BLACK BEAR ISLAND WILL BE VERY HARD TO BEAT AT EPSOM

I rated the win scored by BLACK BEAR ISLAND (42) in the Dante as the best performance by a three year old in a Derby Trial in fifteen years. The only time I've ever given a Derby Trial winner a rating as big was in the 1994 Dante won by Erhaab who of course went on to win the Derby.

Black Bear Island's amazing performance was no huge shock as the Dante looked to be the most strongly contested Derby Trial I can ever recall.

Normally there are just a couple of horses in a Derby Trial that look to have the potential to develop into Group 1 performers. In this year's Dante every single one of the ten runners appeared candidates for top honours.

FREEMANTLE (42) set out to make it a real test of stamina on ground that was on the slow side of good, edging towards yielding judged by race times and the divots the runners were throwing up. He kept going really strongly in the lead and made a bold move to break his rivals when Johnny Murtagh booted him a couple of lengths clear with more than a quarter of a mile to go.

The clock shows that even though Freemantle was going fast enough to clock a very good final time Murtagh still managed to save just a little bit for when he tried to break clear.

Unfortunately Freemantle's pedigree and physique suggest that ten furlongs is likely to be his limit, and the Dante is 88 yards longer than that. So inside the last furlong his stride began to shorten and his lead shrank with every stride. He ended up just getting caught and beaten a head. If the overnight rain hadn't arrived he might well have held on.

Freemantle is a typical Coolmore colt in that he's a big, mature, good-bodied, classy sort. In fact he's exceptionally well made and an outstanding physical specimen. He made very good late headway on his debut at the Curragh to come from fifteenth place around halfway to finish third. He was not given that hard a time in the closing stages but still picked up smoothly and strongly. If the race had been a mile rather than seven furlongs he would undoubtedly have won. It was a red hot maiden. Subsequent Guineas winner Sea The Stars was fourth and Black Bear Island was second. But Freemantle looked much the best horse in the race.

Next time out Freemantle had a pacemaker to ensure a strong gallop from him in another seven furlong maiden at the Curragh. He started at 11-10. But it soon became apparent he wasn't liking the desperately heavy ground. He was rolling around and simply not getting through the surface properly and got very leg weary. He still gained ground towards the finish but you could see his action had gone and he was very tired.

On his next start the going was officially heavy once more when Freemantle ran in another maiden, this time at Tipperary over seven and a half furlongs. But race times show that the surface was actually riding almost seven seconds a mile faster than it was at the Curragh. It was really more like soft going and Freemantle got through it much better, quickening clear to win by ten lengths from a runner up that's gone on to win two of his three subsequent outings.

Freemantle's dam produced her best run over ten furlongs and weakened to finish unplaced when tried over a mile and a half. Her previous foals have all produced their best form over ten furlongs or less as well, even those with stamina-laden sires. Couple this with Freemantle's racy looking physique and the pace he's shown himself capable of and the Derby distance does seem a bit of a stretch. Still, he is a proper Group 1 horse and looks sure to win at least one race at the top level this year. His obvious immediate target just has to be the Prix du Jockey Club where he'll be very hard to beat, especially if the ground is faster than it was at York, as seems likely.

It has to be said that the weather has not been kind to Freemantle so far. He clearly wants a fast surface and has been unlucky never to get it.

Before the race I had thought that Black Bear Island might well find the distance a bit on the short side. But thanks to the overnight rain and the strong pace he really started rolling halfway up the straight. He began moving up from second last spot with his jockey moving him right then left to find a run. When he found one he shook Black Bear Island up and his mount fairly barreled along as he bore down on the leaders, eating up the ground. His run proved irresistible and he powered past his stablemate on the line.

One remarkable aspect of Black Bear Island's win here was how incredibly fast he came home over the last three furlongs. I clocked him and the winners of the other races several times for this distance because at first I found it hard to believe he could have finished so quickly. But it turned out that not only did he get closer to my standard time in terms of seconds per mile than the other winners around the turn, he finished faster too. They came home 0.9 of a second faster over the last three furlongs than in the mile Listed race for older horses. And Black Bear Island gained about a second on the leaders during this space, meaning he finished the race a good deal faster than he began it.

Clearly Black Bear Island is crying out for the step up to a mile and a half. He looks very hard to beat at Epsom on this performance and deserves to be a warm favourite rather than the remarkably big 10-1 that you can get as I write this.

Previously I'd thought that Black Bear Island's stablemate Rip Van Winkle was the one to beat at Epsom. Now I've jumped ship and am supporting the Dante winner. He's guaranteed to get the distance and is a serious Group 1 horse on my ratings.

SANS FRONTIERES (41) ran a big race to finish third. He still wasn't totally organised as he staged a strong run down the outside but picked up nicely and is clearly a smart horse. I think it's a smart move skipping the Derby with him as he's so tall and gangly and clearly rather difficult to keep balanced. He'd surely have trouble negotiating the tight turns and gradients at Epsom.

In a normal year I'd say Sans Frontieres was a good thing to take his intended target, the King Edward VII Stakes, on this run. But this is a very good year for three year old middle distance colts, so I'm going to wait to see what takes him on at Royal Ascot.

It was good to see MONITOR CLOSELY (40) not putting his head to one side as he had in his two previous runs this season on much firmer ground. He clearly appreciated the overnight rain more than most and ran yet another good race. With fast ground likely to prevail during the Summer months I don't know quite what he can win in the near future. But in the Autumn when the ground gets softer I see him winning something decent. He's a classy, good looking horse.

