OH WOW! KICKING KING IS THE REAL DEAL

After his remarkable performance in the King George, I wrote this about KICKING KING (45);

"When a horse keeps on running faster and faster, and doing things that look

almost impossible you've got to stop and consider the possibility that it is one

of those rare creatures that comes along just once or twice in a decade - the true champion."

Now that he has gone and won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in freakishly fast time I have to say that the possibility is developing into a probability.

I awarded Kicking King a bigger speed rating for winning the Gold Cup than I've given a chaser at three miles plus in many years. He is one of the best chasers we have seen in decades. That's what my ratings say. And, despite his pedigree, he actually seems to improve with distance.

You won't find me opposing Kicking King in future - unless he's dropped back to two and a half miles where I suspect he'd still be vulnerable.

I confess I was rooting for the runner-up TAKE THE STAND (43) to win at big odds. But he couldn't get to Kicking King, even though he equaled his best ever speed rating.

Sadly, everybody now knows about Take The Stand. They also know he's best fresh and must have fast ground. So I suspect we're going to have to wait for him to run in unfavorable circumstances a few times before he's going to offer real betting value again.

SIR REMBRANDT (41) placed in the race once more, again demonstrating that he is a high class horse at three and a quarter miles or more. No doubt he'll extend his losing streak to ten over an inadequate trip on his seasonal debut next term. But I'd be wary of opposing him when next he races over a marathon trip. His record at long distances is impeccable.

ROYAL AUCLAIR (41) continued his revival with a decent fourth place finish. The breathing operation he had before this season has obviously brought him back to his very best. But, like most horses with breathing troubles, he does seem best on fast ground. If he gets that sort of going next time I can see him winning a really big race as there are very few three mile chasers around who can run this fast.

SUN ALLIANCE HURDLE A GOLDMINE OF FUTURE WINNERS

This season, according to my speed ratings, we have seen vastly more fast times at longer distances in novice hurdles than over two miles. So it was hardly a surprise that the Supreme Novices' turned out to be a sub-par affair while the Sun Alliance looks like a vintage renewal.

NO REFUGE (41) won the Sun Alliance and is clearly a very smart horse indeed. I've mentioned before that he's earned bigger flat speed ratings than any recruit from the level I can recall in recent years. And he actually seems to be improving over hurdles. He was apparently a slow learner and this explains why he jumped so novicey in his first couple of outings this term. But now he seems the finished article and should really still be unbeaten in his four outings over timber (he lost once through very sloppy jumping).

No Refuge showed that he has a great turn of foot to win this race, and that is a potent weapon for a long distance hurdler to possess. I'd be wary of betting any horse to beat him in a long distance hurdle right now.

The runner-up RACING DEMON (41) is a proper chasing sort and is already looking like a natural replacement for his stablemate Best Mate. Whether he'll ever reach the heights that one scaled is hard to say. Right now though I can't think of a more likely winner of next year's Feltham and Sun Alliance Chases - except maybe OUR BEN (40) the Sun Alliance third.

Our Ben ran amazingly well in such a hot hurdle race for a horse built and bred to go chasing. He's certainly something to look forward to next season.

POLE STAR (40) seems incapable of running a bad race over hurdles. His fourth placed finish earned him as big a speed rating as he's ever earned on the flat and has me wondering about his prospects in the big Cup races on the level. Trainer James Fanshawe says that jumping has revived Pole Star's enthusiasm. This being so I can see him taking a big stayer's race in the coming months. The Sagaro stakes at Ascot looks like a logical starting point.

GOLD MEDALLIST (40), another high class stayer on the flat, almost equaled his best speed rating to run a close fifth. He's already proven he stays three miles and run faster than most of the top long distance hurdlers, so I see him as a good prospect for next year's Stayer's Hurdle.

Pole Star's stablemate REVEILLEZ (39) ran really well to finish close up while pulling clear of the rest of the field. Fanshawe sees him as a chasing prospect, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Reveillez one of the more fancied runners for the Arkle next term.

MOSCOW FLYER MAKES IT 18 OUT OF 18

What more can one say about MOSCOW FLYER (40)? He took his record to eighteen wins out of eighteen completed chase starts in the Two Mile Champion Chase beating an exceptional field.

He didn't have to run his fastest to win, and quite possibly he never will. He's always tended to idle in front and there's never been a horse around that was able to really get him off the bridle.

