UK JUNE 2010

WORKFORCE NOT NECESSARILY THAT GOOD

The Derby is always a pig of a race to predict. This is partly because it always seems to feature a relatively slow early pace but mostly because a majority of the runners fail to handle the steep downhill home turn and counter camber. Add in the traffic problems which tend to be produced by inexperienced runners getting unbalanced on the quirky course and you have a recipe for disaster as far as serious betting is concerned.

This year, as in the previous five, nobody seemed to want to go on in the early stages. This frustrated the efforts of Jamie Heffernan on AT FIRST SIGHT (37) to set a strong pace for his stablemates. But it also meant he was able to accelerate suddenly four and a half furlongs out and steal an eight length break by the time the field crossed the path three and a quarter furlongs from the finish..

For a while it looked like Heffernan had managed to slip the field. At First Sight went as low as 3.05 in running on Betfair. Then Workforce came out of the pack to power past him.

This was a very enterprising ride by Heffernan on what was only a pacemaker. When he saw he wasn’t going to be able to do his job he set out to try and win the race for his stable anyhow. And the fact he managed to run second in a Classic on what is surely only a Group 3 horse says a lot for his race riding skills and tactical judgment.

The winner WORKFORCE (41) actually broke the course record, and he certainly looked good by picking up a lot of ground and charging seven lengths clear. But I’ve spent ages comparing the sectional and final times of the Derby with the other races on the card and can’t find a way to rate it anything better than a solid Group 1 performance. My suspicion is that the huge rail movements they often make at Epsom had more to do with breaking the record than his level of ability.

Workforce could prove to be as good as a lot of people now seem to be rating him. But right now I can only rank him as one of the top half dozen or so three year olds.

One thing that makes me a little dubious of the hype now gathering behind Workforce is his rather uncoordinated action. He raises his knees a little too high to be a firm ground specialist and doesn’t have the smooth, flowing stride you’d expect of a top flight performer. I honestly thought he would never handle the gradients or the fast ground at Epsom. The fact that he managed to do so doesn’t dispel the obvious concerns about his stride pattern. He hits the ground a little too hard for my liking and I just wonder if he’ll stay sound. In addition let’s not forget his key rivals all had problems and he was left to beat a mere pacemaker into second.

REWILDING (36) was in serious trouble when At First Sight suddenly quickened the pace four and a half furlongs out. He was instantly under a full out drive from Dettori. But eventually he got going and finally took off like rocket inside the final furlong, sprinting away quickly from the next three home and very nearly catching At First Sight for second while gaining four lengths in the final 125 yards.

One thing that impressed me about Rewilding here was how he remained balanced and kept responding despite having to be yanked from the centre of the course all the way to the rail to find a run. He’s clearly a very tractable and professional racehorse that runs like an old hand. I rated his win in the Cocked Hat Stakes only a length per mile off what the winner ran here. If the early pace had been stronger and he had gained a clear run without having to swerve I think he’d have gone close. In fact if the race had been run anywhere but Epsom I think he’d have gone close.

In the circumstances I’m not sure it’s right for Rewilding’s connections to see him as nothing more than a St Leger horse. Yes he’ll probably stay the trip at Doncaster and should have a great chance of winning. But I would be wary of dismissing his chances of taking a Group 1 at a mile and a half.

JAN VERMEER (33) started favourite and was the first of the Ballydoyle big two to finish, beating stablemate Midas Touch by a head. But before discussing his troubles I think it’s worth pausing to reflect on the tactics used by his stable in this race.

Last year Aidan O’Brien pitched in two very smart pacemakers into the Derby, both of which later placed in Group 1’s. But nobody wanted to chase them. This year he used one of the best and most reliable pacemakers he’s ever had in At First Sight, a horse that the other jockeys must have known might be able to steal the race if they allowed him too much rope. But again there were no takers when it came to chasing the pacemaker.

This was the sixth Derby in a row that has featured a slow to moderate early pace. It seems to me that nowadays there are so many doubtful stayers in the race that nobody is ever going to want to chase even a scarily good pacemaker. For an operation that succeeds in breeding several top class out and out mile and a half colts every year this has to be a concern for Coolmore.

Coolmore’s Derby colts tend to be big strong sorts that lengthen rather than quicken. They have no problem winning other top mile and a half races because their pacemakers ensure a searching early gallop. But their pacemakers are getting ignored in the Derby and they’re left floundering when the pace quickens up. The obvious solution is to go to the front with their entire team. I’ll be interested to see if they try that next year.

