HOH MIKE DOES IT AGAIN

HOH MIKE (38) confirmed his position as much the fastest two year old we've seen this year with another win at Windsor, this time on much softer ground. Again he clocked what I rate a Group 1 time for a juvenile.

Hoh Mike now goes straight for the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Obviously he'll be much the fastest runner in that contest. My one concern is that he's now run very fast two times in a row and only has four weeks to recover before his next race. I'd be much happier if it were five. I know from experience that it's quite possible for a horse to regress off a run this fast if it isn't rested for longer than a month. And two back to back efforts such as those Hoh Mike has just run are even more likely to knock a horse off form. Countering this is the fact that Hoh Mike is a two year old and many two year olds do things they're never able to do as older horses.

Putting it in betting terms, I'd be betting Hoh Mike if he's 2-1 or better for the Norfolk Stakes, and I'd be thinking hard about laying him if he's much shorter than that. But if he does 'bounce' at Royal Ascot I'd be looking for Hoh Mike to 'bounce back' and take a Group 1 race before the season is over.

LORD CHARLES (36) ran his best race to date, staying on well to pull well clear of the rest. I suspect it was the yielding ground which brought about the improvement - not necessarily because he prefers cut in the ground but because it made the race a greater test of stamina. A step up to six or even seven furlongs no looks like a smart move for Lord Charles who now ranks as a solid Royal Ascot candidate.

SONNY RED NOT SO SMART

Sonny Red (35) won the Baker Till Trophy at Goodwood. But the time he ran indicates he would have been hammered by Hoh Mike a few days earlier if he hadn't been withdrawn after being declared at the overnight stage. He won't be able to avoid Hoh Mike and other smart juveniles for much longer, so I'd say his winning run has probably ended. Faster two year olds are going to start running now.

RED ROCKS BEGINS TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING

RED ROCKS (39) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old so far this season when winning the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket. He'd have been an interesting contender in the Derby on this showing and looks to have a great chance in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Trainer Brian Meehan says Red Rocks has improved from last year. He's won both his races this season so far and might well be very good indeed. Certainly he can win a Group 2 at least.

SPECTAIT SIR MARK'S FASTEST HORSE SINCE PASTERNAK

Sir Mark Prescott loves to win valuable handicaps. And he looks set to take another one with SPECTAIT (40) who earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me when running away with a class 4 handicap on the Polytrack at Kempton.

Spectait lost a couple of races at two but looked likely to maintain his unbeaten record as a three year old when cruising up to the leaders in a race last August. But he then hung badly and only managed fourth. Clearly something went wrong with him physically that day as he didn't run afterwards in 2005. Whatever it was has obviously been fixed though.

Spectait is the fastest horse Sir Mark Prescott has trained since Pasternak according to my speed ratings. Pasternak won him the Cambridgeshire and the Magnet Cup, and I imagine Sir Mark has his eye on something similar for Spectait.

PRIDE OF NATION SHOULD WIN A BIG RACE

PRIDE OF NATION (40) ran a very fast time to take a hotly contested mile handicap at Haydock. He ran second on his first couple of starts but has been unbeaten in three runs since.

My speed ratings indicate that Pride Of Nation is improving with every run. Here he ran fast enough to win a Group 2. But I imagine his trainer, Luca Cumani will want to keep Pride Of Nation to handicap company for now as there are some seriously big prizes he could win.

IMPERIALISTIC IS SMART IN A SMALL FIELD

The most common pattern you'll find in the form of racehorses is something I call 'the small field syndrome'. Horses that conform to the pattern almost never win in fields of 12 or more - except occasionally on straight courses where the field splits.

IMPERIALISTIC (39) is a classic example of the small field syndrome. She blasted home in fast time at Catterick to take a class t2 handicap in a time that would win many Group races. She has now won all three times she's run in races with fields of 11 or less at seven furlongs or shorter on yielding or softer ground. She's in foal and will probably only manage one or two more runs, but if she can be found an appropriate spot she'll be able to earn some black type before retiring.

HOW GOOD IS BLUE MONDAY?

Form book comments can usually identify slow run races. In such contests you'll usually find that one or more of the runners pulled hard in the early stages and that another couple got outpaced three or four furlongs out but then stayed on again. This is a clear sign that the early pace was slow and that the field accelerated and it's exactly what seems to have happened in the Listed festival Stakes at Goodwood.

Normally when there's a slow early pace the winner's speed rating is at least three or four points lower than it would have been in a true run race. So the performance of BLUE MONDAY (38) in earning a Group 3 class speed rating despite the pace is noteworthy.

