GENTLEMAN'S DEAL SHOULD GO TO AMERICA

GENTLEMAN'S DEAL (39) stretched his unbeaten run on the AW to seven when taking the Winter Derby. And despite the slow pace managed to run a very decent time.

It is pretty obvious now that Gentleman's Deal is one of the very best horses ever to run on AW tracks in Europe. Indeed on his previous two starts he earned speed ratings that put him on a par with Running Stag and River Keen - each of whom won millions of dollars on dirt in America.

I can only imagine what trainer Mick Easterby would say to this, but it seems to me that it's crazy to continue campaigning Gentleman's Deal on grass. He's lost the last six times he's run on grass but is a world class horse on AW and dirt surfaces.

If he were mine I'd not only be accepting the invitation to run in the Hollywood Gold Cup, I'd be shipping him over to America right away and mopping up the huge prizes now available over there on both Polytrack, similar artificial surfaces and dirt.

From a local standpoint, the horse to take out of the race is surely the very close third ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (39).

Illustrious Blue clearly can't handle yielding or soft ground. But he'd won the previous five times he'd encountered a faster surface and earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me in Dubai. I see him as a very likely winner in Group company in the near future when he gets his ground or sticks to Polytrack which closely mimics the physical properties of firm turf.

Fourth placed MIGHTY (39) has been amazingly consistent on Polytrack. And seeing that his siblings Danehurst and Humoresque both translated their smart AW form to the grass I'd say he'll soon be emulating them by taking pattern races on that surface.

BOO (38) showed that he's still a force to be reckoned with on Polytrack despite losing for the 19th time in a row. On this surface I'd bet him to win pretty much any handicap in the near future.

KING ORCHISIOS CAN WIN MORE BIG SPRINTS

KING ORCHISIOS (39) won a race that I'll always think of as the Prix de l'Abbaye du Lingfield on Winter Derby day. It was a fiercely competitive sprint that he took in very fast time, fast enough to make him look like a future Group winner.

As is the case with many Polytrack performers, King Orchisios needs fast going to be effective on turf. When he gets it I'd expect him to win more big sprints.

HINTON ADMIRAL FAST ENOUGH TO WIN A GUINEAS TRIAL

HINTON ADMIRAL (38) earned a seriously big speed rating for a three year old this early in the year when taking the Listed Spring Cup at Lingfield. He proved here that he can stay at least seven furlongs so I'd be very interested in his chances if he contested something like the Greenham in a few week's time. Obviously he'd need the ground to be fast like most Polytrack performers but that's more than likely at this time of year.

Unlike the winner, HURRICANE SPIRIT (37) is entered in the 2000 Guineas. He showed that he's worth a shot at that contest by running the very smart winner to just three parts of a length. His form on Polytrack has been brilliant and there's no reason he won't translate it to firm turf. His trainer has already talked about going for the Greenham, and I'd like his chances there.

RED CAPE BETTER OVER LONGER

RED CAPE (38) won a valuable handicap on Lingfield's Winter Derby card in a time that would be good enough to take many Group 3 contests. This being so it's amazing that he'd lost his previous eleven outings. I suspect the reason for this is that he was largely running over too short a distance or had his chances compromised by the slow early pace which is the norm on Polytrack.

Now that he's won so well over seven furlongs I'd like to see Red Cape step up again to a mile. It would also be interesting to see him back on turf where he'd more often get the strong early pace he probably needs.

DANCER CAN STEPPE UP TO GROUP 3 CLASS

STEPPE DANCER (38) showed that he is one of the better Polytrack performers when beating the useful Geordieland (37) to score in Listed company at Kempton. He's now won all three times he's run on Polytrack beyond a sprint trip and is more than capable of making the step up to Group 3 class outlined by his connections according to my ratings.

DRYANDRA (36) improved when stepped up to 12 furlongs two runs back and improved again over the same distance here. On this run she is capable of winning in Listed company against her own sex and would be pretty much unstoppable in fillies only handicaps over this sort of distance.

PIPPA GREENE AND OLD ETONIAN ARE PATTERN CLASS

It was no big surprise that the maiden on Lingfield's biggest AW card of the season was run in pattern class time. What was surprising was that the two horses which pulled clear of the field were first time starters in PIPPA GREENE (36) and OLD ETONIAN (36).