This year Jan Vermeer pulled against the moderate early gallop but was still going well even when At First Sight accelerated. Jockey Johnny Murtagh switched him inside up the straight, quickly found a gap and the horse moved into third but could then make no further progress and lost that position when Rewilding found his stride and spurted away from him in the last furlong.

It turned out that Jan Vermeer didn’t come down the hill very well and man aged to lose two shoes in running. So clearly had had excuses. In addition he came to the race on the back of a somewhat rushed preparation. It’s very possible he’ll prove just as good as the winner.

MIDAS TOUCH (33) moved well for a long way and actually looked the most likely winner to me half a mile out. But he failed to pick up as well as looked likely. He just stayed on and is clearly better off the kind of searching early gallop he had when winning the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. That run earned him a speed rating from me just a length per mile off what the winner earned here. He’s almost certainly a Group 1 horse and will surely prove that sooner rather than later.

AL ZIR (33) clearly didn’t get the mile and a half. He tired quite badly and was beginning to go legless in the closing stages and will do better over a mile and a quarter.

CAVALRYMAN THE ONE TO BEAT IN KING GEORGE

FAME AND GLORY (41) gave a good demonstration of the tactics that Aidan O’Brien might well want to employ in next year’s Derby when winning the Coronation Cup. He sat in a close second behind his pacemaker Dixie Music, with everything bar Jukebox Jury a further eight lengths behind from halfway.

The tactics worked well because although the runner up Sariska came out of the pack to threaten once Dixie Music fell away he just kept grinding away to prevail by a length and a half.

Fame And Glory has been well placed to win four Group 1 races. He may not be in the same league as some of Coolmore’s former stars but he’s a reliable performer at the top level whenever he gets a decent test of stamina.

I don’t think it would be a smart idea cutting back Fame And Glory to ten furlongs for the Prince Of Wales. The trip is surely a bit short for him and he’s already had four runs this season. Plus there are invariably one or two seriously good ten furlong specialists in the race who would surely do Fame And Glory for speed.

SARISKA (40) ran her best race yet to chase Fame And Glory home. But I suspect she’d only have been third if Cavalryman had obtained a clear run. I still believe she’s just not quite good enough to beat males in a Group 1 race.

HIGH HEELED (39) showed that she does not need soft ground to produce her best. Either that or she’s improved since last year. In any event she clearly has a major chance of winning a Group 1 for fillies and mares this season as the three year old fillies seem such a weak bunch. Her big objectives are obviously going to be the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille. If she got soft ground in either of those races she’d be a serious betting proposition. Even without it she’d clearly have a major chance on this showing.

YOUMZAIN (39) got the decent pace he needs and seemed to have no real excuse. But he lost for the tenth time in a row and has now won just one of his last nineteen starts. Perhaps he needed the run and maybe he’ll bounce back. However he’s now seven so I’m betting that won’t happen.

CAVALRYMAN (38) had one of those appallingly bad runs that are sadly so common at Epsom. He moved well and actually looked to be going best to me early in the straight. However when Dettori moved him off the fence and tried to switch him to the outside to find a run he was bumped back in by High Heeled. With nowhere else to go Dettori tried again and this time got bumped back in even more heavily. Time was running out so Dettori switched Cavalryman back to the rail to take a gap. Unfortunately just as he took it Youmzain started hanging in towards the rail and began buffeting Cavalryman between himself and the fence, causing Dettori to take him up. Very soon after the line was reached.

It’s impossible to tell just how much ground and momentum Cavalyrman lost due to the interference. However he’s run a smidge faster than the winner on my ratings and looked to be in with a real chance before his troubles started. At this stage he looks the most likely King George winner to me.

HOLBERG COULD WELL BE GROUP 1 CLASS

HOLBERG (40) clocked a seriously fast time to win a hot Listed race over twelve furlongs at Goodwood. He was injured after winning the Queen’s Vase last year and was expected to improve for this comeback run. But he put up a career best performance despite the twelve month absence and the half mile cut back in distance.

True Holberg was gifted a fairly soft lead. But he didn’t go that slow in the lead and found a lot when challenged to power clear by six lengths.

Holberg’s jockey reckoned he might have won at Hamilton three runs back if he’d kept him closer to the slow early gallop. If he had then Holberg would have been winning for the sixth time in a row here.

I suspect new trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is right to say that a mile and a half is the right distance for Holberg. He certainly has the build for the distance and ran really fast. It would only take a little more improvement for him to be competitive in Group 1 races over twelve furlongs.

Runner up MANGIHAR (36) was one of the top three year old stayers in Europe last year. He was sold and moved to Luca Cumani who must surely be grooming him for a shot at the Melbourne Cup. He certainly looks a decent candidate for that race as he has a good turn of foot for a stayer. He used it to improve from fourth to second in the closing stages here despite looking to run a little green – or perhaps he wasn’t liking the fast ground.

