WHAT A FRIEND SHOULD GO FOR KING GEORGE

I recognise that Denman deserves tremendous praise for winning his second Hennessy Gold Cup under a huge weight, and I'll get to that in due course. But for me, from a betting perspective, the horse to take out of the race is the runner up WHAT A FRIEND (41). As I see it the 40-1 Ladbrokes are offering about him for the King George is way too big.

To understand why I say this you have to start with What A Friend's second lifetime start when he finished second to Carruthers. In that race he seemed set to win cosily when in a length and a half lead running up to the last while moving better than any of his pursuers. But then his jockey decided to make sure of victory by giving him a crack with the whip and What A Friend ducked away to the left, stuck his head in the air and it looked to me like he actually tired to run out. He ended up taking the last sideways, blundered and lost the lead and loads of momentum. He couldn't get going again in time and failed to get up by a length.

In a Grade 2 at Cheltenham a couple of runs later his jockey put him under pressure fully three quarters of a mile out and he didn't seem to like it at all. He ended up running third. Then he came under pressure even sooner at the Cheltenham Festival and had to be pulled up.

Last season trainer Paul Nicholls clearly had a big re-think about What A Friend. He was equipped with a sheepskin noseband to bring his head carriage down and give his jockey more control. In addition he was dropped right out in his races and allowed to work his way forwards gradually. Plus, in all but one race, the RSA Chase, his jockey didn't touch him with the whip till they'd jumped the last. He ended up winning three out of four, with the RSA Chase being his sole loss.

Clearly What A Friend is a horse that needs to do everything on the bridle. This is very difficult at Cheltenham due to the steep and prolonged uphill finish. He did manage to win a minor race there off a slow early pace where he was able to beat a small field in what was pretty much a sprint finish. But in three Graded races at Cheltenham he's lost, and in the two Grade 1 events he's tackled there he's run desperately bad.

If he hadn't been ridden too soon at Chepstow What A Friend would have won all five times he'd run outside Cheltenham before the Hennessy. And some of his wins had been really special. The most eye-catching was when he fairly cruised home from Carruthers in a seven runner race. Carruthers has never been beaten in any of his other four starts in small fields. He can basically beat anything in such circumstances, but he couldn't beat What A Friend.

The Hennessy was run on a dead flat track and the huge field looked sure to give What A Friend plenty of cover and thus the chance to delay his run till the last minute. So I was very keen on his chances.

It all looked to be going to plan from some way out as What A Friend steadily worked his way towards the leaders and was clearly going much the best turning in. However running up to the second last his jockey for some unfathomable reason drew his stick and started to get after What A Friend. Naturally What A Friend didn't like this at all. Up came his head and he started to wander around and slow himself up. My strong suspicion is that if his jockey hadn't used his whip, or even if he'd stopped doing so once his mount was responding badly to it, he would have got by Denman. I hate to criticise a jockey but that's how I saw it.

In any event it seems to me that the race What A Friend just has to go for now is the King George. It's run on a dead flat track with a short homestraight and a short run-in from the last. So it's ideal for a horse like What A Friend that doesn't want to come under pressure for a long period if at all. I wouldn't object too strenuously if he went to Leopardstown instead for the Lexus to avoid a clash with his stablemate Kauto Star. I'd give him a real shot there. But I love the idea of getting a big price about him at Kempton around that tight, dead flat track.

The stiff fences at Kempton would suit What A Friend ideally too as is a very good jumper. You could argue this is because he's a bit too cautious and is scared about falling for the same reason he dislikes fully extending himself. But that doesn't seem to be the case. He jumped really well in the RSA Chase even when he was under pressure and tiring from four out. And he jumped really well here too, even when he was crowded at some of the jumps.

The race I hope not to see What A Friend in is the one the bookies have him marked up as favourite for, the Welsh National. I guess he can handle the track okay. But it's hard to see how he can avoid coming under pressure for three and three quarter miles in a race invariably run at a searching end to end gallop around a two mile oval.

He may be a pig of a horse to ride, one that's probably going to make his jockey look bad again in the future. But What A Friend clearly has any amount of ability.

Before leaving What A Friend I should say that I developed a theory about horses like him after watching the videos of all his races in a single session. My theory is that when a horse sticks its head up in the air and slows down rather than speeds up when hit by the whip it is not being 'ungenuine'. I think it is simply demonstrating ego. It sticks its head up in the air to wrest control away from the jockey and it slows down when hit with the whip for the same reason. It's perfectly happy to race. It just wants to be in control.

I should add that when an inexperienced horse runs 'green' it behaves exactly the same way as What A Friend. The difference is that it eventually consents to obey the instructions coming from its rider after a few runs. Maybe What A Friend will eventually start doing so. If so then his rider was probably doing the right thing in the long run by getting after him so early here and my criticism is misplaced.

