KAUTO STAR HAS 'GONE'

One of the saddest aspects of flat racing is that so many of the top horses get bundled off to stud before they've had a chance to show just how good they are.

We don't have that problem in jump racing. But there's an even sadder situation when we have to watch a former Champion deteriorate. Those of us who are loyal to the old Champion may try and make excuses. Eventually though we have to face up to the fact that the once brilliant star has 'gone' and will never show the same form again.

This point now seems to have been reached with KAUTO STAR (37) who was on his way to running well below his best for the fourth time in a row when unseating his rider at the last in the Betfair Chase last week.

I first suggested that Kauto Star might have deteriorated after his seasonal debut win at Down Royal. This effort confirmed my suspicions.

I know there are some die hard Kauto Star fans who insist the horse would have managed to win if he'd stayed up. But I think any impartial person watching the video will conclude that the horse was out on his feet approaching the last. His legs had turned to jelly, just as they did when he tired so badly at Aintree in April. Indeed this is why he crumpled on landing. He was so tired he was simply unable to support himself.

I'd like to think that this eight time Grade 1 winner could return to form. But he's been jumping fixed brush hurdles and fences for nearly six years now and winning big races for over five. Few horses remain competitive for so long at the top level.

I will long remember Kauto Star's two amazing performances in the King George and the Ascot Chase where he earned the biggest speed ratings I've given a chaser in many years - and did so in back to back races. I won't argue with those who say he may very well have been the best steeplechaser since Arkle. And I'll take issue with anyone who knocks his reputation for anything he does from now on.

From a betting standpoint though, I have to say that I'll be opposing Kauto Star in his future starts.

The success of the admirably game and consistent winner SNOOPY LOOPY (38) does not denote that he's suddenly improved massively at ten years of age. He's simply a solid Grade 3 horse that happened to be in the right place at the right time here.

It's a similar story with the half length runner up TAMARINBLEU (38). He was gifted a pretty soft lead, reaching the ninth fence a full three seconds later than they did in the big handicap chase over the same trip. He kicked on from there and very nearly held on.

As most people know Tamarinbleu is best fresh. Six of his seven wins have come off a break of five weeks or more. I have to agree with his trainer who said that he's going to be hard to place this season. His official rating is now too high to make handicaps a viable option. And he's really not good enough to beat top class rivals unless they run below form for some reason. Still I imagine he'll be found something.

Third placed EXOTIC DANCER (37) showed an aspect of his racing character that I confess I had not recognised till now. Namely that he needs a strong pace, soft ground or a steep uphill finish to pull him into a race.

Here Exotic Dancer pulled hard against the somewhat slow early pace. And the near sprint finish amplified the effect of his mistake four out. He pulled himself back into the race and ran strongly all the way to the line. But on what race times show was good to firm ground he couldn't peg back the first two at the pace they were able to travel due to the relatively modest early gallop.

Similar comments apply to CLOUDY LANE (34). He never really got competitive. I am now not as convinced as I was before that he is not suited by marathon distances because he ran like a real stayer here. I'd bet on him bouncing back to his best over a longer trip or on softer ground.

Nigel Twiston-Davies once said that OLLIE MAGERN takes an awful lot out of himself in his races and needs a long time to recover. This didn't seem to affect him much when he was a novice - probably due to the slower pace they go in novice contests. But since he's taken on more experienced rivals his record has developed a worrying pattern: He's run one huge race on his seasonal debut. And then he's run a series of clunkers.

In fact in the last three seasons Ollie Magern has run unplaced on all twelve of his starts following his seasonal debut. He ran his normal big race first time out this term. But here he was once more far back at the finish, being beaten from a long way out.

Last season Ollie Magern was rested all the way from this race till February without reviving his form. Perhaps an even longer break would turn the trick this time, but I wouldn't bet on it.

POSSOL CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG HANDICAP CHASE

POSSOL (39) showed marked improvement when stepped up to three miles for the first time to win a valuable handicap chase at Haydock. And I agree with his jockey who said that he idled in front and could well have won by a wider margin had he not done so.

It's always tough to tell which French bred horses are going to stay longer distances as there are almost no races of 3 miles plus run in France below pattern class, barring Cross Country events. You need to bear this in mind when you refer to a French bred's pedigree.

In the case of Possol for example, the longest distances his dam's best other foal ran over were 2m 5f and 2m 7f. He won the 2m5f chase and finished third in the one over 2m 7f. So I'd be inclined to conclude he'd have stayed three miles if he had the chance.

Possol is a pretty tall, rather classy looking sort, and he certainly stayed the three miles here. He has yet to prove he acts on soft ground. But he certainly looks more than capable of winning another big handicap chase on this run.

The searching pace enabled the marathon chaser MON MOME (39) to run right up to his best. Indeed he rallied really strongly as the winner idled on the run in and very nearly got up. Normally he seems to need softer ground and a longer distance to run up to this level. Perhaps he'll finally get the big win he deserves if he takes another shot at the Welsh Grand National in which he ran second back in 2006.

I liked the way GOLD MEDALLIST (31) ran on his first start in seven months. It looked to me that he kicked for home too far out in a very strongly run race. He went well for an awfully long way before tiring late.

It does look rather likely that Gold Medallist is best going right handed. After all his eight wins have all been on right-handed courses. And he edged right on the run in when winning his first start over jumps.

So far Gold Medallist has won four times out of four over jumps on right handed tracks and lost seven from seven on left handed courses. For a multiple pattern race winner that ran a good second to Tidal Bay on his chasing debut he does look leniently treated on an official mark of just 133. I have my eye on him to win a big handicap chase on a right-handed course sometime this season.

CRACK AWAY JACK LOOKS SMART

Horses that ran as juveniles in the previous season have little chance of winning good staying hurdles against older horses. They're simply not strong enough so they get outstayed. In fact no horse has ever won the World Hurdle that raced as a juvenile the previous year. And just one four year old in the thirty year history of last week's Ascot hurdle has scored.

This being so I was rather confident about drawing a line through the name of the four year old CRACK AWAY JACK (39) despite all the hype he'd generated by winning three times in a row.

Sure enough Crack Away Jack did lose. But I'm convinced his trainer is right to say that if he'd jumped the second last properly he would have scored.

All the way through the race till that point Crack Away Jack was moving better than anything. He'd just closed up to be a close third when taking the second last sideways, dragging his legs though it and losing a good deal of momentum. He rallied and was closing the winner down at the line. But the damage had been done.

My feeling is that it was class rather than stamina which enabled Crack Away Jack to rally in this race. So I was pleased to hear afterwards that he is now to be cut back to two miles. My feeling is that if this race had been two miles and he hadn't made that error at the second last he'd have won by at least a couple of lengths.