Blue Monday beat MOUNTAIN HIGH (36) into second place, and that one had earned a Group 1 speed rating from me on his latest outing. The horse that ran third was multiple Group 1 placed Italian import VOL DE NUIT (34).

If I use lines of form rather than the time of the race I can justify a rating of around 44 for Blue Monday, and that is good enough to take a big international Group 1.

Of course it's perfectly possible I'm reading too much into all this. It could be that Mountain High didn't act on the soft ground and that Vol De Nuit needed his first run of the season like so many of Cumani's horses. But the fact is Blue Monday has now won all five times he's run less than a mile and a half when he's had a run within the last five weeks. I'm inclined to believe that he's a Group 1 horse and can run faster than I've been able to rate him for this run.

POLAR MAGIC LOOKS INTERESTING

POLAR MAGIC (37) earned a Listed class speed rating from me to win a decent seven furlong handicap at Goodwood. He can win in pattern company or take a big handicap on this showing, and I suspect it will be on a tight track like this one. Polar Magic would have won all five times he's run on a track with tight turns but for running green and losing by a head on his second start. He's lost all five times he's run on galloping courses.

SMART ENOUGH LIVES UP TO HIS NAME

SMART ENOUGH (36) won a Goodwood maiden in very decent time. In ding so he franked the form of BOLD ALASKA, the horse he'd run second to at Newmarket.

Bold Alaska almost certainly failed to handle soft ground on his next outing but Smart Enough sploshed through the mud here to run just as fast as he had at Newmarket.

I suspect that the handicapper is going to let Smart Enough off with a mark in the mid 80's for this. And that makes him look a very attractive proposition for handicaps.

SPIERS PEACE BETTER THAN A HUNTER CHASER

Hunter Chases are normally desperately slow affairs fought out by once smart chasers that are past their sell-by date. But one exception was the United Hunts Open Champion Hunter's Chase at Folkestone in which the seven year old SPIERS PEACE (36) to the smart but now retiring 13 year old Bright Approach (36).

The last horse as young as Spiers Peace to place in this race was Once Stung who went on to win 13 hunter chases and ended up finishing fourth in the Aintree Foxhunters. My speed ratings suggest that Spiers Peace is going to do at least as well. Indeed, I suspect he'll be purchased by an owner from one of the big jumping yards and we'll see him race outside of hunter-chases before long. Whatever happens he should be worth following.

SEPTIMUS DOES THE JOB

I've been wurbling on about SEPTIMUS (36) for ages, so it would have been somewhat embarrassing if he hadn't won the Dante Stakes. Thankfully he did, and by eight lengths as well. Unfortunately, thanks to a relatively modest early pace, Septimus didn't end up running as fast as he had last time out in France or even as a two year old. The field only picked up the pace from 6f out when they hit the better ground.

Still you can hardly complain about a runaway win in the most important Derby Trial of them all.

I think Kieran Fallon was being diplomatic about Coolmore's other three year old colts when he told reporters after the race that he would now face a difficult choice about which one to ride in the Derby. It seems to me that if you have the choice between a doubtful stayer that ran unplaced in the Guineas, a winner of a sub-par Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and an eight length winner of the race that's produced the last two Derby winners you don't exactly need to think very hard.

As I see it, the Derby has boiled down to a match between Visindar and Septimus. Other horses will run of course but it's hard to fancy them against this pair.

HOH MIKE IS A GROUP 1 JUVENILE

HOH MIKE (38) put up a sensational performance to lower the juvenile track record for five furlongs at Windsor. The old track record was set by Bad As I Wanna Be, and that horse went on to win a Group 1 race on his very next outing. Hoh Mike is also a Group 1 horse according to my speed ratings and looks a slam dunk to win the National Stakes next time. It would take a freakishly fast rival to beat him at Royal Ascot after that. Raceform note that Hoh Mike has "plenty of size and substance to him" which normally means he'll train on to be a decent three year old. They also note that he's built to stay further. This makes sense as his dam is from Vinnie Roe's family.

I can't recall ever giving a two year old a speed rating this big so early in the season. So I have to say Hoh Mike is something special and should not be opposed. He is going to win something like the Middle Park Stakes or the Prix Morny on this showing. But whether it will be for his present connections only time will tell. After an obviously brilliant performance like this his owner's phone must be ringing off the hook with offers from the big stables.

SCENTED PRESENT (34) set the pace that enabled Hoh Mike to lower the course record and beat the rest of the field by six lengths. He's probably at least Listed class and may actually be a bit better than that.