I confess that I've never been a big fan of the winner DENMAN (42). But the fact Paul Nicholls was able to get him back in time for this race suggested he was over the heart problems that delayed his seasonal debut last season. Indeed part owner Harry Findlay noted that they'd brought him back into training a lot earlier than was the case last year to ensure he was ready first time out (which of course he wasn't last year).

On his final start last season at Aintree Denman surprised me by being in with every chance when tipping up two out. I thought the track would be too tight for him as it had been at Kempton in his comeback run. His big Aintree run was solid evidence that he was on his way back and this win confirmed it.

Looking at the stats before the Hennessy I found that fourteen of the previous fifteen winners had these four things in common:

* They had won at least half of eleven or fewer completed

chase starts - or would have if one photo had gone the other way.

* They'd finished first or second in all their completed chase starts that season.

* If they hadn't run that season they'd won or run second on their last seasonal debut.

* They'd finished first or second in a chase that is today worth at least 20,000 pounds

or would have done but for falling or unseating.

If Big Bucks had won instead of tipping up at the last in the 2008 Hennessy then the last fifteen Hennessy winners would have matched up to these stats. Denman continued the trend by conforming to them this season.

Over the last twenty one years there have been just three top weights in the Hennessy that qualified on the stats I've set out above and previously won a Grade 1 chase. They were Trabolgan and Denman who qualified twice. They won all three times I don't have access to the full fields and results for the previous 31 runnings, but it looks highly likely from what I know of the winners that six of them were also Grade 1 chase winners that matched up to the stats. So it could very well be that Hennessy top weights with Denman's sort of record have won nine from nine in the history of the big race.

It's worth bearing in mind that Denman is nicknamed 'The Tank' not just because of his size. It's also because of his remarkable ability to just keep on rolling at a strong pace regardless of what happens. This is ideal for Newbury where a tremendous gallop can build up because the course is a giant two mile oval with very easy turns. It therefore looks significant that Denman has won all five times he's run at Newbury, scoring by at least eleven lengths every time. He also won by ten lengths the only time he ran around another two mile oval (Exeter).

In the Hennessy Denman was always right up there, led or disputed the lead from halfway and put a big leap at the last and responded gamely to hold off his stablemate in the closing stages. The closest he ever came to making a mistake was at the water jump where he put in a short one but didn't lose any ground.

Denman lost the Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle through lack of experience. He lost his first two starts last year through lack of fitness (but still managed second both times). He's won his other fifteen completed starts when you include his point to point and might very well have won the only time he failed to complete. Clearly he's as good as ever.

Third placed NICHE MARKET (40) shapes up as a tremendous prospect for the Grand National after this run. He was always up there, jumped well and kept on strongly.

It looks like Niche Market needs yielding or softer ground, a galloping track and the stronger pace generated in handicap company to bring his stamina into play. He'd won the Irish National and a valuable Listed chase at Ascot the only previous two times he met these conditions, and it took two top class chasers to stop him making it three out of three.

Niche Market lights up the board in terms of the stats I've compiled for indicating a likely Grand National winner.

Last year Niche Market's official handicap mark was very slightly too low for him to get into the Grand National. This year he'll get into the race okay but unless his connections are very careful his official rating could be too high this time around.

Grand Nationals have become steadily more competitive in the last quarter century. As the prize money for the race has increased and the fences made easier it's become a steadily more legitimate target for the better chasers. As a result horses with big weights have a much tougher time winning. Since 1983 there have been 103 Grand National runners that carried 11-2 or more. They all lost. To ensure that Niche Market stays below that vital mark he has to avoid winning over fences or running another big race before Aintree.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to lay Niche Market off till February, as was the case last year, and bring him back in a hurdle race or perhaps a chase over three miles or less around a tight track. If he's targeted at another big handicap chase on a galloping track before Aintree it will probably blow his chances for the Grand National by ensuring he carries 11-2 or more.

BARBERS SHOP (40) went well for a long way and looked a major threat turning into the homestraight with half a mile to run. But he couldn't quite go with the first two and lost third by a short head.

The fact that Barbers Shop was equipped with sheepskin cheekpieces for the first time here suggested that his trainer Nicky Henderson felt the horse was a bit timid about running in a crowded field. Henderson said in regards to this "I think his courage is there but he just needs to get into his own zone."

This run was right up to the level of anything Barbers Shop has achieved before on my ratings. But it is interesting to note that he's now lost all the four chases he's contested in big fields. If the 2007 Feltham hadn't been run so ludicrously slow and one photo had gone his way Barbers Shop may well have won all five times he's run in smaller fields over fences.

It's hard to tell exactly what the cut off point for Barbers Shop is in terms of how many runners he's comfortable jumping a fence with. But I'd say his record suggests he'll do better sticking to Conditions chases from now on rather than lumping big weights in big fields of handicappers. This being so the King George does look a decent target even though there are obviously two or three likely runners that seem to hold him on form.

