HUGE RUN BY DON’T PANIC

DON’T PANIC (40) absolutely blitzed his opponents in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, coming home by four lengths in a time 0.98 seconds faster than the Lincoln later on the card.

Sectional times show that Don’t Panic’s performance was even better than the raw times made it look. They reached the halfway point in his race 1.8 seconds sooner than they did in the Lincoln. His rivals naturally started to tire following such a strong early pace. But Don’t Panic didn’t. When he was shaken up in the closing stages he produced a seriously good finish, running the last furlong in just 13.6 seconds compared with the 13.9 seconds taken by the Lincoln winner Smokey Oakey.

Don’t Panic has now won all three times that he’s run a mile. He’s also won all three times he’s run on ground with real cut in it. Clearly over a mile on yielding or softer ground he’s a proper Group class horse. He has won on faster going but it looks like he’s best with cut.

Where Don’t Panic goes from here I don’t know. I imagine he’ll be stepping up to Pattern company though, and if he gets his ground I won’t be opposing him.

KEEP AN EYE ON MIRAMARE

Two horses that have repeatedly got over-excited before their races dominated the finish of the Listed Dragonfly Stakes at Kempton, and both look well worth following.

The winner was MALT OR MASH (34) who overcame the stop-go tactics employed on front running MIRAMARE (32) to win well.

Malt Or Mash blew his chances with pre-race antics at a couple of big meetings last year but has now won the other five times he’s gone ten furlongs or more. Here he showed a good turn of foot to pick up Miramare as she sprinted for home before looking to blow up through lack of fitness in the final half furlong or so (something confirmed by his trainer who said he’s a very stuffy horse that badly needed the run).

Jockey Ryan Moore said afterwards that Malt Or Mash had too many gears to be effective on anything but a fast surface. That seems logical but the idea has yet to be tested and I would be wary of assuming it’s true until it’s proven because Malt Or Mash is such a strong horse he may go through soft ground anyway.

It’s hard to tell what the time of a slow run race would have been if they’d gone a strong gallop throughout. But Malt Or Mash earned ratings of 39 and 41 from me last year. And the fact that he and Miramare drew fifteen lengths clear of their pursuers suggests he probably didn’t run far off that sort of level. I remain rather hopeful that he can prove competitive in Group 1 company and wouldn’t dream of opposing him in his next target, Newbury’s John Porter Stakes, if he gets his ground.

I know that the connections of Malt Or Mash see him developing into a Cup horse. This run, where he had to quicken up off a slow pace, tells me that he’s still very effective over a mile and a half.

Malt Or Mash seems to be over his pre-race nerves. This is not yet the case with Miramare who had to be taken down early and loaded with the help of a Monty Roberts blanket. She came out of the stalls like a scalded cat and set a quick pace for a couple of furlongs before slowing the gallop right down. She kicked on again with half a mile to go and soon had everything in trouble bar the winner.

Miramare kept on well when headed but clearly doesn’t have much in the way of a turn of foot. She has a rather peculiar, very long stride which makes her look like a rocking horse when she’s running. I suspect she’s going to stay really well. Long term she looks a good prospect for the Park Hill Stakes. Right now she’s surely a slam dunk to take any fillies Listed race over a mile and a half or so. And that funny stride of hers suggests she’ll have no trouble coping with soft ground.

DESERT QUEST STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FOR AINTREE

DESERT QUEST (36) clocked another good time when winning a two mile novice chase at Ludlow. He was the only horse to chase the searching early gallop set by Tyup Pompey. And when that one tired with four to jump he was left in front – not a great position to be for a horse that tends to idle when he’s been in the lead too long. Sure enough Desert Quest ran around in the lead and idled but still held on nicely to win in decent time.

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m convinced Desert Quest will be best at two and a half miles over fences. Here the strong early pace made it enough of a stamina test for him. At Aintree he will have the chance to go back up to two and a half miles, a trip he’s unbeaten at in two starts.

Desert Quest has now won three of his four starts over fences and run second in a hot race in his sole defeat. I suspect he’s going to do well in handicaps in future, just as he did over hurdles, because the big fields in such races afford him plenty of cover.