Fifth placed KITE WOOD (40) is another horse whose record shows a preference for a softer surface. But this may simply be because he's not yet had the chance to try a really long distance. He ran a big race here over a trip that's almost certainly going to prove much too short for him. He's a deep chested, powerful sort out of dam whose produced two out and out stayers from her three other foals - and those were by speedier stallions than Galileo, the sire of Kite Wood.

Kite Wood entered the last furlong in second place but was simply swamped for speed by his rivals and ended up fifth (he would have been sixth in another stride or two).

On the tighter course and likely faster ground at Epsom I doubt that Kite Wood will improve much on this run. But he certainly looks a smart prospect for the St Leger later on and even at this early stage looks to have the potential to develop into one of the better Cup horses next year.

GLASS HARMONIUM (40) finished nicely and clearly improved for the step up in distance. He is rather a big, gross sort that's probably hard to get fit. So it's understandable that once more he was reported to be unfit when weakening into fifth in the Craven on his reappearance where he got beat over seven lengths. That wasn't a bad effort, and he improved on it significantly here.

It may very well be that Glass Harmonium is going to improve even further over longer distances. After all he comes from a mile and a half family on the dam's side and he is a tall, rangy sort that looks built for longer. Stoute certainly seems to think so as he persuaded Glass Harmonium's owner, Princess Haya, to pay 8000 pounds to supplement him into the Derby. That's now looking like a smart move, and Glass Harmonium is certainly a tempting each-way bet for the big race at the available 50-1.

NATIVE RULER (38) put up a very solid performance to finish a close up seventh. He is a very good looking horse that was noticeably taller than all his Dante rivals. He has a big, long stride too. He looked in a different class to his rivals for most of the race when winning a Pontefract maiden last time. He set a strong pace, while moving easily in that race and had all his rivals off the bit a long way out. However in the closing stages the runner up just wouldn't go away and drew well clear of the rest as he continued to worry away at Native Ruler. Native Ruler started to tire and run green but still had enough in the tank left to win by over three lengths. Here he improved and ran more like an old hand. But, as trainer Henry Cecil said after the race, he's still a big baby and needs a bit more time to produce his best, and most likely another couple of furlongs.

I'm not sure that the excuse of a dirty scope after the race was needed to explain the performance of CROWDED HOUSE (38). He didn't put up a great run to win the Racing Post Trophy on my speed ratings and I reckon he basically ran up to form. He must have appreciated the rain taking the jar out of the ground too as he's such a top heavy sort. For this reason I can't see him taking to Epsom where horses hit their front legs hard on the long downhill run to the straight. Besides I just don't think he'd be good enough there.

REDWOOD (36) was never traveling according to his jockey and ran well below the form he showed when taking the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket. The only idea I have to explain his run is that perhaps he needs to be rested between this runs since he's a relatively light-framed horse.

I suspected that NEEHAM (26) might regress if he wasn't rested following his big win in the valuable sales race at Newmarket as he's a bit light-framed too. This seemed to happen here as he ran a clunker to finish far back in last place. I'm prepared to forgive this run and will be interested in Neeham if he's given a break of at least six weeks.

SARISKA A SILLY PRICE FOR OAKS

When she won the Musidora SARISKA (36) earned a speed rating from me that's just not good enough to take an average renewal of the Oaks - even when I adjust my rating to take into account the sprint over the last three furlongs. As I see it there's no way she should be favourite for the big race on the basis of this run. It was clear from watching the race that she was much better suited to the sprint finish than any of her rivals. In addition her physique and pedigree suggest strongly that she won't get the mile and a half at Epsom.

Sariska is a very muscular, good-bodied sort that's built top produce a lot more speed than the three staying types that chased her home at York. When the race turned into a sprint over the last three furlongs it gave her a huge advantage. Even so she had to be driven out to score and got unbalanced briefly before straightening up and going clear in the last furlong.

Sariska has the build of a ten furlong horse to my eye. And it's surely significant that the 25 best performers by her sire Pivotal, as judged by Racing Post ratings, all failed to win beyond a mile and a quarter. He was Champion sprinter, so it takes one heck of a lot of stamina from the dam's side to make his progeny go longer. You could argue that's the case with Sariska, but her physique says otherwise. Besides you have to wonder how she's going to handle the gradients at Epsom if she can get unbalanced on a dead flat track like York.

STAR RUBY (33) couldn't sprint anything like as well as the winner and did well to finish second in the circumstances. She earned a bigger rating from me when winning at Sandown and looks likely to improve over a longer trip, on a stiffer track or off a stronger early pace.

Similar comments apply to third placed ENTICEMENT (29). She was floundering once they started sprinting. It's also noticeable that she's still rather leggy and immature. She should come on for the run and looks the type to do better over a longer distance, especially towards the end of the season when she's had the chance to grow a bit more.

AMAZING DEBUT BY CANFORD HILLS

CANFORD HILLS (38) put up an extraordinary performance to win on his racecourse debut at Newbury. He clocked a fast time and covered the last three furlongs 2.3 seconds quicker than decent three year old sprinters did in a Listed race over the same trip. His final time was a bit slower than the older horses, but I've no doubt he would have beaten them seeing how quickly he came home.

Canfor Hills is a muscular. very mature horse that already looks like a three year old. He was always cruising and produced an amazing burst of speed to quickly open up a seven length gap on his rivals in the final furlong to win full of running.

