SAINT ARCH IS GROUP CLASS

SAINT ARCH (38) clocked a time that would be good for a Guineas Trial when winning a good mile handicap for three year olds at Kempton. He disputed the lead at a decent clip and just kept going very strongly indeed. In the final furlong he was really motoring away from his rivals in a manner that suggests a further step up to ten furlongs will be beneficial.

Saint Arch is a good-bodied, rangy sort that's rather reminiscent of his sire, Arch. I note with interest that he's entered in a Listed race at Lingfield on Saturday where I'd bet on him stretching his unbeaten record to four starts.

Runner-up ROYAL EXECUTIONER (35) is yet another horse to have been improved by David Simcock. He won his first start for his new yard and followed up with an even better performance here. He was held up, tried to make a run at the winner in the straight but ended up being run ragged by his rival, his stride shortening inside the last furlong.

Royal Executioner is a narrow, rather light-framed sort with a fast ground action. So I'd be inclined to think he'll prove best in fields smaller than twelve on fast ground and that he may well be bests fresh. Still, he's better than the average three year bold handicapper by some margin and should be able to win within his next couple of starts.

EXPRESSO STAR RUNS A GROUP 2 TIME

I don't know why the Lincoln handicap has changed so much in recent years. But it has.

From 1988 to 2005 most of the winners were Listed class at best. Many had a lot of previous runs to their name with nothing special in the way of last time out form. And none showed winning form over longer trips.

Things have been changed over the last decade. The winners have been faster, more lightly raced, in better form and shown more stamina.

Eight of the last ten Lincoln winners had fifteen or fewer previous starts and earned a Racing Post rating of at least 95 last time out. And the last four all previously scored over ten furlongs. This last stat is particularly striking because none of the sixteen previous winners had scored beyond a mile.

This year the only lightly raced ten furlong winner in the Lincoln with good last time out form was EXPRESSO STAR (40). And he duly won.

Expresso Star was always up with the leaders and moving well. He kicked on two furlongs out and continued to run strongly all the way to the line.

It pays to be cautious about the prospects of big handicap winners that run a fast time. They tend to get too much to win with in future handicaps. And if they switch to pattern company they may not like the much slower early pace experienced in such contests. That said, Expresso Star is a good-bodied, classy looking sort that's clearly built for ten furlongs and might well stay twelve. Over longer trips I think he'll be able to score in Group 2 or 3 company sometime this season. I rather suspect that this big run on fast ground was a one-off that was aided by a searching end to end gallop. In future I'd bet on him reverting to being a softer ground performer. On quicker going he might easily get done for a turn of foot, especially if he's stepped up to pattern company. Besides he's rather a top heavy horse that you wouldn't want to risk on fast ground too often.

STAR ROVER IS A VERY SPEEDY TWO YEAR OLD

The Brocklesby winner didn't clock a very good time and didn't come home that strongly either. But I think we saw a pattern class two year old the same day at Kempton when STAR ROVER (35) won in very good style at Kempton.

Star Rover is a close-coupled, muscular, short necked, mature sort that's only a bit bigger than medium-sized. Basically he built for speed, speed, speed. And he clearly has just the one way of running as he wears a bar bit and bounced out of the stalls to make all the running.

As is the case in most early season two year old races, the field took a couple of furlongs to get themselves organised. But by then Star Rover was making the best of his way home in front. He covered the last three furlongs a good deal quicker than smart older sprinters managed in a good Conditions race on the same card and was just running away from his rivals in the last furlong.

Even the bar bit wasn't enough to help Star Rover's jockey prevent him from drifting left all the way across the track up the straight. But the horse was moving so strongly he still kept increasing his lead quite rapidly even though he was running at an angle away from his rivals.

This was a Group 3 class performance on my ratings and marks Star Rover out as a tough horse to beat in the immediate future. There aren't many races these days for two year old winners this early in the season. But I wouldn't want to oppose Star Rover in any of them as long as he gets a fast surface and isn't asked to run beyond five furlongs. Then again he might just last the six around the steeply downhill course at Epsom for the Woodcote Stakes. And the left-handed turn there might well suit him perfectly seeing how he hung so badly left here. The other obvious target would be the Lily Agnes Stakes at Chester's May meeting, which is also run around a tight left hand turn.

