ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE DESERVES A SHOT AT A GROUP 1

ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (41) is a very smart performer on good or faster turf around a turn. He won for the sixth time in a row in these circumstances at Goodwood last week, showing great determination and class to catch the very smart front runner ROAD TO LOVE (40).

Both Road To Love and Illustrious Blue have earned borderline Group 1 speed ratings from me in the past and did so again here. Each of them deserves a shot at that level.

I can see why the connections of Illustrious Blue are interested in the idea of stepping him up to twelve furlongs. He always seems to hit a flat spot in his races before getting going late, just as was the case here. However his pedigree and physique look to me like those of a ten furlong horse. So I'll be opposing him if he goes for the Hardwicke Stakes rather than the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. Having said that, this is one of those cases where I might well be wrong. It's a marginal call.

At some point Illustrious Blue looks sure to run in Group 1 company. I just hope it isn't in the Champion Stakes as that race is run on a straight course and often takes place on yielding ground, neither of which would suit Illustrious Blue.

If he were mine I'd be shooting for the Cox Plate in Australia or the Turf Classic in America with Illustrious Blue. The ten furlong turf horses in those countries are some way behind the Europeans, so Illustrious Blue would be hard to beat in either of those valuable races.

The Group 1 race I'd like to see Road To Love shoot for is the Eclipse Stakes as it is run on a right-handed course and invariably takes place on fast ground - both absolute necessities for Road To Love it seems.

The experiment of going shorter trips with Road To Love looked a good idea to me as he has so much early speed. But his failure to win in five starts at less than ten furlongs plus his instant return to form when stepped back up to the longer distance suggests strongly that he needs this distance.

I do hope Road To Love takes up his engagement in the Eclipse. Maybe he'll get caught up the final hill but his record shows that if you let him go clear on a right-handed track on fast ground over the Eclipse trip he’s awfully hard to peg back. I can easily see him winning or placing in the big race at huge odds.

Third-placed IMPERIAL STAR (40) was cruising early in the straight and looked like beating the first two entering the final furlong. But he just got run out of it. Nonetheless this was a seriously good performance as he pulled six lengths clear of the rest and earned a speed rating from me that would take most Group 2 races.

Imperial Star pulled too hard to get home at Newmarket, so clearly he should be avoided there or on other straight courses. Unfortunately he went lame at Leicester, the only other galloping track he’s tried. This means the jury is still out on whether Imperial Star needs a tight course to produce this level of form. I suspect not and regard him as a certain Group winner in the near future.

PRIME DEFENDER ONE OF THE TOP THREE YEAR OLDS

I suggested after he'd won the Free Handicap that PRIME DEFENDER (40) might well improve and develop into a Group 1 performer. He proved me right when taking a red hot renewal of the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock in a time that does indeed indicate he is a Group 1 horse (three year olds being a length or two per mile behind their elders at this stage of the season).

If anyone ever asks you what it means for a horse to have a 'daisy-cutting' stride tell them to watch the video of Prime Defender in this race. His stride is extraordinarily flat, smooth and long. I would be amazed if he ever runs well on anything but fast ground. There's no way an action such as his would ever be suited to yielding or soft.

Prime Defender is a great big beast of a horse who surprised me with how effective he was over six furlongs here. He's got the perfect build for seven furlongs, and I still think he's going to prove best at that distance. If I'm right that means there's more improvement in him yet.

Given this run I can understand why Prime Defender's connections would want to try for the Golden Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup over six furlongs. I'd probably do the same thing myself if I owned the horse. But he'll be facing world class sprinters like Miss Andretti in those races and I just don't think a three year old, at least not a European bred three year old, can beat such horses.

I want to see Prime Defender shoot for the Prix Maurice de Gheest and Prix Foret. Those races, over 6.5 and 7 furlongs offer him the best chance of success at Group 1 level in my opinion, especially the Maurice De Gheest which is invariably run on firm ground and is almost always one of the weakest Group 1's of the entire season.

LION SANDS A ST LEGER CANDIDATE

LION SANDS (37) was a most impressive winner of a strongly run maiden over 12 furlongs at Haydock. He cruised into the lead fully three furlongs out and was going so well his jockey stole a couple of looks back over his shoulder. He ran a bit green in the losing stages but still came away well to win in seriously fast time.

I have no doubt that this handsome colt is going to win in Group company, and that may very well happen next time out as he is in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Seeing how well he stayed on after the searching early pace here and that several of his close relations stayed the Leger trip and beyond, the Doncaster Classic looks the logical target for Lion Sands. He’s certainly an exciting prospect.

PADLOCKED OPENS UP PATTERN RACE POSSIBILITIES

Many British three year old handicaps run in the Spring these days feature future pattern race winners. And it looks like the one that PADLOCKED (36) won at Lingfield is going to fall into this category. He took the race in Listed class time from a good field despite the fact that it was run over only nine furlongs and he's bred to go a mile and a half.

Padlocked is entered in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He'd need to improve to win that, but he's unbeaten in two outings so I wouldn't say that's impossible. If he went for the King George V handicap instead his chance would be even greater.

SOCCERJACKPOT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

SOCCERJACKPOT (36) lost his first two starts in photos after running green and then meeting traffic. He made no mistakes third time though, bolting up in pattern class time in a Beverley maiden.