With this run under his belt Manighar is going to be very interesting over a longer distance next time.

AZMEEL HAS A SHOT IN THE DERBY

Seeing that he's a proper mile and a half horse and the runner up more a miler, AZMEEL (39) did really well to win a flat out sprint finish off a slow early pace for the Dee Stakes. When I adjust my speed rating to take account of the pace it indicates a solid Group 2 class performance from the winner.

I really like the way Azmeel picked up in the closing stages here. He'll surely do better off the likely stronger gallop at Epsom. He may not be quite good enough to win the big race but has to be worth a shot.

HOT PROSPECT SHOULD IMPROVE ON FASTER GROUND

I noted that BULLET TRAIN (38) looked a potential Derby Trial winner after he'd run a big race in a hot Newbury Conditions event on his seasonal debut. Sure enough he took the Lingfield Derby Trial in taking style.

Bullet Train ran a little green at Newbury but showed no sign of that at Lingfield. He was allowed to set a soft pace and quickened impressively from the front to win full of running. However even when I adjust my speed rating for the sprint finish it suggests only a borderline Group 2 performance from the Henry Cecil colt.

The pace he showed in this race tells me that Bullet Train would have no problem cutting back to ten furlongs. He was so full of run at the finish I can't say for sure he won't improve enough to be competitive in Group 1 company. Right now though I think Cecil is right to be cautious about running him in the Derby. He's a lightly raced horse that probably doesn't need to be subjected to such a tough test so early.

If there was a Group 1 horse in the race I'd be pretty sure it's third placed HOT PROSPECT (36). He's clearly a firm ground performer and just didn't look to be getting through the ground properly when asked to pick up.

Race times indicate the going was slightly on the slow side of good, and it was clear Hot Prospect wasn't comfortable on it. He just wasn't stretching out fully as I've seen him do on quicker ground. Nonetheless he did manage to gain ground and looked sure to fill second spot till caught for that position late on in the race.

Hot Prospect is a muscular, good-bodied, classy looking middle distance sort. He's a half brother to the Sprint Cup winner Regal Parade, but he's by the Derby winner Motivator and looks much more a middle distance sort to me.

On his debut Hot Prospect ran green and finished second to Vale Of York who went on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Next time out he put up an amazing performance to score at Sandown.

Hot Prospect's total dominance of his rivals at Sandown was evident right from the start. The early pace was strong and all his opponents were being ridden along to keep up within a few strides of exiting the gate. Their riders were all trying to get position before they reached the first turn. But Hot Prospect simply cruised by them all with his jockey motionless and had the speed to come across all the way from the outermost draw in a nine runner race and take the lead long before the first turn was reached.

Hot Prospect continued cruising along at a scorching pace and soon had all his rivals at it. Runner up Morana tried to mount a challenge up the straight but Hot Prospect simply lengthened and kept going really strongly to win by two lengths with ease. He clocked a Group 1 time on my speed ratings.

Next time out Hot Prospect ran well below that form in the Listed Silver Tankard at Pontefract. But as trainer Michael Jarvis explains “After two good runs he disappointed at Pontefract. For some reason, he boiled over in the preliminaries and never ran a race."

The jockey told the stewards after the race that Hot Prospect 'ran too free.' It's also worth noting that the ground was good as judged by race times not the good to firm he'd had at Sandown.

On his seasonal debut Hot Prospect ran in the obscenely valuable Tattersalls Timeform Trophy over ten furlongs at Newmarket, along with a whole bunch of other Derby entries from big stables.

Before that race Jarvis said “I would think that the trip will be fine. He is a half-brother to Regal Parade, who won the Haydock Sprint Cup last year, but being by Motivator, I would think that 10 furlongs is his optimum trip. Without being categoric, I think he would handle the ground if it was on the quick side of good.”

The ground turned out to be only just on the quick side of good but Hot Prospect still ran a big race to finish third. In fact he put up another amazing performance.

Don Carlos unfortunately went off too quick in the Newmarket race, setting an unsustainably fast pace. Nonetheless Hot Prospect was still rather keen in the early stages. When he saw daylight at halfway he surged forwards to dispute the lead with Don Carlos - a suicidal move as it came just as the Coolmore colt was really piling on the pressure and trying to break clear of his field.

Not surprisingly Hot Prospect then tired and lost ground, slipping briefly to seventh place. But as everything else started slowly grinding to a halt as the pace told he clawed his way back to third on pure class.

