SCHIEHALLION A GREAT PROSPECT FOR FESTIVAL BUMPER

The Cheltenham Festival Bumper is normally one race that the Irish can count on winning at the Cheltenham Festival. This is hardly surprising. Bumper races form a much bigger part of the racing calendar in Ireland than in Britain. This season however the home team do have at least one excellent candidate for the big race in SCHIEHALLION (39).

Schiehallion earned the biggest speed rating I've given a bumper runner outside of the Festival Bumper itself in years when scoring on his racecourse debut at Newbury. Clearly he is a very smart recruit, and if he can act on fast ground as well as his two winning siblings then he'll have a serious chance come March.

Runner-up JASS (36) had won two of his three previous races and finished third to the very smart Alfie Flits in the other one. Yet he trailed Schiehallion by five lengths at the finish. He is now to go hurdling and must have a great chance of scoring first time over timber.

KING IS RIGHT TO KEEP MY WAY DE SOLZEN TO TWO MILES

The fences are Lingfield have claimed the fourth highest percentage of fallers of all chase tracks in Britain. And they're particularly hard for a chasing debutante to negotiate. 43% of horses running over fences for the first time at Lingfield have failed to compete in the last ten years. But try telling that to MY WAY DE SOLZEN (40). The World Hurdle winner jumped like an old hand to score by a street on his chasing debut, earning a speed figure close to the best he managed over hurdles.

In fact My Way De Solzen ran as fast as most Arkle winners here. So I think trainer Alan King is right to keep him to two miles. Horses frequently change their distance preferences completely when they switch from hurdles to fences or vice versa. And it's clear My Way De Solzen is going to be competitive with any novice chaser at the minimum distance. In fact I'd rather fancy his chances against more experienced chasers in top races on this run. Going that route might be a shrewd move too seeing that there are a freakishly large number of very fast novice chasers in Britain this term while the two mile chasing division for the experienced jumpers is looking a bit thin on talent right now.

KILLAGHY CASTLE IMPROVES OVER FENCES

Trainer Nick Gifford always said KILLAGHY CASTLE (40) was going to be better over fences. And the horse proved him right when winning a red hot novice chase at Lingfield in seriously fast time. He'd previously finished only second in two maiden point to points over three miles. So, seeing that he ran so fast over just 2m 1f here, I think we should listen to Gifford when he says he won't be running Killaghy Castle in the Sun Alliance Chase. Clearly he thinks the horse is better over shorter.

Reading Gifford's comments it seems that he reckons Killaghy Castle is going to prove best at around two and a half miles and will only be effective at two miles on a galloping track when there's a bit of cut in the ground as there was here. Nobody knows the horse better than him so I'm happy to trust his judgment.

The Arkle is normally run on fast ground, so the obvious target for Killaghy Castle just has to be the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase over two and a half miles at Sandown in February. It will take a smart horse to beat him there.

Runner-up BRIAREUS (39) ran a huge race on his chasing debut. His trainer says he will come on for the run which makes sense seeing that he's such a big horse. Logicaly you'd think he would have a better chance in the Arkle than the winner. But all of the wins scored by Briareus have been on dead flat tracks. I'd need to see good evidence that he can handle undulations and an uphill finish before betting him at Cheltenham. Aintree would be more his cup of tea I would think.

STATE OF PLAY PROBABLY NOT A GOLD CUP HORSE

If you look at the stats for the Hennessy you'll find that nine of the last eleven winners before 2006 had these two things in common;

* They'd run in no more than 13 chases and won more than a third of them.

* They had beaten non-novice rivals in a class 2 or higher grade chase.

In this year's line up there was just a single horse that matched the above profile. The horse in question was STATE OF PLAY (41) who duly won the race rather impressively.

Now we have to decide if State Of Play is good enough to win big Grade 1 conditions chases like the Gold Cup. And it's not easy. The horse has only lost once over fences and could still be anything.

However there are a couple of things which persuade me that State Of Play is not going to be quite good enough to win at the very top level. The first is that he earned the same speed rating from me in the Hennessy as he did when romping home at the Aintree Festival. Both runs were very good Grade 2 times, not quite Grade 1. And the fact he's hit the same number twice inclines me to believe it marks the limit of his abilities.

The second thing which makes me think State Of Play is unlikely to prove a Gold Cup horse is that he's not that big. Horses which win the very top chases invariably have more size and substance to them than State Of Play. Indeed the fact that State Of Play doesn't may well explain why his record suggests he's best when fresh.

Whether State Of Play will 'bounce' off this run, that is regress due to the physical effects of a very fast race, I can't say for sure. But I'd be inclined to bet that he will if he's brought back for the King George or more likely the Welsh National around Christmas. In the long run I see him winning more big handicap chases when there's cut in the ground and he's been freshened up with another break as he has before his two big wins to date.

Runner-up JUVEIGNEUR (40) does nothing but stay. Give him a field that's big enough to develop a strong pace and some cut in the ground or a stiff track and he'll always run a big race - except unfortunately at Aintree - a track his trainer plans to avoid with him in future. No doubt Juveigneur will be made to look slow in small fields and on fast ground in future. But when he hits another race like this he'll be dangerous.

BOYCHUCK DOES IT AGAIN

No novice chaser has earned more big speed ratings from me than BOYCHUK (39). He did it again when running fast to take a good three mile novice chase at Newbury. But now comes the real test. Will Boychuk be able to show the same level of form in the colder months? His record indicates that he may well be one of those horses that is best in the Spring and Autumn. So I'll be inclined to oppose him in the Feltham Novices' Chase next time out. If he proves me wrong there then he'll be an obvious candidate for the Sun Alliance Chase. If he flops I'd bet on him bouncing back to form in April or May.

