VISION D’ETAT HAS MORE PACE NOW

VISION D’ETAT (42) confirmed with his win in Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot that he’s developed a bit more of a finishing kick with age. True he was under pressure at one point during the sprint finish. But he then managed to pick up the leaders and hold off TARTAN BEARER (42) and NEVER ON SUNDAY (42) without giving an inch in the closing stages.

Vision D’Etat is a wonderfully consistent and versatile horse that is a great advertisement for keeping a Classic winner in training. My feeling in that he’d still have a bit of a problem coping with the flat out sprint finishes of international races in Hong Kong and America at ten furlongs but that over twelve he’d be up to the job. Meanwhile back in Europe he has real prospects of scoring again at the top level before the season is out.

Never On Sunday has basically the same level of ability as Vision D’Etat on my speed ratings. And I thought he might well be able to do his compatriot for a turn of foot here. But things didn’t go right for him. He was marooned on the outside when the sprint began and started drifting in towards Tartan Bearer. His jockey switched his whip to his left hand and gave him a crack to keep him off the runner up but unfortunately it caused Never On Sunday to jink quite sharply right close home and lose a bit of momentum. It looked clear that this cost Never On Sunday second place.

I rather suspect that off a stronger early pace Never On Sunday would have been able to win this. The two that finished in front of him are very solid Group 1 horses, but my feeling is that Never On Sunday has a bit of brilliance about him that they lack and will prove the better horse in the long run.

Tartan Bearer now looks a decent prospect to take a Group 1 at some time this season. But his

connections are going to have to be very careful how they place him. He’s only just good enough to win a race at the top level and there are a worryingly large number of good middle distance horses about, especially at ten furlongs.

 

GLASS HARMONIUM COULD BE GROUP 1 CLASS

This year’s Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot was a red hot contest run in very decent Group 2 class time. The winner GLASS HARMONIUM (40) came with a wet sail as the furious early gallop began to tell and despite hanging in rather badly got up to win still moving strongly at the line.

Glass Harmonium has plenty of stamina in his pedigree and the strong pace brought it into play here. There has to be a real chance that he’s going to be at least competitive in Group 1 company when stepped up to a mile and a half.

Runner up CASHELGAR (40) is built and bred for at least ten furlongs. So he cannot have been suited to the seven and seven and a half furlong races he tried at two. Nonetheless he ran second in both of them, in the latest of them getting swamped for finishing speed by the high class Feels All Right (very possibly a Group 1 horse).

In his sole previous start at three Cashelgar made all to win a fair Conditions race over ten and a half furlongs at Saint-Cloud. He set a very slow gallop and started sprinting as they hit the two and a half furlong homestraight. He ended up winning the sprint to the line by half a length but was moving very smoothly in the last 100 yards and beginning to get well on top.

The bare form of that win rated a bit below Listed class. But it looked likely Cashelgar was a bit better than the bare form and he certainly proved that at Ascot. He had to bump third placed MONITOR CLOSELY (36) quite hard to force his way out with two furlongs to go. Monitor Closely is a bigger horse so the bump can’t have helped Cashelgar’s chances. Not could the fact that he got squeezed up on the rail when the winner hung across the track.

There are so many good middle distance three year old colts in Europe this year that I don’t know exactly where Cashelgar can go. But he’s a good Group 2 horse at least with the potential to improve as he gains experienced.

You have to feel sorry for Monitor Closely who was given torrid time by the first two. First he got bumped by the runner up. Then he got squeezed out between him and the winner and had to be snatched up.

Monitor Closely would not have won with a clear run. He was putting his head to the side as he always does when racing on firm ground. On a softer surface he remains a threat to win a big race.

 

CAMPANOLOGIST A SERIOUS THREAT TO CONDUIT IN KING GEORGE

Until the Hardwicke Stakes had been run I thought the King George was going to be pretty much a slam dunk for Conduit. But CAMPANOLOGIST (42) showed at Ascot that he’s going to be a serious threat to Conduit at the same course next month.