HOME AFFAIRS IS SMART

In the past I've knocked HOME AFFAIRS (40) as being one of the greatest 'but for' horses in recent years. Until last week he'd lost all five pattern races he'd contested and only placed in one of them. But many argued he would have gone close in the Prix Jean Prat 'but for' the bit slipping through his mouth, that he would have finished nearer to Proclamation 'but for' the distance being too short, that he would have run well against Layman 'but for' some unreported physical problem that required a seven week lay-off, and that he would have run well on his seasonal debut 'but for' the soft ground.

This time there were no excuses. Home Affairs was taken straight to the lead, made all the running at a good pace and beat MOMTIC (38), a horse that has earned Group 2 class speed ratings from me on five occasions in the last year.

On this run Home Affairs is a couple of lengths shy of Group 1 class. But I imagine he's going to be given another shot at that level judged by his entry in the Queen Anne Stakes. I'd bet on him losing there and wait till he's dropped down to Group 2 or lower class to start following him when he gets the fast ground he seems to need.

Momtic showed here that he can adapt to the smaller fields of pattern races. And seeing how often he's run fast times in a variety of circumstances I suspect he's going to win a Group race before Home Affairs does. He's run a couple of lengths faster than this a few times and I'd bet he'll do so again as he continues to adapts to the very different demands of pattern races.

SOLENT IS A GROUP RACER IN THE MAKING

SOLENT (39) ran a time that would win many Group 2 races when taking a red hot handicap on the Lockinge card at Newbury. He's a quirky horse that seems to get himself into traffic problems a lot. It may well be that he's at his best in small fields on flat tracks like Newbury. He's won three of the last four times he's run in single figure fields on flat tracks. If he were mine I'd forget about trying to win handicaps with him and shoot for Group races where the field sizes tend to be smaller.

Runner-up CASTLE HOWARD (37) was a decent runner in Tierce handicaps over in France. He benefits from the fact that the handicap ratings for frequent Tierce handicap runners are kept artificially low to ensure they can continue to run in such contests. He ought to be able to win something decent off his advantageous mark.

LOOK AGAIN CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

Blue Spinnaker (40) earned a Group 2 speed rating from me when taking a very strongly run ten furlong handicap at York. The thing is he does appear a bit difficult to win with as he needs a very strong early pace, and that's not always forthcoming.

Runner-up LOOK AGAIN (40) looks a better prospect to me. He's won or finished a very close second to a smart horse every time he's raced on what I rated genuinely good or softer ground. If he gets his ground he looks a good bet to take the Vodafone Rose Bowl handicap at Epsom's Derby meeting. Certainly I'd expect him to win a big handicap at some point this season.

PEERESS WINS A SUB-PAR LOCKINGE

The Lockinge is often one of the weakest Group 1's of the season. And that looked to be the case again this year as the winner Peeress (40) only ran a Group 2 time. Peeress is clearly at her best with cut in the ground, having won the last three times she's run on officially good to soft or softer going, including in two Group 1 races. However I think she'll be hard pressed to win at the top level again.

BABY STRANGE NOT JUST AN EARLY SEASON JUVENILE

BABY STRANGE (34) earned a Listed class speed rating when winning easily on his racecourse debut at Bath. There's a bit of stamina in his pedigree and he ran a good deal faster here than the average early season 2YO winner. So I rather suspect he's going to still be winning races even when the distances run by juveniles lengthen and the better youngsters start appearing.

ENGLISH CITY WAY BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS

The connections of ENGLISH CITY (33) were lucky that the selling race their horse won at Redcar was only the second race on the card and the first on the round course. If it had been run later potential bidders at the post-race auction would have realized that he ran the fastest time of the day - quite some feat for a three year old selling race winner this early in the year. As it was, remarkably, there was 'no bid for the winner'.

English City had been running over sprint trips before this run and clearly appreciated the step up to ten furlongs. He should win much better races than this. And, as a half brother to a winning hurdler, he looks pretty interesting for juvenile hurdles later on this year.

The connections of ELITE LAND (32) were rather lucky to keep their horse too. It's rare that a horse as good as English City runs in selling company, and without him Elite City would have been an eight length winner. This would almost certainly have ensured a lively bidding session at the subsequent auction.

In any event both the winner and the second look good bets to win against better company than this soon. Each is incredibly well handicapped.

COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS SMART

COLLATERAL DAMAGE (38) ran a Group class time to take a seven furlong handicap at York. He's clearly a smart three year old when he gets a bit of cut in the ground and will surely be winning better races than this before the season is over.

SHORT DANCE HAS A SHOT IN THE IRISH 1000 GUINEAS

The emergence of one fast three year old filly this week in Galatee makes me wary of assuming that the dearth of fast three year old fillies will continue. But while it does one now has to consider SHORT DANCE (37) a real contender for the Irish Guineas after she won a York Listed race by a dozen lengths.

