping an eye on.

EQUIANO SHOULD GO FOR JULY CUP

EQUIANO (43) has run nothing but huge races this season. In fact he's earned more big speed ratings from me than any other three year old in Europe. He earned another one when making all the running to take the Kings Stand Stakes in seriously fast time from a red hot field.

Equiano's only defeat so far in five tries on fast ground was a photo finish loss to the Champion French sprinter Marchand D'Or. If he were mine I'd be supplementing him for the July Cup rather than waiting for the Nunthorpe, the Sprint Cup and the Abbaye. The ground can come up soft for those races and, given his daisy-cutting stride and his record, that probably wouldn't suit Equiano at all. In addition Equiano has won over seven furlongs and finished a close third over a mile in Spain's top two year old race on unsuitable ground. His physique certainly suggests the extra furlong of the July Cup would be all in his favour.

TAKEOVER TARGET (42) has been one of the world's top sprinters for years. He's probably a smidge faster over six furlongs these days. And it was unfortunate that the ground slowed up a bit too much for him when he returned for the Golden Jubilee a few days later. He remains a force to be reckoned with on fast ground especially over six furlongs. He should go really well in the July Cup.

FLEETING SPIRIT (42) ran a huge race to finish a close third and is clearly a very smart filly over five furlongs. This was her second tough race in a row so I'd like to see her skip the July Cup because it will surely come too soon for her. In addtion the race is over six furlongs, a trip she's yet to win over.

If Fleeting Spirit is kept fresh and encounters fast ground she should be able to take one of the big three five furlong sprints this season.

DANDY MAN (42) ran really well to finish a close fourth. I think it was a shrewd move on Dettori's part to keep Dandy Man in the small group of runners on the far side of the course. I say this because m suspicion is that Dandy Man is hard to manouver and that this is why he seems to hoover up all the traffic problems that are going (including on his last two starts). If one photo finish had gone the other way he would now have won five of the six times he's run in single figure fields. He's won just once in ten tries in bigger fields.

HOH MIKE (41) stayed on well towards the finish, showing once more that he is besst when there's an uphill finish or some cut in the ground to pull him into the race in the closing stages.

NATIONAL COLOUR (39) showed serious early pace, leading the far side group till tiring in the last furlong.

National Colour obviously had some sort of physical problem when finishing far back in the Dubai Golden Shaheen fifteen month previously because she hadn't run since. Previously she'd won South Africa's two biggest sprints. She ran some seriously fast times in South Africa too and does look rather interesting for future big sprints.

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR LOOKS NAILED ON FOR THE ECLIPSE

One thing is becoming blindingly obvious this season, and this is that the three year olds across Europe are an unusually strong group this year. More evidence of this was forthcoming when HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (42) broke the course record for a mile at Ascot to take the St James' Palace Stakes. In doing so he took his third Group 1 in a row and ran just about as fast as a three year old can beyond a sprint trip this early in the year.

Hnerythenavigator was keeping on strongly. So the obvious thing to do now is step him up to ten furlongs for the Eclipse Stakes. I know that the latest Coolmore statement indicates he's headed for the Sussex Stakes but when they see what an ideal spot the Eclipse is for Henrythenavigator they'll surely have a rethink.

The Eclipse suits milers, with eight of the last nine runnings of the race having gone to a horse that previously won a Group race or placed in a Group 1 that season over less than ten furlongs. Seeing how strong the three year olds are this year it's tough to envisage anything being good enough to beat Henrythenavigator at Sandown. His trainer, Aidan O'Brien has an amazing knack of keeping three year olds on the go at the top level, so I'm not too concerned it will be the fourth Group 1 in a row without a break for the horse.

With the fast ground being in his favour I made RAVEN'S PASS (41) one of my best bets of the meeting. And he certainly ran fast enough to take nine out of ten renewals of the race. He closed smoothly and strongly all through the closing stages but was never quite going to get up. Nonetheless it was a terrific effort and showed that Raven's Pass is a a seriously good miler.

If he is to win his big objective, the Breeders' Cup Mile, I think Raven's Pass is going to have to be trained to show a bit more speed in the early stages. Otherwise he could end up coming from too far back to get up in the short homestraight as Rock Of Gibraltar did a few years back. Right now I imagine the main objective will be to get the Group 1 win that will secure his stud value. The Sussex Stakes looks to provide an ideal opportunity for that. If the ground comes up fast there I'd be wary of opposing Raven's Pass.

Third placed TWICE OVER (39) was swamped for finishing speed by the first two and I think his trainer is right to say he needs to step back up in distance. However it is worrying to note that Twice Over has now earned speed ratings between 37 and 39 from me four times in a row. This suggests he's not quite up to winning a Group 1.

SABANA PERDIDA DOES STAY THE MILE NOW

Before last week SABANA PERDIDA (38) had lost all six times she'd run in pattern company at a mile or more. However her trainer says she is more mature and relaxed this year - both things which tend to increase a horse's stamina. Sure enough the smart mare took the Windsor Forest Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot, and she was doing her best work at the finish.

If you toss out Sabana Perdida's runs before this season at a mile plus in pattern company you'll find that she's won eleven of her thirteen other starts, with one of her losses being a one length second place finish to Dionisia, one of the best Italian fillies of recent years.

Sabana Perdida has earned speed ratings as big as 40 from me before. So now that she has shown she stays she must rank as the one they all have to beat in the Group 1 Prix d'Astarte. In fact she's run as fast as all but a handful of male rivals who specialize at a mile. This being so I can see her winning something like the Moulin ar Jacques Le Marois.

