HARDY EUSTACE AS GOOD AS EVER - BUT IS HE REALLY A STAYER?

After he'd won the Ascot Hurdle last year I expressed the idea that HARDY EUSTACE (43) might need longer trips now that he'd gotten older. This was endorsed by jockey Conor O'Dwyer after Hardy Eustace lost at the Punchestown Festival later on. He said then 'He just isn't sharp enough for the two-mile races any more and the staying races will give him more of a chance next season.'

You'd think that now he's won the Ascot Hurdle for the second year in fast time Hardy Eustace has proven O'Dwyer right. But I now have strong doubts.

I have a dictum that I follow 'a horse is at its best at the outermost limits of its stamina'. Over shorter trips it can get outpaced. Over longer trips it can fail to get home unless the early pace is slow.

I rather suspect that the two miles three and a half furlongs of the Ascot Hurdle represents the outermost limits of Hardy Eustace's stamina. He's never earned anything like a decent speed rating from me in seven tries at two and a half miles or more.

You can point to the win in the Sun Alliance Hurdle over 2m 5f as a novice that Hardy Eustace scored as evidence of his stamina. But the early pace of that race was slow and the final time moderate.

It is surely significant that much the worst run in Hardy Eustace's entire career came the only time he was asked to go three miles. He tired badly after two and a half miles to finish tailed off.

I reckon that nowadays Hardy Eustace needs genuinely soft ground to be effective at two miles but that he doesn't stay an inch further than 2m 3.5f. I will therefore be opposing him when he lines up for the Long Walk Hurdle over 3m 1f at Ascot on December 22nd.

The horse I like for the Long Walk is AFSOUN (43) who put up his best lifetime performance to run Hardy Eustace to half a length here.

Like most narrow, light-framed horses, Afsoun is best fresh. The trouble with that is horses also tend to be a bit too excitable following the kind of lay-off that Afsoun had before this race. Sure enough Afsoun pulled for his head going down to the start and was rather too enthusiastic in the early stages. Nonetheless as they rounded the home turn Afsoun looked the likely winner as he was clearly going the best. And entering the straight anyone would have gladly taken long odds on as he was cruising while his rivals were all under strong pressure.

I suspect it was Afsoun's earlier keenness as much as Hardy Eustace's determination that caused his narrow defeat here. With this run under his belt I'd bet on Afsoun settling a bit better next time. He'll still be fresh for that race so I reckon he'll score. Thereafter I'd oppose him any time he's not given a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts.

KAUTO STAR AS GOOD AS EVER

KAUTO STAR (42) ran as fast as he ever has to take Haydock's Betfair Chase from EXOTIC DANCER (42). Clearly he is a very smart chaser. He's now won all five times he's run three miles or more and is hard to get by in a tight finish.

The concern I have about both Kauto and Exotic Dancer is that they gave their all here in a race run at a searching end to end gallop. There's only 32 days between this race and the King George and my inclination is to oppose both of them in that race on the grounds that they may not have fully recovered from the effects of this grueling contest. I'm probably wrong, but at the likely odds that argument surely represents the value play.

It's Kauto Star's consistency and gameness rather than his level of ability that make him a champion. However he looked beatable here, and the French champion Mid Dancer is a bit faster according to my ratings so it will be a fascinating clash when the pair eventually meet.

Exotic Dancer always needs his seasonal debut. After that he's run a whole string of top class races. In fact over fixed brush hurdles and fences he's won seven of his eleven completed starts after his seasonal debut and finished second to Kauto Star in three of his losses.

It's worth nothing that the first time they clashed Kauto Star beat Exotic Dancer eight lengths. Next time the margin was down to two and a half lengths. Here Jonjo O'Neill's charge closed that gap to just half a length. I concede that this may have been due to Kauto Star making his trademark mistake at the last fence which cost him valuable momentum. But it suggests Exotic Dancer has a real shot of beating Kauto Star in future.

Like Exotic Dancer, BEEF OR SALMON (36) always needs his seasonal debut. So I thought the way he chugged on to take a distant third was a good effort in the circumstances. It's worth noting that he has won his second jumps start of the season in all six seasons that he's raced, the last four being Grade 1 contests. If he gets the cut in the ground he seems to need nowadays Beef Or Salmon will surely have a major chance of making it seven in the Lexus Chase next time.

TURPIN GREEN (30) looked uncomfortable with the strong pace right away and was soon being niggled along. This seems to be the norm for him on dead flat tracks now that he's facing experienced chasers. His two chase wins came at the very stiff Carlisle and his best run was in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, another very stiff track.

If I'm right about Turpin Green needing a really stiff track then he's going to be hard to place as the only really stiff UK tracks that regularly stage races for horses rated as highly as Turpin Green are Cheltenham and Sandown. He's good enough to beat just about anything at those courses so I'd keep that in mind as the season progresses. He might well score a big win at one of those tracks at huge odds.

My theory that MY WAY DE SOLZEN (28) needs an undulating track to produce his best received further endorsement here as he faded badly late after going well to finish far back. Since stepping up to pattern company My Way De Solzen has won seven times out of eight on tracks that the Racing Post describe as undulating. On other courses his sole win in eight tries in Listed and Graded races was in a nothing contest where he had over 30 pounds in hand of official figures and started at six to one on.

It could be that the pattern I've spotted in My Way De Solzen's record is just happenstance and he simply needed the run here. But the evidence is too strong for me to ignore until he proves me wrong. So I'll be happy to bet against him in the King George and any other decent race he contests on a flat track in future.

SPECIAL ENVOY A HIGH CLASS STAYING HURDLER

SPECIAL ENVOY (39) deserves some sort of an award for being the unluckiest horse in training. Last Spring at the Aintree Festival he was cantering away with a valuable handicap hurdle when tipping up at the last. And last weekend in the even more valuable Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle he turned in a repeat when again falling at the last with the race won.

Special Envoy looked guaranteed to have won by at least six lengths on both occasions. And he would have earned the same speed rating of 39 from me if he had each time. That's good enough to put him in with a shot against pretty much anything in long distance hurdles.

Next time Special Envoy runs over two and a half miles or more I'd be wary of opposing him, as long as he's had a recent run. He would have won by a big margin all three times he's gone two and a half miles plus following a recent run but for those two freakishly unlucky falls.

