FANTASTIC DEBUT BY ANCIENT LIGHTS

ANICENT LIGHTS (38) didn't clock a fast time when winning on his racecourse debut at Newmarket. But he finished so strongly I feel compelled to adjust his speed rating based on sectional times to reflect what I think is his true merit.

There were four other races on the Newmarket card which featured a slow early pace, including a good seven furlong handicap and a six furlong juvenile won by a likely pattern class horse. But even though he was running over ten furlongs Ancient Lights came home faster than any of them. I clocked him running the last three furlongs in just 35.9 seconds on ground that race times clearly indicate was good rather than the official good to firm.

The way Ancient Lights picked up in the closing stages was truly remarkable. He accelerated in the way only a high class horse can. And he was still full of running at the finish.

Ancient Lights is a heavy topped, good bodied, powerful, deep chested sort. This is not surprising. Three of his dam's other four foals to race were jumpers.

This race was run over ten furlongs but Ancient Lights is obviously built and bred for a mile and a half. I can see why trainer Henry Cecil talked about the possibility of keeping him to ten furlongs for Royal Ascot and running him in the Hampton Court Stakes rather than the King Edward VII over a mile and a half. He loves to have winners at the Royal meeting and Ancient Lights would be pretty much of a slam dunk in the shorter contest as it's only a Listed contest whereas the King Edward VII is Europe's most valuable Group 2 and attracts Group 1 horses.

Whatever race he runs in at Royal Ascot, Ancient Lights will be running over twelve furlongs soon. I'd like to see him take up his entry in the Grand Prix de Paris over the distance in mid July as he showed here that the can cope with the kind of sprint finish French races so often produce.

I know that Henry Cecil has some smart three year olds in his yard, including Kandahar Run, Unnefer and Twice Over. But what I saw here tells me that Ancient Lights is probably better than any of them.

The only negative I can see with Ancient Lights is that he is a heavy horse who shows knee action and hits the ground hard. No doubt this is the reason he's had problems with quarter cracks (small splits in the wall of the hoof) in the past. It could be he'll have trouble showing his best on firmer ground than this. But my gut feel is that this won't prove to be the case.

Long term the logical target for Ancient Lights is probably the St Leger. Meanwhile I'm actually rather hoping Cecil does stick to ten furlongs with him and shoots for the Hampton Court Stakes - because he'd be my banker for the Royal meeting in that contest.

It was most fortunate that there was another pattern class horse in the race to push Ancient Lights and force him to reveal his talent. This was the runner up MEETHAAQ (37), another debutante who made a spirited and sustained challenge without ever being able to get the winner off the bit. In doing so he quickly pulled six lengths clear of the rest in the last couple of furlongs.

Meethaaq has much more of a fast ground action. He's a pretty tall, good looking sort who clearly has a serious turn of foot. He showed no sign of inexperience here. So if he were mine I'd be inclined to skip the formality of a maiden win and go straight for a pattern race. He'd be a slam dunk to win a Listed contest in my opinion, as long as he didn't bump into the winner again.

FLEETING SPIRIT FAST BUT LOOKS SET TO BOUNCE IN KINGS STAND

FLEETING SPIRIT (43) clocked a sensationally fast time to lower Haydock's five furlong course record by over a second when taking the Group 2 Temple Stakes. You could argue that the strong tailwind was primarily responsible for her fast time. But my studies show that the strongest tailwind can only speed horses up by a second a mile, or about six tenths of a second over five furlongs. So she would still have broken the course record without it.

You could see right off the bat that the time was going to be really quick because the front runners were visibly going at a terrific clip.

Fleeting Spirit was awkward leaving the stalls and this almost certainly helped her because it meant she came from behind the fierce pace instead of being right up there with it as she has in the past. Her connections will surely learn from this and have her ridden in the same way in the Kings Stand.

The big problem for Fleeting Spirit in regards to the Kings Stand Stakes is that dreaded factor 'the bounce' which is a very real phenomenon according to my research. The bounce refers to the situation where a horse regresses in performance or 'bounces' due to the effects of a fast recent race.

The shorter the distance the more likely a horse is to bounce according to my research. If the fast run follows a lay-off a bounce is more likely still - especially if it is the fastest a horse has ever run. And the most 'bouncy' population of horses are three year old fillies.

The most likely bounce candidate of all would be a three year old filly that has just run faster than ever over five furlongs following a lay-off. In other words a horse exactly like Fleeting Spirit.

I did a bit of research on this, and I had to base it on Raceform speed ratings because I don't have my own entered in a searchable database.

I found that since Raceform adjusted their speed ratings formula in 2000 there have been 19 three year old fillies which earned ratings of 110 or more over five furlongs off lay-offs of 90 days or more before June in Britain. All nineteen lost next time out. In the four previous seasons I found five three year old fillies which had earned speed ratings of 50 or more (the rough equivalent on Raceform's old rating scale) in the same circumstances. Again all five lost next time out.

In other words the 24 fastest five furlong performances by three year old fillies on their seasonal debuts over the last dozen years have all been followed by defeat next time out.

Clearly, despite the fact that she's now unbeaten in four tries over the minimum distance and ran incredibly fast here, the smart money just has to be on Fleeting Spirit 'bouncing' in the Kings Stand Stakes. To put it bluntly, if she was going to win that race she shouldn't have run in this one.

WILL THE OAKS TRIP BE FAR ENOUGH FOR MICHITA?

When you're analyzing American pedigrees you need to bear in mind that over 99% of races on the other side of the Pond below pattern class are run over nine furlongs or less. In fact eight and a half furlongs is for all practical purposes the longest distance the vast majority of American horses ever get the chance to run. In addition at most American tracks the minimum distance for horses older than two is six furlongs.

The insanely compressed distance range in America doesn't confuse things too much in the case of sires because their best progeny get the chance to run in US stakes races over longer trips and also abroad where the distance range is wider. But in the case of dams it is very confusing. Look up the form for the progeny of almost any American broodmare and it will look like she produces nothing but sprinter-milers.

The only vaguely decent way to identify a US dam as being an influence for stamina is to see over what trip her progeny were most effective at as juveniles, because the distance range for two year olds is similar to what it is in Europe.

In the case of Thunder Kitten, the dam of MICHITA (37), the indications from her two previous foals to race as juveniles point to serious stamina. One of them won over a mile second time out. The other produced his best form in two eight and a half furlong races. Her other foal didn't race at two but has also produced his best form over eight and a half furlongs since.

When you look at the progeny of Dynaformer parading before a race in America they often look out of place. They're typically, tall, strong and deep chested, pretty much like national hunt store horses. It's hardly surprising his progeny do so well over a mile and a half plus in Europe (they include last year's Leger winner Lucarno).

I give this preamble because Michita has just won what I still insist on calling the Lupe Stakes at Goodwood and some are questioning whether she'll get the extra two furlongs in the Oaks.

As I see it, the concern about the distance for Michita at Epsom isn't whether it will be too far but whether it will be far enough. She is a tall, deep-chested filly who displayed real stamina to win at Goodwood.

The early pace at Goodwood was strong. Actually it looked to be a little too strong for the distance as Queen of Naples and Don't Forget Fath dueled up front for a long way.

Soon after entering the straight Michita began to make progress and loomed up going ominously well towards the leaders. With three furlongs to go everything else was being ridden along but her rider still had a double handful. He asked her to go just after the two furlong pole and, after jinking to her right she quickly drew away from her rivals while drifting slightly to her left.

Michita won this race on stamina. It rode more like a mile and a half race due to the searching early pace. Yes she did show a smart turn of foot towards the finish. But I doubt she'd have looked anything like as impressive if the early pace had been slow as it was in the big race for colts where they came home half a second quicker from the end of the false rail one and a half furlongs out. In fact I'm not sure she would even have won at all in those circumstances.

My feeling is that Michita is going to prove best over the Leger trip and that she's just shy of Group 1 class. In addition she still ran a little green her after showing her inexperience by playing up before her seasonal debut. I think she needs another run or two before she'll be the finished article.

SAUCY BROWN A BIG PLAYER IN COVENTRY STAKES

SAUCY BROWN (35) looked out of place in the five furlong juvenile maiden he contested at Newmarket on his racecourse debut. First of all he was taller and more scopey than all his rivals. He has the build of a horse that wants a mile and may well stay longer. Secondly he was a good deal more mature than any of the other runners. In fact he looked like a three year old running against two year olds.

Saucy Brown is rather stoutly bred on the dam's side of his pedigree, where pretty much everything was a mile and a half horse. So it's understandable that he's built for a mile plus and has a big stride on him.

Being built and bred the way he is Saucy Brown should have had no business winning a five furlong race, especially one that was run at a slow pace till about halfway. But he came through pretty darned majestically in the closing stages. His big stride carried him up to the leaders quite rapidly and he was soon drawing away to win full of running while being eased up in the dying strides.

In a truly run race the sectional times formula I use to adjust slow run juvenile races suggests Saucy Brown would have run a Group class time. And he looks sure to improve for the extra furlong of the Coventry Stakes. Clearly he is one of the big players for that race.

AAKEF (33) is a smaller, more close-coupled sort who is built for sprinting. He made a valiant effort to go with the winner when he blew but just couldn't match strides with him.

The way that the winner dismissed him tells me that Aakef is not quite Group class. But he does look useful and should have no trouble breaking his maiden next time.

ELUSIVE WAVE PROBABLY NEEDS LONGER

ELUSIVE WAVE (35) established herself as one of the fastest two year olds seen so far when taking a six furlong Goodwood maiden on her racecourse debut.

In the early stages victory seemed anything but certain for Elusive Wave as she was pretty much flat to the boards. But approaching the final furlong her stamina kicked in with a vengeance and she cleared away to win full of running despite running green and rolling around first one way then the other. She passed the post with her ears pricked and would undoubtedly have buried her rivals by a huge margin if the race had been a furlong longer. As it is she still won by over three lengths and clocked a Group class time.

Elusive Wave comes from a very stout female family, so her obvious stamina is no surprise. She's a big, strong, mature filly who looks more like a colt and is clearly a very good prospect. However I'm not convinced that the Albany Stakes is the right target for her. She's previously been slow away from the stalls at home. And if she had trouble keeping up with the pace set by maidens here over six furlongs how is she going to cope with the stronger early pace of a pattern race like the Albany Stakes?

I could be wrong, but if she were mine I'd be targeting the Chesham Stakes over seven furlongs with Elusive Wave or waiting until more longer races become available.

CITY LEADER IMPROVES FOR LONGER TRIP

CITY LEADER (31) always looked likely to improve for a step up to middle distances and duly did so to take what used to be called the Predominate Stakes at Goodwood. Unfortunately the slow early pace meant he wasn't able to record a time which reflected his real merit.

After becoming unbalanced and nearly falling on the top bend, it looked clear early in the straight that City Leader was going to fight out the finish with Scintillo as the pair were clearly going better than anything else while they raced alongside, with Scintillo on the inner, tracking the leaders. Jamie Spencer clearly saw the situation because it looked like he deliberately delayed his challenge on City Leader to ensure he kept his rival boxed in until the last possible moment.

Spencer said go with about two furlongs to go and soon took a narrow lead. A few seconds later Scintillo was steered out to the centre of the course to chase him. But City Leader had flown and was stretching away. Scintillo closed the gap down to three quarters of a length at the line but it was a sprint finish, thanks to the slow early pace, so he couldn't do any more than that.

