LE ROI MIGUEL IS FAST - BUT WILL HE STAY?

LE ROI MIGUEL (43) earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded so far this season when blasting home by 20 lengths in the Peterborough Chase. Clearly this dual Grade 1 winner is now back to his very best following the breathing operation that has revived so many of his stablemates.

However, before you go and rush to take the miserly 6-1 now being offered about Le Roi Miguel for the King George I'd urge you to consider his pedigree.

Le Roi Miguel's sire, Point Of No Return, began his career on the flat, and, like most flat racers, failed to stay longer trips over hurdles. He won four times out of eight over timber at trips up to 2m 3f but was beaten 25 lengths plus and ran sixth or worse all three times he tried further. He's admittedly only had 12 offspring and only half made it to the track, but none scored over more than 2m 5f so far.

Le Roi Miguel's dam also started off on the flat. She won over trips up to 2m 5f over fences and has not had a foal that's won over longer from the six she's produced so far.

I concede that trips beyond 2m 6f are rare in France. But both Le Roi Miguel's sire and dam had runners in Britain that failed to stay.

In this regard, I think it's worth bearing in mind Raceform's comments from the only race in which Le Roi Miguel has tried 3 miles so far, last year's King George; "Le Roi Miguel was beginning to tire when making a bad mistake at the third last and was dropping out of the picture when coming to grief at the final flight. He looked a blatant non-stayer."

You can, if you wish, bet that Le Roi Miguel's breathing problems caused him to tire in the King George last year. But normally it's advisable to demand very strong evidence of stamina before betting that any French-bred jumper is going to stay more than 2m 6f. Only a handful of jump races in France are run beyond 2m 6f, so it makes sense that the French don't breed many horses to run further.

As I see it, Le Roi Miguel is not likely to get home in the King George. Thereafter at shorter trips though he's going to be tough to beat.

MASSAC (40) and MONDIAL JACK (40) fought out the finish of the Grade 2 chase at Windsor and are clearly a good deal better than their official handicap marks suggest. This being so I wouldn't want to oppose either of them in handicaps right now. Similar comments apply to NON SO (40) who looked likely to win when falling two out.

On the same card JONES'S ROAD (36) showed extraordinary improvement on his Irish form to stroll home by 18 lengths in a fast run novices' handicap chase. I strongly suspect he'll still be well handicapped after this win so the logical thing to do is surely to forget about novice events and go for a decent handicap against experienced rivals. He's just shy of Graded class on this run, but below that level I'd be wary of opposing him.

SILVER BIRCH (38) won the Becher Chase in decent time. He clearly stays well and loves soft ground. In fact Silver Birch has now won four of the five times he's run on soft ground at three and a quarter miles or more. It's very rare for a second season chaser to have sufficient jumping skills to win the Grand National. But in 2006, if the ground is soft and Silver Birch has managed to stay sound, he'll surely be big player over these difficult fences once again. Meanwhile this season he'll be a threat in any other big staying handicap chase when he gets his ground.

BUY ON THE RED (38) only just missed beating the course record on the Polytrack at Lingfield when taking a hot class C handicap. He's a pattern class horse according to my ratings and will be tough to beat when he returns to Lingfield for his planned next start.

Runner-up BINANTI (36) is a horse that needs a lightning fast surface to produce his best on grass, so it's not surprising he took so well to the Polytrack. He ought to be able to win very soon as long as he can avoid Buy On The Red.

Third-paced SECRET PLACE (36) is probably at least as good as the winner because he was going best turning in but looked to blow up through lack of fitness off his lengthy break close home. It now looks likely that Secret Place is essentially an AW performer. AW horses invariably need really firm ground to reproduce their form on turf. Secret Place has now won the only time he's encountered really firm turf on grass at his specialist distance of seven furlongs. Before this race he had also won both times he'd run over seven furlongs on the AW. So he was basically defending a perfect 3 for 3 record here. If he returns to the AW at his specialist trip I wouldn't care to oppose him.

JACK SULLIVAN (37) also ran a big time on the Polytrack when taking a pretty warm class C event. He'd finished second in a Group 3 race on the dirt at Nad Al Sheba back in February and is clearly a useful performer on the AW. Unfortunately his official rating is so high there aren't that many opportunities for him on his favoured surface.