Runner-up CITY AFFAIR (35) had won three of his four most recent outings over hurdles and showed that he’s just as good over fences by staying on strongly to take second. Clearly he also benefited from the strong early pace. His previous form was over two and a half miles, and I’d like to see him step back up to that sort of trip next time. In a more normally run race he’d probably find two miles too short.

BEESNEEZ CAN RUN QUICKER

I was seriously impressed with the performance of BEESNEEZ (35) in winning a two and a half mile handicap chase at Ludlow. He was always moving the best in a strongly run race. And with five to jump he was still cruising while very single one of his rivals was being ridden along. He took the lead very quickly when shaken up and would have won the race by a bigger margin if he hadn’t run green and wandered in the closing stages.

It looked to me that Beesneez had plenty in hand at the finish and could easily have run a pattern class time if pressed. He’s improved massively with every run and looks a very interesting prospect.

ECHO POINT INTERESTING BACK OVER HURDLES

ECHO POINT (36) has always been a useful horse. But his two chase wins were over fences that claim a very low percentage of fallers. Over stiffer fences he’s not done at all well. So it makes sense to switch him back to hurdles.

Most horses that have been chasing a while need at least one run back over hurdles to get their eye in over the smaller jumps. Normally they waste energy through overjumping and run below form until they’ve made the adjustment.

With that run under his belt, Echo Point went really well at Market Rasen in good 2m 6f hurdle. As ever he set a strong pace and looked a sure winner turning into the homestraight as all his rivals were under pressure and he was still cruising. However the eventual winner HEIR TO BE (36) jumped by him two out and went clear. Echo Point did come back at him on the run in and I got the feeling he’ll do even better next time with this second run back over timber under his belt.

This run proved that Echo Point can still run a pattern class time and do so over a longer trip to boot. Right now he’s looking very well handicapped over hurdles. So his connections will no doubt be looking for the most valuable race possible to exploit the handicapper’s generosity. I imagine they’ll be having a long hard look at the Aintree Festival where I’d find Echo Point to be a very interesting proposition.

You could argue that Echo Point needs to be fresher than he will be at Aintree. But he’s still a lightly raced horse, so it’s hard to read any strong patterns into his form. Personally I’d be inclined to support him if he runs at Aintree and would find it hard to oppose him in any lesser contest he might contest.

DENMAN PROVES ME WRONG

I've been knocking DENMAN (42) all season because sectional times showed that he'd been winning his races with a sprint of around six furlongs in what were otherwise slow run races.

In the Gold Cup Denman showed that he could produce a six furlong sprint off a reasonably good pace as well. His jockey took a long look around after the fifteenth and decided it was time to push the button. The result was that Denman ran 1 minute 34.5 seconds from the sixteenth fence to the second last. That's 3.1 seconds faster than they managed in the two mile Grand Annual and 7.1 seconds faster than in the Foxhunters. In other words Denman's six furlong sprint accounted for 52% of the difference in time between the two big three and a quarter mile chases on the card.

As ever Denman tired towards the end of his big sprint` taking exactly a second longer to run from the last to the finish than in the Foxhunters and 2.3 seconds longer than in the Grand Annual.

The presence of NEPTUNES COLLONGES (40) and HALCON GENALARDAIS (37) in third and fourth suggests this wasn't as good a performance by Denman as many seem to suppose. Both are smart horses, but, as their connections have repeatedly said, neither likes Cheltenham. In fact I've had to assume that both ran significantly faster than they ever had before at Cheltenham which makes me a little uncomfortable about the big rating I've given Denman.

I have to say that I am still no fan of Denman. I can't help wondering just how well he'd have done here if he'd been forced to go the searching early pace that Kauto Star had to contend with in the King George. My belief is that his sprint would have been of shorter duration and that he'd have tired earlier and quite possibly lost. Only time will tell if I'm right.

KAUTO STAR (40) was probably feeling the effect of his very fast race at Ascot which his trainer admitted afterwards probably took the edge off him. He was also stretched into jumping errors at the 16th and 17th fences as Denman began his sprint, and again at the last. Clearly he's best suited by a stronger early pace and can get stretched into jumping errors when a race develops into a sprint.