If the race had been run at a strong pace and Scintillo hadn't been boxed in my feeling is that the result would still have been the same as City Leader was picking up so strongly in the last one hundred yards. But it's hard to say for sure. The only thing I'd be confident about is that in a truly run race the first two would have drawn a lot further clear of the rest. My guess is that City Leader would have earned a speed rating of 39 and Scintillo 38 which tags the race as being Group 2 class.

Jamie Spencer said afterwards that City Leader would be better on a flatter track, so he's heading to Ascot for the King Edward VII Stakes rather than Epsom. He looks the logical favourite for that race. And if he wins it, his connections will surely be tempted to take up the horse's engagement in the Grand Prix de Paris in mid July.

Scintillo ran a close third to City Leader in last year's Royal Lodge, where he again had to be switched for a run. He would have won his other three juvenile starts over a mile or a stiff seven furlongs but for going under by a head to the useful McCartney in a Listed race where once more he had to be switched for a run.

This year a mile has clearly been too short for Scintillo. He showed here that he's once more going to be competitive in Group company now that he's running over longer trips.

At this point it's too early to say for sure. But Scintillo is beginning to look like a younger version of Saddex in that he seems to hoover up all the available traffic and is probably best in smaller fields.

UNDER THE RAINBOW WORTH ANOTHER TRY OVER TEN FURLONGS

FOLK OPERA (38) produced her best ever performance to come from off a strong pace and take a good Listed race over twelve furlongs at Haydock. In fact it was a Group 3 in all but name and the time reflects this.

Folk Opera would now have won all four times she's run ten furlongs or more if that close finish in last year's Lingfield Oaks Trial had gone her way. Clearly she's a useful filly. But she had nothing in reserve here in a race run at a searching gallop. So logically this is almost certainly as good as she is.

I suspect Folk Opera will take a Group 3 sometime this season. I'd be surprised if she proved competitive with the top fillies in Group 1 company though.

The interesting one for me, at least from a betting standpoint, is the runner-up UNDER THE RAINBOW (37).

This was Under The Rainboiw's eighteenth loss in a row. And previously I've attributed this losing streak to her lack of acceleration. But now I'm wondering whether it's not a lack of stamina instead. I say this because she came through from the back with the winner to catch the tear away front runner MIRAMARE (36) but tired visibly in the last half furlong. She pretty much stopped to a walk, allowing Miramare to start catching up to her again even though that one was out on her feet.

Under The Rainbow ran her best ever race when finishing second to Promising Lead over ten furlongs last time. Promising Lead is a very smart Group 1 filly who I've suggested might actually be fast enough to beat colts in a Group 1. The other twelve most recent runs of Under The Rainbow were over a mile and a half or more.

Under The Rainbow's two wins came over a mile and ten furlongs. I'd like to see her go back to ten furlongs in the near future where she'd surely be a decent betting proposition to take a Listed race, especially if she had soft ground or an uphill finish to offset her lack of acceleration.

Miramare ran an entertaining race, charging off into a huge lead at a scorching pace. The record of her jockey, Jamie Spencer, shows that he brings horses from off the pace more than any of the other top jockeys and rarely goes for the lead. But here he probably reckoned that the strong tailwind up the straight might well help his mount last home and enable him to catch his rivals napping. He was very nearly right.

Miramare has a really long stride and, rather like Under The Rainbow, no real acceleration at all. But she clearly has masses of stamina as she was rallying late despite setting that incredibly fast gallop. It will be interesting to see how she does on softer ground or over a longer trip. Rather well I suspect.

MAD RUSH LOOKS LIKE CUMANI'S EBOR HORSE

During the Winter a lot of people try to find the horse Willie Mullins is going to win the Cheltenham Festival Bumper with. During the Summer the same people probably try to find Luca Cumani's big contender for the Ebor. This year I reckon it's going to be MAD RUSH (38).

Mad Rush is a good-bodied, classy looking sort who had to weave his way through the field to deliver a storming late run when second to the multiple Grade 1 winning hurdler PUNJABI (38) at Newmarket. He was closing in on the winner with remarkable speed in the closing stages and would have got up in another stride or two.

Mad Rush has improved markedly with each one of his five lifetime starts according to my speed ratings and ended up going under narrowly to Hi Calypso in the Bibury Cup on his final outing last season.

It's tempting to conclude that Hi Calypso improved when taking Group 3 and Group 2 races on her next two starts. But my speed ratings indicate she ran pretty much as fast in the Bibury Cup. It was simply a red hot handicap, as it usually is.

Mad Rush has now run a pattern class time twice in a row. If he'd had luck in running two runs back and hadn't come up against Group class rivals on his last two outings he'd have won all four of his starts since his losing racecourse debut. He's lightly raced like most Ebor winners and looks the ideal type for that contest. Quite where he goes in between then and now I don't know. But wherever he runs he'll be a threat next time.

Punjabi showed here that he's almost as good on the flat as he is over hurdles. But I'm not sure he's going to be easy to place despite his ludicrously low official handicap mark. I say this because I suspect he's best in small fields.

Punjabi did win a novice hurdle and a couple of class 6 contests on the flat in big fields. But he's lost ten times out of ten in fields of eleven or more in better company. He's won the last five times he's run in smaller fields.

ELHAMRI LOOKS VERY INTERESTING FOR VODAFONE DASH

ELHAMRI (38) apparently didn't grow from two to three. But he certainly must have grown from three to four because he's now a big-bodied, powerful sort. He impressed me when winning a good five furlong sprint narrowly at Goodwood in fast time.

It was interesting that in the last fifty yards when he'd got the better of the runner-up SAFARI MISCHIEF (38) Elhamri's jockey only rode him out with hands and heels to keep a narrow margin. It looked like he was thinking of the horse's official handicap mark which has dropped a massive 26 pounds since his smart two year old season when he won two big races.

Toss out his three year old races and Elhamri has won four of the other five times he's raced on good or faster ground. He clocked a Group 3 class time here so is clearly as good as ever.

After seeing this run and the time he clocked I started scrambling through the form book to see what big handicaps Elhamri's connections might be thinking of. The obvious immediate target is the Vodafone Dash at Epsom's Derby meeting. Or there's the big sprint handicap at Musselburgh and a bit later the Rockingham Handicap at the Curragh. These are all over five furlongs, the distance Elhamri has won over so far. But from the way he was finishing here I'm not at all sure he won't get six furlongs which would make the Wokinghma and Stewards' Cup real possibilities.

In any event, it seems to me that Elhamri has a big chance of winning a valuable sprint handicap next time out.

Runner-up Safari Sunset seems best in races that demand as little stamina as possible - those over five furlongs, in fields of ten or less, on good or faster ground and on tracks without an uphill finish. He'd won four times out of five in these circumstances before this run and would have made if five out of six but for bumping into a Group class rival here. Obviously he's a bit hard to place but when he hits his favoured circumstances I'd be wary of opposing him.

SIXTIES ICON SHOULD GO FOR ARLINGTON MILLION

SIXTIES ICON (32) showed once more that he can produce a tremendous burst of speed off a slow early pace when taking the Festival Stakes at Goodwood. He simply ran away from his rivals in the closing stages, clocking a faster time from the end of the false rail than even the smart City Leader did off a slow pace in the big race the previous day.

So far Sixties Icon has run seven times in races where the early pace has been slow enough for the winner to earn a speed rating from me of 32 or less. His only two losses in those seven races were the Arc and when second to Getaway last time. And it's quite possible Getaway is the best middle-distance horse on the planet right now.

Sixties Icon has lost all five times he's run in more strongly run races, finishing unplaced on four of those occasions. This being so the logical target for him surely has to be the race his trainer talked about after his most recent win, the Arlington Million. American turf races like that are invariably run at a slow early pace. Most of the big races Sixties Icon could shoot for in Britain are not.

KISSING THE CAMERA A DECENT PROSPECT FOR CHESHAM

KISSING THE CAMERA (33) won a good maiden at Newmarket on her racecourse debut. And when I adjust her rating to reflect how fast she finished off the moderate early pace it suggests she's pattern class.

The race was a match between Kissing The Camera and runner up MISDAQEYA (33) all the way as they disputed the lead throughout. And despite showing her inexperience it was Kissing The Camera that prevailed.

Right from the start Kissing The Camera's ears showed she didn't really know what was expected of her. First her ears would be pricked as she became really interested in what was in front of her. Then they'd go back a bit as she became somewhat hesitant. Then they'd be pricked again. It was therefore not surprising she rolled about a bit in the final sprint for home. She ended up winning narrowly but a shade cozily, showing the same rather lazy, lolloping stride at the finish as she had throughout.

Kissing The Camera is built and bred for a good deal longer than six furlongs, so it's not surprising her connections nominated the Chesham Stakes over seven furlongs as her Royal Ascot target. I'd say she's a decent prospect for that race and will be interesting for big races for fillies over seven furlongs and a mile after that.

Misdaqeya already had a run under her belt and ran in a more organized manner. But she too should improve for a step up in distance on looks and pedigree. She doesn't seem likely to improve as much as the winner but it's early days yet. Misdaqeya should have no trouble taking her maiden and earning black type this season.

SHAMPAGNE WANTS LONGER THAN SIX FURLONGS

SHAMPAGNE (33) is a rather tall, long striding sort that looks as though he'll have no problem staying a mile at two. Certainly he showed decent improvement for the step up to six furlongs when striding away full of running to win a six furlong Conditions race at the very testing Pontefract.

I imagine Shampagne will be stepping up to seven furlongs next time out. He certainly looks capable of earning black type over that trip, perhaps in the Chesham Stakes.

I suggested after his impressive debut win that GO NANI GO (10) was unlikely to get an inch beyond five furlongs. So it was somewhat surprising to see him entered for a six furlong race on what race times indicate is the stiffest course in Britain. He certainly did himself no favours by throwing his head about and pulling like crazy early on. But the way he simply stopped to a near walk in the closing stages to finish a distant last suggests my initial observation was right.

Go Nani Go is a classy looking sort. Back over five furlongs on fast ground I still see him winning or placing in pattern company

UNNEFER SHOULD GO FOR GUILLAME D'ORNANO

Shortly after the field cantered down to the start for the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket they began cantering back again. If you'd just started watching you might have thought the jockeys were returning to the grandstand to report some sort of problem. In fact they were supposedly racing.

The race didn't actually begin until they hit the three furlong pole at which point everything started sprinting like crazy. The two best horses, UNNEFER (19) and PAMPAS CAT (18) quickly separated themselves from the pack and proceeded to dash to the line.

Unnefer was the quickest to get himself organised. Shortly after the sprint began Pampas Cat got slightly unbalanced for a few strides as he changed leads. And that was enough to ensure victory for Unnefer. At the pace they were going it was near impossible for Pampas Cat to gain any ground on his rival. He actually managed to though and was beginning to get to the winner in the last fifty yards. But nearing the line his jockey saw he wasn't going to close the gap and let him come home a length behind when he might have forced the margin down to as little as a neck by driving his mount to the limit.

I know from their form and past speed ratings that Unnefer and Pampas Cat can run to ratings around the 38-39 level. And it would have been nice to see them do that rather than turn the race into a three furlong sprint.