KILLYGLEN is the other horse that interests me from the race. As they started out down the far side for the last time he was moving really well. It looked like he was a serious threat at that point. He was still there, going well at the fifteenth. But then he hit the next and dropped out so rapidly soon after that he had to pulled up before the seventeenth.

A similar thing happened in the RSA Chase last season. One bad mistake at the fifteenth and Killyglen fell back so quickly he had to be pulled up before the next jump.

It would well be that Killyglen lack confidence and dislikes being crowded at a jump. When he makes a mistake in a big field he gets scared and slows down dramatically. So far he's won five of the six times he's run in fields of twelve or less and run a good second in his sole loss. He's yet to win in five tries in bigger fields. As I see it he remains a horse of serious potential. I'll be very interested in his chances next time he runs in a smaller field.

BIG BUCKS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE

Staying hurdles are not a popular discipline. Horses that are capable of winning the best long distance races over timber tend to get steered to more prestigious prizes over fences or shorter races over timber. This being so it's not surprising that the very best three mile hurdlers tend to stick around for a long time and become almost unbeatable.

BIG BUCK'S (39) certainly fits this description. He's won all six times he's completed the course over three miles plus and simply cantered away with the Grade 2 sportingbet.com Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury.

How fast Big Bucks might have run if Ruby Walsh had ridden him I cannot say. But it sure looked like he could have opened up at least another six or eight lengths and clocked a proper Grade 1 time.

Big Buck's has shown that he can win on fast ground or really soft, on galloping tracks or tight ones and off a slow pace or a fast one. He's only six and, barring accidents, looks set to keep on mopping up the top staying hurdles.

NACARAT had to pull up in the race after disputing the lead for a long way. He was being switched back from chasing and didn't have much respect for the obstacles, clattering through several and landing on all fours at one. But I don't think this is the reason he tired rapidly from the entrance to the straight. He's a narrow horse that's always been best fresh. His six wins have all come off a break of at least four weeks. Five of the six were preceded by a rest of at least five weeks. But here he was returned to the races just 25 days after his last run.

Nacarat remains a very smart chaser on dead flat tracks when fresh. Next time he hits his favoured circumstances I'd bet on him bouncing back to his best - and it should be at a nice price too after the two clunkers he's run in unfavourable conditions so far this term.

RIVERSIDE THEATRE CAN RUN FASTER

RIVERSIDE THEATRE (37) clocked a very decent time when winning on his chasing debut at Newbury. But it's clear he can run faster. He was left pretty much alone from three out and was able to amble home from there 2.2 seconds slower than they managed in the handicap chase over five and a half furlongs longer later on the card.

Seeing how easily he was gong, if something had been around to press Riverside Theatre I'm sure he'd have been able to come home as quickly as the handicappers. If he had then he'd have earned a Grade 1 rather than a Listed class speed rating from me

The most impressive part of Riverside Theatre's win was his fast and accurate jumping. He fairly pinged the jumps and showed that he could put in a short one or really stand off and go big if he had to.

As with most top class two mile chasers Riverside Theatre seems best fresh. He has now won all five times he's come into a race off a break of 54 days or more and lost all four times he's been brought back more quickly. I wouldn't bet on this changing any time soon. A race is always going to take more out of him than most horses because he's a narrow, rather thin-necked sort.

LADY AN CO (22) is the other obvious horse to take out of the race. She set a fierce pace that had the field on schedule to clock a Grade 1 time till basically stopping with two to jump. Clearly she went off too fast. But she certainly jumped well at serious speed till she tired.

You could argue that Lady An Co needs tight turns to restrain her in the early stages and a very short homestraight to enable her to last home. After all, chuck out her debut loss and she won four of the five times she ran in France on tracks that were ten furlongs or less in circumference with homestraights of two furlongs or less (a lot of French provincial courses are like this because they're built around trotting tracks). However she was able to run third in a Grade 2 chase at Auteuil which is 12 furlongs around and has a three furlong homestraight. So I'd be optimistic that she'll get home around pretty much any tight track in Britain or Ireland.

The other horse that caught my eye in the race was CAPTAIN AMERICO. He's built and bred for three miles and does seem best over that sort of trip judged on form. So it wasn't surprising he got stretched into a series of jumping errors before capsizing at the sixth. What I found impressive was that a horse like him could manage to stick so close to such a strong pace over a distance that was clearly inadequate. He's a good looking horse with very decent form at longer trips. Next time he goes at least two and a half miles, preferably three, I'll be interested in his chances.

MICHEL LE BON NEEDS MORE TIME

MICHEL LE BON (37) won impressively on his chasing debut at Newbury. But he pulled hard against the slow early pace, guessed at some fences and overjumped a few others. He looked horribly green and in need of more experience, something his trainer Paul Nicholls commented on afterwards.