With this run Crack Away Jack put himself within hailing distance of the top Champion Hurdle candidates. He's already grown and matured during the off season, and there's every chance he'll improve a bit more between now and the big race.

Seeing how pacey he is I'm not surprised to see that Crack Away Jack has flopped whenever he's met soft ground. It will be tough for him to avoid such ground entirely during the Winter, so I can see him running a clunker at some point. However the ground is invariably fast these days for the Cheltenham Festival. So my advice for anyone who wants to bet him for the Champion Hurdle is to wait until he runs below form on soft ground then take the best odds you can get for the big race. He's as short as 8-1 right now and will surely go bigger if he flops in soft ground.

CHOMBA WOMBA (39) is the horse that just beat Crack Away Jack here. And, as I've mentioned before, she is almost boringly consistent. Her one failing is that on a really stiff track or heavy ground two and a half miles can be a smidge far for her. I can therefore see the logic of aiming for the Champion Hurdle with her rather than have another shot at the big mares race at the Cheltenham Festival that she lost last year over a longer trip. My concern there is that she's basically just a good Grade 2 horse and probably not quite up to beating the top hurdlers, especially over two miles.

The plus side is that Chomba Womba does seem to be improving slightly. So I can't rule out the possibility of her emulating Flakey Dove and winning the big race. She's just about as good as that one.

We'll never get much of a price about Chomba Womba. But she's an admirable sort and has proven herself to be one of the best hurdling mares of recent years.

ELUSIVE DREAM (38) ran his usual good race to take third, but this is as good as he is if my speed ratings are any guide. Still that's pretty darned good.

The only problem Elusive Dream has ever had besides not lasting jump trips on soft ground is that he doesn't seem very good at fighting for position in a race in big fields. Toss out his hurdle runs on what race times indicate was soft ground and all his races with more than a dozen runners and Elusive Dream's record looks fantastic. He's actually won twelve of the fourteen times he's run in fields of 12 or less at a mile and a half plus excluding those hurdles starts on soft ground.

I'm always wary of saying that there's a specific limit to the ability of a horse that wins pretty much every time it gets the right conditions. So it may just be Elusive Dream will be able to top this effort, perhaps over a slightly longer trip. In any event, whenever he gets a smallish field and yielding or faster ground he has to be considered carefully.

Seeing that he's such a tall, deep-chested, long striding sort, it's surprising this was the first time ALPH (37) had been tried at a longer distance. He took to it well. In fact he seemed to appreciate the searching gallop set by LOUGH DERG (34) which saw him stay on nicely from a long way out to take fourth. I can see him staying even further and see him as a very interesting proposition for a good two and a half mile plus hurdle in the near future.

FRANCHOEK (36) is a barrel-chested sort that won three times over two miles on the flat as a three year old. His combination of raw stamina and class was enough for him to dominate most of the juvenile hurdles he ran in last year. But it looks like he's in need of much longer distances now he's facing older rivals. He was flat to the boards for most of the race and surely needs three miles now. He might well be effective over two and a half on soft ground. However I think he's going to struggle against older horses this term in the top staying hurdles, just like every juvenile hurdler has before him. Next season though he will be a much better proposition when he's had the chance to fully mature and strengthen.

JACK THE GIANT NEEDS TO GO UP TO TWO AND A HALF MILES

Before his latest win at Ascot I had two theories about JACK THE GIANT (40) The first is that he is best before March. This seems logical as he's won all eight of his jump starts before March but lost all five from March onwards.

My other theory for Jack The Giant's seeming loss of form in the Spring is based on the fact that he's tackled high class race over two miles in that period. My theory is that he actually needs two and a half miles plus and is stretched by the pace of championship events at the minimum distance.

After watching him win at Ascot I am now very much in favour of the second theory. He was clearly stretched by the fierce early pace set by ENLIGHTENMENT (23) and LORD HENRY (35) and rather scrambled over a few of the jumps. It was only in the closing stages when his rivals began to tire that he looked comfortable.

I suspect that Jack The Giant could actually stay three miles. Certainly a step back up to two and a half miles has to be a good idea. So I was pleased to hear his long term objective is the Ryanair Chase. Next season, if things pan out as I expect them to, I dare say his big target will be the King George.

I'm not yet totally convinced that Jack The Giant really dislikes soft ground. But his trainer, Nicky Henderson, is a shrewd judge, so I'm going to be cautious about saying he's wrong about Jack The Giant's going preference.

In any event, Henderson clearly has one of the top chasers on his hands now, one that is surely going to win him a Grade 1 sooner rather than later.

Lord Henry's ability to jump boldly and take his field along at a scorching pace makes him a tough opponent over short trips on fast ground on anything but a really stiff track. He's won six times out of twelve in these circumstances. He may never earn a big speed rating as he goes off too fast to clock a decent final time. But there's no question he can get even very smart rivals on the stretch. Any time he looks likely to enjoy an uncontested lead on a fast surface (i.e. in a small field) I'd be wary of opposing him.

Here Enlightenment made the mistake of taking Lord Henry on for the lead and paid the price by tiring in the closing stages. He'd won four of the five previous times he'd run less than two and a half miles over fences or hurdles on anything but stiff tracks and is a rather similar type to Lord Henry. That is he has plenty of pace and will always be dangerous with an uncontested lead at shorter trips away from very stiff tracks.

ART PROFESSOR CAN WIN ANOTHER GOOD HANDICAP HURDLE

ART PROFESSOR (38) clocked a time good enough to win a valuable handicap hurdle when winning what turned out to be a hot class 2 event at Ascot last week.

The searching early pace set by DOUBLY GUEST (34) had a lot of his rivals in trouble a long way out. But he was always moving smoothly and looked set to win by further until runner up HIBIKI (38) mounted a sustained challenge in the closing stages.

It's hard to read any obvious pattern into the form of Art Professor at this stage. All I can say is that he's useful and has the build to go chasing eventually.

Hibiki was being scrubbed along from quite some way out and only really got going in the last couple of furlongs. He's less scopey than the winner but does look likely to stay a fair bit longer than two miles on this showing. He didn’t get the chance to run longer trips before because he was a juvenile. Now he's older he'll surely be stepped up in distance.

Hibiki has jumped to the right in the past, so I think there's a good reason he's been kept to right-handed courses for his even hurdles starts to date. He'll surely be winning soon on a right handed courser even if he doesn't go up in distance.

The fast ground and short distance were hardly ideal for GROUP CAPTAIN (37) but the very strong pace made it enough of a test of stamina for him to equal his best speed rating to finish third.

The fact that Group Captain could equal his best ever performance in unfavourable circumstances suggests strongly that he'll be able to improve on what he did as a novice when encountering softer ground and a longer distance in future. So far he's won all three times he's run on genuinely yielding or softer ground over hurdles. He's got some smart form to his name on the flat and over hurdles. I wouldn't discount the idea that he may prove competitive in some of the best races over timber when he gets his ground.

