ANOTHER HUGE RUN BY IMPERIAL COMMANDER

I've said before that I rate IMPERIAL COMMANDER (45) the equal of Kauto Star or any other chaser we've seen in the last decade on my ratings. Now, following his win in the Gold Cup, more people are beginning to recognise what an exceptional horse he really is. The way he beat the still brilliant DENMAN (43) seven lengths was most impressive.

Still, this was a pretty hard fought affair, so I have to put down trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' comments about now going to Aintree with his star down to the kind of post race enthusiasm you often get after a big win. There are only three weeks to Aintree and it's asking a lot of any horse, let alone one whose record so clearly says he's best fresh, to go and win there so soon after such a tough race.

In addition Imperial Commander is a big strong horse that is surely not at his best around tight turns. He did win a point to point around the tight Summerhill course. But he hardly had to produce his best there. His Racing Post rating for the win was 92 pounds lower than for his Gold Cup success. In three starts around tight tracks under rules Imperial Commander has run a clunker every single time, including once at Aintree.

It does seem pretty clear that Imperial Commander is best with seven weeks or more between his runs. If that unlucky head bob photo against Kauto Star had gone his way he would have won all eight times he's come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more (I'm including his point to point win). Off a quicker return he's won just one time out of nine, and that was in a minor novice chase against weak opposition.

DENMAN (43) was game in defeat and is as good as ever judged by my speed ratings. Still, he's not getting any younger and probably only has a couple more big races left in him so his connections will have to pick their spots carefully.

I don't like the way COOLDINE (36) tired so badly after moving well for a long way. I don't think it was lack of stamina that caused this to happen. My suspicion is that he has some sort of physical problem, so I can't support him again till he shows a return to form.

Poor old KAUTO STAR deserves a mention. He made a bad mistake early and was under pressure and beginning to look in serious trouble when taking a crashing fall four out.

I have to say that it looks like all those miles of racing have finally caught up with Kauto Star. He's never looked in trouble so far out in any of his British or Irish starts and the stats say he's probably reached the stage where deterioration is inevitable.

I say this because I've carried out some research and found the two French bred horses that have lasted longer at the top of the three mile chasing tree than any in the last three decades. They are the full brothers Al Capone II and The Fellow.

Al Capone II is famous for being the only horse to win a Grade 1 race seven years in a row. He took the Prix La Haye Jousselin ever year from 1993 to 1999 (he finished second when going for eight in a row in 2000).

The Fellow won the Prix La Haye Jousselin, the Grand Steeplechase de Paris, the King George (twice) and Cheltenham Gold Cup at the fourth attempt, having been second twice and fourth in the race previously.

The interesting thing is that the very last Grade 1 chase that both Al Capone II and The Fellow won was the twelfth over three miles plus that they contested.

Three mile plus Grade 1 chases are incredibly taxing. Sectional times show that the runners generally go the same pace they'd normally run in a two mile chase but then keep going for another mile or more. This has certainly been true for most of Kauto Star's big wins.

It makes sense that there's only a certain number of runs in three mile plus Grade 1 chases that a horse can take. And for French breds that limit would seem to be twelve. Which is very interesting because the King George that Kauto Star won on his previous start was the twelfth three mile plus Grade 1 chase he'd contested.

BINOCULAR AN EXCEPTIONAL CHAMPION HURDLER

In the last five years we've grown used to seeing the Champion Hurdle develop into a closely run contest. But the impressive victory of BINOCULAR (44) by the biggest margin in six years marked the return to a situation where one hurdler looks to be dominant once more.

Wearing the same colours as the mighty Istabraq, Binocular earned the biggest speed rating I've given a Champion Hurdle winner since J P Mc Manus' great horse was dominating the hurdling scene a decade ago. I note with interest he also earned the biggest Racing Post rating as well.

The fast ground was clearly the key to Binocular's success. It enabled him to use his tremendous turn of foot to swamp his rivals for finishing speed. And this time, unlike in previous starts on slower ground this season, he was fairly pinging the hurdles at real speed.

Binocular is always going to be vulnerable on softer ground, so he's unlikely to build up a big sequence of wins as Istabraq did. But whenever he gets a good surface to race on he's going to be awfully hard to beat.