I've no doubt that Canford Hills is a Group 1 horse on what I saw here. He has a lot more early pace than his smart stablemate Monsieur Chevalier who I previously rated the top two year old. I just don't see him getting beat any time soon. He'll surely be winning a Group 1 over six furlongs.

AILSA CARMEL COULD BE ANBOTHER STAR FOR CHANNON

Mick Channon has an amazing knack of producing smart two year old sprinting fillies. And it looks like he may very well have another one on his hands in AILSA CARMEL (31) who ran a most promising race on her racecourse debut at Newbury.

Ailsa Carmel is a close coupled, muscular horse that's built for nothing but speed. She lost ground at the start but showed how much pace she has by quickly picking up the leaders in a race run at a searching pace throughout. She looked like she was going to come through and win the race about a furlong and a half out but her ears had been going all over the pace throughout (a sure sign of greenness) and when she was asked to go and win she drifted left and right, rolling around and just didn't pick up in the way she clearly could have if she'd been focused on running. She passed the post full of running in a close third place in a race that I rated as being run in pattern class time.

Mick Channon's horses come on tremendously for their first run. And he does incredibly well with two year old fillies. Ailsa Carmel might very well be another in a long line of top class juvenile female sprinters he'd produced over the years.

The winner KURTANELLA (34) is much more of a six to seven furlong sort. She came through nicely from the back after taking a bump after halfway and picked up the trailblazing MIJAS PLAYA (33) and Ailsa Carmel in the closing stages.

I'm not sure the five furlong of the Queen Mary will be far enough for Kurtanella to produce her best. But later over six furlongs or more she should be able to at least place in pattern company.

Mijas Playa has got loads of pace and looks a threat to win something decent over five furlongs. Certainly she'd be a slam dunk to win a maiden, but I imagine her connections primary goal right now will be to earn some black type.

GOLDEN SWORD CAN CUT IT IN GROUP 1'S

GOLDEN SWORD (39) had been done for speed in a sprint finish off a slow early pace in the Prix Noailles. So it was fitting that he set a modest pace then caught his rivals flat-footed when sprinting the final three furlongs in the Chester Vase,

Despite the fact that he won around the tight turns at Chester I rather suspect that the Irish Derby rather than Epsom is going to suit Golden Sword best. He's a big, tall, really long striding sort that might well have trouble coming down the hill around Tattenham Corner.

That said, this was a very solid effort by Golden Sword that puts him within a length per mile of the best three year olds beyond sprint trips this season. The trouble is there are around eight or ten other colts as fast on my ratings in what is clearly an exceptional crop.

If he doesn't crack it in the Irish Derby then Golden Sword's best prospect of Group 1 success may well lie in the St Leger. He's so strong he'll surely get the distance.

The second and third MATEROFTHEHORSE (38) and DEBUSSY (37) were clearly asked to come from too far back. Debussy cut a seven length deficit two furlongs out down to three and a half length gap at the line while Masterofthehorse came from even further back to lose by just two lengths. The pair made an impressive move in tandem down the outside up the straight. But, thanks to the slow pace the winner had been allowed to set, they'd have had to come home faster than the winner of the six furlong handicap to catch him.

Masterofthehorse has stacks of relatives on both sides of his pedigree that preferred cut in the ground and I thought he might be inclined that way himself till his run here. He'd been hopelessly outpaced in the closing stages of the Racing Post Trophy on good ground. But he picked up nicely here on an even faster surface thanks to the half mile jump up in trip. My thinking is that he's basically on a par with the winner.

Debussy is a racier, better balanced horse than the first two and looks the best Epsom prospect for this reason. I still see him as a good bet to place in the big race.

I liked the way SAPTAPADI (35) picked up from miles behind despite meeting traffic problems. The Group 1 horses will have worked their way out of lesser Group races like this now that the Derby Trials are over, so he should have a much better shot of taking one.

HARBINGER DESERVES A SHOT AT THE DERBY

I can't remember a year when there were so many high class middle-distance three year old colts this early in the season. Derby prospects seem to be crawling out of the woodwork everywhere in Britain, France and Ireland. There are at least twice as many as normal. So my prediction is we're going to see a vintage race at Epsom and that three year olds are going to take the vast majority of the big middle distance Group 1's when they face older runners.

HARBINGER (39) is one of the latest Derby candidates to emerge. And he burst onto the scene in a maiden at Chester's May meeting. In a race run at a decent clip for a maiden event he picked up tremendously well in the closing stages, coming home 2.7 seconds faster than the winner of the Cheshire Oaks did over the last three furlongs. When I adjust my speed rating to take account of this it indicate a huge performance.

Harbinger is a big, strong colt who shows a bit of knee action. Normally this suggests a preference for slower ground and is often a trait of a one-paced horse. But Harbinger handled the fast surface fine here and showed plenty of pace as he powered away from his rivals to win full of running.

I can see how you could argue that Harbinger's pedigree says the extended ten furlongs of the Chester race should be his maximum. But when you look at his physique all stamina doubts vanish. He's built like a national hunt store horse and should have no trouble staying twelve furlongs.

On what I saw here Harbinger deserves to be odds on for the Cocked Hat Stakes (formerly the Predominate) next week and thoroughly deserves a shot at the Derby.

Runner up CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (37) sprinted away from the rest when he was set down to chase the winner up the homestraight but was simply outrun by what may very well be a Group 1 performer. Changingoftheguard himself is clearly pattern class and will surely do better when stepped up to a mile and a half. He never looked comfortable going the strong pace here over ten furlongs here and finished really strongly.