This run makes Soccerjackpot look an interesting candidate for the Britannia handicap at Royal Ascot. Certainly he looks well worth following.

FLIPANDO SHOULD GO FOR PATTERN RACES

FLIPANDO (39) won a Beverley handicap in extraordinarily fast time for the class. This is no big surprise. He's run tremendous times before. And I think I can explain why he hasn't won that often. The answer, I believe, is contained in the form book comments for Flipando's last two races before Beverley. Look them up and you'll see they included 'not clear run' and 'switched'.

It seems to me that Flipando suffers from what I call 'the small field syndrome'. He's not very good at negotiating traffic in a race and needs a small field to ensure he gets a clear run.

So far Flipando has run in a single figure field with a vaguely recent run six times and won four. He's earned Group class speed ratings from me on three occasions now. Therefore, seeing that pattern races tend to attract smaller fields than handicaps, it seems a logical move to switch Flipando to that sort of race. As I see it he'd have a much better chance of winning a Listed or Group 3 race with eight runners than a class 3 handicap with fifteen.

ASHES REGAINED CAN WIN AGAIN

ASHES REGAINED (36) won a class 4 Wolverhampton handicap in much faster time than is the norm for the grade. This lightly raced Barry Hills four year old has the physique of a useful performer and won this in good style. I'd be surprised if he didn't end up winning much better races than this. He should certainly be tough to beat in class 3 or 4 next time out.

MASAI MOON MAKES SANDREY LOOK GOOD

The joint biggest speed rating I've given a three year old all season was the one I awarded to Sandrey when he took a six furlong handicap at Lingfield. If the rating was right then MASAI MOON (37) should have had no difficulty in winning his next outing as he got to within two lengths of Sandrey.

Sure enough Masai Moon won his very next start at Beverley by two lengths, earning exactly the same speed rating I'd awarded him when he ran third to Sandrey.

It now looks like Sandrey is every bit as good as my speed ratings and his trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam have been saying and that he simply 'bounced' when running a clunker at Newmarket next time. Masai Moon is clearly a decent sort too, especially now that he's racing over the extra furlong his connections have said he needs.

FULL HOUSE HAS A DECENT SHOT IN ASCOT STAKES

Steeplechaser FULL HOUSE (37) won a two mile handicap at Goodwood in fast time by four lengths. He's now won two of the three times he's run two miles or more on fast ground on the flat. His sole loss came in an unusually strong renewal of the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot where he was a staying on fourth. He's got a decent shot of improving on that in this year's renewal of the race judged on this run.

HOW GOOD IS HALICARNASSUS

Speed ratings don't always tell the full picture and that is surely the case with HALICARNASSUS (24) who won what I will still think of as the Predominate Stakes at Goodwood in very slow time. The slow time was due to a very slow early pace. When it quickened up Halicarnassus was caught flat-footed, just as he has been several times before. But that was in shorter races. Over this longer trip he had time to get into full stride and run down the leader to win the race rather impressively.

Halicarnassus is a good-bodied, long striding sort who has always looked likely to be suited to middle distances. He's already won a Group 2 over seven furlongs so I would not be at all surprised to see him develop into a Group 1 horse at around a mile and a half. If he gets the fast ground he needs in the Irish Derby I would not dismiss his chances lightly.

RADICAL VIEWS LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE BRITANNIA

RADICAL VIEWS (36) won a seven furlong handicap on Southwell's Fibresand in a time that would give him a real chance of taking a much better race if he showed the same form on turf. That second place finish in a good maiden at Warwick, plus his very 'turfy' pedigree both indicate that he should have no problem adapting back to grass. The more important questions are whether he stays more than about a mile and whether he needs a slow surface. I suspect the answers are no on both counts. After all he's a full brother to the Group 1 winning miler No Excuse needed who could act on firm turf and did not get beyond a mile.

In the immediate future I see Radical Views as one of the more interesting prospects for the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot.

ORPSIE BOY HAS IMPROVED

ORPSIE BOY (38) maintained his unbeaten record for the season when taking a decent sprint handicap at Salisbury. Clearly he has improved this season. He's run nothing but good races on fast ground at five and six furlongs barring one sub-par effort at Goodwood where his trainer said he didn't handle the undulations. As long as he's kept away from tracks like that I see no reason why he shouldn't win again next time. In fact he might well prove good enough for a valuable sprint like the Wokingham.

FOREST GREEN BETTER THAN A SUMMER JUMPER

FOREST GREEN (36) won a handicap chase at Stratford in much better time than you normally see in the off season. He has now won all four times he's run over fixed brush hurdles or fences and looks a tough horse to beat if he's kept on the go while the better national hunt horses are resting.

AUTHORIZED IS SMART, BUT CAN HE ACT ON FIRM GOING?

AUTHORIZED (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've given the winner of a Derby Trial this year when taking the Dante. And he did so despite the slow early pace that has sadly become the norm in such races.