Runner up KHYBER KIM (42) is unlucky to be around at the same time as such a smart rival. He ran fast enough to win most Champion Hurdles and beat the rest of the field six lengths.

I'm not convinced the idea of taking Khyber Kim to Aintree for the big two and a half mile hurdle is a good one. All his form shows that he's best on his first two starts of the season and with a break of at least six weeks thereafter. There isn't six weeks till Aintree What's more Khyber Kim has run terribly all three times he's run around tight tracks, including twice at the Liverpool venue. In addition there's no good evidence he can stay the two and a half miles.

I've said some rude things about third placed ZAYNAR (39) in the past. But he produced a great run for a horse so young to finish nine and a half lengths third - keeping on remarkably well after chasing the searching gallop set by Celestial Halo. I don't know whether he'll stay the three miles of the World Hurdle next season. But in smaller fields over two and a half miles his turn of foot is always going to be a powerful weapon.

It was good to hear that fourth placed CELESTIAL HALO (38) will be going chasing next season. He's always had bags of ability but lacked the acceleration needed to beat the very top two mile hurdlers. He's a big but athletic chasing sort that showed once more here that he can set a strong pace while jumping accurately. I see him developing into a leading candidate for the Arkle.

GET ME OUT OF HERE A MAGNFICENT CHASING PROSPECT

Watching the video of the Supreme Novices I was struck with what a fantastic physique for chasing the unlucky runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE (40) has. He's a big, strapping sort that's built for three miles and fences but is tremendously athletic at the same time. The way he rallied so strongly to go under by a head after the winner jinked across and caused him to lose momentum two out was tremendous.

The sight prompted me to look up Get Me Out Of Here's pedigree to see if there were strong chasing influences. And there certainly are. He's by Accordion out of a Mandalus mare who is a half sister the to Cheltenham Gold Cup third Harbour Pilot.

It's a shame that Get Me Out Of Here had to lose his unbeaten record in such circumstances. And I have to believe he'd have done better if the early pace hadn't been so moderate. But the big picture is that he is a magnificent chasing prospect.

I'm guessing that despite his obvious strength and stamina laden pedigree Get Me Out Of Here will go the Arkle route next year as War Of Attrition, Kicking King and other future three miler chasers have in the past. The success of Sizing Europe in this year's Arkle shows that's not a bad way to go at all. That one is surely going to be running three miles next season but his raw talent was enough to ensure success in the two mile contest. And going shorter trips has ensured he's never got really tired as a novice and lost confidence in his jumping as a result.

I've bumped up the rating for the Get Me Out Of Here and the winner MENORAH (40) on the basis that they covered the last ten furlongs 0.3 of a second quicker than the runners took in the Champion Hurdle. They went the a rather ordinary pace before that and this hurt the final time.

Menorah actually earned a rating of 42 from me when winning at Kempton over Christmas and is clearly a very smart two mile hurdler. He won rather a messy race here and will almost certainly be capable of a little better when he's learned more about the game. I'm not convinced that he'll be good enough to beat Binocular next year, but there are plenty of other top hurdle races where he'll be able to avoid Nicky Henderson's star.

Third placed DUNGUIB (39) has also earned slightly bigger speed ratings from me. He moved really well as he always does but I think the way this turned into a ten furlong race was against him. He'd won over two and a quarter miles on soft ground last time and was cutting back to two miles on good here. The slow early pace meant it was probably not enough of a stamina test for him. On softer ground or over a longer trip he can still win more Grade 1's.

SIZING EUROPE SHOULD STAY THREE MILES

I've been banging on all season about my belief that SIZING EUROPE (35) will stay three miles. His performance when winning the Arkle provides strong support for this.

The early pace in the Arkle was very strong. In fact it was so strong it brought about what I call a pace collapse. This happens when the entire field goes an unsustainably fast early pace and all the horses tire so badly it hurts the final time.

Sizing Europe pressed the leaders throughout, moving smoothly despite the furious gallop. I seriously doubt that he'd have been able to kick on then hold off all his rivals in the way he did without drawing on stamina reserves sufficient to last a good deal longer.