Nicholls said "He would have run sooner but has just needed so much schooling to learn his job. He schooled every day this week and Tony has given him a brilliant ride. He's a huge talent, but we won't aim high with him until he has plenty of experience."

My feeling is that Michel Le Bon is more a horse for next season than this. There are some brilliant novice chasers around this term and I reckon he's going to have problems when he tackles them.

It is worth noting that I only gave Michel Le Bon such a good rating because he came home over the last two miles just 1.8 seconds slower than Riverside Theatre after going slow for the first mile. This indicates he'd have no problem cutting back to two and a half miles.

The fact that the race effectively developed into a two mile contest did not suit PETTIFOUR. He's a big, really deep chested sort that has won over three miles plus and looks built to stay the Grand National trip. He was stretched from halfway by the pace but kept finding more despite being under pressure for a long way till blundering and unseating his rider two out when looking sure to finish second.

Next time out in a more strongly run contest I'd bet on Pettitfour bouncing back to form - especially on softer ground. Remarkably, race times indicate the ground was only on the yielding side of good despite the rain.

CONSIGLIERE CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER

CONSIGLIERE (38) won a really strongly run renewal of the Jim Joel Memorial Chase at Newbury, pulling well clear of the rest with the front running Mam Ratagan.

Trainer David Pipe says that Consigliere is best with a bit of cut in the ground and small fields. This certainly seems to be right. All his wins have been in fields of ten or less on yielding or softer ground, and he's won five of the last six times he's run in these circumstances.

Any time he hits a smallish field with cut in the ground I'd be interested in Consigliere's chances. He's good enough to win a G3 on this run.

MAM RATAGAN (37) keeps finishing second to decent sorts. He set a strong pace here and kept on well after jumping boldly. He should be a slam dunk to win an ordinary novice chase next time.

PUNCHESTOWNS NEEDS TO DO A LOT MORE

PUNCHESTOWNS (28) didn't do that much on his chasing debut at Newbury in terms of the clock. The only time he was really going at racing pace was from five out to two out. That brief burst of speed was enough to win him the race. But his two main rivals in a four horse race clearly ran below form. He was left to beat a runner up that had won just one of his last eight starts and finished far back all three times he'd previously tackled pattern company.

Yes Punchestowns was visually impressive. However, now I've had the chance to see him line up against other chasers I have to say he's not as big or robust as most horses that excel over fences. In what is shaping up as a vintage season for novice chasers I just don't see how this performance justified promoting him to favourite for the RSA Chase.

I had thought that DEE EE WILLIAMS (20) would have a real shot of beating Punchestowns as he's run really fast, has the physique for the bigger jumps and looks to have any amount of ability. But I should have remembered that he often got caught flat footed when the pace quickened over hurdles. Here the increased gallop from five out got him in more trouble. He made a mistake at the fourth last, ploughed through the next and was basically done thereafter.

This run did at least point one way forward for Dee Ee Williams as it showed he can make the running. All he has to do now is go off at a much stronger pace and he won't get caught flat-footed and stretched into mistakes by an increased tempo as he was here. Either that or perhaps switch him to handicap company against more experienced rivals who tend to go a strong pace throughout.

GOING WRONG A GREAT CHASING PROSPECT

GOING WRONG (37) is a big, long striding chasing sort that looks built for at least three miles and shows knee action. He'd won a decent novice hurdle at Carlisle from two subsequent winners the first time he'd encountered cut in the ground over a longer trip. So it was understandable he started favourite to win over an even longer trip at Newcastle last Saturday.

Everything looked to be going well for most of the race as Going Wrong tanked along, moving easily. He jumped rather sketchily at the fifth and fourth last when he was asked to improve but cleared the last three cleanly and jumped into the lead when Bygones Of Brid fluffed the last. He looked to idle a bit in front though. This combined with the fact that Bygones Of Brid rallied strongly allowed his rival to get up again. And although Going Wrong rallied himself when passed he failed to get back up by a neck.

Given his stride pattern and size, Going Wrong is always going to need a bit of cut in the ground. It's tempting to say he should now go straight over fences. But he ran fast enough here to be competitive in pattern company over timber. And logically he should be capable of running a bit faster on softer ground and over a longer trip.

Over three miles plus on soft or heavy I'd be wary of opposing Going Wrong.

The winner BYGONES OF BRID (37) is more the finished article and also not such a giant chasing type (though I could see him jumping fences). He apparently endured a nightmare journey when running a clunker at Chepstow on his seasonal debut (he didn't eat up when he was there according to his trainer). He also ran well below form at the Cheltenham Festival the only other time he had to travel a considerable distance from his home base to get to the races. He lost first time out but has won the other three times he's run on Northern or Scottish tracks.