The way that Authorized cruised throughout the race and sprinted clear so rapidly when shaken up was impressive. Even more impressive were his sectional times that I got by using a stopwatch on the video. After the early crawl, the last five furlongs were run in 59.4 seconds. That's exactly the same time that the older fillies and mares ran the last five furlongs in the preceding Group 3 off an early gallop that was more than two seconds slower. The previous day the Oaks favourite Passage of Time had run the last five furlongs in one minute flat despite racing on going that was 2.2 seconds faster by my estimates and coming off a much slower early pace. These numbers suggest Authorized would have beaten Passage Of Time by twelve lengths. In the faster run Listed mile handicap they covered the last five furlongs in 1m 0.9 seconds. All this makes his run look seriously good.

Authorized is the only likely Derby runner to have earned the key form book comment 'quickened' which eleven of the last 12 UK-trained Derby winners have before taking the big race (the ability to quicken is now massively important in today's slower run big races according to my research). He certainly earned that comment here.

However, although Authorized clearly deserves to be Derby favourite, I have to say that he only ran a Group 2 time here (while obviously conceding he might well have been able to go much faster). In addition I should add that the ground was on the slow side of good. So we still don't know whether he can produce his best on the kind of firm surface which normally prevails at Epsom.

Authorized certainly doesn't show a great deal of knee action. His stride was noticeably bigger than that of his rivals though, so he does hit the ground pretty hard. And you also have to wonder how such a long-striding horse will handle the twists and turns of Epsom. In other words there is some hope for those of us who hate the idea of taking short odds in the Derby.

PASSAGE OF TIME SLOW AND UNIMPRESSIVE

This year every single Derby and Oaks trial above Listed status has been slow run in the early stages. So it is fiendishly hard to make any sense of them using speed ratings. However when you look at sectional times you can gain a little insight.

For example when PASSAGE OF TIME (27) won the five furlong sprint to the line in the Musidora she took three fifths of a second longer to do it than Authorized did the next day - despite coming off a slower early pace and running on ground that I rated 2.2 seconds a mile quicker. In other words if she had run exactly the same way against Authorized he would have beaten her by about a dozen lengths. She looked unimpressive to me, only scrambling home from horses that looked less well suited to the sprint than she did.

Okay Sweet Lily (27) is not going to turn this form around at Epsom as her trainer says she won't stay more than ten furlongs. But SHORTHAND (25) was still moving strongly at the finish and looked like she'd have done a whole lot better off a stronger pace and at a longer distance.

I honestly thought that Cecil's other filly Light Shift won her Oaks Trial in much better fashion. She certainly ran a whole lot faster.

The situation reminds me of the time when Tenby was a red hot favourite for the Derby and Cecil ended up winning it with his 'second string' Commander In Chief. Could we be in for a repeat? I rather suspect so.

JANINA IS NOT JUST AN EARLY SEASON 2YO

JANINA (37) is by a sire whose biggest win came in a five furlong Group 1 out of a mare whose biggest win came in a five furlong Group 3. So, seeing that she herself has just won an early season five furlong Listed race, it's easy to leap to the conclusion that Janina is a five furlong speedball pure and simple that will disappear below the radar once the distance of juvenile races lengthens.

However when you watch the video of her win at York it's hard not to notice that Janina has a very different physique to the close-coupled, short-necked, muscular sorts she's racing against. Unlike them, she clearly has the build of a miler. Her stride is very different too. It's not the short stride of a sprinter. Her action is longer and very economical.

The way that Janina raced also indicated she will want further than the five furlongs she raced over at York. She took a while to get going and only put her rivals away inside the last furlong. If the race had been a furlong longer I've no doubt she would have been a wide margin winner.

The clincher is the remarkable time that Janina clocked. It merited a speed rating of 37 from me. This is Group 1 class for a juvenile filly this early in the season and that's something you rarely see.

Mark my words, Janina is something special. She is not just an early season two year old. She's going to be around at the top level all season long. And when she has the chance to go longer distances I'd bet on her improving. I recognize that it's early days yet, but if she were mine, I'd be aiming Janina at the Moyglare Stud Stakes. The seven furlongs of that race should suit her perfectly. After that I'd be looking at the Fillies Mile and the Marcel Boussac. That's how highly I rate her. This being so, when she steps up to six furlongs next time out for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot you won't find me opposing her.

TIA MIA (35) ran fast enough to make herself a leading candidate for the Queen Mary by running third. CRISTAL CLEAR (35) did the same by running third. She ran green and is bred to go a bit further, so I suspect she will improve past Tia Mia as the season goes on.

RAMONTI IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

In recent years we have seen former Italian star Rakti, Electrocutionist and Falbrav develop into top performers in Britain. Now it looks like RAMONTI (36) is going to follow suit.

Ramonti ran a huge race to go under by a head in a sprint finish to the Lockinge Stakes on his British debut for Godolphin. He was moving far stronger than anything else as they came to the line and would have got up in another stride or two. I simply think he was unsuited to the way the race was run. The field just ambled along for the first three quarters of a mile and then sprinted the final two furlongs.

Ramonti was throwing his head about in the early stages, clearly wanting to go faster. And the way he surged up to the winner in the dying strides made it clear to me that he was much the best horse in the line up. He’s a very handsome horse whose record and physique back up the impression he gave here, namely that he’ll have no problem stepping up to ten furlongs.

Ramonti has earned proper Group 1 speed ratings from me in Italy. I see him as a great prospect for all the top ten furlong races. He also looks the one they all have to beat in the Queen Anne Stakes, a race that his stable have won six of the ten times they‘ve had a runner in it.