FOLK TUNE (36) was the only horse not off the bridle with half a mile to go barring the winner and Doubly Guest. He made eye-catching headway around the outside of the field as they turned in and kept on well to finish fourth, still moving well at the finish. The searching pace made this ride more like a two and a half mile race, so I think he now needs to go up to that sort of distance to show the same level of form.

Doubly Guest is obviously a bit of a character. She had to be led in at the start and didn't get going till most of the field had started. When she did start running though she went off like the clappers and led them all a merry dance till after the second last. A blunder at the last caused her to lose a few lengths too, yet she still finished a pretty close fifth.

So far Doubly Guest has run two times on tight tracks over hurdles and won both times. The pace she showed here makes me think she's likely to do best back on tighter courses. In addition horses that go off this fast, especially light-framed ones like her tend to be best fresh. So it's probably significant that her two wins over timber have come off a break of five weeks plus. I look forward to getting a decent price about her next time she runs on a tight track off a break. It could be she'll still be fresh enough next time even without a break as this was her first run in

TORA BORA SHOULD GO BACK COVER FENCES

TORA BORA (36) didn't clock a fast time when winning at Ascot last week. But that's simply because they went a slow pace for the first three quarters of a mile and were only racing at top speed for the last half mile. When I take this into account he's entitled to a borderline Listed class speed rating for his win.

After disputing the lead all the way with ARRAYOU (33) Tora Bora eventually got the better of a prolonged duel with that one after kicking for home more than half a mile out. He was the first of the pair to come under pressure as they entered the straight. But stamina won him the day here, and he gradually wore his rival down before clearing away from before the last.

It's interesting to note that so far all Tora Bora's seven wins have been achieved in races run like this - slow early and fast late. Despite being a tall, deep chested, chasing sort that's built for marathon distances he appears to excel in slow run races. This is also reflected in the field sizes for his wins. He did win an eleven runner race once, where one rival's saddle slipped early causing him to be pulled up. But his other six wins have been in fields of ten or less. Count that race where one rival pulled up early as a ten runner contest and Tora Bora's record in fields smaller than eleven shows seven wins from thirteen tries. His record in bigger fields shows no wins out of seventeen attempts.

It does seem that when there is a big enough field to ensure a decent early pace Tora Bora is not likely to produce his best. However there is a caveat to this. His trainer, Brendan Powell, sees him as a future Grand National horse. So far Tora Bora has yet to run longer than three miles and a furlong (basically because he's only six years of age). It could well be that over longer distances the early pace will be slow enough to make him comfortable even in big fields.

Seeing that chases attract smaller fields than hurdles, and that there are more marathon races over fences, it surely makes sense to put Tora Bora back over fences sooner rather than later.

I should note that there is an alternative theory to explain Tora Bora's form. My research shows that headgear has its maximum effect the first time it is applies. Tora Bora won the first time he wore blinkers and the first time he wore cheekpieces. Toss out his other runs with headgear and his record shows five wins from his most recent six tries. Then again, cheekpieces tend to help horses that are shy of crowding in a race, and that brings us back to my small field theory.

Arrayou disputed the lead throughout with Tora Bora and was moving much more smoothly than his rival entering the straight. However his trainer, Oliver Sherwood has said before that "he has so much more ability than he has shown, but he is a bit of a character." So it was no huge shock that he failed to put up much of a fight when Tora Bora showed such determination.

Clearly Arrayou is a tricky horse to catch right. My speculation would be that he's best on a fast surface and on a dead flat track against inferior rivals. Here the uphill finish didn't seem to suit him.

MY PETRA PROBABLY BEST OVER TWO MILES

I hate sprint finishes because they force you to speculate how well those involved in the finish would have performed in a truly run race. This is the case with the Grade 2 Intermediate Chase won by MY PETRA (37) at Ascot last week. They went slow in this contest until a sprint developed over the last seven furlongs. (I've produced my speed rating by combining my rating for the last seven furlongs with that for the full nineteen furlongs, giving the full distance rating a 19/7 weighting and dividing by 26 - a formula that seems to work in these cases).

Previously My Petra had not seemed to stay this sort of distance - running far back in three tries. But here, surely thanks to the slow early pace, she lasted home. In fact, she showed so much more pace than her rivals in the sprint for home that I'm now convinced she is a two mile specialist.

I suspect that trainer Nicky Henderson will keep My Petra to around two miles for most of her future starts. So the test of my theory will come when she is asked to race without being fresh. The vast majority of the better two mile chasers are best fresh. That is on their first two completed starts of the season and with a five week plus break between their completed starts thereafter. My Petra's form should conform to this pattern now she's out of novice company if my theory is right. However when she gets the fast surface she prefers and is fresh over two miles or a furlong more she'll surely win more good races. I've given her ratings as high as 39 in the past, and that tags her as solid Grade 2 class, which of course she proved here.

Third placed MAHOGANY BLAZE (34) was not suited by the way the race was run. He's a great big strapping sort that does nothing quickly. And he'd improved for the switch from front running to hold up tactics in recent starts. Here, thanks to the slow pace, he had to race much more prominently and kick for home a long way out. Not surprisingly he got totally swamped for speed by the winner. My impression from watching him here is that a softer surface would have helped him as much as a stronger pace.

The obvious immediate target for Mahogany Blaze now has to be the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. He's romped home both times he's run at the course, so I'd be wary of opposing him there - especially if he's kept fresh for the race.

Fourth placed OSLOT (34) was even less suited to the sprint finish than Mahogany Blaze. He had his ears pricked and was full of run all the way from the second last but simply didn't have enough pace to pick up the leaders.

It seems to me this run proved conclusively that Oslot needs longer distances. So far he has run six times over two and a half miles on a really stiff track or longer trips on any kind of course. And he's won all six times. In doing so he's looked a really classy performer. And the further he has run the better he has looked. Since his winning hurdling debut against mediocre rivals he has lost all seven times he's run in races that have demanded less stamina.

I'd like to see Oslot step up to three miles in the near future. The race I have in mind for him is the Racing Post Chase.

EXERCISE GALLOP FOR BINOCULAR

The success of BINOCULAR (30) against inferior rivals in the Betfair Hurdle didn't tell us much. They went 1.3 seconds slower to halfway than in the novice hurdle won by Alfie Flits and came home 1.2 seconds slower. At no point was Binocular extended at all. It was basically no more than an exercise gallop.

Binocular is always going to be near impossible to beat on fast ground in a slow run race like this because he has a better turn of foot than any hurdler bar Jered. The real test will come when he tackles better opposition on a slower surface or off a much stronger early pace. My speculation at this stage is that he'll be vulnerable in such circumstances, just as he showed in the Supreme Novices last year. But I have to add that he was only a juvenile racing against older horses back then and now looks to have grown a bit.