In a normal year I'd rate Short Dance no better than a Listed to Group 3 performer. However it's getting a bit late for a large number of top class three year old fillies to emerge, so I've got to concede she's capable of winning in Group 1 company.

BOLD ALASKA IS VERY SMART

BOLD ALASKA (38) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a racecourse debutante in years when taking a hot maiden race at Newmarket over a mile. Clearly this is a very smart three year old indeed. But I'd be very dubious about the idea mooted by his owner's racing manager that he'll get further than a mile. His sire was a miler. His dam was a sprinter, and the seven wins scored by her other progeny to date have all been over six furlongs or less.

In any event I'd be looking for Bold Alaska to develop into a Group winner over a mile and would not want to oppose him over the distance next time.

Runner-up SMART ENOUGH (36) looks a good prospect. He'd be a cert to win a maiden and should progress to earning black type after that.

SINDIRANA HAS A REAL CHANCE IN THE OAKS

I predicted that FUSILI (37) would win an Oaks Trial back in March after she'd run a string of pattern class times on the All Weather. And she came heartbreakingly close when a very game neck second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. She pulled clear of the third while engaging in a prolonged duel with the winner SINDIRANA (37) over the last quarter mile. Only a really useful horse can sustain or withstand a challenge for that long, so I wasn't at all surprised to discover that this race was run in faster time than the Derby Trial and turned put to be the quickest on a card of classy races.

The pundits seem to generally be under-rating the performance of Sindirana because they can't believe a 'mere handicapper' like Fusili that's run 20 times could be that fast. But my speed ratings say she is. I do hope Sindirana's connections give her a chance to run in the Oaks as she's only a smidge behind the fastest middle distance filly we've seen so far this season (Time On) and her trainer says she should improve significantly for this run. I say she has a real chance in the Oaks and that the runner-up is going to win a Listed or Group race for fillies soon.

IVY CREEK MAY WELL BE A GROUP 1 HORSE

IVY CREEK (38) earned a good Group class speed rating from me when winning a hot conditions race at Sandown. And he equaled it when losing the Dee Stakes most unluckily. He surely would have run a bit quicker if he'd only got a clear run. So he now starts lo look very interesting indeed.

Ivy Creek will apparently not be supplemented for the Derby. But he'll surely be given a shot at a Group 1 race in one of his next two or three starts. And when he is I'd give him careful consideration. He might easily be good enough to score at the top level.

It's hard to fault the winner ART DECO (38). He would still be unbeaten in three starts but for a narrow loss to the useful City Of Troy in a sprint as a two year old. He pulled seven lengths clear of the rest of the field while dueling with Ivy Creek, and it takes a smart horse to do that at this level. Still, he should only have been second and there remain must some doubt about his ability to get the Derby distance given his pedigree. So on balance I doubt that he's going to feature prominently at Epsom, and I suspect he's Group 2 class at best.

PAPAL BULL NOT BAD AT ALL

There was nothing wrong with the time that PAPAL BULL (38) clocked to win the Chester Vase. It was only a second off the record set by the top class Old Vic. He's now won his last three races and might well progress enough to become a Group 1 performer. My gut feel is that he won't, but it's too hard to tell at this stage.

Runner-up DRAGON DANCER (38) ran a good race considering that he carried his head a bit high and clearly has some learning to do. He'd run second to Dante hopeful Hala-Bek in the Peter Smith Memorial maiden on his last run. And it's worth bearing in mind that the last two times the first and second from the Peter Smith Memorial both contested Derby Trials it proved to be a hot race. It happened in 1999 when Salford City and Peshtigo went on to win the Dante and Chester Vase. And it happened again in 2000 when Millenary and Windsor Boy went on to run 1-2 again in the Chester Vase. The thing to bear in mind is that the Peter Smith Memorial tends to go to a late-maturing horse. So I'd bet on both Hala-Bek and Dragon Dancer not being ready to run their very best till the Autumn.

LINDA'S LAD PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR EPSOM

This season my speed ratings say that all the fastest three year old colts we've seen over middle distances so far have been French. There are simply a ludicrous number of Derby and Prix du Jockey Club candidates over there. The French Derby Trials have been overflowing with talent. This being so it's not surprising that we should see the first French runner in a British Derby Trial since Toulon won the Chester Vase way back in 1991. The French runner in question is LINDA'S LAD (34) who won the Lingfield Derby Trial.

The early pace at Lingfield was slow, so the final time does not represent the real ability of Linda's Lad. It's possible he'll prove good enough for Epsom, but he'd never earned better than a rating of 37 from me before which is basically borderline Group 2 for an early season 3YO colt. So I'm tending towards the idea that he's not going to be quite good enough for Epsom.