I was rather struck with Campanologist on his seasonal debut in a red hot renewal of the Brigadier Gerard. He has grown and strengthened up markedly since last season. He's now a good-sized, classy looking colt that looks built to be a twelve furlong specialist. He shows a flowing, daisy-cutting stride which indicates he must have fast ground. In addition he’s got a really deep chest and is now a powerful colt that surely needs a mile and half

It certainly looked like Campanologist had lost a bit of pace and gained a lot of strength at Sandown. And he confirmed that he now prefers the longer distance by clocking a lifetime best speed rating when just going under to the very smart BRONZE CANNON (42) in the Hardwicke Stakes.

It looked like Campanologist had the race in safe keeping when he surged into the lead with two furlongs to run. But after having to be switched out sharply for his run he became unbalanced, rolled back towards the rail and just allowed Bronze Cannon to get by him. My feeling is that if he’d kept straight and balanced he’d have won by about half a length.

This was a huge run by Campanologist and marks him out as one of the top mile and a half horses on the planet. As a punter I’m now fervently hoping that his trainer now cuts him back to ten furlongs for the Eclipse because he’d never have the pace for the race now. So with a second place finish in a Group 2 followed by an unplaced effort in the Eclipse I could see him starting at something like 16-1 in the King George. He’d be a fabulous bet at that sort of price.

Last year most observers felt Campanologist stole the King Edward VII Stakes thanks to a clever front running ride from Dettori who slowed the pace down. But the runner up Conduit has since shown that he can produce a fantastic turn of foot. So, on reflection I think we need to give Campanologist a good deal more credit for that performance. After all Conduit has won all his other three starts over a mile and a half or more, and they include the St Leger and the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Campanologist was kept to ten furlongs for his three runs since his Royal Ascot win. That, together with the fact that the horse didn't run after July last year may seem strange and even worrying. But it looks clear that is connections were simply looking after what they saw as a great long term prospect.

After he won at this meeting last year Saeed bin Suroor said the horse needed time to grow and that he'd be much better in a year's time. Well, he's had that time and he's definitely grown a good deal and improved significantly as a result.

The winner Bronze Cannon is clearly a Group 1 horse too. I thought that he needed a longer homestraight to unwind his run. But the scorching early pace set by Barshiba pulled him into the race. Normally I still think he needs a homestraight of at least three furlongs to produce his best. This makes him harder to place than Campanologist.

Britain’s top Polytrack horse DANSANT (40) ran a big race to finish third. He deserves a shot at the Breeders’ Cup Marathon at Santa Anita.

NOWHERE TO GO BUT ECLIPSE WITH MASTERCRAFTSMAN

I have to say I'm very impressed at the way Aidan O'Brien managed to get another Group 1 win out of MASTERCRAFTSMAN (40) over a mile in the St James' Palace Stakes. He's really a bit tall and long striding to be fully effective at the distance, and he doesn't have the push-button acceleration of many top milers. However O'Brien managed to counteract this by adopting his highly successful dual pacemaker policy to ensure a searching end to end gallop.

Both Mastercraftsman's pacemakers were being ridden along right form the start to keep the pressure on. And Mastercraftsman split the pair, running second and moving much more smoothly. He kicked on soon after entering the straight, got headed briefly when DELEGATOR (40) made a run at him but rallied and was going away again in the last 25 yards to win by a rather long looking neck.

I doubt that we'll see Mastercraftsman run over a mile again. He's been crying out for the step up to a mile and a quarter. And the blindingly obvious race to try that has to be the Eclipse where the steep uphill finish will counter his lack of acceleration. I have my doubts whether he'll be able to hold off the late finish of Cima De Triomphe in that race. But he should improve for the extra two furlongs and surely must go for the race.

Delegator, unfortunately, has fewer options. He's not going to be staying more than a mile and there's no obvious reason he should improve the length or two needed to beat older horses in Group 1 company. I just don't know where he goes form here.

AUSSIE SPRINTERS ARE A DIFFERENT BREED

It is tempting to believe that all populations of racehorses are basically the same. But the truth is some are very different to others. And the differences become most apparent when members of two different populations race against each other.

No better example of this can be had than that of Australia. It is now abundantly clear that while European horses have a serious edge over Australian ones at a mile and a half or more sprinters from Australia have an equally big advantage in Europe.

European horses Media Puzzle and Taufan's Melody never won anything better than Listed races over here. But in Australia they proved good enough to win the Group 1 Melbourne and Caulfield Cups.