WILL MASSINI'S MAGUIRE REALLY STAY THREE MILES?

The 2007 Ballymore Properties winner MASSINI'S MAGUIRE (36) scored on his chasing debut at Ascot in decent style. But I'm not convinced he's going to prove the potent force many expect him to be in three mile novice chases.

Firstly he went left to put himself right at a few jumps, so clearly he needs to learn a fair bit more about jumping fences before he's going to beat top class opposition.

Secondly he jinked rather violently right quite a way before one of the jumps on the far side. He wasn't trying to put himself right to find the right stride to jump. He was just veering right, just as he had on his previous two starts at the Aintree and Cheltenham Festivals. He was able to win going left-handed over hurdles. Having seen what he did here I now need convincing that he'll be effective on anything but a right-handed course over the bigger jumps.

Thirdly Massini's Maguire only clocked a borderline pattern class time here despite being ridden out to score off a good gallop. Obviously he needs to run a bit faster. No doubt he can go quicker. But quick enough to win a Grade 1 over fences? I'm not yet convinced.

Finally, seeing that he's a big, deep chested sort with a long stride that won over nearly two and three quarter miles here, you might think Massini's Maguire is a slam dunk to stay three. But all the available evidence raises strong doubts.

Consider first his only sibling to race, his full sister Molly Massini. She won over two and a half miles but suffered her three widest margin losses on the three occasions she was asked to go longer.

Secondly, look what happened the only time Massini's Maguire completed the course over three miles. He tired badly to get beat over thirty lengths. His jockey says that was simply because he set too fast a pace. But I wonder.

Massini's Maguire did win one race at 2m 5f on yielding ground at Cheltenham. But the early pace was slow that day, so it wasn't a great test of stamina. The only other times that Massini's Maguire has won beyond two and a quarter miles have been when the ground was good to firm judged by race times.

Until he proves me wrong I'm going to bet against Massini's Maguire when the going is yielding or softer at two and a half miles plus. And I'll side against him over three miles even on really fast ground.

SHINING GALE SMART, BUT WILL HE HOLD HIS FORM

SHINING GALE (38) jumped well when winning a novice chase at Cheltenham's Open Meeting in fast time. But he's needed a breathing operation to recover his form. And in my experience breathing operations are mostly just a temporary fix. Horses often lose form after their first two starts following the operation.

In this regard it's worth noting that Shining Gale's form fell apart after three runs last season - barring one race where he was allowed to set a very slow pace and then sprint for home. In other words it was a contest where his breathing was not put under pressure.

Here Shining Gale was always moving smoothly before coming under pressure for the first time in a sustained duel with Herecomesthetruth until that one ran out at the last. He probably would have won anyway. And he'd have earned a rating of 39 if he hadn't been eased on the run in. However there are still obvious questions about him.

Maybe Shining Gale will hold his form if his remaining runs this term are well spaced out. If he does then he'll be tough to beat in novice company over two and a half miles (I doubt that he'll get three). However, for me, the horse to take out of the race just has to be HERECOMESTHETRUTH (38) who had been narrowly headed by Shining Gale when running out at the last.

Clearly Herecomesthetruth is a bit of a character (last term he got worked up before a Bumper and unseated his rider in the paddock). But it's worth bearing in mind that inexperienced horses do all sorts of odd things on the wide open run in at Cheltenham. As I see it, if there was a Sun Alliance or Feltham Novice Chase winner in this line up he was it.

Up till his impromptu exit Herecomesthetruth had jumped well, as he had on his hurdling debut last year. He's already won a point to point and a novice chase over three miles and will probably do best over that trip in future. He's basically done nothing wrong and could well be very good indeed.

In fact, I think that Herecomesthetruth actually jumped rather too well here. He stood off at several fences and cleared them with several feet to spare, wasting energy in the process. This is what caused him to tire and enabled the winner to get upsides him.

As he began to tire Herecomesthetruth jumped out to the right at the second last. Clearly this was a first, half-hearted attempt to run out. Coming up to the last he did the job properly, jinked more aggressively to the right and missed the fence entirely.

It may be that Herecomesthetruth will have to be ridden around the inside of the course to prevent him running out in future. This would probably restrict his success to small fields. It could also turn out that he'll prove best jumping right-handed. But for now I'm happy to regard this as a one-off aberration that won't require a huge effort to correct.

I'd like to see Herecomesthetruth learn to settle better. In his two chase starts so far he's pulled himself to the front and set a strong pace. Horses that do this tend to take a lot out of themselves and are usually best fresh. So it's interesting to note that all his wins to date (including his point to point success) have come off a break of six weeks plus.

However it is worth noting that Herecomesthetruth did settle and was held up in his two point to point starts. It's probably just the switch back to fencing that's geed him up temporarily. I imagine he'll settle down again soon.

Basically it's way too early to draw any firm conclusions about Herecomesthetruth. All we can say is that he's a big, tall, deep chested, long striding sort that jumps boldly, moves strongly and looks more of a three mile plus than a two and a half mile sort.

RAZOR ROYALE (22) made s sustained effort to chase Shining Gale and Herecomesthetruth but the finishing hill found him out and he tired badly in the closing stages. I'm now beginning to wonder whether he needs to go right back to two miles. He did win a point to point over three miles, but he clocked a time that day ten seconds slower than another maiden winner did on the same card. He also won over two miles, five furlongs at last year's Open meeting. But that was in much the slowest run race he's contested under rules. His only success in a strongly run race came in a 2m 110 yard Bumper at Perth.

Razor Royale looked good here for a long way as he made that big move to try and close in on the two leaders. He's clearly useful and now simply needs to be found the right circumstances to show his obvious talent. I'd say that will involve faster ground, a shorter trip or a tighter track. All these things would reduce the stamina demands that Razor Royale was unable to fulfill here.

IMPERIAL COMMANDER NOT THAT SMART

I don't think the huge speed and handicap ratings others have awarded IMPERIAL COMMANDER (38) for his Paddy Power Gold Cup win are justified. Projections from the best previous ratings I've awarded the first, second and third all point to a solid but unspectacular Grade 3 class rating for the horse.

Imperial Commander did win a point to point. But under rules his form indicates pretty strongly that he's best at trips short of 2m 5f. After all he's won all five times he's run less than 2m 5f under rules and lost all five times he's gone 2m 5f or more. This being so, I'm somewhat skeptical of his prospects in the big races at three miles and more that are his most likely immediate targets. All in all he looks like a horse well worth opposing in the near future.