At this stage it's impossible to say just how good either of these smart young horses are. All I can say right now is that if either of them were to run in a Derby Trial I'd consider them carefully. Most likely both are going to be earning black type before long.

FLEET STREET AS GOOD AS EVER

The handicap hurdle that FLEET STREET (38) won at Newbury gets my vote as the best race worth less than 5000 pounds to the winner of the entire jumps season. Several smart horses were clearly using it as a prep for bigger events, including Fleet Street.

Fleet Street was third in the 2004 Supreme Novices' Hurdle but had managed just one run in the previous three years before his Newbury success.

The going was good judged by race times not the official good to soft. And fast ground is apparently essential for Fleet Street. This being so I'd imagine his connections will be keeping an open mind about whether to go to Aintree, Punchestown or the Scottish Champion Hurdle with him and letting the weather make up their minds. Wherever they go I'd be wary of opposing Fleet Street as he won this race really well in very fast time and has run faster in the past.

SWING BILL (37) improved massively for the switch back to hurdles to chase Fleet Street home. He now looks very well handicapped over timber and will surely be shooting for a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree or Punchestown. If he goes for a lesser race I'd rate him a good thing.

The other horse to take out of the race just has to be PRIORS DALE (36) who went well for a long way and looked the winner till in between the last two. He put up a pretty amazing performance considering that he's one of the top novice chasers according to my speed ratings but was running over hurdles here. This looked an ideal preparation for one of the two mile novice chases at Aintree where he'll probably be the fastest runner on my ratings.

HEARTHSTEAD WINGS IS WORTH NOTING

TRITONIX (36) won a novice hurdle in pattern class time at Warwick and clearly deserves a shot at Aintree. But for me the horse to take out of the race just has to be the fifteen length third HEARTHSTEAD WINGS (29).

I concede that Hearthstead Wings didn't run much of a time here. But 11 months ago he earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me on the flat and I think I've now discovered the key to him.

It seems clear now that Hearthstead Wings simply must have fast ground. It has been genuinely firm every time he's won according to the going allowances I make for my speed ratings. So he did very well to run third on what I rated good to soft ground here.

The second obvious thing about Hearthstead Wings is that he doesn't like dead flat galloping tracks. He seems to need tight turns or undulations to break up the gallop.

This being so I have no problem excusing Hearthstead Wings his debut effort which took place on the dead flat giant oval of Newbury on what my going allowances say was heavy ground.

It seems very likely to me that Hobbs has held back on Hearthstead Wings since so that he could save him for a Spring campaign on fast ground. With the drier weather now arriving I see Hearthstead Wings as horse that's likely to win a couple of novice events easily before the season is out. In fact if he made it to Aintree and the going was firm I'd be very interested in his chances.

IS SUBLIMITY REALLY A CHAMPION?

When a horse scores as big an upset in a Championship race it's natural to doubt it's ability. And in the case of this season's Champion Hurdle winner SUBLIMITY (41) I'm afraid that I'm going to jump on the bandwagon and knock him.

Sublimity only ran a second a mile faster than the juvenile hurdlers managed in a very ordinary renewal of the Fred Winter on the same card, and he was only two fifths of a second quicker than the winner of the Supreme Novices'. This being so I can't quite give him a proper Grade 1 rating for the win.

Sublimity looks to be a horse whose soundness is suspect. He was sold suspiciously cheaply at 32,000 guineas out of Michael Stoute's yard considering that he was rated 110 on the flat, had won in pattern company and cost 210,000 guineas as a yearling. When a horse this good goes that cheap it just has to mean it did not pass the vet.

Sublimity's form certainly looks like that of an unsound horse. In the last three years he's failed to score on anything but good or slower ground, and all of his wins have come off a break of more than six weeks. Having said that I should note that he has actually won the last five times he's been away for more than six weeks and returned on good or slower going. So he's obviously got real ability and is tough to beat in the right circumstances.

Obviously Sublimity is hugely unlikely to win a second Champion Hurdle as he's surely not going to get good or slower ground again next year. In addition he's clearly going to be hard to keep sound.