HOWLE HILL NEEDS TO BE KEPT FRESH

HOWLE HILL (38) won the Grade 2 Amlin 1965 Chase in decent time at Ascot. He was held up well off the searching early pace and came through quickly to lead four out when the pacemakers tired. He kicked on and took four lengths out of the field running up to the second last and looked set to win clearly till tiring on the run-in.

Clearly the 2m 3f of this race is close to Howle Hill's limit. Equally clearly he's best fresh. He's very consistent on the flat at ten furlongs or less or over jumps at two and a half miles or less when he's given a break of longer than five weeks between his runs. He's won seven of the last eleven times he's run in these circumstances and run three big races in his four defeats. I suspect he can be placed to win another decent chase before the season is out as long as he's rested.

Runner-up FIER NORMAND (38) also looks to be best off a break. If he hadn't tipped up once and if three close finishes had gone the other way he'd have won eight times out of nine when he's been off for five weeks or more.

Here Fier Normand looked to be stretched by the strong early pace. He also showed serious stamina to rally after again getting outpaced approaching the homestraight. I think the 2m 3f of this race was a bit on the short side for him. His best previous run came over an extended 2m 6f and I'd have no problem betting him over three miles plus. I can see trainer Jonjo O'Neill bringing Fier Normand back off a lay-off to win one of the big three mile handicap chases at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Meanwhile I'd like to see him go for another three miler first off a break.

THE VERY MAN SHOULD WIN SOON

At the halfway point THE VERY MAN (37) looked the likely winner of a staying handicap hurdle at Market Rasen last week. He was only in second last place but was clearly moving much the best as the leaders set a searching pace.

However in the back straight as the pace was sustained The Very Man got stretched into a couple of jumping errors and was put under a drive by Tony McCoy fully a mile from home. He managed to close eventually and looked as though he just might do it as he approached the second last chasing the leader RUSSIAN TRIGGER (37) in a close second spot. Unfortunately he walked through that flight and lost a lot of momentum. From there it looked a hopeless position. But McCoy kept scrubbing away and with a hundred yards to go The Very Man started to produce a storming finish that cut down the winner's margin rapidly all the way to the line.

Clearly The Very Man stays tremendously well. He's still a maiden over hurdles and looks likely to be competitive in pattern company over three miles against novices. Meanwhile he's so well handicapped that his connections will surely want to take a shot at another handicap like this. If they do he'll surely be hard to beat.

Russian Trigger stayed on strongly over two miles on his hurdling debut and has won both his subsequent starts over longer trips. He's held in high regard by his in form trainer Victor Dartnall and looks a promising novice.

ROMAN ARK USEFUL ON SOFT GROUND

It's tough to make speed figures on a track that's just been re-configured. But the pace was so obviously strong in the race ROMAN ARK (37) won at Haydock last Saturday that I'm happy to award him the rating lines of form suggest.

Roman Ark doesn't quite seem to get two and a half miles on a stiff track. But he's awfully hard to get past when there's plenty of cut in the ground otherwise, having won eight times out of nine tries on officially soft or heavy going outside of races over two and a half miles plus on stiff tracks.

Roman Ark's record suggests he won't quite get home if he tackles the Boylesports Gold Cup at Cheltenham next time. But thereafter I'd be looking for him to win something decent on soft or heavy ground.

LIGHTNING STRIKE AND TAZBAR WANT LONGER

LIGHTNING STRIKE (37) and TAZBAR (37) fought out the finish of a decent Listed Hurdle over two miles at Haydock last Saturday where both horses gave the strong impression they want more than two miles.

In a race run at a good gallop, Lightning Strike was always moving well, showing a long stride and a bit of knee action as he kept tabs on the leaders. He started to edge away from his nearest challengers in the straight until Tazbar began a sustained late rally to close him down pretty rapidly nearing the finish. Both horses were still keeping on strongly and I'm not sure I'd like to bet either of them over two miles on faster ground than this. I think it was only the strong pace and soft ground that enabled them to run so well here.

SWORDSMAN STAYS ALL DAY

SWORDSMAN (37) put up a remarkable performance to take a novice hurdle at Huntingdon. The early pace was ferocious but he first chased it and then sustained it from the backstraight when moving into the lead. The pace was so strong it stretched many of his rivals into jumping errors and caused nearly half of them to be pulled up. But Swordsman just kept rolling and powered away to beat the field by a wide margin.

Swordsman jumped noticeably well here and has the physique for fences, so he will surely make a very decent chaser in time. Over hurdles I see him as a likely future winner over even further than the extended two and a half miles of this contest. I'd find it hard to oppose him in a novice event over three miles.

LORD JAY JAY TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

The King George entry made for LORD JAY JAY (37) looked wildly optimistic before his runaway win off a lengthy lay-off from a tendon injury at Ascot. It still looks ambitious but is now understandable as he has clearly improved markedly for some reason.

Before the first fence jockey Paul Moloney was clearly keen to try and anchor Lord Jay Jay in second place. But the horse was having none of it and wouldn't relax until Moloney allowed him to stride on into a clear lead. From there he jumped boldly and quickly, much better than his rivals. That said, Lord Jay Jay still hasn't learned to put in a short one. He still employs the novice tactic of swerving before a jump to find the ideal take-off point when he's not meeting it perfectly. He goes to his left but I don't think this means he'll do better on a left-handed track. I suspect he'll stop doing this as he gains experience.

Lord Jay Jay was always going strongly and won this easing up with his ears pricked. So I don't see any reason why he shouldn't do just as well over three miles as he did over 2m 3f here.

Seeing that he's charged off into a clear lead in his last seven starts I'm not at all sure I'd like to bet Lord Jay Jay in a big field where there'd be several horses keen to take him on for the lead. His two wins to date have come in five runner races where he's been able to dominate his rivals from the front. I'd also be concerned about him lasting home on soft ground as his three worst performances have come on the softest going he's encountered.

Only time will tell exactly what circumstances suit Lord Jay Jay best. But for now I'd bet on them being a field of nine or less on good or faster ground over 2m 3f to 3m.