PERFECT TRUTH STAYS REALLY WELL

It's not that hard to break a course record over a distance that's only run once a year. Nonetheless the performance of PERFECT TRUTH (37) in winning the Cheshire Oaks is worth discussing. She clocked a time that puts her at least in the ballpark for an Oaks candidate.

Perfect Truth's jockey, Johnny Murtagh, made a shrewd move by setting a searching pace on his mount. It was shrewd because Perfect Truth is a rather, tall, deep chested, long striding, somewhat narrow sort that is built for longer distances. Indeed I reckon she'd have no problem going the St Leger trip.

The gallop that Perfect Truth went had all her rivals under pressure soon after halfway. By the time they approached the home straight she had established a five length lead and looked uncatchable. But then she began to tire and it became a matter of whether the winning post would come soon enough. It did and she prevailed by a rapidly diminishing short head.

Perfect Truth had run rather green on her first two starts this term but raced like an old hand this time. My feeling is that she's more a filly for the Prix de Pomone over 13.5f and the Park Hill Stakes over 14.5f rather than the Oaks over a mile and a half. But she's clearly improving and success for her at Epsom is not inconceivable. It's worth noting that her trainer, Aidan O'Brien, has now had three runners in the Cheshire Oaks. And if All My Loving hadn't bumped into the subsequent Oaks winner Light Shift all three would have won.

Runner up PHILIPPINA (37) is much more of a 10-12 furlong sort than the winner. She produced a strong run up the straight as the winner tired and very nearly got up. It's tough to say how good such a lightly raced horse is. But she doesn't really have the physique of a Group 1 horse so I'm inclined to think she won't quite be good enough at Epsom.

The other horse I'd take out of the race is fourth place HIDDEN BRIEF (34). She's a good-bodied, muscular, rather classy looking sort, undoubtedly the best looker in the race. She paid the price for chasing the scorching pace set by the winner and didn't quite get home.

I don't now know for sure whether Hidden Brief actually stays beyond ten furlongs. There are some doubts from her pedigree. Her physique only adds to them. She's rather too pacey looking to be sure of getting a mile and a half to my eye. And the way she tired late here does tend to endorse the idea that she needs to cut back to ten furlongs. However this was a freakishly fast run race so I'm not going to draw any hard and fast conclusions just yet. Hidden Brief has now run two very promising races in a row, in both of which she had an excuse. She might well be good enough to take the Ribblesdale.

UNNEFER NOT FAR OFF GROUP 1 CLASS OVER 10F

It looks like UNNEFER (40) had some sort of physical problem when losing at Royal Ascot last year, seeing that he hung and was then laid off for two months. He would have won the other five times he's run ten furlongs if two very close finishes had gone his way.

Last week Unnefer showed just how good he is over a mile and a quarter when smoothly moving clear to win a hot Listed race from HALICARNASSUS (39) who can beat just about anything in a really small field.

On this run Unnefer can win a Group 2 and is worth trying in Group 1 company.

FATHER TIME THE BEST HORSE IN LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL

The early pace was so slow in the Lingfield Derby Trial that even the sectional timing formula I use is not enough to bump the rating up to what it should have been for the class. In a race run this way a horse that sets the pace as AGE OF AQUARIUS (33) did has a huge advantage at Lingfield. The homestraight at Lingfield is downhill, so the horses can easily clock 11 seconds a furlong even at the end of a middle distance race. This makes a front runner that's been allowed to go slow near impossible to catch.

In the circumstances FATHER TIME (33) was set a near impossible task in being asked to come from stone last to catch the Coolmore winner. The fact that he failed by only half a length speaks volumes for his talent.

The way that Father Time won his first start impressed me greatly. Running over a mile at Great Leighs in a hot maiden he had trouble going the early pace but started to pick up nicely as his stamina kicked in from halfway. He moved up steadily on the rail approaching the home turn, quickened rather impressively to take the lead and was eased up almost as soon as he'd hit the front by his jockey.

Father Time is a close-coupled, mature, well balanced, really classy looking sort with a good action that's clearly built for middle distances. His physique makes him very manouverable and able to produce a smart turn of foot. He won his debut race in the style of a serious Group horse, beating useful rivals easing up over a distance clearly too short for him. He never looked comfortable with the pace at any stage but managed to win anyway through sheer class, clocking a borderline Listed class time in the process.

On his next start Father Time contested the same hot Conditions race at Newbury that Cecil had used for Oath's seasonal debut before winning the Derby. Like Oath, Father Time lost at Newbury. But once more he impressed me tremendously.

The Newbury race was run at a crawl in the early stages and developed into a flat out sprint over the last quarter mile. Father Time was always going well and was improving when forced to change path and lose momentum when the runner up Four Winds (as very big horse) hung across him. He started to pick up again after being switched only for Four Winds to shift direction and cut across him again, causing Father Time to change paths and lose momentum for a second time.

Well inside the final furlong Father Time finally had a clear shot at running down the first two and closed the gap smoothly and strongly. He was moving really well at the finish and I'm convinced he would have won but for the attentions of Four Winds.

It takes a very smart horse to pick up ground three times during a sprint finish after getting hampered twice. My feeling from watching that run is that Father Time may very well be a Group 1 horse. I got the same feeling from watching him at Lingfield.

Runner up MONTAFF (33) actually managed to head Age Of Aquarius briefly. But, as was the case with Staying On earlier in the week at Chester, the winner had been allowed to go so slow he had the energy to stage a rally and get back up again.