Well Chief (40) ran a little below his best to finish second. I still say he's best fresh, so I'd be siding against him if he comes out at Aintree and won't be expecting him to win again till he's rested.

MISSED THAT ANOTHER FLORIDA PEARL?

MISSED THAT (40) displayed real class to stand off a succession of challenges when winning the Champion Bumper at the Festival. He's already a point to point winner and will apparently go straight over fences next term, just as stablemate Florida Pearl did so successfully after taking this race. The clock suggests he has every chance of emulating Florida Pearl. And so does the history of this race which is invariably the most strongly contested race of the entire national hunt season. It has thrown up scores of future stars in the past and I'd bet on it doing so again.

Runner-up DE SOTO (40) is still only four. He's flat-bred and would be a very interesting contender for a marathon race like the Queen Alexandra Stakes. Certainly he's a great novice hurdling prospect for next season.

Third placed RASHARROW (40) also looks a great prospect for novice hurdles and ought to be a contender for the Supreme Novices' next term if he makes a successful transition to timber.

IDOLE FIRST A SERIOUSLY GOOD STAYING HURDLER

IDOLE FIRST (40) clearly improved significantly for the step up to 2m 5f in the Coral Cup. According to my speed ratings this performance wasn't far off Grade 1 class. But I very much doubt the official handicapper is going to take that view, so I'd watch out for Idole First to win another valuable staying hurdle soon. And if he's stepped up in class to tackle the top staying hurdlers I'd give him serious consideration.

TRABOLGAN WINS A BAD SUN ALLIANCE CHASE

The Sun Alliance Chase is one of those contests that can sometimes throw up very good or very bad winners. This year, the clock indicates the winner Trabolgan (35) falls into the latter category. Perhaps he'll improve, but until he does I'm going to be opposing him on the basis of his slow final time in what was a truly run race.

KING HARALD IS BETTER THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK

The Jewson Novice's Handicap Chase filled an important gap in the Cheltenham Festival fixture. It attracted a very strong field of horses who were not suited to the three miles of the Sun Alliance or the two miles of the Arkle. The race, at the in between trip of 2m 5f, was only awarded Listed class for its first running. But it deserves a Grade 2 tag if this year's race is anything to go by.

KING HARALD (40) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a novice chaser all season. If he'd learned to jump better sooner and hadn't bumped into top novice Ollie Magern on one occasion he might well still be unbeaten over fences.

King Harald's official handicap rating looks set to be well below what it should be. So I suspect his connections will be going the handicap route with him again next time. If they do he'll be tough to beat. And even if they throw him in against the best novices he might still be good enough to score again.

Runner-up Lacdoudal (38) is going to be harder to place since his official rating is already very high and he's not as fast as the winner. What is interesting about his run though is that it franked the form of LIMERICK BOY who had hammered him by a dozen lengths last time out when I gave Lacdoudal exactly the same speed rating as I did here. I predicted here earlier that Limierick Boy would run a clunker at Cheltenham because he needs a flat track. I still say he's a great bet to bounce back at Aintree, seeing how well Lacdoudal ran here.

BET RATHGAR BEAU TO BOUNCE BACK

RATHGAR BEAU (40) didn't enjoy much luck on his previous visits to Britain. And it was the same story in the Daily Telegraph Festival Trophy Chase. He made a bad mistake at the last when challenging which cost him valuable momentum. He ended up losing quite narrowly to two horses that he has frequently run faster than according to my speed ratings.

Rathgar Beau remains one of the best two and a half mile chasers and could easily gain compensation at Aintree or Punchestown.

INGLIS DREVER NOT THAT SMART

Inglis Drever (41) has only ever run borderline Grade 1 times according to my speed ratings. And he didn't show any improvement when taking the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. It seems to me that runner-up Baracouda either had an off day or (much more likely) has deteriorated. So I will be looking to oppose Inglis Drever next time.

INDIAN STEPPES IS BIG THREAT IN SMALL FIELD

INDIAN STEPPES (40) ran extraordinarily fast for a moderate handicap when winning on the Polytrack at Lingfield. She seems to get forced wide every time she runs in a big field. But in AW races with nine runners or less she would have won four times out of five at six furlongs plus but for a couple of photo finish losses. Her other defeat was a close fifth in pattern company.