I'd bet on runner up OUT THE RING (29) franking the form of this race with a win in the near future. He's a classier, better put together sort than the winner that looks built to get six furlongs. He showed good early speed to chase Star Rover throughout and was unlucky to come up against a Group class horse on his racecourse debut.

NASHMIAH CAN DO EVEN BETTER

The slow early pace that's so often a feature of Polytrack races is frustrating to compilers of speed ratings like me. I've developed what seems to be a pretty reliable formula to take account of sectional times. But that still leaves imponderables like the Listed Spring Cup won by the filly NASHMIAH (37) last week.

On paper this run was a couple of lengths shy of Guineas class. But Nashmiah was really only starting to run as they crossed the line and clearly had plenty more to give. This is because the race didn't begin properly until two and a half furlongs out. Before that the field had gone a pace better suited to ten furlongs than the seven they were running over.

Nashmiah fairly bounded clear in the closing stages, clocking just 22.5 seconds for the final quarter mile. That's 0.8 seconds quicker than the Listed class handicapper Abbondanza managed in a more truly run race later on the card.

Nashmiah is a good-bodied, muscular, mature filly that looks more like a colt. I note with interest that she's entered in the French 1000 Guineas. That race is often won by the horse with the best turn of foot. So I'd be more interested in her prospects there than at Newmarket or the Curragh.

SCINTILLO BACK TO BEST

It's not often that as horse wins a Group 1 race and then proceeds to lose ten in a row. But that was the case with this year's Winter Derby winner SCINTILLO (40). He took the Group 1 Gran Criterium as a two year old but blanked all through last season.

I know that a lot of people still knock Italian form despite the success of ex-Italian runners like Falbrav, Electrocutionist and Rakti in top races elsewhere. But I can't see how you could knock the form of the Gran Criterium that Scintillo won. The second, third and fourth were seriously smart horses. In fact the runner up, Gladiatorus, has just broken the seven and a half and eight furlong records at Nad Al Sheba and is as short as 10-1 for the world's most valuable turf race this Saturday, the Dubai Duty Free.

My theory is that Scintillo just didn't grow enough from two to three. He's still only a medium-sized horse. But he's clearly back to his best judged by his run in the Winter Derby.

Always prominent off the very slow early pace, Scintillo had no problems joining in when the sprint for home began half a mile from the finish - even though they covered the last four furlongs in just 45.35 seconds by my estimates, half a second quicker than in the good 7f handicap on the same card.

Scintillo went to win his race soon after entering the straight but approaching the furlong pole looked set to be swamped for finishing speed when the smart sprinter-miler PREMIO LOCO (40) surged alongside. But he managed to accelerate again with that rival and narrowly win the dash to the line.

It takes a high class horse to make three big moves in a race as Scintillo did here to join in the sprint for home, surge to the lead and then rally when challenged. So I would not be at all surprised to see him prove competitive in Group 1 races once more. The race I'd love to see him go for is the Breeders' Cup Marathon at the end of the season. Right now I'm very interested in his chances in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in a few weeks.

I opposed Premio Loco with some confidence on the grounds that he would not stay. But it turns out he didn't have to thanks to the slow early pace. I imagine he'll now be cut back to seven furlongs and a mile again. He's certainly fast enough to win decent Group races over those sort of trips.

The slow early pace and sprint finish didn't seem to suit third placed BRONZE CANNON (39). He had to be ridden along as soon as the pace picked up half a mile out and steadily lost ground. He then had to swing widest of all to get a clear run entering the straight, by which time he was only ninth. From there he finished best of all to pass a whole bunch of rivals and take third.

Bronze Cannon has won both times he's run on a fast turf surface over ten furlongs. He clocked a good Group class time when beating Derby fourth Doctor Fremantle in such conditions on his seasonal debut last year. When he goes back to turf I'd bet on him showing the same sort of form again. His obvious immediate target would be the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown, often a stepping stone to Group 1 success later on.

