LADIES ARE FOREVER IS TOP CLASS

LADIES ARE FOREVER (38) clocked a time three hundredths of a secon quicker than the winner of the Bryan Yeardley Trophy when winning on her debut at Beverley. That alone suggests she's a smart juvenile. But the time she clocked over the final three furlongs indicates her performance was even better than it looked.

Ladies Are Forever came home an amazing 2.1 seconds faster over the last three furlongs than the winner of the big 2YO race on the same card. Her rivals simply didn't run fast enough to get her to break sweat in the early stages. She had so much energy left she was able to fairly fly through the closing stages.

This is a good looking, mature, classy filly that's clearly built and bred to go longer distances. My feeling at this stage is that she probably won't get a mile. But she'll certainly stay six furlongs, and quite possibly seven. Her owner's phone must be rining off the hook with offers from the top stables.

I'd take a lot of persuading to bet anything other than Ladies Are Forever in the Lowther Stakes which is her first big target in August. She is an exceptionally fast two year old filly that could well go through this season unbeaten.

GLASS HARMONIUM NEEDS A MILE AND A HALF

The Brigadier Gerard Stakes once more cemented it's reputation for being Britain's hottest Group 3 race when another vintage renewal saw STOTSFOLD (41) get up to win by a neck.

Stotsfold is clearly just as good as ever. He must have a real shot of fially winning at the top level in his big target, the Arlington Million in August. He ran third in that race last year and once more showed at Sandown that he can produce very smart form on the fast ground and off the modest early pace that is the norm in US turf racing.

It never ceases to amaze me how top class horses can recover from a relatively slow early gallop to clock a fast final time. They did so in this race by running as fast for the last seven furlongs as they did in a very good mile handicap later on the card and coming home a full second quicker over the final three furlongs.

It was good to see runner up TAZEEZ (41) finally show his best form away from his local tracks. He's still yet to win in ten tries outside of Newmarket and Yarmouth (where he's won four from five). But this run was his best yet and puts him in the ballpark of what's needed for his next race the Prince Of Wales. He's a really good looking horse and may well be good enough to take a Group 1 this season.

Third placed GLASS HARMONIUM (39) was not best suited by the near sprint finish. He's always looked more of a mile and a half horse and confirmed that here. He stayed on really well to close in on the first two through the last furlong after having to be switched for a run. At a mile and a half he should be competitive in Group 1 races.

FLORA TREVELYAN CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

FLORA TREVELYAN (37) looked to have a little in hand when taking a good handicap over a mile at Sandown yet still clocked a Listed class time. AShe's won both times she's run at the Esher course and it's clear the track's steep uphill finish brings out the best in her. It could well be she needs ten furlongs to produce her best elsewhere. I'd expect her to be winning a Listed race sometime soon.

REWILDING NOW ONE OF TOP DERBY CONTENDERS

REWILDING (40) earned a good write up from me when finishing second in the Prix Noailles. In that race the eventual winner had a five length break on him when the sprint finish started which he cut to a length and a half at the line.

This time around the early pace was again not that great. But the sprint finish was nothing like as extreme which meant Rewilding was able to gain ground more easily. In fact it was impressive how rapidly Rewilding went clear when merely shaken up before the furlong pole. Jockey Frankie Dettori was able to ease him up 25 yards out.

There's little question this was a Group 1 performance for a three year old in the first half of the season. And there's no doubt Rewilding will stay the extra furlong in the Derby. He must have a real shot at Epsom.

I confess that I've been expecting some totally dominant horse to emerge from one of the Derby Trials that's clearly the best of its generation. But this only happens around one year in four or five. We've been spoiled by three smart Derby winners in a row. The truth is many Derby winners these days just aren't that good. Seven of the last fourteen never won another race after scoring at Epsom.

I can think of at least two recent Derby winners, namely High-Rise and Sir Percy, that I'd be rather confident Rewilding would beat. He looks sure to reach the first four in the big race and might just be good enough to win.