AEGEAN DANCER IS A USEFUL SPRINTER

AEGEAN DANCER (38) took to Polytrack really well to win a red hot five furlong handicap at Wolverhampton. He made a big move to go into the lead entering the straight but then ducked to the rail when he was totally isolated in the middle of the course. He did this before when winning around a turn at Southwell, so I'm going to be interested to see if some sort of pattern in his form develops from this point on. It could be he needs a low draw in races run around a turn. In any event Aegean Dancer bang there with the best five furlong Polytrack sprinters and will no doubt be winning again.

EBRAAM (38) ran a big race to run Aegean Dancer to a photo and would have been winning for the third time in a row if it had gone the other way. Clearly he's smart on this surface and very well handicapped.

GODFREY STREET (25) was responsible for the kamikaze early pace that set up the final time. He tired badly late but I'd really like to see him go back to the super-fast five furlongs at Lingfield where he's now won two out of two, beating pattern class opponents into second place both times. He had his rivals really stretched for four furlongs here and might well be able to go all the way at Lingfield. He'd certainly be interesting if he was switched to America and run in quarter horse races. He might well be top class over two furlongs seeing how much pace he has.

NEW ALCO SHOULD WIN THE HENNESSY

NEW ALCO (42) ran some good races last season. But he improved markedly on even the best of them to run away with a hot Graduation Chase at Carlisle on his seasonal debut while breaking the course record. He set a strong pace, pinged all the fences and won easing up with his ears pricked. It looked like he could have scored by an additional four or five lengths if jockey Graham Lee hadn't eased him heavily in the last half furlong. If he had then he'd have earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a chaser. As it is he ran a proper Gold Cup class time and earned the biggest speed rating I've given a jumper all season. He now ranks as one of the best chasers in training.

I was hugely impressed by this run and find it hard to see how anything is going to get by New Alco in the Hennessy Gold Cup next time out.

One reason New Alco improved here was surely that the very stiff track and strong pace made the race a pretty severe test of stamina. His best previous run came over three and a quarter miles and his dam's only other winning foal, Jeu De Brook, won the Prix President de la Republique over three miles at Auteuil. That is one of the top chases in France and I've long thought of it as the French equivalent of the Hennessy Gold Cup.

After the race, trainer Ferdy Murphy compared New Alco favourably to Sibton Abbey who he trained to beat subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Jodami and The Fellow into second and third when taking the Hennessy back in 1992. My ratings say he was right to make such a comparison.

Murphy also gave a good explanation for New Alco's improvement a few days later when he said “New Alco is absolutely bouncing and he has come out of his race at Carlisle way better than he was coming out of races last season - he has grown up and hardened up a lot. ” This makes sense. New Alco had his first start over fences in France in April of his four year old season. He's still only six and has scope for serious physical improvement.

As I see it, the available 10-1 about New Alco for the Hennessy represents near lunacy on the part of the bookies. If race times mean anything he has a simply monstrous chance of taking that race.

Runner-up IDLE TALK (38) bounced back to his best after unseating his rider four times in a row. I imagine his connections were keen to run him at Carlisle because the fences have claimed a lower percentage of fallers in the last dozen years than any British or Irish track bar Roscommon. Indeed horses fall more often at some hurdles tracks (e.g. Cheltenham and Newbury). He was basically certain to get round, and that was surely the main idea.

Idle Talk ran a good race, chasing the winner all the way. But coming up to the last it was clear New Alco had run him ragged. Nonetheless he kept on to finish an admittedly distant second.

Perhaps Idle Talk will be able to jump stiffer fences now that he's had his confidence boosted with this run over such easy jumps. Personally I'd still prefer to bet him over fences that claim a low percentage of fallers. Only a small number of the undulating tracks that Idle Talk favours have claimed around 6% or fewer fallers. They are Carlisle, Chepstow, Exeter, Hexham, Sedgefield and Towcester. This being so, the obvious target for the horse is surely the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. If he were mine I'd take him out of the Hennessy as he seems to get outpaced on dead flat tracks like Newbury. Besides he'd be meeting New Alco on identical terms to Carlisle which hardly seems fair.

BOYCHUK RUNS TREMENDOUS TRIAL FOR WELSH NATIONAL

Everyone knows that German horses stay better than those bred elsewhere. But the dam of BOYCHUK (39) stayed tremendously well even for a German horse. She actually won Germany's longest and most valuable steeplechase. In addition the best horse so far produced by Boychuk's sire, Insan, to race in Britain is Ballycassidy whose main claim to fame is that he was six lengths clear and going well when unseating his rider in last year's Grand National.

Clearly Boychuk is bred to be an out and out stayer. And he certainly showed tremendous stamina to run a close third in a red hot Graduation Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting.

Boychuk jumped boldly and set a strong pace which stretched several of his rivals into jumping errors. He looked cooked when headed and put under pressure after jumping the fourth last. But between the last two he began to stage a tremendous rally, staying on strongly to go under by less than three lengths.

The Welsh National tends to go to young horses like Boychuk. And this was undoubtedly one of the best trials I've ever seen a horse put up for the big Chepstow race. He ran faster than most Welsh National winners according to my ratings and should improve markedly for the step up in trip. His connections haven't yet nominated the race as his target. But trainer Philip Hobbs talked about running him in the three and a half mile race at the same meeting and has also said the horse is best suited by a strong gallop (something borne out by my speed ratings). This being so, I find it hard to believe he won't be running in the big race. I can't wait until the bookies start betting on it.

OFAREL D'AIRY (40) was one of the horses stretched into jumping errors by Boychuk. He looked the likely winner when kicking on up the hill but was just run out of it close home. He'd looked likely to improve for the step up to two miles when winning at Cheltenham last April and duly did so here. I'd bet on him being placed to win a valuable chase over this sort of trip sooner rather than later.

I was impressed with the way GLASKER MILL (40) sustained his effort for so long and rallied late to get up and beat Ofarel D'Airy on the line. Only a really good horse can do that off such a strong early pace.

Glasker Mill has now won all three times he's completed the course over fences when you include his point to point win. Trainer Henrietta Knight has noted before that he's not very big and that, like many light-framed horses, tends to be best fresh. No doubt she'll run him with this in mind and space out his races. I see him winning a big prize sometime this term.