I've previously touted the King George as a likely future target for Sizing Europe. But seeing how big he is I now wonder whether the tight turns of Kempton will suit him. So I'm now more inclined to say that the Lexus and Hennessy at Leopardstown will be more suitable. The fact that the Irish races often feature a slow early pace which enables a doubtful stayer to win (e.g. Joncol) adds to my confidence that they're the right way to go.

Runner up SOMERSBY (35) has also looked like he could stay a good deal longer than two miles a few time. He had trouble holding his position coming down the hill, just like he did in the Supreme Novices last year. But for this his late rally might well have carried him past Sizing Europe. Though it has to be said that he enjoyed a big advantage by being held up off the stampede for the lead. He'll be shooting for the Gold Cup next year. But I suspect his big chance of a Grade 1 win over three miles plus next term will come in the King George where the dead flat track will suit him better.

RIVERSIDE THEATRE (31) ran a very interesting race back in fifth place. His jockey was clearly right to say he got badly outpaced. He dropped out to be tailed off coming down the hill before staying on like a train in the closing stages. However I wonder where his light-framed physique also made him fight shy of getting involved in all the traffic involved in the big field ahead of him. In addition it was coming down the hill where he lost the most ground. So I'm also thinking he'd do best on a flatter track. This may explain why five of his six wins have been at Kempton and Newbury - both dead flat courses.

Certainly Riverside Theatre should stay two and a half miles judged by this run. But I'm going to be wary of supporting him in big fields or steeply undulating courses in future. He continues to look like a potential Grade 1 winner.

Riverside Theatre is too narrow and light framed to recover from this in time for Aintree. Punchestown is a possibility. But I'd prefer he was rested till next season.

WEAPONS AMNESTY HAS A REAL SHOT IN 2011 GOLD CUP

WEAPONS AMNESTY (42) put up the best performance we've seen in over a decade in the RSA Chase when staying on strongly to rout a very good field by seven lengths while still running strongly crossing the line. Clearly he's a very smart horse on a left handed track when he gets the good ground he needs.

Raceform report that Weapons Amnesty had run up light when losing at Aintree last year. He would have won the other four times he's run on what race times say was good ground if a short head photo loss in a Grade 1 against the top class Pandorama had gone his way.

Seeing that he's somewhat light framed for a chaser and taking on board that he looked to have run up light at Aintree last year, I'd say the connections of Weapons Amnesty are right to put him away for the season. It's pretty clear he's best when fresh.

On my ratings Weapons Amnesty has a real shot in the 2011 Gold Cup. Now may not be the right time to bet him for that race though. It's going to be tough for him to avoid unsuitably soft ground next Winter so he'll probably run below form at some point and drift from his current 12-1. If it's as fast as it normally is at Cheltenham next March he could well score his third successive win at the Festival.

BURTON PORT (40) stayed on really well to snatch second, banishing my concerns that he might prefer a tighter track or have trouble lasting three miles on a testing course. He's not far off Gold Cup class but his lack of stature may mean he's going to have trouble winning in big fields over fences.

LONG RUN (40) made a bold bid to become the first Feltham winner to take the RSA Chase. But he didn't come up the hill as well as the other placed horses and would only have been fourth in one more stride. It makes sense to target the King George with him next year as he'd clearly have trouble lasting the extra two furlongs of the Gold Cup on this stiff course.

KNOCKARA BEAU (40) lost his place with a blunder four out but rallied powerfully and was finishing like a train. He'd have been second in a couple more strides. He jumps better according to his trainer when the ground is soft enough to slow his rivals down a bit. He's a strong, attractive sort that looks capable of staying four miles but has the class to be competitive in top chases at three. If it comes up softer at Aintree or Punchestown I'd be very interested in his chances. Next season he'd be a good candidate for the Hennessy at Newbury.

BIG ZEB SHOULD PULL OFF THE DOUBLE AT PUNCHESTOWN

I've noted in the past that BIG ZEB (41) was every bit as fast as Master Minded on my speed ratings - something that was confirmed when he lost rather unluckily by a head to Paul Nicholls' charge at the Punchestown Festival. Despite that run he'd not gained much recognition because he was widely regarded as a dodgy jumper.