ART CONNOISSEUR SHOULD BE HARD TO BEAT IN PHOENIS STAKES

ART CONNOISSEUR (37) confirmed the idea that he is the top two year old colt with an impressive last to first win in the Coventry. He now looks the one they'll all have to beat in the Phoenix Stakes which he will be supplemented for.

Long term the obvious question is whether Art Connoisseur will stay the mile of the Guineas. My feeling from his physique and pedigree is that most likely seven furlongs will prove his maximum. But there's plenty of big two year old races for him over that trip and shorter, so for the immediate future he looks a tough nut to crack.

The favourite ORIZABA stayed on late after rearing at the start and looks like a horse for the future on softer ground and/or a longer distance.

Orizaba is is a tall, mature, good-bodied, classy looking sort that is clearly built for a mile or more. He looked to appreciate the cut in the ground when he won really impressively on his racecourse debut at Newbury. But the much faster surface here can't have suited him over a trip that's surely on the short side.

The only other winner on the dam's side of Orizaba's pedigree is her sibling Dr Leunt, a soft ground three mile plus steeplechaser. Clearly this is where Orizaba gets his size and scope from. It could well be he needs cut in the ground to produce his best. Certainly he looks a good prospect for the longer juvenile Group races later in the season.

SPIN CYCLE WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT IN MOLECOMB

I though SPIN CYCLE (34) was a smart bet to win the Norfolk Stakes, partly because the favourite SOUTH CENTRAL (34) looked vulnerable over such a short distance. Sure enough Spin Cycle surged into the lead close home but was then just outrun by a powerful late rally from South Central.

I think Spin Cycle's connections are right to say that he's an out and out five furlong horse and therefore ideally suited to Goodwood's Molecomb Stakes. He is a close-coupled sprinting sort with a big backside and a daisy-cutting stride which indicates a need for fast ground. He already looks like a three year old and is surely going to be tough to beat at Goodwood

South Central looks too tall and strong for five furlongs but just got away with it here. He'll be racing over six furlongs plus in future, and I'd anticipate improvement from him over the longer trip.

COASTAL PATH DESERVES A SHOT AT TWELVE FURLONGS

I've been ranting on about how good COASTAL PATH (31) is for ages. So I was most disappointed to see him tire so badly through the last quarter mile to finish third in the Gold Cup. It may well be that he gave himself no chance of lasting home by pulling against the slow early pace. But seeing the speed and acceleration he's shown in shorter races he surely deserves a shot at a Group 1 over twelve furlongs. Fabre had him entered up in the Coronation Cup over that distance earlier this season and even the Prix Ganay over ten and a half furlongs. I hope he makes another entry for the horse at a shorter trip and declares him this time. He's capable of taking a big international race on my speed ratings.

I don't know what more I can say about YEATS (35) who became only the second horse to win three Gold Cups.

CUIS GHAIRE IS THE TOP JUVENILE FILLY

CUIS GHAIRE (36) looked a good thing to take the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and duly won in good style. But she actually looked to be in trouble with two furlongs to go when the relatively modest early pace developed into a sprint finish. She was caught flat footed for a while and also looked to be racing greenly and lazily. But her class and stamina ensured she eventually picked up to surge away from her rivals to win moving strongly.

Six furlongs off a slow pace is hardly ideal for Cuis Ghaire who is built and bred to stay ten furlongs. I've adjusted her rating to take account of the slow early pace but it still falls a bit short of the Group 1 times she clocked when wining her previous outing.

Trainer Jim Bolger says he won't be risking Cuis Ghaire over such a short trip in future and is no doubt eyeing the Morglare Stud Stakes and the Prix Marcel Boussac later on. I'd be surprised if anything came along that was good enough to beat her in either of those races and fully expect to see her end up the highest rated juvenile filly this year.

LUSH LASHES FAST BUT WORTH OPPOSING IN IRISH OAKS

I reckoned that LUCH LASHES (39) failed to stay the mile and a half in the Oaks. So I wasn't that surprised to see her cut back to a mile and win the Coronation Stakes in fast time. She'd previously won the Musidora while earning an identical speed rating from me and is clearly one of the best fillies around at eight to ten furlongs. However I will oppose her with some confidence if she lines up for the Irish Oaks as I still think she doesn't stay.

SPACIOUS (35) was moving really smoothly early on and looked the most likely winner to my eye as they turned in. But when she got clear for her run it appeared she wasn't letting herself down fully on the firm surface and was hanging. She's a pretty big and strong filly. I suspect she needs a slower surface.

PATKAI CAN DO MUCH SHORTER TRIPS

PATKAI (39) clocked an unusually fast time for a three year old over two miles to win the Queen's Vase. But the tremendous burst of speed he showed in the closing stages makes it clear he is not just a stayer. He actually came home quicker over the last three furlongs than Henrythenavigator did over half the distance in the St James' Palace Stakes.

If he were mine I'd be seriously considering the idea of supplementing Patkai for the Irish Derby, the German Derby or the Grand Prix de Paris. I guess his obvious target has to be the St Leger for which he's favourite with some firms.

Since 1989 no less than 65 Leger runners have prepped at 1m 5f or more and they've all lost. But if any horse can overturn that stat then Patkai is surely the one. He looks a very good horse to me, very possibly Group 1.

KASUMI HAS A BIG SHOT IN HAMBURG

KASUMI (38) earned herself a shot at the Group 3 Hamburger Stutenpreis on July 2nd when winning a hot Listed race at Pontefract in fast time. She came from fourth place to run down CHANTILLY TIFFANY (33) and then hold the determined late rally of FLYING CLARETS (37) who had looked beaten after making the running at a strong pace.