One concern for ante-post backers is that the connections of one or more French horses might be encouraged by the obvious dominance of the French three year olds to sidestep their own Prix du Jockey Club and shoot for the Derby instead. That's already happened with Rewilding and there's a good chance at least one other French horse may go for the race in Simon De Montfort. This being so I'm now inclined to wait for the supplementary entry stage before coming to any firm conclusions about this year's Derby.

Runner up PRIZEFIGHTING (37) is not in the Derby. He is in the Prix du Jockey Club but that's going to be a very hot race this year so I'd be surprised if he was shipped over for it. Nonetheless I can easily see him taking a big prize this Summer if he gets the fast ground he seems to need.

Prizefighting picked up well in the closing stages to quickly pull clear of the rest along with third placed Very Good Day.

This is not the first time Prizefighting has looked a smart horse.

On his debut on Kempton's Polytrack Prizefighting got himself boxed in and had to be switched violently two furlongs out to find a run. With a furlong to go he was seven lengths back and victory looked totally impossible because the two leaders were still going strongly and did so all the way to the line. But Prizefighting produced an astonishing burst of speed to cut them down and win by more than a length.

Prizefighting has a smooth daisy cutting action that's designed for fast ground. So he looked likely to have problems on the heavy ground for the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud next time. Horses with a daisy cutting action virtually always need a fast surface - especially when they have a serious turn of foot as Prizefighting clearly does.

Nonetheless Prizefighting moved well in the Criterium International, tracking the leader most of the way. Then, entering the straight his jockey made a huge error in keeping him out further on the course than any other runner. Saint-Cloud is like Kempton in that the going rides much faster near the stands rail when the ground is heavy.

For a long way it looked like Prizefighting was going to hold on to second even though you could see his stride had gone to pieces on the ground. But eventually it became too much for him and he fell back.

Prizefighting looks an out and out middle distance horse physically, so the step up to nine furlongs for the Feilden Stakes on his seasonal debut looked a good move. But he ran an absolutely dreadful race there, fading badly in the last quarter mile to get beat over fifteen lengths.

Once more Prizefighting's stride went to pieces in the closing stages of that race. He looked uncoordinated as he dropped back through the field.

It now seems clear that Prizefighting needs a genuinely fast surface rather than the slightly slow ground he was running on in the Feilden Stakes. He is a somewhat narrow sort, weak and leggy and just doesn't appear to have the strength to get through even slightly slow ground.

The ground for the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood had been watered quite generously. I suspect Prizefighting will improve on this effort when he gets the chance to race on a really fast surface. One place that's more likely than not to prevail is Royal Ascot, so I'll be hoping to see his name in the list of entrants for the Hampton Court Stakes.

I was impressed with how VERY GOOD DAY (37) picked up in the closing stages, coming from last of the nine runners to take third despite racing green. I had been concerned that the eleven furlongs might prove too short for him and that he could even end up wanting two miles, but he showed enough acceleration here to suggest he's no one-paced stayer.

Very Good Day is a really good looking, good-bodied, classy, mature, tall, mile and a half plus sort. He picked up well in the closing stages to be second to Waseet in a mile maiden at two, clearly wanting to go longer.

My concern about him wanting longer stemmed from that race and the sole gallop shown on trainer Mick Channon's web site that Very Good Day has taken part in this year. There he finished last of four over nine furlongs, being stoked up from a long way out but not finding his stride in time to get past this three workmates. As on his debut, he looked like an out and out stayer.

I suspect Very Good Day will come on for this run as he had missed work according to trainer Mick Channon

Three weeks before the Cocked Hat Mick Channon said "He's a fine, big horse, a lovely horse who has just had a bit of a setback. It'll be a month or six weeks before we see him, and we'll find him a little maiden to get him going. I think he's a smashing type, I really like him, and by the end of the summer he could make up into a nice staying type. There's a lot of potential there."