As I've mentioned before, most of the top two mile chasers over the years have tended to hurdle their fences, because that's what required to win at the speed big chases are run over the minimum distances. Therefore falling or unseating is an occupational hazard for such horses. Nobody thought less of the mighty Moscow Flyer because he happened to fall or unseat his rider in five Grade 1 chases. So I've never understood why so many have knocked Big Zeb for his falls.

My theory is that many two mile chasers need time between their runs to build up the glycogen supplies their muscles require to ping the fences at speed. In this regard it's very interesting to note that every one of Big Zeb's four falls has come off a break shorter than six weeks.

In any event Big Zeb cruised through most of the race and jumped really well before being ridden out to score by six lengths.

The big plus with Punchestown in mind is that the early pace wasn't that strong and Forpadydeplasterer's sloppy jumping meant he wasn't able to tackle Big Zeb as strongly as he otherwise might have. As a result Big Zeb didn't have to run quite as fast to win as he has in the past. So even though there's a few days less than six weeks to the Champion Chase at Punchestown I think he'll be fresh enough to produce his best there.

I had my suspicions that third placed KALAHARI KING (36) might prefer a somewhat flatter and less testing course. The way the he lost ground coming down the hill seemed to confirm this. He’s now lost all five times he's run on steeply undulating courses or those with steep uphill finishes. On other sorts of tracks he's won six times from his last seven tries.

Kalahari King has won the last two times he's gone two and a half miles, including in one race at the Punchestown Festival. So, seeing there's no big two mile conditions chase at Aintree his best target there would be the two and a half mile Melling Chase. If he goes there I'd be rather interested in his chances. At Punchestown he'd be taking on Big Zeb again and my ratings say he's not quite up to beating him.

Twist Magic once more showed that he doesn't get home at Cheltenham while Golden Silver also demonstrated again that he doesn't last even the minimum distance on a testing course.

PEDDLERS CROSS IS VERY SMART

PEDDLERS CROSS (41) clocked a very decent time to win what I still want to call the Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. He kept going strongly all the way to beat a whole slew of smart rivals that were all moving well at one stage or another. He's built and bred for chasing and has already won a point to point.

The versatility Peddlers Cross has shown by remaining unbeaten if five starts around tight tracks and galloping ones, on fast ground and soft, and over two miles and two miles five furlongs tells me that he's had plenty of energy in reserve. That's the only way he could have won in such diverse circumstances.

Now that he's running in top company we'll get the chance to see exactly what suits Peddlers Cross is. Whatever it is he's clearly a very smart horse.

Runner up REVE DE SIVOLA (40) moved like a winner but couldn't quite go with Peddlers Cross on the run in. There are a whole bunch of chasers on the dam's side of his pedigree, so it sounds like a good idea to switch him to the bigger jumps next year. If he can show this sort of form he'll be one of the big contenders for the RSA Chase a year from now.

Trainer Dermot Weld had raised concerns about the ability of RITE OF PASSAGE (39) to cope with an undulating track. And though this very smart horse ran third in fast time it is interesting to note he's now lost both times he's tackled Cheltenham but won six of his seven starts elsewhere.

Rite Of Passage has the pace and the stamina to be very effective over two miles on the flat, so I've little doubt that he will end up in the Melbourne Cup later this year as Weld has suggested. In the meantime he could win something pretty decent on the level.

Fourth placed SUMMIT MEETING (39) is also built and bred for the flat but he doesn't seem to have the turn of foot that makes Summit Meeting such an exciting prospect for the months ahead. However he he'd won three of his other most recent starts and chugged on well to take fourth after being hampered early on. He's certainly fast enough to have a real shot of taking the big staying novice hurdle at either Aintree or Punchestown. I'd prefer it to be Punchestown because the only way I can excuse his one sub par recent run is to say he wasn't fresh enough.

Fifth placed FINIAN'S RAINBOW (39) is a big chasing sort that was unlucky to lose his sole point to point start. He's run nothing but big races in five hurdles starts and looks set to be another RSA Chase candidate next term.

This was the first time that THE GIANT BOLSTER (38) had run a long distance on a galloping track and it clearly suited him as he picked up really well late to pull clear of the rest.

The other horse to catch my eye was GHIZAO (18) a big muscular chasing sort that moved well on the outside for a long way but then clearly failed to stay the distance. He'd won three of his previous four starts around two miles and should do well over that sort of distance again especially when switched to fences.