SIZING EUROPE CONFIRMS HE IS A CHAMPION HURDLE CANDIDATE

SIZING EUROPE (40) won the valuable Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting in a time that confirms he is a serious Champion Hurdle candidate. He wasn't right at one point last season. And if you toss out his two losses then and assume he'd have won last time but for tipping up (it certainly looked that way) we'd be looking at a horse that's won five in a row and run a top class time on each of his last two starts.

I still want to see how Sizing Europe fares in a Conditions hurdle against top class rivals. But he's done nothing wrong so far and could easily be good enough to take the big race in March.

Runner-up OSANA (38) is a brother to the remarkable Gloria IV, one of the best ever AQPS (non-thoroughbred) horses ever in France. Gloria IV won all twelve of his starts including the Prix de Craon, which is basically the Champion Bumper race in France. Osana was also a brilliant horse in AQPS flat races. He too took the Prix de Craon. Here he showed that he's just as good over hurdles. And the way he stayed on suggests that, like his half brother Krach (a three mile winner at Ascot) he's going to benefit from a step up in distance. I'm betting he develops into a contender for the Coral Hurdle at the Festival in March.

MOON OVER MIAMI A SERIOUS ARKLE CANDIDATE

If you visit the paddock regularly before races you'll know that many horses coming back off a lay-off become increasingly agitated as it dawns on them that they're going to be asked to take in a race once more. Quite often this means that they refuse to settle in the early stages of the race and exhaust themselves.

MOON OVER MIAMI (39) is such a horse according to his trainer Charlie Mann. And his record certainly bears this out. Moon Over Miami pulled hard and tired to get 24 lengths on his seasonal debut but settled far better when winning a red hot Grade 2 Novices' Chase over two miles at Cheltenham's Open meeting.

It's unfortunate that the three fastest rivals Moon Over Miami faced according to my speed ratings all exited the race late when still in contention. But the time the horse clocked suggests he'd have beaten them anyway. This being so, the 25-1 being offered by several bookies about Moon Over Miami's chances in the Arkle does seem excessive. He ran as fast as many Arkle winners here and is to be specially trained for the race. As I see it he ought to be favourite.

KIA KAHA CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG RACE

KIA KAHA (38) clocked a fast time for a novice hurdler to win the valuable novices' handicap hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He was always moving well but looked set to be beaten as ROMAN VILLA (38) cruised up to him, going even better, on the run to the last. However a combination of a power-packed finish from his rider Tony McCoy plus his rival's rider dropping his whip saw ia aha prevail narrowly.

This was a solid Grade 3 class effort by Kia Kaha who has now won three of his four starts. It's interesting to note that his sole loss to date came the only time he encountered cut in the ground. But the evidence for a fast ground preference is not yet conclusive.

Off this run Kia Kaha is still well handicapped. He jumped like an old hand here and coped with the huge field well. So if he were mine I'd be inclined to shoot for another handicap but this time against experienced rivals rather than trying to win a Graded novice hurdle.

Roman Villa is not very big and will certainly never be jumping fences. But he's improved with every over hurdles since joining Gordon lliot a few weeks ago. This was the second time in a row he's finished a close second to a smart rival. He can surely be placed to win something decent soon. And, as with the winner, I'd be going for a handicap against experienced rivals as a replication of this effort in a big novice hurdle would blow his exceedingly lenient handicap mark.

NATIVE ROYAL (37) stayed on strongly to take third and looks likely to benefit from a step back up to two and a half miles plus next time. It's interesting to note that he would have won the previous three times he'd run in huge fields like this but for one photo finish loss. It looks like he benefits from the strong pace a big field normally generates.

I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES AND SNAP TIE USEFUL NOVICE HURDLERS

The Grade 2 Anglo Irish Bank Private Banking Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham's opening meeting was run in a time that was unusually quick for a race that was slow run in the early stages. It also produced a stirring finish between I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (34) and SNAP TIE (34).

Snap Tie made the running. But before every one of the first three jumps he looked green as grass. His ears were going back and forth and he appeared really confused about what he was supposed to do, slowing himself up a little just before each hurdle and then jumping awkwardly. At the fourth his jockey Richard Johnson decided to take corrective measures and really booted Snap Tie into the jump which he pinged and landed running. The increased temp Snap Tie was going from this point exposed the fact that I'msingingtheblues was an obvious danger. The horses around him in the chasing group all began to look uncomfortable with the faster gallop while I'msingingtheblues was still swinging along, moving easily.

As they started to meet the finishing hill Snap Tie kicked on into a five or six length lead which prompted Ruby Walsh to make his move on I'msingingtheblues who quickly moved into a rapidly closing second spot. The pair were close at the last which Snap Tie fluffed, landing on all fours. This handed the edge to I'msingingtheblues who went on to win in a driving finish between the pair by half a length. They pulled a long way clear of the rest. Again this is unusual for a race that was slow run to almost halfway.

I'msingingtheblues looks much more the finished article than Snap Tie at this stage. He's more mature physically and ran like an old hand, jumping and settling well and doing everything his jockey asked. This is unusual in a novice hurdler and is surely going to win him more big races this term. Snap Tie obviously has more scope for improvement though, and I would find it hard to pick between the pair if they met again.

CEDRUS LIBANI ONE OF THE FASTEST NOVICE CHASERS

CEDRUS LIBANI (38) put in a very good round of jumping for a chasing debutante to win in fast time at Carlisle. He's now won three of the four times he's run 2 miles or 2m 1f and is an obvious Arkle prospect.

I don't know why Cedrus Libani ran below form at the Cheltenham Festival last year. In fact he's so lightly raced it's hard to form any definite conclusions about him. It could be he needs a stiff uphill finish since all his wins have been on stiff tracks. It might be he's best fresh. Only time will tell.

MODICUM (37) ran yet another pattern class time to finish second. He's a very consistent horse that has either won or finished a good second to a high class rival in his last seven starts. Watching the video of him running here and in other races convinces me that he's crying out for a longer trip. He's a big, tall, deep-chested, long-striding sort with very little change of gear. He just grinds away over two miles and wins or gets close purely on stamina. I'd like to see him step up to two and a half miles next time and am convinced he'll eventually prove best over three.