The winner, Red Evie (36) had never earned a Group class speed rating from me before and did not do so here either. Clearly she is very well suited to races that feature sprint finishes such as this one. The only time she’s been asked to go a mile in what my ratings say was a truly run race she got beat 46 lengths. Modern racing being what it is, she will no doubt be able to win further races when the early pace is slow. But she’s never going to carry my money.

He finished best of all to take third in the Prix du Muguet last time. The Muguet is France's top mile race open to all-comers before the Autumn and really deserves Group 1 status.

Third-placed PASSAGER (36) is a very decent miler who will surely take a good race soon. He always seems to need his seasonal debut. Toss out his seasonal debuts and he would have won all his other six starts before his smart third in the Prix du Muguet but for a couple of narrow misses.

Passager’s run illustrates the bias of the pattern race committee towards British races. The Prix du Muguet is the top all-comers mile race in France during the first seven months of the year. Yet it is only rated a Group 2 contest. The Lockinge Stakes is not quite as good a contest but it has been upgraded from Group 2 to Group 1. The unjustifiable difference surely accounted for Passager’s astonishing SP of 20-1. Punters clearly thought he was stepping up in class following a defeat. If anything he was stepping down.

FOLLY LODGE LOOKS GROUP CLASS

The fillies handicap on Newbury’s Locking card went to subsequent Group 1 scorer Red Evie last year. This year’s winner FOLLY LODGE (36) is a pattern class horse too according to my speed ratings. She only clocked a Listed class time. But she cruised through to win the race within a few strides and was being heavily eased close him. So I strongly suspect she could have run a good deal quicker.

I’d be surprised if trainer Barry Hills kept Folly Lodge to handicap company after this. She’s got a very commercial pedigree and would be worth a bundle as a broodmare if she earned some black type. As I see it, that shouldn’t be a problem at all. I reckon Folly Lodge will prove Group class.

EUROPEAN DREAM A LOCAL HERO

EUROPEAN DREAM (39) ran a huge race to win a red hot mile handicap at Ripon in Group class time. At first I was at a loss to explain his in and out form. Then an obvious pattern struck me. The horse has won the last five times he has run on yielding or faster ground at the tracks closest to his stables and lost the last fifteen times that he hasn't.

It does seem very likely that European Dream is one of those horses that just doesn't travel very well. Locally though I would not oppose him, and on the flat that means whenever he runs at Carlisle, Newcastle, Redcar, Catterick, Thirsk, Ripon or York.

BLYTHE KNIGHT SHOULD WIN A GROUP RACE

The Listed Hambleton Stakes was one of the strongest handicaps we've had in years according to my speed ratings. Half a dozen of the runners had previously earned Group 2 class speed ratings from me. Three of them fought out the finish. The winner was BLYTHE KNIGHT (40) who clearly appreciated the cut in the ground.

Blythe Knight is a proper Group horse according to my speed ratings who should have no difficulty making the planned transition to Group races. Indeed I suspect he will win a good deal more often in that sort of race as he's been facing very tough tasks carrying high weights in huge fields of very smart handicappers.

Runner-up WISE DENNIS (39) has a tremendous record on slower surfaces and ran another huge race here. He surprised me by proving that he can stay a mile which opens up new possibilities for him. However I would have reservations about him in the immediate future as the ground is normally firm during the Summer which doesn't suit him. That said, at any time of the year on yielding or softer ground or Fibresand I would be wary of opposing Wise Dennis.

SENTRY DUTY LOOKING INTERESTING FOR QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES

Nicky Henderson almost always produces a strong contender for the Queen Alexandra Stakes and the big marathon handicap at Royal Ascot. His big gun this time looks to be French import SENTRY DUTY (38) who beat a big field in Group 3 class time to score at Newmarket.

NORTHERN JEM IS SMART

NORTHERN JEM (37) won a Ripon maiden in a time that suggests his trainer's high opinion of him is not far off the mark. The horse had gotten into a ludicrous amount of trouble when third on his first start beyond a mile but scored in seriously fast time for a maiden this time. His trainer said afterwards that "If he'd broken his maiden earlier, I would have run in the Dante, that's how much I think of him". The clock says this is not just talk.

Normally when a maiden is this fast the horses that finish close up behind the winner frank the form by winning soon after. So I'd be looking for RAVARINO (35), TRIPLE BEAT (34) and HOPE RAOD (34) to do just that.

GENARI MILES AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

GENARI (37) won a handicap on Southwell's Fibresand in pattern class time. He was a close fifth in the Chesham as a two year old and third to the brilliant Tam Lin in Listed company last term. But he's run below that sort of form on most of his other starts so he was gelded during the Winter.

In the past Genari has only ever gone well fresh, that is his first two runs of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. Now we have to debate whether or not he will be able to hold his form without resting in future. The fact that he was backward on his seasonal debut suggests to me that he can. Horses that go well fresh normally get themselves fit at home, so I'm inclined to believe his need for being fresh stemmed from mental rather than physical causes before and that gelding him may have cured them.