As a fan of Kauto Star I'd like to believe that he'll be able to turn this result around in next year's Gold Cup. But no horse has ever won two or more Gold Cups in non-consecutive years. Once this particular crown has slipped from their grasp it seems there's no getting it back.

In fact the last twelve Cheltenham Gold Cup winners have all run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase. This excludes Kauto Star from consideration next year., though it should include Denman, unless he's campaigned more ambitiously than seems likely.

Personally I plan to indulge in a case of sour grapes and will look for something from this season's vintage crop of novice chasers to beat Denman next year. But even I have to admit that this was a pretty good performance by the beast.

MASTER MINDED IS REALLY FAST

MASTER MINDED (43) ran a seriously fast time to take the Champion Chase, sprinting away from his rivals from two out in the most remarkable style. Clearly he's a very smart chaser over two miles, having won the last five time he's completed the course over trips short of two and a half miles.

It's worth noting that Master Minded was tiring in the closing stages. This is why he took 56.9 seconds to run from the third last to the finish compared with the 55.2 seconds by Tidal Bay when you adjust for the difference in going. Then again Tidal Bay is clearly more of a stayer than Master Minded, so it makes sense he should finish stronger.

In any event we clearly have a very smart two mile chaser here. The usual warnings apply, namely that, like almost all the top two mile chasers, it looks likely that Master Minded needs to be kept fresh to run this well. I would have bet on him 'bouncing' off this run if he'd turned out at Aintree. But he's going to Punchestown instead which should give him enough time to recover. In addition, Master Minded clearly has problems going longer trips, so he'd be well worth opposing if his connections decided to experiment by stepping him up in distance later on. Also he's yet to prove that he can handle faster ground and his trainer has suggested he may not.

That said, I'd be wary of betting any horse to beat Master Minded at two miles right now.

VOY POR USTEDES (34) was stretched by the sustained burst of speed shown by Master Minded and tired after being flat to the boards from a long way out. I think now would be a good time to step him up to two and a half miles. He's always looked like he would stay the trip on pedigree, physique and the way he normally finishes. Now it could be he actually needs the extra half mile.

INGLIS DREVER AS GOOD AS EVER

INGLIS DREVER (42) ran as fast as he ever has to take the World Hurdle for a record third time. He's been one of the best staying hurdlers of the past decade and shown himself capable of producing his best in a wide variety of circumstances.

In the short term it's worth bearing in mind that Inglis Drever's one obvious failing is that he doesn't seem able to run to top form at Aintree. He's lost the three times he's run at the Aintree Festival, and I'd bet on that happening again if he runs there in a few weeks time.

In the long term Inglis Drever has clearly got a serious rival for his crown in the form of KASBAH BLISS (42) who ran him to a length here.

It looks like Kasbah Bliss is one of those horses that doesn't produce their best in the darkest, coldest part of the year - November through early February. But he's clearly a very high class horse in the Spring and Autumn and looks the most likely winner of this race next year.

With four to jump HARDY EUSTACE (20) was in the lead and moving like a winner. But he's shown before that he doesn't stay this far, so it's understandable he faded badly. However he was going to well four out I'll be very interested in his chances if he cuts back to two miles at either Aintree or Punchestown. I'd even seriously consider him over two and a half.

KAZAL (39) ran a big race to take third. And if the ground had been softer he would almost certainly have gone closer as he lacks pace but stays all day. He'll be winning a Grade 1 soon if he gets his ground.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN (38) was tiring in the closing stages, reinforcing my view that he doesn't get three miles in a strongly run race. He looks more of a chaser than a hurdler to me, so I'd like to see him go back over the bigger jumps now. He does seem to need an undulating track to produce his best, and I'll be hoping to see him running two and a half miles at Punchestown.

CAPTAIN CEE BEE MAY BE BETTER THAN HE LOOKED

It's always very hard to tell the true state of the ground at the Cheltenham Festival because there is so much scope for reconfiguring the course you never know what distance they're actually running. This makes race times a poor guide to the ground.

This year a strong headwind on the first day added to the difficulties. If you judge the going by race times it looks like the ground was actually soft. But so many fast ground performers won or ran well on day one and so many soft ground performers didn't I suspect that the official going estimate of good to soft was about right. Actually, judged by the low amount of divots the runners were throwing up I think the ground was probably good to yielding.