Very Good Day looks and runs like a classy sort. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him develop into a good replacement for Youmzain.

CAPE TO RIO STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR COVENTRY

CAPE TO RIO (34) earned a Group 1 speed rating from me for his debut win at Folkestone. He wasn't asked to run anything like as hard when following up in a good Conditions race at Windsor. Jockey Richard Hughes seemed intent on saving something for next time on his mount, only riding him out hands and heels to secure the win by a length.

If Cape To Rio's next run was the Coventry I don't think Hughes would have been so cautious as that race is still a month away. It looks clear Richard Hannon's runner is going to take in the National Stakes on the way to Royal Ascot.

Hannon has not yet definitively said that Cape To Rio will be running in the Coventry rather than the Norfolk Stakes. But the way he finished out his race so strongly here does suggest that the longer contest is a better idea.

As a follower of big race statistics I'm hoping that Cape To Rio wins the National Stakes by a bigger margin. Seventeen of the last nineteen Coventry winners won their last race by two lengths or more while earning Racing Post ratings of 90 or higher (86 or higher if it was their racecourse debut). In addition, none of the 15 had lost more than one previous race.

One big plus about this race is that it showed Cape To Rio can act on faster ground. His pedigree raised some question about this so it's good to get it out of the way before Royal Ascot.

PINK SYMPHONY INTERESTING FOR THE OAKS

AVIATE (36) finished with a rush to win the Musidora narrowly after having trouble getting through. But even after adjusting for the somewhat modest early pace and near sprint finish I can't award her better than a Listed class speed rating for the win.

My feeling from watching the race is Aviate is built more like a ten than a twelve furlong horse and that she showed rather too much pace in the closing stages to be a good proposition over the longer distance at Epsom. It therefore seems logical to shoot for the French rather than the British oaks. The trouble with that is the French three year olds are such a hot group this year.

I now reckon trainer Henry Cecil is right to say Timepiece is superior to his other three year old fillies and that the early pace may have been too strong in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and that's why she didn't get home. The sectional times suggest he's right. The time for the first mile was 2.5 seconds quicker than in the Derby Trial. Earlier I felt Timepiece was a non stayer. Having seen how the other Oaks candidates have performed I'm keen to grab any excuse I can for her because she looked set to run a serious Group 1 time till tiring in the last 150 yards.

If there was an Oaks winner in the Musidora I suspect it was PINK SYMPHONY (34) who finished a close fourth. She used her long stride to close gradually into the near sprint finish and looked much more a mile and a half horse than the winner.

Pink Symphony is a rangy filly that's clearly built and bred for the Oaks trip. She won in good style when stepped up to a middle distance for the first time at Newbury on her seasonal debut.

In that race it was clear her jockey wanted to drop her in behind. But he looked behind and saw the field was too tightly packed for him to do so. Therefore he allowed her to lob along in second place in the early stages behind the modest early gallop set by the leader.

When asked to pick up three furlongs out Pink Symphony showed a very decent turn of foot to have her rivals flat to the boards, despite the fact she was running green and hanging towards the rail. When I adjust for the sprint finish it suggests Pink Symphony just slithered into what would normally be Listed territory for a three year old filly. I gave her the same rating as Aviate earned at York. That's pretty darned good in what does look an unusually weak year for three year old fillies in Britain and Ireland.

Pink Symphony clearly has the same turn of foot possessed by her top class three parts sister Fantasia. With a slightly stouter sire she does look to possess more stamina than that one though.

After the Newbury race trainer Paul Cole wrote on his web site "They went no sort of gallop, which was massively against her, but she pulled clear to score well enough. She showed she has speed, but will be better over a bit further." The way Pink Symphony ran in the Musidora suggests he's right.

Aidan O'Brien's charge CABARET (31) started favourite, and rightly so as she was the joint best juvenile filly in Europe last year on my ratings.

However the stats show that O'Brien has a poor record with horses off long lay offs in Group company.