Looking at her form, I rather suspect that Indian Steppes can run just as well on grass - provided she gets fast ground and a small field. So I'd watch out for her to win again soon.

ECCENTRIC DOES IT AGAIN

I predicted here that ECCENTRIC (40) would win the Winter Derby. He duly did. But, as I suspected might be the case, he still didn't better the best speed rating I've given him so far.

As I've said, when a horse is this good on the AW we usually don't discover just how fast they can run until they take on the top dirt performers in the USA. Eccentric is due to do that later this year. I can hardly wait.

HARDY EUSTACE STILL THE CHAMP

I've been banging on about HARDY EUSTACE (42) being the fastest hurdler since Istabraq all season. But he only just managed to repeat his win in the Champion Hurdle. The problem was he had to make his own running yet again. As a result he was a sitting duck in a field full of hold-up horses with flat race speed. Nonetheless he still managed to hold off the best of them, HARCHIBALD (42).

As I've mentioned, I think the key to Hardy Eustace is the number of runners. Only a big field can guarantee anything like the sort of pace he needs to run to his best. I think this is why he has passed the post first all six times he's run in fields of ten or more over hurdles but won just two of his last eleven starts in smaller fields.

It's not Hardy Eustace's fault that so many Champion Hurdle Trials feature tiny fields and a tactically run race. I just hope there are enough runners for him to effectively defend his other Champion Hurdle Crown at the Punchestown Festival.

Harchibald is clearly a smart horse, though I think one should bear in mind the race was run to suit him. He equaled the big speed rating I'd awarded him earlier this season here and has obviously improved a fair bit this term. If the Emo Oil Champion Hurdle at Punchestown cuts up to a small field he'll take a power of beating. Indeed I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him beat Hardy Eustace several times between now and the next Cheltenham Festival. But you won't see me tipping him to stop Hardy Eustace making it three in a row next season. Given the big field it invariably attracts, the Champion Hurdle is always going to be Hardy Eustace's sort of race.

BRAVE INCA (42) only lost by a couple of necks and is like Hardy Eustace in that he has a brilliant record in big fields. Prior to this defeat he had won the last seven times he'd run in fields of seven or more and lost the last four times he'd run in fields of six or less. He's an admirably consistent horse but suffers from the same problem as Hardy Eustace - namely that most big conditions hurdles feature small fields and that right now there are very few natural front runners around among the top timber toppers to ensure a decent pace. Historically, this is a most unusual situation, and I suspect it will have changed by this time next season with the new influx of former novices into the picture. I would therefore say that Brave Inca shapes up as the horse most likely to prevent Hardy Eustace from winning four times in a row at the Cheltenham Festival next year.

ARCALIS NOT THAT GOOD

I've never been much of a fan of Arcalis (39), and he didn't win me over with his six length victory in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. According to my speed ratings he was an unusually slow winner of the race and will need to improve considerably to win at the top level against the vintage crop of hurdlers we now have.

Arcalis may have disliked the yielding ground on his last two starts when he lsot badly both times. He's now won the last five times he's run on good or faster ground but I'll be siding against him even if he gets his ground the next time he runs in a big race.

CONTRABAND A SUB-PAR ARKLE WINNER

After he'd run well in fast time on his chasing debut I predicted in this column that Contraband (38) might well win the Arkle. Now that he's gone and done so you might think it's churlish of me to give him a poor write up. But the fact is he ran pretty darned slow for an Arkle winner. So, seeing that there are a whole stack of very fast two mile chasers around right now - including several novices - I just have to say Contraband is a horse to oppose in his forthcoming starts.

On the other hand, the unlucky Arkle runner-up ASHLEY BROOK (38) does look rather an interesting prospect. He has improved slowly all season according to my speed ratings and was racing over what is almost certainly too short a trip. He does seem to be a natural two and a half mile sort, and over that distance I'd be wary of opposing him in novice company next time.

KEEN LEADER CAN WIN IN GRADE 1 COMPANY ON SOFT GROUND

French chaser KELAMI (39) is a hard horse to win with. This isn't because he's a tricky ride though. Like his brother L'Ami, he needs three miles plus, and the few races at that long a trip in France invariably attract the very best horses. This explains why he has been plying his trade in Britain this term.