Sometimes it's almost impossible to make a speed figure over jumps because of the limited number of races on a card and the fact that so many jump races are slow run. This was the case with ASHLEY BROOK (36) who ran 27 points faster than any other horse on the day when winning a Newton Abbot Novice Chase by a distance. All I can do is award Ashley Brook the same speed rating he's earned before. He could easily be better. So far he's unbeaten and unextended in two outings over fences.

Cherub (36) and IBERUS (36) ran up to their smart German form when pulling clear of the field to go 1-2 in a Market Rasen novice hurdle. I doubt that you'll get rich following Cherub since he's already a Grade 1 winner over hurdles. However, from the reports about the race it looks like Iberus is going to be generally under-rated, so I'd say he's the horse to take out of the race.

BEST MATE (27) did not put up a fast time when winning the William Hill Chase at Exeter, basically because the early pace was slow. However I would not knock his performance. Firstly, winning margins tend to be radically compressed in slow run races. Secondly, in SEEBALD (27) he faced a seriously decent rival.

Last season Seebald earned one of the biggest speed ratings I awarded when taking a strongly run 2m 5f chase at Cheltenham. His big starting price suggested that a lot of people will assumed he doesn't stay three miles because of his three bad runs at the distance. But at the time he put in those runs he was also running terribly at shorter trips. Outside of that period he had won four of his five starts at two and a quarter miles or more. Seeing how well he did here and how fast he ran over a stiff 2m 5f before, I reckon it's pretty clear he's best over longer trips. In fact, I rather fancy his chances in the King George.

As for Best Mate, well he's earned a rating of 44 from me when taking the Gold Cup last year and you have to go back three years to find a race where he got beat over three miles or more. He did well to win on his seasonal debut in a race that wasn't run to bring out his undoubted stamina. I do hope he runs in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and that Beef Or Salmon goes there too. I've noted before that outside of one race where he was coughing, Beef Or Salmon has now won eight times out of eight in chases with eight runners or less. With both the big names running I'd bet on the Lexus Chase cutting up to a small field, and that means Beef Or Salmon won't get crowded at the jumps and forced into errors as he has been before. So it should be the best chance he'll ever have of beating Best Mate.

ARMATURK AND WELL CHIEF ARE CHAMPIONSHIP CLASS

This season we've seen three horses trained by Paul Nicholls show terrific form following breathing operations - Armaturk, Perouse and Royal Auclair. Armaturk never used to run well on undulating tracks because of the stress they placed on his breathing. Now he's won two good races in a row on such tracks. Royal Auclair was winless in 14 tries since March 2002 but bounced back to win a Listed race on his first start following the breathing operation. Perouse was brilliant but inconsistent due to bleeding brought on by breathing problems. Now he's gone and won a big Grade 2 hurdle at Wincanton after his breathing operation.

Clearly Nicholls has hit on some new breathing operation or has employed a very smart vet. As a result we can bet on several of his horses showing better and more consistent form than they were previously able to. ARMATURK (42) is certainly one of these, and he continued his revival at Cheltenham, where the undulating nature of the track had caused him to run well below form in five previous visits.

In winning the Beards Jewellers Cup, Armaturk earned a rating from me that puts him level with Azertyuiop and Moscow Flyer. I now look forward to the chance of betting him at nice odds to win in Grade 1 company, just as he did as a novice. I'd prefer it if he were rested for five or six weeks now as most of the top two milers go best fresh. But, seeing the miracles Paul Nicholls has been working with breathing operations, I'm not going to place too many pre-conditions on where I bet his rejuvenated runners.

WELL CHIEF (42) put up an extraordinary performance for a novice tackling experienced chasers for the first time. Ex novice chases such as Well Chief have a tough time in such circumstances because novices just don't jump as fast as experienced chasers. So the first time a smart novice tackles them it can get taken off its likely to get taken off its feet and forced into jumping errors.

In fact, if you look back at the last decade you'll find that of the 42 winners of Grade 1 novice chases that faced experienced chasers for the first time in Graded company only 11 won. Nine of the 42 failed to complete the course. In other words the stats suggest that a horse like Well Chief either wins the first time it tackles good experienced chasers or runs well below form due to jumping errors.