Runner-up GUNGADU (39) looks a better proposition for the Feltham Novices' Chase to me. He jumped slightly right again here and, despite what his trainer says, I'm still inclined to believe he's better going that way around. Why else did he run such a clunker at Aintree the only time he was asked to run around a tight left-handed course?

PRIORS DALE WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT IN THE WAYWARD LAD

PRIORS DALE (38) joined the ever expanding legion of fast novice chasers in Britain when winning a two mile novice chase at Kempton in pattern class time. It's early to say for sure what suits him best. But my best guess would be that he's most effective at two miles and may not even get that far on tracks with steep uphill finishes. It could also be he's best fresh. So, all in all, it seems a smart move to lay him off for five weeks and bring him back over the same course and distance for the Wayward Lad novice's chase at Christmas. He should be tough to beat there.

AFSOUN CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER

AFSOUN (38) streaked home in a Listed hurdle at Newbury in a time that suggests he's capable of winning a Grade 3 at least. He's actually a very smart and consistent horse. What disguises his good form is the fact that last season he was competing against what I rated the best crop of juvenile hurdlers we've seen in decades. They were a freakishly strong group, and if Afsoun had been able to avoid some of the best ones, as he would in a normal season, he might well have been winning for the seventh time in a row here. He's clearly matured and improved a bit this season.

KARANJA IS USEFUL

KARANJA (38) won a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier in Grade 3 class time at Newbury. He probably needed his seasonal debut when fourth to the smart Star De Mohaison. He would have won six of the other seven times he's run on yielding or softer ground but for one unlucky head defeat. Long term he's obviously a good chasing prospect, but right now he's going to be pretty hard to beat in any staying hurdle when there's a bit of cut in the ground.

Similar comments apply to the three quarters of a length second OSCAR PARK (38) except that he appears happy on faster ground.

NEPTUNES COLLONGES CAN DO BETTER

NEPTUNES COLLONGES (37) ran well below his best but still managed to take the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle under a big weight. It could be the ground was a bit fast for him. More likely he was still suffering from the effects of running second on heavy ground in that freakishly fast race won by Our Vic last time out.

Neptunes Collonges is one of the best three mile chasers around according to my ratings, and I've long suspected he wouldn't need soft ground to be effective over fences. He went some way towards proving that here and thereby established himself as a bona fide contender for the Gold Cup.

STRAW BEAR IS OVER-RATED

Straw Bear (39) earned rave reviews for his win in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. But as i see it the race was a Grade 1 in name only. He only ran a good Grade 3 time. And the 12 year old The French Furze, who has won just one of his 37 starts in pattern company, and is deteriorating according to my speed ratings, managed to finish a relatively close third.

True, Straw Bear is smart on slow ground. In fact he's now won all seven times he's run on what I rate soft or heavy ground or on Fibresand. But he's lost all nine times he's run on faster going. So the idea of him winning the Champion Hurdle which is invariably run on fast ground looks somewhat fanciful.

SPEEDY SAM ONE OF THE TOP AW HORSES

SPEEDY SAM (40) established himself as one of the top AW horses when winning a red hot ten furlong handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack. He'd run second on the Poly to Cimyla, another of the very best AW runners, four days before. But this was an improved performance. He rates as a solid prospect for the Winter Derby on this run.

Alpine Reel (38) earned yet another pattern class speed rating by finishing second. However I doubt we'll get rich by following him. For me the horse to take out of the race is third placed BAHAR SHUMAAL (37). He earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse on the AW in years three runs back. Unfortunately he doesn't seem to appreciate the slow early pace that so often prevails on the Polytrack and pulled too hard for his own good, just as he'd done last time out. If he were mine I'd ship Bahar Sumaal over to America or perhaps Dubai where he'd appreciate the stronger pace of races run on real dirt. From a betting point of view though I rather hope he remains in Britain as he'll probably continue to look bad due to the slow early pace of Polytrack races. I can see him being a terrific bet in the Winter Derby as that is one of the few Polytrack races where a strong early pace looks likely thanks to the big field and competitiveness of the event.

MARKET WATCHER GETS INTERESTING

MARKET WATCHER (37) won a two mile handicap on the All Weather in Listed class time. Clearly he's improved markedly recently as he'd won his previous start over hurdles as well.

If Market Watcher can show this sort of form over hurdles back in Ireland then he should be able to win several more times in the near future whether he sticks to handicap company or moves back into the novice ranks.

BOMBER COMMAND HAS FOUND HIS DISTANCE

BOMBER COMMAND (38) won a seven furlong handicap on Kempton's Polytrack in Group class time and is clearly very smart over the distance. In fact he might well have won the last three times he's gone seven furlongs on Polytrack if he hadn't been forced to snatch up when losing narrowly on his previous outing. I'd bet on him going in again over seven furlongs on the Poly before long.

NOT NOW KAUTO

Most observers seem to have been amazed with the manner in which Kauto Star (40) won the Betfair Chase at Haydock. What amazed me was the time of 6m 9.9 seconds. This is little more than eight seconds slower than the course record and a mere six seconds slower than Jodami's old record which stood for years. And it means the going on the chase course was not soft or even good to soft as had looked so likely. It was actually good.

For anyone who has studied the runner-up BEEF OR SALMON (34) or listened to his trainer Michael Hourigan the result of the Betfair Chase must immediately look suspect. Beef Or Salmon is brilliant but now needs ground that is at least two seconds a mile slower than it was at Haydock to run anywhere near his best. That's why Hourigan was voicing concerns about the going before the race. The fact that Beef Or Salmon was nonetheless able to run second doesn't say much for the rest of the field.

Francois Doumen, the trainer of third-placed L'Ami (34) admitted after the race that his horse was "only a handicapper" (something my speed ratings have said all along). Fourth placed Ollie Magern (33) had been beaten more than 30 lengths in each of his last six starts yet got to within 20 lengths of the winner here. Iris's Gift (15) surely had some sort of a problem. And Kingscliff almost certainly 'bounced' just as his trainer feared he would due to the effects of running on heavy ground in that freakishly fast race won by Our Vic. Sir Rembrandt and Take The Stand also threw in clunkers after running in that race, and Kingscliff has now done so following his last four fast run races.