I know it's tempting to try and find some sort of meaning in Derby Trials like this. But I have to say that at this stage we simply haven't seen a really fast Derby Trial in either Britain or Ireland. There invariably is one though, and I'm betting it will be the Dante. The Dante is usually a fast race, and it's produced the last two Derby winners. The way things are going I'd say the big York race may well be going to make it three in a row this year. Of course I'll be rooting for Septimus to win at York to confirm what my speed ratings have been saying all along: He's the best three year old middle distance colt in Britain or Ireland.

TIME ON DIDN'T HAVE TO RUN FAST THIS TIME

TIME ON (32) confirmed her status as one of the top fillies in Europe with a three length win in the Cheshire Oaks. She'd earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me on her previous outing but didn't have to run that fast this time. Her rider, Frankie Dettori, set a fairly slow pace on her and steadily wound it up.

Time On's connections now have to decide whether to supplement her for the Oaks. That's beginning to look a pretty good idea right now. After all she's just proven that she stays and this is beginning to look a weak year for middle distance 3YO fillies.

ORCADIAN MAY BE CRAZY BUT HE'S SMART

I confess that I have a soft spot for loony but smart horses like Holy Orders and Orcadian. I see it as a challenge to figure out just what makes them run brilliantly one day and deplorably another.

I confess that I've never quite got to grips with Holy Orders. But I thought I'd gained some measure of understanding of ORCADIAN (38) before he ran in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester last week. And if my analysis was right I reckoned he was a certainty.

My read of Orcadian was based on a comment from his trainer that he would 'spook at anything'. I figured that he was less likely to spook on a tight course like Chester because he'd be too busy thinking about negotiating the bends to get distracted by what was going on around him. Orcadian's record backed me up as he'd won two times out of three on tight courses before and was a good third over a hopelessly inadequate trip in a Listed race in his sole loss. The fact that there was a tiny field for the Ormonde Stakes boosted my confidence further as it meant there'd be fewer distractions from his competitors.

Things looked good early on as Orcadian surged into a big lead but he then started to hang badly right on the bends and finally decided it was time to pull himself up with five furlongs to run. His jockey managed to get him going again eventually and he came back to lose by just half a length. He ran a Group 3 class time in the process and one is left wondering just how fast he might have run if he'd behaved.

Now I can see another little wrinkle I'm going to have to add to my analysis of Orcadian. He not only prefers tight tracks but also likes them to turn right-handed. His two previous wins on tight courses were at right-handed Market Rasen and at figure-of-eight Windsor, where the all-important home turn is taken right-handed. He's also won at Newbury, where the home turn is bigger and wider than on any other left-handed track, but outside of that course I'm going to be distrustful of Orcadian when he goes left-handed.

The obvious race that comes to mind for Orcadian is the Goodwood Cup. It's run on a tight, right-handed course, and it often cuts up to a small field.

GALIENT STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR QUEEN'S VASE

It's not often that a three year old shows the obvious stamina GALIENT (38) has now exhibited in his two starts this year. He's won both of them in Group class time and is now beginning to look almost a good thing for the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot next month. His latest victory came in an unusually strong mile and a half handicap at Chester's big May meeting. After the race his trainer, Michael Jarvis, quipped that "he would go round again, wouldn't he?"

Logically Galient is going to improve when stepped up to the two miles of the Queen's Vase. So, seeing that he's now twice run quicker than the average winner of that race, I'd be wary of opposing him at the big meeting.

DAYLAMI STAR (37) ran a big race to chase Galient home on his seasonal debut and is obviously a Royal Ascot prospect himself. I imagine his target will be the King George V handicap if he sticks to handicap company. In fact he can win a Listed race on this showing.

CORRIDOR CREEPER STILL HAS IT

Sprinters seem able to hold their best form for years. CORRIDOR CREEPER (40) certainly has. Even though he's now nine, he ran as fast as he ever has to take a hot conditions sprint at Beverley.

The thing about Corridor Creeper is that he seems best in small fields. His wins have come either in races with 11 runners or less or in those where the field has split into two groups. Predicting when a field is going to split is hard, but a good rule of thumb is that it tends to occur when there are 18 runners or more. This being so I'd oppose Corridor Creeper with confidence when there are between 12 and 17 runners. He's lost all 27 times he's run in races with that many runners. In small fields like this though he's good enough to win a Group race.

Runner-up SIERRA VISTA (39) is a very smart sprinting mare who has probably been kept in training in order to win that all-important Listed or Group race that will boost her value as a broodmare massively. If she were mine I'd ship her over to France where the sprinters are a much weaker group than in Britain. She could easily win a Listed or group race over there.