In this regard it looks highly significant that O'Brien had run three fillies in the Musidora before Cabaret. All three subsequently showed themselves to be seriously good Group 1 performers but all three lost the Musidora.

Cabaret effectively didn't have a race in the Boussac on her final 2YO start because the saddle slipped. So this was her first real race in 300 days. In the circumstances we can forgive her for tiring in the final furlong.

Whether Cabaret can improve enough for this run to win the Oaks is debatable. There is also a concern that she hasn't grown much over the Winter. I'm prepared to believe she'll come back to her two year old form but need to see her show more than she did here before I can bet on it.

IMPOSING IS GROUP CLASS

IMPOSING (38) clocked a Group 3 time to win a good ten furlong handicap at York's Dante meeting. He came from a long way off the scorching early gallop set by runner up Indian Days (37) to win a shade comfortably.

The way that Imposing's runs have been so spread out shows that he had training troubles before the fracture which kept him off for over a year before this race. But it's clear his connections had very good reasons for persevering with him.

Seeing that he's built like a national hunt store horse and had a terrific pace to run at here I'd be rather wary of betting Imposing would be so effective over a normally run ten furlongs. He's clearly going to improve for the step up to a mile and a half.

If I'm right about Imposing's level of ability then it looks unlikely his official rating will stay low enough to allow him to contest the Ebor. Though he'd be a very interesting candidate if he did. Most likely he's only got one shot left at a big handicap prize and that will come in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot..

SARISKA STILL NOT UP TO BEATING THE BOYS

SARISKA (39) set a very strong pace and kept on well till tiring in the last half furlong to take the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York. Clearly she's every bit s good as she was last year.

Smart as she is, I don't think Sariska's entries in Group 1's against colts are warranted. Once more she earned a speed rating that's Group 1 for fillies but three lengths a mile of what is the norm for male Group 1 winners. She'll need to be kept to fillies races if she is to score again at the top level.

Sariska's trainer Michael Bell had warned he might pull his charge out of the race due to the lightning fast ground. But it turned out to be Sariska's old rival MIDDAY (38) who had trouble handling the surface. The way she put her head to one side entering the straight and held it high early showed she wasn't liking it. Nonetheless she started to claw back the winner's lead as she tired inside the final furlong and would I suspect have won if the race had been a mile and a half.

It's tough to tell exactly how hard the ground really was because there's a point beyond which it can no longer speed the horse's up any more. That point was reached and passed here. And the plethora of withdrawals of horses whose connections were worried about the surface suggests it was very hard indeed. This being so I wouldn't be too concerned at Midday's performance here. On normal firm ground she's fine, as she showed when winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. I continue to believe that she's slightly better than Sariska.

CAPE BLANCO HARD TO ASSESS

CAPE BLANCO (37) came away nicely in the closing stages to win the Dante by over three lengths. And I confess I'm having trouble gauging the true merit of his performance.

He clocked a time half a second slower than Sariska managed in the Middleton Stakes which points to a Group 3 class performance. However you could argue the early pace was slow enough to hurt the final time as they reached the three furlong pole in his race 1.7 seconds later than Sariska did.

The problem with this idea is that (a) Sariska set an unusually strong pace and that (b) a genuinely top class horse can probably claw back a little more than the 1.2 seconds Cape Blanco managed in the final three furlongs. This being so I'm inclined to leave his basic speed rating unchanged.

Cape Blanco's stride was rather stilted in the closing stages. This may have been the result of the ground being so hard. He was lame after the race, apparently due to hitting the same spot he cut into in an earlier gallop. However the way that trainer Aidan O'Brien refused to let the racecourse vet examine the horse after the race does raise worries in this regard - and not just about the horse. Surely the vet should have had access to security personnel to compel O'Brien and his staff to submit the horse for inspection.

I understand that Cape Blanco's owners would want to avoid any hint of unsoundness which would detract from the horse's future stud value. But the connections of all horses need to be made to understand that the betting public's right to know is of primary importance and must override all other considerations for the good of the game.