Australian sprinters have shown similar 'improvement' in Europe. And one race they've farmed is the Kings Stand Stakes over five furlongs at Ascot. Before this year Australian runners had contested the race four times and only lost it once (by just half a length). This year SCENIC BLAST (43) made it four out of five for the Australians.

Like most speedballs from down under Scenic Blast is really big and powerful. He also has the same phenomenal early pace.

It was odd to watch Scenic Blast seemingly ambling along in the early stages of the Kings Stand, moving very comfortably, while his European rivals were all flat to the boards. It was obvious from some way out that once he eased to the front the race would be over, and that's exactly how it turned out.

Yes FLEETING SPRIT (42) came out of the pack to close the gap to three quarters of a length at the line. But Scenic Blast was always moving smoothly and would probably have won by a wider margin had his jockey delayed his move.

Past experience shows that European sprinters have a slightly better shot at beating the Australians over six furlongs than they do at five. But anyone seeing this run from Scenic Blast will surely be scratching their heads to come up with anything to beat him in the July Cup.

Fleeting Spirit is quite some sprinter when she's fresh as she was here. She's now going to be laid off till the Nunthorpe to give her the best possible chance of finally landing that elusive Group 1. With Hungarian speedball Overdose absent and no Aussies likely to start she'll surely have a big chance there.

PACO BOY STILL UNSTOPPABLE IN SMALL FIELDS

For some horses it's the quantity rather than the quality of the opposition that's important. This certainly seems to be the case with PACO BOY (41) who won the Queen Anne Stakes.

Paco Boy is only a medium sized horse and tends to come off worst in the traffic problems that usually develop in big fields.

Jockey Richard Hughes says Paco Boy had to check twice in the sixteen runner Dubai Duty Free in March. He got a bit squeezed for room when third in the eleven runner Prix du Moulin according to trainer Richard Hannon. And he had a troubled passage in the nineteen runner French Guineas. But in small fields he's proven unstoppable.

So far Paco Boy has won nine times out of nine in fields of ten or less and lost all five times he's run in fields of eleven or more. If he gets a suitably small field in the Sussex Stakes he'll be the one to beat. And I have to agree with his trainer Richard Hannon that the one race to avoid with him is the Breeders' Cup Mile. It would be pointless running him around the tight turns of Santa Anita in the bunched, sprint finish that race invariably produces.

The big shock in the race was the appalling run of Dubai Duty Free winner GLADIATORUS (21). He's the best horse in the world, both on official figures and mine, so his near twenty length flop was astonishing. If he'd run to the form he'd shown in Dubai he would have won this comfortably.

Barring some unreported physical problem, the most likely explanation for the dreadful run of Gladiatorus was the straight course.

Gladiatorus is a free running horse. He blasted five lengths clear at a very strong pace here before folding. It now seems probable that he needs a turn to curb his exuberance and a relatively short homestraight.

The only previous time that Gladiatorus ran on a straight course was when he finished sixth by seven and a half lengths in a Group 3 at a two year old. That stood as his worst lifetime run till his Queen Anne disaster.

The only time that Gladiatorus has run on a track with a really long homestraight was when he surrendered a four length lead up the half mile finishing stretch at San Siro when running second in the Gran Criterium. Gladiatorus has won nine of his ten starts on round courses with homestraights less than half a mile in length. He ran second in his sole loss and I'm betting he had some excuse.

The worrying question now is exactly where does Gladiatorus go from here? If my analysis is right he's going to be unsuited to pretty much all the big European races he's now entered in or could be entered in. The ones that don't feature straight courses or half mile plus homestraights have steep uphill finishes which will probably be just as bad for Gladiatorus.

It seems to me that Gladiatorus is on the wrong continent. In Europe there's basically nothing for him. But in America every track is dead flat, tight with a short homestraight. And the firm ground that Gladiatorus favours is the norm. He could easily rack up two or three Grade 1 wins there and end up a hot favourite for the Breeders' Cup Mile, a race he's eligible for without the need to pay a big supplementary entry fee.