Kasumi has now won six of the last nine times she's run on good or faster turf, with all her defeats coming against males in class 3 or higher. Clearly she's tough to beat against her own sex and must have a big shot of winning in Hamburg as she's already shown she can win on a tight, right-handed course like that one.

Flying Clarets is very game and consistent and would have won a good deal more often if only she had a better turn of foot. She seems especially good on her local tracks in Yorkshire where she has reached the first two in seven of her last eight starts. And she does seem to go particularly well for Paul Hanagan. Her five wins have all been with him on board. She's lost all seventeen times she's been ridden by someone else.

The sheepskin cheekpieces that Flying Clarets wears often help a horse that dislikes crowding in a race, forming a psychological buffer between them and the other runners. Horses that like small fields rarely win in fields bigger than eleven. She did once win in a twelve runner race but that was when one of her rivals tailed off from half a mile out.

Okay there are a lot of provisos about Flying Clarets. But they're not hard to meet and she always seems to run her race when she gets her favoured circumstances. She's now run fast enough to win a Group 3 on three occasions and will surely win at least a Listed race before the season is out.

Chantilly Tiffany looked sure to win when she cruised into the lead a furlong and a half out. But she stopped dramatically soon after, just as she had the previous two times she'd run on very stiff courses. It looks likes she's best over a mile on a relatively flat track in smallish fields. She's won two times out of three in these circumstances and finished second in a Listed race in her only loss. When she meets them again I'd bet on her proving capable of taking a Listed race on what I saw here. On stiff or undulating courses, on soft ground or in big fields she probably won't get home.

CHA CHA CHA CAN DANCE TO LISTED SUCCESS

After her recent narrow conqueror Kasumi had franked her form with a pattern race win CHA CHA CHA (37) was not surprisingly sent off favourite for a seven furlong handicap on Kempton's Polytrack. She justified the support in some style and now looks set to emulate Kasumi by earning some black type.

Jockey Niell Callan held up Cha Cha Cha in a close fourth spot behind the front running MEDICEA SIDERA (36) and waited until the gap in the course a furlong and a half out opened up a space for his mount to make a run. Cha Cha Cha picked up the leader readily and moved narrowly ahead to win a shade comfortably.

Cha Cha Cha is not that big, and I suspect this is why her four wins have all come in fields of eleven or less. In bigger fields she probably has trouble fighting her way through traffic.

It also seems clear that Cha Cha Cha is best around a turn and needs a fast surface. If you look at her form you'll find that she would have won five times out of six in fields of eleven or less on a fast surface around a turn but for losing narrowly to a Group class rival last time.

Cha Cha Cha was rated just 72 officially on the All Weather when winning this race. So I can see why her connections would want to exploit this by winning a string of handicaps on the Poly. But they'll earn far more in terms of adding to her stud value by winning or even placing in a Listed race. This being so, if she were mine I'd be striking while the iron is hot, forgetting about her handicap mark, and going for that black type which is so important to a filly's broodmare prospects. An added incentive to do this is that in the class 3 handicaps she'll be forced to contest soon there are invariably one or two horses that can run as fast as her.

Like a lot of front runners Medicea Sidera seems best dominating a small field. So far, if a couple of narrow losses had gone the other way she would have won four of the six times she's run in fields of eleven or less (the normal cut off point for horses that prefer small fields). She's built and bred to go a bit longer than the seven furlongs of this race. And since the percentage of fast horses drops with each furlong a horse steps up in distance, a logical move would be to step Medicea Sidera up to a mile (I can see her staying ten furlongs). She too is capable of earning black type on my ratings.

MILITARY POWER GETTING STRONGER

MILITARY POWER (31) earned a Listed class speed rating from me when winning his maiden at Redcar. And he showed that he's not simply the staying sort that I suspected by winning a much more slowly run contest at York.

Military Power is a deep chested, strong sort that will have no trouble getting a mile and a half plus. So I though he was in trouble when he was only fifth as the sprint to the line began and with no decent gap to make his run. But when the gap finally opened he surged through it and outsprinted his rivals to win with a fair bit in hand.

This run suggests to me that Military Power is Stakes class just as his trainer suggested after the race. Only a stakes class horse could win in such unfavourable circumstances.

I will be wary of opposing Military Power if he turns out at Newmarket's July meeting.

TIFERNATI CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG HANDICAP

TIFERNATI (37) won the valuable Lanark Silver Bell in good style at Hamilton.

Held up in tenth and eleventh position, eight to ten lengths off the strong early pace, Tifernati had plenty of cover. In fact he had a whole wall of horses in front of him approaching the two furlong pole. So his jockey had to switch him around the whole field and come down the outside for a run.

Once he got to the center of the track it always looked like Tifernati was going to get there. He moved strongly, gained ground smoothly and was still full of running as he passed the line. He drifted towards the rail pretty markedly once there were not horses to stop him doing that but this is not unusual.

Tifernati has won all three times he's gone twelve furlongs in anything but single figure fields. He has pulled hard in the early stages several times in big fields. And from the way his jockey was keen to seek cover here I strongly suspect that he needs a big field to avoid seeing too much daylight and pulling.

Tifernati is a big, strong, muscular, good-bodied jumping sort who will doubtless attract a lot of attention from the big jumping stables if he ends up in the horses in Newmarket's training sale at the end of the season. Meanwhile I reckon he's got a real shot of taking another valuable handicap because he's clearly suited to big fields and a strong early pace which is exactly what you get in such contests. I wouldn't rule out the Ebor.

DARK MISCHIEF IS USEFUL

Anyone who wants to answer the nurture-nature argument need only look at British horse-racing where two trainers appear to provide the answer. It seems that you can give any kind of a horse to Mark Johnston or Henry Candy and one will turn it into a stayer while the other will make it a sprinter.