On this occasion Well Chief's jumping errors were restricted to the first three fences. After that he seemed to get used to pinging the fences like his more experienced rivals. The errors had cost him plenty of ground though, so he did amazingly well to finish with a big surge from the final fence and go under by only a head.

With this experience under his belt I'd now be wary of opposing Well Chief next time. I'm hoping that he goes for the Tingle Creek at Sandown since that's the only race where I'll get any sort of price about him. My ratings indicate he has a major chance in that contest and in all the big two mile chases to come.

TYSOU (41) ran a humungous race to finish a close third to the two Grade 1 winners. And the question must now be asked 'why on earth does he run so incredibly well on certain occasions'. You may recall that Tysou looked on the way to winning the very same race from the smart Cenkos last year. So it could well be that he's best at Cheltenham and other really stiff tracks. Personally, seeing how well he runs on stiff tracks, off a strong pace and with cut in the ground, I'm inclined to believe that Tysou might run more consistently over longer than two miles. Admittedly he faded badly on his only UK start at a longer trip. But he stayed on strongly to be a close fourth over two and a quarter miles at Auteuil earlier in his career, and there are strong indications from both sides of his pedigree that he'd be effective over that far at least.

CELESTIAL GOLD (40) won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in decent time. Right now, with so few runs to his name, he's a hard horse to read. My best guess is that he's best fresh, so he should be fine for his next start. After that though I'd like to see five or six weeks between his runs. How good he is I can't say. He ran a solid Grade 2 time here though.

THISTHATANDTOTHER (39) ran a good race to take second despite being hampered by a faller. I've given him ratings as high as 43 in previous races, and I note with interest that all his fastest runs by my estimates have come on tight tracks. He's won against Grade 2 and lower class novices on galloping tracks, but now that he's facing experienced rivals I suspect his best chances of more big race success will come on tight tracks.

According to my ratings MARCEL (38) had twice run faster than any novice hurdler previously had this season but was dramatically opposed in the betting for the Grade 2 Sharp Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. He won anyway, extending his unbeaten UK run to six. He's now hit exactly the same speed rating three times, so I'm inclined to believe that it's as fast as he can run. This means he's probably just shy of championship class.

I've been whittering on about ACCORDION ETOILE (42) in this column for quite a while now. And I make no excuses for doing so again, as he has just gone and run even faster than he has before. In winning a Grade 3 Handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Sunday he earned a speed rating from me that ranks as the best hurdle rating I've awarded all season.

Accordion Etoile has now won all five times he's encountered going faster than yielding over hurdles. But before saying he's the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle I want to see him win in a big field off a strong pace. The early pace here slowed up in the middle of the race and that won't happen in the Champion Hurdle. It could be that he's best suited to tactical races and small fields. Though that is no bad thing. There are a whole stack of conditions hurdles which normally feature small fields and I wouldn't want to oppose Accordion Etoile in any of them if he gets his ground.

WESTENDER (41) showed that he still has the ability to win at the top level by running second. Most people don't like him because he refused over fences, has run second so many times and hasn't won since 2001. But in a small field on fast ground he could easily win a decent conditions hurdle this season.

Seeing the lack of front runners in the race and the way he'd won when allowed to bowl along last time I was surprised to see PEROUSE (41) held up on this occasion. He still ran a big race to finish a close third and is capable of taking another race like this.

ROOSTER BOOSTER (39) was a bit backward on his seasonal debut according to Raceform and wouldn't have been suited to the stop-go pace. Nonetheless he ran a big race to be fourth. He's running as fast as ever according to my ratings, so I would be wary of writing off his chances of another win in the Champion Hurdle. He's still basically bomb-proof over two miles once he's had a run and the pace is strong.

TROUBLE AT BAY (38) ran a very decent time to run fifth, improving significantly on his best previous speed rating. It looks like his official rating understates his ability, so I'd be very interested in his chances in a big handicap hurdle like the Tote Gold Trophy.

