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PROCLAMATION IS TOP CLASS Last week I noted that TUCKER (37) was one of the fastest three year olds on the basis of his win at Newmarket. This week I have to report that he didn't run much slower at Goodwood but got hammered by PROCLAMATION (40). Proclamation pulled too hard and failed to last the extended ten furlongs in the Dante. He's now won both his other starts at shorter trips impressively. He beat Unfurled (who I've given speed ratings as high as 38) by over three lengths in his maiden win - and now he's gone and demolished another very smart rival in Tucker. Right now I would not want to bet any three year old against Proclamation at a mile, not even Footstepsinthesand. So I hope his connections stump up the supplementary entry fee for the St James' Palace Stakes where I'd rate him the one they all have to beat. I don't know where Tucker goes from here. It now looks like he's a Group 2 or 3 rather than a Group 1 horse. Nonetheless I'd bet he proves profitable to follow in his next few starts.
ELECTROCUTIONIST LOOKING GOOD FOR THE HARDWICKE STAKES Last year I gave ELECTROCUTIONIST (43) a huge speed rating for his short head loss to German Champ Shirocco in Italy's biggest middle distance race the Gran Premio Del Jockey Club. He showed that he's as good as ever when blasting home by six lengths in the Group 2 Premio Carlo d'Alessio at the Capannelle on his seasonal debut. A measure of how fast Electrocutionist ran at the Capannelle can be gained from the fact that he ran one and a half seconds faster than the winner of the Derby Italiano over the same course and distance later on the same card. Reports I translated off the web suggest that Electocutionist won in little more than a common canter and had a great deal in hand. He is now regarded as the Champion racehorse of Italy. Following the successes of former Italian stars Falbrav and Rakti on the world stage in recent years I wouldn't like to bet that anything is going to stop Electrocutionist from winning his next intended target which is the Hardwicke Stakes in June. After that I note with interest he is entered in the Eclipse Stakes which was won by Falbrav a couple of seasons ago. Make no mistake Electrocutionist is one of the best horses racing right now.
PLANET IS SERIOUSLY UNDER-RATED PLANET (38) ran away with a Goodwood handicap in seriously good Group class time according to my speed ratings. So far he has only been beaten on softer ground or at shorter distances. He's won both times he's raced at middle distances on fast ground and looks set to win several more races before he's finished. Last year at this time I suggested that Admiral was the best handicapped three year old in training and that he'd have a big chance in the King George V Handicap at the Royal meeting in June. He won that race of course and I'm fervently hoping that Planet goes the same route. He looks ludicrously under-rated on official figures and more than capable of winning at Royal Ascot at York. I would bet on the second and third MAHMJRA (36) and CAPE ENTERPRISE (36) franking this form soon. They both look like highly progressive three year olds to me.
SOMETHING WORTH BEARING IN MIND FOR THE JERSEY STAKES Given his speedy pedigree, it's not surprising that SOMETHING (37) was kept to short sprints for his first three starts. But he clearly has stamina because he improved massively when stepped up to seven furlongs at Newmarket. He ended up winning a warm looking maiden by five lengths in what I rate Group class time for a three year old. Something is now set to go for the Group 3 Jersey Stakes over the same distance and he should have a real chance if most of the better entrants go for the St James' Palace Stakes as they normally do.
PATAVELLIAN HAS REAL CHANCE AT THE ROYAL MEETING Until last week all of the wins scored by Baltic King (40) since his maiden victory had come on tracks with uphill finishes. His success at Windsor in a good LIsted sprint opens up new possibilities. Clearly he's just as good over six furlongs on a flat track as he is over five furlongs on a stiff one. I can't quite recommend him as one to follow now though as he's set to step up in class and Britain is overstocked with good sprinters. Runner-up PATAVELLIAN (39) is another matter though. He has been one of Europe's top sprinters for quite some time now and earned speed ratings as high as 44 from me. His quirk seems to be that he appears to need the exceptionally strong pace that can only be generated by a really big field. He seemed to show why by pulling hard in this race early on. So far Patavellian has lost all ten times he's run in races with fewer than 14 runners but won seven of the last eleven times he's contested events with 14 or more starters. He's entered in all the big sprints at Royal Ascot at York in a few week's time, and those normally attract big fields. Therefore I'd be looking for him to bounce back to his best at the big meeting.