In any event CAPTAIN CEE BEE (39) a proven fast ground performer, won the Supreme Novices, wearing down the juvenile BINOCULAR (38) on the run in after that one had looked set to score.

This was a solid rather than a spectacular effort from Captain Cee Bee. But I got the impression from watching him here and in other races that he's actually better tanking along off a strong pace on a flatter track. Having to slow down and speed up here to cope with the undulations didn't suit him too well I think. So I wouldn't be too surprised if Captain Cee Bee bettered this effort at Aintree, especially if the ground is a bit faster.

Captain Cee Bee has a fast ground action. That is, he doesn't pick his feet very far off the ground when he gallops. This is a very efficient way of moving on firm ground but gets a horse bogged down and wastes energy in mud. His trainer has carefully avoided running him on soft ground over jumps for this reason, pulling him out of two would be prep races on account of the going.

Basically whenever Captain Cee Bee has had his ground and been fit he's won. The exception was a maiden race on the flat where he simply didn't have the acceleration to extricate himself from a pocket for an agonizing three furlongs. His jockey had to sit there and suffer while the winner made his move. And when he finally did get clear his mount again lacked the acceleration to close the gap the winner had opened and only ran second despite being full of run.

Being full of run is how Captain Cee Bee always appears. However fast his rivals are traveling, whether it's at the beginning or the end of the race, he's just tanking along, moving powerfully. He's a likeable horse who will surely continue to do well on fast ground whether he stays over hurdles or goes over fences.

I rather suspect that Binocular would have held on if there hadn't been such a strong headwind or the ground had been a bit quicker. He has a serious turn of foot that's almost certainly best employed on faster going.

CORK ALL STAR (31) looked sure to take a big hand in the finish as he led narrowly two out, moving rather well. But he tired up the hill. It's now beginning to look like he is one of those horses that is best when fresh. His wins and best runs have all been on his first two starts of the season or with a break longer than six weeks thereafter. The three times he's not been this fresh have been when he's run his three worst races.

HUGE RUN BY TIDAL BAY

TIDAL BAY (43) put up a tremendous performance to win a very strongly run Arkle by a wide margin from that ultra-game mare KRUGUYROVA (37). He kept on going strongly when everything else tired thanks to the gallop the mare had set.

You have to wonder whether Tidal Bay would be as effective over two miles on a less testing track without a front runner like Kruguyrova to make the race such a stamina test. Last time out he was stretched into jumping errors in a much slower run two mile race on an easier track when the race developed into a sprint finish. So long term Tidal Bay is surely going to do better stepped back up to two and a half miles. And I have little doubt that he'll get three.

Make no mistake, Tidal Bay is a very serious horse indeed. He has never finished out of the first two. And with better racing luck would probably have won twelve of his thirteen starts to date. Right now I wouldn't fancy betting anything against him.

Kruguyrova tried her usual trick of slowing the pace down and then speeding it up on the far side. But her rivals were pushing her harder than usual so she didn't get much respite. And she looked in trouble when she jumped slow at the seventh and lost the lead. But she was soon heading them all off again and kicked into a clear lead as they got to the top of the hill and began the descent to two out. She was soon caught and was only fourth rounding the home turn. When she jumped left at the last and had to swerve to avoid the running rail the game looked to be up. But she'd run the finish out of everything but the winner and so was able to rally past the eventual third and fourth NOLAND (36) and THYNE AGAIN (36).

Kruguyrova is an admirable mare who is clearly a tough nut to crack over two miles. The way she can produce that spurt after halfway after setting a strong pace and then rally again late makes her hard to beat over the minimum distance.

Noland went well for a long way but tired rather badly up the final climb. I suspect he was feeling the effect of those two fast races he'd run back to back and now needs a rest. If he were mine I'd forget about Aintree or Punchestown and put him away till next term.

Thyne Again moved really well for a long way as well but tired late just like Noland. His physique and record suggests he wants softer ground and a longer distance, preferably both. Chasing a trailblazer like Kruguyrova over two miles is not his game.