What I'm saying is that Kauto Star didn't beat much. And the clock says he certainly didn't run that fast either. I'm sure of this because there were two race meetings at Haydock in the previous month. At both of them the hurdles course rode almost exactly the same speed it did on Saturday judged by race times. And each time the chase course rode precisely two seconds a mile faster. My calculations say this is what happened again on Saturday. And it means Kauto Star only ran fast enough to win a good Grade 3 or a weak Grade 2.

Horses can look awfully impressive when they're completely unchallenged. They can do things that they'd never normally be able to do. And in such circumstances they will invariably earn the biggest speed rating that they're capable of over the distance. Yet the rating Kauto Star earned here was six to twelve lengths slower over three miles than those routinely run by genuine three milers such as Kicking King, War Of Attrition, Our Vic, Mid Dancer, Princesse D'Anjou, Beef Or Salmon and Neptunes Collonges.

As I see it the horse to take out of the race isn't Kauto Star, it's Beef or Salmon. If Hourigan's charge runs in the Gold Cup he will almost certainly encounter a field that's too big or ground that's too fast and lose for the eighth time in eight British starts, fuelling the widespread belief that he can't travel. But the fact is he's run just as well in big fields and on faster ground in Britain as he has in Ireland. And on genuinely yielding ground in fields of eight or less he is a near unstoppable force wherever he runs. Toss out a couple of outings where he was sick and races on faster than yielding in the last two years and you'll find he's won all of the other twelve times he's gone over fences in fields of eight or less. He's beaten Best Mate, War Of Attrition and Kicking King into second fair and square in his favoured circumstances. And my long term hope is that it comes up soft at Aintree for the Betfair Bowl in April, a field of eight or less starts and it includes several of the top chasers. I can see Beef Or Salmon going off at 6-1 or better, and I reckon he'd be a cert.

As for Kauto Star, I don't rate him anywhere near as fast as most now seem to suppose, and he's almost certainly better over two and a half miles than three. So when it comes to the King George I think you should log on to Betfair or Betdaq and take your cue from the inscription at the base of the statue of Liberty; "Send me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free. But especially send me thousands of suckers who want to bet Kauto Star at 6-4 and shorter."

HARDY EUSTACE AS GOOD AS EVER - BUT DOES HE NOW NEED LONGER?

HARDY EUSTACE (43) ran as fast as he ever has to win the Ascot Hurdle from some of the best staying hurdlers. But I have to say that I'm beginning to wonder whether he now needs the two and a half miles to produce his best form.

Hardy Eustace's strong suit has always been stamina. And, as I've pointed out before, he has a tremendous record in big fields because they tend to generate the strong early pace he needs. It's interesting to note though that his Champion Hurdle loss in the Spring was his first defeat in a hurdle with ten runners or more. In addition his trainer Dessie Hughes is now talking about running him over two and a half miles again next time out in the Hatton's Grace. Could it be that like many national hunt performers he's lost a bit of his speed with age? It happens to the best of them, even Desert Orchid who started off as a two mile star but found the trip too short in his last couple of seasons.

HUGE RUN BY RACING DEMON

RACING DEMON (43) ran a huge race to take the Peterborough Chase in sensationally fast time. I've no doubt that he will stay three miles and is going to prove one of the very best chasers over that distance in the next few years. However I have grave reservations about him winning the King George due to his inexperience.

Very few horses manage to win the first time they go three miles against Gold Cup horses. Even Arkle lost the first time he ran against Mill House. While Racing Demon's former stablemate Best Mate only ran second when he stepped up to three miles to tackle the King George five years ago.

I see Racing Demon as a great prospect for the Gold Cup. But the King George will be the first time he's gone three miles and the first time he's tackled a Grade 1 against experienced rivals.

CEDRUS LIBANI LOOKS CHELTENHAM CLASS

CEDRUS LIBANI (38) ploughed through what my going allowance said was heavy ground to win over the very stiff course at Hexham on only his second lifetime start. Clearly he's a useful recruit and should do well over fences and longer distances in future. Right now he is one of the fastest novice hurdlers around according to my speed ratings.

It might well be that Cedrus Libani will need much longer than the two miles he ran over here to be effective on faster ground and on easier courses. But this run makes him look Cheltenham class and he should be well worth following.

IRON MAN SHOULD WIN AGAIN

I confess that I just don't understand IRON MAN (38). All I can tell you is that he ran a Grade 3 class time when winning a handicap chase at Market Rasen the other day and looks remarkably well handicapped. It could be that the longer distances he's been running have improved him or the switch to a new stable. Whatever it is he should be able to win again soon.

DREAM ALLIANCE YET ANOTHER SMART NOVICE CHASER

Last flat season there were a ludicrously large number of fast middle distance three year old colts in France. This jumps season it is Britain that is heavily overstocked in one department. The department in question is novice chasers, particularly the three mile variety such as DREAM ALLIANCE (38) who won in a time that fully justifies his addition to the Cheltenham Festival betting on his chasing debut at Exeter.

At the last Cheltenham Festival Dream Alliance got badly outpaced on the fast ground and then lost his place badly on the down hill run but stayed on strongly up the final hill to finish sixth of 19 to Black Jack Ketchum. His record to date suggests a preference for cut in the ground. He probably needed his seasonal debut but would probably be unbeaten in four other tries on such going at 2m 4f plus but for tipping up once at Bangor. In a normal season I'd say he was a great prospect. But this term he's probably going to need his ideal conditions to win a Graded novice chase.