This being so I wouldn't go running away with the idea that DARK MISCHIEF (33) is a slam dunk to improve over longer distances after winning well on his racecourse debut at Windsor. True he's a strong, tall, deep-chested, rangy, mature sort with buckets of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree. But having Namid as his sire and, more importantly, Henry Candy as his trainer, all but guarantees the six furlongs he won over at Windsor is going to prove his maximum distance.

Candy seems to specialize in big sprinting sorts and will no doubt be acquiring the progeny of Australian sprinters Choisir and Exceed And Excel in future for this reason (because they produce big horses like themselves). Meanwhile he has this clearly useful sort in Dark Mischief.

Dark Mischief made all the running. But he went slow for the first three furlongs, so I've adjusted his rating based on the time he took to cover the final half of his race which was 0.7 seconds quicker than the other six furlong contest on the card. This suggests he put up a Listed class performance here.

After winding the pace up from halfway, Dark Mischief was shaken up and asked to really quicken from the two furlong mark. He seemed a bit more interested in what was going around him though and raced with his head slightly up and his ears pricked as inexperienced horses so often do. But he was moving so strongly he came away from the field in the last furlong to win by a couple of lengths.

I've little doubt that Dark Mischief will improve on this run as he gains experience. And, knowing Candy, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he went down to five furlongs instead of stepping up to seven as would be the case with most other trainers. Indeed I see Dark Mischief is entered in the Super Sprint over the shorter trip where I'd be rather interested in his chances.

DEADLY SECRET A GOOD PROSPECT

DEADLY SECRET (35) won a decent looking juvenile race comprised entirely of racecourse debutantes at Hamilton. The final time wasn't great but the field came home much faster than good older handicappers over the last three furlongs, and I've adjusted my rating to take account of this.

Deadly Secret is a well proportioned horse who looks built for a mile, perhaps ten furlongs. But, probably thanks to the stiff track, he proved effective over six furlongs here.

Nothing wanted to go on, hence the slow early pace, so Paul Hanagan sent Deadly Secret into the lead after a furlong. He wound the pace up from halfway, and was in full cry from two furlongs out. Sprint finishes make horses look bad because nothing can gain much ground or separate themselves form their rivals by a decent margin. But Deadly Secret did keep on strongly and saw his race out well to repel the late rally of the runner up MASTER ROONEY (34).

I don't know why Deadly Secret raced with his ears flat back throughout. Something must have been making him grumpy. But he showed no other sign of temperament, so I imagine it was just one of those things or is a quirk of his.

In any event I doubt that Deadly Secret will be racing over anything but seven furlongs plus in future. When he does it looks likely he's going to prove competitive in Group company.

Master Rooney is a rather big and ungainly, immature sort who ran around while making a late charge at the winner from the back. He's got some growing and maturing to do but is clearly useful. Like the winner he's built and bred for longer than six furlongs. He should have no trouble taking his maiden next time.

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE SHOULD TAKE THE KING GEORGE

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE LOOK HERE

LOOK HERE (40) clocked a seriously fast time in the Oaks and was fairly sprinting away in the closing stages to win full of running. She would probably now be unbeaten in three starts but for meeting trouble in running when a close second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and is clearly very useful.

Look Here showed a short, rapid action in the closing stages. And I got the impression she'd probably have been happier to stride out more freely on softer ground. A more galloping track would likely have suited her better as well.

I actually rate Look Here just a length per mile behind the mighty Zarkava. And it's hard to argue against that conclusion because she ran just a fraction of a second slower than the very smart older colt Soldier Of Fortune who won the Coronation Cup off a strong pace over the same distance in the previous race.

I suspect that the connections of Look Here will end up having a re-think about not supplementing her for the Irish Oaks. Her trainer, Ralph Beckett, says that she needs rests between her runs. But my studies indicate that five weeks is long enough for such horses, and there is over five weeks between the Epsom and Irish Oaks this year.

If Look Here's connections take a look at the stats they'll find it hard to resist shooting for the big Curragh race. These show that nine of the sixteen fillies to attempt the Epsom Oaks/Irish Oaks double have succeeded to date, with four of the losers running second. Logically, seeing that she's an above average Oaks winner, Look Here deserves to be about 4-6 or 4-7 to win at the Curragh.

MOONSTONE (38) couldn't go with the winner in the closing stages but stayed on nicely to finish second. She seemed to appreciate the strong early pace set by her stablemates Adored and Ice Queen who ended up filling the last two places. Clearly Moonstone stays well. No doubt she'll take on the winner again if that one does line up at the Curragh but I don't see why she should turn this form around.

If there is a filly that might reverse the form with Look Here it has to be KATIYRA (36). She just didn't seem to like coming down the hill at all and dropped back from disputing sixth place to be about twelfth as they turned in. She then made a really big move as the winner began her charge but was hanging and still unbalanced from the effects of the hill and the track's counter-camber. She kept on well to finish third. Trainer John Oxx explained later that "she just got stopped by a horse falling back and she lost her hind legs going across the path so there were excuses. She didn't come down the hill too well but I think that was more due to interference rather than not handling the track."

In any event, on a more galloping track like the Curragh I think Katiyra would have been able to stick closer to the pace, go with the winner and fight out the finish with her.

I liked the way CLOWANCE (34) stayed on to take fourth. Clearly that stout German blood on the dam's side of her pedigree was kicking in towards the finish. My feeling is that she's going to win a Group race even though I recognize she didn't clock that good a time here. In my experience the beaten lengths between runners get amplified in competitive, strongly run races like this. I'd bet that in a less frantic contest she'd have been no more than four lengths behind the winner.