CANFORD CLIFFS SHOULD GO FOR DEWHURST

CANFORD CLIFFS (39) earned a freakishly big speed rating from me for his debut win at Newbury and ran just a bit faster when hosing up in the Coventry. The weird thing is it looked like he could easily have pulled out another length or two if he'd been asked. If he had then he would have equaled the biggest speed rating I can recall ever giving a two year old.

Clearly Canford Cliffs is rather an oddity. We haven't seen an early season two year old as fast as him in a decade or more. So I don't think we'll really get the chance to see just how good he is till the better youngsters start to emerge later in the season.

Right now Canford Cliffs is running as fast as some of the very best three year olds. In fact he's

so big and mature he already looks like a three year old. He could very well turn out to be just as dominant at the end of the season as he is now.

The burning question is whether Canford Cliffs will get a mile. The bookies have made him favourite for the 2000 Guineas and it may well be that just this once the early betting on the race won't turn out to be such a joke.

Canford Cliffs certainly has the physique to go a mile. He doesn't have the short neck or blocky physique of a sprinter. He's actually rather tall and has a really big stride on him.

If he were mine I'd ease up on Canford Cliffs and forget about the July Stakes which his connections mentioned after his Coventry success. It's a waste of this fine horse's talent to run him in anything but Group 1 company.

I'd like to see Canford Cliffs aimed for the Dewhurst Stakes. I'm now rather sure that he'll stay the seven furlongs of that race which would make a good stepping stone to the Guineas. Thinking further ahead I rather suspect he'll need his first run next year as he's such a big horse. So he could end up losing the Craven or the Greenham and still win the Guineas.

Meanwhile I don't suppose it will do any harm to let Canford Cliffs mop up the Prix Morny or the Phoenix Stakes. He's clearly going to be a stallion prospect and it will be good to get a Group 1 win under his belt.

DO NOT TRUST THE DERBY FORM

Over the past couple of years Aidan O'Brien has revolutionised the top middle distance races in Europe with his innovative dual pacemaker policy. By employing one weak pacemaker and one strong one to take over when the weak one tires he's ensured that many of the top races have been run at a searching end to end gallop. This has meant the best horse has usually won, and most often it's been one of Aidan O'Brien's.

But in the Derby O'Brien's dual pacemaker policy went horribly wrong. For some reason the stronger of the two pacemakers made the early running while the weaker one chased him. And between them they managed to actually slow the pace down instead of speeding it up. As a result they gifted the race to SEA THE STARS (39) who led the chasing pack when the sprint for home began and made it near impossible for their stablemates to make up the advantage the Guineas winner had been able to steal on them.

There's a limit to how fast a horse can run. So when there's a sprint finish it's very hard indeed for a horse to gain much more than a length or two. And MASTEROFTHHORSE (38) and RIP VAN WINKLE (38) were a good deal more than a length or two behind Sea The Stars when the sprint began.

I've developed a pretty reliable sectional timing formula for figuring out the merit of a slow run race. And it tells me Sea The Stars ran a length per mile below his Guineas form when winning the Derby. If Masterofthehorse or Rip Van Winkle had been within hailing distance of him when the sprint began they would have passed him. That's what my numbers say.

FAME AND GLORY (38) was the only member of the Coolmore team close enough to make some sort of challenge to Sea The Stars when the sprint began. But I've never rated him that highly.

Rip Van Winkle and Masterofthehorse gained two lengths and four lengths respectively on Sea The Stars during the sprint over the last three furlongs. If either of them had been as close as Fame And Glory was, or if their pacemakers had done their job I'm convinced they'd have run first and second. And if the pace had been as strong as it should have been I'm equally certain that Sea The Stars would not have lasted home.

As I see it the two horses to take out of the Derby are Masterofthehorse and Rip Van Winkle. I'm going to oppose Sea The Stars with some confidence if he tries a mile and a half again in the Irish Derby.

WHY WASN'T SARISKA DISQUALIFIED?

A 'Demolition Derby' is a motor race in which the drivers seek to put their competitors out of the race by crashing into them repeatedly. If you're not familiar with the concept I'd invite you to watch the video of this year's Oaks at Epsom. The winner SARISKA (39) managed to severely impede four of her rivals either by swerving across them or bumping other horses onto them. She also carried the runner up across the track towards the rails and carried the third the other way briefly.

