TURPIN GREEN IS TOP CLASS

A few years ago Gordon Richards trained a brilliant young horse called Noddy's Ryde whose career was tragically cut short. Now his son Nicky has a chaser that might just be as good in TURPIN GREEN (40).

Turpin Green ran about as fast as a novice chaser can go on its first outing over fences when beating the very smart REBEL RHYTHM (39) at Carlisle. He looks to have any amount of potential and must have a major chance of taking one of the big Grade 1 races for first season chasers this term.

Seeing how fast he ran here, one now has to wonder just how Turpin Green has managed to lose two of his six races to date. It's interesting to note that both the losses were at Haydock where he jumped poorly each time. It could be he wasn't suited to the unusual French-style hurdles used by the track. In any event I wouldn't care to oppose him over fences right now. He could easily prove Gold Cup class.

Rebel Rhythm was always going to be better over fences and showed just how good he is over the bigger jumps by pulling 27 lengths clear of the third. He and the winner kept challenging each other throughout the race - something only top class horses can do. He too ought to win something big this winter and looks a great prospect.

MADE IN JAPAN OUGHT TO WIN SOON

MADE IN JAPAN (39) earned a big speed rating for the second time in a row when chasing home TOWN CRIER (40) in a valuable two mile handicap chase at Newbury last Saturday. It seems likely to me that he's improved with age this season and is now a very useful chaser. I can see him winning a big handicap in his own right soon.

Town Crier is best at the minimum trip and doesn't get home as well in soft ground according to his trainer. Now that he's racing at the right sort of class level I suspect he's going to have trouble lasting home at stiff tracks such as Cheltenham too. Quite probably the short distance here on a dead flat track on lightning fast ground suited him perfectly. He's smart. But I wouldn't bet on him winning again until these conditions are replicated. The runner-up looks a more likely winner in the near future.

TRABOLGAN STILL NOT CONVINCING

I knocked Trabolgan (38) after his win in the Sun Alliance Chase. And I'm afraid I'm going to knock him again following his win in the Hennessy for exactly the same reason: He just didn't run very fast at all.

A Gold Cup Class horse would have run about three seconds faster than Trabolgan managed at Newbury. So I see no reason to suddenly start thinking of him as a candidate for Cheltenham in March or Kempton this month. He beat the same three horses that followed him home in the Sun Alliance and he again beat them in relatively slow time.

RED SPELL CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER

I gave RED SPELL (40) a write up here recently after he broke the seven furlong course record on Lingfield's Polytrack. Now he's gone an lowered the best time for a mile and earned an even bigger speed rating from me.

In the old days when a horse kept running as fast as Red Spell has on the AW it would basically be handicapped out of the game. You would then see it sold to race in America or aimed at grass races. In the coming year however we are going to see a whole lot more high class races run on the AW in Britain. So red Spell ought to be able to stick to his favoured surface and win in pattern company.

Runner-up PSYCHIATRIST (39) is also worth following on the AW. He earned a Group class speed rating from me when chasing the smart Vortex home on the Polytrack in April and did so again here. All he has to do is avoid his stablemate Red Spell and he should win soon.

WISE OWL SHOULD WIN AGAIN

WISE OWL (37) bolted up by five lengths in fast time on his AW debut and is clearly a smart horse on the surface. His trainer says he plans to run him over hurdles sometime in the coming months but only on fast ground. Polytrack is very much like racing on fast turf and Wise Owl also won the only time he raced on ground that was officially firm. So his trainer's plan clearly has solid foundations. Meanwhile though there are two or three more races to be won with Wise Owl on the Polytrack. The clock says he's way better than the class he's currently eligible to race in.

ALL THE GOOD A NAME TO REMEMBER

A couple of years ago a two year old trained by Gerard Butler called Shield set a new juvenile course record for ten furlongs on Lingfield's Polytrack when winning a hot looking maiden. Shield won the Group 3 Classic trial at Sandown next time out.

Last week another Gerard Butler trained two year old lowered Shield's course record when taking a strong-looking maiden at Lingfield. The two year old in question is ALL THE GOOD (34), and he looks worth following.

I concede that a speed rating of 34 is barely pattern class for a two year old. But few ratings this high are earned by juveniles over ten furlongs. So I suspect All The Good is going to prove competitive in pattern company just like Shield was.

Runner-up PIGEON ISLAND (33) ran a huge race on his racecourse debut and looks nailed on to win next time out.