AMERICAN TRILOGY DESERVES ANOTHER CHANCE

I confess that I wasn't keen on GOLAN WAY (37) before he won the Grade 2 Sharp Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. He's a narrow, light-framed sort that seemed to be all about speed. His previous wins had all come on tight, flat tracks and on fast ground. His flat win came over eight and a half furlongs. So I was dubious about his ability to last home on this really stiff course, especially considering the ground was soft? I also doubted that he had the ability to win a race this good.

Golan Way proved me wrong by making all the running at a strong pace and rallying when it looked like was going to be caught.

Golan Way has now set or forced a strong pace to win all four of his starts over hurdles. He looks to be one of those odd horses that occasionally excels in novice hurdles despite an unprepossessing physique. I'm now going to be wary of opposing him. He won this race by running more professionally than his rivals. Yes he does make one or two jumping errors in a race. But basically he looks like an old hand racing against novices and this gives him a real edge that may well see him win another race this good in the first half of the season before his bigger, less race-hardened rivals start to catch up with him as we approach Cheltenham.

The most obvious horse of this description running against Golan Way here was the warm favourite AMERICAN TRILOGY (36).

American Trilogy chased the winner throughout and challenged him strongly from well before the second last. In the closing stages though he clearly wasn't concentrating. Just as had happened on his hurdling debut last time, he put his head to the right and drifted to the left. He kept moving well but was basically just goofing off and not fully extending himself.

Having watched his two hurdles runs, I can see why American Trilogy was held up for a late run in France. He looks to be a Harchibald type that idles when he gets to the front. I'd bet that we see a change of tactics employed on him next time and that they produce significant improvement. After all American Trilogy was good enough to win a hot Tierce handicap from a Group racer, a Listed race and then run a close third in a very strongly contested Listed race to Arc third Its Gino in France.

American Trilogy has the build for jumping too, so I wouldn't go tearing up those ante-post vouchers for the Supreme Novices just yet. American Trilogy may well prove good enough for that level of competition when held up for a run. Next year I could also see him jumping a fence. He's not big and scopey like most chasing types, but he's nimble and athletic so I reckon he'd clear a fence okay.

Runner up OVER SIXTY (36) is a deep chested sort that's built and bred for a good deal longer than the two miles of this race. She appreciated the strong pace as it pulled her into the contest up the hill and enabled her to stay on strongly, get past American Trilogy then worry away at the winner in the closing stages. Like a lot of good jumping mares, she's a scaled down version of what you'd consider a typical chasing type. She'll probably jump fences fine. Mean while she needs to go up to two and a half miles plus over hurdles. Against her own sex she'd be tough to beat over that sort of trip.

I suspect that fourth placed MHILU (32) is better than he showed here. He moved smoothly far back in second last place most of the way. As they came down the hill once exiting the far side he began to close up, still moving well. Then as they met the rising ground he steadily lost his position. He would have finished a few lengths closer if his jockey hadn't allowed him to come home in his own time from the last. But it did seem that he didn't like the final hill.

Looking at his record I see that Mhilu would have won all three times he's gone two and a half miles plus on a dead flat track if one half length loss had been reserved. Until he proves me wrong I'm going to prefer him on dead flat courses at longer trips than this. He doesn't have the build for chasing but is clearly a pretty useful staying hurdler.

Fifth placed LEO'S LUCKY STAR (25) took eleven runs to score his first success over jumps, basically because he wasn't getting home. So it's not surprising he tired up the hill in the soft ground. Still he's now shown smart from on faster ground on less testing courses and is capable of winning a good novice hurdle in the right circumstances. The Aintree Festival would be his obvious target. Longer term, this big, strong, muscular sort will surely go back chasing. He moved well on his first try over the bigger jumps but failed to get home in heavy ground. He jumped left and tired on a right-handed course before falling on his other chasing start. On fast ground going left-handed I see him as a good prospect for the bigger jumps.

The Ascot win scored by Leo's Lucky Star shows that he can go right handed over hurdles. But he's jumped left a couple of times now, so when he goes back chasing I'd prefer him on courses that turn that way.

HUNTERS PLOY (24) looked out of place as he's a big, tall, deep chested chasing sort that's built for three miles plus. Indeed he's already won a point to point over that trip. He managed to beat inferior rivals over two miles on his hurdling debut. Here however he was stretched into blundering badly and losing his position at the fifth. After that he never looked like getting back into contention.

You could argue that there's not much point persevering with Hunters Ploy over hurdles and that he should go back over fences seeing that he'll be seven years old in a few weeks. But I've seen horses built like him do really well in three mile novice hurdles and he hasn't yet had the chance to run anywhere near that distance. He looked smart on his two previous starts and deserves a shot at a long distance novice hurdle next time.

INDIAN SPRING (23) moved well for a long way but beat a hasty retreat once they met the rising ground two out. He's clearly got ability. My best guess at this stage is he needs faster ground to produce it over NH distances as he's more a flat race type on looks.

Czech raider CHARLEY is another good-bodied chasing sort. He'd show good form in Italy, Germany and the Czech Republic over fixed brush hurdles but found these rivals going to fast for him over the much easier obstacles he faced here. If he ever raids Britain again for an ordinary novice chase I'd be rather interested in his chances as he's a nice looking sort.

PABLO DU CHARMIL HAS A BIG SHOT OF WINNING AGAIN

PABLO DU CHARMIL (41) has always been best fresh. But there was a question about whether he could handle Cheltenham. Now that he's gone and won the Paddypower.com Handicap Chase at the course it's clear he can come up the hill. Therefore the explanation for his two clunkers at the Cheltenham Festival has to be that he just can't hold his form for more than two or three runs even when he's rested.

Seeing that he can run as fast as most of the top two mile chasers when he is fresh I'd say Pablo Du Charmil has a big shot of going in again next time. I just hope he's thrown in against some rivals with big reputations so that I can get a novice price about him.

I can understand why Henry Candy told Tramantano's new trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies that the horse would like soft ground, and also why Twiston-Davies himself says Tramantano is best off a searching pace on a testing track. The horse is a good-bodied, deep-chested sort that looks built for three miles.

I recognise that Tramantano has tired all three times he's tried a longer distance. But perhaps there's another explanation for that other than a lack of stamina. I note with interest that he used to race with a tongue tie but hasn't done so this season. Normally when a horse that ran with a tongue tie returns off a break without one it means it's had a breathing operation. I'd speculate that it was breathing problems that prevented Tramantano getting home over longer trips before. Perhaps now he'll do better over them. It's surely worth a try. After all it was clearly stamina that pulled him into this strongly run race on soft ground.

If he doesn't manage to last the longer distances he seems built for Tramantano is always going to be hard to place. He needs cut in the ground and a strong pace at the distances he's running over now, and that combination only comes up about a third of the time.