As I see it, if Sariska didn't transgress the rules enough to warrant being disqualified then there's something wrong with the rules.

Or maybe it's simply the way the rules are being interpreted these days in Britain. I ran a test on Raceform Interactive and found that 119 of the 60,084 winners of British flat and jump races were disqualified from 1996 to 2003 but from 2004 to date only 26 out of the 48,615 winners were disqualified. In other words the percentage of disqualified winners in Britain has dropped from 0.2% to 0.05% - a quarter of what it was.

Can we say for sure that MIDDAY (39) would not have won instead of losing by a head if Sariska, a bigger horse, had not carried her towards the rails and caused her to bump other horses? Can we say for sure that RAINBOW VIEW (34) wouldn't have got up had Sariska not swerved across her, causing her to be snatched up sharply and lose her balance thereafter?

And what about the severe interference Sariska caused to Phillipina, Wadaat and Perfect Truth? Does that count for nothing?

Surely if a horse, whether deliberately or accidentally, causes such severe interference to so many rivals it simply must be disqualified whether or not the stewards feel it might have won anyway. To do anything else encourages dangerous riding.

That said Sariska clocked a fast time and is clearly a useful middle distance filly. She's not quite quick enough to beat the colts on this run, but it's possible she'll progress. It's hard to be sure when you're basing predictions on such a messy race.

My feeling is that Midday will turn out to be the better horse. Indeed the very fact that trainer Henry Cecil ran her in the Oaks suggests she's very good indeed. He has now won the race eight of the twelve times that he's had a runner. And if Midnight Line and All At Sea had only stayed better and Midday not been hampered his Oaks record might well read eleven wins from twelve tries.

If this result had gone her way, and I think it should have, then Midday would have won three of the four times she's run on a fast surface beyond sprint trips and finished second to the smart colt Debussy in her only loss. She has the pace to go ten furlongs and the stamina to last twelve. I see her winning a Group 1 at some point.

HIGH HEELED (37) showed that she does not need cut in the ground to produce something close to her best form. The extra distance was all that was required. She stayed on relentlessly all the way to the line to finish a good third. She might not be good enough if supplemented for the Irish Oaks but if it turned up soft at the Curragh she's be rather interesting.

I had thought OH GOODNESS ME (25) would do well over the longer distance. But she was tiring badly from two furlongs out and her jockey let her come home in her own time. She seemed to handle the tight turns, the gradients and the fast ground perfectly fine. It was just the final quarter mile that did her in. She'll always do that bit better on softer ground because she lacks pace. But I'd still be interested in her chances over ten furlongs whatever the going. This is a classy filly that should not be under-estimated. I rate her as good as the first and second on my speed figures.

BUCCELLATI SHOULD HAVE WON THIS

When a horse that's gone close in a big international Group 1 runs in an ordinary Group 1 it's usually a good bet. I certainly thought this was true of BUCCELLATTI (29) in the Coronation Cup. Seeing that he was up against a bunch of second division Group 1 runners I made him my best bet of the meeting. The fact that he had a much better turn of foot than any of them only added to my confidence.

Sure enough Buccellati quickened up to challenge on the inside approaching the two furlong pole, clearly going the best. But he was then bumped in the most brutal fashion by the much bigger Frozen Fire (36). And from the race being a matter of how far Buccellati would win it became a question of whether he'd be able to stay on his feet. It was scary to watch him being buffeted so badly between Frozen Fire and the running rail. For several strides it looked sure he'd be brought down. Thankfully he didn't fall. But he'd lost all momentum and his chance and his jockey sensibly allowed him to come home in his own time from there.

This kind of thing does the image of racing no good at all. But I think it's fair to say that it was the much smaller size of Buccellati and Epsom's dreaded counter camber which made this incident look so bad.

Seeing that he has the ability and turn of foot to win much more valuable international races I don't think there's much point in running Buccellati in the Hardwicke Stakes. Besides it's probably a good idea for him to have a break after such an unnerving experience.

I'm looking forward to getting the chance to bet Buccellati in a valuable international race like the Bosporus Cup, the Canadian International, the Japan Cup or the Hong Kong Vase later on this season. He showed when winning that wild sprint finish at Chester for the Ormonde Stakes that he has the turn of foot which wins big races abroad.