RASHARROW HARD TO BEAT ON EASY TRACKS

RASHARROW (39) became the umpteenth UK novice chaser to win in fast time this season when scoring at Kelso. But he's different from the others in that he seems best at around two miles. In fact stamina does seem to be a big issue with him as his trainer says he prefers faster ground. And his record shows no wins in four tries on tracks with steep uphill finishes and six wins out of six elsewhere.

Maybe on fast ground Rasharrow will run as well in the Arkle as he did in the Festival Bumper where he finished third. But basically I'd be expecting him to score his biggest success this term on an easier course like Aintree. On such a course on fast ground at the minimum distance I'd be wary of opposing him.

CHARMING FELLOW IS UNDER-RATED

CHARMING FELLOW (36) won a staying handicap chase at Warwick in much better time than average for the class. He would now have won both times he's run three miles plus but for making a mistake when going under by a short head last time. I've no doubt that he'll be winning better races before long.

CUSOON SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

CUSSON (38) has won both his starts on the Polytrack this year. He started off by beating the smart AW performer Red Birr two runs back and has now gone and run a Group class time to take a class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton. Clearly his official rating understates his ability by quite some margin so he should be followed.

ECCOLLO JUST KEEPS ON WINNING

ECCOLLO (37) won his fifth AW race in a row the other day at Wolverhampton. In doing so he highlighted one of the problems produced by a racing programme dominated by handicaps. In order to stay ahead of the handicapper a horse like Eccollo has to be rushed back to the races after a win before it gets re-assessed by the handicapper.

Eccollo has now had six races in less than a month and one or two more are planned in the very near future. No doubt he'll win again. But horses can only take so much racing, so I'd be wary of betting him once his winning run is over and he's been rested.

DETROIT CITY THE FASTEST JUMPER IN YEARS

DETROIT CITY (45) has run almost unbelievably fast before. In fact I've awarded him speed ratings that I never thought I'd give a hurdler of his age. But the time he recorded when blasting home by 14 lengths in Cheltenham's Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle was something altogether different to what even he has achieved before. It merits the biggest speed rating I've given a national hunt horse in years (and yes I'm aware the rails were moved overnight on the hurdles course; I'm basing his rating on a comparison with the other hurdle races and the bumper run on the same course not the chases).

I was seriously concerned before the race that Detroit City wouldn't act on the soft ground. So was his trainer. After all Detroit City's worst lifetime run came the only time he previously raced on this sort of ground. But this time he seemed to revel in it just as much as he did the lightning fast ground when he broke the course record in the Triumph Hurdle.

I confess I also had grave misgiving's about Detroit City in the Cesarewitch as he's a big horse that has previously seemed to need a run to get him fully fit. But now you won't catch me ever doubting his ability to do anything again. After this run I'm fully convinced Detroit City is that rarest of all racehorses, a genuine champion, the kind you're lucky to see once or twice a decade.

In my opinion the last time we had a juvenile hurdler this good was almost 40 years ago when Persian War took the Triumph and proceeded to win the next three Champion Hurdles. If you can find a bookie who'll give you 10-1 against Detroit City replicating that feat I'd bite their arm off. This is a very special horse.

FAIR ALONG NOW SMART IN THREE DISCIPLINES

Following his win over fences at Cheltenham's Open Meeting FAIR ALONG (38) now has the rare distinction of earning big speed ratings from me on the flat, over hurdles and the bigger jumps.

You don't find many flat racers as fast as Fair Along that are equally proficient over fences. But trainer Phillip Hobbs seems to have a remarkable eye for which ones will make a successful transition. Over the last decade the former flat racers he's run over fences have won just shy of a third of the time first time over the bigger jumps compared to under 20% for those that never ran under flat rules. In fact he boasts a 100% record with four year old chasing debutantes that ran on the flat, having now won four times out of four.

I often say that you should treat a horse as being completely different when it switches from one racing discipline to another. So just because Fair Along was a stayer on the flat and didn't appear to like soft ground over hurdles doesn't mean the same will hold true over fences. Here he won on soft ground over the minimum distance and ran fast enough to be rated an Arkle candidate.

TIDAL FURY A SOLID ARKLE PROSPECT

Last year, for the first time in French jump racing, a three year old was voted horse of the year. The horse that gained this honour was trained in Britain as well, making the distinction even more improbable. I am of course talking about TIDAL FURY (37) who won a whole string of hurdles across the Channel, culminating in the Champion 3YO hurdle at Auteuil.

Last September Tidal Fury did something truly incredible: He broke the track record for two and a quarter miles at Auteuil, the premier jumps track in France. That's an almost unbelievable feat for a juvenile hurdler, especially when you consider that two and a quarter miles is much the most commonly run distance over hurdles at Auteuil.

Unfortunately Tidal Fury had a breathing problem and, like most horses of this type, that meant he found soft ground a problem because it put too much strain on his breathing. He won a maiden juvenile event over 1m 7f on the surface in slow time. But when he encountered soft ground against better opposition over longer trips he ran three bad races in a row. In the last of them, over the longest distance he’s ever tried (2m 3.5f) he was making a dreadful wheezing noise after losing by 40 lengths. But a breathing operation seemed to help as he bounced back to somewhere near his best when leading two out and only tiring from the last to get beat a dozen lengths in a two and a half mile Grade 1 on his only subsequent start.

That last French run was pretty decent because it seems likely that Tidal Fury doesn’t really stay beyond two and a quarter miles.

Tidal Fury’s main objective has always been chasing. In fact his trainer, Jonathan Jay, told Paris Turf back in March that Tidal Fury had already been schooled over fences and jumped well. He told another reporter that Tidal Fury was much better over the stiffer fixed hurdles used in France than over the British variety which can simply be knocked over because he jumps so well.

Last week Tidal Fury finally made the switch to the bigger jumps in a two mile novice chase at Carlisle where the fences have claimed a lower percentage of fallers than any other British track over the last decade - just 3.2%, that's lower than some hurdles courses. In other words it made for an easy transition to the bigger jumps.