I don't know where Sublimity goes from here. But he'd be a horse to oppose if he ran at Aintree as that meeting would come too soon unless I'm much mistaken. And he'd need wet weather to win if he's kept fresh for Punchestown.

Until I'm proved wrong I'm going to regard Sublimity's Champion win as a very strange one-off that's not going to be repeated unless he's rested and manages to find some cut in the ground.

BRAVE INCA (39) has been hitting slightly sub-par speed ratings for him this season and did so again here. In fact he only managed to beat Afsoun a neck into second. I'm inclined to believe he's slowly deteriorating.

HARDY EUSTACE (39) actually got beat by Afsoun for third and also ran below his best. He was stretched by the fast pace and I'm now beginning to think that unless the going is really soft or heavy he now needs two and a half miles to produce his best.

I don't know what happened to DETROIT CITY (31). He should have been able to win this race easily on what he'd done before. Clearly something was amiss. His trainer Phillip Hobbs says he could find nothing wrong with the horse at home afterwards and that he'd scoped clean. But I read one report right after the race where Detroit City's jockey said the horse finished slightly distressed. I also note with interest that Detroit City's owner told the Press Association a few days before the race that the horse was "10 kilos lighter than when he ran at Sandown." That's a large amount for even a big horse to lose between races, and I can't help wondering whether it was too much. Detroit City earned the two biggest speed ratings I've given a hurdler in his two runs before Cheltenham. Maybe the fast races had an affect. Who knows. Let's just hope he bounces back at Aintree.

One interesting aspect of the Champion Hurdle for me is that it makes it seem likely that age is now catching up with Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace. With the winner looking vulnerable as well, this leaves Detroit City towering above all other hurdlers if only he can regain his form.

MY WAY IS UP AND DOWN

MY WAY DE SOLZEN (42) won the Arkle in very good time and is clearly best going up hill and down dale on tracks like Chetlenham. He won a nothing race at six to one on a dead flat track in his prep run. But his previous form shows that he's much better going uphill and down dale on undulating courses like this one. He's now won the last six times he's run on tracks described as 'undulating' by the Racing Post and lost the last six times he's run on tracks that aren't.

My Way De Solzen of course won the World Hurdle last year. And if you look at his pedigree you'll find plenty of stamina. His sire was a two and a half mile Group 1 winner on the flat. His dam was a chaser who stayed three miles. She won one minor chase over a short trip from 11 tries but six of her seven chasing wins came over 2m 5f or more (she's only had one other foal that raced once in a flat race). This being so, the obvious target for My Way De Solzen next season must be the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The problem there is that French-breds, almost certainly due to their lighter physiques have a dreadful record in non-novice chases that feature as many runners as the Gold Cup attracts nowadays. For this reason I wouldn't be wanting to bet him ante-post at this stage.

FAIR ALONG (39) predictably got into a good deal of traffic problems but did well to finish second. I say predictably because Sarah Hobbs, the wife of Fair Along's trainer told reporters "he's barely 15 hands high". This is incredibly small for a chaser. Normally a horse has to be at least 16 hands to jump fences effectively ( a hand being four inches). A 15 hand horse is only six inches taller than a standard steeplechase fence.

Ninety nine times out of a hundred small horses have problems in big fields, especially over fences where they have to fight for position when trying to find a good spot to take off and land.

Fair Along had been able to stay out of trouble over fences before this by scooting straight into the lead and being kept to races where he faced five or fewer rivals. In the Arkle it was inevitable that he'd get taken on for the lead and crowded, and that's what happened.

Fair Along was able to win juvenile hurdles in biggish fields. But take a look at the runners before a juvenile hurdle and you'll see why. All the runners are invariably wimpy, light-framed ex flat racers like Fair Along who are small just like him.

Fair Along's more recent runs demonstrate his problem. He's won six of the seven times he's run in fields of 12 or less but lost all seven times he's run in bigger fields. Given his size, I doubt that he's ever going to be fully effective in anything but a single figure field over fences.

JACK THE GIANT (39) surprisingly got the fast ground he needs. The official going report at Cheltenham turned out to be laughably inaccurate.