DARKNESS WIN WAS LEGIT

A lot of the discussion after the Grade 2 Unicoin Homes Novice Chase at Newbury understandably focused on the defeat of Stayer's Hurdle winner IRIS'S GIFT (35). As a result the merit of the winner DARKNESS (39) was called into question. In fact the clock suggests that Iris's Gift didn't run that much below form and that Darkness is actually a seriously good novice chaser.

It would be easy to over-analyze the form of Darkness at this point. But I think it's worth bearing in mind that he's bred for chasing and his only loss over the bigger jumps in three tries came over a totally inadequate two miles. Here over three miles he showed that he's one of the best novice chasers around.

I'm not as concerned as others seem to be by the defeat of Iris's Gift. He clearly needs to jump better, but so do most novice chasers. If he hadn't made a mess of a few fences he would have earned a pattern class speed rating over fences for the third time here. I've awarded him speed ratings as high as 38 over the bigger jumps, and that's not far off his hurdles form. I still see him making the grade over fences and having a major chance of winning in Grade 1 company.

KALOU SHOULD WIN AGAIN

When a horse wins just once in a sequence of 41 races once can be excused for thinking it's slow. But KALOU (38) certainly isn't slow judged by his recent win at Musselburgh where he equaled the fastest time run in a two mile chase at the Scottish track in the last decade.

Don't ask me why Kalou jumped up and improved. I haven't a clue. But he beat the useful LOULOU NIVERNAIS (37) into second place, and that's a horse that's run fast enough to earn a recent write up from me here.

Kalou had pattern form on the flat in Germany. So I can only assume that for some reason he is now back to his very best. This being so he looks well worth following as he's still eligible for races well below his true class, as is the runner up.

I'M NOT CONVINCED BY KINGSCLIFF

KINGSCLIFF (41) caused something of a sensation by beating KICKING KING (38) in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. But it turned out that Kicking King twisted a shoe and returned sore, so his sub-par performance can be ignored. I rated the race on the basis of the fastest previous time Kingscliff has ever run before and the fastest the runner-up BEEF OR SALMON (41) has run in the last year. This makes the performance of the winner look some way off what's required to take the Gold Cup.

Useful as Kingscliff is, it's hard to get away from the fact that this was his first win in graded company in five tries - and that it was achieved thanks to problems experienced by Kicking King. I find it hard to believe that Kingscliff will prove good enough for the Gold Cup in March - even assuming this notoriously hard to train horse makes it to the race.

It seems to me that runner-up Beef or Salmon has lost a step or two with age. This was the third time in his last four starts that he's lost in circumstances where he'd previously won virtually every time.

IMPEK RAN VERY FAST

When a horse suddenly starts doing things it's never done before you have to be wary about being too dogmatic in your opinions about it. Circumstances have clearly changed and the horse could easily make you look a fool. This is the case with IMPEK (43) who took the Peterborough Chase in seriously fast time last weekend.

Previously I had thought that Impek needed to be fresh in order to run his best because he's a nervous horse that frets after he's had a race. I'd also thought that he was best going right-handed and preferred a small field. Indeed his trainer Henrietta Knight has said as much in the past. Now though Impek is turning everything on its head. Last time out he won going left-handed. And last week he won in a big field without having had a break since his last run. He also ran faster than he's ever run before.

It looks like a switch to front-running tactics has improved Impek. Front running is also probably what helped him win against a much bigger field than he's ever previously beaten over fences. Now he goes for the King George, and I'm not going to say he won't stay, as he won over the course and distance in December 2003. But I rather doubt he can win as he won't have a prayer of getting into the lead with tearaway Kario de Sormain (see below) in the line up. Nonetheless, after the King George, I'd still be very interested in Impek. He ran awfully fast here.

MONKERHOSTIN (41) ran a bit below his best to chase Impek home but still earned yet another good speed rating. I'm beginning to wonder whether he might benefit from a slight step up in distance. After all he's now won four of the five times he's run 2 miles, 5 furlongs or more and finished second in his sole loss at a longer trip.

I remain convinced that third-placed THISTHATANDTOTHER (40) is essentially a three mile chaser. And his strong finish confirmed that view. I reckon he's only effective at shorter trips on tracks with a stiff uphill finish. We should get a chance to test my theory next time out as he's due to step back up to three miles for the King George.

SCOTS GREY LOOKS INTERESTING ON HENNESSY CARD

SCOTS GREY (39) ran seriously fast when running away with a 2m 5f handicap chase at Wincanton. And, looking at his record, I suspect he's suited to kind of small field he met there. So far Scots Grey has run in seven chases with eight runners or less and has placed every time - winning all four times he's run in small fields below pattern class.