CLASSIC ENCOUNTER HAS BIG CHANCE IN NORFOLK STAKES There is a widespread prejudice among punters against smaller stables. And I'm hoping that it leads to CLASSIC ENCOUNTER (35) starting at decent odds for the Norfolk Stakes. That is his target following a runaway win in exceptionally fast time at Newmarket, and I rate him the one they'll all have to beat.. Classic Encounter ran green and lost narrowly on his only previous start. This run marks him out as the fastest two year old we've seen so far this season according to my ratings. We'll be seeing several quicker youngsters later on but Classic Encounter ran more than quick enough to take the Norfolk Stakes here. Classic Encounter's trainer, David Simcock, looks worth keeping an eye on. He's only been going a couple of seasons and has done well with the material he's been given so far.
GODFREY STREET A VERY FAST TWO YEAR OLD GODFREY STREET (34) ran a solid Group class time to win a maiden race on the Polytrack. He's almost certainly just a five furlong horse that doesn't even last that far on anything but fast ground. Right now that's all he needs to be to have a major chance in his intended target race the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury in July. Before then I'd be wary of opposing him on fast ground at the minimum distance. I wouldn't worry about a switch to turf either. Polytrack is very close to turf in terms of its physical properties and most horses switch between the two surfaces without any trouble.
DANCER'S SERENADE WELL AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER DANCER'S SERENADE (36) showed radical improvement when allowed to bowl along in the lead at Ripon. He ended up scoring by nine lengths in Listed class time and is clearly a useful three year old. How good he is only time will tell. At present he certainly looks set to be very well handicapped if he takes up one of his immediate engagements. His official rating makes him eligible for class 5 contests and he's much better than that.
PAGAN SWORD JUST KEEPS ON WINNING Every year more and more smart three year olds contest early season handicaps in Britain. It's now got to the point where I'm awarding more big speed ratings to three year olds in handicaps than pattern races before June. PAGAN SWORD (36) is the latest example of this trend. He got into all sorts of trouble two runs back at Goodwood. Otherwise he is unbeaten in three tries beyond a mile. His latest success came in fast time at Doncaster and I doubt that he's stopped winning yet. My ratings say he's Listed class but he's still eligible for class 4 handicaps.
CESARE CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP How good is CESARE (38)? He earned a Group 3 class speed rating from me when winning a hot handicap at Ripon and would now be unbeaten in four starts at seven furlongs and a mile but for running green and losing narrowly on his racecourse debut. So far Cesare's form has all been on officially yielding or soft ground. But the clock indicates it was no slower than good at Ripon, so I suspect he'll reproduce his form as the going firms up through the Summer months. This being so he looks a fair bet to win a big handicap sometime soon.
TUCKER ONE OF THE TOP THREE YEAR OLDS A lot of horses had hard luck stories in the 2000 Guineas. One of them was Tucker who got hampered but was still only beaten five lengths. He came out over the same course and distance and showed what he could do last week when winning a good conditions race in seriously fast time. The only three year old to have earned a bigger speed rating from me over a mile or more so far this year is the freakishly fast filly Cassydora. So I think Tucker's connections are aiming a bit low in shooting for the Listed Heron Stakes at Goodwood for Tucker's next target. No doubt they just want to give him more experience and build his confidence with another win before they shoot him up to Group 1 company again. I certainly hope they do that by taking up the colt's engagement in the St James' Palace Stakes where I'd have to give Tucker a real chance. Runner-up CHRYSANDER (37) is also in the St James' Palace Stakes, but I rather doubt he's up to that class seeing the way Tucker out pointed him here. Nonetheless he's a lightly-raced and highly progressive three year old that is surely going to take at least a Listed race soon.
BELENUS LOOKS TO HAVE SERIOUS CHANCE IN DERBY A lot of people seem to be knocking the form of the Predominate Stakes because it featured a small field and a tight finish. But the clock says it was a strong race. In fact I awarded the winner UNFURLED (38) the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old colt at a middle distance so far this season. Runner-up INDIGO CAT (38) and third-placed BELENUS (36) also earned good Group class speed ratings for three year olds. According to my ratings Unfurled has a better shot in the Derby than his stablemate Kong who won the Lingfield Derby Trial. But if we saw a Derby winner in the Predomiante I suspect it was Indigo Cat or Belenus as they seem more likely to improve. Indigo Cat ran green when winning at Lingfield and did so again here. He's earned very good speed ratings from me both times he's run. I suspect Kieren Fallon will choose one of his stablemates for the Derby, but I'm expecting Indigo Cat to go well at Epsom. He looks rather attractive each-way at the current big odds. Belenus is one of those very rare horses that's described as a 'nice colt' by Raceform. A high percentage of horses with a physique that merits this complimentary description turn out ot be Group 1 performers and I suspect that Belenus is going to as well. He ran close here despite having had an interrupted preparation. He apparently had sore shins just a month before the race and was only able to do two pieces of serious work (it normally takes five strong gallops spaced five to seven days apart to get a horse fit when it's been off for a few months). Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor says he'll have him 'spot on' next time out and I'm betting he's right. As I see it, Belenus represents Godolphin's best chance of winning this year's Derby. The stable's other two entrants for the race have both run over a mile or less this year and the recent stats for the race indicates that this will have conditioned them to shorter distances (none of the last twelve Derby winners prepped at a mile or less at three). Belenus hung in the Predominate. This coupled with the reports of sore shins and the fact that he wore bandages on his front legs is going to put a lot of people off him at Epsom. But for me it suggests that his stable were so keen to get him ready for the Derby that they risked running him before he'd fully gotten over his episode of sore shins. This reasoning makes Belenus the best Derby candidate to come out of what I rated the fastest Derby Trial of them all. Incidentally, while we're talking about Belenus, I think I ought to raise the issue of his name. Surely it is about time that the various racing authorities got their acts together so that we don't have name duplications of at least famous horses. The German horse called Belenus was a multiple Group 1 winner and was racing just four years ago. With today's technology, there's no excuse for not having a central registry of names to ensure that at least famous names don't get duplicated within say thirty years.