MOUNT OSCAR IS A VERY USEFUL STAYING NOVICE

MOUNT OSCAR (38) was a very impressive winner of a 2m 5f novice hurdle at Kempton. He was always moving much the best. In fact approaching the straight his jockey, Joe Tizzard, felt confident enough to have a look behind.

Entering the straight Mount Oscar was still cruising. Tizzard was sitting stock still while his rivals were all scrubbing away like crazy. It wasn't until approaching the last that Tizzard rode him at all, and it was only mild urging that saw him instantly stroll away from his rivals to win full of running by a wide margin.

Mount Oscar had his first run in an Irish point to point in November 2004. It wasn't until November of 2006 that he ran again when he was a staying on third between the flags before finally winning in February.

Clearly Mount Oscar has been hard to keep sound. This win came on going that race times indicate was yielding. His point to point success came on soft ground. And, given his fragility, I'm not at all sure I'd like to bet him on good or faster ground. Still he's clearly a very useful staying novice and can surely be placed to win in pattern company before long.

ZEBRA CROSSING MAY NEED TWO AND A HALF MILES

As a former South African resident I found it rather startling to see a winner of the Group 1 J & B Met running in a novice hurdle at Kempton. The horse in question was ZEBRA CROSSING (36) and it wasn't exactly surprising such a smart flat racer turned out good enough to win on his hurdling debut. What was surprising was the tremendous stamina he displayed to beat the smart THEATRICAL MOMENT (36).

Star Of Canterbury pulled hard and took the field along at a strong pace. By the far side he had the field stretched out. Zebra Crossing and Theatrical Moment looked the only ones at all comfortable with the gallop in the group chasing him.

Just before they entered the straight Tony McCoy moved Theatrical Moment alongside Star Of Canterbury. And at that point he looked to have the race won. His mount, a long striding chasing sort, was going so well McCoy stole a peak behind. He knew he had Star Of Canterbury beat and would have seen that the only other horse in sight, Zebra Crossing, was having to be ridden along to close.

Nonetheless, as they ran up the homestraight Zebra Crossing began to go better and better. It looked like his stamina was kicking in. He got upsides Theatrical Moment and in a stirring duel wore his rival down to win narrowly in a classy looking display.

Zebra Crossing stayed on well to get beat less than three lengths in South Africa's top staying race, the two mile Canon Gold Cup. Watching him win this I got the impression he's going to be best at two and a half miles over hurdles. He wouldn't need to improve much to be a serious prospect for the Ballymore Properties. If he goes back on the flat next year he'd be an interesting candidate for the Melbourne Cup.

Theatrical Moment was unbeaten in four Bumper races, including the Champion Bumper at Aintree. He improved markedly on his hurdles debut to finish second here. My impression is that he showed so much pace here and was going so well turning in that two miles is going to prove his best trip over hurdles. He would have won this by a big margin but for bumping into a smart rival and could easily be good enough for Cheltenham.

SPOT THEDIFFERENCE AS GOOD AS EVER

SPOT THEDIFFERENCE (37) came within a fifth of a second of his own course record when taking the big Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last week.

It's amazing that a fourteen year old racehorse can still run this fast, and I have a theory about that.

Chasers tend to lose a bit of their their speed when they hit nine years of age, and do so even more when they reach twelve. They tend to jump slower and safer and fall less often as a result, but normally their loss of pace is a disadvantage. However over these peculiar obstacles safe and sure seems to be the way to go, so old horses actually have an edge. You can see this by comparing the performance of horses aged eight or less with older runners in the Cross Country chases run at Cheltenham so far;

Age wins runs %

8yo or younger 2 99 2.0%

9yo or older 17 154 11.0%

I should note that the two wins by younger horses were in a couple of the earliest Cross Country Chases. Since 2000 there hasn't been a winner of such a race aged less than nine from 69 tries.

Several obvious future threats emerged to Spot Thedifference here. CASADEI (37) ran a huge race to get within a length of the old warrior, after looking to have the race won. Le Duc and Juful Tennis were also bang there when they exited pretty late in the race. But the one the connections of Spot Thedifference will surely be sweating about in future is surely PUNTAL (36) who got beat just three lengths into third after a taking the wrong course at the fourth fence and then rejoining the race.

It's hard to estimate just how much ground Puntal's error cost him because he was off camera when he got going again. But I estimate that it took him at least eight seconds to rejoin the race.

This doesn't mean that Puntal would have won the race by a distance if he hadn't gone off the course. When a horse stops like this during a race it doesn't simply lose ground, it also saves energy. This is why you'll sometimes see a horse lose twenty lengths with a very slow start but still get up to win. It doesn't mean the horse would have won by twenty lengths if it had gotten away with the others. Most often it makes very little difference at all. However in this instance I have to say it looked like Puntal gave away a lot more in ground than he saved in energy.

The most impressive aspect of the performances both Casadei and Puntal put up is that it was the first time either of them had run on a Cross Country Course. Results show that it invariably takes a run or two for a horse to adapt to the unique jumps. Indeed, it seems that a horse needs to have shown real ability over Cross Country fences to win a race around Cheltenham's banks, rails and ditches. This is shown by the fact that the last thirteen Cross Country Chases run in Britain went to a horse that previously reached the first three in such a race before. The last ten have gone to horses that previously won such a race.

Clearly Casadei and Puntal are very interesting prospects for future Cross Country Chases at Cheltenham.

SOLID EFFORT BY L'ANTARTIQUE

L'ANTARTIQUE (38) equalled his best previous effort on my ratings to take the Paddy Power Gold Cup. But he's going to be hard to place from now on. I don't rate him fast enough to win a big Conditions chase, and his handicap mark now fully reflects his ability.

I wasn't very impressed with L'Antartique's jumping on his seasonal debut at Carlisle. He jumped better here. But I note with interest that he's jumped poorly the only two times he's run over the very stiff fences at Aintree. This being so I'd bet against him if he's asked to jump any UK chase track that's claim a high percentage of fallers, namely, Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield, Musselburgh or Wincanton. I'd also oppose him if he ran in Ireland as Irish fences are stiffer than the British variety. Anywhere else though he's always going to be a player when he gets to run what seems to be his specialist trip of two and a half miles.