Runner up WORKFORCE (35) was surely not suited by the hard ground. He is a big, rangy colt with a large stride that shows knee action - meaning he hits the ground hard and is likely to appreciate a bit of ease in the ground. He looks an out and out mile and a half horse physically. He kept on well after getting the bit through his mouth and will almost certainly do better when he gets more cut in the ground. However I can't see him as a Derby horse on what he did here or on his debut.

You could argue that the twenty lengthy loss suffered by Sandown Classic Trial winner CHABAL (22) was one of several wide margin defeats caused by the hard ground. But it seems more likely that this run came too soon.

Chabal's connections had a dilemma before this race. He's shown in the past that he tends to pull hard - a trait that diminishes as a horse gains experience. The trouble is he's also a light-framed horse that probably needs his runs more spaced out. Simon Crisford, Godolphin’s Racing Manager, referred to this when suggesting after Sandown that Chabal might need more experience before a Derby bid. He said "Experience is the key word, but he can run up a bit light."

It seems that Chabal is still likely to line up at Epsom little more than three weeks after the Dante. That doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I'd anticipate him running poorly there but bouncing back to form if he's given a break and brought back in the Autumn.

PRINCIPAL ROLE STILL INTERESTING FOR THE OAKS

I suggested after she'd finished third despite being running green in the Nell Gwynn Stakes that PRINCIPAL ROLE (37) was an interesting prospect for the Oaks. She ran green again next time when first stepped up to ten furlongs in a race where the slow early pace cannot have helped her. But last week she improved on that to take the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial in very decent time.

Principal Role was still a bit green in the preliminaries and the early stages of the race. But she picked up really well in the final furlong to collar Fatanah who had been allowed her own way up front. She only won by a short head but looked a significantly better filly than the runner up as she was going right away just after the line and finished full of run whereas Fatanah was tiring.

The extra quarter mile of the Oaks looks sure to favour Principal Role. I'd say the bookies have got her too big at 16-1.

Runner up FATANAH (37) most likely won't get the Oaks trip judged by her pedigree and the way she was tiring in the closing stages. But she's up to winning a Group race for fillies on my ratings.

Further back in the field MYPLACELATER (24) weakened badly to finish last by nearly seventeen lengths. She's only a medium-sized, light-framed filly and this was her seventh start in 100 days. It seems clear she's now in need of a break. On her previous form she looked one of the top three year old middle-distance fillies. Once she's been rested I'd bet on her proving that again.

BERLING IS SMART

Watching BERLING (36) win a class 4 handicap over eleven furlongs at Newbury had me wondering how well he might have done if he'd run in one of the Derby Trials. He came within two or three lengths a mile of most of the winners of those races on my ratings despite diving wildly right across the track in the final furlong.

Berling produced a serious turn of foot here to win by nearly three lengths and was full of run crossing the line. He obviously improved for the step in distance and will surely improve again as he gains experience and stops running so green. If he were mine I'd shoot for the King George V Handicap at Ascot than move on to pattern races.

PACO BOY STILL ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE IN SMALL FIELDS

PACO BOY (40) showed once more that he's almost unstoppable in fields of ten or less when producing his trademark turn of foot to take the Lockinge. He has problems fighting for position in big fields as he's below average size. But his acceleration and tremendous class makes him very hard to beat in fields of ten or less.

So far Paco Boy has won ten of the eleven times he's run in fields of ten or less, finishing second to the very smart Rip Van Winkle in his sole loss. He's lost all six times he's contested races with more runners. Obvious his future chances depend on the quantity rather than the quality of his opposition.

An impressive aspect of Paco Boy's performance was that he outpaced two sprinters in the closing stages off a slow early pace that played to his rival's strengths.