Trainer Nicky Henderson told reporters after the race that Scots Grey's next target would be the two and a half mile chase at Newbury's Hennessy meeting. If the field is small enough there I'd give him a great chance of following up this win.

LORD KILLESHANRA IS A DECENT NOVICE CHASER

LORD KILLESHANRA (36) had the dubious distinction of finishing second in seven of his first twelve starts without winning. But he's bred for chasing and has improved since switching to the bigger jumps two starts back. Last week he won a good novice chase at Exeter in decent time, showing himself to be one of the better first season chasers we've seen so far at three miles. How good he is only time will tell. All I can say is that right now I'd think twice before opposing him in any novice chase over three miles. He might even be good enough to at least place in the Feltham Novice's Chase at Christmas.

GARDASEE FAST FOR A JUVENILE

Juvenile hurdlers are usually about three lengths a mile behind novice hurdlers. So GARDASEE (35) actually ran a pattern class time when bolting up by 30 lengths at Hexham.

I'd be wary of opposing this one against his own age group. He really could be anything and has already run fast enough to be ranked as a Triumph Hurdle prospect.

RED SPELL LOWERS TRACK RECORD AT LINGFIELD

RED SPELL (39) broke the 7f track record, both for the Polytrack and the old Equitrack when scoring at Lingfield. He's clearly one of the best horse currently racing on the AW and will he hard to beat if he takes up his engagement at Lingfield this coming Saturday.

Runner-up KING'S CAPRICE (38) also ran fast and will surely win soon.

BOLD BISHOP RUNS BIG

BOLD BISHOP (41) ran a time that puts him within hailing distance of the very best two mile chasers when taking a hot handicap at Cheltenham's Open meeting. I know that his trainer, Jonjo O'Neill, regards him as a 'soft' horse that is apt to down tools under pressure. But I wonder whether he might not be biased against horses like Bold Bishop.

When Jonjo was a jockey he was the strongest finisher in the business, being renowned as a rider who would make up a horse's mind for it at the business end of a race. For Bold Bishop's last four outings Jonjo has employed two jockeys in a similar mould - Tony McCoy and Tony Dobbin. These two riders win a higher percentage of the time in tight finishes than any of the other top jump jockeys according to a survey I carried out a couple of years ago. But they've been unable to get Bold Bishop to win. When the horse has had other riders aboard he has won four of the last six times he's run over less than two and a half miles.

I rather suspect that Bold Bishop prefers to be kidded along rather than rousted in the closing stages. With the right sort of jockey aboard I'd say he has a real chance of winning at Cheltenham in March, whether he goes for the Arkle or The Grand Annual.

Runner-up TIGER CRY (40) earned a write up from me when winning a Fairyhouse novice chase in unusually fast time. He ran even quicker here and now rates as one of the best novice chasers on my ratings.

LINGO IS NOT THAT FAR OFF CHAMPION CLASS

LINGO (40) clocked a fast time to win the big handicap hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting, beating a strong field in the process. He'd won a Grade 1 novice hurdle on his previous start and this run suggests that it's perfectly possible he'll be competitive in Grade 1 company against more experienced rivals. He's got ten lengths to make up on Hardy Eustace on my ratings but only four or five on the other top hurdlers.

INNOX STAYS WELL

Before he won a valuable Grade 3 Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting, the closest INNOX (39) had come to big race success was when an unlucky third in the 2002 Prix la Haye Jousselin ('the French King George'). The Prix la Haye Jousselin, like the big race Innox won last week, is run over three miles, three and a half furlongs. Clearly the old boy is best over a longer trip. In fact, but for jumping errors he might well have won four of the five times he's gone three and a quarter miles or more when there's been a bit of cut in the ground. This being so I'm not going to knock his chances of taking the Grand National at the second attempt next April, especially if the going comes up soft.

JAKE BLACK JUST KEEPS RUNNING FASTER

JAKE BLACK (40) is a horse I just don't understand. I see no obvious pattern to his form at all. But I have to concede he keeps on winning, and he keeps on running faster. Last week-end he ran away with a good handicap hurdle at Wetherby in a time that would give him a real shot of taking something like the Imperial Cup, Tote Gold Trophy or County Hurdle.

Jake Black won his latest outing off a five week break and is apparently going to be rested for a similar period before his next start around Christmas. I shall await the event with some interest, especially if he's put into a more valuable contest. I can see him continuing his winning ways in better company.