One thing the race did demonstrate is that Unnefer can produce a serious and sustained burst of speed off a slow early gallop. This being so I'm not at all surprised his connections talked about running him in the Prix Guillame D'Ornano afterwards.

The Prix Guillame D'Ornano is an unusually weak Group 2 because it's run at a time of year when the best French three year olds are mostly being rested with a view to an Autumn campaign. For this reason it's a pretty soft touch for a British raider. Indeed British-trained horses have won five of the last eight runnings.

Unnefer's stablemate Multidimensional took the big Deauville race back in 2006. I'd say Unnefer has a major chance of emulating him.

It's hard to gain much insight from such a farcically run race. But my feeling is that Pampas Cat is going to prove best over a mile and a half rather than the mile and a quarter of this contest. I'd be pretty confident he'd have won this race well if it had been over the longer trip.

LOOK BUSY CAN WIN A GROUP RACE

LOOK BUSY (39) clocked a seriously fast time for a three year old filly when winning a good Conditions race over five furlongs at Beverley. She was always bang there in a very strongly run race and kept on strongly to draw away from her rivals in the closing stages.

Look Busy didn't look that well balanced at several points in the race and her record shows that she's hung and shifted her ground quite a few times. Clearly it's not that easy to keep her on an even keel and I suspect this is why her four wins have all come in fields smaller than twelve. In bigger fields I suspect she'd get herself into traffic problems.

It's possible that Look Busy could now stretch her stamina to six furlongs. But she does have the build of an out and out five furlong speedball, so I wouldn't like to bet on that until she's proven she does stay. I imagine her connections will be forced to make the attempt as there are many more pattern races over six furlongs than five.

My feeling at present is that Look Busy is best over five furlongs on fast ground. She might well have won the last six times she's run in such circumstances but for two half length defeats where she failed to keep a straight course.

Admittedly Look Busy is going to be hard to place. But if she can be found a five furlong Group 3 or Listed race on fast ground I'd like her chances. If she were mine I'd be inclined to ship her over to France where the competition in sprint races is much weaker.

PROMISING LEAD WORTH TRYING AGAINST COLTS

PROMISING LEAD (40) was the joint fastest three year old filly last season according to my speed ratings. And that's saying something because it was a vintage year for three year old fillies. She ended up the season by losing the Prix L'Opera in a photo to Satwa Queen who I rate one of the best racemares in recent years.

On her seasonal debut Promising Lead didn't have any Group 1 horses against her when taking the Group 3 Middleton Stakes in good style. But she still clocked a proper Group 1 time for a filly. She moved smoothly into the lead and kept pulling clear in the closing stages despite looking to blow up through lack of fitness close home.

If two photo finishes had gone the other way Promising Lead would have won all five times she's run on the fast ground she seems to need. She is awfully good. So I'd like to see her given a shot against colts sometime. I see her connections have a similar idea as they have her entered up in the Eclipse, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc.

Runner-up UNDER THE RAINBOW (37) lacks a turn of foot and almost certainly needs much softer ground or a longer trip to pull her into the race. She has now lost seventeen times in a row but keeps on running fast enough to win a Listed or Group 3 contest. When she gets softer ground or a longer trip I'd consider her carefully.

FROZEN FIRE THE DANGER TO CASUAL CONQUEST AT EPSOM

When a race develops into a sprint finish it can look messy and unimpressive. You could say that about this year's Dante, but sectional times reveal it was actually a very decent contest.

The pace for the first couple of furlongs was strong as MCCARTNEY (29) was kicked into the lead, with his rider looking to be under instructions to deny CENTENNIAL (34) the soft lead that enabled him to win the Sandown Classic Trial. However once he'd established a lead he slowed up, allowing Centennial to join him, and they went a tad below top speed until beginning to wind things up again in the straight.

Over the last two furlongs the field were really moving and covered them 1.1 seconds quicker than the top class older filly Promising Lead did in the previous race. More significantly they came home half a second quicker over the last quarter mile than the useful older horse Charlie Farnsbarns did off a slower early pace over a slightly shorter trip later on the card. This indicates clearly that the winner of the Dante is at least three lengths per mile better than Charlie Farnsbarns, so I've adjusted the speed rating to reflect this.

McCartney showed a lot of knee action. So I'm inclined to think that despite those wins on fast ground at two he's going to need some cut in the ground to produce his best from now on. When he's not used as a pacemaker in future I'd bet on him winning again in pattern company on slower ground.

I knocked Centennial after his win at Sandown. But I have to say I liked the way he kept going despite being unsuited to the sprint finish. I think his trainer is right to regard him as a potential St Leger candidate who will improve for a greater test of stamina.

TWICE OVER (38) was understandably hot favourite on the basis of his win in the Craven Stakes in fast time. And halfway up the straight as the final sprint began he looked to be going best as he edged into a very narrow lead for a few strides. However he was then caught by the eventual winner TARTAN BEARER (40) who began to edge away from him. Twice Over rallied a furlong out but was just outrun through the final furlong as he steadily ceded ground to the first and second.

Twice Over's blood was found to be slightly wrong after this race, so I think we need to see him again before buying into his trainer's initial idea that he was found out by the distance of the race. After all Twice Over won a strongly run ten furlong race at two and he certainly has the physique of a middle distance runner.

Despite having had only two previous runs Tartan Bearer ran like an old pro, and this won him the race. He lobbed along in last place, made a big move to close up just before the pace picked up, took the lead off Twice Over and then held on most determinedly as FROZEN FIRE (40) was brought across the track to fight out the finish with him.

This was clearly a big run by Tartan Bearer that establishes him as one of the top three year olds. But my gut feel is that he's not going to win the Derby.

Tartan Bearer lacks the push-button acceleration that most top class middle-distance horses possess. He took a long time to get into his stride and put his opponents away when winning his maiden and simply kept grinding away here in a long, hard fought finish. I find it hard to see him holding off a horse like Casual Conquest that's shown such a serious turn of foot while running faster.

In addition it seems to me that Frozen Fire is a better horse than Tartan Bearer because he ran rather green yet still ran him to a photo.

In the early stages Frozen Fire was pulling for his head. And as the sprint finish began he found himself racing on the rail, six or eight horse widths away from where the action was in the center of the track.. His jockey brought him across swiftly to battle it out with the winner. But Frozen Fire was racing with his head slightly in the air and didn't seem to be fully focused like the winner.

Like so many German breds Frozen Fire looks sure to improve for the step up to a mile and a half. He's a good looking, mature, tall sort who clearly got a bit outpaced in the Racing Post Trophy and is wanting longer distances.

WILL LUSH LASHES STAY A MILE AND A HALF?

LUSH LASHES (39) clocked a very good time for a three year old filly to win the Musidora. But I'm not convinced she's a cert for the Oaks, whether she goes for the Epsom or Irish version. Her physique seems like that of a ten furlong horse to me. And watching the race I got the impression that she wouldn't have kept going for much longer than the extended ten furlongs.

The dam's side of Lush Lashes doesn't have any obvious influences for longer than ten furlongs, so I'm inclined to go with my visual impressions and bet that she's going to prove best over ten furlongs and won't stay twelve.

In addition, if she goes to Epsom it has to be a concern that Lush Lashes ran around for a few strides in front at York. She'd got unbalanced going into the dip at Newmarket as well. So one has to wonder just how well she'll handle the notorious counter camber and steep downhill run into the homestraight at Epsom.

Having said that I will readily concede that this was a Group 1 performance on the clock. So if Lush Lashes does fail to get home in the Epsom or Irish Oaks I will be wary of opposing her when she cuts back to ten furlongs again.

CERITO LOOKS GOOD FOR ROYAL ASCOT

CERITO (36) streaked away with a five furlong maiden run at a searching pace all the way at Bath, clocking a proper Group class time. He's so mature he already looks like a three year old and is clearly a major candidate for Royal Ascot. But the way he had to be niggled along to go the strong pace and was going so strongly at the finish makes me wonder whether five furlongs is his right distance. If he were mine I'd be inclined towards the Coventry over six furlongs rather than the Norfolk or Windsor Castle over five. Still, whatever race he goes for at the big meeting Cerito will merit very serious consideration.

PROLIFIC IS A VERY GOOD SPRINTER

PROLIFIC (36) was most impressive when cruising home on his racecourse debut at Newmarket. As is so often the case in two year old races the early pace wasn't strong. But they picked it up markedly to cover the last three furlongs 1.2 seconds faster than older sprinters in a handicap later on the card. Factoring that in suggests a proper Group class speed rating for Prolific.

Prolific certainly looked a Group racer as he sauntered away in the closing stages despite running green. He's clearly a very good sprinter that will be tough to beat in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. He looks a typical son of his sire Compton Place to me in that I'd bet on him proving best over the minimum trip and on fast ground.

US RANGER PROBABLY WANTS LONGER

ASSERTIVE (41) has earned a whole string of big speed ratings from me and did so again when taking the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes. However I'm not sure he's going to hold his form.

Although he's apparently hard to get fit at home and always seems to need his seasonal debut, Assertive has yet to win in fourteen starts after June. He's won five times out of eleven in June or earlier when you exclude his seasonal debut, and five times out of nine when you also omit races over anything but his specialist trip of six furlongs.

Runner-up WAR ARTIST (41) would probably have won all five of his starts in South Africa over five and six furlongs but for going under in a three way photo in a Group 1 when shifting away from the whip with a furlong to go at Scottsville (he probably got unbalanced in the dip at that track as many horses do at Newmarket in Britain).

War Artist has run faster with each of his three UK starts and ran fast enough here to be seriously considered for the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He's clearly got a lot of ability and is very consistent. And I don't really know how much more improvement he has left in him.

The horse that was visually most impressive in the race was fourth placed US RANGER (39) who made a big late move. US Ranger was drawn away from where the main action took place so was probably at a disadvantage.

Last year US Ranger ran fast enough to have won the Duke Of York when skating home in remarkably fast time at the Curragh. He should have improved a bit since then because he was only a three year old at the time.

That win at the Curragh was on yielding ground. It may well be that US Ranger needs longer than six furlongs to be fully effective on ground as fast as it was at York.

I know that a lot of pundits are now touting US Ranger for the Golden Jubilee. But I am inclined towards the view that he's going to do better when stepped back up in trip. After all he's by Danzig, and a search I carried out on Raceform Interactive shows that the other ten most highly rated progeny of Danzig in the last twelve years were all best over at least seven furlongs. Everything on the dam's side of US Ranger's pedigree screams one mile plus as well. And it's hard to get away from the fact that three of his five wins have come over a mile and another was over seven furlongs.

US Ranger was able to lay up with the leaders and even make the running when he scored his wins over seven furlongs and a mile. He's come from well back the two times he's gone six furlongs. Maybe the searching early pace of the Golden Jubilee will pull him into the race. But as I see it US Ranger is bred to go longer, he runs like he wants to go longer and he's already won four times over longer. This prompts me to invoke the principle that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then in all probability it is a web-footed swimming bird of the family Anatidae.

CAPTAIN WEBB STAYS ALL DAY

CAPTAIN WEBB (37) lost his unbeaten record in a hot ten furlong handicap at Sandown . But he made it four wins from five starts when stepped up in distance to take the Listed Glasgow Stakes over eleven furlongs at Hamilton.