Runner up was OUQBA (39) impressed me with the way he quickened clear a furlong out. The moderate early pace enabled him to last the mile but you don’t often get a slow early pace in a Group 1 race over a mile so I'd be highly dubious of his prospects in the Queen Anne. Later on though he surely has a major shot of Group 1 success in the Foret over seven furlongs. If he were mine I'd be thinking hard about taking him to America as the slow early pace of turf races over there would ensure he got the mile and his turn of foot would make him tough to beat.

LORD SHANAKILL (36) tired in the last furlong to finish third, finally proving once and for all that he doesn't truly stay a mile. He nearly did so here off a slow pace and actually managed to win the Prix Jean Prat off an even slower early gallop last year. But logically the right thing to do now is surely to take up his entry in the six furlong Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He's built for sprinting and that race is surely more suitable than longer options.

THE CHEKA (35) simply couldn't pick up with his rivals in the closing stages and surely needs to go up to ten furlongs now. He could well be very smart over that trip.

MAKFI IS AN EXCEPTIONAL GUINEAS WINNER

As readers of this column are aware, I reckoned the 2000 Guineas was a straightforward match between Richard Hannon's colts Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs. So I was feeling rather smug approaching the final furlong when it looked like they were going to fill the first two places and trigger a near 200-1 Computer Straight Forecast pay-off.

The I spotted some French thing called MAKFI (42) with a sheepskin noseband who'd just lobbed along from the back without much pressure and breezed through to beat them both readily.

After spending a futile few minutes impotently cursing the entire French nation I realised I'd just watched a seriously good performance from Makfi and started watching the video again and analysing the time.

One remarkable aspect of Makfi's performance was how he and the second and third were able to pick up so strongly off a relatively modest early gallop to clock a seriously fast time. They actually came home a full two seconds quicker over the last two furlongs than borderline Group 2 older horses managed in the valuable nine furlong handicap earlier on the card.

I confess that I'd dismissed Makfi as a ten furlong horse that was lucky enough to hit a soft field when winning the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs in a time two fifths of a second slower than the fillies in the Prix Imprudence on the same card. But the Prix Imprudence was a red hot race (the second and third have gone on to win the Italian and British 1000 Guineas). In addition Makfi won the Djebel very cosily, and it looks likely to me that if camera angles had allowed me to clock the sectional times I would have found he came home a good deal quicker over the last three furlongs than the fillies managed.

Makfi is a classy looking colt with a remarkably relaxed, lazy way of running. He just lollops along without seeming to be doing much. But he's clearly very smart indeed. I rate him bang there with the best 2000 Guineas winners of recent years on my ratings.

I'm still not totally convinced Makfi is a natural miler. A lot of people seem to think he's bred that way, but his sire ran third in the Derby and pretty much everything on the dam's side got ten furlongs. He has the build of a ten furlong horse in my opinion. If he were mine I'd be inclined to let him take up his engagement in the Prix du Jockey Club rather than going up against Canford Cliffs again in the St James's Palace Stakes.

DICK TURPIN (41) had the advantage of quickening things up from the front. But he'd run just as fast according to my speed ratings when coming from behind Canford Cliffs to win the Greenham. He's clearly a very versatile horse that can show brilliant form on a wide variety of tracks and surfaces.

My one concern is that Dick Turpin seems to be one of those horses that always runs very fast. Such horses tend to be best fresh, so I'm a bit worried the Irish Guineas is only three weeks away. His form tapered off at the end of last season and he's now run spectacularly fast in back to back races this term. That said, he's a big strong horse that can probably take another run. He certainly looks the one they'll all have to beat at the Curragh.

CANFORD CLIFFS (40) threw his head around wildly against the slow early pace then settled into a better rhythm when the gallop picked up sharply at halfway. He surged forwards after the two furlong marker but you could see him change his legs in the dip where his jockey said he didn't want to lengthen when he asked him due to the firm ground.

Trainer Richard Hannon has said several times that he's worried about firm ground for Canford Cliffs as he's such a top heavy horse. Now that the horse is three and presumably bigger this has to be more of a concern. After this run and seeing the way Canford Cliffs shifted his ground in the Greenham it's likely he'd benefit from a softer surface.