The other obvious question we need to answer about Genari is whether he can translate this form to turf or Polytrack. Fibresand is the only remaining surface in Britain that closely resembles traditional dirt. So it has to be a concern that the only other winning foal of Genari's dam scored one of her two wins on Fibresand as well. Then again, Genari has shown such smart form on turf before and ran so well at Sandown first time out that I'm inclined to believe he will handle turf at least. Though I have to say I'd prefer to see him on soft turf as quite often horses which bounce back to form on Fibresand do so because firm turf has been jarring their legs.

In any event Genari is miles ahead of the handicapper and looks likely to win several more races soon.

AMADEUS WOLF PROBABLY BEST FRESH

AMADEUS WOLF (41) ran a fast time to take the Duke Of York Stakes. And it is now looking increasingly likely that he is best when fresh. So far he has won four of the five times he's come into a race run over six furlongs off a break of five weeks or more. He's run well without rests and also over five and six and a half furlongs. But the fact is he's lost all eight times he hasn't run over six furlongs and been fresh.

There's just about enough time between this race and the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Ascot for Amadeus Wolf. But he hasn't run as fast as the Aussie runners he'd be facing their by my estimates. So if he were mine I'd keep him fresh and not run him again till the July Cup.

DOES SOLDIER OF FORTUNE REALLY STAY 12 FURLONGS?

The time that SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (39) clocked to win the Chester Vase was very decent. But I’m inclined to believe that he only lasted the distance thanks to a noticeably slow early pace and the very tight turns of the track.

Soldier Of Fortune is a full brother to Heliostatic who clearly failed to stay the mile and a half in the Irish Derby last year. His dam had no less than ten siblings which raced. She herself failed to stay a mile and a half and so did all her ten siblings despite the fact that one of them was by Galileo (Soldier Of Fortune's sire) and five were by sires whose progeny's average winning distance was as long or longer than Galileo. This being so, I think Soldier Of Fortune should go for the Prix du Jockey Club rather than the Derby.

Having said that, I have to add that Soldier of Fortune did well to win this race as he was probably too far off the pace when the sprint to the line began and looked rather green when asked to go and win his race. I’ve little doubt that he’s a Group 1 horse.

ARABIAN GULF (39) very nearly stole the race by getting first run on Soldier Of Fortune. He raced like an old hand so I suspect he’s never going to run much better than this. That would make him a Group 2 horse and not a Derby winner. Certainly I didn’t feel I was watching a Group 1 horse. I believe he only got so close to the winner because he was enterprisingly ridden.

ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR DERBY

Admiralofthefleet (35) clocked a remarkably slow time to win the Dee Stakes.. His time up the homestraight was about a second slower than his stablemate Soldier Of Fortune managed in the Chester Vase too. So there’s no way you can say that his time was affected by a slow early pace. The only conclusion I can come to is that Admiralofthefleet is just not good enough for the Derby.

FONGS GAZELLE IS MUCH BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER

FONGS GAZELLE (38) bolted up by five lengths in sensational time at Beverley. She has now won all three times she’s run middle distances and is much better than a handicapper according to my ratings. In fact I’d actually give her a shot in the Oaks if she were supplemented for that race. That’s how highly I rate her.

No doubt Fongs Gazelle will be running in Group company eventually. Right now though her handicap mark is still so low I can understand that her connections will want to exploit it.

LIGHT SHIFT NEEDS TO IMPROVE

LIGHT SHIFT (37) won the Cheshire Oaks in good style, quickening up nicely and clearly having something in reserve. She keeps in improving as she’s stepped up in distance and I can’t say she won’t be good enough to win the Oaks next month. I can say she needs to run a bit quicker to win a Group 1 though as that’s what my ratings indicate.

This kind of situation is very hard to analyse. Guessing how much an easy winner has in hand is impossible. But in my experience the answer is usually very little, so I’m inclined to say Light Shift won’t be quite good enough for the big race.

ZIDANE LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WOKINGHAM

ZIDANE (41) ran a time that would give him a shot in the top six furlong races when taking a class 3 handicap at Ascot. Clearly he has improved significantly for being gelded.

I note with interest that Zidane ran a close fourth at seven furlongs on his run before Ascot. This is highly significant because his big objective is the Wokingham and most winners of that race had form at seven furlongs, the extra stamina being necessary due to the fierce early pace of Ascot annual six furlong stampede.

You can never be certain of anything in a 30 runner handicap. But if Zidane gets a decent draw I'll be reluctant to oppose him in the Wokingham.

SANDREY IS A SMART SPRINTER

Strong winds are a pain for those of us who make speed ratings. You've got to refer to the map of the course and figure out what percentage of the race they had the tailwind behind them and for how long they were running into it. Then you've got to start guessing exactly how strong the wind is and keep refining your guess till you get a sensible result.

In the case of the three year old sprint at Lingfield last week-end I estimated the effect of the wind as being towards the outer limits of what my studies show is possible - 1.2 seconds a mile. But even with this massive adjustment I still have to rate the performance of SANDREY (40) as solid Group class in the six furlong 3YO handicap.

Sandrey's dam has had no other foals. But, seeing that the 14 wins scored by her siblings all came over five or six furlongs, I doubt that Sandrey will be staying any further than he ran here. But he doesn't have to. He's good enough to win Group races on this run and looks a great bet to win a valuable handicap.

Runner-up KING'S BASTION (38) should be franking this form soon. Though I rather wonder whether he needs a downhill course to produce his best as his three biggest runs have all been at Lingfield.