Runner-up IL DUCE (38) has won a very slow run minor race over three miles. But I don't think he really stays that far. In addition it looks like he has the same trouble jumping stiff fences as the winner, so I'd avoid him on the same list of courses. Elsewhere he looks likely to win something decent at two and a half miles sooner rather than later.

SIR REMBRANDT BOUNCES BACK

SIR REMBRANDT (38) bounced back to something like his best when running away with the three and a half mile chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting. It seems to me that he's at this best on genuinely yielding or faster ground in fields of ten or less over fences. All his wins have come in these circumstances, and most of his good runs as well. When he meets them again I'd bet on him showing similar form to this. But in big fields or soft ground I'd oppose him.

ATEPHOBIA BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS

You don't often see a two year old selling race being the fastest contest on an eight race card. So I'm surprised there was no bid for ATEPHOBIA (33) after he ran away with a six furlong contest at Lingfield in unusually fast time for the grade. I'd bet on him following up this win in better company, and I'd expect to get a decent price about him as punters are prejudiced against selling race form however good it may be.

WATCHFUL CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

The lightly raced three year old filly WATCHFUL (37) won a decent 12 furlong Polytrack handicap in a time that suggests she can earn black type. I doubt that she'll be kept on the go during the Winter. But next year she's one to watch out for in Listed company.

INCHPAST CAN WIN AGAIN

INCHPAST (36) was off for two years before making his comeback in late September. He got beat by wide margins in four turf outings but bounced back to his best when switched to Polytrack at Wolverhampton.

This isn't the first time that Polytrack has revived the form of a seemingly unsound horse that appeared to have lost its form. Polytrack reduces the concussion a horse experiences to its forelegs. And the slow early pace and fast surface of Polytrack racing put less stress on a horses cardio-vascular system. This being so I'd bet on Inchpast winning a few more times this Winter. He was a decent stayer before his enforced absence and is still just as good judged on the time he ran here. The difference is that his official handicap mark has plummeted, making him eligible for races below his true class.

HUGE RUN BY MALT OR MASH

MALT OR MASH (41) earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given a three year old in a handicap run beyond a sprint trip when taking the November Handicap impressively. He clearly has any amount of ability and looks a fantastic prospect for next season.

Connections apparently plan a Cup campaign with Malt Or Mash next season. But my ratings suggest he is actually worth a shot at the top mile and a half races like the King George and the Arc. I know it's unusual for a horse to graduate to Group 1 success at middle distances from handicaps. But Halling showed it could be done a few years ago and I rate Malt Or Mash that good.

SANBUCH (40) was finishing second to Malt Or Mash for the second time in a row and is clearly a very smart three year old indeed. He does seem to need a strong pace to produce his best at a mile and a half though, and I suspect he'll do best when stepped up to longer distances.

After his last start I suggested that Sanbuch was likely to develop into Luca Cumani's Ebor horse for next season. That may still happen. But on reflection, his official handicap mark is already getting a bit big for handicaps, at least of the European kind. Sanbuch now shapes up as more of a horse for the Melbourne Cup to my way of thinking. In any event Cumani should be able to place him to win something big next term.

Third-placed NIGHT CRESCENDO (40) clearly has some sort of physical problem as he finished distressed when beaten 56 lengths at Goodwood in July. My best guess is that it is his legs. It looks like he dislikes the extra concussion he experiences to his forelegs on undulating tracks and on firm going. He'd won three of the four times he'd run on relatively level tracks beyond sprint trips on ground that wasn't firm according to my speed ratings before this run.

Night Crescendo is capable of winning a big race on this showing. It's just a pity he dislikes really firm ground. Otherwise he'd be a great candidate for the Dubai Carnival.

TROPICAL STRAIT (38) showed that he's not just a Polytrack performer by taking fourth. Once more he encountered traffic problems, so it's probably significant that he's won both times he's run in single figure fields and lost every time he hasn't.

NEW GUINEA (38) ran a Group class time for the fifth time in his last seven starts to finish sixth. He's very consistent and capable of winning a Group 3 if he's kept in training.

Sixth placed HEAVEN KNOWS (38) came within a neck of wining four in a row before this season. Clearly he had some sort of physical problem as he only returned in late August. But he's improved with every one of his five starts this year and looks likely to win something big before long. Previously it looked like he wanted softer ground. But that may well have been because he was really wanting a greater test of stamina. He ran his best ever race on what I rated good to firm here when stepped up to a mile and a half.

LA ESTRELLA (37) showed that he's a useful horse on a fast surface to take seventh in the big field. He likes the Poly and could well win several times this Winter if kept on the go.

PIPPA GREENE (37) lost his unbeaten record but continued the progress he's shown to finish a pretty close eighth. It could well be he prefers softer ground seeing how difficult he's been to train.

PABLO DU CHARMIL SHOULD BE KEPT FRESH

PABLO DU CHARMIL (41) was the fastest novice chaser last season according to my speed ratings. And he made a successful transition to non-novice company when winning the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter.

Pablo Du Charmil didn't manage to win over the flimsy hurdles they have in Britain. But over the fixed brush hurdles they have in France and in steeplechases he's now won six times out of seven - earning huge speed ratings from me on four occasions, including his most recent outing.

National Hunt horses that habitually run as fast as Pablo Du Charmil, especially two mile chasers, are invariably best when fresh. Indeed, all the wins he has scored, as well as those by his brother Lyfos Du Charmil and half brother Patman Du Charmil, have conformed to what I call the rest pattern. That is their first two completed starts off a three month break and then with a rest of at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter.

The one run that obviously needs explaining in Pablo Du Charmil's record is his loss at the Cheltenham Festival. Perhaps he wasn't suited by the big field or the stiff track. Or maybe he was over the top for the season. Right now I can only speculate.

Trainer David Pipe seemed reluctant to commit Pablo Du Charmil to the Paddy Power Gold Cup after his win here. He appeared concerned that the 2m 5f of the race would be too far. I'm not sure that's true, seeing that his brother and half brother have both won good races over the distance. The stiff finish and big field would be worries though.