COPELAND (38) is also worth noting. He ran sixth on ground that was probably faster than ideal for him. My read of Copeland's form is that he's best on soft or heavy ground. In fact he's won the last three times he's encountered going that my calculations indicate was soft or heavy - beating Rooster Booster into second the first two times and Intersky Falcon the third. Give him his ground and I reckon Copleand could win a big conditions hurdle at huge odds.

The horse everyone was raving about after Cheltenham was Fundamentalist (35) who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase at the meeting by eight lengths. Maybe Fundamentalist is the superstar so many people are claiming, but he's yet to run a decent time. The best three speed figures I've awarded him so far are 34, 35 and 36 - well short of championship class. He really ought to have run faster by now, so I'll be opposing him when he starts taking on some of the faster members of this season's unusually fast novice chasing crop.

HORUS (43) ran a sensational time to win the Edward Hamner Memorial Chase at Haydock. Trainer Martin Pipe looks to have the horse's preferences spot on. He said after the race "he seems to run well on a Flat track, he is best when fresh and three and a quarter miles is too far for him." Horses that are best fresh tend to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is they are good for their first two starts off a long break but need five or six weeks between their runs thereafter in order to run up to form. Horus seems to conform to this pattern. So if he can be steered away from undulating tracks like Cheltenham or Chepstow next time he should be well nigh unstoppable at less than three and a quarter miles. I suspect many are going to under-rate his performance here. According to my ratings, it suggests he is capable of beating just about any chaser in training given his optimum conditions.

CHIVES (41) ran right up to his best on the soft ground he loves to take second. It's amazing that a horse as good as he is hasn't won for so long. Surely he'll take something big soon if he gets his ground.

KEEN LEADER (41) had won all six of his previous runs on soft or heavy ground. But he found the task of giving chunks of weight away on his seasonal debut just too much. IN doing so, he racked up another very big speed figure and confirmed that he's right up there with the very best chasers when there's cut in the ground.

SIMPLY GIFTED (37) is another mudlark. And, though he tired over the last three fences, he ran too fast to suggest he didn't get three miles. I think he's best in a small field and see him winning something decent on yielding or softer ground this season, whether it's at two and a half or three miles.

DEL MAR SUNSET (38) has blanked in 14 starts on the grass but is a seriously good AW performer when fresh. He showed this when running a really fast time to score at Wolverhampton the other day.

My read of Del Mar Sunset's form is that he will run well on his first two stars after a six week break but needs a break of at least 34 days to run well again. But for one short head loss he would have won six times out of six on the AW in these circumstances. You could argue that the six month gap before his penultimate start now means he'll still be fresh enough to score again even if he's brought back quickly. Personally I'd like to see his connections waith that magical 34 days or longer which is indicated by his form before they run him again. If they do I wouldn't want to oppose him.

Runner-up WAKE (36) has a proper dirt pedigree and would have been winning for the second time in two AW starts but for bumping up against a pattern class performer here. If he can avoid del Mar Sunset next time he ought to win. Indeed, with just six lifetime runs, he still has the potential to turn out very smart on AW.

RUSSIAN CONSORT (33) ran a Listed class time when winning a decent Lingfield nursery handicap by a couple of lengths. He ran below form in the Horris Hill last time and it remains to be seen whether he can really act on grass. In the short term that won't matter as he's due to return to the AW for one more run before he's put away till next year. It would take an unusually good horse to beat him.

THE MARKET MAN IS WORTH INVESTING IN NEXT TIME

THE MARKET MAN (37) had better flat form than most New Zealand imports (he beat half the field home in the NZ Derby) and he certainly looks a useful hurdling recruit judged on the time he ran at Kempton. He ran around a bit under pressure which suggests he can improve.

MCBAIN (36) looked the winner for a long way and pulled clear of the rest to chase The Market Man home. His flat form shows that he excels on soft ground. It was heavy here. I'd be wary of supporting him on fast ground. But if he encounters soft going next time I'd be wary of opposing him in a normal novice hurdle.