Early on the jockey on the pace-setting Meeriss tired to slow things down up front. Greg Fairley on Captain Webb was having none of it. As soon as Meeriss slowed he booted Captain Webb into the lead and let him use his huge stride fully.

With two furlongs to go a lot of whole wall of horses closed in on Captain Webb and he began to run around a bit in front as he had in previous starts. But inside the final furlong his stamina really kicked in and he strode majestically away from all his rivals.

Captain Webb may have zero acceleration but he has bags of stamina. He's a big, tall, national hunt sort that any jumps trainer would give their eye teeth for. The obvious long term objective for him on the flat is the St Leger. But meanwhile he must have a decent shot of emulating the all the way win of his stablemate Boscobel in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

SPIN CYCLE WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT IN NATIONAL STAKES

SPIN CYCLE (34) almost broke Hamilton's five furlong course record when winning his second start in impressive style. Restrained behind the ferocious pace set by PENINSULAR WAR (30), Spin Cycle picked that one up a furlong out and went away in good style late.

Spin Cycle is a close-coupled sprinting sort with a daisy-cutting stride which indicates a need for fast ground. He already looks like a three year old. Assuming that the journey down South doesn't upset him he looks the one to beat in the National Stakes at Sandown. I mention the concern about the journey because he got upset before his racecourse debut and was saddled away from the other horses this time in the stables. Right now the best explanation for this is simply nerves due to inexperience. But if he flops in the National Stakes it may be he needs to race closer to his home stables up North.

Peninsular War set the pace which enabled the winner to run so fast. He buried the rest of the field by six lengths and looks a slam dunk to win his maiden next time. I'd bet on him running faster as he learns to pace himself better.

GLAMOROUS SPIRIT PROBABLY NEEDS FASTER GROUND

GLAMOROUS SPIRIT (32) looked a good thing to win a Conditions race at Newbury following her impressive racecourse debut win. But she didn't quite get here and finished a close third.

It seems to me that the racecourse commentator got it right when saying that Glamorous Spirit appeared to be floundering on the softer ground as she attempted to gain on the leaders with a furlong and a half to go. She did close in rather impressive style from there all the way to the line. But she was showing a daisy-cutting stride as she did so and looked uncomfortable on the surface.

Glamorous Spirit won on ground that I rated 'super-fast' on her racecourse debut. That is, the going was literally as quick as it could be. Here it was over four seconds a mile slower and on the slow side of good, if not yielding.

I still see Glamorous Spirit as a big player for the Queen Mary.

The winner MOSS LIKELY (34) has the build and pedigree of a miler but has now managed to win two in a row over five furlongs. I'm inclined to think that she's simply been trained to go five furlongs like so many early two year olds trained by Channon and Hannon. I don't think this short a trip is natural for her and would bet on her needing longer to be effective in pattern company.

Runner-up APRIL PRIDE (34) is also built and bred to go longer. But I can see why Hannon has persevered with her over five furlongs instead of waiting till longer races become available as he initially said. April Pride is a big, strong, mature filly and this gives her an edge despite the inadequate distance this early in the season. Like the winner, I don't see her winning in pattern company over five furlongs. But over six or seven there are decent races to be won with her.

LIGHT HEARTED CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

LIGHT HEARTED (36) came close to the six furlong track record at Brighton when winning a maiden by eight lengths. But her fast time wasn't entirely due to the strong tailwind. This muscular, good looking filly is pretty smart and certainly looks capable of earning black type.

Light Hearted has a beautiful flowing stride that's designed for firm ground. She does look built for sprinting and nothing else.

CLIFTON DANCER CAN TAKE A LISTED RACE

CLIFTON DANCER (36) made almost all the running to take what is often a hot fillies handicap over seven furlongs at Newbury. I liked the way she rallied when the runner-up Shabiba (35) made a run at her in the closing stages. This suggests to me that she could actually run a bit quicker in a better race.

The dam's side of Clifton Dancer's pedigree contains nothing but sprinters. But she's by the miler Fraam and certainly has the build of a miler rather than a sprinter.

Clifton Dancer has now won both times she's run beyond six furlongs on good or faster ground. Over seven furlongs or a mile on good going I see her as a very decent proposition to win a Listed race against her own sex.

TRANQUIL TIGER A USEFUL STAYER

TRANQUIL TIGER (38) ran his rivals into the ground when making all at a good pace to win the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury. He's a great big tall, long striding sort who has proven hard to steer in the past. So I suspect he's always going to prove best in small fields. So far he's won three of the four times he's run in single figure fields beyond a mile and a half. He might well improve for the step up to two miles and looks a likely sort for the big Cup races from now on.

DON'T UNDER-RATE CREACHADOIR

If I had my way all slow run races would be declared void and re-run till the jockeys decided to go a decent early gallop. But of course that's never going to happen, so I can only conjecture on how fast CREACHADOIR (34) would have run in the Lockinge Stakes if they'd gone a proper pace for the first five furlongs.

As it is Creachadoir was always prominent and stretched away well to win by three parts of a length - which is a pretty decent margin for a sprint finish.

I would be wary of under-rating Creachadoir simply because the race made him look unimpressive. The fact is he's run a really big race or won all eight times he's run seven furlongs or a mile on fast ground. The most recent time he met these circumstances before the Lockinge saw him run a short head second to Good Ba Ba who is now officially rated the world's leading miler.

The obvious objective for Creachadoir now is the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race that his connections always try hard to win. He should have a great shot there.

Further back in the field I rather liked the performance of Australian import HARADASUN (31) who got outpaced when the gallop quickened but had just began to close strongly when squeezed out inside the final furlong.

Haradasun is a great big strapping sort who looked a potential champion when he won back to back Group 1's in March and April last year. Seeing that he was very well bred (by Fusaichi Pegasus out of the dam of Elvstorem) Coolmore stepped in and bought a half share in him for about eleven million pounds. Sod's law being what it is Haradasun promptly lost seven times in a row.

The generally accepted explanation for Haradaus's losing streak Down Under is that he is a slow starter and gets caught out wide when he gets a high draw, which has happened five times to him in recent starts. In the Lockinge he again got caught flat-footed, this time when the pace picked up.

In the early part of his career Haradasun had problems with his feet. On his latest run in that losing sequence of seven he finished lame while turning in his worst ever performance. The suspicion has to be that the problems with his feet caught up with him once more. But now there looks to be a good chance he's over the problem thanks to a six and a half month break.

Previous top class Australian imports have needed their first European run unless they've been sprinters. I'm betting that was the case with Haradasun here. Next time off a stronger pace or back over ten furlongs I'd be rather interested in his chances.

Phoenix Tower (33) chased the winner home but was in a bunch finish for second place. I'm not yet convinced he's going to prove that good. He was very promising earlier but has had a major injury since and in my experience horses rarely fulfill their early potential when that happens.

I honestly don't know what to make of the other runners as the pace probably skewed the result. A couple of seven furlong runners - Tariq and Arabian Gleam - finished close up. But I'd be wary of assuming this proved they stay a mile because the early pace was so slow. In addition Ascot specialist Cesare was involved in the bunch finish for second. But I wouldn't assume this means he's suddenly able to show his best away from his favourite track.

I AM THE BEST SHOULD WIN NEXT TIME

I AM THE BEST (34) ran a tremendous race on his racecourse debut to go under narrowly to the smart previous winner NORTHERN TOUR (34) at Newmarket. He looked sure to get up for a long time but was just denied in a race that developed into a flat out sprint finish, having been slow run to halfway.

I Am The Best is actually Listed class in my estimation, so he should have no difficulty winning a maiden next time.

I Am The Best is a mature sort, unlike Northern Tour who is narrow and noticeably weak up front. But that didn't stop Northern Tour winning for the second time in a row.

Northern Tour is certainly capable of earning black type on what he's shown so far. Though I'm sure the six furlongs of this race is as far as he wants to go, at least for now while he's so weak and immature.

MANZILA LOOKS A BIG PLAYER FOR BALLYOGAN STAKES

Dandy Nicholls does seem to have a magic touch with sprinters. So it's no big surprise that he conjured the best ever performance out of the ex-French mare MANZILA (39) when she won a five furlong handicap at Thirsk.

Manzila won a six furlong Listed race in France (she also broke her maiden over a mile. And she certainly looked like she'd improve for a step back up to six furlongs here as she was niggled along to keep up early and only started dominating late. This being so the six furlong Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes looks a good target for her. She'll almost certainly be the fastest runner in that race on my speed ratings and should be tough to beat.

ALLIED POWERS NEEDS AT LEAST TWELVE FURLONGS

ALLIED POWERS (36) was seriously impressive when winning at Chester's big May meeting. However over a furlong shorter and off a slower early pace he took quite a while to put away his rivals at Newbury. He was going away at the finish as his stamina finally kicked in but I'd be wary of betting him over less than twelve furlongs in future. In fact, seeing that three of his four siblings are hurdlers I suspect he's going to stay the Leger trip.

Allied Powers earned a slightly bigger speed rating from me at Chester and looks to have a real chance of winning the valuable King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot next time. As long as the early pace is strong enough that is.

CHANGING SKIES THE HORSE TO TAKE OUT OF CHESHIRE OAKS

SAIL (37) clocked a decent time to win a rather oddly run renewal of the Cheshire Oaks. They went a bit too fast for most of the first half mile, slowed up to go a little too slow and then sprinted the final two furlongs. The changes in pace didn't faze Sail who was several lengths behind when the sprint to the line began. She always looked like she was going to get by the runner up SUGAR MINT (37) despite racing a bit green. She did so inside the last furlong and was edging away, still moving strongly, in the closing stages.

Sail was without doubt the best looking horse in the race, being a muscular mature, tall, good-bodied really classy looking sort.

Sail ran horribly green when going under to the useful Beach Bunny on her seasonal debut. She kept sticking her head up in the air and wandered all over the place in that race but still closed the gap rapidly on the winner in the closing stages because she was traveling so well. I reckon she would have been a wide margin, comfortable winner if she'd known more about racing. She certainly improved a great deal to race much more professionally here. But jockey Johnny Murtagh noted "she is still a little timid and will have learnt a lot today."

Clearly Sail should move forward again as a result of this run and she's certainly a very decent Group class filly. But my feeling is that she needs at least another run and a little more time before she'll be organized enough to have a shot in Group 1 company.

Runner-up Sugar Mint ran like an old hand and got first run on the winner in the dash for home, so there's no logical reason for her to improve on this admittedly Group class run. I'd tag her as a Group 3 filly.

Sugar Mint is a big strong deep chested filly who looks built to stay the St Leger distance. She only had to be kept up to her work to beat the useful Duntulum in a Bath maiden on her previous start where the pair pulled clear of the rest. Duntulum franked that form by winning a 0-105 handicap on the Guineas card next time despite losing a lot of ground at the start.

For the immediate future the horse I reckon we should take out of the race is third-placed CHANGING SKIES (35).

Changing Skies didn't seem to be liking the track at any stage and had trouble holding her position even when the pace was slow. With two furlongs to run, when the sprint to the line began, she was about six lengths back. So she did very well to end up being third by two and a quarter lengths. In fact she came home up the straight faster than any horse in any race on the entire card which included two five furlong sprints. She was really flying inside the last furlong in particular, picking up strongly as she finally had a straight stretch to stride out on.

You couldn't ask for a better pedigree than Changing Skies'. She has had five siblings to race. Four of them were Group racers. And the two best ones - Percussionist and Playful Act were the two by the same sire.