MAHOGANY BLAZE (33) ran better than I expected him to on such a stiff galloping track to take fifth. I've thought for a long time he'd be a great bet at Aintree as he's clearly better on less testing tracks. This run did nothing to alter that view.

WHAT'S GOING TO STOP KATCHIT WINNING A SECOND CHAMPION?

It takes a very good five year old to win the Champion Hurdle. And clearly KATCHIT (35) is a very good five year old. He won a very strongly run renewal of this year's race and it would take a brave person to say he won't win the race again next year. The last three five year olds to run the Champion Hurdle all went on to repeat their wins the next season.

Clearly Katchit is best when towed along at the strong pace normally generated by a big field. He's now won all seven times he's run in hurdle races with more than eight runners. His only three losses over timber have all been in small fields.

Here OSANA (35) obliged Katchit by setting a very strong early pace. To be fair to his jockey, it's almost impossible to judge what pace you're going when you're initially being assisted by a strong tailwind and then have to run back home into the face of a fierce headwind. And it certainly didn't look like Osana was going quick as he loped along comfortably in a clear early lead. But the clock shows he reached the fifth hurdle a full second sooner than they did in the Supreme Novices. And they only got there that as soon as they did in the Supreme Novices because Norther Bay refused to settle and set much too fast a pace for the first three flights.

Norther Bay had to be pulled up after his pacemaking efforts. But Osana actually rallied in the closing stages to give Katchit a real hard time of things as they approached the line.

When a front runner goes off to quick as Osana did here the pace basically collapses, causing the final time to be slower than it otherwise would have been. This is the reason the Champion Hurdle ended up being run almost two seconds slower than the Supreme Novices. But I guarantee if the two races had been run together Katchit and Osana would have fought out the finish with Captain Cee Bee doing no better than finish several lengths back in third or fourth.

It seems to me that Osana is always going to be vulnerable in the Champion Hurdle as there's invariably something that will force him to go too fast in the lead. So, unless he can be made to show the same level of form when held up, I think he's likely to do best in smaller fields where he can dominate at a slower pace than he had to set here.

CAPTAIN CEE BEE MAY BE BETTER THAN HE LOOKED

It's always very hard to tell the true state of the ground at the Cheltenham Festival because there is so much scope for reconfiguring the course you never know what distance they're actually running. This makes race times a poor guide to the ground.

This year a strong headwind on the first day added to the difficulties. If you judge the going by race times it looks like the ground was actually soft. But so many fast ground performers won or ran well on day one and so many soft ground performers didn't I suspect that the official going estimate of good to soft was about right. Actually, judged by the low amount of divots the runners were throwing up I think the ground was probably good to yielding.

In any event CAPTAIN CEE BEE (39) a proven fast ground performer, won the Supreme Novices, wearing down the juvenile BINOCULAR (38) on the run in after that one had looked set to score.

This was a solid rather than a spectacular effort from Captain Cee Bee. But I got the impression from watching him here and in other races that he's actually better tanking along off a strong pace on a flatter track. Having to slow down and speed up here to cope with the undulations didn't suit him too well I think. So I wouldn't be too surprised if Captain Cee Bee bettered this effort at Aintree, especially if the ground is a bit faster.

Captain Cee Bee has a fast ground action. That is, he doesn't pick his feet very far off the ground when he gallops. This is a very efficient way of moving on firm ground but gets a horse bogged down and wastes energy in mud. His trainer has carefully avoided running him on soft ground over jumps for this reason, pulling him out of two would be prep races on account of the going.

Basically whenever Captain Cee Bee has had his ground and been fit he's won. The exception was a maiden race on the flat where he simply didn't have the acceleration to extricate himself from a pocket for an agonizing three furlongs. His jockey had to sit there and suffer while the winner made his move. And when he finally did get clear his mount again lacked the acceleration to close the gap the winner had opened and only ran second despite being full of run.

Being full of run is how Captain Cee Bee always appears. However fast his rivals are traveling, whether it's at the beginning or the end of the race, he's just tanking along, moving powerfully. He's a likeable horse who will surely continue to do well on fast ground whether he stays over hurdles or goes over fences.

I rather suspect that Binocular would have held on if there hadn't been such a strong headwind or the ground had been a bit quicker. He has a serious turn of foot that's almost certainly best employed on faster going.