PLUM PUDDING SHOULD GET JUST DESERTS SOON

INGRATITUDE (37) and PLUM PUDDING (37) pulled an amazing dozen lengths clear of their pursuers when going 1-2 in a freakishly strong 3YO handicap at Windsor. At this stage it's hard to say exactly what their preferences are, but clearly both horses have improved for the step up in distance and are pattern class.

This was the first time Ingratitude had run beyond a sprint trip. Even with a penalty he'll still be eligible for races miles below his true class.

Plum Pudding came out again a few days after this and earned the same speed rating from me when destroying a decent field at Newmarket. He and Ingratitude should definitely be followed.

ADMIRAL IS GROUP CLASS

ADMIRAL (39) earned seriously big speed ratings from me on the flat as a three year old. And he showed he's as good as ever when making all the running to take the Chester Cup in Group class time. I think a lot of people are going to under-rate this run and assume Admiral was a lucky winner who stole the race from the front. The clock tells a different story. It suggests he's a Group class horse who is still low enough in the handicap to take another big race like this.

DABBERS RIDGE DOES IT AGAIN

DABBERS RIDGE (39) ran fast enough to win many Group 2 races when scoring at Thirsk in April. And he did so again when taking a Chester handicap by five lengths. He's now won all three times he's had cut in the ground when racing around a turn but has yet to win in half a dozen tries on straight courses, even though he's had the softer ground he requires on three occasions.

The obvious targets for Dabbers Ridge would appear to be the very valuable Totescoop 6 handicap at Sandown and Totesport Mile handicap at Goodwood - both run in July. If he gets yielding or softer ground for either race he'd be very interesting. Hopefully he'll lose a race or two on straight courses or fast ground beforehand. Then we'd get a decent price about him.

BEE STINGER SHOULD WIN AGAIN

It looks like BEE STINGER (36) has been running over the wrong distance. Until last week he'd failed to win in twelve starts over sprint trips. But, stepped up to a mile, he ran away with a low grade handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack to earn a Listed class speed rating from me.

Clearly Bee Stinger is a long way ahead of the handicapper and should be able to follow up on this success without much trouble.

MOUNTAIN HIGH IS A GROUP 1 HORSE

MOUNTAIN HIGH (42) equaled the biggest speed rating I've awarded beyond a sprint trip in Europe this season when winning a hot little conditions race on the 2000 Guineas card at Newmarket.

Last year Mountain High started 11-10 favourite for the King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal meeting. He probably had some problem in that race as he was off for four months afterwards and only managed one subsequent start in 2005. Now this once highly touted horse has arrived back with a bang. Just as last year he's now entered up in a string of Group 1 races, starting with the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. He looks like Sir Michael Stoute's best horse this year on my ratings and I give him a great chance of scoring at the highest level.

MINORITY REPORT IS INCREDIBLY WELL HANDICAPPED

MINORITY REPORT (41) is the sort of horse trainer's dream about - a Group racer that has a low handicap mark. He won the Thirsk Hunt Cup in extraordinarily fast time and must have a serious chance of winning the Royal Hunt Cup and other big before he's forced to race in pattern company where he belongs.

Runner-up FLIPANDO (40) also ran really fast and looks well worth following. He too will surely take a big handicap soon.

KALANKIRI IS GROUP CLASS

I awarded a pattern class speed rating to KALANKIRI (38) when he ran second in a red hot handicap on the Polytrack at Lingfield. And he improved on that with a runaway win on the same surface at Kempton.

Trainer Andrew Balding says that Kalankiri improved because he preferred the longer homestraight and stronger gallop. He added that he intended to aim Kalankiri at a valuable series of turf races in America. Actually American turf races invariably develop into a sprint up the homestraight which is usually very short. So I'm not sure how well Kalankiri will adapt. Nonetheless he earned a speed rating from me here that's at least as good as even the very best US turf three year old in a normal year. Therefore I'd still be interested in his chances in the States. Meanwhile I'd say there's a valuable handicap or pattern race to be won with Kalankiri at home.

ASSERTIVE IS SERIOUSLY FAST

ASSERTIVE (40) earned a huge speed rating for an early season three year old to take a Listed sprint at Lingfield. I concede there are dozens of older sprinters around that have run as fast. But Assertive clearly has more potential for improvement than them. So I wouldn't dismiss his connections plan of running him in the Golden Jubilee as a fantasy. He's the fastest three year old sprinter we've seen this year according to my ratings.

GEORGE WASHINGTON THE SLOWEST GUINEAS WINNER IN YEARS

The horses with the lowest official ratings finished third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the Guineas. So it's hardly surprising that the winner George Washington (38) earned a remarkably low speed rating for his victory.