Then again Canford Cliffs has run really big in his two starts this season on fast ground, so let's not be too hasty about forming judgements. He's only been beaten by Dick Turpin and Makfi, and it's clear they are both top class horses.

It is also worth noting that Canford Cliffs has finished full of run in both his starts this season. It could be he's wanting to go up to ten furlongs. Certainly he's appreciate a stronger early pace than he's encountered in his two starts this term. And the stiff uphill finish at Ascot should be a plus for him if he shoots for the St James's Palace Stakes which is his next intended target. It may also be that running around a turn will help him as it will ensure he gets more cover and isn't tempted to pull hard or hang as he has this term.

Physically Canford Cliffs is most unlike the vast majority of horses by his sire Tagula. So I think it's significant that pretty much everything on his dam's side stayed ten furlongs or more. If he were mine I'd be making the Eclipse Stakes his big target as it's an event that usually goes to a horse that's shown smart form over less then ten furlongs that same season. Leaving a step up to ten furlongs as an afterthought to his season in the Champion Stakes could prove a costly mistake. An even bigger one would be for Canford Cliffs' connections to listen to all those siren voices telling them the horse needs to cut back to six furlongs. That's just plain daft in my opinion.

Hopefully firm ground won't be a limiting factor for Canford Cliffs as there's likely to be nothing but firm ground for all his potential big targets this Summer. My thinking right now is he'll act on it fine. If it does prove a problem then there's always the big Autumn races where softer ground is more likely.

XTENSION (39) kept on well to hold fourth place. He looked to be bothered by the big field, taking a slight bump at the start and then finding a bit of trouble negotiating a clear path. This being so it may well be significant that his two wins have been in the smallest fields he's tackled. I continue to think he'll stay ten furlongs.

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (39) stayed on nicely to finish fifth. Clearly he needs ten furlongs and might well prove capable of taking a Group 1 when he's given the chance to run that far.

Sixth placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (38) is an out and out twelve furlong horse on looks and pedigree so it was astonishing to see him sent off even money favourite.

Indeed you may recall that for much of the Winter Ladbrokes refused to price up St Nicholas Abbey in their 2000 Guineas betting despite his impressive win in the Racing Post Trophy. They clearly shared my view that it would have been misleading and unethical to make what looked an obvious non runner a short priced favourite in an ante-post market.

I continued to think St Nicholas Abbey would skip the Guineas when he took part in the mile gallop for the middle distance horses rather than the seven furlong one for milers that O'Brien staged at the Curragh on March 21st. That day he got caught by subsequent unlucky Ballysax Stakes loser Mikhail Glinka close home which I thought put the final nail in the coffin of his Guineas bid.

Yet here we had the horse proving me and Ladbrokes running by taking part in the first Classic.

St Nicholas Abbey was certainly impressive in the Racing Post Trophy and he was staying on nicely late here too after looking to get a bit unbalanced and losing ground in the dip. But, despite the distance clearly being too short this time, there now has to be a major concern about whether he's trained on. He earned exactly the same speed figure from me here that he did in the Racing Post Trophy. It represents a Group 1 performance for a two year old but only Group 3 level for a three year old.

Another thing that nags away at me about St Nicholas Abbey is that rather awkward, choppy stride pattern he has. It surely makes him best suited to softer ground. In addition it ensures he hits the ground a good deal harder than ideal on downhill sections of a course like the dip at Newmarket and the much more prolonged gradient around Tattenham Corner at Epsom.

Ten of the last fourteen Racing Post Trophy winners either showed a brief spurt of form in the Spring and then flopped or never won again. My feeling is that St Nicholas Abbey is heading in this direction. I've little doubt he'll be deposed as Derby favourite after the big Derby Trials have been run this week.