BIG BUCK'S FAR FROM UNBEATABLE

It might seem foolhardy to knock a horse that's just coasted to an easy success in a championship race. But I have to say I'm now getting increasingly dubious about BIG BUCK'S (40).

Even when I adjust my speed rating to take account of the slightly slow pace to three out and ensuing sprint finish I cannot give Big Buck's a proper Grade 1 speed rating for his win in the World Hurdle. Indeed I've never been able to give him a Grade 1 speed rating in any of his races. He's been banging out Grade 2 class times his whole career.

Let's not forget the staying hurdle division is the weakest in jump racing. You never see a top staying hurdler transfer the dominance it shows in big three mile hurdles to other types of races. But you see plenty of Grade 2 and 3 horses switch from two mile chases or three mile chases and do a whole lot better.

Big Buck's himself was just a Grade 2 horse over fences and fixed brush hurdles and I don't believe he's any better now. It's simply that he's meeting softer opposition. When a proper Grade 1 horse takes him on I'm sure he'll get beaten.

I confess that my speed ratings suggest two proper Grade 1 horses took Big Buck's on in the World Hurdle. One was the runner up TIME FOR RUPERT (39), but he's a proper three mile chasing sort that simply isn't built to do well in a sprint finish on fast ground.

The other Grade 1 horse in the World Hurdle on my ratings was TIDAL BAY (34) who got dreadfully outpaced when the gallop picked up sharply at the third last.

I rated Tidal Bay's win in the Cleeve Hurdle the best performance by a staying hurdler in years, certainly better than anything Big Buck's has achieved. But it now looks highly significant that the Cleeve Hurdle was run on soft ground and this race took place on a fast surface. Tidal Bay is a big, top heavy sort that surely needs cut in the ground now whatever his trainer may have said in the past. After all he's now won four hurdles out of five on soft ground but blanked in three tries on a quicker surface.

If the ground turns up soft the next time Tidal Bay runs over hurdles I'd bet him with great confidence to beat anything, including Big Buck's, over three miles. And if he doesn't go to Aintree I'll be very interested in the chances of Time For Rupert turning the form around with the winner, especially if the ground is softer or the pace looks likely to be stronger.

The other horse I'll be taking out of the race is OSCAR DAN DAN (34). He was even more badly outpaced than Tidal Bay when the pace quickened three out and rapidly became just a dot on the horizon as the camera took a head on view of the runners. But when he hit the rising ground he finished very strongly to pass about half a dozen horses.

Oscar Dan Dan is a quirky horse that needs company to encourage him to run. So getting detached was a particularly big disadvantage for him. Any time he meets a big enough field and gets a bit more cut in the ground I'd be wary of opposing him. He's already won one G1 staying hurdle and has the ability to win another on my ratings.

BIG RUNS BY WOGAN AND KILLYGLEN IN GRIMTHORPE

There was a tremendous duel from seven fences out in the Grimthorpe Chase between WOGAN (40) and KILLYGLEN (40). The pair sustained what had been a relentless gallop from the start and pulled clear from three out as they continued to do so.

A mistake at the last swung things in favour of Wogan. But Killyglen rallied and there was little in it at the line. Clearly the two horses are seriously good chasers.

I've noted before that Killyglen seems shy of crowding and has had to be pulled up several times after losing confidence after a blunder in big fields. But this time sheepskin cheekpieces were tried on him for the first time and they seemed to give him the confidence he needed to be competitive in what was a fourteen runner contest.

Sheepskin cheekpieces seem to provide a psychological barrier between a horse and its rivals that often seems to help traffic shy runners like Killyglen.

The only loss Killyglen has suffered in fields of twelve or less was a good second to the high class Knockara Beau over an inadequate two and a half miles. This run suggests he's now capable of showing his best form in bigger fields too, so I'm going to be very interested in his chances in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and anything he contests between now and then.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to switch Killyglen from handicaps and tackle the top three milers in Conditions events. He's already won a Grade 2 and is fast enough to win a weak Grade 1 on my ratings. In handicaps he's always going to be lumbered with big weights, often in big fields that may still spook him cheekpieces or not.