Until he proves that he can travel I'm going to side against Bygones Of Brid when he travels down South. But he's clearly one of the better staying novice hurdlers and should be able to take something decent up North.

DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE GO NATIVE

It is impossible to tell how fast GO NATIVE (22) would have run if the early pace had been more than a crawl in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. However the presence of SOLWHIT (19) five and three quarter lengths back in third suggests this was quite some performance. Solwhit showed that he's very effective indeed in a sprint finish when beating Muirhead and Hurricane Fly at Punchestown on his previous start. So I think it's fair to take him as a yardstick, especially seeing that Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity filled second place.

Go Native showed a serious turn of foot to smoothly edge ahead and comfortably win the mad dash for the line. However he's shown in the past that he doesn't require a sprint finish to produce his very best. He clocked a time only a tenth of a second slower than the Champion Hurdle on the same card when winning the Supreme Novices last season.

It's now pretty clear that, like most horses with tremendous acceleration, Go Native cannot produce it on a slow surface. He can cope with the yielding ground he had here but not slower.

Go Native did win a weak six runner Grade 2 on soft ground against novices but his other three Graded runs on softer ground than yielding have all been losses. If he hadn't thrown one race away by running green he would now have won the last six times he's run on yielding or faster ground.

Go Native is a good-bodied, really classy looking sort. He looks overpriced for the Champion Hurdle at 12-1 to me. I recognise that of the 89 horses that have won the Supreme Novices and its precursor the Gloucestershire Hurdle (which used to be run in two divisions) only one went on to win the Champion Hurdle the next year. This was Bula in 1971. But two of the last ten winners of the race were Brave Inca and Hors La Lois III who took the Champion Hurdle later on, and it now looks like Go Native was an unusually good Supreme Novices winner.

He won an unlisted juvenile hurdle on his first start over timber on what race times indicate was yielding ground. His other six wins have all been on good or faster ground as judged by race times. That juvenile win is his only success in six starts on what race times indicate was genuinely yielding or softer going.

BINOCULAR (18) was a big disappointment. After pulling hard and moving well early he failed to go with the first three from two out.

I have two possible explanations for this run. One is that Binocular's handler Nicky Henderson is one of those old school trainers who targets a specific race. By implication therefore Binocular might well have needed this outing since Henderson will be training him to peak in March.

The second explanation for Binocular’s sub-par run is a better one, and this is that he needs a faster surface to produce the turn of foot which is his big weapon.

Binocular did win an unlisted juvenile hurdle on his first start over timber on what race times indicate was yielding ground. His other six wins have all been on good or faster ground as judged by race times. That juvenile win is his only success in six starts on what race times indicate was genuinely yielding or softer going.

If I'm right about Binocular needing genuinely good ground then now is probably not the time to be betting him for the Champion Hurdle. Genuinely good or faster ground is hard to come by in the Winter months. So there must be a very good chance that Binocular is going to turn in another sub par run before the ground turns in his favour in the Spring.

KAUTO STAR RAN RIGHT UP TO HIS BEST

Following the Betfair Chase I now know how everyone in Ireland must have felt after Thierry Henry handballed his team's way to victory over the Irish side last week. I made IMPERIAL COMMANDER (45) one of my best bets of the whole year and was devastated when the photo went to Kauto Star.

One reason I was so confident of Imperial Commander is that I was convinced I and many others had tagged him wrongly as a non-stayer.

It was certainly very easy to jump to the conclusion that Imperial Commander didn't stay. After all he'd won seven of the eight times he'd gone less than three miles before the Betfair Chase and lost all six times he's been asked to go three miles plus.

However things didn't look anything like as clear cut when you took a closer look at Imperial Commander.

Watching the video of his win in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival I saw that Imperial Commander took on the very speedy front runner Our Vic and ran him into the ground after less than two miles. He then continued powering away on his own up front and clearly outstayed all his rivals up the stiff finishing hill on yielding ground on one of the stiffest tracks in the country.

Then there was Imperial Commander's physique. He's a tall, very deep chested, long striding sort that looked like a three miler running against two and two and a half milers at Cheltenham. It certainly looked like his jockey rode him to exploit his superior stamina that day.

There were several other things that persuaded me Imperial Commander would stay three miles - and more.

The first was the insistence of his jockey and trainer. The seconds was his pedigree. His three siblings, including his full sister, all won point to points over three miles.

So why had Imperial Commander no wins to his name over longer trips? I'm pretty sure I now know the answer.

I strongly suspect that Imperial Commander flopped at three miles before the Betfair Chase because he'd never been fresh enough to run well at the distance. He'd won all six times he'd come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more but scored just once from eight tries when returned to the races more quickly - as he had for all his three mile efforts.

The field that Imperial Commander beat in the Ryanair was brilliant. So with reasonable doubts existing about Kauto Star I thought he was a fantastic bet at around 10-1.