COLONEL FRANK (37) is held in high regard by his trainer, Brendan Powell, and validated that opinion by winning a decent handicap chase at Sandown by seven lengths. This was a good performance by a novice against experienced chasers. It's also interesting to note that Colonel Frank is an unusually good jumper for a novice. He has yet to make a mistake in his four outings over fences to date. In fact, in one race, he jumped a fence slowly, suggesting that he'd rather put himself right at a jump by slowing down than risk falling. That's the way a horse needs to jump to win the Grand National, so I dare say Brendan Powell is already dreaming of the big race a few year's hence. Meanwhile I'd say Colonel Frank's safe jumping makes him an interesting proposition for races over longer trips and in bigger fields. Powell says the horse is a buzzy sort who needs time between his races, so I'd be wary of betting him if he's ever rushed back in a month or less since his latest outing.

COMPLY OR DIE (38) is another useful novice chaser, and he proved this when making all the running at a good pace to take a Grade 2 contest at Wincanton. He's probably worth following, but he'll need to find improvement if he's going to win the Sun Alliance Chase.

Runner-up DISTANCE THUNDER (37) is an interesting performer. His trainer says that he ran below form at Haydock last year because he traveled badly. I note with interest that Distance Thunder also ran badly the only other time he was asked to travel a long way from his west country base. At venues closer to home he'd won his two most recent starts before this contest and looks a good bet to get back into the winner's enclosure if he's kept to a local course next time.

THE FRENCH FURZE (39) won the same hurdle at Ayr that the took last year before winning the Fighting Fifth. He's heading for the same race again and my ratings say he should have a real chance, as long as none of the very best hurdlers turn up and the field is as small as it normally is. The French Furze seems best in a small field. In fact the only time he won a race with more than nine starters was in a ten runner affair when only eight completed. He's blanked in 33 other starts in fields of ten plus.

Runner-up PAPERPROPHET (38) is rather well handicapped according to my speed ratings. He's now won four of his seven hurdles starts and finished second to smart horses in the other three. He has the ability to win a Grade 3 hurdle but remains eligible for ordinary handicaps.

ST MATTHEW (37) keeps bumping into smart opponents and run another good race to finish third. He'd surely have an easier time of things if he switched back to chasing where he's still unbeaten after two tries.

DREAM TONIC (34) showed tremendous improvement to win a Musselburgh maiden in pattern class time. Because of the low class venue and fuzziness of the form, I suspect he will only earn an official mark in the low 80's for this performance. That makes him a terrific prospect for handicaps next season. According to Raceform Dream Tonic was backward on his racecourse debut. So this was probably the first time he was fully fit and had a chance to show what he can do.

ALCAZAR (38) did his thing to win the Listed race on the same card. Everyone knows how good the old boy is, but he is awfully hard to beat when fresh, so he's probably still worth bearing in mind for his seasonal debut next term.

PENANG SAPPHIRE (34) won a hot Nottingham nursery in pattern class time. He's bred for much longer than the five furlongs he won over and clearly improved for the stamina-sapping conditions. He looks an interesting prospect for next season over longer trips.

GHOSTZAPPER IS AWFULLY QUICK

The Breeders' Cup race meeting produced several amazingly slow times and one that was incredibly fast.

The Breeders' Cup Turf went to Better Talk Now (39) who somehow beat a far better performer in Powerscourt into third. This is the second year in a row that a slow US turf runner has won the or dead heated in this race, and it looks to me that when it's run around a really tight course like this one the European runners flounder.

The Breeders' Cup Mile was won in Listed class time by Singletary (37) from the luckless Antonius Pius, and again, it looked like the very tight turns tipped things heavily in favour of the local runners.

The dirt course at Lone Star is bigger, and Wilko (34) won over it, to take what the clock says was a very much sub-par renewal of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Talk of Wilko winning the Kentucky Derby is fanciful. He'd lost all six tries in pattern company before this race and only improved slightly for the switch to dirt.

GHOSTZAPPER (47) was the real star of the show. He was awfully impressive when winning the Breeders' Cup Classic and his time was just amazing. Still, the early pace wasn't as strong as it could have been, and, having seen Ghostzapper tire badly after a fiercely contested duel for the lead last time, I'll still be prepared to side against him, especially beyond nine furlongs, if he looks likely to get serious competition up front early on.