DARK'N SHARP IS BACK

Some winners are easy to see in hindsight. And I have to admit I'm kicking myself for not spotting DARK'N SHARP (37) before he won the Macer Gifford Memorial Chase at 14-1. After all he had won and placed in better races and there was no obvious signs that he'd 'gone'. He'd run big every previous time he'd completed the course over fences in a race of less than three miles.

Interestingly, the official handicapper seems to have made the same mistake I did because he allowed Dark'N Sharp's official rating to slide by nearly 20 points before this race. This means that the horse is still eligible for races well below his true class and has every chance of winning again soon.

LOULOU NIVERNAIS CAN WIN AGAIN

Back in September LOULOU NIVERNAIS (37) ran freakishly fast for a class F winner when winning a minor chase at Uttoxeter. He repeated the feat when running away with a class E chase at Sedgefield. Obviously he is likely to win again as his official rating understates his ability by a huge margin. But I'm not so sure he's going to win right away. My read of his form is that Loulou Nivernais is best fresh. His Uttoxeter win was his second start following a two month lay-off, and his latest big effort followed a break of nearly six weeks.

KIPSIGIS IS A PROMISING RECRUIT

KIPSIGIS (37) won in unusually fast time on his hurdling debut at Fontwell. He jumped well and looks a promising recruit to the winter game. On the clock he ought to be competitive in pattern company and should certainly win again soon.

Runner-up HIBERNIAN (36) had some decent bumper form and ran a big race to pull a dozen lengths clear of the third. I very much doubt that he'll remain a maiden for long.

CIMYLA IS VERY SMART

CIMYLA (40) ran seriously fast to win a hot Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton. He's capable of winning pretty much anything on the AW right now if my ratings are any guide. In fact he's very useful on both grass and sand - except it seems at Newmarket. Cimyla's four worst lifetime starts have coincided with his four runs at Newmarket. On other courses he has won or run a pattern class time in defeat seven times out of eight.

DON'T UNDER-RATE ACTUALITY

The good three year olds have almost all worked their way out of maiden company by this time of year. But clearly there are still a few around as ACTUALITY (36) proved when winning a Wolverhampton maiden by five lengths in fast time.

Seeing that everything in the race was officially rated 70 or lower it looks like Actuality is going to be eligible for pretty ordinary handicaps after this win. That being so I'd say he's a horse to follow as I rate him capable of winning a good class C or B contest.

DOES MONKERHOSTIN NEED JOHNSON?

I confess that I am now struggling to understand MONKERHOSTIN (44) following his win in the Haldon Gold Cup last week. Previously I'd thought he was best at longer distances than the two miles, one and a half furlongs of the Exeter race. But he defied my expectations by beating a seriously strong field while earning a speed rating that equaled the best I'd previously given him.

Now I'm starting to wonder whether Monkerhostin is a difficult ride that needs the horsemanship of Richard Johnson to perform to his best. After all, if you restrict your attention to races of class C and up you'll find that Monkerhostin has won six times out of ten for Richard Johnson but blanked on all 17 runs when he's had with other jockeys aboard.

Monkerhostin has now twice earned huge speed ratings from me that would give him a real chance against any chaser in training. I await his next run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup with great interest.

Runner-up KAUTO STAR (42) ran a huge race for an ex-novice taking on experienced top class chasers for the first time. Novice chasers invariably jump a bit slower and very rarely win the first time they step out of novice company to take on high class rivals like this (even Arkle lost the first time he tackled the more experienced Mill House).

This was the second occasion in three chase starts that Kauto Star has earned a Grade 1 speed rating from me. I suspect he would have earned a third had he not tipped up when clear on his second outing over fences. His connections are convinced he needed this run too, so there's every hope that he's going to prove an able deputy for Azertyuiop in the top two mile chases.

ASHLEY BROOK (38) was also having his first run against experienced chasers and did well to run a good third. He got outpaced at a crucial point and this seemed to confirm the view of many observers, including his rider, that he's going to prove best over longer distances this term.

IRIS BLEU COMES RIGHT

IRSI BLEU (41) ran amazingly fast in France back in 2000 and has run a few spectacularly good races in Britain since. But his form has been decidedly spotty. It could be that he needs a lengthy lay-off to run to his best and that this is why he won the Badger Ales Trophy in terrific time on his seasonal debut. On the other hand it could well be that he has finally been patched up after his injuries and is now ready to fulfill all the potential he's shown in the past.

What gives me hope that the Iris Bleu is likely to repeat this form is the fact that it was the fastest performance he's ever put up. He defeated a strong field in very fast time and looks a worth candidate for the Hennessy just as his trainer Martin Pipe suggested after the race.