WAKE UP MAGGIE IS VERY SMART AT SEVEN FURLONGS

Looking at the way WAKE UP MAGGIE (38) won the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies Stakes at Lingfield it’s easy to conclude that she’ll have no problem stepping up in distance to a mile. She went into a narrow lead at the furlong pole and burst clear when shaken up to win full of running.

However you need to bear in mind that Wake Up Maggie was racing on a downhill course here and had a strong tailwind behind her. She’s tired in the closing stages both times she’s gone a mile in the past and I’d bet on her doing so again in future. This is a shame because there are no Group 1 races for older fillies at seven furlongs while there are several at a mile.

Wake Up Maggie has actually earned ratings as high as 40 from me in the past. That’s more than good enough to win a Group 1 race for fillies. No doubt she’ll be aimed at some of the Group 1 fillies races over a mile. But, as I see it, her best chance of Group 1 success will be in the Prix Maurice de Gheest or the Prix Foret over 6.5f and 7f against colts.

AQALEEM DOESN’T LOOK LIKE A DERBY WINNER

Aqaleem (37) won the Lingfield Derby Trial by four lengths. But it did look to be a bit of a struggle and the time he clocked only just makes it into pattern class on my speed ratings.

For me the horse to take out of the race is runner-up HEARTHSTEAD MAISON (34) who already looks to be crying out for the St Leger distance. He was knocked out of his stride approaching the furlong pole and took ages to reorganise himself before staying on well to the line. I was impressed by the way Hearthstead Maison won at Newmarket on his previous start and expect to see him develop into a serious candidate for the final Classic.

KAYAH PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR EPSOM

It’s unwise to knock a horse that’s unbeaten. But I have to say that the way Kayah (37) struggled to win the Lingfield Oaks Trial in only reasonably good time makes me think she’s not going to prove up to Group 1 class. I imagine her owner won’t want to supplement her for the Oaks anyway as she apparently needs cut in the ground and you can’t be sure of the ground at the supplementary stage. My best bet would be that her trainer is right in suggesting it’s best to shoot for something longer and lower class than the Oaks in the Park Hill Stakes.

WISE DENNIS SMART AT 7F ON SLOW GOING

WISE DENNIS (40) blew home by a big margin in the Victoria Cup, earning a solid Group2 class speed rating from me in the process. However he is going to be difficult to place if my read of his form is correct.

As I see it, Wise Dennis needs a slow surface (wither Fibresand or yielding or softer turf) to produce this level of form. In addition also requires the rather unusual distance of seven furlongs. The combination has occurred just three times in the 22 race career of Wise Dennis and he's won every time. He's won just one of his other nineteen starts and that was as a two year old.

If he were mine I'd lay Wise Dennis off till the Autumn, enter him in all the big seven furlong races like the Challenge Stakes, the Prix Foret and that other big seven furlong handicap at Ascot and start praying for rain. If he's kept on the go during the Summer I very much doubt that he'll get his ground.

RACCOON EARNS HIS STRIPES

I noted RACCOON (39) here a while ago after he'd won a minor handicap in fast time. I have to do so again because he has just gone and run even faster when winning at Catterick.

Raccoon has clearly been revived by a tubing operation. As long as his connections avoid running him in testing circumstances, such as yielding or softer ground, a stiff track or beyond five furlongs (because horses with wind problems are invariably found out by such things), I'd say he'll keep on winning. He's still ludicrously well handicapped. Forget about his loss a few days later. That was over six furlongs. Back over five on fast ground on an easy track he should soon win again.

DOES AAHAYSON NEED A SMALL FIELD?

AAHAYSON (38) was bet heavily before hosing up in a conditions sprint at Nottingham. This being so I’m inclined to believe that his connections felt something about the circumstances of the race suited him. In this regard it is interesting to note that there was only a small field.

Aahayson has now won three of the four times he’s run in fields of eight or less but lost all seven times he’s been in bigger fields. It might well be this smart young sprinter is best dominating a small number of rivals as is often the case with front runners. Only time will tell, but for now, that’s the best theory I can come up with.

THE KEY TO LOCKSMITH IS A SMALL FIELD

LOCKSMITH (37) showed that he's as good as ever by winning a hot little handicap chase at Kelso in pattern class time.

It's now looking very much like Locksmith is only every going to show his best form over fences in small fields. A couple of years ago he fell in a race. A few runs later he jumped slowly. This is often a sign that a horse has become scared of falling again and adopted an ultra-cautious approach to clearing fences.

I now reckon that Locksmith needs a very small field, one where he doesn't feel crowded. In addition he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to help him clear the jumps. So far he's run in six chases on good or faster ground in fields of six or less and won five. He was second in a valuable race in his only defeat in these circumstances.

TOM SAYERS IS HOT WHEN THE WEATHER’S WARM

Look at the form of TOM SAYERS (37) and a couple of things are obvious. Firstly his connections clearly believe he’s best on right-handed courses. Secondly there is a clear seasonal pattern to his form. He is at his best in the Spring and Summer. So far Tom Sayers has won five of his six completed starts over fences in the Spring and Summer and finished second the other time. His latest success came at Wincanton and was achieved in remarkably good time for the off season.