Another horse that looks likely to prefer the stronger early pace normally encountered on turf is fifth placed WITHOUT A PRAYER (37). He had an impossible task in trying to come from far back into an accelerating pace and would have needed to run as fast as an Abbaye winner to get up.

Without A Prayer is built like a national hunt store horse but clearly doesn't act on the soft ground that prevails during the Winter. He clearly didn't handle dirt the one time he was asked to run on it either. But he has shown nothing but very smart form on fast turf or the new generation of synthetic surfaces. One of these is the oiled Fibresand surface at Deauville which rides very much like Polytrack rather then the older Fibresand surface in use at Southwell (which produces massively more kickback).

Without A Prayer won a Listed race on Deauville's oiled Fibresand surface in December in very good style. He was held up far off the searching early pace and was still eight lengths back in ninth spot with two furlongs to run. But he simply bounded towards the leaders from there, showing a big, long, flowing stride as he surged down the outside, picked up the leaders and quickly surged clear in the last fifty yards. The horse that chased him home was a useful Group 3 winner trained by Fabre that he regards highly. And the third had previously run a close third to two very smart fillies in a hot renewal of the Prix de Diane (French Oaks).

I see Without A Prayer winning good Group races on fast turf this season.

CHAPOTURGEON IS A SERIOUSLY GOOD CHASER

I thought I'd spotted a fabulous bet in the Jewson in the rank outsider CRESCENT ISLAND (37) and felt a rather smug when he kicked two lengths clear after three out. But then the grey form of CHAPOTURGEON (41) quickly blew by him and proceeded to sprint the rest of the way home, jumping the last exuberantly because he was so full of run.

Chapoturgeon ended up clocking a seriously fast time. He actually ran 1.9 seconds quicker than the winner of the Ryanair Chase over the same course and distance that day. And this wasn't due to some quirk of pace. The field in the Ryanair reached the halfway point just a tenth of a second slower than they did in the Jewson. The difference in time resulted entirely from the remarkable finishing pace that Chapoturgeon showed. He powered clear in the closing stages as if he'd just jumped into the race.

I'm now convinced that Chapoturgeon is going to be a serious force in big two and a half mile chases from now on. He's a rather light-framed sort, so I suspect trainer Paul Nicholls made a smart move by resting him before this race.

This was the first time Chapoturgeon had the chance to run what is clearly the right distance. So I'm wary of reading too much into his previous form. All I can say is that he's awfully fast over this sort of distance and will merit respect in any race in future.

The reason I fancied Crescent Island is that he had won three of the four times he'd run in fields of twelve or more and lost all nine times he'd run in races with fewer runners. What turned most people off him I dare say is that he'd run out twice. But the two times he ran out were in smaller fields. It looks clear he needs the cover that a big field like this one provides. For this reason I see him as a decent proposition for future handicaps with big fields over this sort of distance.

ISN'T THAT LUCKY (38) had blown home by sixteen lengths when stepped up to a longer trip for the first time on his previous start and produced his best lifetime effort here. It looks like two miles was too short for him.

KAUTO STAR AS GOOD AS EVER

I'm not going to doubt KAUTO STAR (45) again following his demolition job of a smart field in the Gold Cup. He clocked a fantastically fast time, meriting the same huge speed rating he earned from me when running away with the King George and the Ascot Chase last year.

I've suggested before that Kauto Star might not be as good as he was. But this run proved he's as good as ever. Clearly those two defeats last year stemmed purely from over-racing. His connections now know he must be kept fresh and surely won't risk him in future when he isn't.

Kauto Star has now earned the three biggest speed ratings I've given a jumper in the last decade, so I'm going to be very wary about knocking him again in future.

DENMAN (41) could not go with Kauto Star in the closing stages. But he improved markedly on his comeback run. So, while one has to be cautious about any ageing horse that develops a heart condition, there has to be a real chance that Denman has another Grade 1 win in him.

EXOTIC DANCER (40) just doesn't seem to have what it takes to get by Kauto Star but ran yet another big race to finish third. Seeing that he made a few mistakes here, it's surprising his connections suggested afterwards that he might attempt to become the first French bred winner of the Grand National in over a century. They'll surely have a rethink.