The going was officially good to firm, firm in places, and the times of the other races back that up. The early pace in the Guineas was strong according to the sectional times, so there's no excuse for the slow final time. It resulted from the fact that George Washington backed right up in the last furlong which he took over 12.9 seconds to run. That is remarkably slow for this course and distance. For example back in 1970 Nijinsky reportedly ran the last furlong of the Guineas in 10.9 seconds.

My speed ratings indicate that George Washington beat a bunch of rivals here that were either unfit, slow or non-stayers. I say forget the hype. This is a slow horse that should be opposed relentlessly from now on.

Sir Percy (36) ran horribly slow to finish second, just ahead of all the long shots. The idea of making him Derby favourite is a complete joke as far as I'm concerned.

SPECIOSA DOES IT AGAIN

I whittered on at length about SPECIOSA (38) after she'd won the Nell Gwyn Stakes in fast time. I don't really have much to add now that she's won the 1000 Guineas. She again veered across the track and earned exactly the same speed rating from me. This run marks her out as pretty smart but I dare say she's going to be beaten a few times before the season is ended. There are normally quite a few three year old fillies around that can run as fast as her.

IVY CREEK LOOKING GOOD FOR DEE STAKES

IVY CREEK (38) clocked what I rate a solid group class time to take a hot little conditions race at Sandown. He's won both his starts to date and looks an unusually strong contender for the Dee Stakes at Chester. Indeed, I rate him faster than the average winner of that race.

Runner-up TELL (38) looks equally promising. He was a bit backward according to Raceform and should improve for what was his seasonal debut. I wouldn't dismiss his chances in the Irish 2000 Guineas lightly.

Third-placed WEST OF AMARILLO (37) was most unlucky to come up against two smart Group racers in a race like this. He looks a sure fire winner around Listed class soon.

HEARTHSTEAD WINGS SHOWS MAJOR IMPROVEMENT

HEARTHSTEAD WINGS (39) won in Listed company and placed in a Group 1 at two but only won an ordinary handicap from eleven starts last year. However he roared back to his best to score in a time that would win many Group 2 races on his four year old debut.

Trainer Mark Johnston has a great record in Cup races, and it looks like he's got himself a very decent candidate for such races here.

Runner-up PALOMAR (38) ran a good race on his first UK start and looks capable of taking a Listed race or an ordinary Group 3.

ETLAALA AGAIN

I gave ETLAALA (37) a rave review for his last run where he earned the biggest speed rating of the season from me. But I warned that he wasn't as fast on a slower surface. And so it proved when he encountered going that was actually just a bit slower than good at Leicester. He won all right, taking his record to four from four at seven furlongs on good or faster ground. But he ran nothing like as fast.

It seems pretty clear now that Etlaala must have it really quick to produce his best. Then again, fast ground is the norm for the next few months, so Etlaala ought to be able to make hay while the sun shines. At seven furlongs on fast ground I still wouldn't oppose him.

TOP SEED BACK TO HIS BEST

TOP SEED (38) placed in Group company at two and three but then proceeded to finish out of the first four in 18 consecutive starts. However he showed signs of a revival off an eight month break on his seasonal debut and has now gone and run as fast as ever to take a hot little class 4 handicap at Bath.

Top Seed was stopping in his races (he actually had to be pulled up twice) and exhibited respiratory distress at least once. This is crucial because it almost certainly pinpoints the reason for Top Seed's sudden revival. I'd take long odds-on that he's had a 'tie-back' breathing operation.

When you see a near miraculous return to form like this, it's usually the result of a tie back operation. Sometimes such operations are totally successful. But even when they are the effects often wear off after a few months. I'd still treat Top Seed as a horse with a breathing problem. That means I'd be wary of betting him at the giant two mile ovals of Doncaster and Newbury where he's stopped badly three of the last four times. The turns on these courses are so easy that they don't force the horses to slow down to negotiate them as on other tracks. They allow a strong gallop to build up throughout which can cause problems for a horse that literally 'needs a breather' more than others. I'd be very cautious about betting Top Seend on a steeply undulating track like Epsom too as horses with breathing problems prefer a steady and constant demand on their breathing rather than a varying one. Most of all, despite his previous preference for it, I'd avoid betting Top Seed on soft ground. Soft ground puts a major strain on a horse's breathing.

Having said all that, I have to be optimistic about Top Seed's immediate prospects. After all, he's just run a Group 3 class time in a class 4 handicap. Even with a big penalty he's still going to be incredibly well handicapped and eligible for races well below his true class.

I'd like to see Top Seed run at the Chester May meeting, where dead flat track, tight turns, short run-in and likely fast ground will ensure the absolute minimum stress on his breathing. But wherever he goes next I'd think long and hard about opposing him.