Changing Skies certainly ran like a potential Group racer when second in a hot looking ten furlong maiden at the first Newbury meeting (middle distance maidens at the first Newbury and Newmarket meetings usually attract pattern class performers).

In that race Changing Skies sat in second place, five lengths off the eventual winner Burning The Breeze who was allowed to set a very slow pace. Three furlongs out Burning The Breeze quickened up and sprinted for home, catching Changing Skies flat footed. Changing Skies tried to close with gap with great determination, but it was only in the last 100 yards that her undoubted stamina finally came into play and she began to close the gap. By then it was too late and she wasn't pushed that hard in the last fifty yards.

Changing Skies ran very professionally in that race, showing not the slightest sign of greenness in the closing stages. She just kept worrying away at the winner and it looked like she'd have got by if there had been another furlong. She's certainly bred to go a longer trip. She's a bit light-framed but still has a bit of substance and class about her. The way she kept going so strongly last time and the way she finished here suggests to me that she's smart. Over a mile and a half on a more galloping track I see her improving significantly. So it is with great interest I note she is entered in the Ribblesdale Stakes. I like her chances of taking that.

TAJAAWEED NAILED ON TO STAY DERBY TRIP

TAJAAWEED (38) may not be bred to stay a mile and a half. But this big, tall, long striding colt is certainly built to go the distance and ran like he was crying out for a step up to the Derby trip when winning the Dee Stakes.

Tajaaweed came from well back to engage in a spirited duel with runner-up UNNEFER (38) up the homestraight before prevailing narrowly.

The early pace of the Dee Stakes was not the stop-go style it had been in the Cheshire Oaks and Chester Vase. Thanks to the pacemaking efforts of Latin Lad and Sligo it was strong throughout. But that didn't stop Tajaaweed from coming home up the straight a full second quicker than Macarthur managed in the Ormonde Stakes. And he was going so strongly at the finish he galloped out for about another furlong before he slowed down enough for his jockey to pull him up.

Clearly Tajaaweed will need to improve on this run to have a serious chance in the Derby. But over the extra 355 yards in the Derby that is certainly possible.

Unnefer ran a big race to pull clear with the winner and go under by a nose. Trainer Henry Cecil says this narrow well balanced colt didn't quite get the last half furlong. He also said he'd prefer more cut in the ground. Given his physique I'd say he probably now needs a rest too.

ACHILL ISLAND (34) was moving well as they approached the straight and looked set to take a hand in the finish. But when he was set down for his run his stride pattern altered noticeably and he strode out really short all the way up the straight, allowing the first two to sprint away from him.

Achill Island did break his maiden on fast ground. But he only won by a neck from a horse that is still a maiden after eight starts. All his other previous starts had been with some cut in the ground. On what I saw here he was feeling the ground and needs it softer. So until he proves me wrong I'm going to bet on that assumption.

The Godolphin acquisition ALEXANDROS (32) was too keen in the early stages and took a bump when coming wide off the home turn. But he ended up running a reasonable fourth.

When he was trained by Andre Fabre last year Alexandros was one of the fastest two year olds of last season according to my speed ratings. And he always looked like he'd benefit from a step up to middle distances. It's worth noting that although Godolphin's acquisitions from Fabre have included many of their best ever horses they seem to take a while to get used to their new surroundings.

Over the last dozen years Godolphin have picked up 27 horses from Fabre. The 16 that made their first starts for their new stable before June 15th all lost. Five of the eleven that debuted for Godolphin later on won at the first time of asking. This being so, and given the atrocious current form of Godolphin, I'd bet on Alexandros improving significantly on this effort.

ALLIED POWERS IS SMART

ALLIED POWERS (37) simply cruised away with a hot twelve furlong three year old handicap at Chester. His rider, Jamie Spencer, was able to look back over his shoulder before allowing him to come home in his own time instead of asking for another effort in the last furlong. It looked like Allied Powers could have opened up by another two or three lengths which is quite something seeing that he still ended up clocking what is a Group class time for a three year old this early in the year.

Allied Powers has not really filled his frame yet, so he clearly has scope for improvement. I've no idea just how good he'll prove to be but I certainly wouldn't want to be opposing him in handicap company right now.

DEADLY ENCOUNTER SHOULD TAKE BRIAN YEARDLEY 2YO TROPY

DEADLY ENCOUNTER (34) was most impressive when taking a maiden by nine lengths on his racecourse debut at Beverley. He didn't clock a great time but accelerated visibly in the closing stages, to come home 0.26 of a second faster over the last three furlongs by my estimates than Namir did in the handicap for older horses over the same trip.

As he was asked to stretch out in the final furlong Deadly Encounter changed his legs a couple of times but finally got himself organized and scarpered right away form his rivals to win full of running. It looked like he would have had no problem running another couple of furlongs either.

Deadly Encounter is certainly not built like a five furlong horse (he's a rather narrow and lengthy long striding sort that looks like a miler) so I'd like to see him step up to six furlongs if he runs on anything but a very stiff track like Beverley. That won't be an issue next time however as he's set to return to Beverley for the Brian Yeardley Two Year Old Trophy. No doubt he'll be a short priced favourite for that, and on this run he deserves to be. Though I should add he has a fast ground action. If it came up soft I'd be concerned.

MACARTHUR NEEDS TO RUN FASTER

MACARTHUR (38) certainly looked impressive as he came right away from his field in the Ormonde Stakes. But the clock says he didn't improve on anything he's done before. His apparently strong finishing kick was due more to his rivals tiring than to any great speed on his part. He actually came home a full second slower up the straight than Tajaaweed did in the Dee Stakes.

Having said that, a horse can do no more than win impressively. And it's now looking like Coolmore have themselves another decent candidate for the top mile and a half races. I don't know what all the talk was about concerning the Ascot Gold Cup after the race. I'd agree with his jockey that he's essentially a twelve furlong horse. I await his next run with interest but will be betting he's not up to Group 1 class until he proves otherwise.

DOCTOR FREMANTLE DOES IT NICELY

DOCTOR FREMANTLE (38) impressed me when clocking a Group class time to run second in a hot Newmarket handicap. And he impressed me again when stepping up to Group company to take the Chester Vase.

While everything else in the race seemed to be having problems with the tight turns or with settling at the stop-go pace Doctor Fremantle relaxed as he hugged the rail and was always moving comfortably. His jockey kept him on the rail, knowing that it would fall away to leave a gap entering the straight. And when that gap came he booted Doctor Fremantle into it and quickly became involved in a flat out sprint up the straight with the clearly smart runner up ALL THE ACES (38).

Only seriously good horses can come away as quickly form their rivals as Doctor Fremantle and All The Aces did in the closing stages. And Doctor Fremantle was always going that bit better. In fact if the early pace or the going had been more testing I suspect he'd have won by a couple of lengths instead of just half a length. Certainly he was still full of run and going away at the line.

I don't know yet if Doctor Fremantle is going to prove a Group 1 horse. He does seem to stay very well, so he could end up being a St Leger candidate. No doubt we'll learn more in the King Edward VII Stakes and the Irish Derby.

All The Aces showed that he could act on fast ground here despite his connections' previous worries on this score. This good-bodied, mature, classy looking sort had won his two previous tries beyond middle-distances and it looks like he too may develop into a St Leger candidate.

It looked like the third and fourth PAMPAS CAT (34) and FEARED IN FLIGHT (34) weren't at ease around the tight turning course. I'd bet on both of them leaving this form behind in future.

SABANA PERDIDA A TOP CLASS FILLY

SABANA PERDIDA (39) has run fast enough to win a Group 1 for fillies several times and did so again when winning a red hot renewal of the Chartwell Fillies Stakes at Lingfield.

Like many horses with a serious turn of foot, Sabana Perdida seems best on fast ground and in fields smaller than a dozen where she can avoid traffic. Her record at slightly less than a mile is also better than over a mile or more. Nonetheless she did run a good third in the Windsor Forest Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot last year and must have a shot of winning it this year. Personally though the race I want to see Sabana Perdida go for is the Prix Foret, the top seven furlong race in Europe - and very often a weak Group 1.

Runner up VERBA (38) is a pretty tall, long striding sort that's built and bred for a mile but managed to win over six on her seasonal debut. The time Verba clocked that day was amazing, and she ran almost as fast here.

Seeing that her dam and five of her six siblings stayed a mile it seems pretty amazing that a filly as smart as Verba was taken out of the French 1000 Guineas the day after this race. She deserves a shot at a Classic and will be very interesting if taking up her engagement in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

ALESSANDRO VOLTA CAN RUN FASTER

It's very hard to tell how good a horse is that wins a slow run race, especially when it runs as green as ALESSANDRO VOLTA (31) did in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He came wide off the home turn and then ran all over the place up the straight. But I liked the way he was asserting in the closing stages to win narrowly. His stamina looked to be helping him at that point. My feeling is that he's such a good looking horse and has run so promisingly he might just be Group 1. On the other hand it's hard to imagine a horse that's just run as green as this winning the Derby in a few weeks.

LOOK HERE SHOULD HAVE WON THE OAKS TRIAL

I hate slow run races as they're so often won by a horse that isn't the best contestant. This looked to be the case with this year's Lingfield Oaks Trial where LOOK HERE (30) got herself into all sorts of trouble and found herself well back when the sprint for home began. The way that she closed the gap on the winner Miracle Seeker (31) so remorselessly tells me she is the better filly.

Whether Look Here will prove good enough to take the Oaks I can't say. But she beat the smart Doctor Fremantle on her only other start and clearly has a lot of ability. In a more strongly run race at Epsom she's got to be interesting.

SEAMUS SHINDIG HAS IMPROVED

SEAMUS SHINDIG (37) came from far back to win a decent Goodwood sprint handicap with any amount in hand. His rider Amy Scott seemed reluctant to use the whip which leads me to think Seamus Shindig is a real 'bridle horse' that needs to do everything very easily. It could well be that the exaggerated waiting tactics which were used here for the first time have improved him markedly. He certainly ran faster than he ever has before and won full of running.

This big muscular sprinter with a huge white blaze is easy to pick out in a race and I think we'll be hearing more from him in his next few starts.

DOUGHNUT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SUPER SPRINT AT NEWBURY

DOUGHNUT (29) clocked a seriously fast time to win on her racecourse debut. But that was off a searching early pace set by Just The Lady. At Goodwood she showed that she really needs that sort of pace to produce her best.

The sectional times I took indicated that the early pace was remarkably slow for a five furlong race, so much so that they were able to run the final three furlongs almost three seconds faster than in the handicap for older horses (where they admittedly went off too fast and tired). Doughnut didn't like this at all. She fought for her head and had to be anchored in behind the other three runners. As a result she found herself too far behind to catch up when the final dash to the line began. Her jockey clearly thought she could do it at one point as he set her down and rode her along to close, which she duly did pretty smoothly. But in the last furlong when he saw she wasn't going to get there he eased her up.

The Super Sprint at Newbury has been Doughnut's target all along, and that race invariably features a very fast pace thanks to the huge field. So as I see it Doughnut remains very much the one they'll all have to beat.

Her stablemate ICEOSLATOR (33) won the race and is clearly pretty useful just on the borderline of pattern class. He should have a real shot of winning again when the turns out at Windsor on Monday.