MOON OVER MIAMI (30) went well for a long way. He raced with his head held amazingly low over the first two fences but then picked it up. He moved up very smoothly as they came down the hill, went into a narrow lead and looked set to finish at least second until falling away quickly as they met the rising ground.

I have two possible explanations for Moon Over Miami's odd run here.

Firstly he always needs his first run of the season according to his trainer. In his first two jump seasons he seemed to need his first two runs. That could simply be the case here as this was his second start this term.

Secondly, and this is the explanation I prefer, Moon Over Miami has the build of a two and a half rather than a two mile chaser. I don't think he liked being taken along at such a strong pace here. The slower pace of two and a half mile races may well be more natural for him. In this regard I note with interest that in his sole start at a longer trip (2m 2.5f) Moon Over Miami beat the smart Big Bucks at Newbury in fast time.

Moon Over Miami is a classy, good looking horse that shows no signs of having any physical problem. I'm going to be very interested in him next time out even if he doesn't go up in distance. Right now I'd prefer to bet him in a small field over fences as he's run two clunkers when he's encountered big fields, and the sheepskin cheek pieces he wore for the first time here normally suggest a horse dislikes crowding.

TATENEN IS THE BEST TWO MILE NOVICE CHASER

Having seen him tire so badly up Cheltenham's hill last January I thought TATENEN (40) was well worth taking on in Grade 2 Novice Chase at the Open Meeting. But he's clearly a stronger horse now as he set a strong pace and kept on really well to score in tremendously fast time.

It's unusual to see a novice chaser run any faster than Tatenen ran here. So I'm not going to risk opposing him again in the near future. The only time I might do so is if he's run too often. He's still a narrow, light-framed sort and might well prove to need rests between his runs.

In the long run the big test for Tatenen is going to come when he faces smart opponents on good or faster ground. He's a tall, long striding sort that has ground his rivals into submission in his four wins to date. He has yet to win in a tight finish or show any significant acceleration. I worry that he may well get done for a turn of foot when he tackles good rivals on fast ground.

One thing is for sure: Tatenen has serious early pace. He basically burned off his rivals by the seventh fence here, stretching them all while reaching that jump 0.7 of a second sooner than the leader did in the big two mile handicap chase on the same card.

Tatenen has now won all four times he's run over fixed brush hurdles or fences. I have to note my reservations about fast ground and the spacing of his races. But I should add that very few novice chasers can jump well at the pace he can set.

Runner up STRAW BEAR (28) was buried 24 lengths by the winner. I had thought he'd relish the soft ground. He certainly did on the flat and over hurdles. But now I can see why trainer Nick Gifford pulled him out of a previous novice chase where he felt the ground was too soft. Straw Bear isn't really that big. He probably has trouble jumping fences out of soft ground. He'd run a close second on faster ground on his chasing debut to Sir Harry Ormesher, who I rate highly. I wouldn't write him off as an Arkle prospect yet. On good going he may well be able to reproduce his smart hurdles form over fences.

Here Straw Bear was knocked right back by a mistake at the second and did guess at a couple thereafter. He came out of the pack to try and close down the winner leaving the far side. At one point he'd narrowed the gap to six lengths. But the effort told up the final hill, allowing Tatenen to stretch away again.

NUMIDE TOUGH TO BEAT IN MUD

Trainers know their horses better than anybody. And I think that one comment from Jean Claude Rouget, who used to train NUMIDE (40) in France is very revealing. He said "Numide dislikes the company of other horses."

In France Numide was only once beaten in four starts in fields of seven or less. This was when he ran a good second to the top class Italian Derby winner Gentlewave. But over hurdles in Britain he has been able to win in bigger fields, and I'm pretty sure I know why.

My research shows that crowding and traffic problems decrease as the going gets softer - basically because the runners are spread out over more ground and have less chance of getting in each other's way. This is especially true in jump races. So it has to be significant that Numide has run two clunkers on good ground over hurdles but is now unbeaten in three starts over timber on soft ground following his win in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting.

Numide did his usual thing of lobbing along at the back of the field early on. And he had to wait a lot longer than normal for the field to spread themselves out and a gap to appear due to the moderate early pace. This caused the race to develop into a sprint over the last seven furlongs or so, with the crowding that always creates.

Numide was moving smoothly but still had a wall of horses in front of him with two to jump. Then a gap opened and he quickly moved up to challenge. He ran around a bit as he found himself in the open for the first time approaching the last and looked awkward jumping it at speed. But kicked on just after the last, using his flat race speed, then rallied as the smart runner up AIGLE D'OR (40) worried away at him on the run in.

I am not yet convinced that Numide needs soft ground over hurdles. I suspect that he'd still do just as well in very small fields as he did in France even on fast ground. I'd also like to see front running tactics applied on him as they were on his next to last start in France. These tactics enabled him to keep away from the other horses in the same way as dropping him out to last normally does. And they saw him beat the smart Visindar by six lengths.

Numide has always had any amount of ability. The official rating of 124 that he ran off here understates his ability by nearly two stone if my ratings are any guide. So it makes sense to shoot for another big handicap in the Totesport Gold Trophy. If that race is run on the soft ground it normally is Numide should be tough to beat.

Aigle D'Or was too green and inexperienced to do himself justice in the Ballymore Properties at the Cheltenham Festival. But he races like an old hand here. He was going noticeably better than anything from a long way out and ended up only just going under to a very smart rival in receipt of 18 pounds. He showed surprising pace for a horse that's been able to win a Grade 2 over 2m 5f. But we saw that from him last term too. He has a terrific finishing kick and was actually closing in on a really pacey rival close home in a near sprint finish.

Aigle D'Or now deserves a shot at top rivals in a two mile hurdle. He's very close to Champion Hurdle class on this run and it may well be his trainer is right to say he'd have won if the early pace had been stronger.

PUNCHESTOWNS IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

PUNCHESTOWNS (38) won a strongly contested and strongly run 2m 5f hurdle at Cheltenham's Open Meeting with remarkable ease. He cruised to the front coming down the hill. From there all his rivals were toiling while his jockey was able to keep on taking peak backs over his shoulder to see if he needed to ask his mount for more. He never had to. In fact he was able to ease up Puchestowns on the run in, but for which he'd have earned a rating of 39 or 40 from me.

This run puts Punchestowns within hailing distance of the very best staying hurdlers. But I'd hold off on those ante-post bets for the World Hurdle until he's shown he can reproduce this from on fast ground. Yes he did win a couple of minor contests on good ground in February and March. But the contrast between this run and his preceding one on much faster going on the only other occasion he's met high class opposition is hard to avoid.

Punchestowns is built and bred to go three and a quarter miles over fences. Indeed he has quite a few Cross Country chasers on the dam's side of his pedigree. This run was supposed to be his last hurdles outing before he went chasing. Now those plans have been shelved.