Montaff has a fast ground action and is built to produce a serious turn of foot. He can hardly have been seen at this best in his two starts to date as they were on soft and heavy ground.

First time out at Sandown, off an absolute crawl of an early gallop, Montaff produced an impressive burst to go into the lead before the furlong pole but never looked able to stretch out like he should have due to the soft surface and just got caught.

It was a similar story off another very slow pace next time at Newcastle, except this time Montaff won. He looked like powering away and did win comfortably but again he looked to be kind of stuck in the mud.

On the faster surface at Lingfield Montaff showed that he's a Group horse. How good he is I just can't say at this stage. But he should be able to win something decent before the season is out.

JULY JASMINE GETS INTERESTING FOR OAKS

Last year Look Here ran second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial before winning the Oaks itself at Epsom. This year, if there was an Oaks winner in the Lingfield Oaks Trial I strongly suspect it was the runner up JULY JASMINE (29).

As was the case in the Derby Trial, the early pace was so slow that I can't give the race a decent speed rating even when I take sectional times into account. The winner MIDDAY (33) enjoyed a huge advantage by stealing first run on her rivals and beginning the sprint for home three furlongs out.

Certainly Midday had the ability to win the Lingfield race after her good second to the smart colt Debussy at Epsom. And she is a nice looking filly that might just be good enough to win at Epsom. But the performance of July Jasmine was most impressive. She only had two horses behind her when the sprint began and was still only sixth with little more than a furlong left. Then she powered home from there to take second place, crossing the line full of running. In a truly run race I think she may very well have won nicely.

July Jasmine was much the best looking horse in this race. She's a mature, good-bodied, muscular, quite deep chested, well proportioned, classy looking sort that looks built to be most effective over a mile and a half. She looks more like a colt than a filly she's so big and strong.

On her sole previous start, July Jasmine produced a classy looking surge from a quarter of a mile out to pick up the useful Mezenah in a sprint finish at Leicester. I was impressed with her performance there. She was moving so powerfully she was simply never going to be denied once she started her run and just kept finishing strongly for a good deal longer than you normally see with a juvenile debutante.

SOHRAAB IS GROUP CLASS OVER FIVE FURLONGS

I try to avoid giving write ups to fast British sprinters as there are just so many of them. However I must make mention of Sohraab who clocked a proper Group class time when winning a good five furlong handicap at Chester.

Sohraab seems best on relatively flat courses over five furlongs. If three very close finishes had gone his way he would now have won eight times out of eight over the minimum trip on such courses.

RIP VAN WINKLE BY FAR THE BEST COOLMORE PROSPECT FOR DERBY

Between 1992 and 1995 there were 53 runners in the Derby at Epsom which prepped for the big race over a mile or less. They all lost. But in recent years there's been a near fourfold increase in the number of UK races which feature a slow early gallop judged by form book comments. And this has swung things back in favour of Derby runners with more pace.

Two of the last three Derby winners ran in the Guineas, and there must be a real chance that the Blue Riband winner contested the big Newmarket race this year as well.

Indeed, the Guineas winner SEA THE STARS (40) is now favourite for the Derby.

Sea The Stars is a well proportioned, useful looking sort that does look built for middle distances. This is not surprising. His dam was the Arc winner Urban Sea. She has produced seven other foals from a variety of sires and they all proved Group class over middle distances, the best three being Group 1 performers over a mile and a half.

However I have a big problem with Sea The Stars over a mile and a half. The more I look at his physique the more he looks like a horse that won't get an inch beyond a mile and a quarter to me.

Sea The Star's physique isn't the only thing that suggests stamina doubts. The biggest worry for me is that he was just so darned comfortable going the scorching early pace in the Guineas. There were stacks of sprinters lined up and they were going hell for leather early on. But Sea The Stars was going really smoothly, more comfortably than any other horse in fact, as he raced in a close fourth for the first couple of furlongs. Indeed, if his jockey had asked him to I'm certain he could have taken the lead.

For me a horse with such obvious speed is a dodgy proposition to get a mile and a half.

In this regard it's worth bearing in mind that since the brilliant Nijinsky pulled off the Triple Crown back in 1970 fifteen 2000 Guineas winners have tried to win the Derby. Only one of the fifteen succeeded.

Some comments by John Oxx, the trainer of Sea The Stars, suggest strongly that he shares my doubts. He told reporters "Everyone keeps saying he's a Derby horse, thinking he's a half-brother to Galileo, but he is by Cape Cross and shows a lot of speed ... I don't know if he'll stay."

Finally my speed ratings indicate Sea The Stars was simply an average 2000 Guineas winner. And the stats suggest it takes a really brilliant Guineas winner to win the Derby. So let's have no more of this talk about Sea The Stars winning the Derby. Yes, I could be wrong. But anyone who takes as little as 5-2 about a feat that's been achieved only one time out of fifteen deserves to lose their money.

Runner up DELEGATOR (40) is obviously no Derby horse. He's a miler pure and simple unless I'm much mistaken. He produced his trademark burst of speed to take the lead but yet again drifted across the track in the closing stages, putting his head briefly to the left at one point. The only time he hasn't done this in five lifetime starts was in the one race where he had some cut in the ground on his racecourse debut. It's therefore hard to escape the conclusion that he shifts because he's uncomfortable racing on fast ground. This kind of problem tends to speak to some underlying cause, so I'll be inclined to oppose Delegator any time he tackles a firm surface in future. If he were mine I'd lay him off till the Autumn when the ground is usually softer.