If he were mine I'd train Pablo Du Charmil like Best Mate, another horse that always ran fast and needed to be kept fresh. I'd run him next in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas, then the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February and finally the Melling Chase at the Aintree Festival in April. That would ensure he'd always be running in small fields, on easy courses and given plenty of time between his races. If he's campaigned more aggressively and tried in big fields or on really stiff tracks like Cheltenham and Sandown I'd predict a much less successful season.

ROYAL SHAKESPEARE (40) ran as fast as he ever has over hurdles to finish second. I'm not at all sure I can explain just why he ran so well here. I suspect it's because he's steadily learned to jump fences more efficiently. In any event, seeing how consistent and versatile he is, I'd bet on Royal Shakespeare winning something very decent over the bigger jumps this season.

FAIR ALONG (39) rather surprised me by running a close third. Seeing that his previous chase wins had been in tiny fields and that he'd been stretched into jumping errors in better races I figured he'd make a series of mistakes facing experienced rivals for the first time. I thought his small stature meant he was highly likely to be one of those chasers that doesn't make a successful transition from novice company.

Fair Along certainly didn't jump very well. But he ran close to his best. It looked like he was simply wanting a longer distance. This makes sense seeing that he's placed in both the Cesarewitch and Chester Cup this year. Over more ground the pace would be a bit slower and I suspect his jumping would improve markedly as a result.

I'm inclined to believe Fair Along will run a big race over 2m 5f in the Paddy Power Gold Cup next time.

BREEDSBREEZE IS CHELTENHAM MATERIAL

BREEDSBREEZE (38) ran away with a novice hurdle at Chepstow in pattern class time. As a point to point winner it looked likely he'd appreciate the step up to two and a half miles, and so it proved.

It's always hard to tell exactly how good an easy, lightly raced, novice winner like this really is or what their optimum circumstances are. All I can say for now is that Breedsbreeze is the best staying novice hurdler we've seen in Britain so far this season and looks Cheltenham Festival material.

BUREAUCRAT SHOULD WIN AGAIN NEXT TIME - WHETHER IT'S HURDLING OR CHASING

BUREAUCRAT (37) was one of the fastest juvenile hurdlers two seasons ago and showed he's still just as fast when winning a good handicap hurdle at Huntingdon.

There were a couple of surprising things about this win. The first is that the going was good to soft judged by race times, and Bureaucrat previously seemed to need it faster. The second is that Bureaucrat was perfectly happy to settle in behind early on, despite seeing plenty of daylight. The conclusion seems to be that he's happier to settle now and can last home on softer ground as a result.

Bureaucrat was switched back to hurdling after falling on his second chase start last term, and it looks like he took an unusually long time to adapt back to the smaller jumps. In fact he fell and unseated his rider on his second and third starts this term.

The problem a lot of horses have when they revert to hurdling from chasing is that they overjump which wastes energy and causes them to land too steeply - risking a fall or at least unseating their rider. In this regard it was noticeable that Bureaucrat jumped several of the hurdles here rather big. He's built to cope with chasing too, so I can see easily see him making a successful transition back to the bigger jumps.

Bureaucrat was always moving very smoothly in this race until he was sent into the lead before the second last. He then proceeded to jump that obstacle and the last markedly to the left, ceding valuable momentum and ground each time. He showed real stamina to pick up again each time and win going away.

My gut feel is that Bureaucrat will do best if he's switched back to fences. I also suspect he'll do better over two and a half miles than the extended two miles of this race. Yes I would have preferred to see him not run down the last two flights. But at least it shows he's learned to take some sort of preventative measure to put himself right at a jump. All he needs is time and he'll discover how to put in a short one on the take-off side or 'find a leg' on the landing side instead of swerving like a novice to find the ideal place to launch himself over a jump.

BIG ROB BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

BIG ROB (37) ran his best ever race to win the Macer Gifford Memorial at Huntingdon. It seems rather likely from his form that he is best in small fields, probably because he's not the greatest jumper (it's harder to jump effectively in a crowd). For the same reason he also seems to have trouble with really stiff fences, specifically those that have claimed over 8% fallers in the last ten years - Aintree, Ayr, Cartmel, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Wincanton being the UK tracks which fall into this category).

Toss out his chase runs in races with ten or more runners and those at tracks where the fences have claimed 8% plus fallers and Big Rob's record shows four wins and three second place finishes from eight tries. In bigger fields or over stiff fences he's failed to complete seven times out of ten and never got to within 30 lengths of the winner.

Big Rob is capable of beating decent horses in his favoured conditions, but obviously those circumstances aren't easy to find.

I rather suspect that the runner-up DALDINI (37) is going to achieve more than the winner as he's only a novice and looks to have a good deal of scope to improve on this run.

Daldini was settled at the back with Big Rob, but unlike that one, he was driven along to improve his position from the moment the front runner kicked on as the field raced down the far side. From there he was flat to the boards and really had to reach for three of the four fences in the backstraight. He improved steadily nonetheless and had moved into the lead with two to jump. He screwed in the air at that jump, taking it half sideways in the most ungainly fashion. He kept going and jumped the last better but was just run out of it.

Daldini took off too soon at a couple of the jumps, landed too steeply at others and clearly has a fair bit to learn about jumping fences. When he does I think he'll improve and be capable of winning something pretty decent.

It's too early to say at this stage, but it's interesting to note that so far Daldini has run two pretty ordinary races when he's gone left-handed over fences but has run three big races out of three on right handed chase tracks, winning once and finishing second in pattern class time in his two defeats.

It could well be that, like the winner, Daldini will prove best in small fields over fences. After all he's an ex-flat racer and was the smallest horse in this line up.

TWICE OVER SHOULD BE DERBY FAVOURITE

There has been a slow but worrying trend in Britain over the last decade or so to give the best horses progressively lighter campaigns at two. I do hope that we're not going to get into the same situation as France where the top horses normally race just once or twice in a couple of back end races if they run at all as juveniles.

In any event the extremely late emergence of two year old stars like TWICE OVER (37) is far from unusual these days. But I don't think the bookies have fully caught up with the trend, otherwise they would surely have promoted the Henry Cecil trained youngster to Derby favoritism on the back of his brilliant performance in the Zetland Stakes last Saturday.

Watch the video of that race and it's hard not to be drawn to watching nothing but Twice Over as he is so obviously travelling so much better than anything else. He simply cruised along behind the rest.