For a horse to make a second big move like that a race after gaining ground into a pace so strong it caused everything to tire and hurt the final time is remarkable. It tells me that we're almost certainly dealing with a Group 1 horse in Hot Prospect, just as that Sandown race suggests.

When he once more gets really fast ground as he did at Sandown I'd bet on Hot Prospect proving himself to be one of the better middle distance three year olds.

TIMEPIECE DIDN'T STAY

TIMEPIECE (36) is a rangy, good-bodied, classy looking filly with a big stride that looks built to produce a decent turn of foot. Her physique does however look more that of a ten furlong horse than a mile and a half runner. And her run in the Lingfield Oaks Trial seemed to confirm this.

Timepiece cruised along in third place early on. And, although she never really regained an even keel after getting unbalanced exiting the sharp home turn, she moved through readily to lead after the two furlong from hole marker. But her stride shortened and she tired rather badly to get caught late by Dyna Waltz.

An idea of how badly Timepiece tired can be gleaned from the fact the last three furlongs in her race was run in 38.3 seconds compared with 35.8 for the Lingfield Derby Trial over the same course and distance.'

My feeling from watching the race is that Timepiece would have won by around three lengths if it had been over ten furlongs. That means she'd have earned a proper Group 1 rating from me for a three year old filly.

The big ten furlong races like the Pretty Polly and Nassau Stakes look obvious targets for Timepiece. I also note with great interest that she's still in the ten and a half furlong Prix de Diane (French Oaks) on June 13th. Surely she should go for the Chantilly race rather than having another chance to show she doesn't stay at Epsom.

DYNA WALTZ (37) clearly benefited from the runner up not getting the trip. But in what so far looks a bad year for three year old fillies she's got to have some sort of shot in the Oaks off this run.

MYPLACELATER WORTH SUPPLEMENTING FOR THE OAKS

MYPLACELATER (32) beat the subsequent Lingfield Derby Trial winner Bullet Train in a hot conditions race at Newbury. And she really should have won a Classic Trial of her own when she contested the Cheshire Oaks.

Unfortunately her chances were compromised by an absolute crawl of an early gallop that was followed by a flat out sprint to the line.

Myplacelater began the sprint four or five lengths behind and did very well to pick up about three lengths in the last furlong, showing a tremendous turn of foot, despite having to switch for a run. I've no doubt whatsoever that in a truly run race she would have been a rather impressive winner.

I know it costs a lot to supplement a horse for the Oaks. But this is a weak year for three year old fillies and Myplacelater could well be good enough to score at Epsom.

ALAINMAAR DOES IT AGAIN

ALAINMAAR (39) ran another fast time to take a good Conditions race at Lingfield. He took a while to get by the front running Peligroso (37) and looks likely to improve when he steps up to a mile and a half for the Hardwicke Stakes.

The concern for me is that Alainmar hit the same borderline Group 2 speed rating for the second time in a row, suggesting that this is the limit to his ability. If it is then he's going to struggle in the Hardwicke Stakes.

DEBUSSY IS SERIOUSLY GOOD AT TEN FURLONGS

DEBUSSY (40) clocked a fast time to win the Huxley Stakes over ten furlongs at Chester, pulling clear of the rest with the Group 1 placed filly Les Fazzani to win with a bit in hand.

Debussy looked like developing into a Group 1 performer after winning the first three times he ran ten furlongs, the distance of Huxley Stakes. In one of those races he beat the subsequent Breeders' Cup winner Midday and in another he won a good Group 2 in France. Both times he earned really good Group 2 class speed ratings from me as he did here.

Then came that sub par display at Deauville where he led till 100 yards out, seeming to get swamped for finishing speed by his rivals when running fifth by a length and a quarter. His jockey said he wasn't liking the right hand bends that day. This seems credible as he he'd run a clunker the only previous time he'd gone right-handed and had a problem changing leads when winning at Epsom.

Debussy only finished ninth and tenth at Meydan in his two comeback races. Most likely he found a mile too short the first time and didn't like Tapeta the second. Now that he's back to his best it's understandable his connections want to shoot for a Group 1. But I'm not sure the Prince Of Wales Stakes is the right target. That's on a right handed course.

The logical long term target for Debussy just has to be the Champion Stakes. He showed at Maisons-Laffitte that he's very effective on a straight ten furlong course. These days the Champion Stakes is often a weak Group 1, so Debussy would have a major chance of winning it if he's not campaigned too hard between now and then.

The rain came just in time for LES FAZZANI (38) who is a smart filly on surfaces with a bit of cushion in them - i.e. Polytrack of yielding or softer turf. She's within a couple of lengths of the very best fillies when she gets her ground.