Third placed GAN AMHRAS (38) is obviously a decent Derby prospect as he's built and bred to get the distance. He was hustled to keep up right from the start and kept on well to take third.

The concern with Gan Amhras in regards to the Derby is the way he got unbalanced in the dip and drifted right. It's usually a good rule of thumb that a horse which has trouble handling the dip at Newmarket is going to have a whole lot more trouble handling the steep downhill descent around Tattenham Corner and the counter camber up the straight at Epsom. This being so, my feeling is that the long striding Gan Amhras will be a better prospect for the Irish Derby at the Curragh where the course will suit him better. But I have to add that he's yet to convince me he's really a Group 1 horse.

The way that fourth placed RIP VAN WINKLE (37) picked up ground so quickly on Gan Amhras in the closing stages, despite being carried right by his rival and losing momentum as a result, tells me that he's an intrinsically better horse. My speed ratings say the same thing. I rated him the best two year old of 2008.

When I think in terms of the Derby I love the way Rip Van Winkle ran here. He was dropped in behind and allowed to lob along for most of the race. When he got rolling the tried for two gaps which both closed on him. He was then taken right across the track to get a clear run only to be carried out of his ground by Gan Amhras when first starting to stride out with purpose. It was far too late when he finally got going properly. But it's very interesting to note that though he was nearly three lengths down crossing the line he was in front just eight strides after it.

I know that Johnny Murtagh has expressed some doubts about Rip Van Winkle staying the Derby distance. But mark my words, this is the horse he will be riding at Epsom. As I see it the way that Rip Van Winkle ran here and in the Dewhurst is exactly how you'd expect a mile and a half horse to run at such short distances. He lacked the push-button acceleration to get himself out of traffic problems in both races but stayed on really strongly each time. I think Ladbrokes and Corals are crazy to offer as big as 10-1 about him winning at Epsom. I've watched all the Derby Trials in Britain, Ireland and France closely and I'm totally convinced Rip Van Winkle is by far the best prospect Coolmore have for the Derby from what looks like an outstanding group of middle distance Classic colts Aidan O'Brien has in his yard.

MASTERCRAFTSMAN (36) ran a good race to finish fifth. He had problems laying up with the pace in several of his two year old starts. And once more a lack of pace got him into trouble here. It was obvious that a gap was closing on him from before the two furlong pole. But despite his jockey's urgings he just couldn't pick up well enough to take it. The gap closed and he had to be taken up slightly. When he got clear again he strode out well and kept on strongly all the way to the line.

Mastercraftsman is a tall, rangy, long striding sort that looks built to be a ten furlong specialist. Unfortunately he clearly lacks the acceleration needed for French racing. So the Prix du Jockey Club does not look a great option. His big target just has to be the Eclipse where the steep uphill finish will suit him admirably. Though if it came up soft for the Irish Guineas he'd be rather interesting there too.

The big question with sixth placed EVASIVE (36) before the race was whether he would stay the mile. He'd tired dramatically in the last half furlong of the Horris Hill Stakes last season and confirmed here that he's a seven furlong horse by tiring again in the final furlong after trying to break clear just after halfway.

Evasive is a muscular, really classy and well proportioned sort with a daisy cutting stride that's designed for fast ground. He's so good looking and moves so well in his races I strongly suspect he's a Group 1 horse.

It's probably worth taking a shot at the French Guineas with Evasive as that race is quite often slow run and can go to a seven furlong horse. But his best prospects of Group 1 success surely lie in the six and a half furlong Prix Maurice de Gheest and the seven furlong Prix de la Foret. If he goes for the Jersey Stakes he'd surely be very hard to beat too.

PURE POETRY (34) ran a good race to finish seventh. He was dropped in behind at the start, got outpaced when the race began in earnest but picked up smoothly through the final quarter mile to pass five horses.

Pure Poetry is a muscular, well proportioned, useful looking sort that looks built for middle distances and certainly ran like a ten furlong plus horse here. This is not surprising. His three parts brother won over ten furlongs on heavy ground at Newcastle and also over hurdles.

Pure Poetry came from well off the pace to get up and win a Listed race over a mile around Kempton's Polytrack. But he looked like he was needing longer in a more slowly run Craven Stakes last time out.

After lobbing along as he disputed the lead early, Pure Poetry lost ground when the pace picked up at halfway. He closed up again before the furlong pole but then got totally swamped for speed by the first and second who were simply running away from him in the last hundred yards, despite the fact the Pure Poetry was by no means tired.

I have my eye on Pure Poetry as a likely prospect the Hampton Court Stakes over ten furlongs at Royal Ascot. But I'll be happy to bet him in any race where the steps up to a longer trip below Group 1 class next time out.

MONITOR CLOSELY (33) finished even more strongly from further back than Pure Poetry, gaining two lengths on the Richard Hannon runner in the last furlong and a half. As he did so this big, heavy-topped horse once more put his head to one side and looked rather uncomfortable on the fast surface. He ran third to the smart Kite Wood on soft ground and scored his sole win to date on yielding. So the available evidence does seem to point rather strongly towards a need for softer ground. Then again he ran a big race over ten furlongs on fast ground last time, so maybe all he needs is to go back up to the kind of distances he's clearly built for.