GLAMOROUS SPIRIT A SERIOUS QUEEN MARY CONTENDER

As I've noted many times, two year old races invariably involve a slow pace for the first couple of furlongs, so you need to take account of the time they take to run the last three furlongs when assessing their merit. This approach leads me to believe that GLAMOROUS SPIRIT (36) may well be the best prospect for the Queen Mary we've seen so far following her debut win at Ascot.

The final time of the race was awful. But Glamorous Sprit came home over the last three furlongs more than a second quicker than they did in a good six furlong handicap later on the card. Trainer Jeremy Noseda said that the slow early pace didn't suit her and that she'll do better in a race run at a good pace all the way. The Queen Mary invariably fits this bill, so I'd say this good-looking, muscular sprinter will have a big chance there.

AGENTE PARMIGIANO (34) ran a good race to chase the filly home despite running a bit green. He looks likely to want a bit longer in time but should frank this form with a win in maiden company soon whatever trip he runs.

REBECCA DE WINTER A USEFUL JUVENILE SPRINTER

REBECCA DE WINTER (35) won a decent juvenile maiden race at Chester in taking style, coming away nicely up the straight despite changing her legs and running a little green. She's a mature, muscular, close-coupled, real sprinting sort with a daisy-cutting stride that's designed for firm ground.

As ever in baby races, the runners took a couple of furlongs to get themselves organized. But they came home over the last three furlongs faster than in the sprint handicap for older horses. So I've used sectional times to boost the rating for the race.

Connections mentioned either the National Stakes or the Hilary Needler as the next port of call for Rebecca De Winter before she joins the massed ranks of the Hannon juvenile team's annual assault on the Super Sprint at Newbury. She'd have a serious shot in all of those races. Though I have to say I'm not convinced she's going to get beyond five furlongs on looks or the way she ran here.

MYTHICAL BORDER IS USEFUL

MYTHICAL BORDER (32) won well on her racecourse debut at Lingfield despite running green as she came clear of her field. She's muscular and pretty mature looking though slightly on the small side. And she looks built to go at least another furlong.

As ever in two year old races they went a bit slow for the first couple of furlongs but came home just three tenths of a second slower than Zowington did in the next race over the last three furlongs. And Zowington lowered the track record.

It's tough to tell just how good Mythical Border is off this run. But it edges into Listed class territory on my ratings and it looks like she'll be able to improve on the effort with more experience.

RAVEN'S PASS SHOULD GO FOR IRISH GUINEAS

Kevin Manning will never ride a better race than he did aboard NEW APPROACH (40) in the 2000 Guineas.

Last year New Approach showed a very strong desire to lead at all costs. He threw his head around violently diring a race on two occasions when his jockey tried to get him to settle. And in the Dewhurst he seemed to show why he wanted to get clear of his rivals. In that race when restrained in amongst rivals he positively sulked and was going so badly after just three furlongs he had to be ridden along vigorously. He finally got up but it was a very messy, scrambling win.

In the Guineas it seemed to me there could only be one tactic that could accommodate what seems to be the claustrophobia of New Approach: Jump him into the lead and somehow keep him as far away from his rivals as possible. From draw 2, one off the stands rail, in a field of fifteen, I thought this couldn't be done and that even if New Approach somehow got the lead he'd be pressed to go too fast to last home by all the sprinters in the race.

As it turned out Manning managed the job brilliantly. He jumped New Approach out first and always had at least one horse width between himself and any rival. In addition, instead of being made to go too fast, he actually managed to slow the pace down and then wind it up while keeping a bit in reserve for when the eventual winner HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (40) challenged.

New Approach actually took the field through the four furlong mark in a time 0.8 seconds slower than in the preceding handicap over the same trip. From there he stepped on the gas, coming home 2.2 seconds quicker over the last half mile.

Strangely enough it was only on pulling up that New Approach threw his head around. There were a couple of points in the race, just after two furlongs and again at halfway, where it looked like he was about to do this. But Manning simply let out an inch of rein and New Approach relaxed again.

New Approach ran about as fast as you normally see a three year old go this early in the year. He is clearly a top class horse. What's more it's obvious from his pedigree and physique that he's crying out for middle distances. However I foresee a couple of problems.

The first problem is that in all his races after the Irish 2000 Guineas New Approach will have to race around a turn instead of up the straight or around a dog leg. And in races around a turn the horses run next to the running rail.

New Approach showed he had no problem negotiating a turn at Leopardstown. Indeed he was happy to set a slow gallop there But that was in a four horse race against inferior opponents where nothing was pressing him. How is he going to react in bigger fields around a turn which will ensure he has more horses racing close to him than ever before?

The second problem for New Approach is that if I'm right about him being what the Americans call a 'need to lead' front runner due to claustrophobia then he could be at a severe tactical disadvantage in several races. This is because European racing is dominated by three super stables, those run by Fabre, O'Brien and Suroor. And all three have so many high class horses to call on they frequently use pacemakers when this gives them an advantage. Against New Approach it's clearly going to give them an advantage.

In addition, every jockey in Europe now knows exactly how to ride a race to beat New Approach: Simply emulate Johnny Murtagh's ride on Henrythenavigator and use New Approach as a target. Basically New Approach is now a sitting duck for any jockey on board a horse with a turn of foot. This is because New Approach has a big stride and can only lengthen rather than quicken when challenged. Sit on his tail, spurt past him close home and don't give him time to respond. That's all any jockey with half a brain will be doing in future when riding against New Approach.

At this point I know that the connections of New Approach are talking about shooting for the Irish Derby. But if he were mine I'd be inclined to go for the Eclipse Stakes instead. The Eclipse Stakes invariably features a small field. It is run on a track that favours front runners. And it is over two furlongs less than the Irish Derby. Right now I'm concerned that despite being built and bred for the distance, the character of New Approach may prevent him lasting a mile and a half.

I was concerned about the slowness of the ground for Henrythenavigator seeing that he'd run below his best on soft and heavy last year. But although the time of the race was the second slowest of the last twenty running's of the race he handled the surface fine. In reality the going was only just on the slow side of good, what would be called good to yielding in Ireland.

Henrythenavigator did well to gain about eight lengths on New Approach seeing how the runner-up was able to quicken things up from halfway. He only ended up beating that one narrowly but I doubt it would be such a close run thing on faster ground or off a stronger gallop. It seems pretty clear Henrythenavigator is the miler while New Approach is the middle distance horse. Talk of Henrythenavigator going for the Derby is surely just that - talk.

The best candidate for the Irish 2000 Guineas from this race is surely fourth placed RAVEN'S PASS (35). He was held up in last place, made a huge move to progress into fourth two furlongs out but then bobbed up and down in the same spot thereafter. Clearly he wasn't suited by the slow surface. I know that I've doubted his stamina before and that his trainer, John Gosden, is now openly questioning it. But the fact is Raven's Pass ran a head second in very strongly run Craven Stakes to a top class rival when he wasn't fully fit. That run should have quashed any doubts anyone might have had about him getting the mile.

As I see it Raven's Pass didn't act on good to soft ground in the Dewhurst Stakes and he didn't act on good to yielding here. He has a real daisy-cutting stride that's designed for the firm ground we get in the Summer. And he has the build of a miler not a sprinter. I fervently hope that John Gosden doesn't go through with the idea of running him in the Jersey Stakes as I reckon Raven's Pass would have a huge chance of taking the Irish Guineas if it's run on the fast ground it normally is.

NATAGORA DOES IT

I hate slow run races because they make it impossible to produce accurate speed ratings. In addition it's hard to know which horses were helped or hindered by the slow early pace. It is with sadness therefore that I have to report the 1,000 Guineas was slow run and ended up in a bunch finish where the first seven home had intervals of half a length or less between them.

The right horse one as far as my previous ratings are concerned in NATAGORA (31) but it was a messy, scrambling win due to the slow pace she set.

The suspicion has to be that sprinting types like Infallible (30) and Nahoodh (30) finished closer than they would have done in a truly run race. Equally those that want a longer distance would have finished closer - notably the O'Brien pair Kitty Matcham (25) and Savethisdanceforme (23).

Basically I would not treat the form of this race at face value except insofar as the winner and runner up SPACIOUS (30) are concerned. Both would surely have done better in a more strongly run race. In fact I suspect they would still have finished 1-2 but have pulled much further clear of the rest.

I would be careful of buying into the idea that fifth placed Nahoodh would have won with a clear run. It's hard for a horse to gain much ground in a sprint finish, however well they may appear to be traveling. Besides she needs to prove she can stay in a truly run mile race anyhow.

FABRE HAS ANOTHER GERMAN STAR IN GETAWAY

Andre Fabre has forged a remarkably effective partnership with the big German stud farms in recent years. The added strength they've given his stable has enabled it to challenge Aiden O'Brien's yard for European dominance and rack up enormous annual prize money hauls of 5-6 million Euros.

In each of the past three years a horse sent to Fabre by one of the top German thoroughbred breeders has ended up being the best middle-distance runner in Europe. Now, following Hurricane Run, Shirocco and Manduro, there looks to be a serious chance Fabre has struck German gold for the fourth time in a row with GETAWAY (24).

Getaway looked to be a stayer before finishing a close fourth in the Arc. But he showed there that twelve furlongs is no problem for him. And he showed here that Fabre's suggestion he could do equally well over ten is not pie in the sky either. I say that because this was a very slow run race indeed which developed into a sprint finish. And Getaway was up against a rival in Sixties Icon (22) who is very effective indeed in slow run races. Yet Getaway made him look positively one paced as he sprinted clear in the last furlong.

If three very close finishes had gone the other way Getaway would now have won nine of his ten starts. Like many German horses he looks to have improved as a five year old. Given Fabre's record with such horses I'd be wary of opposing him in the Coronation Cup. And seeing how he successfully cut back Manduro to a mile I'll be inclined to take a positive view when Fabre puts Getaway over ten furlongs later on.

DR FAUSTUS IS PATTERN CLASS

DR FAUSTUS (37) put up a pattern class time to take a hot ten furlong three year old handicap at Newmarket. He was always moving best, quickly moved through to take it up about two furlongs out but didn't start to really go away until the last twenty strides when his stamina seemed to kick in. He extended his margin from just over a length to three lengths in that short space.

Dr Faustus is a big, tall, good-bodied sort who shows a bit of knee action. I'm not sure I'd like to bet him on a tight or undulating track as he looks a bit ungainly and hard to organise. And he surely would appreciate the step up to a mile and a half.

If somehow Dr Faustus fails to produce the goods in the pattern races he will surely now contest he'd make a very good hurdling prospect.

KANDAHAR RUN SHOULD GO FOR PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB

KANDAHAR RUN (25) failed to settle when too fresh on his seasonal debut but showed no signs of that when winning a ten furlong Listed race at Newmarket's Guineas meeting - despite the early pace being a crawl.

The significant thing, as I see it, was the smooth way that Kandahar Run kept up when the gallop quickened markedly three furlongs out and then edged away to win comfortably with his jockey looking over his shoulder. This showed that he will be able to cope admirably with the sprint finishes of French racing.

Seeing that trainer Henry Cecil previously said Kandahar Run was unlikely to stay much further than ten furlongs it makes sense to shoot for the Prix du Jockey Club over 10.5 furlongs rather than the Derby over twelve. I know he's now saying the horse will definitely get the mile and a half, but that's surely just 'Derby fever' working its usual magic.