The ground was just fast enough for NEPTUNES COLLONGES (38). But he's never produced his best at Cheltenham yet. So it was no big shock to see him tire into a fairly distant fourth. This makes six losses in six tries at Cheltenham for this admirable grey who has shown such smart form elsewhere.

MY WILL (38) ran a good Grand National trial by chugging on late to take fifth. He's run nothing but good races in marathon events and looks to have a better shot of overcoming the dreadful run of French bred chasers in the National than Exotic Dancer.

NOT A GREAT CHAMPION HURDLE BUT ...

This year's Champion Hurdle was not a great renewal. The winner PUNJABI (40) only earned a Grade 2 class speed rating from me. And I confess that I was astonished he was able to score in such a big field (23 runners).

Punjabi did win a novice hurdle and a couple of class 6 contests on the flat in big fields. But he'd lost ten times out of ten in fields of eleven or more in better company. If he'd won instead of falling at Kempton over Christmas it would have been his eighth success in nine tries on turf in fields of ten or less.

Here Punjabi kept out of trouble by racing just behind the trio of front runners that were setting a good pace in a strung out field. He was clearly going best turning in, closed to lead at the last and ground out a hard fought win on the run in as the principals all slowed down to finish tired.

This was Punjabi’s third Grade 1 win. But he doesn't look that good of a horse to me. He lacks a big finishing kick and will surely be vulnerable to horses with a better turn of foot in future top Conditions hurdles.

CELESTIAL HALO (40) only went under by a neck, finishing a lot closer than the two he disputed the lead with early at a strong pace, Hardy Eustace and Osana. His terrific stamina nearly won him the race.

Celestial Halo is a tall, good-bodied, strong sort that looks built for three miles rather than two. I suspect that the slowish surface and strong pace (due partly to the huge field) pulled him into the race and that he wouldn't have gone so close in a normal Champion Hurdle. I know his connections aim on coming back for the race next year, but I'd be surprised if his obvious stamina didn't persuade them to step him up in trip before then.

BINOCULAR (40) missed work due to the snow according to trainer Nicky Henderson and the fact that he sweated up beforehand confirms this (horses sweat more when they're unfit). But I suspect it was the slowness of the ground that beat him more than anything. The time and the going stick both indicated yielding ground, and horses with a brilliant turn of foot like Binocular invariably have their finishing speed blunted by a slow surface.

Binocular deserves to be favourite for next year's Champion Hurdle on this showing and will be hard to beat in any race where he gets good ground.

The going was almost certainly a bit too slow for CRACK AWAY JACK (39) who did well to finish a close fifth after meeting traffic problems. He has the build for chasing and does look a terrific prospect for next year's Arkle. Though it's worth bearing in mind that he needs fast ground and must be fresh. This being so I imagine he's going to throw in one or two bad runs before he runs in the big race.

MUIRHEAD (37) ran a bit below his best in fifth, once more raising the question of whether he handles the steep gradients of Cheltenham.

KATCHIT (37) rallied up the hill after losing his position when the race began in earnest on the run to three out. This keeps on happening to him and it's beginning to look more likely than not that he's lost his speed as he's matured and now needs to step up to two and a half miles plus.

SNAP TIE (33) didn't get the fast ground he needs, so did well to finish eighth in the huge field. But the absolute stand out run of those which finished unplaced was put up by JERED (32).

Trainer Noel Meade warned beforehand that the going was against Jered. There was also a big concern about how well he'd cope with such a large field. Horses that come from as far back as he does always risk running into traffic problems in big fields.

Sure enough Jered did hit traffic problems. He coped with them well enough until the third last where Cybergenic fell right in front of him. He had to swerve violently to avoid the prone horse and lost almost all his momentum by doing so. This left him with only two horses behind him and so far back that I though his jockey was going to pull him up.

Jered was 3.7 seconds behind the leader when he had to swerve, 4.8 seconds back at the next jump and so far back at the last he was out of the very wide picture (my best guess is he was about six seconds or 25 lengths behind at this point). Finally though Jered managed to regain his momentum and he fairly powered up the hill, gaining eight or ten lengths in the final 200 yards or so.