The race was pretty much a carbon copy of the Ryanair. But this time the front runner that Imperial Commander pressed early wasn't Our Vic, it was another David Pipe inmate Madison Du Berlais. As was the case at Cheltenham, Imperial Commander had the front runner beat with a mile to run and kicked on. He was kicked on into the lead at this point by jockey Paddy Brennan who stole a quick peak back at his rivals and must have liked what he saw.

Ruby Walsh on Kauto Star was clearly getting a bit anxious at this stage and moved his mount up quickly into second, stealing a look of his own back at the other horses as he did so.

Entering the straight it was clear that Imperial Commander was going to take some catching. He was two or three lengths clear and not stopping. But a slow jump two out allowed Kauto Star to catch up, head him narrowly and then forge on two lengths clear. You could see Brennan had a fair bit of horse left under him though, so it wasn't surprising he was able to stage a rally and get back in front just before the line. Unfortunately his head was up and his rivals down as they crossed the line. As a result Kauto Star got the decision.

Make no mistake, this was a huge performance by Imperial Commander, one of the best we've seen over jumps in years. It took a top performance by the very best chaser in the last decade and a lucky head bob to beat him by the narrowest of margins. He had the rest of a high class field 24 lengths and more behind.

The big question now is whether Imperial Commander can reproduce this form in the King George.

If my theory about him needing seven weeks between his runs is correct then the answer has to be 'no' as there's only five weeks between the Betfair Chase and the King George. However most horses that need to be fresh are good for their first two runs of the season, however close together they are. Thereafter they tend to need a break of five weeks, quite often six, but almost never seven or more to run well again.

So why did Imperial Commander run so dreadfully in last year's King George? It was only his second run of the season and came 41 days after the first.

I think there may well be several explanations. One I'm inclined towards is that Imperial Commander is too bit, tall and long striding to handle a tight course like Kempton (he ran below form around the only other tight track he's tried - Aintree).

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies believes that the answer may be Imperial Commander dislikes right-handed tracks. It's a good theory because Imperial Commander ran another clunker the only other time he was asked to go right handed. And this was after a 48 day break at last year's Punchestown Festival.

At this stage it's tough to give a definitive answer as Imperial Commander has run a couple of poor races on left handed tracks too when he's been pretty fresh. And he's never shown a sign of jumping to his right like most horse that prefer going that way do.

If he were mine I'd forget about the King George and shoot for the Lexus Chase instead at left-handed Leopardstown. If he ran a clunker there then we'd at least know for sure it's because he wasn't fresh enough rather than it being due to a dislike of going right-handed. Thereafter I'd lay him off all the way to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. That is the perfect race for Imperial Commander because he's such a great big beast of a horse that showed here he can go a tremendous pace and keep going really strongly in testing conditions. The extended three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham should suit him perfectly.

The key to Imperial Commander is clearly the spacing of his races. This is far from unusual with the best chasers these days. Seven of the last fourteen Cheltenham Gold Cup winners were off for 77 days or more before winning the big race. Another three had a break of 47 days plus.

KAUTO STAR (45) was obviously a bit lucky. Unusually for him, he put in a completely faultless round of jumping whereas his rival made two slight errors. In addition nine times out of ten he would not have had his had all the way down with his rivals head all the way up crossing the line. Then again, champions always find a way to win. And this wasn't the first time Kauto Star has managed to take a race through sheer tenacity that he seemed destined to lose.

The big question to ask with Kauto Star now has to be 'will he hold his form?' French breds like him peak earlier and deteriorate earlier than their British and Irish bred jumping counterparts.

In this regard I think it's instructive to look at the record of French breds that won Grade 1 chases in Britain when they attempted to sustain their form over jumps four or more seasons later - which is what Kauto Star managed here.

Over the last fourteen years there have been fifteen French breds that won Grade 1 chases in Britain that were running four or more seasons after their first success at the top level over fences. Cenkos was the only one to hold his form. He earned Racing Post ratings almost as big as he ever had when winning two unlisted races four years and four years and a month after his first Grade 1 chase win. Thereafter though he failed to reach the first three again in six tries. The other fourteen won just two times out of 59 in their jump starts four seasons and more later. One of the winners was Klairon Davis. He won a three runner unlisted race off an official rating of just 129. The other was Djeddah. He beat three other finishers to win another unlisted chase off a mark of 126. There was one other winner that switched to the flat. This was Or Royal who took a claimer and three class F contests on the All Weather.

When Kauto Star lines won this race it was four seasons after his first Grade 1 chase win, which occurred three years, eleven months and eighteen days before. Will he be able to sustain his form like Cenkos did for one more run? If so he's surely going to take the King George for the fourth time in a row.

It is worth bearing in mind that until Imperial Commander came along Kauto Star was the only jumper to earn a speed rating as high as 45 from me in about a decade. This was the fourth time he's managed it.