Previously I have to say I've tagged Kandahar Run as a Group 2 or 3 horse. But seeing how well he won this I'm now not so sure. I now want to see him run off a stronger pace against better opponents before making that determination.

CAPTAIN GERRARD DOESN'T WANT IT ANY FASTER

CAPTAIN GERRARD (42) won the Palace House Stakes in seriously fast time after setting a scorching pace. Clearly he is a proper Group 1 horse over five furlongs.

The main factor with Captain Gerrard is the ground. Race times indicate it was only very slightly on the fast side of good here, right on the borderline of what Captain Gerrard can handle. To be specific it was riding 2.7 second per mile slower than the fastest it could be. Catain Gerrard has lost all three times he's run on going any faster than this. But his only loss over five furlongs in seven tries on ground this slow came at Goodwood. And a lot of horses that prefer cut in the ground dislike undulating  tracks because they increase the concussion they experience to their forelegs - just like firm ground does.

I don't really know where Captain Gerrard goes from here. Most likely the ground is going to be too fast for him from now all the way through to the Autumn. But whenever he runs on genuinely good or softer ground over five furlongs on anything but an undulating track I'd be wary of opposing him.

July Cup winner SAKHEE'S SECRET (42) showed he can be effective over five furlongs. Though one has to add that the searching pace and slightly slow ground made it more of a test than normal. He's a very high class consistent sprinter that's surely going to win another big one.

Third placed ENTICING (40) pressed the winner hard all the way. If the ground had been a bit faster she would surely have won as she prefers it that way and the winner doesn't. In addition the runner up would probably have found the trip a bit short on quicker ground.

Enticing has earned huge speed ratings from me and is very capable of taking a Group 1 over five furlongs if she gets lightning fast ground.

AJAAN LOOKS A SMART BET FOR DUKE OF EDINBURGH

I'm not sure I agree with the stewards who allowed AJAAN (38) to keep a good twelve furlong handicap at Newmarket after he swerved across the track and repeatedly smashed heavily into the second and third. But I've little doubt he was the best horse in the race, and I guess this is what swayed the stewards as well.

I guess the fact that the horses raced up the centre of the very wide track was what got Ajaan in trouble. He's hung before but never had so much real estate in which to indulge his bad habit.

Ajaan was always moving really well, showing that slightly short stride pattern of a horse that's set to explode into action with a burst of acceleration at any time. Unfortunately he swerved when he accelerated and ended up getting himself and the second and third into all sorts of trouble.

Ajaan earned a slightly bigger speed rating from me when lowering the course record at Pontefract last year. And I'm sure he'd have again hit a rating of 39, if he'd kept straight here.

Clearly twelve furlongs is Ajaan's distance. He's by a speedy sire and his dam nor any of her many siblings stayed beyond a mile and a half on the flat. True Ajaan did win over the Leger distance in a very slow run four runner race at Newmarket last year but failed to get the trip in a more strongly run race at Yarmouth next time. Besides he's built like a middle-distance horse rather than a stayer.

I'd peg Ajaan as a Group 2 horse on what I've seen so far. And it's obvious he's capable of winning much better races than handicaps. However there are a couple of good reasons for not jumping him up to Group company right away.

The first is that he's ludicrously well handicapped. He could get into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot off a very decent mark.

The second is that a valuable handicap like the Duke Of Edinburgh attracts a big field.This will mean Ajaan can find plenty of cover and be held up to produce that brilliant turn of foot he possesses.

Oddly enough, even though I'm convinced he doesn't stay beyond 12 furlongs in a true run race, the prize I'd be shooting for with Ajaan is the Melbourne Cup. That race is over two miles, but they don't go anything but a moderate early pace because the Aussie horses don't really stay that far. Ajaan showed last year that he can settle well enough off a slow pace to win at a longer distance. And he certainly has the turn of foot that's required to win the sprint finish the Melbourne Cup involves. I'd also like to see him given a shot at the Caulfield Cup beforehand where I'd give him a great shot.

Meanwhile the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes surely beckons where I see Ajaan as a good thing to give Henry Cecil his umpteenth Royal Ascot winner.

Runner-up CAMPS BAY (38) doesn't seem to stay beyond twelve furlongs either. But his form at ten to twelve furlongs is bomb-proof. He's a bit behind the winner on my ratings. However the Duke Of Edinburgh looks his logical target as well. He should have no trouble winning in Listed or Group 3 company alter on.

The giant SILVER SUITOR (37) has no acceleration whatsoever but did his usual thing of plodding on relentlessly to finish third after taking a hefty bump from the winner.

Clearly Silver Suit needs two miles plus not a mile and a half. And I'm not at all sure he's agile enough to win big handicaps which always attract huge fields. The only logical thing to do is forget about his very lenient official rating and run him in all the big Cup races. I see that trainer David Elsworth clearly agrees as he has Silver Suitor entered up in the Yorkshire Cup, Henry VII Stakes and Ascot Gold Cup.

I honestly don't know whether Silver Suitor will be good enough to win any of those races. But he's run a Listed class time on his last three starts at shorter trips and will surely improve for the step up in distance.

SALSA STEPS IS GROUP CLASS

SALSA STEPS (38) is a very big filly with a fantastic pedigree. And she looked very good indeed when running away from her rivals to win in Group class time at Windsor. She was stretching clear in tremendous style through the last furlong and will clearly appreciate at least a furlong more than the six furlongs she tried here. In fact, given her physique, pedigree and the way she finished I'd have no problem betting her over a mile.

Salsa Steps has a beautiful flowing, daisy-cutting stride that's designed for fast ground. She's now won both times she's run on a fast surface on turf. In her only start on Polytrack she finished a close second to the very smart Group winner Dalvina.

With her fancy pedigree the objective with Salsa Steps just has to be to get her some black type. Even a place in Listed company would probably add several hundred thousand pounds to her value as a broodmare. So I suspect her connections will forget about exploiting her laughably low official handicap rating and focus on pattern races. I note with interest they have her entered up in the Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot. She'd have a real shot there on this run and looks a slam dunk to win anything at a slightly lower level when she gets her ground.

It's worth noting that Salsa Steps had trouble handling Lingfield's tight turn when second to Dalvina, as one would expect with such a big filly. Therefore I wouldn't want to bet her on anything but a galloping course or up the straight.

MISSILE DODGER LOOKS A ROYAL ASCOT 2YO

MISSILE DODGER (33) made all the running at a strong pace to win impressively on his racecourse debut at Bath. He's a big, strong, good-bodied, muscular, close-coupled sprinting sort who already looks like a three year old. I've little doubt we'll be seeing him at Royal Ascot.

HELIODOR PROBABLY WANTS SEVEN FURLONGS

After his promising debut I thought HELIODOR (30) was a good thing to win a maiden at Newmarket. But it looks clear from the way he ran that he now needs to go up to six furlongs and really wants seven. In addition it turned out that he was up against a couple of very decent rivals in FINJAAN (35) and OUQBA (34).

The early pace is very often slow for the first couple of furlongs in two year old races. But here it was slow for the first three which forced me to use sectional times to rate the race.

Heliodor started to have problems as soon as they began sprinting from the two furlong pole. First he got caught rather flat-footed which is hardly surprising as they ran the last tow furlongs three tenths of a second quicker than in the big sprint which was fought out by a trio of Group 1 older horses.

When Heliodor got going again he found himself boxed in with nowhere to go. He first tried to go to the inside of Ouqba but then that one rolled towards the rail. Then when he tried to go the other side Ouqba rolled that way closing the narrow gap he'd just opened. And Heliodor was having trouble picking up at the pace they were going anyway. So it's understandable his jockey gave him a pretty easy time of things once he saw he wasn't going to get through

As I've mentioned Heliodor is built and bred for a mile. He may be okay in a strongly run six furlong race. But I think he really wants seven furlongs now. I'm still rather confident that he's Group class.

Finjaan pulled for his head against the early pace and was fortunate to have begun his run just before the sprint began, otherwise I doubt that he could have picked up so much ground. He finished strongly to win narrowly and is clearly pattern class. He looks like an out and out sprinter to me but must have a real shot of at least placing at Royal Ascot.

My gut feel is that Ouqba will turn out better than the winner as he's built for longer trips and ran around a bit yet still kept on very strongly.

MASTER SPY WANTS LONGER

MASTER SPY (34) won a rather remarkably run maiden at Southwell very easily indeed. It was remarkable because the Turftrax sectional timing shows the leaders actually ran the first six furlongs of the one mile race a fifth of a second faster than the winner of the good sprint handicap took for the full six furlongs of his race.

This being so it's hardly surprising that the classy looking DUBAI MEYDAN (17) who took the field through the two furlong pole tired badly. He'd clearly gone off way too fast. But he'd moved really well for the first six furlongs and was thought good enough to run in the Dewhurst Stakes on his previous run. He was very strongly supported here and I suspect we'll see him win when ridden with more restraint next time.

The winner Master Spy managed to sit just a few lengths off the insanely fast early pace in third and simply strolled away from his rivals over the last two furlongs, with his jockey taking several long looks back over his shoulder. If he'd been fully ridden out or if the early pace hadn't been so crazy I'm sure he'd have run a rating of around 36 or 37.

The searching gallop and testing Fibresand surface played to the strengths of Master Spy who is a rangy, scopey sort that looks built for a mile and a half. His trainer, John Gosden says he 'wants a trip'. So I doubt that we'll be seeing Master Spy run over such a short distance in future.

Master Spy was fitted with a big noseband to stop him carrying his head so high. It didn't work completely but he ran his race out well and looks rather promising. I suspect he's around Listed class and certainly capable of winning a very decent handicap over a middle distance. He doesn't look to have a dirt stride pattern or pedigree, so I'm not concerned about the switch back to turf.

ROYAL ROCK LOOKS INTERESTING FOR WOKINGHAM

You don't often see a horse win a good sprint handicap comfortably as ROYAL ROCK (36) did at Yarmouth. Normally they're something of a scramble. But Royal Rock made the task look simple as he cruised home to win narrowly while moving supremely well. It looked like he could have gone a few lengths clear if he'd been pushed out - and that would have earned him a rating of 39 or 40 from me which makes him very interesting.

Royal Rock has the build of a miler. So it's not surprising he was run over seven furlongs and a mile for his first four starts. He's won over the seven but is clearly most effective over six furlongs. In fact he would probably have been winning for the sixth time in a row here if he hadn't been suffering from a virus on his last start in 2007 and had delayed his challenge till later when losing by a nose at Newcastle.

The Wokingham often falls to a horse that has won over seven furlongs. And I have to say Royal Rock looks a seriously good candidate for the race. He's almost certainly Group class but still has an official rating that will get him into the race with a reasonable weight. He proved here that he can act on the fast ground the Wokingham is run on (something his connections were concerned about). I'd be surprised if his connections don't shoot for the race as it's such an obvious target.

CESARE STILL TOUGH TO BEAT AT ASCOT

The horse-racing expression that has gained most widespread use outside of the sport is 'horses for courses'. And no horse is a better example of it than CESARE (32) who has just won the Listed Paradise Stakes at his favourite course for the second year running.

Cesare has now won all four times he's run below Group 1 class at Ascot but lost all six times he's tackled class 2 or higher elsewhere. In the Paradise Stakes he was always cruising and won narrowly but without being asked a question. He was clearly very well suited to being ridden for a turn of foot in a slow run race as this was.