Kelami won the William Hill Trophy in good time. It might well have been his third win in six UK outings if only he hadn't tipped up when going well in another valuable Cheltenham chase a few runs back. He's still very low down in the handicap for a horse with his level of ability, so I can see him scoring again - as long as he doesn't go back to France.

Runner-up KEEN LEADER (39) looks even more interesting. He ran seriously fast despite the ground being much faster than he likes.

On his seasonal debut this term I awarded Keen Leader a Grade 1 speed rating when he ran a good third in what I rated the fastest chase run this season at three miles plus. He gave chunks of weight away to the horses that beat him that day, just as he did to Kelami here.

Prior to his seasonal debut where he ran so well Keen Leader had won all six times he'd run on soft or heavy ground - earning speed ratings as high as 43 from me. That's Gold Cup class.

If Keen Leader gets soft or heavy ground on his next start I would not oppose him. He's still fresh, thanks to the virus his stable has been suffering from, and may well be the best three mile chaser in training on a soft surface. I hope he's given a shot at a Grade 1 next time rather than being steered towards the Scottish, Irish or Aintree National as his connections initially suggested. He's only eight and there's plenty of time for that later in his career.

SWORD LADY CAN WIN AGAIN

SWORD LADY (37) is beginning to look rather useful. She beat the promising Go For Bust at Bangor in a race where that one pulled 27 lengths clear of the third. The time for the race marks out Sword Lady as a Listed class staying hurdler.

Getting a handle on Sword Lady is difficult at this stage because she's still lightly raced. There are two possible interpretations of her form which seem viable right now; (a) she doesn't like big, galloping tracks like Chepstow, Newbury, Exeter and Haydock or (b) she is not at her best in December and January. The second theory works the best as she would have won five times out of six over jumps outside of December and January but for tipping up in the lead once at Towcester. Whichever theory proves right in the long run I'd say Sword Lady is a horse following. She looks set to remain incredibly well handicapped. So I'm hoping she goes for a staying handicap hurdle at the Aintree Festival.

PENWELL HILL TOUGH TO BEAT ON FIBRESAND

PENWELL HILL (37) is a one-trick pony. He's only effective on Fibresand and only at a mile. But his one trick is a good one because he earned a pattern class speed rating in his favored circumstances at Southwell to take his record up to six wins from eleven tries over a mile on Fibresand. One of his losses was off an eight month break. Another was a second place finish to the top AW horse Vortex and another was a second place finish when he hung badly. In other words with a bit of racing luck he would have won nine times out of ten when he's had a vaguely recent run over his favorite distance and surface.

With Wolverhampton having switched to the abysmal Polytrack, Southwell is the only Fibresand course remaining in Britain. But they have enough meetings to be sure that Penwell Hill can be found another race over a mile at the track in the next few weeks. So I'd keep a watch out for him. He should win again.

DEMPSEY HAS A REAL CHANCE AT PUNCHESTOWN

DEMPSEY (37) earned yet another good speed rating for winning at Sandown, taking his record on right-handed tracks to six out of eight in his completed starts since his racecourse debut. One of his two losses was a good second to Limerick Boy who I rate this season's fastest novice chaser. Dempsey now goes to Punchestown, which is logical, seeing that his trainer says he must go right-handed and prefers faster ground.

ASK THE NATIVES LOOKING INTERESTING FOR AINTREE FOXUNTERS

ASK THE NATIVES (38) stretched his unbeaten run in points and hunter chases to three with a wide margin win at Warwick. He looked a most promising sort under rules a few years back and my speed ratings say he is now right back to his best. He looks tough to beat in hunter chases and is exciting my interest for the Foxhunters at Aintree.

ZETA'S RIVER THE ONE TO BEAT IN KIM MUIR

ZETA'S RIVER (39) was much the fastest winner of the day at Newbury last Saturday. He earned a pattern class rating from me when narrowly beating HARRYCONE LEWIS (39).

Given his stout pedigree, it looks likely that it was the step up the three miles which improved Zeta's River. This being so, he looks a pretty solid contender for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. I'm not surprised the bookies now make him favorite. He ran as fast as the average Kim Muir winner here.

Harrycone Lewis (39) isn't entered at Cheltenham but is clearly up to that sort of class. He's a hard-pulling sort and a difficult ride according to his trainer, so I'd bet on some strong patterns in his form emerging over time. Right now though he is improving so fast it's hard to interpret his likes and dislikes. All I can say is that he is capable of winning much better races than this.