CORK ALL STAR (31) looked sure to take a big hand in the finish as he led narrowly two out, moving rather well. But he tired up the hill. It's now beginning to look like he is one of those horses that is best when fresh. His wins and best runs have all been on his first two starts of the season or with a break longer than six weeks thereafter. The three times he's not been this fresh have been when he's run his three worst races.

TAKEROC IS SMART

TAKEROC (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win a two mile novice chase on his UK debut at Sandown. Always moving best in a strongly run race, he kept going strongly as all his rivals tired up the straight.

The early pace was a searching one. They reached the last of the Railway fences 1.9 seconds ahead of the runners in the other two mile chase on the card. And the early pace was so strong in the other race that they tired badly to run 1m 24.5 seconds from the last Railway fence to the finish. Basically the pace collapsed. Not so with Takeroc. He came home from the last Railway fence in just 1m 19.9 seconds.

Takeroc is a bit below average size and this may explain why he hesitated and hit the ninth fence when the leader jumped across him. However that was his only mistake of the entire contest. He pinged all the other fences, even the tricky downhill fence which they took at a terrific pace.

Takeroc has already won over just half a furlong short of two and a half miles and his dam and her three best foals other than him all produced their best performances over 2m 3f or more. So I suspect that Takeroc is going to prove ideally suited by around two and a half miles. Indeed it's probably his stamina that helped him keep on so strongly at the end of such a fast run two miles here.

So far Takeroc has won by five lengths or more all three times he's run over fences. He is undoubtedly one of the best novice chasers. The thing to bear in mind though is that this is a vintage season for novice chasers, especially over two and two and a half miles and particularly in Ireland. If he were mine therefore I'd be inclined to avoid a trip to the Punchestown Festival and seriously consider taking on experienced rather than novice chasers at Aintree.

In any event, whatever happens with Takeroc the rest of this season, he's clearly established himself as a horse to be reckoned with in the top chases over two and two and a half miles with this run.

ASHKAZAR STEALS IT FROM THE FRONT AGAIN

ASHKAZAR (36) won a really slow run seven runner race at Sandown last month by setting a really slow pace and then using his flat race speed to outpace his rivals in a sprint from two out. I predicted at the time that he probably wouldn't be able to get away with this in a bigger field. But I was wrong. There were 22 runners in the Imperial Cup over the same course and distance, and his rivals all allowed Ashkazar top dictate a crawl of a pace.

Once more Ashazar was able to display his serious turn of foot from two out, and he ended up winning the race while still full of running.

When I analyze Ashkazar's record it looks clear that he is best ridden from the front in slow run races. He's won four times out of five in such circumstances with his sole loss being a photo finish second to the high class Royal And Regal. In three slow run races where he's been held up Royal And Regal has finished out of the first three every time. So far he's only run in two strongly run races. The first was when he got beat in a maiden by. The second was when he got beat nearly ten lengths into fourth by Franchoek.

Ashkazar has been lucky to hit so many slow run races, and has done so primarily because he's run on the flat in France and in novice hurdles where slow run races are common. From now on though things are going to get tougher for him because his remaining starts this year are likely to be in big races where a slow pace is rare, even in novice company.

Maybe Ashkazar will get away with setting a slow pace once more in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and claim the big bonus for winning at the Festival and in the Imperial Cup. But after sitting behind and watching him sprint home two times in a row it's hard to believe the jockeys on his rivals will allow that to happen.

CLOUDY LANE HAS TOO MUCH SPEED TO STAY THE NATIONAL TRIP

After his last run I reversed my previous position on CLOUDY LANE (38) and decided that he could after all stay long distances because he kept going when everything else tired badly due to a ferocious early pace. Now I'm afraid I'm going to go back to my previous stance and say Cloudy Lane just won't last the Grand National distance.

What prompts this switcheroo is the way Cloudy Lane won the Grimthorpe Chase over three and a quarter miles at Doncaster last Saturday. Sectional times show that it was an oddly run contest. The first ten furlongs were run at a moderate pace followed by a very strong pace for the last two miles. In fact Cloudy Lane ran the last two miles of the Grimthorpe 2.1 seconds quicker than the winner of the two mile chase on the same card. That race, won by Ela Re, was run at a searching end to end gallop. But Cloudy Lane would have won it by around eight lengths. And he did so while equaling his best ever speed rating here.