LUSH LASHES (34) made a big move to close up and nearly hit the front before the two furlong marker but began to tire not long after. She'd run almost as fast as the winner when winning the Musidora. But that was over ten and a half furlongs. I think she needs to cut back to that sort of trip in future.

CAPE AMBER (32) ran a pretty amazing race seeing that she was throwing her head about wildly soon after the start and refused to settle. She also got hampered in the closing stages yet still managed to finish sixth of sixteen. I'm sure she'll improve markedly on this. .

MICHITA (30) was another that didn't seem to handle the course. She dropped back to have only three behind her rounding the turn into the straight. From there she improved five or six places to the line but was never balanced. Twice her jockey had to stop riding her to take corrective action as she rolled towards the rail. Eventually he stopped riding inside the last furlong when he saw she wasn't going to place. Michita ran a whole lot faster than this when winning at Goodwood and no doubt will again on a more suitable track.

IT'S GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR NEW APPROACH TO WIN AGAIN SOON

I confess that I've long been a doubter about NEW APPROACH (36). So you could say that it's a case of sour grapes when I say I'm dubious about his immediate prospects following his win in the Derby. But for me it's a matter of statistics.

Over the last dozen years there have been 33 attempts by three year olds in Europe to win a Group 1 before August after running in three or more such races over a mile plus that same season. The twelve attempts by Aidan O'Brien trained horses yielded four wins. The other 21 attempts all ended in failure.

I'm not attributing any magical qualities to Aiden O'Brien's training techniques here. I suspect his success is due to the fact that he tends to leave a lot to work on with his horses first time out.

In any event it is asking an awful lot of New Approach to win the Irish Derby having already run in three Classics this season. Maybe he'll do it. But right now I reckon he looks well worth opposing.

The Derby was rather a messy race this year because the early pace was slow enough to hurt the final time. Allowing for the rails movement and the slightly firmer ground I estimate that they ran the first mile and half a furlong in the Derby 2.4 seconds slower than they did in the Oaks. New Approach managed to make up half of this deficit in his sprint to the line, but it was pretty much a physical impossibility to do much more than that.

If the Derby had been a truly run race throughout my best guess, based on projecting from the runner's past speed ratings, is that New Approach would have earned a speed rating of 42 from me. However I'm not yet sure he can actually run that fast over this long a distance. He looked to be greatly helped here by the slow pace. This compacted the field and ensured New Approach was boxed in and unable to tear off too fast, however much he wanted to (and judged by the way he was throwing his head around he clearly wanted to). In a strongly run race there would have been bigger gaps between the runners and it might well have proven impossible for Kevin Manning to anchor New Approach.

In any event New Approach certainly showed plenty of zip when Manning let him loose up the straight, swerving to take a gap on the rails two furlongs out and then running very strongly from there all the way to the line despite wandering around a bit to hold the powerful finishing effort of the runner up TARTAN BEARER (36).

New Approach clearly has any amount of ability. If he were mine though I'd be inclined to rest him till the Autumn. This would give him a chance to recover and also ensure that he avoids the firm ground which seemed to cause him problems in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Tartan Bearer's jockey, Ryan Moore, not surprisingly said his mount could have done with a stronger early pace. Nonetheless he ran a really big race.

Tartan Bearer was second last of the sixteen runners in the early stages and still held that position with three furlongs to run. Once Ryan Moore pushed the button though it took just 36 of Tartan Bearer's big strides to hit the front. He tried valiantly to go with New Approach when that one headed him off. In fact I was surprised at the pace he managed to muster. But the winner was just the better.

It was a shrewd move on Ryan Moore's part to bring Tartan Bearer down the outside of the field instead of trying to fight his way through traffic. This ensured his mount never had to break stride all the way up the straight.

Tartan Bearer is a seriously good horse that will surely win a Group 1 this year. I should add though that having seen how he was able to sprint to the finish with New Approach I now have a doubt about whether he's truly a mile and a half horse. I know he's a brother to Golan who won the King George. But the pace he showed here has me thinking that he may well be best over ten furlongs and might not get the mile and a half in a more strongly run race.

Good as the first two are I have to say I was a bit surprised to see them both sprint away from CASUAL CONQUEST (33) in the last furlong. Dermot Weld's colt had looked an exceptional talent when clocking a proper Group 1 time to take the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial.

There were no obvious excuses for Casual Conquest from a traffic point of view. He did have to take up slightly after the start as some runners swerved across him. He also took a bump coming down the hill. But neither cost him much ground. He was always in the right place and looked to handle the course fine.

At first I thought it might be lack of stamina rather than ability that caused Casual Conquest to run a bit below from here. But thanks to the fairly slow early pace an obvious non-stayer like RIO DE LA PLATA (30) was able to finish quite close up. So I very much doubt that is the answer.

Then I figured that perhaps it was lack of pace rather than stamina which did for Casual Conquest - until I remembered that tremendous burst of speed he showed in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. That took him from last to first in just twenty strides, little more than half the time it took Tartan Bearer to make up a similar amount of ground to hit the front here.

On balance I think that it was lack of experience which caused Casual Conquest to underperform here. In my experience even the very best horses find it a shock to the system the first time they take on truly top class opponents. Often they run below form the first time this happens.

Certainly Id expect Casual Conquest to improve on this effort, particularly off a stronger early pace. I'm scared of the first two but he'll probably be my choice if the trio meet again in the Irish Derby.

DOCTOR FREMANTLE (32) improved from eighth soon after the start to be one of three horses pretty much in a line chasing the front runner. Entering the straight he was asked to kick on and proceeded to duel with KANADAHAR RUN (10). That one gave best after about a furlong. But then Doctor Fremantle found himself totally swamped for speed by the first, second and third.