With Buccellati out of the race, it was left to Ask (39), Youmzain (39), Look Here (39) and Duncan (39) to fight out a four way scramble for the win. When I adjust my speed rating to take account of the sprint finish it indicates their performances ranked as weak Group 2 so I can't recommend any of them as being worth following at the top level.

WITHOUT A PRAYER LOOKS SURE TO WIN SOON

If there's one racecourse that I'd happily see bulldozed and built over with bungalows it's undoubtedly Epsom. At every Epsom meeting the crazy gradients and counter camber on the course can be relied on to cause horses to become unbalanced or meet traffic problems and lose - horses which would have won on any other track.

One sorry example of this was WITHOUT A PRAYER (37) in the Diomed Stakes on Oaks day. The poor horse was bottled up on the rail with nowhere to go all the way up the homestraight. He was moving so strongly that jockey Seb Sanders was understandably reluctant to drop him back and swing around his rivals because he'd so clearly have been able to burst through any gap in short order and win the race if only one had opened. But a furlong or so out Sanders saw the writing was on the wall and eased his mount back to try and find a run only for another horse to move alongside and block him in once more.

I noted Without A Prayer as a likely future Group winner when he ran such a promising race in the Winter Derby. I reckon he'd have won a Group race here if only he'd managed to get a run and see him as a horse that's sure to win soon.

CIMA DE TRIOMPHE THE ONE TO BEAT IN ECLIPSE

The Brigadier Gerard comes at just the right time for many top class middle distances preparing for later targets. So it frequently attracts Group 1 runners. But this year's edition was the best yet. Group 1 winners ran first and second in what was an incredibly strong contest that is surely going to produce stacks of future big race winners.

First past the post was CIMA DE TRIOMPHE (41) who clocked a seriously fast time which would have been a length or two faster if only he'd been able to get a run earlier.

After breaking smartly, Cima De Triomphe was eased back into sixth position. But it became evident from some way out that he was going to have trouble extricating himself as he was boxed in on every side. His jockey started to look for a run from three furlongs out but didn't panic or do anything drastic. He saw that a gap was slowly getting ready to open and went for it when it did one furlong out. Cima De Triomphe bounded forward and used his big, flowing stride to close the gap and get up on the line. He would have been a most unlucky loser if the photo hadn't gone his way.

My feeling is that with a clear run Cima De Triomphe would have won by around two lengths. If he had that would make him the best ten furlong horse in Europe on my ratings. And that's something I'm perfectly happy to believe having seen his previous run in the Prix Ganay.

The Ganay was the Italian Derby winner's first run for Luca Cumani. And, if you're a follower of the great trainer you'll know that this means he was almost certainly nowhere near to being fully fit. The fact that Cima De Triomphe sweated up before the race and pulled hard early as horses often do when they're too fresh following a break supports this idea.

Cima De Triomphe was dropped in last in the Ganay despite the slow early pace. He was still last when pulled out to make his run in the straight with two furlongs left to run. Unfortunately The Bogberry hung across him at this point, causing him to be taken up slightly. Then, just as he was being manouvered around that one, The Bogberry hung across him again, causing Cima De Triomphe to be taken up much more sharply.

Cima De Triomphe eventually managed to get a clear path and was simply swarming over everything when he did so, showing a tremendous turn of foot while moving really smoothly and strongly. Perhaps he wouldn't have got up with a clear run. But he certainly would have finished at least third, the same position the mighty Falbrav occupied in the same race on his first start for Cumani before winning him five Group 1's in 2003.

Before that run Cima De Triomphe had won all four times he'd run less than twelve furlongs on what race times indicate was good or faster ground - which he clearly needs seeing his daisy cutting stride pattern. He looks to be just a bit too pacey to get twelve furlongs properly, though he did get to within six lengths of the winner in the Arc.

Cima De Triomphe is a big, handsome horse that is clearly an international class performer over ten furlongs. In future I'd hope to see him ridden a little bit closer to the pace, like Falbrav used to be, to help him avoid the traffic problems that have beset him on his two starts this season.