Jack The Giant has run one good race after another on fast ground and is a seriously fast horse. He got a bit excited by the false start and probably went off a bit quick for his own good here. If he gets his ground at Aintree or Punchestown he'd be tough to beat.

FAASEL (39) looked more interesting the more I studied his form before the race. I came to the conclusion that he is one of those horses that needs plenty of cover. I theorized that when he runs in a small field and sees too much daylight he runs close but appears unwilling to go through with his effort. Since he started wearing headgear he'd lost all ten times he's run in single figure fields. But if the photo had gone the other way in the Triumph he would have won seven of the eight times he'd run in fields of ten or more before the Arkle.

Sure enough Faasel ran tremendously well to finish fourth in fast time but it was obvious from the way he got far back early and stayed on late that he needs further than two miles over fences. When he gets it and encounters a field of ten or more I'd be wary of opposing him.

DON'T PUSH IT had run almost as fast as the winner previously and I suspect he would have finished a decent second if he hadn't tipped up. Clearly he wants a longer trip and showed it by having to be pushed along early.

I don't know whether Don't Push It will get the Gold Cup trip next year. But he certainly looks an interesting prospect for the King George as he's already run as fast as most of the horses he'd be meeting in that race.

TWIST MAGIC was also bang there when he tipped up. But I rather doubt that he'd have finished as strongly as Don't Push It.

Twist Magic won a 1m 7f hurdle at Auteuil on good to firm ground (forget the official 'very soft' going description - race times say it was good to firm). However his three wins in Britain have all come on tight triangular or rectangular circuits where the turns have made it less of a test of stamina. He'd run four times on more conventional circuits prior to the Arkle and been beaten 29 and a half lengths or more every single time.

I'm happy to forgive LENNON (24) his loss as he just doesn't seem to be suited to tracks like Cheltenham. He's won seven times out of nine on tight tracks and lost all five times he's run on galloping ones. The three races he's contested on stiff courses like Cheltenham have all resulted in wide margin losses.

Lennon is a fast horse on a tight track. So don't dismiss his chances if he turns out at Aintree.

EBAZIYAN HARD TO ASSESS

I'm not going to pretend that I understand a horse that's only run three times over hurdles and another three times on the flat over the sort of distances he's bred for. So I'm going to bide my time before forming an opinion about this year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner EBAZIYAN (40).

Right now all I can say is that Ebaziyan only ran a Grade 2 class time. So he needs to improve a fair bit to become a Champion Hurdle contender. In addition he's a very well bred full horse that's just won a Grade 1. This means he's already worth a good deal as a potential jumps stallion and his owners will surely succumb sooner rather than later to the temptation to stand him at stud rather than keep risking him on the racecourse.

KAUTO STAR'S TIME WAS VERY SLOW

Kauto Star (32) was one of my big lays of the Cheltenham Festival. One reason was that I doubted his stamina. As it turned out the Gold Cup wasn't much of a stamina test at all. It merited a speed rating just four points higher than a rather weak renewal of the Foxhunters over the same course and distance.

I'm still no great fan of Kauto Star because he has yet to run a truly top class time by my estimates. Maybe he can. But until he does I'm going to continue to oppose him. The same goes for the runner up Exotic Dancer (31) whose stamina for three miles I still doubt in a truly run race.

IS DENMAN GOOD ENOUGH FOR GOLD CUP?

DENMAN (39) blew home in the Sun Alliance Chase just as most people thought he would. His only loss in eleven outings (I'm including his point win) came when he ran second over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival last year. Clearly he's one smart horse. But is he good enough to win the Gold Cup? Right now I'm inclined to be skeptical.

This was the fourth occasion that I've awarded Denman a speed rating of 39. In my experience when a horse keeps earning the same peak rating it normally indicates the limit of their ability. If I'm right then Denman is only a Grade 2 horse who will be very vulnerable when he steps out of novice company next term.

VOY POR USTEDES DOES IT

VOY POR USTEDES (42) proved me wrong when winning the Champion Chase. I thought that nowadays he would need two and a half miles to run to this sort of form. But he did fine here, though perhaps he was helped by the searching early pace and the stiffness of the track. And I note with interest that his trainer did initially talk about stepping him up to two and a half miles at Aintree.