Doctor Fremantle would have hit the same speed rating of 38 that he earned from me for winning the Chester Vase if the Derby had been truly run. He also earned a rating of 38 from me on his seasonal debut. This is probably as good as he is. But that's not bad at all, and I still have a suspicion that he could develop into a live St Leger prospect.

Kandahar Run clearly didn't stay and needs to go back to ten furlongs.

CURTAIN CALL (29) hung and ran below form just as he had the only other time he ran on a fast surface in the Racing Post Trophy. I've yet to give him a decent speed rating in seven starts and need some convincing that he's likely to win a Group race this year. Then again on softer ground and over a longer trip he could be rather interesting given his stout pedigree. No doubt he will be steered towards the St Leger.

FROZEN FIRE (28) had clocked a very fast time when running Tartan Bearer close in the Dante. But he was never happy this time. His jockey said he didn't come down the hill at all well. Certainly he got rather wobbly as he had to change leads entering the straight. Thereafter he looked rather unbalanced as he raced with his head slightly in the air and ran around a bit. Nonetheless he kept on pretty strongly and clearly had no problem with the distance. Indeed he is a German bred with masses of stamina in his pedigree. So he looks another St Leger candidate to take out of the race. Meanwhile he needs to have another crack at winning a Group 1 over a mile and a half. I can't say at this stage he won't be good enough to do that seeing how fast he ran at York.

SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE SENT TO COVENTRY

Trainer Howard Johnson says that he's not worried whether SOUTH CENTRAL (33) goes for the Norfolk Stakes over five furlongs or the Coventry Stakes over six furlongs at Royal Ascot. But, after watching the horse romp home by thirteen lengths at Carlisle on his racecourse debut, I'm convinced that the longer race is the best option.

First of all, although South Central won over five furlongs at Carlisle it's worth bearing in mind that the track is a very stiff one, there was cut in the ground and the pace was strong throughout. So it rode more like a six furlong race.

Secondly despite being pretty close-coupled and muscular, South Central doesn't have the build of an out and out five furlong horse. He's actually quite tall, something you rarely see in a five furlong specialist. In fact I can readily see him stretching his stamina to seven furlongs, maybe even a mile.

Thirdly South Central's sire Forest Camp was best over six furlongs but also won a Grade 2 over seven furlongs and ran second in another Grade 2 over eight and a half furlongs. Plus everything I can trace on the dam's side of his family stayed a mile or more.

South Central was certainly most impressive as he showed no sign of greenness and simply powered away from his rivals. I would not however go with the Racing Post report which suggests he could have scored by an additional seven lengths if he'd not been eased. In fact it was only in the last six strides his jockey stopped riding. And he eased him so slightly and so late I doubt it made much difference to the margin - a length at most.

In any even South Central is clearly smart. And the stats say he will be one of the big players if he does line up for the Coventry.

AL SHEMALI (36) was awfully impressive when winning a valuable handicap at Nad Al Sheba in January. He chased the pacemaker, moved alongside him after the two furlong pole and the sprinted six lengths clear in 25 strides before being eased right down in the last one hundred yards. He clocked a Listed class time, but it would have been Group class if he hadn't been so heavily eased. He hasn't scored in two starts since. But he probably needed his comeback run and his latest outing at Goodwood was rather promising.

At Goodwood Al Shemali lost narrowly in Listed company, and there were excuses. First of all he bumped into one rival a couple of furlongs from the finish and then took another slight bump from the runner up. In addition his jockey lost his whip. On balance though it looks like the step up to a mile and a half was his undoing as he looked a winner all the way until his run flattened out in the final furlong.

Al Shemali is a good looking horse, with a fast ground action who does look more like a ten than twelve furlong sort to my eye. It may be that he disliked the tight, undulating track. But I'd like to see him back over ten furlongs next time. I don't yet know whether he's going to be a Group 1 horse. However I would be wary of opposing him below that class on fast ground at ten furlongs.

BANKABLE MIGHT WELL BE A GROUP 1 HORSE

BANKABLE (40) is understandably a red hot favorite for the Royal Hunt Cup after running away with a Listed race at Goodwood in Group 2 class time.

This big, handsome, muscular horse lost on his racecourse debut but has won his four starts since. He was moving really easily in the closing stages here and it looked like he could well have gone a fair bit faster if pressed. This suggests he may well be a Group 1 horse.

I liked the way Bankable willingly worked his way through traffic without hesitation here. If there's one concern I have it's that his last three wins have been with cut in the ground. Given his size it might just be he's not so good on the firm ground that invariably prevails at Royal Ascot. There's not enough evidence to say for sure, but on balance I feel that he moves so well and has such acceleration fast ground won't be a problem.

MILITARY POWER TAKES CONTROL AT REDCAR

MILITARY POWER (37) became one of the fastest maiden winners of the season when scoring at Redcar over ten furlongs. He was always moving well in around fourth spot behind the strong pace and closed up pretty smoothly as the front runners began to come back to the field early in the straight. He required a bit of stoking up to forge clear but kept on strongly to score by three lengths.

Military Power is a deep-chested strong sort that clearly has a lot more stamina than any of his immediate relatives. I strongly suspect that he will prove best over a mile and a half rather than the ten furlongs of this contest. He also looks to have a stride that's designed for fast ground.

The logical target for Military Power is the valuable King George V handicap at Royal Ascot. Seeing that he ran a Listed class time here he has to rate as one of the big players for that race. If he's kept to a mile and a quarter I'd worry about him getting done for pace in a race more slowly run than this one was.