Twice Over looked to be in trouble with a couple of furlongs to run because he was trapped behind a wall of horses. But it proved be be no problem at all because he was able to pick up remarkably well after being switched right around several runners into the centre of the course. From there he accelerated away from them all to win with his ears pricked and full of run.

Jockey Richard Hughes is not one to hype horses in my experience. He said after the race; "He felt really good and travelled exceptionally well. He will get a mile and a half and is as good as I've ridden in a while." That's quite some compliment.

FAASEL SHOULD GO FOR THE KING GEORGE

SPINNING LUCY IS A CLASSIC CANDIDATE

The result of the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies' Stakes at Newmarket didn't cause the slightest ripple in the ante-post market for the 1000 Guineas. But the clock says it should have done. The winning time clocked by SPINNING LUCY (37) puts her bang there with the best of her age and sex according to my speed ratings.

Spinning Lucy set a strong pace at Newmarket and had all her rivals' jockeys scrubbing away by halfway. Going into the dip she broke clear in the way that only a top class horse can do. In the final fifty yards she started to idle in front and was then eased by her jockey close home. This cut her margin of superiority from around three lengths to just a length at the line.

I see nothing in Spinning Lucy's pedigree to suggest she won't get a mile. She's certainly got the physique of a miler and shows a long, smooth, daisy-cutting stride (which suggests she won't want the ground any softer than good).

If four months hadn't been blown out of Spinning Lucy's year by a series of minor training setbacks I've little doubt she would have contested some of the top 2YO fillies' races. The time she clocked here suggests she would have at least gone close to winning one of them.

At this point I struggle to see what's going to stop Spinning Lucy winning the Fred Darling Stakes which is normally the prep race Barry Hills chooses for his 1000 Guineas candidates. After that I'd see her as a serious proposition for the British, French or Irish Guineas. I'm amazed she's not even quoted by the bookies or on the exchanges.

OLAY OLAY IMPROVES FOR LONGER TRIP

One of the problems with the handicapping system is that when a horse shows massive improvement it takes several runs for its official rating to reflect the fact. In the meantime the horse can mop up by running in races well below its true class. This looks to be the case with OLAY OLAY (36) who has shown much better form since switching from Ireland to Britain and being jumped up to longer trips.

Last week at Wetherby Olay Olay romped home in a minor chase at Wetherby. His official mark needs to go up by a couple of stone to be in sync with the time he clocked here. Until that happens I'd bet on Olay Olay winning a couple of more times in similar contests.

WAIT UNTIL SPRING FOR BLAEBERRY

It's easy to confuse a preference for fast ground with one for warmer weather. I'm betting that last week's Stratford winner BLAEBERRY (36) is a case in point. She has a reputation for preferring fast ground but my going allowances indicate she won well on really soft ground back in May.

It seems to me that Blaeberry can handle any going and is simply at her best from the second week of March to the first week of November. In this period she's won six of the eight times she's run 2m 3f or more below pattern class. She's lost all eight times she's run outside this period.

On the face of it Blaeberry looks set to mop up in mares only novice chases. But I'd bet on her losing at short odds next time and not recovering her form till the Spring.

SALIENT POINTS TO FUTURE SUCCESS

SALIENT (38) ran a Group class time to go under in a photo finish to the smart older horse CAPRICORN RUN (38) at Lingfield. His front running style is hardly suited to the Polytrack surface, but he clearly excels on it. If he hadn't bumped into such a smart rival here he would now have won all three times he's run seven furlongs at Lingfield. The jury is still out on whether he truly stays further or is as effective on other courses. But that's no problem. There are plenty of seven furlong handicaps on Lingfield's Polytrack and I'd bet on Salient winning one of them soon.

Capricorn Run is another horse that seems to like Lingifield. He would have won all four times he's raced on the Poly at the Southern venue but for one unlucky and narrow loss. He's just as good when he hits a lightning fast surface else where and looks a good prospect for turf handicaps at the Dubai Carnival where I'd bet on him being best suited by the odd trip of six and a half furlongs that they run there.

CHIEF EDITOR LOOKS SET TO MAKE HEADLINES

I thought that TURN ON THE STYLE (38) was a certainty to win at Wolverhampton last Sunday. But, despite meeting traffic problems, the three year old CHIEF EDITOR (38) caught him late to win narrowly.

EFISIO PRINCESS SHOULD WIN SOON

EFISO PRINCESS (36) lost narrowly to the progressive three year old TUDOR PRINCE (37) at Yarmouth. And while the younger horse is promising I'd say the one to follow in the immediate future is Efisio Princess because she's incredibly well handicapped according to my ratings.

Efisio Princess got bumped at the start when running third the first time she ran on a softer surface but would have won her three subsequent starts on yielding or softer ground but for bumping into a smart rival here.

With Southwell's Fibrestrand track due to re-start racing again in a month there are still opportunities for Efisio Princess to race on the kind of slow surface that suits her. Her sire has a tremendous record on Fibresand, as well as soft turf, and I think she has a great chance of adding to it if she's kept going till Southwell starts up again.

NEW YORK OSCAR LOVES LINGFIELD

NEW YORK OSCAR (37) came close to the course record when winning a pretty hot five furlong sprint handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack.

It's always hard to say just how fast a horse can run when it wins by a clear margin on the Poly. Most often they can run a bit faster. In this case New York Oscar clocked a Listed class time and has won the last four times he's run on Lingfield's Polytrack. In fact he would have won all six times he's run on the course but for a couple of very narrow losses early in his career when he ran green.

Clearly New York Oscar is tough to beat at Lingfield. He's a couple of points behind Matsunosuke, the top AW sprinter on my ratings. But I'd have to give him a shot even against that one off this run.

FANDANGERINA SHOULD WIN A NURSERY

FANDANGERINA (33) lost by a short head when attempting Sir Mark Prescott's three runs then a handicap specialty last month. But she showed that she's likely to be a force to be reckoned with in such races this Winter when switching back to maiden company to win in fast time at Wolverhampton.

This was the first time Fandangerina had run beyond a sprint trip. And it clearly suited her. She certainly ought to be able to win a nursery on the Poly before the year is out.