Until I saw what Cima De Triomphe could do I thought the Eclipse Stakes was booked for Ballydoyle courtesy of their massive block entry of three year olds. But a three year old can't beat an older horse as good as I now believe Cima De Triomphe to be. So I'll be supporting Cumani's new star if, as I suspect, he returns to the course and distance for the big race in July.

CONDUIT (41) ran a tremendous race on his seasonal debut to finish a short head second. It's tempting to say that the ten furlongs was too short for him, seeing that he won the St Leger over a much longer distance. But he's got such a terrific turn of foot and is so versatile I'm wary of drawing that conclusion. He may well be able to win a Group 1 race over ten furlongs and should improve for this run. He remains one of the top middle distance horses on the planet and must have a serious shot of winning the Breeders' Cup Turf for a second time later this season.

STOSFOLD (40) finished almost as strongly as the winner to take third, earning a very good Group 2 speed rating from me once more.

This was not the first time Stotsfold has run a big race over ten furlongs at Sandown. Last year he got beat only three and a quarter lengths in the Eclipse Stakes. He also ran really well at Sandown last time when four lengths fourth to Paco Boy in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile. He was held up in last place that day in a race that developed into a sprint finish. There could hardly be a worse scenario for a ten furlong horse running over a mile.

Before this run Stotsfold would have won seven of the eight times he's run below Group 1 class on fast ground over ten furlongs if one somewhat unlucky and narrow loss had gone his way

Obviously he just has to go for the Eclipse again. In fact, if he were mine I'd be inclined to keep banging away with him in the furlong Group 1 races. He's son consistent that one day he might just get lucky and sneak a win at the top level.

DRUMFIRE (40) also finished strongly to take fourth and surprised me with how well he ran. But looking at his form I now see that he'd previously won all three times he'd run on right hand, galloping courses like Sandown. The next time he runs on such a course I'll be very interested in his chances. I'm now beginning to think that a step up to a mile and a half might be a good idea too, seeing that he's got a long stride and has been staying on so well.

PIPEDREAMER (40) looked a big threat to win when he surged down the outside to take the lead over a furlong out. But, as we've seen so often in the past, ten furlongs stretches his stamina and he tired quite dramatically in the last 100 yards though still running close.

At this stage it now looks rather obvious that Pipedreamer is not going to become the second Cambridgeshire winner to take a Group 1 in the last fifty years if he sticks at ten furlongs. But I'd really like to see how he'd do over a mile seeing how well he always goes for the first nine furlongs of his races. It's a shame he wasn't given a shot in the Prix d'Ispahan over nine and a quarter furlongs, that being the only European Group 1 over something like the Cambridgeshire distance. However, Group 1 races over a mile are often weak affairs, as evidenced by the recent Lockinge Stakes. So maybe it will prove a blessing in disguise that he missed the French race as a big run there might have encouraged his connections to persevere over ten furlongs. Now it's looking clear that they should allow Pipedreamer to take up his engagement in the Sussex Stakes over a mile. I rather fancy that he'll go well if he does.

I confess that I thought STAYING ON (39) only ran Doctor Fremantle to a short head at Chester because he was allowed to set such a slow pace. But his close sixth place finish here proved me wrong. He's clearly not quite up to beating Group 1 horses like these. But previously his form around a turn on good or faster ground at ten furlongs or less showed four wins and two second place finishes to smart rivals from six attempts. As long as he avoids straight courses and gets a fast surface I see him winning a Group race before long.

STEELE TANGO (39) finished well to clock yet another Group class time. He's not that big and it was noticeable his jockey steered him to the outside to make his run rather than get involved in traffic closer to the rail. It could well be he's best in smaller fields. A step back up to twelve furlongs would do no harm either. He'll surely be winning a Group race sooner rather than later.

Godolphin's CAMPANOLOGIST (38) has grown and strengthened up markedly since last season. He's now a good-sized, classy looking colt that looks built to be a twelve furlong specialist. He shows a flowing, daisy-cutting stride which indicates he must have fast ground.

Early on Campanologist was a little keen, as horses often are off a break as long as he had before this race. But pretty soon he had to be nudged along to keep tabs on the other front runner, Staying On. It looks like he's lost a little of his pace with age and gained stamina. Certainly in the closing stages, after leading two furlongs out, he was swamped for speed by a mass of strong finishers, ending up eighth after not being given a hard time once beaten.