The two useful sprinters FINJAAN (31) and OUQBA (29) showed good early speed before tiring. Ouqba is such a lithe, close-coupled, muscular, pacey sort that I feel he's going to do slightly the better of the pair. He managed to win the Free Handicap over seven furlongs. But that was simply because they went a slow early pace. I rather suspect that Ouqba may turn out to be best over five furlongs whereas Finjaan looks more a six furlong sort to me physically.

ASHRAM (22) just couldn't go the pace and wasn't pushed hard in the last furlong or so when it became evident he wasn't going to get there. He's a tall, rangy sort that's still a little uncoordinated. I know his pedigree says a mile or less is the right trip. But his physique and the way he ran here tells me he needs to go up to ten furlongs. That's the trip he's built for. He showed serious promise last year. So I'll be taking a long hard look at him if he tackles the Dante next time. New acquisitions often move up dramatically on their second start for Godolphin, and this horse is just the type to do that.

CITYSCAPE (17) was under pressure but on target to finish within eight or lengths when he slipped in the dip. His back legs very nearly went out from under him. His jockey sensibly allowed him to come home in his own time after this unnerving experience.

Cityscape was able to keep tabs on the leaders till halfway but got outpaced when the race began in earnest. He is a great big, long striding sort that couldn't quite contain the winner's late surge in the Royal Lodge. The mile looked on the short side for him there and I had him tagged as a middle distance horse after the run. His performance in the Greenham Stakes first time out this season seemed to confirm this.

In a race where the pace was relatively slow to halfway, Cityscape got caught flat footed according to his trainer when it picked up (that's certainly the way it looked to me too). But, probably due to the soft ground, he was able to eventually pick up under pressure to be closing the winner down in the final furlong and go under by a length.

I can see how you could argue that on pedigree, despite his looks, Cityscape is a miler. After all his sire was Selkirk who became Champion miler despite being a huge, tall, scopey sort, his dam Tantina never won beyond seven furlongs and her sole foal to race before Cityscape was a miler. However Selkirk did run third in the Lingfield Derby Trial and got beat just a length in the Predominate Stakes over ten furlongs. In addition Tantina's two winning siblings were both middle distance horses and it's perfectly possible she would have stayed further if her career hadn't been cut short by injury.

Having seen him run here I'm now more sure than ever that Cityscape needs to go up to ten furlongs plus. I'd like to see him take up his entry in the Dante as the dead flat track it's run on is probably what he needs. After what happened to him in the dip at Newmarket I'm going to be wary of betting him on any track that's at all undulating.

GHANAATI IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

Most of us were expecting to see a truly exceptional filly win the 1000 Guineas. We did, but it wasn't the one we were expecting. All the pre-race talk was about Rainbow View. But it was GHANAATI (40) who took the race, and rather impressively.

Ghanaati was never more than three quarters of a length off the lead and was always moving smoothly with her flowing, daisy-cutting stride. She produced a spurt to kick clear a furlong and a half out and that was basically that. She did briefly look as though she was going to run green but didn't do so. She just kept moving strong all the way to the line.

Ghanaati actually broke the course record for the mile at Newmarket. And while there was a tailwind you should bear in mind that there often is at Newmarket. They've been racing there for hundreds of years and this was the fastest mile ever run at the track. It's quite some achievement, tailwind or not. It earns her a speed rating from me that's just as big as the one I gave the 2000 Guineas winner. Seeing that fillies on average run three fifths of a second per mile slower than colts, it marks her out as a very good 1000 Guineas winner indeed.

Previously Ghanaati had been most impressive when hosing up in a Polytrack maiden over seven furlongs at Kempton. She produced a terrific burst of speed over the final 300 yards to open up a six length gap and win easily. The sectional timing formula I've devised indicates that she put up a Listed class performance that day. And it looked very likely that she could run faster seeing how easily she won.

Ghanaati is built and bred for ten furlongs but is clearly very effective over a mile. Having the two distances to run over opens up a lot of possibilities for her.

Seeing that she's Breeders' Cup nominated, the obvious long term target for Ghanaati just has to be the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic. The nine furlongs of that race should be ideal for her.

It was good to see CUIS GHAIRE (39) run right back to her best in second place. But I should note that Jim Bolger's filly did race rather rankly and never looked properly balanced. Like a lot of horses coming into a race off a lengthy break she was just a bit too keen for her own good. It was only her stamina that kept her in the race all the way.

I can readily see Cuis Ghaire staying ten furlongs. And despite that one bad run on heavy ground I rather suspect she'd actually prefer a bit of cut in the ground. As I see it she finished distressed when she ran that one bad race on heavy ground because she'd too many recent runs in big races not because she didn't like the going. She doesn't have a fast ground action and her pedigree suggests she should actually like soft ground. Her sire, Galileo, has produced plenty of smart winners on soft and heavy going. Her dam was unraced and has only had a once raced offspring before Cuis Ghaire. But five of her six siblings won on soft or heavy ground. The one that didn't was very lightly raced and ran close up in a hot maiden on soft ground first time out.

SUPER SLEUTH (37) was stone last with three furlongs to go but produced a steady, strong run from there to gain ground all the way to the line. She'll need to run faster to have a real shot in the Prix de Diane. But that's perfectly possible because she's built for the ten furlongs of that race and certainly has a real shot of taking an Oaks Trial.

HEART SHAPED (37) has always looked like a middle distance filly to me and used her remarkably long stride to pick up ground nicely from after halfway. She put her head to the right for quite a while and ran in a disorganised manner. I think this was probably because she'd been flat to the boards for so long. Over a longer trip that wouldn't happen.