Of course we've seen this sort of thing from Jered before. As, I've said, I can't recall ever seeing a hurdler with a better finishing kick. However it now does appear that he needs faster ground and a smaller field to be at his best. When he meets these conditions I wouldn't dream of opposing him. I reckon he could even beat the same owner's Binocular in a field smaller than twelve on good or faster ground.

YES, QUEVEGA IS WORTH A SHOT AT THE CHAMPION HURDLE

QUEVEGA (39) only ran a bit faster than her previous best when taking the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham. But the pace she showed to power away from her rivals and the ease with which she won convinces me she could have run a bit faster. Indeed my ratings indicate she'd have gone very close to winning the Champion Hurdle on the same card.

Quevega is bred for chasing and has the physique to do well at that game. But she's so pacey I imagine her connections will keep her to the smaller jumps. She's one of the best jumping mares we've seen in recent years and looks an exciting prospect, partly because she's so versatile and consistent.

ANOTHER HUGE RUN FROM MASTER MINDED

MASTER MINDED (43) put up another huger performance to take the Champion Chase for the second year in a row. He kept going remarkably strongly following a scorching early pace and is now unbeaten in six tries over two miles. Clearly he's one of the best chasers we've seen over the distance.

WELL CHIEF (40) put up a fantastic run to finish second off a near two year lay off. In fact with four to jump he looked to be going best of all as he swung along on the bridle close to the leaders. But he then lost his position before rallying in the closing stages. He had to swerve to avoid the falling Briareus at the last, losing momentum as a result. But for this he would have finished a bit closer.

Having seen how he lost his place coming down the hill I am now going to be wary of supporting Well Chief at Cheltenham, especially on faster ground, despite his fine record at the course. There has to be a suspicion that this brilliant but injury prone horse was feeling his legs coming down the hill and that's why he lost ground.

There isn't really a race for Well Chief at Punchestown. But he looks to have a great chance of further big race success at Punchestown or Sandown on this run.

PETIT ROBIN (39) ran another big race. And I suspect he’d have done even better over easier fences. He still tends to hurdle his fences. He got away with this at Newbury where he could simply brush through the top of the jumps. But when he tried that at the fifth jump here he had the stuffing knocked out of him. Another mistake at the last didn't help his cause either.

Like most of the top two mile chasers, it looks like Petit Robin needs to be fresh. So I don't think it would be a great idea to bring him back for Aintree where the very stiff fences wouldn't suit him anyway. The stiff fences at Punchestown wouldn't he his cup of tea either. So I think his best option will be the big two mile chase at Sandown on the last day of the season.

BRIAREUS (38) ran a big race, being bang there all the way till falling at the last. For a horse that's best on faster ground and in smaller fields this was a great performance.

BIG ZEB fell four out. He was going fine at the time and might well have run close. But clearly he needs to improve his jumping as this is the second time in a row that he's fallen. However my ratings say he's not far off Master Minded over two miles, so wherever he goes I'm going to be interested in his chances. His only loss in four completed hurdle and chase starts over two miles was a second place finish to Sizing Europe who went on to win the Irish Champion Hurdle.

COOLDINE TOUGH TO BEAT WITH CUT IN THE GROUND

COOLDINE (39) ran about as fast as you normally see a novice chaser go when beating subsequent Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer at Leopardstown last month. And he ran just as fast when powering away up the finishing hill to win the RSAA Chase by a big margin. He has now won the last eight times he's run on yielding or softer ground over two and a quarter miles or more.

It's always hard to tell which novice chasers will make the two or three lengths per mile improvement needed to be competitive with Gold Cup horses. But the way Cooldine was able to move and jump so well sticking close to such a strong pace impressed me.

It's still not certain that Cooldine needs cut in the ground as the three clunkers he's run on good going were in Bumpers and hurdles. However, till he's proven he can handle a quicker surface I'm going to be wary of supporting him on anything quicker than yielding over fences.

CARRUTHERS (30) set the searching early pace which set up Cooldine's fast time. It looks like he simply had to run too fast to make the lead in the huge field here, as was the case at last year's Cheltenham Festival. He's clearly a high class front runner that's very hard to beat in smaller fields. But in bigger fields it's clearly much harder for him to dominate at a sustainable pace.