At some point Voy Por Ustedes will try a longer distance and I for one will be very interested to see just what he can do. If, as I still suspect, he improves for a step up in trip, then he could be truly awesome.

The going came right for fast ground specialist DEMPSEY (41) who ran his best ever race on a left-handed track to chase the winner home, having looked like scoring himself for a long way. Dempsey's eight wins have all come on right-handed courses. So if he gets his ground in the big Sandown Chase next month he'll be tough to beat.

CROZAN GETTING INTERESTING

I spent the best part of six hours studying the form for the Ryanair Chase and concluded that CROZAN was a fabulous bet at big odds. I seemed clear to me that he had been specially laid out for this race by Nicky Henderson who does so well at the meeting. His form looked fantastic as he would have won the last three times he'd run less than three miles off a lay-off if two photo finishes had gone the other way. He'd lost to Tamarinbleu at Ascot who can beat just about anything when he's fresh and to the brilliant Ma Royale in France - a multiple Grade 1 placed mare who went on to win her next three races.

My read of Crozan was that he couldn't act on soft ground, didn't stay three miles but was otherwise one tough hombre when fresh as he was for the Ryanair.

With two to jump I was counting my winnings as Crozan was still moving well in the lead. But of course he tipped up and I was left to ponder what might have been. Certainly next time Crozan runs on decent ground at less than three miles I'll be very interested in his chances.

The winner was TARANIS (38) who is remarkably consistent on yielding or faster ground. His trainer, Paul Nicholls, says he was unsuited by the really soft ground when third to Exotic Dancer. But he's now won all six times that he's completed the course on what I rate genuinely yielding or faster ground. For this reason I suspect he may well be able to run a bit faster than he showed here.

RACING DEMON (36) had his annual attempt at proving he can adapt to a left-handed course. Predictably he jumped to the right and ran below form.

Last year Henrietta Knight said she made a mistake by running Racing Demon in the Arkle instead of in the Sun Alliance Chase over three miles. I rather wonder whether she didn't made another mistake in not going for the Gold Cup over a longer trip this time. A horse with jumping quirks has a better chance of having them corrected by their jockey at the slower pace of a longer race. This surely explains why Desert Orchid, the most famous right-handed jumper of all time, was able to overcome his tendency to go right well enough to win the Gold Cup but not the Champion Chase.

I'm prepared to believe that Racing Demon will eventually win left-handed when he steps up to the three miles that he's so obviously bred for. But until he proves otherwise I've got to believe that he'll be stretched into jumping errors when asked to go left-handed over a distance as short as this.

GASPARA WINS IN FAST TIME - FOR A JUVENILE

GASPARA (37) scored her third wide margin win in succession to take an unusually weak renewal of the Imperial Cup. The thing to bear in mind though is that she's a juvenile. And for a juvenile she ran a pretty fast time. Therefore, if she's recovered in time, she looks to have a great chance of picking up the big bonus for winning this race and at the Cheltenham Festival when she runs in the Fred Winter. After that though she's probably going to be very hard to place as she's not really fast enough to win another big handicap hurdle against older horses and was nothing like as good as this over fences.

MASTER OVERSEER A GOOD CHASING PROSPECT

MASTER OVERSEER (31) won in unusually fast time for a bumper winner on his racecourse debut, scoring by no less than 23 lengths. He's totally bred to be a three mile chaser so clearly ought to be able to improve on this over jumps. Right now he's only four so I imagine he won't make the transition to fences till the season after next. When he does I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him develop into a Sun Alliance candidate.

STARTING POINT FINALLY FRANKS SCHIEHALLION FORM

STARTING POINT (28) ran a time that is noteworthy for a Bumper when scoring at Newcastle. He's obviously going to be a very decent novice hurdler. But the interesting thing for me is that his success finally franks the form of SCHIEHALLION who won what I rated much the fastest bumper of the season in Britain back in November.