FENCING MASTER (38) is a mature good-bodied sort that's clearly developed well over the Winter. For a horse that's clearly built for at least ten furlongs he did really well to be close up for so long and finish only four and a quarter lengths off the winner. He obviously has a shot in the Irish Guineas, especially if the early pace is stronger. But long term his best shot of Group 1 success surely lies over ten furlongs.

AL ZIR (36) is another ten furlong sort. He did well to get as close as he did following a slow start.

Al Zir has a fast ground action. He's mature and good looking, though he was still a trifle leggy at two.

I like the way Al Zir lengthened to put away two rivals in a slow run Conditions race at Doncaster last term. He didn't look to be going through the slower surface as well when third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy. But the way the winner sprinted away from him did raise clear doubts about just how effective he could be over a mile on a straight course. Those doubts were confirmed here.

The Dante is the obvious target for Al Zir next time. I can see him going well there, and I'm going to let his run at York guide my opinion about whether he'll get the mile and a half in the Derby.

DON'T READ TOO MUCH INTO 1000 GUINEAS RESULT

There's no question that SPECIAL DUTY (37) deserved to be awarded the 1000 Guineas after being carried across the track by Jacqueline Quest (37). But despite the win her performance was some way off her best on my speed ratings. Clearly her performance was impaired by the yielding ground as much as the interference from the Cecil filly.

In addition it does seem clear that the relatively small group the first five raced in on the stands side were running on faster ground to the main body of the field on the opposite side of the course. This being so I wouldn't read too much into the result. We know Special Duty is Group 1 class from her previous form. But the next four home still need to prove they're better than Listed to Group 3 class.

It's worth noting that the amazing stat linking French Cheveley Park Stakes winners and the 1000 Guineas prevailed once more. Special Duty's success means that the last four French trained winners of the Cheveley Park have all gone on to win the 1000 Guineas.

It would have been interesting to see how MUSIC SHOW (31) would have fared if she'd raced on the stands side. She led the bigger group home on the other side of the track and had won four of her five previous outings. Like Special Duty she would have appreciated faster ground as well.

HAWKEYETHENOO IS A SMART SPRINTER

I tend to avoid writing up fast British sprinters because there are so many of them. However I simply must report the fast time HAWKEYETHENOO (40) clocked to take a valuable six furlong handicap on Newmarket's 1000 Guineas card.

Hawkeyethenoo had a fair bit of trouble negotiating his way through the giant field but eventually got up to win going away by more than a length while clocking what I rated a Group 2 class time.

If one photo had gone his way and he hadn't lost ground at the start in another race Hawkeyethenoo would most likely have won all six of his starts since joining Jim Goldie's stable. Even if he goes up a stone for this win he's still incredibly well handicapped, so I can understand why his connections were talking about the Wokingham and Ayr Gold Cup.

The problem they face is that the more Hawkeyethenoo runs the more his handicap mark is likely to go up. So if he were mine I'd be strongly inclined to run him no more than once before the Wokingham, if at all and then lay him off before bringing him back later in the season for the Ayr Gold Cup.

ELLIPTICAL AND RIGGINS GET INTERESTING

Nine furlongs is not a great distance to specialise in outside America. But it's clearly the right trip for TARTAN GIGHA (39). If that short head photo had gone his way in last year's Cambridgeshire his win in a valuable handicap on Newmarket's 2000 Guineas card would have been his fourth win in four tries on turf over eight and a half or nine furlongs.

Given his very tight distance requirement and the fact a penalty will push his official mark up to around 100 I'm not sure Tartan Gigha is going to be easy to place. The second and third ELLIPTICAL (39) and RIGGINS (39) look more attractive betting propositions in the immediate future.

Elliptical is a really good looking horse and appeared to be going best from some way out. He closed smoothly but too slowly on the winner in the last furlong and just failed to get up. His form seems best on straight courses, so the Hunt Cup looks to be his obvious target.

Riggins has had a litany of physical problems but is clearly smart. He stayed on very strongly and will surely get ten furlongs despite that dreadful run over the trip (when surely something went wrong seeing how long he was off afterwards)