CORRYBROUGH COULD BE ANYTHING

Henry Candy has an amazing knack with sprinters. And he looks to have another top class prospect on his hands in CORRYBROUGH (39) who routed his rivals in a three year old Conditions race over five furlongs at Beverley.

Corrybrough is a really big horse with a huge stride. I'd guess he must weigh something like 1,300 pounds.

Early on Corrybourgh was stone last. And with a furlong to go he was still three or four lengths down. But he took off from there and powered away to win by two and a half lengths, finishing full of running.

Corrybrough has improved markedly with every single one of his starts on my speed ratings. And it certainly looked like he could have run faster here. It's tempting to say that he really wants six furlongs. But in a more competitive race the early pace would be stronger. So I'd hold out real hopes of Candy realizing his ambition of winning the Prix Abbaye with this giant of a horse.

Corrybrough has shown that he likes soft ground. So even though he won on a fast surface here I'd prefer more cut in the ground for him in the future seeing how big he is.

NOTA BENE HAS A REAL SHOT IN WOKINGHAM

NOTA BENE (39) looked a serious candidate for Champion sprinter when winning a Listed race in Fantastic time three years ago at Newbury. But he started breaking blood vessels and ran a series of clunkers in the handful of starts he managed afterwards. Until that is his seasonal debut this term at Great Leighs where he once more clocked a terrific time.

Nota Bene sat second, clear of the rest, behind Tamagin (37) who can go a serious early gallop. He certainly did here and soon had everything else in trouble. But Nota Bene stuck with him, moved upsides shortly after entering the straight, and began forging clear in the last 100 yards after dueling with him.

Horses that break blood vessels are invariably at their best on fast ground and need to be fresh. That is they're good for their first two runs of the season and then need a break of at least five weeks to run well again.

Nota Bene will still be fresh for the Wokingham and looks one of the big players for that race.

PLEASE SING FOR QUEEN MARY

Mick Channon has done it yet again. He's produced another in a long series of high class sprinting juvenile fillies with PLEASE SING (35) who won in seriously good time on her racecourse debut at Leicester.

Please Sing is a narrow, rather tall filly who broke well and was always close up in the first three, moving strongly. She had the lead before the furlong pole but didn't seem to realize that she was required to do anything more than had been asked from her in a morning workout. But then the runner-up OUR WEE GIRL (33) did her a favour by swerving towards her in the last 100 yards or so. This appeared to wake Please Sing up and give her enough of an adrenaline rush to spurt away from her rival and win by over a length, still looking full of run as she passed the line.

My feeling is that Please Sing could have pulled out another length or two if she'd been more experienced. She still ended up earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a juvenile filly this year. So she must now rank as the logical favourite for the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.

There's no question that Please Sing will stay six furlongs. And on looks and pedigree there must be every chance she'll get a mile later on.

Our Wee Girl was green, as she did on her debut, and ought to be able to improve on this. Right now my ratings indicate she's just borderline pattern class. But that should be more than good enough to secure her a maiden win in the near future.

PROWL (33) is a nice looking filly that kept on well to take third spot on her racecourse debut. She should do even better over six furlongs and looks a decent prospect.

PUNJABI MAKES IT SIX IN A ROW IN SMALL FIELDS

PUNJABI (37) followed up his recent Newmarket success with another good win over a shorter trip at Sandown. He asserted in the last furlong from the useful DAKIYAH (36) as the pair drew away from the rest.

The thing to bear in mind with Punjabi, as I've mentioned before, is that he does seem best in small fields. He did win a novice hurdle and a couple of class 6 contests on the flat in big fields. But he's lost ten times out of ten in fields of eleven or more in better company. This was the sixth time in a row he's won in smaller fields.

French import Dakiyah was rated eight pounds higher than his current mark last year in France and seems every bit as good now. He's a good-bodied horse that has the physique to do well over hurdles. Meanwhile he's surely good enough to win a couple of middle-distance handicaps on the flat.

SMOKEY OAKEY SMART WITH CUT IN THE GROUND

Lincoln winner SMOKEY OAKEY (39) showed that he gets ten furlongs when coming from the back to win the Brigadier Gerard Stakes in a photo from MARAAHEL (39). He's now won five of the seven times he's run on ground that's officially good to soft or softer at a mile or more.

I imagine Smokey Oakey will be rested pretty soon till the Autumn given the prevalence of fast ground during the Summer months. If he is then I can see him progressing a bit further and scoring again in Group company. He might even have a shot in the Champion Stakes if the going and the opposition came up soft.

Maraahel has now lost all 14 times he's run in Group 1 company. But if photo finishes had gone the other way in his last two starts he would now have won the last seven times he's run in lower class races. He certainly looked the likely winner here with a furlong to go, and I rather suspect he might have got the better of Smokey Oakey if the pair hadn't been separated by the width of the track. As it was Smokey Oakey had something to race with in the closing stages and Maraahel didn't.

PIPEDREAMER (38) also finished strongly to take a close third place. He's still a very promising, lightly-raced horse who might just progress to the top level. Looking at him race I got the feeling he'd have preferred faster ground.

REGIME (38) is very consistent around ten furlongs with a bit of cut in the ground and ran yet another good race to finish a close fourth. He should be able to win another Group race sometime this season over this trip when he gets his ground.

FINJAAN IS SERIOUSLY CLASSY

Richard Hannon won the National Stakes yet again with ICESOLATOR (35) and has now won six of the last twelve times he's had a runner in the Sandown contest. But although the winner is a mature, good-bodied, useful two year old I'd be surprised if the runner up FINJAAN (33) doesn't improve past him on faster ground.