Wogan is clearly very well handicapped indeed and very likely to win a couple more big handicap chases in his next few outings. The fact he's ten and managed just fourteen starts suggests he's had joint or tendon problems. This almost certainly explains why he's been kept to dead flat tracks for most of his runs (horses hit their forelegs harder on the downhill sections of undulating courses).

It may well be that the comments of Wogan's trainer about Cheltenham coming too soon suggest the horse needs rests between his runs. But that's no problem because his next big target isn't until Aintree where he'll surely be tough to beat. Next season he looks a very interesting proposition for the Hennessy at Newbury. And, as long as his handicap mark hasn't gone up too high by then, the Grand National seeing how well he stays.

ERIC'S CHARM AS GOOD AS EVER

Until last week it looked like ERIC'S CHARM (40) couldn't jump fences going left-handed. He'd failed to complete five of the previous six times he'd tired and run far back the only time he'd managed to jump around a left-handed chase course before.

However Eric's Charm is not the only horse with a right-handed preference to win around the huge two mile oval at Newbury. The very easy turns make it possible.

Eric's Charm led or disputed the lead throughout at a searching pace and just kept on going. At twelve years of age he's clearly in the form of his life. If he gets the cut in the ground he needs he'll clearly be a threat in the bet365 Gold Cup, though I'm not convinced it would be a great idea to run him in the National even if the ground came up soft. He fell quite early the only time he was asked to tackle the giant fences before around Liverpool's famous left-handed course.

Runner up KNOWHERE (40) may have cost himself the race by getting unbalanced and losing momentum on the run in.

Knowhere had failed to run up to his best in a long time and I confess I thought he'd deteriorated. But now I suspect he simply needs a dead flat track, presumably because he's feeling his legs more than he used to. After all his other decent run this term came when he ran third to Monet's Garden in a very fast renewal of the Old Roan Chase at dead flat Aintree. It's also worth noting that he was making headway and going pretty well when unseating his rider six out in the 2008 Grand National. This makes him look an interesting outsider for this year's Aintree marathon - assuming he makes the cut with the much lower official rating he now has.

BIG FELLA THANKS LOOKS A SUSPECT NATIONAL FAVOURITE

I can understand why last year's Grand National sixth BIG FELLA THANKS (39) was promoted to favouritism for this year's race following his win over an inadequate two and a half miles in a valuable Grade 3 at Newbury. But the stats say he's an unlikely National winner, and there has to be a concern about the way he eased himself up on the run in.

In fact thought Big Fella Thanks was a pretty safe chuck out at Newbury because there were only nine runners and he's shown repeatedly that he loses interest in small fields. He even tried to pull himself up once in a four runner race at Taunton.

What I hadn't taken account of was that nine runners might just provide enough cover for Big Fella Thanks with a very clever ride from Barry Geraghty.

Geraghty ensured that Big Fella Thanks was surrounded by horses almost all the way through the contest. His mount never had the chance to lose interest. In fact he moved really well throughout.

However Geraghty couldn't keep Big Fella Thanks covered up forever, so after the last he asked him to go clear. Big Fella Thanks quickly opened up a gap of three lengths but almost as quickly he started to ease himself up. The line came in time on the short run in and he was saved.

Even assuming that Big Fella Thanks jumps the National course once more and somehow manages to get to the head of affairs in the closing stages there is one huge problem, and that is the run in. There is a half mile run in at Aintree. By the end of the race Big Fella Thanks will be really tired and if he's good enough to win he'll be lucky to have any company from the last. So how on earth is his jockey going to keep him going for a full half mile?

Runner up PASCO (38) probably wouldn't stay the National trip. But he would certainly be interesting in the Topham Chase over a shorter trip. He has the size and scope to jump the big fences and excels on dead flat courses like Aintree. So far he's won five of the seven times he's run beyond 12 furlongs on dead flat galloping tracks and run a close second in his two losses.

ESCORT'MEN IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

It's been a few years since I awarded a juvenile hurdler as big a speed rating as the one ESCORT'MEN (40) earned from me when winning the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle at Kempton.

All through the race Escort'Men was cruising along on the bridle. Initially he raced in second last place off the strong early gallop. But his jockey Ruby Walsh was still motionless in the saddle as he made smooth progress to canter into the lead at the last and glide clear on the run in to score by fourteen lengths.