OMNI COSMO TOUCH MAKES OVER THE CREEK LOOK GOOD

I mentioned OMNI COSMO TOUCH (36) here recently after he'd run second in pattern class time to the very promising Over The Creek at Newbury. He made that one look good when winning a good class B handicap hurdle at Doncaster, even though he didn't have to run quite as fast this time.

Over The Creek rates as one of the fastest novice hurdlers according to my speed ratings and is in several races at the Cheltenham Festival. I'd respect his chances whatever contest he ends up in. I would give Omni Cosmo Touch a long hard look in his Cheltenham target, the Coral Cup, as well.

BEAU SUPREME HAS A REAL CHANCE IN NH CHASE

BEAU SUPREME (36) ran a decent time to take the Forbra Gold Cup at Ludlow.

The Forbra Gold Cup, is a hangover from the good old days before the race planners imposed race conditions on tracks and forced them to use their own universal handicap. Back then it was open to all comers and decent horses won it. It's still not a bad race since it's worth a good deal more than the average class D contest and offers a coveted trophy.

The race tends to go to a lightly-raced, unexposed sort, and did so once more with Beau Supreme.

Beau Supreme didn't do much good in point to points or or over hurdles. But after his first two chase starts under rules he began to show form. First he won a race at Ludlow - coming from a long way behind to just get up over an inadequate two and a half miles. Then he finished a good second, despite hitting the last, to the smart Tanterari. Tanterari had won his four previous completed starts and had just earned a solid pattern class speed rating from me.

Now Beau Supreme has gone and won again, earning a speed rating from me that suggests he's still improving and has a real chance in the upcoming National Hunt Chase at Chetlenham.

Runner-up KING ON THE RUN (36) also ran fast.

When a horse as old as King On The Run returns after a break of two years it's hard to get them fit. So I'd be pretty sure King On The Run was in no state to do himself justice on his first two starts this term. Here though he showed that he's as good as ever when just going under to a horse who I rate as having a serious chance at the Cheltenham Festival.

My read of King On The Run's form is that he doesn't handle undulations - almost certainly because of a leg injury which gives him pain on downhill stretches. I'm convinced he's not very good at jumping fences in a crowd either (note how he got hampered in a big field when third in the Great Yorkshire Chase).

If you toss out his first two starts this term, his chase runs in fields bigger than 11 and his runs on undulating tracks you'll find that before his last start King On The Run had won six of the seven previous times he'd met what I reckon to be his favored circumstances.

TANIKOS IMPROVES

TANIKOS (37) showed massive improvement on anything he's done before to run away with a decent two mile chase at Newbury. Jockey Mick Fitzgerald attributed the turnaround to the wide, open nature of the Newbury course (one of the biggest and widest in Britain). This, he felt, gave Tanikos confidence in his jumping which he's lacked before on tighter courses and in bigger fields. It may also be that the cut back to two miles helped.

I'd be wary of betting Tanikos on a tighter track than Newbury, in a much bigger field or voer a longer distance. But I guarantee his trainer, Nicky Henderson, will be equally wary of running the horse in such circumstances. So I'd say he's well worth following.

STORMY LORD AND THROUGH THE RYE UNDER-RATED

STORMY LORD (40) won a valuable novice chase at Kelso in remarkably fast time, earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a horse of his type all season.

The only way I can make sense of Stormy Lord's form is to say that he has stamina problems. If you go with this idea and toss out his runs on stiff tracks or on soft ground at two and a half miles plus you'll find that his form looks much more logical. In what may well be his favored circumstances he's won five of his last six completed and finished a close third to the brilliant Rhinestone Cowboy in a Grade 2 race in his only loss.

If I'm right, Stormy Lord won't be winning the Grand Annual at Cheltenham because the track is too stiff. He'd be very interesting at easier tracks afterwards though.

Runner-up THROUGH THE RYE (40) finally looks set to justify the huge sales price he made a few years ago. He'd won his first completed chase start on his previous run and is obviously very much at home over fences - thanks to some rigorous re-schooling by the trainer's son.

Through The Rye only just lost the County Hurdle in 2003 but isn't entered up at Cheltenham this year. So we'll have to wait for another Festival to get a decent price about him. Meanwhile I wouldn't want to oppose him in any lesser race he may contest.