MODESTA (37) has run faster than when winning a Listed race at Yarmouth last week. In fact, according to my speed ratings, she has twice run fast enough to win in Group company. It's unfortunate that she attempted to gain ground into an accelerating pace when she came from far back to lose the Group 2 Park Hill stakes by just two lengths. It's also a pity that she seemed to get jarred up by the extremely hard ground when losing the Ribblesdale stakes at Royal Ascot. If she were kept in training I'm convinced she could win a decent Group race. But now that she's gone and earned the black type needed to ensure her stud value I imagine she'll be retired, which is a shame.

PLEA BARGAIN (33) won a Yarmouth maiden in Listed class time by five lengths. John Gosden says he is a light-framed horse that needs to be brought along slowly. Next year I can see Plea Bargain winning the Galphay Classified stakes at Ripon before going well in the Classic Trial at Sandown. That's the route Gosden has often gone in the past with what looks to be a ten furlong horse like Plea Bargain.

SLEEPING INDIAN (39) earned a decent Group class speed rating when awarded the race after a troubled passage in the Ben Marshall stakes at Newmarket. He remains unbeaten after two starts and might well prove capable of being competitive in Group 1 races next season.

BABODANA (39) lost the race in the stewards' room and has now past the post first all three times he's run a mile up the straight. He won over six furlongs on his debut, but since then he's failed in seventeen tries at longer or shorter than a mile or around a turn. The logical race to shoot for early next season has to be the Lockinge Stakes. It's run over a mile up the straight and is often a weak Group 1.

AYAM ZAMAN (35) won the Zetland stakes by five lengths in a time that marks her out as a decent Group class staying filly. She's a few lengths off the fastest of her age and sex on this showing, but clearly has stamina in abundance. The race for her next term is surely the Lingfield Oaks Trial, as it's longer than the other Oaks trials and is frequently run on soft ground.

RACE THE ACE (37) ran away with a Newmarket staying handicap in Listed class time. He's clearly a useful horse over two miles and looks to be a Cup horse in the making, like his half brother Give Notice. Whether or not he needs soft ground to run his best remains to be seen. In any event, if, as planned, he turns out for Doncaster's last flat meeting I would not want to oppose him.

TELEMOSS (39) is one of those jumpers who seems to have any amount of ability but has a fragile physique. When he's fresh and racing on soft ground he's a tough horse to beat and showed this when winning a strongly run Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle. I'd be wary of opposing him next time as he'll still be fresh. But if he's rushed back quickly any time after that (i.e. in less than six weeks since his last start) I'd be happy to go against him, especially on fast ground.

Runner-up CRYSTAL D'AINAY (39) confirmed that he's one of the best staying hurdlers. He's now won five of the ten times he's run two and a quarter miles or more. Three of his losses have come at Aintree, so I wonder whether he's at his best on a tight track.

Close third ST MATTHEW (39) has been alternating chasing and hurdling this year. He ran a seriously fast time but probably earned a 20 pound hike from the handicapper for finishing so close to two of the top staying hurdlers. He'll be tough to place over timber for this reason, so I expect to see his connections exploit his novice status back over fences, where he's still unbeaten after two tries.

CALATAGAN (38) showed serious improvement to win a Cheltenham handicap hurdle against a big field in fast time. His trainer said last Spring that he was a hard pulling horse that had been calmed down by the lad looking after him. Seeing that Calatagan has now won both his hurdle races since then, it's clear he's improved and is capable of winning much better races than the class E contest he took at Cheltenham.

Runner-up VALANCE (37) had won his only previous completed start over hurdles by 13 lengths and looks very much under-rated by official handicap ratings. I'd be surprised if he doesn't win soon.

UNION DEUX (37) won a low grade novices handicap hurdle in unusually fast time in the mud at Wetherby. On this run he is ludicrously well handicapped so it's understandable that his connections aim to strike again quickly before he's re-assessed.

Mistanoora (37) won the valuable totesport Silver Trophy, but his time was simply average for the class, so I can't recommend following him.

We're starting to see fast times on the AW again as the better performers start to gear up for the better races in the winter. MOAYED (37) certainly fits into this category. He won for the fifth time in his last eight starts on the sand over a mile or less when taking a good sprint handicap at Lingfield. He ought to be able to win again soon.