There are now some valuable chases run during the Summer, including on right-handed tracks. I’ll be interested in Tom Sayer’s chances if he goes for one of them.

MIGHTY FINE IS NO BACK NUMBER

Steeplechasers are supposed to deteriorate at thirteen years of age. But nobody seems to have told MIGHTY FINE (36). the old boy streaked home in a two mile handicap chase at Wetherby in unusually fast time for the off season. He’s won eight of his last 14 completed chase starts. And on this run he’s likely to maintain his high strike rate if kept on the go during the Summer.

FINSCEAL BEO IS STILL BRILLIANT

FINSCEAL BEO (40) duly won the 1000 Guineas. And she did it in seriously fast time. Clearly she is one of the fastest three year old fillies at a mile we’ve seen in several seasons.

In the future I would be wary of betting against Finsceal Beo on fast ground against her own sex at a mile. Her real challenges will come when she steps up in distance, runs on soft ground and faces colts.

I’m not going to say Finsceal Beo won’t stay a mile and a quarter because she’s trained by Jim Bolger who has a knack of getting horses to outstay their pedigrees rather like Mark Johnston does in Britain. So I don’t think distance is going to beat her.

I also imagine that Bolger will be careful to steer Finsceal Beo away from soft ground seeing how she flopped on the surface in last year’s Goffs Million.

As I see it, if Finsceal Beo is going to get beat it will be because her connections get really ambitious and take on older males at a mile and a quarter in something like the Irish Champion Stakes. This is fast beginning to look like a vintage year for older middle distance horses and Finsceal Beo would have to be better than seems likely to beat the best of them.

COCKNEY REBEL WON'T WIN ANOTHER GROUP 1

I've been going racing for many years and can't recall a time before this season when two horses which dominated the ante-post betting for a Classic were both withdrawn. But that's what happened this season with the Two Thousand Guineas. Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor both exited the race in extraordinary circumstances. This being so, it's not surprising the eventual winner Cockney Rebel (39) ended up running a comparatively slow time.

Note that I said 'comparatively' because this is the key to making speed ratings. You don't look at the raw time, which in Cockney Rebel's case was one of the fastest ever 2000 Guineas. Instead you compare the time of a race with others run at the same meeting. And in this case a comparison with the time of the 1000 Guineas indicates that Cockney Rebel is nothing special at all.

I concede they did not water overnight at Newmarket and that the Turftrax going stick gave a slightly higher reading on 1000 Guineas day. But the going was already speeding the horses up by as much as is physically possible on the preceding day for the 2000 Guineas. Assuming that the firmer surface sped the fillies up more would be the same as saying that Olympic athletes would run faster on concrete than on a synthetic track. There's a cut off point beyond which added firmness in the running surface has no extra effect on the runners' speed. Yes there was a tailwind, but I estimate it was speeding the horses up by 0.8 seconds a mile in both Guineas.

There have been seven previous winners of the 2000 Guineas in the last 30 years who clocked a slower time than the winner of the 1000 Guineas. None of the seven winners won another Group 1 race after taking the first colt's classic. I'm happy to bet that Cockney Rebel is going to make it eight in a row by not scoring at the top level again.

For me there are two horses to take out of the race - DIAMOND TYCOON (33) and ADAGIO (32).

Diamond Tycoon did very well for such an inexperienced horse to finish so close. However good they are, horses invariably run below form the first time they face top class rivals. With this run under his belt I'd expect Diamond Tycoon to bounce back to the smart form he showed when running so fast at Newbury. That makes him look an interesting candidate for the St James' Palace Stakes or perhaps the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Adagio has the physique, pedigree and running style of a ten furlong horse. He ran as well as could be expected in such a strongly run race over a mile. I still see him as a good candidate for the Eclipse Stakes though, as I've mentioned, I just don't think he'll quite get the mile and a half of the Derby.

ENTICING LOOKS ALMOST UNBEATABLE AT FIVE FURLONGS

The Aussies are sending over a truly remarkable sprinting mare to Royal Ascot in the form of Miss Andretti. She has scored in seven of her last 5f & 6f starts, won three Group 1's in a row, become the first horse ever to win Australia's four biggest sprints in a single season and broken track records in two of her last three starts.

Smart as Miss Andretti is, Europe may well have a filly to match her, at least over five furlongs. The name of this paragon is ENTICING (43) who, amazingly, is just three years old.

Enticing demolished the five furlong course record at Bath last week when hosing up in a Listed event. I've assumed that the going was literally as fast as it could possibly be and that the tailwind sped the runners up by the maximum amount my research tells me that it can. Even with these assumptions built in I've had to award Enticing an amazingly big speed rating, the joint biggest I've given any horse anywhere in Europe this season.

Okay there are stacks of smart sprinters in Britain. But on the fast ground she clearly needs I would bet Enticing to beat any of them over five furlongs. So far she's unbeaten at the minimum trip on fast ground. I wouldn't bet on that changing any time soon.

Clearly the going is always going to be Enticing's big stumbling block. The Group 1 races arrive when they arrive. Her connections can't pick and choose when to run her. So, unless they adopt a very conservative policy indeed, she is inevitably going to run on going too slow for her one or two times this season at least. It's also perfectly understandable if they experiment to see if she'll stay six furlongs (which I very much doubt she will).