CAMACHO IS A VERY SMART SPRINTER INDEED Recently I reported that Nota Bene might well be fast enough to become champion sprinter. Now I have to add that another three year old sprinter CAMACHO (40) could easily be just as good. Camacho won in seriously fast time at Haydock. I gave him a speed rating only one point lower than Nota Bene who I rate the fastest three year old we've seen so far this term. Henry Cecil made his reputation training some of the best middle distance horses of the past couple of decades. Now, in a period where his fortunes have been in decline, it looks like he's got himself a top class sprinter. It's been five long years since Henry Cecil last trained a Group 1 winner. If Camacho can stop the rot by winning him the July Cup I bet a lot of people will be cheering.
CURTAIN BLUFF IS A SMART THREE YEAR OLD CURTAIN BLUFF (36) showed serious improvement on his first three efforts when running away with a Beverley maiden over an extended seven furlongs. It's hard to say at this stage what his preferences are, but he certainly ought to be able to follow up this win. He looks an interesting prospect for the Britannia Handicap.
PIPPA'S DANCER CAN WIN AGAIN PIPPA'S DANCER (35) ran pretty fast for a three year old filly to take a maiden at Bath. Her jockey says she would have won her previous start too if she hadn't almost been knocked over. Okay she's a sprinter and there are plenty of fast sprinters in Britain. But against her own age group Pippa's Dancer should still be pretty hard to peg back next time.
WATCH OUT FOR MR SANDICLIFFE SCOOBY DUDE (31) and MR SANDICLIFFE (31) pulled well clear of their pursuers when running 1-2 in a fast juvenile maiden at Leicester. Both look worth following but I suspect Mr Sandicliffe will turn out the best of the pair. After all it was his racecourse debut and he lost ground at the start.
FEED THE METER WON'T BE PARKED IN CLASS FIVE FOR LONG FEED THE METER (37) ran a freakishly fast time for a class 5 handicap at Doncaster. He's clearly way better than a class 5 horse and ought to be winning better races than this soon. He has in fact won three of the five times that he's run 12 furlongs. It's hard to explain his two losses at this stage as there is so little form to go on. But I'd speculate that it has something to do with the fact he pulls hard. It's interesting that his two poor runs at 12 furlongs coincided with the two times he was drawn next to the rail. There may or may not be a connection here. Only time will tell.
MOSCOW DANCER IS A SERIOUSLY GOOD CHASER You don't see many good chasers in the off season. But MOSCOW DANCER (40) is undoubtedly a major exception. He blasted home by ten lengths from a strong field at Kelso and looks insanely well handicapped at present. I rate him a Grade 2 class performer yet he's probably still going to be eligible for class D contests after this win. Moscow Dancer won three hurdle races in a row a couple of years ago then broke down. Peter Monteith has managed to bring him back to his best to win this race and his preceding one. I wouldn't want to oppose Moscow Dancer when he attempts to win three races in a row for the second time next time out. In fact I can't see anything to stop him winning a whole bunch of races.
NOTA BENE MAY WELL BE CHAMPION SPRINTER Okay the strong tailwind helped him break the track record, but however you add up the numbers there's no getting away from the fact that NOTA BENE (41) ran a tremendously fast time to win at Newbury. He buried the very smart Andronikos by three lengths despite being eased at the finish. And he earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old so far this season. Trainer David Elsworth apparently told the Racing Post that Nota Bene is the fastest horse he's ever trained. He also stated that the horse should still be unbeaten after five starts as he was most unlucky on his racecourse debut. I concede that it's early days yet, but this was a huge performance and it's perfectly possible that Nota Bene is going to end up champion sprinter this season.