Runner-up PRINCE VECTOR (36) was unlucky to come up against such a fast horse at this level. This was his seasonal debut and he showed marked improvement on his form of last year. He'll be very tough to beat next time if he remains in this class.

PRIDE OF NATION SHOULD SCORE AGAIN

PRIDE OF NATION (36) won a Bath handicap in a time that suggests he's capable of winning something better. Unfortunately he won very easily and earned rave reviews so you're unlikely to get rich betting him next time.

ZOWINGTON SMART WHEN FRESH

ZOWINGTON (39) won a hot sprint handicap at Epsom in Group class time. This is not exactly that uncommon in Britain where there are literally hundreds of sprinters fast enough to win Group races in other countries. But I think the performance is worth noting because Zowington is still lightly raced and has a clear pattern to his form that suggests potential for improvement. The pattern is that he has now won all three times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more.

Normally horses that are best fresh do well on their first two starts of the season and then require a break of five weeks plus. It could be that Zowington is different, but that would place him in a very small minority (about 5%) of such horses. So, since this was his seasonal debut, I'd bet on him still running to his best when he goes for a valuable handicap at Newmarket's Guineas meeting next time/

FANTAISISTE CAN WIN A PATTERN RACE

FANTAISISTE (39) is in foal and, like so many mares in foal, has been showing improved form this season. She took a sprint on Kempton's Polytrack in Group class time.

So far Fantaisiste has been very consistent at six furlongs, having reached the first two five times out of six. Her big goal now is to win a Listed race which will boost the value of herself and her foal massively. My ratings say she's more than capable of doing that. Just stick her in two or three Listed races over six furlongs and she's almost sure to win at least one of them.

EMPRESS JAIN SHOULD WIN MORE RACES

EMPRESS JAIN (37) ran a seriously fast time for a three year old filly to take a Yarmouth Handicap. The trouble is she did it over five furlongs, a distance over which there are simply stacks of fast horses in Britain. Nonetheless, against her own age group, Empress Jain is surely going to win more races over the minimum distance soon.

LACDOUDAL NOT FAR OFF THE BEST

French bred jumpers have a rotten record at marathon distances. So it's amazing to record that horses bred in France filled the first four places in the Betfred Gold Cup over 3m 5f.

The winner was LACDOUDAL (40) who I noted here when he won in fast time over the course in December. He showed real stamina that day and when running on like a train over an inadequate distance at the Cheltenham Festival. I suspect he'd run more consistently if kept to really long distances. In fact there are very few horses faster than him over fences at this sort of trip.

ERIC'S CHARM (40) ran a great race to chase the winner home and will surely win a big handicap chase in one of his next few starts. His trainer is convinced he's better jumping right-handed and this seems borne out by his record.

MY WILL (40) is very consistent in terms of speed ratings, having earned ratings between 38 and 40 from me in each of his last four completed starts. It's amazing he's lost nine in a row now, but I reckon he'll make up for lost time next season.

DON'T UNDER-RATE RIVER CITY

I was kicking myself for not picking RIVER CITY (40) after he'd won the valuable Betfair Celebration Chase at 9-1. I knew he had a great record in small fields and also when he was fresh. In fact he's now won six of the seven times he's run over fences in single figure fields (his sole loss was by a neck). And he's also won six of the seven times he's run under NH rules following a break of eight weeks or more since his last completed start.

No doubt River City will lose several more times under unfavourable circumstances. But when he again comes into a race off a break, especially in a small field, I'd want to be betting him.

Runner-up NYRCHE (39) ran another big race, adding weight to my previously expressed theory that he's basically a Spring and Autumn horse.

Arkle winner CONTRABAND (38) was having only his second start in a year and ran a pretty smart race considering. I suspect he's as good as ever and will be winning good races again soon.

BALLYCASSIDY SMART ON FLAT TRACKS

BALLYCASSIDY (38) was six lengths clear and going well when tipping up with six to jump in the Grand National. And he rewarded those who noted him there with a six length win in the Kilmany Cup at the Perth Festival.

It seems clear from his form that Ballycassidy is at his best on relatively flat tracks when the ground is good or faster. He's won going right-handed as he did here, but has jumped left several times. So far he's completed the course on relatively flat, left-handed tracks following a recent run nine times on ground that I rate good or faster - and he won all nine times.

Ballycassidy has won two Grade 2 races and finished second in a Grade 1. He's as good as ever according to my speed ratings and looks set to win something really decent during the next year. His next big target is the valuable chase he won last May at Kelso. But long term he shapes up as a very interesting prospect for next year's Grand National.