The going was officially soft at Carlisle but race times indicate it was actually what would be called good to yielding in Ireland. Tidal Fury won the race well by a big margin, running only a couple of points off the biggest rating I gave him in France. Clearly he’s a solid Arkle prospect. But I would be very cautious about betting him beyond two and a quarter miles or on genuinely soft ground as all his best French form was on yielding or faster ground according to the going allowances I make for my speed ratings. As I’ve mentioned before, French going reports are a joke. So don't get misled by all those wins you see in Tidal Fury's record on 'very soft' going. It’s not always soft at Auteuil as the official going reports suggest. The going there varies just as much as it does on other courses and it’s high time the French racing authorities had a long hard look at how they're using the penetrometer.

PABLO DU CHARMIL IS PIPE'S ARKLE HORSE

Okay, enough with the fast novice chasers already! Britain is bursting at the seams with them at the moment and PABLO DU CHARMIL (40) added himself to their number by winning in very fast time on his chasing debut at Exeter.

Pablo Du Charmil won both his starts over the fixed brush hurdles they have in France, so he's now actually unbeaten in three races over anything except the flimsier British hurdles. His pedigree and form suggest he's likely to prove best at around two miles. And, seeing how fast he ran here, I'd say that makes him David Pipe's Arkle horse for this season.

Pablo Du Charmil ran this season's fastest novice chaser Turko close over hurdles, and it looks like the pair are just as closely matched over fences on my ratings. Right now the versatility of Pablo Du Charmil makes him look a somewhat more attractive candidate for Cheltenham in March. But whatever happens, it's going to take something extra smart to beat either of these French imports.

BLACK HILLS (35) has run a whole lot faster on his two chase starts than he did over hurdles. This backs up the assertion of his connections that he was always going to be better over the bigger jumps. Black Hills certainly ran fast enough here to make him a very good proposition to win an ordinary novice chase next time out.

DON'T PUSH IT IS FASTER THAN DENMAN

I thought DON'T PUSH IT (36) was a good thing to beat Denman (36) at Cheltenham's Open meeting as he'd run so fast on his chasing debut. But unfortunately he made a bad mistake three out, lost about three lengths plus valuable momentum and ended up losing to Denman by three quarters of a length.

I've noted before that I'm convinced Denman needs to be fresh as he was here. He won't be if he takes up his engagement at Newbury's Hennessy meeting. So I'd oppose him with some confidence there. If he'd kept straight on the run in here he would no doubt have equaled the speed rating of 37 I gave him on his chasing debut. But he's going to have to run a whole lot faster than that to justify the hype - and I don't think he will.

As I see it, Don't Push It is a far better prospect. He would have beaten Denman handily here but for the blunder and has already run as fast as most Grade 1 novice chase winners. I reckon he'll be winning at that level sooner rather than later and wouldn't dream of opposing him in novice company.

TIPPERARY ALL STAR A SOLID SUPREME NOVICES' CANDIDATE

TIPPERARY ALL STAR (39) failed to win in three hurdles starts back in 2004. In the last two he moved easily most of the way but then seemed not to get home. A couple of years maturity appear to have given him the stamina he needed as he's done much better over timber second time around. He beat the useful Steel band first time back over hurdles at Punchestown and followed up by winning a hot novices' handicap hurdle at Cheltenham's open meeting.

I awarded Tipperary All Star the biggest speed rating I've given a novice hurdler so far this season. So I would not dismiss his trainer's idea of bringing the horse back to Cheltenham for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in March. He's good enough to be worth a shot at that race.

Runner-up BONCHESTER BRIDGE (37) pulled ten lengths clear of the rest and is clearly a very useful mare. It seems likely she doesn't stay much beyond two miles and she's only Listed class on my ratings. But in mares only races she'll be quite some tool as there are few female hurdlers that can run as fast.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE SPORAZENE

SPORAZENE (40) clocked a very fast time to beat CONTRABAND (38) at Kempton and now looks a serious candidate for all the big two mile chases, perhaps longer ones too.

It's very hard to analyze Sporazene's form right now. All I can say is that he's won both his completed starts over fences and might well have beaten Ashley Brook in one of the two contests he fell in. He may well stay longer. It could be he's best fresh or is a Spring and Autumn horse. There's just not enough evidence to go on. But one thing I wouldn't worry about is his ability to jump right-handed courses like Kempton. Okay he jumped to the left this time. However he ran really fast, and a horse can't do that and score three of his last four wins on right-handed courses (including a Grade 1) if he has major problems going this way round.

There seems to be a general belief that Contraband has lost enthusiasm for the game. Even his owner suggested he was "a bit of a monkey" after this loss. But my read of the horse says the Arkle winner is actually better than ever.

As I see it, there are two things which seem to drive Contraband's form. The first is that for some reason he's pulled like crazy and run unplaced all four times he's run in really huge fields (over 20). The second is that he simply must have a bit of bounce in the ground. The going allowances I make for my speed ratings show that Contraband has won six of the nine times he's run on ground even slightly faster than good since his jumping debut. True, two of his three losses in small fields and on fast ground came in his last two starts. But those were his two fastest ever performances according to my speed ratings.

The problem for Contraband is that it seems even ground that's slightly on the slow side of good causes him problems. So whenever he runs I'd take a close look at the times of previous races on the card to see how fast the course is running. If it's fast I'd bet on him being competitive in high class races and being pretty much unbeatable outside of huge fields in Grade 3 or lower company.

RUBBERDUBBER COULD BE ANYTHING

RUBBERDUBBER (38) seems to be one of those horses that never wins by a big margin. So I wouldn't assume that the Grade 3 class speed rating he earned for winning a good two mile handicap chase at Cheltenham represents the limit of his abilities. If he hadn't tipped up at the Punchestown Festival he may well have won all four times he's run less than three miles over fences (he didn't stay the three when he tried it according to jockey Tony McCoy).