SONG OF SONGS IS VERY SMART

DEEP PURPLE (38) lost for only the second time in eight starts in single figure fields when going under narrowly to the very smart SONG OF SONGS (39) in a red hot novice chase at Sandown. In doing so he almost certainly demonstrated why he met his only other defeat in a small field at Kempton on his previous outing.

Deep Purple is not that big or robust. And this surely explains why he has trouble jumping in a big field. It also explains why he really had to reach for several jumps here and kept slowing up slightly to put himself right at the Railway fences.

On his previous start Deep Purple faced the big black fences at Kempton which have claimed a higher percentage of fallers than those at any other track in Southern England over the last dozen years. He just didn't have a cut at them despite the small field and eventually had to be pulled up.

The other UK chase tracks which claim a high percentage of fallers are Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster and Wetherby. So it's no big surprise he blundered his way around Wetherby to put up his second worst chase performance a few runs back.

At Sandown the fences claim a pretty low percentage of fallers, but the Railway fences in the backstretch are so close together they can cost a hesitant jumper like Deep Purple dearly. In fact he never really lost that much ground at the jumps and put up a spirited effort to repel Song Of Songs from the last. This quickly carried him ten lengths clear of the third who had been almost upsides at the last. But could never get Song Of Songs off the bridle.

I'm not sure exactly where Deep Purple goes from here. The Festivals at Ayr, Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown don't look a good idea as the fences will be too stiff for him. But he can surely be found a decent novice chase over easier fences elsewhere in a small field. Next season it will be a whole lot tougher as he'll face big fields in handicaps and superior opposition on Conditions chases. So if he were mine I'd keep Deep Purple on the go as a novice and try to win as much as possible while he's still eligible for such contests.

Song Of Songs was always coasting in behind and was by no means fully extended to cruise past Deep Purple on the run in as the pair sprinted away from their pursuers to quickly open up a big gap.

Song Of Songs is a big, good bodied, classy sort that has a terrific record on right handed tracks.

In fact, if he hadn't run green in one race and lost narrowly and bumped into one of the top hurdlers, Osana, in another, Song Of Songs would have won the last seven times he's run on a right handed course.

Song Of Songs has looked like a potential pattern winner on the flat and over hurdles. Now it looks like he's found his métier over fences where he'll surely be winning something big sooner rather than later. The obvious place for him to go next just has to be the Punchestown Festival or perhaps Fairyhouse, both right handed tracks of course.

BIG EARED FRAN A GOOD PROSPECT

The final time that BIG EARED FRAN (38) clocked when winning the Grade 3 Novice handicap hurdle at Sandown last Saturday wasn't great. But when I factor in the way the pace picked up in the last half of the race his performance rates as being of equal merit with that of the Imperial Cup winner on the same card.

Seeing how the race developed into a near sprint finish, Big Eared Fran did well to surge through from the back up the straight and win clearly.

Big Eared Fran moves well, so I suspect he prefers the faster surface he met here. Indeed he might well have won all three times he's run on good or faster ground but for tipping when going well in one race. That said, he's a very lightly raced horse, so I wouldn't want to be too dogmatic. All I can say is he's a classy sort that looks sure to win more good races whether he stays over hurdles or switches to fences (which he has the size for).

Runner up BAKBENSCHER (37) stayed on strongly. This is not that surprising. He has strong influences for three miles plus on both sides of his pedigree and has twice been hopelessly outrun in sprint finishes. He appreciated the step up in distance and the stiff uphill finish and would have surely preferred a stronger early pace. Like the winner he has a physique that's intermediate between that of a hurdler and a chaser. So he also looks set to do well over longer trips whatever discipline he pursues in future.

Bakbenscher has run nothing but big races whenever he's had a decent test of stamina. He won all three times he ran on soft ground over shorter trips and showed he doesn't need cut in the ground when he has a stiff track and two and a half miles here.