On what I saw here Campanologist no longer has the pace to reproduce his big run in last year's Eclipse. He now needs to go back up to a mile and a half to have a shot of winning a Group 1.

PERKS (38) was boxed in all the way up the straight and simply never got a run but still closed smoothly and strongly very late when he finally got an opening. This run proved he can handle fast ground. As I write this he's about to run in what must surely be his big target of the season, the Group 3 Stora Pris in Sweden, home of his owner Benny Anderson of the supergroup ABBA. Whatever happens to him there I'm interested in Perks chances of taking a Group race soon on what I saw here.

J J THE JET PLANE HAS ANY AMOUNT OF ABILITY

J J THE JET PLANE (43) ran 1.65 seconds quicker than fair handicappers over the same six furlong distance when taking a good Listed sprint at Windsor.

After zipping out the stalls and grabbing the lead, J J The Jet Plane edged towards the rails and set what was clearly a very comfortable pace for him. Nonetheless he had his rivals at full stretch.

Around the two furlong pole J J The Jet Plane was asked to go clear but raced lazily at first. However he soon got the message and proceeded to storm away from his rivals in the last furlong to win comfortably.

To win in such fast time so comfortably when his trainer says he was unfit suggests J J The Jet Plane is going to be a tough nut to crack at Royal Ascot. So far he's raced eight times in sprints on turf and won all eight times. You'd have to be pretty brave to bet he won't make it nine out of nine in the Golden Jubilee. This horse has any amount of ability and is clearly one of the best sprinters of recent years.

DUNN'O IS GROUP CLASS - AT SANDOWN

DUNN'O (39) is rather an oddball. He sweated up and pulled hard going down to the start at Sandown last week then raced rankly in the lead at what looked too fast a pace. But he still held on to win even though he was racing on one of Britain's stiffest tracks.

This is normal behaviour for Dunn'o and explains why he was kept to five and six furlong sprints for his first eight starts. However it is over longer trips that he has really shone. He earned a Listed class speed rating from me at Sandown three runs back and improved to hit a Group 3 class time last week.

The big question is whether Dunn'o can repeat this form on a straight course in the Royal Hunt Cup. His record says no, because while he's unbeaten in three starts around the turn at Sandown he has lost all nine times he's run on dead straight courses.

Dunno's record makes perfect sense. The early pace is invariably stronger on straight courses than it is around a turn, especially in handicaps. In addition, a horse that's as gung ho for the lead as him will be inclined to go off even harder when there's no torn to force some sort of restraint.

Dunn'o has only gone around a turn at two courses other than Sandown. One time was at Pontefract, which features by far the most steeply uphill finish in Britain. He didn't last home there. The other time was at Chester which is probably too tight for him seeing that he's a fair size and has a big stride. He went well there and I'd like to see him tried on another more galloping course before concluding that he's just a one trick pony that's only ever going to produce this level of form at Sandown.

Runner up AXIOM (39) would be a much better proposition for the Royal Hunt Cup if only the race were run on yielding or softer ground. He finished strongly and was catching the winner but just went under by half a length. He's won three of the last four times he's raced on yielding or softer ground, with his sole loss coming over an inadequate seven furlongs.

Unfortunately yielding ground is unusual for the Royal Hunt Cup. And trainer Luca Cumani says Axiom will miss the race unless he gets some cut in the ground.

Clearly Axiom is the proverbial Group racer running in a handicap right now. Cumani must surely be keen to exploit this fact by finding him some valuable handicap to win. The obvious target is the Cambridgeshire. But there are other options before than, and if Axiom gets his ground I'd be wary of opposing him.

KINGDOM OF FIFE HAS REAL SHOT IN WOLFERTON

KINGDOM OF FIFE (38) clocked a Group 3 class time when making all the running to win the Zetland Gold Cup. He is a great big strapping sort with a big stride that finished strongly but too late when going under in a photo to a cleverly ridden winner that stole first run on him at Chester's May meeting. If two photos had gone his way he'd have won the last five times he's run ten furlongs. He looks to have a serious shot of taking the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot on this showing.