There has to be a concern that Kauto Star will 'bounce' as a result of this huge effort, just as he did after running equally fast in the Ascot Chase two seasons ago. But back then it took two back to back fast runs and quick returns at Cheltenham and Aintree to make him run below his best. This time around it will be one fast run and a five week break.

Horses that run really fast do tend to be best when fresh. Both Imperial Commander and Kauto Star demonstrate this. However, of the two, it does seem that Kauto Star is the most likely to be able to reproduce this form at Kempton.

If Kauto Star and Imperial Commander fail to fire at Kempton then third placed MADISON DU BERLAIS (37) may well be the one to take advantage.

You could argue that Madison Du Berlais was disappointing here because he got beat 24 lengths. But this is the norm for him first time out. On the three previous seasonal debuts Madison du Berlais has made in Britain he's run eighth by 37 lengths, fourth by 14.75 lengths and sixth by 30.75 lengths. Third by 24 in one of the fastest chases ever is an improvement.

Madison du Berlais is a greedy feeder at home according to his trainer David Pipe. This explains why he has lost all six of his seasonal debuts to date.

In the early stages Madison Du Berlais was rather too keen for his own good, as horses often are when they're unfit. It was tremendous that he was able to go such a strong pace for so long and still hang on for third.

I'm sure David Pipe is right to say Madison du Berlais needs a relatively flat course to produce his best. But outside of Newbury, all his wins above 0-125 class have come on tight tracks. He's lost the last sixteen times he's run above 0-125 class on galloping courses other than Newbury.

I confess that it seems odd Madison du Berlais has won three from four at Newbury, a two mile oval, and scored all five times he's run on tight tracks barring his first completed UK start which he surely needed. You'd think he'd either prefer tight courses or galloping ones. But perhaps there's some aspect of Newbury's configuration that makes Madison du Berlais suited to the course - something that's normally only present around a tight course. I can't say. But that zero for sixteen record elsewhere in better races at other galloping tracks plus the fact he always needs his first run tells me he's going to make serious improvement from this race on a galloping course first time to the King George around the tight, dead flat course at Kempton.

HALCON GENELARDAIS (37) ran a big race over a trip that was too short and on ground that was too fast. The going was clearly only barely good to soft rather than the heavy predicted only a day before as Kauto Star was only 9.3 seconds off the track record. I'd actually call it good to yielding. So it's not surprising this dour stayer was under pressure to keep up from a long way out.

Halcon Genelardais has now been outpaced and outrun all five times he's taken on Gold Cup horses in conditions chases. It's clear he's a good marathon runner but lacks the pace to win a race this good over only three miles.

The trouble is there are no big conditions chases run in Britain or Ireland beyond three and a quarter miles. All the valuable chases over longer trips are handicaps. So the connections of Halcon Genelardais face the unenviable choice of running him against Gold Cup horses over inadequate distances at level weights or asking him to give enormous amounts of weight away in handicaps. It's no wonder he hasn't managed a win since 2006.

There is a third choice though, and that is to aim Halcon Genelardais at Europe's most valuable conditions chase, the Grand Steeplechase de Paris at Auteuil in June. That race is run over 3m 5f and is very often run on soft or heavy ground.

Personally I wouldn't just take Halcon Genelardais to the Grand Steeplechase cold. I'd want to give him a run or two first around Auteuil's unique course. It features a variety of obstacles, including a brick wall, a double ditch and one fence that's around six feet tall. So it would surely take a British or Irish chaser at least one race to adapt to it.

Even if Halcon Genelardais lost the Grand Steeplechase de Paris, the experience of tackling Auteuil would surely give him a big shot of landing the track's other big staying conditions chase the Prix la Haye Jousselin next November over 3m 3f 110y. If he stays in Britain I suspect he'll never win again.

It's unfortunate that the connections of NOTRE PERE (29) were misled by the inaccurate going reports into running their charge on ground that was too fast for him. It was inevitable he'd get outpaced over three miles on such a quick surface. He's dreadfully one-paced and needs really testing ground to pull him into a race.

Notre Pere did win a race as a novice on good to yielding ground. But there was an insanely fast early pace that day which left everything legless and brought Notre Pere's bottomless stamina into play. He still only won by a head from a rival that's now lost eleven in a row.

On soft and heavy ground Notre Pere remains a tough horse to beat. Throw out his seasonal debuts (which he tends to need) and his chase form shows five wins from six completed starts and a second in a Grade 1 in his sole loss.

It's interesting to note that Notre Pere has lost all eight times he's run in races with less than twelve runners. The form figures for Notre Pere's last seven races where he's encountered soft or heavy ground in fields of twelve or more read 1121111. His sole loss came on his seasonal debut which, as I've mentioned he usually needs.