At this point I think the safest approach is to consider Rubberdubber a serious contender for any two or two and a half mile chase he contests, whatever the opposition. He's young and could be anything.

DON'T DISMISS KALDERON

The Grade 2 Sharp Novice Hurdle at Chetlenham was won in sub-par time for the class by Moon Over Miami. So I doubt that the race will be of much long term significance. However there is one horse I believe is worth taking out of the race and that is the 2-1 shot KALDERON (20) even though he got beat by a big margin.

I'd expressed doubts before about Kalderon's ability to get home on a galloping track and this run confirmed them. Kalderon has now won ten of the last fifteen times he's run on tight courses but lost all eight times he's run on galloping ones. On tight tracks he's routinely run seriously good pattern class times both on the flat and over hurdles. On galloping ones he's run like a slug.

The problem for Kalderon's connections is that the horse has already won the only Graded novice hurdle run on a tight track in the early part of the jumps season proper. If they keep him to novice company they're going to have to wait all the way to the Aintree Festival in April to find another suitable opportunity. If I were them I'd be switching him to handicap company and maybe even taking in a few bog conditions hurdles instead. Races like the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton in January, the Scottish County Hurdle Trial at Mussleburgh in February and maybe even Wincanton's Kingswell Hurdle the same month all look better options than the galloping tracks he'll be forced to run on if he sticks to novice company.

Kalderon still ranks as the joint fastest novice hurdler we've seen this season on my ratings. On a tight track you dismiss him at your peril.

MY WILL IS AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT

MY WILL (40) thoroughly deserved to win a valuable Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham the other day. He's amazingly consistent. Every time he's completed the course this year he's earned a speed rating from me between 38 and 40. He's effective on fast ground and soft, on tight tracks and on galloping and over long distances and short. Obviously he's at his very best over long trips when there's cut in the ground, but basically he always runs his race.

IDLE TALK (40) ran a big race for a horse just graduating from novice company. His trainer is clearly right to say he loves soft ground, long distances and stiff tracks. He looks a great candidate for the Welsh National on this run.

CORK ALL STAR SHOWS HE CAN HANDLE MUD

CORK ALL STAR (36) retained his unbeaten record in bumpers when winning the Listed event at Cheltenham's Open meeting. In doing so he demonstrated that he doesn't need fast ground. He'll have to run a fair bit faster to win the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. But he had something in hand at the finish so that is by no means impossible. This was one of the fastest bumpers of the season and he won it well.

TIDAL BAY JUST AS GOOD OVER HURDLES

TIDAL BAY (36) was one of last season's fastest Bumper horses and showed he can run just as quick over hurdles with another easy win at Carlisle. He doesn't need to run much faster to rank as a serious Cheltenham festival candidate. But he needs to show a couple of things besides extra speed to convince me of that. First I want to see him act on fast ground. Second I want him to prove he's not best fresh. He's a buzzy excitable type, and such horses are normally at their best on their first two runs of the season and with gaps of at least five weeks between their starts thereafter. And he's clearly a long term chasing prospect who might well need soft ground to slow things down enough for him to get competitive over the smaller jumps. Still, he's clearly a future star who should not be dismissed lightly in any race he contests in the immediate future.

ALPINE REEL IS GROUP CLASS

ALPINE REEL (39) won a class 4 handicap in Group class time at Wolverhampton and is clearly one of the best horses now racing on the All Weather. He lost his first start in 16 months by half a length and got beat by Bahaar Shumal, one of the best ever AW horses, last time. But he's won all his other three starts and is improving according to my speed ratings. In fact he just managed to lower the course record that Bahaar Shumal set when beating him last time out.

I imagine that both Bahaar Shumaal and Alpine Reel will be heading to Dubai for the Carnival meeting in the early part of next year. They should both do very well over there, especially Bahaar Shumaal who I rate Group 1 class. But Alpine Reel is a very smart horse too and would have a great chance in the Winter Derby if he stayed in Britain. Needless to say, any AW race that he or Bahaar Shumal contests before then shouldn't require much analysis. I wouldn't care to oppose either of them on the sand.

Runner-up DEL MAR SUNSET (37) is as fast as ever at age seven. He'd be rather a good thing to take a class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton next time as he'd won the last two times he'd run in this grade or lower at what appears to be his favourite track and would have made it three in a row but for bumping into Alpine Reel here.

THIS WAS A HOT RACE

When a particular type of race is rarely run it invariably attracts freakishly strong competition because so many smart horses will have been waiting for the chance to run in it. At this time of year there are very few class 3 handicaps restricted to 3YO fillies like the one run at Lingfield the other day. So it was hardly surprising it attracted a tremendously good field which included the Musidora fourth LAKE SHABLA (37), the Lingfield Oaks trial second FUSILI (37) and the promising Godolphin filly DUBAI ON (37) who had won two of her three starts. These three were separated by little more than a length at the finish in a race that was a Listed contest in everything but name.

Dubai On won the race narrowly and has now scored all three times she's run on a fast surface. If she's kept in training she will surely win at least a Listed race.

Lake Shabla has a much lower official handicap rating than the other two and clearly excels on Polytrack. So there are more opportunities for her to run during the Winter. But I would have thought that her classy pedigree makes it far more profitable to hold off on her and wait till she has another chance to earn some more black type to boost her stud value.

Fusili clearly needed her comeback runs following a Summer break but showed here she is as good as ever. Her owner tells me she is headed to America soon where I predict she will do at least as well as another AW filly he ran there a few years ago called Melody Queen. She won three Listed races and ran second in a Grade 2 contest. If Fusili runs before then I'd be wary of opposing her even against older males.

ABANDON SHOULD WIN NEXT TIME

SHOUT (35) won a maiden race on Lingfield's Polytrack in a time fast enough to suggest she'll be able to follow up in a handicap. But the most likely future winner just has to be the exceptionally well bred ABANDON (34).