Runner-up DON'T PANIC (31) as I've noted before, is nothing like as good off a slow pace as he is when there's a strong early gallop. He pulled for his head early and was not able to match the winner's finishing kick. So he did well to get beat just a length. Off a stronger pace in the Queen Anne I suspect he'll turn this form around.

SIR GERRY A USEFUL SPRINTER WITH CUT IN THE GROUND

SIR GERRY (38) didn't seem to stay seven furlongs on his seasonal debut, which makes sense given his physique and pedigree. But he showed that he's a useful sprinter with cut in the ground when winning a Listed six furlong race rather impressively at Ascot.

Held up in last place early on, jockey Jamie Spencer deliberately sought cover for Sir Gerry. But with two furlongs to go he edged him out to see daylight and the response was almost instantaneous. Sir Gerry smoothly and quickly made up several lengths to go into a narrow lead. He hung fire there briefly and looked as though he might be in trouble for a few strides. But when Spencer started pushing him harder he got another response. Sir Gerry quickened again and scooted clear of his rivals in the last 100 yards, winning full of running.

Clearly Sir Gerry is going to be horribly hard to place because not only does he need slower ground, he'll also have to face older horses to win again in decent company - and that's a big ask for a three year old in sprints.

Having said that I should add that it takes a classy horse to make two big moves in a race. And so far Sir Gerry has won all three times he's run less than seven furlongs on ground I rate on the slow side of good. I can easily see him improving enough to beat good older horses in Group company when he gets his ground. And I'd be rather sure that he'd have no trouble cutting back to five furlongs either.

BANKABLE CAN PROBABLY RUN FASTER

BANKABLE (36) clocked a decent time to win a handicap up the straight mile at Ascot. He was cruising early on and also when he began his run but took a while to assert. However he picked up really strongly towards the end and won well. I suspect he was simply running fast enough to beat what he was up against and could have gone faster.

Bankable is a classy looking sort that has now won all three of his starts since losing on his racecourse debut. But his trainer, Luca Cumani has expressed concerns about the possibility of firm ground when he bids for the Royal Hunt Cup. That's understandable seeing he's a pretty heavy-topped sort and has scored both his wins with cut in the ground since his maiden success.

RE BAROLO USEFUL ON THE POLY

RE BAROLO (34) won a good Polytrack Conditions race at Great Leighs which developed into a sprint finish over the last three furlongs. He actually came away well at the end, looking like he'd have run a Listed class time if the early pace had been stronger.

So far Re Barolo has run six times on AW tracks over a mile or more when he's had a recent run, and he's won all six times. He's clearly suited by the slow pace and sprint finish of Polytrack races and looks tough to beat on this surface.

MAIMOONA IS PATTERN CLASS

MAIMOONA (36) fairly hacked up in a five furlong maiden on her seasonal debut in fast time at Folkestone. She was always going best and simply cruised away from her rivals in the last furlong, quickly opening up a four length break while her jockey looked over both shoulders before easing her up in the last fifty yards.

There are few reliable lines of form to assess Maimoona on, so I can see why her connections said after the race that they'd wait to see what the handicapper did before making future plans. This is one of those situations where the handicapper could play it safe and guess at a rating of around 80 or 85 for Maimoona. This would give her a serious chance of winning a decent handicap off a low weight.

In reality Maimoona is clearly at least Listed class. In fact it looked like she could have by by another couple of lengths if ridden out and that would make her Group class.

Distance wise Maimoona has already proven she gets six furlongs. However she does have a sprinter's physique, so I'm not at all sure she'd last seven at this stage.

Clearly there are good reasons to be optimistic about Maimoona's prospects. On the downside her connections say she needs cut in the ground (though I should add race times indicate it was actually precisely good here). In addition, there are very few opportunities for sprinting fillies in pattern races which don't involve running against older males.

Still, a horse this good has just got to win again soon if she gets her ground.

WATAMU STILL SMART AT AGE SEVEN

WATAMU (37) has earned pattern class speed ratings from me on many occasions and did so again when winning a long sprint finish to a good class 2 ten furlong handicap on the Poly at Lingfield.

Watamu has always had a terrific finishing kick and this is what wins races on the Poly. But he's also effective on fast ground on turf on tight courses when there are few enough runners to ensure his late run isn't obstructed. He's now won five times out of eight in fields of twelve or less on good or faster turf or Polytrack around tight courses. He's quick enough to win in Listed company and will soon need to step up to that class as his official rating will now be over 100.

DARK ISLANDER HAS A MAJOR SHOT AT BADEN-BADEN

DARK ISLANDER (34) has run a fair bit faster than he did when winning a good Conditions race over seven furlongs on Lingfield's Polytrack. But I'm sure he'd have equaled the Group class speed ratings I've given him before if the early pace wasn't so slow.

Dark Islander was held up, racing a bit wide off the moderate early pace and then produced a sustained burst from just before the entrance to the straight to mow his rivals down, clocking just 22.46 seconds for the final two furlongs according to Turftrax.

Seeing that he's a mountain of muscle and produced such a terrific burst of speed here I'd have to agree with Dark Islander's trainer and jockey that he'll be effective when cut back to six furlongs for the Group 3 Benazet Rennen at Baden-Baden on the 17th of May.

Fast ground is a must for Dark Islander. He has in fact won four of the last five times he's run on Polytrack or on turf with the word 'firm' in the going description. His sole loss came at Goodwood, where he may not have handled the undulations.

The going is normally fast for Baden-Baden's big May meeting. So Dark Islander will have no excuses on that score. He looks a very interesting proposition for that race, though I have to say I'd prefer Sonny Red if he took up his engagement.

To be honest I'm rather hoping that Dark Islander doesn't win in Germany as that would scupper his trainer's plan to run him in the Wokingham, a race that often falls to a horse that's won over seven furlongs. I'd like his chances in that race.

FIRST BUDDY CAN SCORE A HAT TRICK

FIRST BUDDY (36) clocked a fast time when making all the running at a strong pace to win a nine furlong handicap at Musselburgh. And he could have gone a bit quicker if something had been able to press him and he hadn't been eased up close home.

If he hadn't pulled hard and met a bit of traffic when going under by half a length at Doncaster First Buddy would have won all three of his flat starts this year. Clearly he has improved.

First Buddy was always moving best in this race and had all his rivals in trouble turning into the straight. They were all being ridden along while he was still cruising in front. He only had to be ridden out with hands and heels to steadily forge clear while running enthusiastically.

First Buddy is a rather narrow, nippy sort that clearly goes well around tight turns. So his entry in a better race at Chester's big meeting looks rather interesting. He will surely have a serious chance of scoring a hat trick there.

BORDERLESCOTT SHOULD RUN IN FRANCE AND IRELAND

If a sprinter ran as fast as BORDERLESCOTT (41) and DESERT LORD (39) anywhere but Britain I'd be getting excited. But they fought out the finish of a red hot Conditions sprint at Musselburgh and reside in a country that stables a ludicrously disproportionate percentage of the fastest sprinters in Europe.

Borderlescott's trainers says he's going to skip Group 1's and focus on Listed and Conditions races with his charge instead this term. If he were mine I'd be looking at French and Irish Group sprints instead. British-trained sprinters win about half the pattern sprints for older horses that they contest in France and Ireland because they hold a serious edge in ability. And In confess I've never figured out why.

If Borderlescott does stick to his trainer's plan he should still have a good campaign. After all he has now won or run second by half a length or less in seven of the eight Listed and Conditions races he's contested.

It could be that Borderlescott needs the stronger early pace of British sprints to produce his best. But he showed here that he can be effective over five furlongs where the early pace is strong wherever you race. So I'd still like to see him venture abroad and have a shot over that trip in Group company.

The dominance of British sprinters in Europe is shown by the fact that runner up Desert Lord was able to win the Prix Abbaye a couple of seasons ago. He was third in the same race last year when the ground was on the slow side for him and still has a terrific record over five furlongs on fast ground. As ever he showed blazing early speed here and set a searching pace before getting caught a furlong out.

The ground was also a bit too slow for Desert Lord here. When it rides faster I can easily see him going close in another Group 1 over five furlongs. After all he's reached the first three in all three Group 1's he's contested over that distance.

FOUNDATION ROO SHOULD EARN BLACK TYPE

FOUNDATION ROOM (34) won a decent CondItions race from the useful APRIL PRIDE (31) at Salisbury in fast time. Se was over four lengths back after a couple of furlongs and was still only in second place and running a bit green inside the final furlong. But she produced a really good spurt from there to quickly pick up April Pride and scoot clear to score comfortably.

Foundation Room is a light-framed, immature sort, but she's clearly useful and will appreciate six furlongs next time and probably seven furlongs later on.

April Pride was totally swamped for finishing speed by the winner, and I think the original plan of holding her back till longer races are available should be reinstated.

GO NANI GO LOOKS A WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES CANDIDATE

GO NANI GO (32) won really well on his racecourse debut at Musselburgh despite running a bit green. He was always close up, took the lead about a furlong out and was allowed to ease clear smoothly with little pressure once he had the race won.

The runners took a couple of furlongs to get themselves organised as is so Often the case in juvenile races. But they came home over the last three furlongs only about 0.6 of a second slower than top class older sprinters in a hot Conditions race on the same card, so I've adjusted the speed rating to reflect this.

The way Go Nani Go is built says to me that he's not going to get beyond five furlongs, rather like his dam's smart half sister Wunders Dream. For this reason I see him as a Norfolk Stakes rather than a Coventry candidate. Clearly he'd need to run a bit faster to win that. But that seems possible on faster ground (which should suit him as he has a fast ground action), especially seeing how easily he was moving in the last half furlong. Though I have to add that on looks, seeing that he's a bit immature, I've tagged him as Listed/Group 3 class which is normally not quite good enough to win at Royal Ascot - unless we're talking Windsor Castle Stakes rather than Norfolk.

DYNAMIC RHYTHM SHOULD WIN AGAIN

Some horses show remarkable improvement when they're switched to steeple chasing. DYNAMIC RHYTHM (36) is one of them. He won a novice chase at Towcester impressively in course record time on his first try over the bigger jumps.

Okay the ground was riding really fast and there have only been 57 races run over the course and distance. But it was still a very decent effort to lower the previous best time by almost five seconds.

Dynamic Rhythm was always moving much the best in a race run at a very strong pace. So strong in fact that many of his rivals had severe problems with their jumping. But not Dynamic Rhythm. Apart from one fence where he landed a bit steeply he jumped really well, if a bit low.

Entering the home straight Dynamic Rhythm was clearly going a lot better than any of his rivals and quickly came clear when shaken up. He did run around a bit in front, as he had earlier on after one of the fences. But he kept going strongly to win in fast time.

Dynamic Rhythm has a fast ground action, so I suspect he won't like soft ground. In addition the way he jumps low and fast suggests he might well not get enough height at his fences when jumping out of a softer surface.

Dynamic Rhythm clearly has plenty of pace, so I wouldn't worry about him being cut back to two miles. I suspect he won't get three though. He's a well proportioned rather classy looking sort that moves well and won this race nicely. I can see him winning a whole bunch of novice chases in the off season on fast ground. Certainly I wouldn't dream of opposing him next time.