Escort'Men ran much faster than any other hurdle winner on the card. And even when you compare the time of his race from the third jump in Punjabi's race (the point where they started running properly in that contest) he still came home 1.1 seconds quicker than the reigning Champion Hurdler.

Escort'Men had fallen on his first UK start but ran a race full of promise on his hurdles debut at Auteuil. This was in a twenty runner Listed hurdle over two and a quarter miles.

In that race Escort'Men lobbed along in midfield, jumping well, till he moved up steadily after halfway. He looked to be going best of all turning in and was just a length back disputing second jumping the last when he made his only mistake of the contest. He tired pretty quickly on the short run in from there - most likely blowing up through lack of fitness (something trainer Paul Nicholls confirmed in a subsequent interview).

My strong suspicion is that Escort'Men would have won that race if he'd had previous experience of hurdles.

Paul Nicholls has built his success largely on horses he's acquired from France. And he's such a dominant force in jump racing that he has his pick of the very best prospects from across the Channel.

This being so it is very interesting when he gives a horse its first start over timber in Britain which ran over hurdles in France but did not place, as was the case with Escort'Men.

For Nicholls to acquire a French horse like this with experience but no obvious form over hurdles it has to have shown a tremendous amount of promise. This is shown by the fact that of the twelve horses of this type he's acquired over the last fourteen years seven won on their first UK start over timber. It would surely have been eight out of twelve if Escort'Men hadn't tipped up on his first British outing.

It's hard not to notice that despite having just turned four, Escort'Men already has the build of a chaser. This is not surprising. He is the first foal to race of a dam whose seven siblings to race more than once included five steeplechasers.

Escort'Men won't be running at Cheltenham. He goes to Aintree instead where I wouldn't dream of opposing him.

Although he clearly has bags of speed, there's a fair bit of stamina in the pedigree of Escort'Men. I'd be pretty sure he'll get two and a half miles when he goes over fences and quite possibly three.

It's way too early to say that Escort'Men could prove to be a viable replacement for Kauto Star when that one retires. All I can say right now is that he's extremely promising.

TOUBAB TOO GOOD TO MISS

Soldatino (36) won the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle in decent style, earning a rating from me that's about par for the class for a juvenile when I adjust for the somewhat slow early pace. But if there was a seriously good horse in the line up I’m convinced it was the runner up TOUBAB (33).

Toubab has a big stride that shows a bit of knee action. He's a grey too, so looks a bit like a rocking horse as he lollops along with his unusual stride pattern. He's a classy looking sort that is clearly built for fences and longer than two miles. So he was not suited by the fact that the race developed into a sprint from the turn into the straight. He just couldn't jump the two hurdles effectively in the straight at the speed they were traveling. He landed on all fours over the second last and lost even more ground when clattering through the last and being slow to get back into his stride. In a more strongly run race or on a stiffer track I suspect he would have won.

On his previous start Toubab lost a very ordinary novices hurdle at Taunton by pulling too hard, having looked like a potential Festival winner when allowed to bowl along on his previous start at Enghein in France.

For the first couple of jumps at Enghein, Toubab was restrained in third or fourth place off the modest early gallop. Then he was allowed to go to the front and bowl along while jumping boldly at a good pace. He pulled steadily further clear until he was a dozen lengths ahead with four to jump. By three out his margin was down to seven lengths. Two out it was four lengths. At the last his lead was down to three lengths. But it was only in the final hundred yards that he finally got caught. He ended up running third. If the race had been a furlong shorter as it was at Taunton he would have scored. This is pretty remarkable because the horse that won at Enghein was Prince Oui Oui who went on to win a Grade 1 soon after.

Toubab is an attractive, pacey, free striding sort that clearly jumps well and runs with a lot of enthusiasm. He certainly was happier here being allowed to go with the front runner here instead of being restrained as he was at Taunton.

At Taunton I figured that Toubab would immediately jump off in front and go further and further clear like he had at Enghein. But his rider looked determined to teach him to settle and the pair fought each other almost the whole way till Toubab tired.