I can see what trainer John Gosden when he says that RAINBOW VIEW (37) showed her dislike of the fast ground by raising her legs higher and higher off the ground during the race. But I think the real cause of her loss was the distance being too short. She picked up really well but far too late in the closing stages, looking like she now needs at least ten furlongs, preferably twelve.

In addition I've said in the past that I felt Rainbow View was likely to be best around a turn. So it does seem a smart plan to go for the Oaks with her.

Up till now everyone was talking about the possibility of owner George Strawbridge winning the French Guineas with Fantasia and the English Guineas with Rainbow View. On reflection his best prospects of a Classic double with this pair probably lay in the French and English Oaks all along.

BRONZE CANNON IS A GROUP 1 HORSE

The general view seems to be that the Jockey Club Stakes won by BRONZE CANNON (41) was a farce as it cut up to just three runners and the early pace was slow. Sectional times tell another story entirely. These show that Bronze Cannon came home a full second faster than the 2000 Guineas winner over the last three furlongs. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it indicates a Group 1 performance by the winner.

I've been banging on about how Bronze Cannon looked unsuited to AW tracks he's been racing on recently and would improve when switched back to turf. He certainly did that here. But the way he ran suggests that I was wrong about it being a change of surface that he needed. It would appear he simply needs a longer homestraight to unwind his run.

Bronze Cannon kicked for home first here and led a long way out. But it was only in the final furlong that he really started moving. He picked up amazingly well at that point and fairly sprinted away from last year's Derby third and Irish Derby runner up CASUAL CONQUEST (39).

Seeing how long it took for Bronze Cannon to kick into overdrive prompted me to go back and look at his AW form. I found that he'd won both times he'd run beyond a mile around the outer course at Kempton where the homestraight is three furlongs long but failed to get going in time the three times he'd faced shorter homestraights. It's been the same story on turf courses. He lost at Ascot where the homestraight is two and a half furlongs but has won all three times he's run on a fast surface on tracks with longer homestraights. In other words he's had a long homestraight and a fast surface five times beyond a sprint trip and he's won all five times.

I'm fervently hoping that Bronze Cannon's connections skip the Hardwicke Stakes because the homestraight at Ascot is probably too short for him. If he were mine I'd be running him in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly on the last day of May (entries for which don't close till the thirteenth of this month). That race features a three furlong homestraight and the track rises 33 feet in the last half mile which would make Bronze Cannon's strong finish even more effective.

Longer term the obvious targets for Bronze Cannon are the Eclipse, the Juddmonte International and the Champion Stakes - the only three middle distance Group 1's in Europe that feature long homestraights. I'd give him a real shot in any of those races on fast ground, especially the Champion Stakes as it tends to be the weakest of the three. And I wouldn't be concerned about him cutting back to ten furlongs either seeing the finishing speed he showed off a slow early pace here.

Bronze Cannon was running about as fast as a horse can go in the last furlong. So it's no big surprise that Casual Conquest couldn't go with him. He is a bigger, taller, longer striding horse than the winner who looked to be taking two strides to his one in the closing stages. Basically he's more of a proper twelve furlong type and this race rode like a ten furlong contest.

This was a perfectly respectable run off a long break by Casual Conquest who looks to have filled out and grown a fair bit since last year.

Casual Conquest doesn't really show much knee action. He is now a pretty heavy topped horse with a big stride that hits the ground quite hard. So it could be he'll do better on a softer surface as some are suggesting. But I don't really think that's right. I'm far from disappointed with this run. Any horse as big and scopey as he is would have got beat by a rival as nippy and with such smart acceleration as Bronze Cannon in the circumstances.

As I see it, Casual Conquest is going to be a big player in this year's top twelve furlong races. He probably lacks the pace for ten furlong events now.

AMOUR PROPRE A SERIOUS CANDIDATE FOR CHAMPION SPRINTER

If anyone ever wants to do a study on nurture versus nature I'd advise them to take a look at the records of Mark Johnston and Henry Candy. Johnston seems able to make a horse go long distances however speedily its bred whereas Candy has an incredible knack of turning horses with horribly nondescript pedigrees into brilliant sprinters.

Candy looks to have outdone himself with AMOUR PROPRE (42) who clocked a real Group 1 time when winning the Palace House Stakes at the Guineas meeting. He sustained a fast pace all the way to the line to win easing up.

Amour Propre lost on his racecourse debut last year. But that race was run on soft ground, and looking at has machine-like, daisy-cutting stride, it's obvious he needs a fast surface. He's now won all four of his starts since that single loss and looks a serious candidate for champion sprint honours.

It is perhaps unfortunate that Candy has unearthed such a sprint star in a year when the remarkable Hungarian sprinter Overdose is set to run in pretty much all the big sprints. The so-called 'Budapest Bullet' has now won all twelve of his starts and looks freakishly fast. Candy himself commented on the fact that his new star might well be up against it when he takes on Overdose at Haydock next time out. The race should be worth going a long way to see because on my ratings Amour Propre is a real threat to Overdose.

YOUR OLD PAL LOOKS PROMISING

YOUR OLD PAL (37) only merits a Listed class rating from me when I take account of the sprint finish to the Newmarket Stakes. But it looks rather likely that he can run faster. He drifted right across the track in the closing stages and was still traveling strongly at the finish though winning narrowly. If he'd kept straight my feeling is he's have won by a couple of lengths, and that would take him into Group race territory.