Abandon was making her racecourse debut for Willie Haggas who has an abysmal record with first time starters on the AW (just two wins from 58 tries in the last eleven years). But Haggas does spectacularly well with horses aged three and up in AW maidens once they've had a run on the surface. He's hit 34 times out of 91 in these circumstances and I'd bet on Abandon making it 35 out of 92 in the near future.

IMPEK, KING OF THE TWO AND A HALF MILE CHASERS

IMPEK (43) has earned a whole string of big speed ratings from me and equaled his best ever rating to take the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. In fact he's actually run remarkably fast in each of his last five completed starts (i.e. Since he started being sent to the front in his races).

There's one thing I know about jumpers, especially chasers which always run fast and that is they're virtually always best fresh. They invariably run to what I call the rest pattern. They're good for they're first two starts of the season but then need a break of at least five weeks between their completed starts in order to run well again. All of Impek's many wins have conformed to this pattern, so I wouldn't expect him to start changing now. He should run big again next time, but unless he's given five weeks plus between his completed starts after that I'd bet on him running below form.

No doubt Implek will again run at Cheltenham this season, despite his seeming dislike of the track. It's hard to avoid the place because so many of the top races are run there. I dare say he'll be given another try over three miles as well because there are so many more big prizes available over that trip than Impek's specialist distance of two and a half miles. But it does seem clear he's not quite as good over three miles. His only win at the distance came in a slow run novice even where he beat just two other finishers.

Don't get me wrong here. I'm not criticizing the connections of Impek. I'd almost certainly run him in the same races they do. I'm just saying that from a punting point of view there are races you shouldn't bet him in.

CHILLING PLACE (42) was horribly unlucky to be knocked over by the riderless Racing Demon when closing in on Impek two out. I can't say whether he would have beaten the winner but it looks safe to award him the same speed rating I awarded him for his novice win at Exeter last season.

Right now I would be wary of betting Chilling Place over fences that claim much more than 6% fallers. He jumped big at the last when winning his point to point and jumped carefully when winning his first chase under rules at Exeter. So far he's run nothing but good races over easy fences and nothing but bad ones over stiffer jumps. The major British jump tracks which claim around 6% or fewer fallers are Ascot, Chepstow, Exeter, Haydock, Newbury and Sandown. If he runs at any other top track or in Ireland (where the fences are almost universally stiffer) I'd bet against him.

I would also be wary of betting Chilling Place on soft or heavy going, as he may well need a bit of bounce in the ground to clear fences effectively.

The only caveat I'd add is that if he's stepped up to three miles Chilling Place may well find things slowing down enough for him to be able to successfully negotiate tougher fences and maybe even softer going. After all he won his point to point at Clonmel whose fences have claimed a whopping 10% fallers over the last decade. And the time he clocked there was fast enough to suggest he really does get the three miles.

I know it seems a bit odd that two clearly Grade 1 horses like Impek and Chilling Place only seem able to run their best under such a limited set of circumstances. But that's the way it is in the Winter game because the circumstances of races vary far more than they do on the flat. On the flat a horse can be called a champion for winning a couple of races in a two or three month period on the same going and over the same distances. Over jumps they have to cope with a much wider range of distances and surfaces and prove themselves over a period of years to achieve that status.

Thanks to the fact that the best horses don't retire to stud as they don on the flat, there are many more genuinely top class horses running over jumps. But for every Kicking King or War Of Attrition that can strut their stuff every time there are ten or twenty horses like Impek and Chilling Place that can run just as fast but need very specific conditions to do so.

TURKO ABOUT AS FAST AS A NOVICE CHASER CAN BE

This has been an unusual jumps season in that we've already seen a whole slew of remarkably fast novice chasers. And I very much doubt that we're going to see any faster than TURKO (41) and BOYCHUK (40) who fought out the finish of a freakishly strong race at Wincanton.

Much was made of the fact that Turko kept diving to the left at his fences. But I put this down to inexperience rather than a preference for left-handed courses. He's now won three times going right-handed, and two of those wins were his very fastest races. Here he ran about as fast as a novice chaser can go.

With Turko we now face the perennial question posed by all French bred chasing prospects: Will he stay three miles? Usually the answer is no because horses are bred to run the distances available to them and less than 1% of the jump races in France are run over three miles or more. But for the same reason it's a difficult question. Jumpers in France rarely get the chance to run beyond 2m 6f, just as flat racers in America rarely get the chance to run beyond nine furlongs. So it's pretty pointless trying to find evidence of stamina in the form of their close relations. If they had stamina they will usually not have had the chance to show it. However, it is at least interest to note that Turko's pedigree is totally jumping oriented on the dam's side. His dam ran over hurdles and all her other five foals to date have gone jumping. They include Aroldo who showed unusual stamina as a juvenile hurdler by running third in a two and a half mile G1 (he hasn't run since) and Rivario, a claiming chaser who ran his best race in a 2m 5f contest – that's a distance you rarely see run across the Channel in claiming company.

My feeling is that Turko will get the three miles. As I see it, the big question is will trainer Paul Nicholls keep him fresh enough to ensure he wins a Grade 1? Right now the answer would appear to be yes as he said that he now intends laying Turko off till Christmas. But if he ever gets tempted to run the horse back less than five weeks after his previous start following his first tow runs of the season I'd be inclined to oppose Turko. He's one of those chasers that always seems to run a fast time, and such horses are invariably best on their first two starts of the season and then with a break of at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter. Turko has won the last five times he's run when freshened up in this way and lost the last five times he hasn't been.