Cloudy Lane was very comfortable going the fast pace over the last two miles. He just showed way too much pace for me to believe he can truly stay marathon distances.

Now I must return to those two clunkers that Cloudy Lane has run when he's tried marathon trips before. And the conclusion I have to reach in view of the pace he showed at Doncaster is that he just doesn't stay that far.

I'm now confident that Cloudy Lane's previous win was misleading. He beat a tiny field of horses, none of which ran up to their best. I shouldn't have drawn any strong conclusions from that whatsoever. This race showed that Cloudy Lane is a really pacey sort that could cut back to two miles and show exactly the same level of form. No Grand National winner could do that, so I must conclude that Cloudy Lane is no Grand National winner.

The horse that ran like a real stayer in the race was runner up UNGARO (36). He pulled against the slow early pace but was then flat to the boards once the gallop picked up over the last two miles. He had to be scribbed along from a long way out but up the homestraight his stamina gradually kicked in and he stayed on to take second on the run in.

It's probably a year too early for Ungaro to be winning the Grand National. But he looks to have a serious shot of becoming the first French bred winner of the Aintree marathon in a century, if not this year then next. Meanwhile I see him as a very interesting contender for the Betfred Gold Cup or the Irish National. As I've mentioned before, it looks clear that Ungaro needs a strong early gallop to produce his best. He didn't get it here but it's the norm in the two final big staying chases of the season.

NACARAT SHOULD GO FOR TOPHAM

NATAL (39) clocked a smart time when winning the valuable Connaught Gold Cup at Newbury. His trainer Paul Nicholls knows the horse cannot handle undulating tracks like Cheltenham. He's said before that the horse needs a dead flat track to produce his best, and Natal's performance bears him out.

Actually the horse I fancy most for the Topham, as I've mentioned before, is the runner up NACARAT (38).

Nacarat is from a family of Cross Country chasers and has a safety-first style of jumping that's ideally suited to Aintree's National course. He's a bit narrow, so it's not surprising he's best fresh. Prior to this run he'd won the last four times he'd come into a race off a break of five weeks or more and lost all six times he hadn't. He ran with real determination here but couldn't quite contain a winner who is solid Grade 2 class.

PETITJEAN IS SMART GOING RIGHT-HANDED

If you've ever watched Racing Demon run then you know how PETITJEAN (36) looked when winning at Ludlow last week. His jockey kept him to the rails in last place almost all the way round, aiming him right at the wing of the fence every time but one. Like Racing Demon he jumped squiff and hit a few but never lost serious ground. Clearly his jockey knew that, like Racing Demon, Petitjean would jump violently to the right if he gave him half a chance.

Things went to plan until five fences out where the front two accelerated smartly and began a long sprint for home that only petered out between the last two. To catch up to them Petitjean had to angle out past the horse that was running fourth approaching the third last jump. This left him facing the fence in the middle rather than on the rail. Sure enough he jumped violently right. But his jockey angled him towards the rail for the last two. And Petitjean was so full of run he quickly picked up the leaders and went clear to win comfortably. On the run in he ran around, first going left then right when his jockey corrected him.

It's pretty obvious that Petitjean is a tricky ride. And I'm not sure I'd be keen on his chances in a big field because it would be harder for him to stick to the rail. The size limit for him and Racing Demon would ideally be eight runners I think. Both horses can probably cope with nine or maybe ten if a couple of rivals exit the race early or get themselves tailed off.

Petitjean also needs to be fresh. His wins have all come on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. His trainer is aware of this and plans to bring Petitjean back in around six weeks, no doubt on a right-handed track.

Petitjean has earned a slightly bigger speed rating from me before and would no doubt have done so here if he hadn't been forced off the rail and gone walkabout in the closing stages. He was still full of run at the finish and would be capable of winning a valuable chase in a small field when fresh and going right-handed. So far he's won all three times he's run in these circumstances.