SOLDIER'S TALE PROBABLY ONE OF THE TOP SPRINTERS SOLDIER'S TALE (40) produced a tremendous late run to win a red hot sprint handicap at York. He's lightly-raced and has any amount of potential. I'd be surprised if he didn't take a Group race sometime in the next couple of months. Runner-up FONTHILL ROAD (40) has long been one of the best sprint handicappers around but is still under-rated by the official handicapper if my speed figures are any guide. This being so I'd expect him to be very competitive in the big sprint handicaps such as the Wokingham over the same course and distance as this contest.
FORT DIGNITY MAY WELL BE GROUP 1 CLASS FORT DIGNITY (41) earned as speed rating only a length per mile off the average Group 1 winner when taking a hot Listed race at Windsor. He's a lightly-raced, very progressive looking four year old who looks set to be competitive in some of the very best races. I note with interest that he's already entered in three Group 1 events. Two of them are at ten furlongs, and jockey Johnny Murtagh expressed confidence that a step up to that trip is well within Fort Dignity's capabilities. Runner-up TAKE A BOW (41) took some time to come to hand last year according to his trainer, so it's not surprising that the Racing Post reporter felt he looked a bit backward in the preliminaries on what was his seasonal debut. Nonetheless he continued the steady improvement he showed all through last season to earn yet another lifetime best speed figure from me. No doubt he was helped by the lightning fast ground as his trainer says he acts on it so well. But there should be plenty of that around since the Summer is now approaching. Take A Bow certainly ought to be able to win a Group race in one of his next few starts.
WISE DENNIS CAN WIN AGAIN WISE DENNIS (37) ran the fastest time on York's opening day to win a good Listed handicap over seven furlongs. He obviously stays further and also seems versatile as to going and type of course. This suggests it won't be that hard for him to be placed to win again. He's only a few lengths off the best three year olds and would be tough to beat in Group 3 company against his own age group.
SECRET HISTORY PROVES SHE'S ONE OF THE TOP FILLIES I've noted SECRET HISTORY (28) here before when awarding her a speed rating of 37, only a point off 1,000 Guineas winner Virginia Waters. She didn't have to run anywhere near that fast to win the Musidora Stakes because she was allowed to set a slow pace. But the way that she quickened up and blew her rivals away left no doubt that she really is as good as her previous form made her look. Secret History's trainer, Mark Johnston, is renowned for his ability to get horses to outstay their pedigrees. In fact if you'd simply bet all his runners the first time they stepped up to ten furlongs or more you'd have made a decent profit over the last 12 years. When Mark Johnston chooses a Group race to step up one of his three year olds to ten furlongs plus for the first time he does just as well. Over the last 12 years he's tried this maneuver seven times. It has produced three wins (Fight Your Corner in the Chester Vase, Bandari in the Lingfield Derby Trial and now Secret History) and three third places.
ESWARAH: DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE Eswarah (20) was promoted to Oaks favourite on the basis of a win in very slow time in what is invariably the weakest Oaks Trial of all at Newbury. Her connections seem concerned about her soundness. They've mentioned that she had problems last year and that they wouldn't want to risk her on firm ground again. They've also talked an awful lot about whether or not she'll be able to come down the hill at Epsom which suggests it's clearly a big concern for them. Racing Manager Angus Gold seemed to imply after her racecourse debut win that it was a big ask for Eswarah to win the Oaks as it was only six weeks away. I'd have to endorse that view and am puzzled at her short price for the Oaks. Off two soft races I'd say she just doesn't have the seasoning for the big race. And I think she also lacks the ability to become only the second Oaks winner in the last 30 years not to have run at two (User Friendly is the only filly to achieve this feat in that time). As I see it, Eswarah is one of those hype horses the bookies love. She's never run a fast time or beaten decent horses. It's all just talk.
AJIGOLO ONE OF THE BEST JUVENILES SO FAR Even making the maximum allowance I make for a tailwind in years AJIGOLO (32) still put up a seriously good time when lowering the five furlong course record at Salisbury. He's clearly a solid pattern class performer. Whether or not he can stay beyond five furlongs or act on anything but fast ground remains to be seen. Right now though he's looking good to win again and must have prospects of taking a pattern race.
RIVER FALCON A HIGH CLASS SPRINTER I'm always reluctant to mention any British sprinter here because the UK is so overstocked with smart five and six furlong horses. But I'm simply compelled to note the remarkably fast performance of RIVER FALCON (42) at York. His win in a hot handicap at York marks him out as one of the best sprinters around. Clearly, like a lot of smart sprinters, he is peaking at five years of age. It's a pity that River Falcon can't act on fast ground. But on genuinely good or slower I wouldn't want to oppose him in any handicap over the next few months. And on soft ground I'd bet him to win just about any Listed or Group sprint.