Third placed WHAT A BUZZ (37) did himself no favours by setting a modest pace to halfway. He's a big, three mile chasing sort that clearly stays very well. When he stepped up the gallop he found it really hard to jump the hurdles at the increased pace. He flattened a couple on the far side and did the same at the last two, losing momentum and ground each time. The fact that he kept going strongly for so long and managed to run third says a lot for his class and stamina.

What A Buzz may well go to Aintree according to his trainer. I'd like to see him aimed at the three mile novice hurdle there and be asked to set a stronger gallop. He's surely going to do well when he finally gets the chance to go the distance he's clearly built for. And when he does so over fences he could turn out to be very good indeed.

BURTON PORT (36) has already won over fences in a point to point and stayed on nicely for fourth after getting into traffic problems on the far side. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, does well with chasing debutantes and will surely get this useful prospect to win first time he runs him in a novice chase next term. My feeling at this stage is that Burton Port is only around Listed class. But he might just improve a bit over the bigger jumps.

Nothing went right for the fifth horse home KEKI BUKU (34). He ran around and pulled hard just off the lead, clearly hating the slow early pace. He kept moving well for a long way and looked booked for a close fourth at the last until What A Buzz flattened that jump, slowed up and caused Keki Buku to ram into his back end. This cost Keki Buku a good deal of momentum.

Keki Buku is a pacey, athletic sort that is clearly very effective over two miles. So far he's run unplaced all three times he's run on a stiff track or over longer trips. But I'm sure he'll stay better as he gains experience. He looks a useful sort to me and very much under-rated on official figures. So I can see him winning a fair handicap hurdle sometime soon.

DISTANCE AND GROUND THE KEY TO NEW LITTLE BRIC

With no places and very little in the way of form to his name in the preceding two years I was not surprised that trainer Paul Nicholls advised the owners of NEW LITTLE BRIC (39) to stay at home before he ran at Newbury last Saturday. I was as amazed as Nicholls when the horse managed to win, jumping nimbly and running strongly all the way to score in fast time.

On looking at his record it now seems pretty obvious why New Little Bric went through his long blank spell. It would seem he can't jump fences out of anything but fast ground and needs distances of less than 2m 5f. He's won six of the seven times he's run over jumps in what now look to be his favoured circumstances.

Runner up THE PACKAGE (36) is a well put together sort that led or disputed the lead all the way. He came back at the winner briefly when headed and ran a good race, jumping well and finishing ahead of the rest of a strong field. He's lightly raced and clearly improving as he learns to settle better. Most likely he'll improve on this before long.

MISTER QUASIMODO (34) got outpaced before staying on far too late to take third. My read of his form is that he is not able to cope with the strong early pace generated in most handicaps and pattern races and does not stay beyond 2m 5f. Toss out his runs in pattern races and handicaps and his form over 2m 5f or less would show eight wins from his other ten starts if he hadn't tipped up with one race won. His other two losses were second place finishes to Grade 1 winners.

If my analysis of Mister Quasimodo is right then he's clearly going to be hard to place. The only way he's going to find unlisted conditions chases to run in is if he ships to Ireland or France or switches to Hunter Chases.

The big flat two mile oval seemed to find STAN (33) out. Previously he'd won all five times he'd run 2m 3f to 2m5f on yielding or faster ground following his first two completed starts. But here he got beaten off after moving well for a long time before rallying late to take fourth.

When a fierce gallop builds up at Newbury quite a few horses are left floundering, so I'm happy to put this run down to the nature of the huge course. Stan showed brilliant form to win two big chases last Spring and will be a major threat if he gets his ground at Cheltenham or one of the other Festivals.

OUZBECK (33) made a big move to improve into third entering the straight and kept on strongly till tiring late. He's only a novice and it's often the case that the first time a novice is taken along at the fierce pace they went here they'll run below their best.

Ouzbeck's preference for good or faster ground is obvious. If he hadn't jumped right when losing his second hurdles start by just half a length he would have won the previous eight times he'd completed the course on good or faster going. He's run poorly all five times he's run on anything softer. He impressed me with the way he ran here and I'll be looking for him to win another decent chase sooner rather than later when he gets his ground.