TOPLESS A SOLID CANDIDATE FOR NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

In flat racing I've long been amazed at the incredibly narrow range of distances run in America. There are a few short races for two year olds and a handful of longer contests, mostly Graded stakes. But 98% of all races for older horses are run at distances ranging from six to nine furlongs.

France provides an example of something similar when it comes to jump racing. There are a few short races for juveniles and a small number of Graded races over longer. But 98% of all races for older horses are run over trips ranging from two miles and a furlong to two miles six furlongs.

The problem with the American and French approaches is that it makes it very hard indeed to figure out whether a horse can stay the longer distances run in Britain and Ireland. Occasionally they just have to produce a horse that is an out and out marathon runner which is made to look slow by the lack of opportunities to run over a suitable distance.

A case in point is IRIS DE BALME (37) who won the first running of the Kent National at Folkestone last week over three miles and seven furlongs.

In a 26 race French career dating back to 2003 Irish De Balme never had the chance to run three miles or more. He's shown better form since being stepped up to such a distance in a handful of starts since being imported to Britain. But last week, when trying a marathon distance for the first time, he showed by far his best form ever to win in pattern class time.

Iris De Balme jumped really well and was so full of running three out that he was actually able to press the leader to quicken up markedly and then kick on himself at a remarkably strong pace for the end of such a long contest. In fact they come home from three out in 1 minute 5.3 seconds compared with the 1 minute 7.7 seconds they took in the previous chase which was run over just two miles.

Iris De Balme really pinged the last two fences and won this full of running despite the fact that the runner up TOPLESS (37) was gaining on him in the closing stages. I got the impression he could have pulled out more if Topless had got to him.

This was the first win in 32 career starts for Iris De Balme. But it won't be the last if my speed ratings are any guide. They indicate that he's at least a Listed class performer over extreme distances. I wouldn't dream of opposing him in the Devon National over a similar distance on March 4th. After that I'll have my eye on him as a solid candidate for either the Irish National or Betfred Gold Cup.

Topless has a big race target coming up too because she's entered in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. She's a solid candidate for that race on this showing.

Here Topless got a bit outpaced when the gallop picked up but was steadily wearing away at Iris De Balme's lead all the way up the homestraight. She should therefore appreciate the uphill finish at Cheltenham. And she ought to like the faster ground too. This race was run on ground just slightly on the yielding side of good judged by race times and it does seem her trainer is right in suggesting she's best on a quicker surface. Previously she'd never had the chance to run a marathon distance on relatively fast ground. Here she showed that she's capable of winning a decent race given these conditions.

OH CRICK GETS INTERESTING FOR AINTREE

OH CRICK (37) won an unusually strong handicap hurdle at Hereford in a time that makes him look a serious player for the big two mile novice hurdle at Aintree. The impressive thing about his win was the strong pace he achieved it off. They got to the fourth jump 5.6 seconds and 7.2 seconds sooner than in the other two hurdle races over the trip on the card but Oh Crick managed to come home a tenth of a second quicker up the very short run-in than either of them

Oh Crick had to be shaken up to lengthen and put away the pursuing SILMI (36) on the run in. But once he'd edged clear he was actually traveling rather smoothly and his jockey was able to stop riding him for the final 40 or 50 yards. All his wins have been by narrow margins and I suspect he's one of those horses that will only ever do just enough to win.

This was the fourth win in a row for Oh Crick and it marks him out as a very decent hurdler. He's a tall, good-bodied chasing sort who will obviously jump a fence in time. He's got a pretty flat stride so I suspect he'll produce his best form on good ground despite that one win on soft.

Silmi had, strangely enough, run far back in France in a Grade 1 on his previous start in a race where Oh Crick's half brother Othermix had ran second. His best previous run came over the longest trip he's tried in Britain, and I think he was helped by the strong early pace here which made it a real test of stamina. This being so he does shape up as rather an interesting player for the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival where the big field should ensure a strong pace and where the track is obviously a lot stiffer than at Hereford. In the long run Silmi will no doubt appreciate a step up to two and a half miles. He also has the build to jump a fence as well. I suspect he's going to prefer a faster surface like this too as his stride does appear rather low, he ran that clunker on heavy ground in France and his stable deliberately laid him off during the Winter to save him for a Spring campaign.