I don't know why Schiehallion ran so poorly on his only subsequent start. But the fact that he's been off for nearly three months since and holds no current entries suggests he had some sort of a physical problem. Hopefully he'll be back next season when I'd bet on him becoming one of the top novice hurdlers.

PETITJEAN SHOULD WIN AGAIN

PETITJEAN (37) ran away with a class 3 handicap chase at Wincanton. He'd bolted up the previous time he'd run on the course too. So it seems more likely than not that there's something about the configuration of the track that agrees with him. It could be he prefers going right-handed or that he likes tight turns. It might also be that he's simply encountered enough trouble to cause him to run below form elsewhere. At this stage it's too early to say. All I can say at this point is that Petitjean ran a pattern class time here and should win again soon.

DICHOH IS AN INTERESTING PROSPECT

DICHOH (37) won a class 4 handicap over a mile at Southwell from a good field in Listed class time. Clearly he's a very interesting prospect. And with the flat season proper drawing near, the question now becomes 'will he act on turf?'

So far Dichoh does seem to be better on the slowest two AW surfaces - Southwell and Kempton. And it looks like this is because they tend to produce a stronger early pace. He's actually run a decent time on Lingfield's lightning fast Polytrack but got outpaced when the gallop stepped up off the slow early gallop that's the norm there.

Most horses that can handle Polytrack do adapt to turf. But in the case of Dichoh I strongly suspect he is going to need firm ground to do so. His dam bombed the only time she ran on soft ground and so did Dichoh on his racecourse debut.

In addition I'd be wary of betting Dichoh in small fields where a tactical race seems likely to develop. I reckon he'll be at his best in big field handicaps where a strong early pace is certain. It could also be that despite his speedy pedigree he'll actually get more than a mile. In any event, in the right circumstances, I can easily see Dichoh winning a big handicap on grass this term.

ORCHARD SUPREME IS TOUGH TO WIN WITH

ORCHARD SUPREME (38) won the valuable Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton in a time that would take many Group 3 races. So it's puzzling that he's lost so many times in lesser races. My guess is that he needs a recent run (22 days or less), prefers Polytrack and is best from one of the six widest draws. This describes most of his wins but it does suggest he's going to be hard to catch right again as his high handicap mark will force him to continually race against horses that are at least as fast as him. His next stop is the Winter Derby but I doubt he'd be good enough for that unless the field is unusually weak

DAYTONA NOT FAR OFF PATTERN CLASS

Judged on the times his youngsters have been running on the AW Mark Johnston has a very strong group of three year olds this year. Another one emerged when DAYTONA (35) won a maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack in a time only just shy of pattern class.

Mark Johnston has an amazing knack of getting his horses to outstay their pedigrees, so it's not surprising that Daytona was stepping up in distance here. You could argue that he's stay middle distances on his pedigree. And with Johnston doing the training I wouldn't be at all surprised if Daytona didn't do just that. Meanwhile a step up to a mile or so shouldn't be a problem at all.

ESPRIT SAINT AND BRUMOUS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

ESPRIT SAINT (40) must be one of the most unlucky horses in training. Two runs back he went under in a photo to the very smart German horse Quirino who had passed the post first in his three previous outings (including Grade 2 & 3 contests). Now he's been beaten in another photo by a horse that ran a Grade 2 class time by my estimates in BRUMOUS (40).

In both races Esprit Saint pulled a huge distance clear of the third and would now be lauded as one of the top novice chasers but for bumping into two ludicrously smart rivals for the class of race he was contesting.

The plus side of Esprit Saint's bad luck is that he now has an incredibly low official handicap rating. This being so, I imagine his connections will want to exploit it by saving him for a valuable handicap. That probably means they'll need to wait until Aintree. If they run him before then he'll probably win a normal novice chase by a street and blow his current handicap mark.

Brumous is also very well handicapped and I imagine his connections will also want to exploit this. The horse has won three of the four times he's run two and a half miles or more. He was second in his sole loss, and that was over hurdles.

In the long run I'd be interested in Brumous for next season's Hennessy at Newbury. Right now I'd be very wary of opposing him whether he goes for a handicap or a novice chase.

DOES MADISON DU BERLAIS NEED A SMALL FIELD?