STARZAAN (26) made a big move at roughly the same time as Ouzbeck. But it looks likely that he blew up through lack of fitness in the closing stages. His trainer said before the race "It's 10 months since he last ran and it's been hard work getting him fit given the weather we've had."

Starzaan has a seriously good record on relatively easy tracks at distances longer than 2m 1f and shorter than 2m 6f. Prior to this defeat his only loss in six tries in these circumstances was a Grade 1 where he got beat just four and a quarter lengths. It could be that he'll need one more run to get fully fit. But I'll certainly be very interested in his chances in the near future.

TOO FORWARD (28) was sensibly steered wide of the other runners early on in the race.

He's a quirky horse. You just can't touch his mouth during a race and this makes him hard to manouver in a crowd. Soft ground tends to spread the runners out in a race enough to ensure he runs well in small fields. In fact he's now won four of the five times he's run in fields of ten or less on what I rate yielding or softer ground. His sole loss was a good second off a two year lay off when he ran all over the place - presumably because Tony McCoy was driving him harder than he likes.

Here Too Forward lost for the 22nd time in 22 tries in fields bigger than ten. But he kept on well in the unfavourable conditions. If he can be found some cut in the ground and a smallish field in the near future he'll be interesting.

HOBBS HILL (28) finished just three parts of a length behind Too Forward. However the distance and going was in his favour. So I'm now dubious about his prospects.

I was a big fan of Hobbs Hill last season after he won three in a row against smart rivals in fast time. But he took a crashing fall on his final start, was off for nearly a year and finished stone last by 65 lengths on his return despite looking well.

Hobbs Hill is a huge, top heavy horse that has clearly been difficult to train. He's required a wind operation since last term.

You could argue that Hobbs Hill ran a clunker last time simply because he couldn't handle Cheltenham's gradients. His other really dreadful run came on his only other start at the track, and it's common for horses with wind problems to run badly there.

But he ran poorly in what should have been suitable circumstances here. And the fact is Hobbs Hill is now ten years of age and has managed only a handful of runs. If his trainer really thought he was going to bounce right back to his best then why has he entered him for the Grand National. That's a pretty desperate move to make with a second season novice that's yet to run even three miles. And I think it flags up the strong possibility that the physical problems that Hobbs Hill has had all his life have come back.

NATAL (9) won this race last year and used to be almost unbeatable on flat tracks. But he ran yet another clunker in favourable circumstances here and seems to have 'gone'.

FROM DAWN TO DUSK HAS REAL CHANCE AT CHELTENHAM

FROM DAWN TO DUSK (38) is clearly a warm weather horse. He's never won in eight tries in November, December and January. But he's won seven of his eight starts from February to October at trips short of three miles on the galloping courses he seems to prefer. His sole loss came last week at Newbury where he kicked on soon after entering the straight in a strongly run handicap hurdle.

It looked to me that From Dawn To Dusk idled due to being marooned in front out in the centre of the course, away from all the other runners. His jockey brought him across to the rail to find some company but couldn't prevent GALA EVENING (38) swooping late to beat him narrowly.

From Dusk To Dawn has won at Cheltenham and looks a biog player for the new Martin Pipe Conditional jockeys hurdle at the Festival.

Gala Evening is clearly very useful and is also entered up at Cheltenham. But his wins have all been on dead flat tracks. In fact he's won five of the last six times he's run on dead flat courses. So I'd say he's more of an Aintree than a Cheltenham prospect.

CHESAPEAKE (37) kept on strongly to finish third and has clearly improved for being stepped up in distance. He is remarkably well handicapped and should take a staying handicap hurdle in the near future.

WILL FIX THE RIB HANDLE BIG FIELDS?

FIX THE RIB (38) extended his unbeaten run over fences to four when making all the running at a strong pace to score at Kempton. But he doesn't have the size or scope of most chasers and I didn't like the way he was stretched to clamber over a few of the jumps.

So far Fix The Rib has been able to dominate relatively small fields of lower class rivals from the front. The only time he's met anything other than a single figure field over fences came in an Irish point to point where he made mistakes and finished third. My feeling is that he's going to have trouble coping with the more crowded field he's likely to face in the Red Rum handicap chase at Aintree.