Runner-up RED DEVIL ROBERT (40) ran a very fast time to take a hot little handicap chase at Newbury last season and ran even faster here. My speed ratings suggest that his connections are wrong to doubt the horse's stamina, despite the fact that he was cruising until seeming to tire late. He just came up against a very smart rival here and deserves a shot at the Hennessy.

Third placed WINDSOR BOY (36) is also worth noting. He had won the three previous times he'd run beyond two and a quarter miles and looks a useful recruit for the Pipe stable. Indeed I'll be keeping a careful eye on Windsor Boy next time out. I suspect he's going to be winning something decent for his new handler very soon.

DOUBLE HONOUR (36) ran a big race on his seasonal debut to finish fourth over a trip a bit on the short side for him these days. Over slightly longer on a more galloping track in the Becher Chase next time he will be an interesting candidate.

MISS MATTIE ROSS CAN WIN AGAIN

MISS MATTIE ROSS (36) ran an unusually fast time for a low class handicap chase at Kelso when bolting up by nine lengths. She has a a terrific record at Kelso but that's probably because she runs at what is her local track so often.

My ratings say that Miss Mattie Ross can win better races than this and that her official handicap mark seriously under-states her ability.

LUSTRAL DU SEUIL SHOULD WIN SOON

WITHOUT A DOUBT (36) clocked a good time to win on his chasing debut at Sandown. He and the runner-up LUSTRAL DU SEUIL (36) pulled well clear of the field to fight out the finish. Both look promising recruits to the bigger fences, though I suspect it is Lustral du Seuil that is going to progress the most of the pair, seeing that he ran so close despite jumping errors here.

DON'T GO OVERBOARD ABOUT CELTIC SON

Celtic Son earned rave reviews for his win in the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices Chase at Wincanton and a short-priced quote for the Sun Alliance Chase. But I remain to be convinced that he's that good a prospect. Several novice chasers have already run as fast or faster in lower grade contests this term. And, although I know this sounds contrary, I don't like the fact that he was reported to have jumped well.

I prefer to see novice chasers make mistakes at their fences and learn from them while still running fast. I'm always concerned about those that jump well on the grounds that they may actually be being over-cautious at the obstacles. This makes them look good against inferior rivals but costs them ground against faster ones.

TAU CETI IS A STAR

I figured that all I had to do to get the winner of the James Seymour Stakes at Newmarket was to pick between ECOMIUM (41) and Into The Dark (37). Both these four year olds had earned Group 1 class speed ratings in the past and looked likely to outclass the field if running up to their best. But TAU CETI (42) managed to beat them both, and he ran a huge time in the process.

Tau Ceti was coming into the race off a break of two years. Previously he had won a Group 3 and placed in a Group 1. The clock suggests that he's actually improved, so it's a damn shame he's set to be bundled off to stud. He could win something like the Hong Kong Vase on this run.

Ecomium finally seems to be over the training troubles that have blighted his career till now. He earned a borderline Group 1 class speed rating from me for the second time here and still looks to have tremendous potential. I can see him winning a really big race sometime in the next year.

BORDER MUSIC LOOKS UNSTOPPABLE ON POLYTRACK

BORDER MUSIC (40) earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me when bolting up in a hot class 2 handicap at Lingfield. He followed up with another win on the Polytrack three days later and clearly much prefers the artificial surface to grass. In fact he's won four of the six times he's run on it yet lost all 18 of his turf starts.

In the long run connections apparently plan to take Border Music to America to exploit the greater opportunities available to him over there. meanwhile if he runs in any more races on the Polytrack over here I'd be wary of opposing him.

ZERO TOLERANCE IS GROUP CLASS IN MUD

ZERO TOLERANCE (39) earned a Group class speed rating from me for the second time when taking a very good class 2 handicap at Newmarket. This was the third time he's won in soft ground from four tries. If he can somehow be found a big handicap run on soft ground next year he'll have a great chance of winning it. If he were mine I'd be aiming him at the remaining Listed and Group 3 races run abroad this term. My ratings say he'd win one if he got his ground.

I'M STILL NOT CONVINCED BY INGLIS DREVER

INGLIS DREVER (42) duly won his seasonal debut in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby. But yet again he earned a speed rating from me that was only just Grade 1 class. He's hit speed ratings of 41 and 42 several times now but has yet to run faster. I suspect this is as good as he is and that a seriously high class staying hurdler would brush him aside with little difficulty. Having said that I have to concede that most of the horses that might be smart in long distance hurdles tend to be switched to chasing. So it could be that Inglis Drever will once again be able to win a string of races this winter. I hope not and plan to look hard for something to beat him.