Clearly Punchestown's now deserves a shot at the top staying hurdlers. And he'd certainly be an interesting proposition against them on soft ground, especially over three miles plus. Long term though he does remain a chasing prospect, and a very promising one.

NO FLUKE ABOUT DIX VILLEZ WIN

DIX VILLEZ (37) broke a powerful statistical trend when winning the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham. The previous twelve races over Cheltenham's Cross Country course had gone to a horse that had already won a Cross Country Chase. Dix Villez had not.

However Dix Villez did put up one of the best Cross Country debut performances we've seen when third to Garde Champetre over Punchestown's bank fences. So, on reflection, his win was not that improbable.

Here Dix Villez got the better of GARDE CHAMPETRE (36) by three lengths. And you could argue that his jockey saved at least that much ground by taking a legitimate short cut his rivals weren't aware of at the 22nd fence. It's a debatable point though. The thing to grab hold of as I see it is that we now have another Cross Country specialist that can be relied on to show top form in races like this.

Horses tend to improve as they gain experience of Cross Country fences. So it's perfectly possible that Dix Villez may end up being the top horse in races of this type. Certainly I'd think long and hard before opposing him over Cross Country fences in future. The only caveat I'd add is that so far Dix Villez has run his best races when fresh. It may be he needs a break once he's had a couple of runs.

WILL ASHLEY BROOK HOLD HIS FORM?

Kevin Bishop, has done very well with the manouver of switching an experienced chaser back to hurdles to boost its confidence. Seven times out of nine it has got his chasers back into the winner's enclosure within four runs over the last twelve years.

The trick worked again when ASHLEY BROOK (41) ran his rivals into the ground in the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal debut.

Ashley Brook disputed the lead early at a strong pace with MISTER QUASIMODO then kicked on to sustain the gallop when that one fell away. He kept on strongly all the way, jumping well to beat a smart field in style. The question now is whether he'll hold his form.

One thing that I've found with two mile chasers is that they often jump poorly once exiting the novice ranks unless they're rested. Outside of novice company a two mile chaser really has to ping the jumps at terrific speed. And this means they need to use their so-called 'fast twitch' or type IIA muscles heavily, the ones animals rely on for quick bursts of energy.

Type IIA muscles burn glycogen that they store. But the glycogen is burned up by exercise and takes quite a long time to build up again. This is why the vast majority of the top two mile chasers are best when they're fresh.

Ashley Brook has come into a jumps race off a break of three months or more six times. He won four of those six times. One of his losses was a decent third place finish in this race on his first try outside novice company. He got stopped in his tracks by a bad blunder five out that day but for which he would have gone a lot closer.

Ashley Brook's other loss off a three month plus break was when he fell in the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal debut last year. Watch the video of that race and you'll see that he was still moving strongly when he came down. He had a length and a half edge over Monet's Garden at the time while Kauto Star was being ridden along vigorously eight lengths further back. Would he have held on if he'd stood up? That's a tough call. But it's interesting to note that within seconds of the fall he pulled himself to his feet and set off in pursuit of the field. Clearly he still had plenty of energy left.

Horses that are best fresh often hold their form for their first two runs of the season. But they invariably need a break of at least five weeks between their runs thereafter to produce their best. So, as I see it, Ashley Brook's prospects for the remainder of the season now depend on the spacing of his races. He's still smart enough to win another Grade 1 if he's kept fresh.

MAHOGANY BLAZE (38) ran a big race to chase Ashley Brook home and probably could have closed the gap to around two lengths if Paddy Brennan had beaten him up in the closing stages. He moved really well as he gained ground on the run towards the straight and kept on strongly.

This big handsome horse is clearly best ridden from the back as he was here. Towards the end of the season tactics were changed and Mahogany Blaze was held up. The first time this was tried he was on his way to splitting Tidal Bay and Takeroc when tipping up at the Aintree Festival. The next time he was restrained he scored against the very smart Oslot in fast time at Cheltenham. Then he flopped when rushed back to the races just eight days later. Now he's gone and run this big race.

Like most of the better two mile chasers Mahogany Blaze is probably best fresh. The same is true for horses that have had breathing operations like he did in the off season. Prior to this big run he'd won four of the last five times he'd come into a two mile race off a break of five weeks plus since his last completed start. I've little doubt that he'll be earning ratings of 40 plus from me as the season progresses. That makes him a threat to win pretty much anything.

NATAL (35) ran a promising seasonal debut in unfavourable circumstances to take third. His trainer, Paul Nicholls, says that Natal is best on dead flat tracks and dislikes a flat out gallop. Here he was running on a track that the Racing Post describe as 'very undulating'. And the pace never let up at any stage. It's hardly surprising he was beaten from about three out.

So far Natal has run thirteen times on dead flat tracks. He won ten of those thirteen times. His first loss was as a novice against experienced hurdlers when he ran third in a Grade 2. His second was when he ran second to Racing Demon, who is almost unbeatable when fresh on a right-handed track over two and a half miles which was the case that day. His other loss came when he fell in the Topham Chase. Next time he runs on a dead flat track I'll be interested in his chances.

I've noted my belief before that if there were one mile, six furlong chases, TWIST MAGIC (29) would be almost unbeatable. I reckon he has no problem lasting two miles around a tight course. But on a galloping one he requires either firm ground or a slow early pace to get the distance. Here he raced on yielding ground over a course that's two miles around and testing at the longest distance he's ever tried. It was hardly surprising he went out like a light soon after entering the straight.

With most of the top two mile chases being run on galloping courses Twist Magic's future chances are going to be dictated by the weather. I can't bet on him being as fortunate as he was last year in the Tingle Creek Chase where the pace was freakishly slow. He's only ever going to be a betting proposition when the ground is fast or the course tight and when he's kept to the absolute minimum distance.

HOWLE HILL (26) ran an interesting race. He got desperately outpaced and stretched into jumping errors after halfway. Then he began to pick up again approaching the straight only to find that the leaders were gone beyond recall. Clearly there was something about this track that he didn't like. And it seems to me it was it's testing nature. He got into trouble on an uphill section when the pace was very strong and picked up again when the course flattened out.

I suspect that Howle Hill dislikes really stiff tracks and doesn't like soft ground either as both tax his stamina. He's best on good ground away from very stiff courses (Cheltenham and Sandown being the prime offenders for him). So far he's won all four times he's run over fences on good ground away from Cheltenham or Sandown at less than 2m 6f.

Mister Quasimodo's trainer says he's a worrier who got put off by a blunder four runs back at Kempton and concentrated better with a soft lead over the same course next time. Clearly he's a smart horse in small fields at around two and a half miles, and is probably better over fences right-handed. But jockeys will always know how to beat him. All they have to do is take him on up front when they're on a halfway decent rival. This is what happened here with Ashley Brook, so I'm not too concerned that Mister Quasimodo beat a hasty retreat before unseating his rider five out.