ALL TOO BEAUTIFUL DOES THE JOB ALL TO BEAUTIFUL (36) didn't have to run her best to win the Group 3 Middleton Stakes at York. But the race was simply a warm-up for the Pretty Polly stakes and it served the purpose well. All Too Beautiful earned speed ratings as high as 40 from me last year and that should be good enough for the bigger race next time.
MOTIVATOR RUNS FAST OFF A SLOW PACE When the early pace is visibly slow in a race you don't often get a fast final time. So MOTIVATOR (35) did well to earn a respectable speed rating off the early crawl in the Dante Stakes. He demonstrated the all-important ability to quicken and I remain to be convinced that he is just a soft ground performer. After all his sire Montjeu won the King George on firm ground despite having a reputation for preferring it softer and his dam and her other two foals to date were out and out firm ground performers. In addition his jockey said last year that they only kept him to softer ground because he was immature and that when he matured and strengthen up he'd be able to act on good ground. I suspect that even if it had been firm ground Motivator would still have won the Dante. Seeing how fast he ran at two (I rated him second only to Footstepsinthesand on the clock) he deserves to be Derby favourite.
ASTRONOMICAL'S PROSPECTS ARE LOOKING UP ASTRONOMICAL (36) ran a Listed class time to win a decent three year old handicap at Nottingham over a mile. He's bred to go further and could be anything at this point. Certainly he looks capable of taking another race like this before stepping up into better class.
RAKTI RUNS A WORLD CLASS TIME RAKTI (46) has run a whole string of extraordinarily fast times in his career. But in the Lockinge Stakes, even after making the biggest possible allowance for the tailwind, he actually earned a slightly bigger speed rating than I've ever awarded him. He's clearly brilliant at a mile and the front running tactics suited him very well at a shorter trip. In the past he's pulled hard and failed to get home over longer. As long as Rakti is allowed to bowl along and avoids soft ground I don't see him getting beat at a mile. The main challenge will come if he goes for the Breeders' Cup Mile as planned. In that race they invariably go a much slower early pace than they would in an equivalent European contest. If Rakti is going to win there I think he'll need to go of fast as he did at Newbury. That will mean he'd be ten or fifteen lengths clear early on. This being so I'd not want a US jockey to be on board as they'd never want to go that fast in a turf race. Runner-up MAC LOVE (41) has clearly improved at longer distances. He'd won both he previous times he'd run beyond six furlongs on fast ground and produced his best ever performance here. On the clock he's a Group 2 horse only, so I hope his connections don't overface him. If they don't he ought to be capable of winning soon.
INTREPID JACK LOOKING GOOD FOR THE CORAL SPRINT INTREPID JACK (38) ran away with a Newbury sprint handicap in Group class time. He's undoubtedly one of the best three year old sprinters we've seen so far this year and will surely take a lot of beating if he takes up his entry in the Coral Sprint at Newmarket.
CASSYDORA THE FASTEST THREE YEAR OLD SO FAR A few times a season my speed ratings give me a huge and most unexpected steer towards a certain horse. Last Saturday they indicated that CASSYDORA (40) put up an extraordinarily good performance when blasting home by a wide maring in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. I rated Cassydora's performance the best by a three year old of either sex in Britain, Ireland or France all season. If my speed ratings are right she ran much quicker than the average Oaks winner and a whole lot faster than any of her rivals at Epsom have ever managed. I'm pretty confident that I've got Cassydora's rating right. It certainly explains why she was able to bury the subsequent Group 1 winner Playful Act on her second start last year. Her trainer, John Dunlop says that Cassydora pulled too hard for her own good when losing to that filly in her only subsequent start at two. She showed on Saturday that she has learned to settle now. She also proved that she stays the Oaks trip and can handle an undulating course like Epsom. As I see it the current 6-1 generally available about Cassydora for the Oaks is way too big. She really ought to be favorite at half those odds or less.
INDIGO CAT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE PREDOMINATE STAKES When Aiden O'Brien runs a horse in a British maiden it pays to sit up and take notice. So it's not that surprising his charge INDIGO CAT (37) was able to win what I rated a red hot maiden at Lingfield last Saturday on his racecourse debut. Indigo Cat now goes for the Predominate Stakes at Goodwood where my speed raitngs suggest he'll have a major chance. It's perfectly possible that Indigo Cat will prove good enough to run in the Derby at Epsom. And you won't find me knocking his chances of staying the mile and a half because of his speedy sire Storm Cat. My studies show that nowadays horses aren't bred to stay middle distances. Instead they must be conditioned to stay by being raced over longer trips - and that's exactly what Aiden O'Brien is doing with Indigo Cat.