However, before you let any future poor run over longer or softer tempt you to oppose Enticing over five furlongs on fast ground just flick back through the form book to this performance. Compare the time she ran with the other two five furlong races on the card and consider the quality of horses she buried by five lengths and more (a huge margin over five furlongs).

CESARE THE TOP MILER

CESARE (42) ran as fast as many Champion Milers when lowering Ascot's course record in a runaway win last week.

It's obvious from his form that Cesare is best when fresh. He seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two runs each season but then needs a break of at least five weeks to run well again. He lost narrowly on his racecourse debut and another time when he hadn't yet come in his coat. Otherwise his seven runs at a mile or less when fresh are nothing but wins.

The logical thing to do with Cesare now is stump up the money to supplement him for the Queen Anne. The race is over the same course and distance that he was so impressive over here. And, as long as his connections don't run him between then and now, he'll have a great shot of winning it. After that, if his runs are spaced out enough, he could easily go through the season unbeaten unless something unusually good emerges amongst the other milers.

ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (38) ran a big race to chase Cesare home considering that his form is now beginning to indicate that he's best around a turn. He got outpaced at one stage here before running on and I think he needs a turn to slow his rivals down and stop them running away from him early.

Illustrious Blue has won the last five times he's run around a turn on good or faster horse. And he's earned ratings as big as 41 from me while doing so. In other words he's more than capable of winning a Group 2 and maybe even a weak Group 1.

HUGE RUN BY IDLE NO MORE

Lines of form and time comparisons with the other races clearly indicate that IDLE NO MORE (40) ran almost impossibly fast to win a mile maiden on his debut at Southwell.

The question we must now ask is 'can Idle No More replicate this effort on grass or Polytrack?' If he can then he's certainly going to win Group races. If he can't then there won't be any Group or even Listed races he can even run in on a surface that enables him to produce his best.

I am immediately suspicious about Idle No More's ability to translate this from to grass because trainer John Gosden started him off at Southwell, which is now the only track in Britain to offer a surface similar to traditional dirt. Throw in the fact that he's by Mr Greeley, a dirt sire, and my suspicions deepen. The you have to add in the concern that he's started his racing career late and has done so on a surface which trainers often use for horses with dodgy legs.

Maybe Idle No More will be able to run this big on firm turf. It's possible. Certainly he looks an interesting prospect to continue Gosden's amazing run in the Britannia Stakes - unless the handicapper sticks him with a huge mark which is perfectly possible. But, until he proves otherwise, I'm inclined to believe that Idle No More is running in the wrong country. He should be bundled off to America and raced on dirt. Of course, if he does prove me wrong (and I'd estimate there's a 40% chance of that) then he has a real shot of winning a Group 1 race.

PREMIO LOCO IS USEFUL

PREMIO LOCO (37) ran away with a mile maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack in pattern class time. He's obviously a useful colt but the form of those he beat is so obscure that I think the handicapper will probably let him get away with an official rating in the low 80's. That means Premio Loco has a major chance of winning a valuable three year old handicap sometime soon.

I'm not sure we can gain too much insight from Premio Loco's two previous runs as he was so obviously green. His trainer wondered whether he may have hung last time because he was disliking the firm ground. It's possible but Premio Loco is from a fast ground family and my research shows that horses hang less and less as they gain experience. I suspect he was simply showing his inexperience last time and will handle fast ground fine. In any event I have my eye on him for a big race soon.

WILLIAM'S WAY KEEPS ON IMPROVING

When I look at my speed ratings for WILLIAM'S WAY (36) they show a remarkably consistent upward curve. He continued the improvement to win at Wolverhampton last week, showing unusual versatility by following up a Fibresand win with one on Polytrack.

It seems likely that, like many horses, William's Way is best in fields of 11 or less. He's obviously rather hard to steer and this seems to get him into traffic problems in bigger fields. Then again it could be he's simply improving at a rate of knots and is over his past quirks. Either way I very much doubt that William's Way has stopped winning just yet. He's still eligible for races well below his true class according to my ratings.

TABADUL IS PATTERN CLASS IN A SMALL FIELD

TABADUL (37) did once win in a big field at Nad Al Sheba. But the frequency with which he meets traffic trouble strongly suggests that his record is right in suggesting he is best in small fields. For most horses of this type that means 11 runners or less.

So far Tabadul has run five times on what I rate good or faster ground or Polytrack in fields of 11 or less. He won four of those five times and was a close fourth when not getting a clear run in a hot race in his sole defeat.

Seeing that he's now bumping up against the outer limits of handicap racing with his official rating and that Listed races normally attract smaller fields than handicaps it makes sense to step Tabadul up to pattern class. There should be plenty of opportunity for him to win at that level on the fast ground which normally prevails during the Summer.

Third placed QUEEN'S BEST (36) is a very well bred filly and ran fast enough here to suggest she will be able to earn the black type she needs to become a valuable broodmare. Meanwhile she'd be a slam dunk to win a fillies only handicap.

RACCOON SHOULD FOLLOW UP

RACCOON (37) was a decent sprinter way back in 2004. An operation to tube him brought him back to his best to take a moderate five furlong handicap at Nottingham. He ought to have no problem following up this win as long as the ground stays fast (most horses with wind problems need fast ground).