CHANGE AGENT SHOULD WIN AGAIN

I don't know what went wrong with CHANGE AGENT (38) in his first three starts under rules. But the poor runs qualified him for a very low handicap mark which he took full advantage of at Kempton last Sunday. He strolled home by 22 lengths, bouncing right back to the useful form he'd shown in point to points.

Change Agent looks likely to still be well handicapped even after this run if my speed ratings are anything close to being a reliable guide. I can therefore see him winning a whole string of low grade events like this before he is finally forced up to race in his proper class.

POLAR GUNNER IS ON A ROLL

POLAR GUNNER (36) just keeps on winning. He may not quite stay two and a half miles. But his win last Sunday at Market Rasen was the fourth in his last five runs at shorter trips.

It may well be that Polar Gunner needs soft ground to produce his best form. There's plenty of that around right now though, so I can see him going in again soon.

KATIYPOUR CAN WIN AGAIN

KATIYPOUR (37) is now eight years old ran over a mile or more in 54 of his first 55 starts. But he has proved quite a revelation since switched to sprint trips for his last three starts. IN fact, if a head bob hadn't gone the wrong way in one short head loss, he would have won all of his last three outings.

Katiypour's trainer says that the shorter trips puts less pressure on the horse and therefore helps with the bleeding problem he has had throughout his career. This makes sense. So I'd bet on Katiypour continuing the rich vein of form which yielded a Listed class speed rating from me at Lingfield recently.

MOGAAMER AND COEUR COURAGEUX ARE GROUP CLASS

MOGAAMER (37) ran a monstrously fast time for a three year old this early in the year to win a maiden at Lingfield. The run marks him out as a Group class horse that could easily win one of the big three year old races coming up on the Polytrack.

Runner-up COEUR COURAGEUX (37) only just went under and pulled well clear of the rest while also earning a Group class speed rating from me. He would be a slam dunk to win a maiden race next time and a very interesting candidate for an early season pattern race or valuable handicap.

We have now seen two freakishly fast AW races for three year olds this winter. The first was the one fought out by Resplendent Glory and Francis Caddell a few weeks ago. I suspect we are now seeing the beginning of a new trend when some of the better three year olds are being brought out a good deal earlier in order to attack some of the good early season prizes available on dirt and the AW in Britain and Dubai. Most new trends create serious betting value, so I'll be looking for Mogaamer, Coeur Courageux, Resplendent Glory and Francis Caddell to win at generous odds in the next few weeks. I'll also be keeping a careful watch out for more unusually fast three year olds on the All Weather.

LIMERICK BOY LOOKS A GOOD THING FOR AINTREE

Two or three times a season speed ratings tell you something truly remarkable. They identify a genuinely top class horse that no other method could possibly spot. This was the case with LIMERICK BOY (43) who ran an incredible time for a novice when running away with the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton.

I confess that I haven't really understood Limerick Boy before. I'd thought that since he's relatively light-framed for a chaser he had difficulty jumping fences out of soft ground. This, I figured, was the reason he ran well some days and badly on others. Now, it seems to me, the explanation for Limerick Boy's in and out form is clear: He simply doesn't like undulations.

On undulating tracks Limerick Boy has lost all six of his jump starts. But on tracks without significant undulations he has won five times out of seven - and one of his losses was a smart second to Back In Front in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

My speed ratings indicate that not only is Limerick Boy much the fastest novice chaser we have seen this season but that he is the joint fastest chaser at trips short of three miles. Only Moscow Flyer himself has earned as big a speed rating from me.

The great thing about Limerick Boy from a betting standpoint is that his fantastic Kempton run looks set to be generally under-rated - and that the general negative opinion is set to be endorsed on the horse's very next start which is due to take place at Cheltenham - a steeply undulating track where he has suffered wide margin defeats two times out of two.

I can see Limerick Boy starting at nice odds when he turns out at the Aintree Festival, just as he did in 2003 when winning a Grade 2 event following a 20 length loss in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Limerick Boy has a wide choice of possible targets at Aintree. If he were mine I'd be shooting for the Red Rum Handicap Chase which was won by another novice, Tidour, last season. He'd start at big odds in that, not only because he'll almost certainly have suffered a bad loss at Cheltenham but also because he'll probably be saddled with more weight than most punters think he deserves. I don't care what weight he carries. I'd bet good money Limerick Boy will win at Aintree whatever the handicapper does and whatever race he runs in.