MARAAHEL IMPROVES AT TEN FURLONGS MARAAHEL (40) finished a close fourth in last year's St Leger. But that race was run at a crawl in the early stages so it was hardly a test of stamina. The recent John Porter Stakes was and jockey Willie Supple felt that Maraahel didn't quite last the twelve furlongs that day. His opinion seemed to be borne out when Maraahel cut back to ten furlongs for the Group 3 Tradesman's Cup at Chester. Maraahel won this race well, beating a very useful yardstick in SOLSKJAER (39) despite idling in front. Maraahel had contested Group 1 contests in two of his last three starts and was up against Group 1 horses in the John Porter according to my ratings. No doubt he'll be stepping back up to that class soon and I'm far from convinced that he's not capable of winning at that level. He earned a solid Group 2 rating from me here and looks one of the most interesting older horses racing right now. Solskjaer is very game, consistent and versatile. He's already won a Group 2 and deserves to take another.
DON'T UNDERESTIMATE SHABERNAK AND ACROPOLIS There is one race-meeting that I find more challenging than any other when it comes to making speed ratings. This is the last day of the Chester May meeting where they always move the rail out several yards in order to provide fresh ground. So, in preparation I did a good deal of research this year and was surprised at what I found. I discovered that several of the course records were actually set on the last day of the Chester May meeting. It's hard to say exactly but what seems to work is to add 0.7 seconds a mile to all the race times. This produced what looks like a sensible result as it suggests that the Ormonde Stakes won by DAY FLIGHT (40) was the fastest race of the day which makes perfect sense. I find it a bit odd that an obviously Group 1 horse like Day Flight has now run three times below Group 1 class this season. I guess there wasn't much choice in the matter as Day Flight needs at least good or softer ground and the Group 1 races don't come along till the going has firmed up. I imagine that Day Flight will now be rested or at least sparingly campaigned till the Autumn when the ground will once again turn in his favour. At that time we'll hopefully discover just how good he really is. I gave him a speed rating of 42 for his win in the John Porter and that is solid Group 1 class. It's perfectly possible he could actually run a bit faster. So far he's won all five times he's encountered genuinely good or slower ground, and he does seem to idle a bit when he hits the front. As was the case last time out, Day Flight was facing rivals that I rate at least borderline Group 1 class in SHABERNAK (40) and ACROPOLIS (39). Shabernak had earned a rating of 41 from me when beating Itemise at Doncaster three runs before in a race where he and the runner up pulled well clear of the field. Itemise certainly franked the form by only losing an Australian Group 1 in a photo last year. Shabernak did well to put up such a good performance at a trip that's probably a bit on the short side for him. My ratings suggest his entry in the Gold Cup is by no means an optimistic one. He is a high class stayer. Acropolis surprised me by running so close on the yielding surface as I'm convinced he's a firm ground performer. Looking at the going allowances I make for my speed ratings I note with interest that Acropolis has now run three times beyond sprint trips on ground that I rate 'super-fast' - that is a surface so fast that it's reached the limit beyond which it's impossible to speed up the runners any further. Acropolis has won two of the three times he's run on such lightning fast ground and ran his best ever race to be fourth in the Arc the other time. He's yet to win or run up to his best in four tries on slower going. Even on ground that I rated just three fifths of a second per mile slower than good Acropolis ran stone last at Saint-Cloud as a two year old. My speed ratings indicate that on genuinely firm ground Acropolis is one of the best horses in Europe. I look forward to getting a big price about him when he next gets the firm ground he appears to need in a Group 1 race.
SHE'S OUR BEAUTY AND MULTIPLE ARE SMART FILLIES Dandy Nicholls has already produced a fast two year old colt in Strike Up The Band. Last week he came up with a fast two year old filly when SHE'S OUR BEAUTY (32) scored at Catterick. Like all the best two year olds we've seen so far She's Our Beauty is sprint bred and earned a rating that takes her only just into pattern class territory. However, with the juvenile opposition so weak right now I'd be surprised if she doesn't win again soon. Runner-up MULTIPLE (31) is more stoutly bred and is almost certainly going to be a better horse than the winner long term. She behaved green before and during the race but was catching the winner hand over fist at the finish. Obviously she'll improve when two year old races beyond five furlongs become available. In the meantime she'll still be hard to beat even if she takes up her engagement in a hot looking winner's race at York or the Listed race at Redcar she's also entered in.