Finjaan is a very good looking, muscular, mature sort that already looks like a three year old. But he has a fast ground action and didn't look at ease on the soft surface. In addition he showed clear signs of his inexperience early on by refusing to settle and throwing his head about. This gave his jockey no choice but to anchor him in behind the other runners.

The jig looked to be up for Finjaan with a furlong and a half to go. But he then produced a really big move, the type that only a high class horse can make. This took him into second place. His effort flattened out slightly up the final climb but he was still gaining on the winner all the way to the line.

I still see Finjaan as a very good prospect for Royal Ascot where the likely firmer surface will suit him much better.

Third placed FOUNDATION ROOM (31) had run much better when winning on a faster surface on her racecourse debut. She too looks likely to improve back on quicker ground.

PATKAI COULD BE A LEGER PROSPECT

PATKAI (37) continued the improvement he's shown with every start this term to take a hot mile and a half handicap at Haydock in Listed class time.

Patkai is a big, strong, good-bodied sort with a long stride, the kind that any jumps trainer would give their eye teeth for. Here he was outpaced in the early stages behind the searching gallop. He must have been almost twenty lengths back in last place at one stage. As the field entered the straight though the pace-setters came back to the field and Patkai closed up. The further they went the better he looked. He ended up striking the front well before the furlong pole. And though he ran green from there he steadily forged clear to win full of running.

Patkai looks likely to benefit from an even longer trip than he ran over here. And softer ground wouldn't be a bad thing either. Long term he could easily develop into a St Leger candidate. Right now it would be interesting to see him shoot for the Queen's Vase. I'm not sure he'd have the pace for the King George V handicap but he'd warrant close inspection in that race too.

SAMUEL WANTS TWO MILES PLUS

SAMUEL (39) clocked a very good time to beat the useful TRANQUIL TIGER (38) in a strongly run Listed race over a mile and three quarters at York. It didn't look like he was going to get there a furlong out. But his stamina finally kicked in from there and he rallied really strongly to go by the runner up and clear away late.

I agree with jockey Eddie Ahern's view that Samuel will appreciate a softer surface. He's a great big long striding sort who initially looked a bit hesitant to let himself down fully in the closing stages. But mostly I think that Samuel is crying out for a step up to two miles plus. The searching early pace of this race revealed that he seems to have almost bottomless reserves of stamina.

The race I'd like to see Samuel shoot for is the Queen Alexandar Stakes over two and three quarter miles at Royal Ascot. He'd be one of my bankers for the big meeting if he contested that.

HIMALYA NOT QUITE READY TO CLIMB THE HEIGHTS

With two furlongs to go the six furlong maiden juvenile won by HIMALYA (33) on his racecourse debut looked a pretty ordinary race. A whole bunch of horses were disputing the lead or close to it. But from there Himalya and the runner up SEAWAY (32) rapidly drew away from the rest in the way that only pattern class horses can.

Himalya was moving really well and looked set to go right away. But he'd been edging towards the stands rail throughout and once there was nothing between him and it he drifted there alarmingly and looked to either collide with it or be snatched up to stop him doing so. He kept on from there but had totally lost concentration and cocked his head violently to the left and drifted that way when his jockey tried to correct him and get him to accelerate in the last fifty yards or so.

I've adjusted the speed rating for the race on the formula I use to take account of sectional times for two year old races. These show that Himalya came home about two fifths of a second quicker over the last three furlongs than the winner of the 0-95 Classified Stakes for three year olds later on the card.

I've little doubt that Himalya is Group class and could have earned a rating of 36 or better from me here if he'd kept focused in the last furlong. Clearly he's smart. But I echo the sentiments of his trainer Jeremy Noseda who said he wondered whether Himalya was mentally ready for the challenge of the Coventry Stakes next time.

Himalya is a well proportioned, well balanced, muscular, mature sort who has a nice stride. He has the build of a miler. So if he develops the right way he could easily end up a Guineas prospect. If he were mine I'd be inclined to throw him into the deep end in the Coventry Stakes in the belief that he'll learn more from losing that race than he will by winning a lesser contest.

VIVA RENALDO SHOULD IMPROVE

THUNDEROUS MOOD (33) franked the form of Saucy Brown when taking a decent maiden juvenile race at York. But I suspect that the runner up VIVA RENALDO (32) is going to improve past him.

Viva Renaldo is a pretty big, good-bodied, muscular mature sort who looks built for quite a bit longer than the five furlongs of this race. He pulled hard early because the pace wasn't that strong, giving his rider no option but to settle him in behind. He made a good looking run from two furlongs out. But it's hard to gain ground in a sprint finish and in addition Viva Renaldo was running rather green. He had his head up slightly, didn't seem anywhere near as focused as the winner and was inclined to shift his ground. He maintained the challenge but ended up going under by three parts of a length.

Over six furlongs or off a stronger pace next time I'd be surprised if Viva Renaldo didn't lose his maiden tag. After that he might well prove pattern class.

EXCELLENT SHOW NOT WITHOUT A SHOT IN QUEEN MARY

EXCELLENT SHOW (32) clocked a time just shy of pattern class when taking a decent three runner maiden at Musselburgh. She reared as the stalls opened but was soon tracking the leader Rievaulx World (29). By two furlongs out she'd moved alongside with her jockey sitting motionless. It looked like he was hoping Rievaulx World would tire and he could let his mount win un-extended. But a furlong out it was clear this wasn't going to happen. So he started riding his mount along a bit with hands and heels, twice looking across at this rival to see if he needed to do any more to keep edging clear.

Excellent Show passed the line still full of running and could clearly have run a fair bit faster if she'd been fully ridden out. She's a mature sort with plenty of pace who is not without a shot in the Queen Mary.