A lot of people are going to dismiss the Cheltenham chances of runner-up LACDOUDAL (38) because Limerick Boy buried him by a dozen lengths. But he actually ran fast enough to be competitive in any of his target races at the Festival. In fact this was the fifth occasion Lacdoudal has earned a pattern class rating from me over fences, and my ratings suggest that he is steadily improving. I see him as a major player in whatever race he finally ends up in at the big meeting.

FARMER JACK STILL LOOKING FOOD FOR MARTELL CUP

FARMER JACK (38) ran out a wide margin winner of the Racing Post Chase - once more validating his trainer's firm opinion that he's best on a flat track. I confess that I thought he'd be in trouble because of the big field. But it looks like I am now wrong about him having problems jumping in a crowd, or it could be that the slightly slower pace of the longer races he's now running in mean that he can't be stretched into jumping errors as he seemed to be in big fields at shorter trips.

Farmer Jack didn't need to run quite as fast as he had when winning the Aon Chase last time. He'll probably have to if he's steered towards the Martell Cup at Aintree next time as seems likely. But though he may be a bit shy of Gold Cup class I still struggle to think what is going to beat him there.

BET ON KALCA MOME TO FOLLOW UP RECENT WIN

KALCA MOME (40) had some useful form but ran far faster when switched back to hurdles at Warwick. He beat Champion Hurdle entrant Tamarinbleu fair and square by four lengths while that one pulled nearly 20 lengths clear of the third.

I rather suspect that Kalca Mome prefers flat tracks. He did win at Sandown once, but that was in a very slow two horse race against a maiden over jumps that hung badly. On flat tracks he has won all four of his hurdles starts since finishing second on his jumps debut.

To say that Kalca Mome is well handicapped over hurdles right now is an understatement. So I'm not surprised his connections aim to bring him back quickly before he's re-assessed. I just hope they do so on a flat track.

TAMARINBLEU (38) ran right up to his best by finishing second and is clearly holding his form much better this season than he did last. The Champion Hurdle entry now looks wildly optimistic, but the Coral Cup or County Hurdle are distinct possibilities according to my ratings. He's entered in both and would have a decent chance in either on my ratings.

ECCENTRIC THE ONE TO BEAT IN WINTER DERBY

I've mentioned before that Eccentric is one of the fastest AW performers we've seen in recent years. And he endorsed that idea with another clear cut win on Lingfield's Polytrack. He earned a pattern class speed rating from me again despite a slow early pace and has already shown he can run a fair bit faster.

Eccentric is one of those rare All Weather performers that comes along only every year or two. He's a horse that is able to totally outclass most of the rivals he faces on the sand - as horses like Hail The Chief, Running Stag, Supreme Sound and Running Stag have before him. Like those horses, Eccentric may get beaten occasionally on the AW. But that's simply due to bad luck or inexperience (as was the case when Eccentric hung badly after being in the lead for a long time on his previous start). Experience shows that we only ever get to know just how good AW horses like Eccentric really are when they face the best dirt horses on the planet in America. We'll get that opportunity soon enough. Meanwhile he still rates as the horse they all have to beat in the Winter Derby.

THIS PARTY ISN'T STOPPING YET

Our old pal PARTY BOSS (35) continued on his merry way with yet another win at Lingfield, earning what is a pattern class speed rating for an early season three year old for the second time in a row.

I don't see any reason on pedigree why Party Boss won't translate his smart form to the grass. But runner-up BIG BAND MUSIC (34) has a dirt pedigree through and through, so I'd like to see David Loder strike with him before the AW winter season ends. If he does I'd be wary of opposing him against his own age group - unless of course he bumps up against Party Boss again.

INSTRUCTOR AND WESSEX CAN WIN AGAIN

INSTRUCTOR (36) and WESSEX (36) were separated by just a short head at the end of an unusually fast run handicap over a mile at Southwell. Both are much faster than the average winner in this class, so they ought to be able to win again soon.

It may be significant that Instructor has now won both times that he's run a mile on the AW and lost all 11 times he's tried grass or another distance.

Wessex seems a good deal more versatile as to distance and surface, and would have been winning for the fourth time in a row if the head bob had gone the other way.