TOP JUVENILE FILLY AND COLT GO 1-2 AT CHESTER Aaccording to my ratings we saw the fastest juvenile filly and the fastest colt when OOH AH CAMARA (34) and STRIKE UP THE BAND (34) fought out the finish of Chester's Lily Agnes Conditions stakes (which surely deserves Listed status). I've mentioned Strike Up The Band before. His effort here confirmed the idea that he's going to have a serious chance in the Norfolk Stakes. Ooh Ah Camara's form shows a remarkable upward curve. She has improved several lengths with each successive start if my speed ratings are any guide. This was her fifth start, but I'm not convinced she's stopped improving yet. She certainly looks an interesting proposition for the Queen Mary Stakes.
KEW GREEN TOUGH TO BEAT IN WOLFERTON STAKES KEW GREEN (40) has improved massively since having a major operation on his back. He won for the third time in a row when taking the valuable tote sport Suffolk stakes over the Cambridgeshire course and distance at Newmarket. His next target is apparently the Wolferton Stakes at York's Royal meeting. That race is only Listed class and I had Kew Green running a Group 2 time here, so he's clearly going to be hard to peg back.
BADDAM IS A DECENT YOUNG STAYER BADDAM (36) improved tremendously for a big step up in distance when winning a three year old handicap at Nottingham. I imagine he'll take a big hike in the official ratings for this, but if I'm right he's still going to be eligible for races well below his true class. That means this promising young stayer could easily set up a sequence of wins.
ELEMENT OF TRUTH A PATTERN CLASS FILLY Luca Cumani's horses usually come on for their racecourse debut, so ELEMENT OF TRUTH (35) is probably a very smart filly to have scored in fast time at the first time of asking. She took a hot Newmarket maiden in seriously fast time, earning a bigger speed rating from me than most winners of fillies' classic trials to date. I can see Element Of Truth proving competitive at the highest level. Certainly she ought to be able to win a Listed race at least soon.
LAWAAHEB IS WAY BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS LAWAAHEB (35) ran a remarkably fast time for the class when winning a selling hurdle at Fakenham. His trainer says that he was big and weak but has now started to progress physically. This certainly seems to be true from the form he's showing, so it was pretty amazing his connections were able to retain him for as less than ten grand at the auction after the race. I doubt that they'll be running him with a sales tag on his head again any time soon. In fact the plan is apparently to put him away till the Autumn. When he returns I'd bet on him being able to exploit his ludicrously low official mark whether he races over hurdles or on the flat. He'll almost certainly offer serious betting value too as punters invariably under-rate even the best selling race winners when they step up in class to normal handicaps.
FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND CAN RUN FASTER I wasn't surprised that FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND (38) won the 2,000 Guineas. I rated him the fastest two year old of last season and predicted he'd win the race in this column last November. What I did find surprising however was the relatively slow time that he ran. I awarded Footstepsinthesand a speed rating of 40 for his best run of last season and expected him to equal or better it at Newmarket. I suspect the reasons he didn't were (a) there was simply nothing that pressed him hard enough and (b) quite a few of his rivals, notably Dubawi, may well have not acted on the lightning fast ground. The going was literally as fast as it could be for the Guineas. The surface could have been harder but it had reached the point beyond which it is impossible to speed the runners up any further. Sectional times reveal that Footstepsinthesand took almost 13 seconds to run the final furlong. This suggests strongly to me that he was idling in front. For a horse as good as Footstepsinthesand, 13 seconds is very close to what I call its plodding rate (i.e. the speed a horse travels when it is run out of gas or simply coasting). Footstepsinthesand is obviously going to take some stopping when he bids for the Irish 2000 Guineas next time out. I certainly wouldn't fancy the second or third, Rebel Rebel (37) and Kandidate (36) to turn the tables. My ratings suggest they are simply not up to classic standard and only placed here because so many horses ran below form on the hard ground.
VIRGINIA WATERS AN ABOVE AVERAGE A000 GUINEAS WINNER The going was slightly slower for the 1,000 Guineas than the colt's classic due to a bit of overnight rain and some watering of the track. But VIRGINIA WATERS (38) was only two fifths of a second off Footstepsinthesand's time and earned the same speed rating from me for her performance. If she were mine I wouldn't be bothering with any experiments at longer trips right now. Races such as the Irish 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes over a mile look much more attractive targets. Virginia Waters is slightly faster than the average 1000 Guineas winner according to my ratings and bettered the best rating I've awarded a three year old filly so far this season by a point. The horse that set that benchmark was VISTA BELLA (35) who ran a bit slower here but had plenty of excuses as she ran a bit green and had to be switched for a run before finishing strongly. I doubt that this will be the last Group 1 race Vista Bella places in. In fact if she's supplemented for the Irish 1,000 Guineas I'd be rather interested in her chances. Her trainer, Michael Jarvis, feels that she may well stay a mile and a half. so the Irish Oaks could also be a possibility.