I'm not sure I've really got a handle on Boychuk yet. He's earned huge speed ratings from me three times in a row now and looks nailed on to take a Grade 1 novice chase this season. But I still worry that he may be one of those horses that prefers the Spring and Autumn. Those four awful runs in a row from December to April last year blight what is otherwise a brilliant record. It could be that the distance of those races was simply inadequate, but if Boychuk starts running badly again come December I wouldn't desert him. He'll probably bounce right back in the Spring and be a threat to win something big at the Punchestown festival. Hopefully he'll run to form throughout the Winter now that he's going longer trips and is running over fences. If he does then he'll be a major threat in races like the Feltham and the Run Alliance chases.

DENMAN DOES THE JOB

The winning chase debut by DENMAN (37) didn't really tell us much. His only serious rival put himself out of the race with a blunder, leaving Denman to come home basically unchallenged.

One interesting thing is that yet again Denman ran a fast time. As I've mentioned in my comments about Impek, in my experience jumpers that habitually run fast need to be fresh in order to run well. So, once he's had one more run I'd be looking to oppose Denman unless he's given a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts.

Last season Denman looked like the outstanding novice chase prospect for this term. He still looks very interesting. But I have to say that we've already seen an unusually large number of very fast novice chasers this season, so Denman is going to have a lot harder time in the big novice chases that it looked at one time. Yes he will improve at longer distances, but I'm going to be cautious about assuming he's a slam dunk to win a Grade 1 given the opposition he's likely to face.

TISSEMAN AND BENNET ARE WORTH FOLLOWING

You rarely see a fast time in a bumper race. So the pattern class time clocked by TISSEMAN (36) when beating BENNETT (35) at Plumpton is worth noting. The pair pulled well clear of their pursuers and look set to win decent races.

Nicky Henderson's normal policy with horses aged four or more that win bumpers this early in the season is to send them over hurdles straight away. So we may be looking at a Sun Alliance Hurdle prospect in Tisseman.

Bennett won his sole previous start in an Irish point to point rather impressively. The second didn't run in any subsequent races between the flags. But the 13 length third did, and the won both his subsequent starts. Clearly he's a useful horse and an exciting novice chase prospect. Meanwhile he has a bumper to win and probably come staying novice hurdles as well.

ABRAGANTE CAN RUN UP A SEQUENCE

ABRAGANTE (37) ran a pattern class time to beat TURGEONEV (37) at Haydock. He would almost certainly have won his chase debut on his previous start too but for tipping up. His official rating is ludicrously low for a horse with his level of ability. So it looks likely that he's going to run up a sequence of wins.

Runner-up Turgeonev, like a lot of chasers (Desert Orchid for example) seems to need a longer distance now that he's older. He used to do two miles fine but nowadays the two and a half miles of this race appears to be his optimum trip. He still doesn't seem to be able to show his best form in anything but a small field (8 or less) or on going faster than good. But he's very consistent when he gets his ground, his distance and a small field, so I reckon he can be placed to win again soon.

A DEFERLANT NEVER FORGETS

Before he won at Fontwell last week DEFERLANT (37) was off the course for 499 days and had just one run over fences in the previous three and a half years. But he clearly hasn't forgotten how to jump the bigger obstacles as he sailed home by a big margin in pattern class time.

I'm going to remain a little cautious about Deferlant's ability to jump fences in a crowd (so far he's only won in chases with seven runners or less). But I suspect he'll be okay and wouldn't want to oppose him in his next few starts as his official handicap rating massively undershoots the ability he showed here.

SAVIOURS SPIRIT A GROUP HORSE OVER SIX ON THE POLY

Sprinters invariably peak at five years of age, and this certainly seems to be the case with SAVIOURS SPIRIT (40) who earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me when lowering Kempton's 6f record.

Saviours Spirit has blanked in a dozen tries on turf. But on Polytrack he is some machine over six furlongs. He's won four of the last six times he's run six furlongs on the Poly, with one of his losses being a head second to the very smart Mutamared. His official handicap rating is still relatively low , so Saviours Spirit should be able to gain a couple of more 6f wins this Winter.

Runner-up DON PELE (39) was a Listed winner on grass and won a hot class 2 handicap at York in Group class time in June. But this was his best ever run and it came the first time he's ever run on Polytrack. So it looks likely he's improved for the switch from turf. I'd be wary of opposing him in a similar race next time.

DIANE'S CHOICE (39) ran a close third, earning a Group class speed rating from me for the second time this year. She's won or got to within a length of the winner in each of her last six starts and should have little trouble winning a couple of Polytrack sprints this Winter.

STARGAZER JIM SHOULD WIN AGAIN

STARGAZER JIM (37) won a fast run handicap on Wolverhampton's Polytrack in Listed class time. He's now won all three times he's run beyond sprint trips on the surface and is clearly useful. He should be able to win another few races during the Winter on this run.

Old CONSONANT (37) seems to like Wolverhampton's Polytrack as much as he liked the old Fibresand. In fact, if three tight finishes had gone the other way he'd have won seven of his nine starts on the course. Clearly he's still got what it takes to win a race like this even though he's now nine years old.

WOOLFALL BLUE (36) has run his three best races on his three AW starts and put up another good performance her to finish a close third. He should be winning soon.

ALL THE GOOD LOOKS LIKE A CUP HORSE

ALL THE GOOD (38) won a stayer's handicap at Musselburgh in Group class time. Clearly he's very good over a mile and three quarters or more. In fact he would almost certainly be unbeaten in three starts over such trips if he hadn't run green when running second at Kempton. He looks like a Cup horse for next year on my ratings and would be rather interesting for something like the Northumberland Plate or Cesarewitch if his official handicap rating can be kept low enough.

Runner-up PIETY (37) represented Mark Johnston who has a spectacularly good record with three year olds at longer trips, especially when they're running against older horses and carrying a penalty as she was. She ran a tremendous race, and it seems to me her connections simply must keep her in training next year as she is a slam dunk to earn black type on my ratings. If she were mine I'd make her long term target the Park Hill Stakes next September.