Mister Quasimodo would have won all four times he's enjoyed an uncontested lead but for tipping up in one race. He's been beaten all ten times he's been taken on up front. Next time he looks set to get his own way up front I'd be wary of opposing him as I rate him Grade 3 class.

FREE WORLD A SOLID ARKLE PROSPECT

FREE WORLD (38) put up an exciting display to win on his chasing debut at Sandown. Racing exuberantly and jumping boldly, he fairly pinged the seven fences down the far side and had his rivals so stretched by that point that jockey Tony McCoy stole a couple of glances back at them over his shoulder.

Free World wasn't fluent at the third and second last. But he continued clear enough for McCoy to allow him a good long look at the last which he jumped really well before striding home strongly up the finishing hill.

Free World's smart jumping wasn't much use to him over hurdles. But his only loss in four starts over fixed brush hurdles and fences came in a two and a quarter mile race where he tired late and just got caught.

Clearly Free World is a solid Arkle prospect. The concern would be that he's done nothing but front run in his four starts over fixed brush hurdles and fences and might have trouble lasting home in a more competitive race where he got taken on for the lead.

AMBER BROOK IS A USEFUL STAYING HURDLER

AMBER BROOK (38) clocked a time that would win a Grade 3 hurdle when taking a 2m 6f mares handicap hurdle at Wincanton.

Held up, well off the searching early pace, Amber Brook moved up smoothly towards the end of the far side, challenged, still cruising two out, then moved clear on the run in with jockey Paddy Brennan not moving a muscle.

Amber Brook ran second on her hurdling debut over two and three quarter miles. She would have won all four of her starts since over that trip or further if one photo finish had gone the other way. To say that the official mark of 122 she ran off here was lenient is an understatement. My ratings indicate about 20 pounds better than that would right. I see her as a good prospect to win a valuable staying handicap hurdle this term. Next season she'd be rather interesting in mares only novice chases.

BREEDSBREEZE SHOULD CUT BACK TO TWO MILES

It might seem silly to say that a point to point winner that has scored three of his four wins under rules at 2m 4f or 2m 5f is probably best over two miles. But that is now my belief about BREEDSBREEZE (24) having watched him win the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novice Chase at Wincanton.

The Wincanton race was run at a farcically slow early pace. They began to go faster on the second circuit. But it was only up the straight where they really got going. And from there they were really sprinting.

The only horse in the race that could go the pace up the straight was Breedsbreeze. He looked so happy doing it that I decided to have another long hard look at this form.

Yes Breedsbreeze did win a point to point. But it was five seconds slower than the quickest race on the card. His other wins at longer trips were in modest time too. So clearly the early pace was slow in all those contests as it was here. His two best runs on the clock have been over two miles. The first was when he ran second to Ring The Boss in a valuable Listed hurdle at Sandown. The second was when taking the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at the same course.

The only time Breedsbreeze has encountered even a reasonably decent early pace at a longer trip was in last season's Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. In that race he went out like a light with three to jump and faded rapidly to get beat 55 lengths - much his worst ever performance.

Breedsbreeze made his first start under rules over 2 miles and 6 furlongs. He tired late despite the slow early pace to finish third, and trainer Paul Nicholls cut him right back to two miles next time. I think that was the right move then and that it would be the right move now as well.

If Breedsbreeze runs as planned in the Drinmore Novices Chase at Fairyhouse next time over 2m 4f as planned I'll be looking for something to beat him.

I've mentioned before that runner up RING THE BOSS (20) needs a strong pace to be effective. He certainly didn't get it here. And he was unable to jump Wincanton's stiff fences effectively when the sprint began up the straight.

A high proportion of novice chases are run at a slow early pace. So this is unlikely to be the first time that Ring The Boss is asked to jump fences in a sprint finish this term. For this reason it may turn out that he's going to prove best at Sandown and Cheltenham while novice chasing as the prolonged uphill finishes on these two tracks will slow down any sprint finish that might otherwise develop. Either that or he steps up to three miles.

The way the race was run didn't suit SIR HARRY ORMESHER (11) at all. His bold jumping is much more effective in fast run races. Here it simply saw him landing too steeply at a few jumps and spend too long in the air. He was left for dead in the sprint up the straight. I think he'll prove to be best on galloping tracks over three miles. But I wouldn't be worried about betting him over s shorter trip than that as along as the pace looked likely to be strong. The evidence so far does also suggest he wants faster ground than he got here. He lost several races by running green last term but now looks like the finished article. I predict that his jumping ability is going to win him a Graded novice chase this season.

DON'T DESERT KATCHIT JUST YET

One of the first lessons I learned about jump racing was that there are two kinds of top class hurdler. The first is the pacey sort that wins Conditions races with small fields. The second is the sort that has more stamina and wins the Champion Hurdle.

This being so I wouldn't be too concerned at the way KATCHIT (33) was so badly outpaced when CHOMBA WOMBA (38) and TAKEROC (36) surged down the far side at Wincanton in the Elite Hurdle. There will be plenty of horses to take on front runners like that at Cheltenham. The thing to bear in mind is that Katchit has won the last five times he's run in races with a dozen runners or more. In addition he's still young and growing. So it's understandable if he needs a greater test of stamina than he used to.

Runner up Takeroc has certainly grown. Last season I worried that he was too small to jump fences properly. But he did look to have strengthened and gotten a bit taller since then, just as his trainer suggested. Okay he was racing against a mare and a rather small rival in Katchit. But he's clearly grown and will probably do better back over fences now. He just doesn't seem good enough to cut it at the top level over hurdles.

Chomba Womba is almost boringly consistent. But I rather suspect she slightly prefers less testing tracks like Wincanton to stiffer courses such as Cheltenham. So I'm not convinced she's going to improve on her third place finish in the big mares race at the Cheltenham Festival this time around.

EXPRESS LEADER A SMART PROSPECT

EXPRESS LEADER (37) won a Bumper at Wincanton in impressive style. The early pace was pedestrian. But they picked up very strongly from the end of the far side to come home six seconds quicker from there than they did in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle on the same card. Using the sectional times formula I developed for rating slow run races on the flat this points towards a solid pattern class effort by the winner.

When he won his point to point, Express leader scored in a similar fashion, kicking on from halfway to storm clear by a wide margin and win impressively. However I wouldn't leap to the conclusion that he's a horse with a serious change of gear. He's a deep chested, long striding sort that won on soft ground here and over three miles when taking that point to point. Without question he will be back running three miles over fences sooner rather than later. There's no way he'd have the pace to win the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. And I can see him getting done for a turn of foot on faster ground if he comes up against a decent rival before then.