I've written up MADISON DU BERLAIS (39) so many times here that it's getting rather boring. But I've got to report that he ran yet another fast time to take the valuable VC Casino.com Gold Cup at Newbury.

I'm now inclined to believe that Madison Du Berlais is best in fields of 11 or less. He's won six of his seven British outings in fields of 11 or less when he's had a recent run, and my research shows that many French bred horses struggle in bigger fields over fences due to their relatively small stature.

Madison Du Berlais got hampered in a big field when third in the Grand Annual at last year's Cheltenham Festival. If my analysis is right then he's going to encounter similar problems coping with the traffic this time around in the big field that's certain to line up in the Racing Post Plate. Afterwards though he's always going to be a threat in smaller fields.

NOZIC (39) ran a big race to run Madison Du Berlais to a neck. He's fast enough to be interesting in big conditions chases which I imagine he'll soon be running in thanks to his huge official handicap rating.

BYWELL BEAU A SMART FRONT RUNNER ON TIGHT TRACKS

BYWELL BEAU (38) took a long time to break his maiden over hurdles but has improved radically since his connections cut him back to shorter trips, ran him on tight tracks and allowed him to bowl along in front. He's now won by a wide margin all three times he's run less than two and a half miles on a tight track. His latest success was a 23 length romp in a Grade 2 at Kelso.

Bywell Beau is bred to be a chaser, and front running tactics such as his are often successful in the novice ranks. So he's going to be very interesting over fences next term. Meanwhile though he shapes up as a very interesting contender for Aintree.

MAGIC SKY PROBABLY BEST ON A FLAT TRACK

MAGIC SKY (38) ran his best ever race in the UK to take a decent chase at Ayr. The only decent explanation I can come up with for the improvement he showed is that he's best on a flat, galloping track. He's won three of the four times he's run on such tracks in Britain and was second to Tonrkinking in a very fast two mile hurdle in his sole loss.

There aren't many flat galloping tracks, so I imagine Magic Sky's form is going to continue to be spotty. But when he runs on a course like this again I'll be very interested in his chances.

LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE (36) didn't take to fences but showed he's still a useful soft ground hurdler when reverting to the smaller jumps at Bangor. He's now won three of the five times he's encountered soft or heavy ground over timber and finished second in his two losses (one of them a Grade 2). He's capable of winning in better company and looks likely to follow up this success.

PARKINSON IS STILL UNDER-RATED

PARKINSON (36) started off his chasing career in a handicap where his official rating of 72 was based on his three previous wide margin losses over hurdles. It turns out he's actually a useful performer. But his handicap mark is still way below what it should be for a horse of his ability thanks to its ludicrously low starting point.

Parkinson has been kept to handicap company over fences, presumably to preserve his official rating, and it's been a successful ploy. He's now won all five of his completed starts over fences, his latest success coming at Ludlow in very decent time.

How good Parkinson is I just can't say at this point as he doesn't seem to do much more than is necessary to win. He's certainly capable of continuing to win pretty much any handicap he runs in over fences below pattern class.

ORACADIAN CONSISTENT ON A FLAT TRACK IN A SMALL FIELD

ORCADIAN (37) has a great record in small fields on dead flat tracks. So it was no big surprise to see him run away with a class 3 handicap hurdle at Newbury. After all he's a Group horse on the flat.

It looks likely that Orcadian will face fields bigger than he can cope with if he goes to Aintree or returns to Newbury for the John Porter Stakes next time. But when he next encounters a field smaller than 12 on a dead flat track I'd be interested in his chances.

LOPINOT IS IMPROVING

LOPINOT (36) won a mile handicap in very fast time for the class on Lingfield's Polytrack. He'd won a maiden by a wide margin on his previous outing and is clearly useful. His speed ratings just keep getting bigger, so I'd be surprised if he can't be placed to win again soon.

SAMARINDA BETTER THAN CLASS 5

SAMARINDA (36) flopped over hurdles. But he's done nothing but improve since being switched back to Polytrack. He's now won or finished less than a length behind the winner four times in a row. Last week he scored in seriously fast time at Wolverhampton in a class 5 handicap and is way better than that grade according to my speed ratings. This being so he ought to be winning again soon.