STRIKE UP THE BAND THE FASTEST JUVENILE SO FAR STRIKE UP THE BAND (33) blasted home by seven lengths on his debut at Pontefract. In doing so he bettered the top rating I've awarded a two year old in Britain, Ireland or France so far this season. Clearly he is a very fast early youngster. Indeed, trainer Dandy Nicholls says he's the fastest two year old he's ever trained. This being so I'd be wary of betting against Strike Up The Band in the immediate future. Whether he'll stay beyond five furlongs is open to question, but there are plenty of good races for him over the minimum distance as a two year old.
ANDRONIKOS IS VERY SMART ANDRONIKOS (38) was one of the best two year olds of last season according to my speed ratings and showed that he's still very smart with a Listed win in fast time at Lingfield. He was cut back to six furlongs because he'd pulled hard in the Greenham and failed to get home. But jockey Frankie Dettori feels he's worth another try over seven, and so do I. Andronkos shouldn't have any problems getting seven furlongs on pedigree and he'll almost certainly settle better and last the trip with more experience. It's certainly a far better idea to step him up to seven than to stay at six in terms of placing him to win again. He'd have to take on older horses to win at six furlongs, and there are plenty of older sprinters faster than Andronikos even in class C contests. But at seven furlongs he could shoot for races like the Jersey stakes against his own age group where he'd be one of the fastest horses in the line up. Runner-up Yajbill (37) is also very useful but seems much less likely to stay longer trips or even attempt them. His next entry is in fact in the five furlong Group 2 Temple Stakes at Sandown. He'd have a great chance in that race if it were restricted to three year olds, but against the smart older sprinters in Britain I don't hold out much hope for him.
NOTABLE GUEST ONE TO NOTE The dogs were barking about NOTABLE GUEST (39) before the first race at Newmarket on 2,000 Guineas day, and he duly dotted up in remarkable time. Clearly, trainer Sir Michael Stoute is right to say the horse has improved markedly over the winter. My ratings say he is now a Group class runner. The remarkable thing about this is that he's still eligible for handicaps. This being so I'd be looking for Notable Guest to take down one of the more valuable handicaps in the next month or two.
HIGH ACTION CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP HIGH ACTION (39) ran the fastest time on 1000 Guineas day at Newmarket when taking a hot mile and a half handicap. His trainer says he is best on fast ground and this is certainly borne out by his record. He told reporters that last year they fancied him for the Ebor and the Cezarewitch but that the ground went against them. If it stays firm this year I can see High Action taking one of those races. Runner-up MOCCA (38) is a useful filly who has already placed in Listed company. I can see her winning at that level sometime this term. In fact I suspect she'd have an easier time scoring in Listed races against her own sex rather than taking on smart older males in good handicaps like this one. RINGSIDER (38) finished a close third and looks set to win soon. He didn't perform well at Nad Al Sheba during the Winter but otherwise has run one good race after another on fast ground.
CORRIDOR CREEPER SMART IN SMALL FIELDS CORRIDOR CREEPER (40) is one of a whole slew of older British sprinters that can run Group class times. He did so again when winning at Goodwood the other day and I only mention it because of the fascinating pattern now developing in his form. The record shows that Corridor Creeper has now won the last three times he's run in fields of ten or less but lost the last 29 times he's contested races with more runners. I imagine Corridor Creeper will be running in plenty more sprint handicaps with huge fields in the near future (his trainer mentioned the Vodafone Dash at Epsom as his next target). But he'll be at his most interesting from a betting standpoint when he returns to a conditions race like this one where he faces only a handful of rivals. INDIAN TRAIL AND BALTIC KING ARE GROUP CLASS INDIAN TRAIL (41) broke the course record when winning a valuable six furlong handicap at Newmarket's Guineas meeting. In doing so he was winning for the third time in three starts on fast ground at trips short of seven furlongs. If he sticks to handicap company and gets his ground I find it hard to see him getting beat at shorter trips like this. He's actually fast enough to win a Group 2 sprint according to my ratings. BALTIC KING (41) ran a big race to go under by just a neck. This was actually the third time in his career that Baltic King has earned a big Group class speed rating from me. His run here certainly validated his trainer's opinion that his charge is best on firm ground on a track with an uphill finish. Indeed, if he gets his ground at Sandown I'd rate Baltic King the horse they all have to beat in the Temple Stakes at the end of this month.
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