Toubab does not have much acceleration and will be winning over two and a half miles plus in due course. Right now he's going to have top make do with the two mile races open to juveniles, though there is the option of switching him to novice events in order to go longer.

Given his stride pattern I think Toubab is likely to prove best on yielding or softer going. If he gets his ground at Cheltenham he'd certainly be a very interesting contender for the Fred Winter. The stiff track and likely strong early pace would bring his obvious stamina into play.

If Toubab loses at Cheltenham it will be very tempting to skip an easy win in a low grade race in order to keep him a novice for next season. Or it could be he'll go over fences right away next term. Either way he looks a good prospect.

THE NIGHTINGALE IS A SMART TWO AND A HALF MILE CHASER

THE NIGHTINGALE (40) jumped exuberantly to win the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton full of running in fast time. The big question now is whether he'll stay the two and a half miles of the RSA Chase.

Personally I'd be surprised if The Nightingale stayed three miles. He looks and runs like an out and out two and a half mile chaser. I concede he had a breathing problem when failing to get home and finishing distressed over 2m 5f and 2m 6f. But he just looks too darned pacey to be a three miler. So I hope his connections decide to skip Cheltenham and go for the Manifesto Novices Chase at Aintree instead. The two and a half miles of that race around another tight course should suit him perfectly.

The Nightingale had a breathing operation before this season, and there's always a question whether the effects will last beyond a couple of runs. If they do then The Nightingale should become one of the top two and a half mile chasers. He's certainly exciting to watch as he stands off so far at some of the jumps and clears others at a terrific speed.

It's worth mentioning that Ruby Walsh did something very shrewd by easing The Nightingale back off the lead for about half a mile midway through the race. Later analysis suggests that if he'd kept going at the same pace he'd been setting The Nightingale would have tired badly and become a sitting duck in the closing stages. He'd only been going about a second quicker than he should have and it took me quite a while with a calculator to estimate this after the race. Ruby Walsh somehow knew it as it was happening.

The previous week at Ascot Walsh had won a race he should have lost when holding back on Lush Life when the hot favourite Menorah rushed up to join and pass two front runners who were going too fast. Clearly he has a very good sense of pace, something that the research of Dr Roger Harris a few years back suggests few jockeys possess.

LEADERS WENT TOO FAST IN RACING POST CHASE

Nearly fifteen years ago I watched Lord Carson run the fastest first half mile ever clocked at Belmont Park during a six furlong race. He set such a fast pace that the entire field, including himself, almost ground to a walk in the final quarter mile. All the runners had reached what I call their 'collapse point'.

You don't often see this sort of thing happen in a flat race, and almost never in a sprint. But it's a reasonably common occurrence in jump racing due to the extended distances and the difficulty jockeys have in estimating the pace.

The latest example came in the Racing Post Chase where the leaders entered the home straight a full two seconds sooner than they should have if they'd been going what I estimate to be a sustainable pace. Everything bar the first two home was desperately tired at that point and those two ground to a halt on the run in. You can get an idea of how much the principals tired when you realise they came home up the straight 5.6 seconds slower than The Nightingale did in the novice chase.

In a more normally run race the first two would have earned speed ratings of around 40 from me. The unsustainable pace caused them to run about three seconds slower than they should and earn much lower ratings.

RAZOR ROYALE (35) won the race, clinging on in a weird slow motion finish as he and runner up Nacarat did their best to keep moving on the run in.

Clearly Razor Royale is very well suited by a strongly run three miles. The other time he had a really strong pace to run at over the distance he scored by 23 lengths from that other smart front runner The Sawyer at Cheltenham. I'm rather doubtful that he'll recover from this race in time to produce his best at the Cheltenham Festival in the William Hill Chase. But anytime he contests a big handicap chase over three miles plus with a large enough field to ensure a searching early pace I'll be interested.

NACARAT (35) showed once again that he can set a remarkably strong pace and just keep on going. He can't handle the steep downhill section at Cheltenham (due to being 'straight through the shoulder' he hits the ground too hard). He'll be missing the meeting and going to Aintree instead. He should be fresh enough there to produce his best. Hopefully he'll go for the Totesport Bowl this time over three miles and a furlong. I don't think the two and a half miles of the Melling Chase was far enough for him last season.