I'd say the reason Notre Pere has done so well in big fields is because they ensure a strong pace. I’m confident he'd show his best from in a strongly run race on soft or heavy ground even in a tiny field.

DIAMOND HARRY LOOKING GOOD FOR RSA CHASE

It seems clear that we're in an interregnum, a period between reigns, as far as the top three mile chasers are concerned. The old guard, led by Denman and Kauto Star, are still there but won't be for much longer. Several bright new prospects are shaping up to take their place. One of them is undoubtedly DIAMOND HARRY (40).

Diamond Harry put up a terrific performance to win a strongly run 3m 1f fixed brush handicap hurdle at Haydock from a decent field in very good time last Saturday. An idea of how good can be gained from the fact they completed the last 1m 7f of his race just 5.1 seconds slower than the runners in the good two mile Conditions hurdle did on the same card. They should have gone seven seconds slower when you take account of the extra distance if the races were of the same class. This indicates that Diamond Harry put up another really fast time.

Diamond Harry was always swinging along, racing keenly just off the leaders and cruised into the lead when allowed to do so entering the straight. He never had to be asked a question thereafter. His jockey was able to sit stock still as the runner up Burton Port was vigorously ridden in an effort to try and tackle him.

It should be said that Diamond Harry's jockey Timmy Murphy made very good use of a loose horse in the closing stages, allowing it to lead his mount all the way to the line. This prevented Diamond Harry from idling or going left as he had before when clear in the closing stages.

For a horse that stays so well Diamond Harry has plenty of speed. Obviously he's a keen, buzzy sort that keeps himself fit through nervous energy and needs to be kept fresh to produce his best form.

Trainer Nick Williams refused to be drawn on whether Diamond Harry would go back to ordinary hurdles or move up to fences for the rest of the season. This led to market moves for him in both the RSA Chase and World Hurdle.

Personally I suspect the RSA Chase is the more likely objective. After all trainers tend to have chasing in mind when they run a horse over fixed brush hurdles as the obstacles are basically mini-fences. In addition the alternative engagement Diamond Harry held before this race was the Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase. So clearly he's been schooled over fences.

In any event Diamond Harry has any amount of ability. You'd have to be pretty brave to bet against him over three miles.

Runner up BURTON PORT (39) is obviously a useful horse in his own right. He moved well while held up early and tried really hard to get to the winner from the last but simply couldn't get him off the bit.

It looks like Burton Port is best fresh. That is on his first two starts of the season or with a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter. He'd won all four of his completed starts when fresh in this way before and ran a seriously big race here in defeat.

Even if his record didn't say as much I'd be inclined to say Burton Port would need a break anyway following a race as tough as this one.

Seeing that he's already won a novice chase over 2m 5f and is very leniently handicapped the logical target for Burton Port is the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. If he were mine I'd be inclined to keep him to handicap hurdles before then to protect his handicap mark and only run him once or twice before the big meeting.

Third placed LYSANDER (38) is ten years old but has done nothing but improve in his last five starts. His connections can surely exploit his very low official rating to win a valuable handicap chase over three miles plus sometime soon.

POSSOL IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

A lot of people were raving about the performance of Zaynar at Ascot last weekend. But the clock shows that POSSOL (39) put up a much better performance.

There was only a short run to the first in Zaynar's race. It took about fourteen seconds to reach it. So it's a very fair comparison to put the time Possol took from the same jump to the finish in his race run over two and a half furlongs longer.

Zaynar took 4m 20.5 seconds to get from the first jump to the finish. Possol took 4m 19.8 seconds from the same obstacle - and he'd run two and a half furlongs longer than Zaynar before he reached it.

There's no way the pace was slow in Zaynar's race. Front running Lough Derg went his usual strong gallop and had several of his rivals on the stretch right from the start. The pace wasn't so strong it collapsed either as Zaynar was visibly still full of run at the finish. The simple fact of the matter is that Possol is a significantly better horse. That's what the clock says.

Possol moved strongly in third, moved smoothly to dispute the lead on the far side and soon put his rivals away entering the straight to win full of running.

It was impressive how well Possol jumped. The only time a hurdle moved as he jumped it was two out when he was being asked to stretch clear. Otherwise he pinged them all.

Having seen how Possol lost ground so rapidly on the downhill run before the homestraight at Cheltenham last year before rallying I suspect he's not at his best on steeply undulating courses like Cheltenham and Chepstow. He's won three out of four over three miles plus on other courses and run second in the Racing Post Chase in his sole loss.

I recognise that Possol is being kept to hurdles simply to protect his handicap mark over fences for the Grand National. But my ratings say he could actually win a very good race over timber.

Possol runs with such energy that I'm strongly inclined to believe he's going to prove best when fresh. So I'd like to see him given five weeks plus between his runs once he's had his second run of the season. I'm fervently hoping he's given a really big race to shoot for over hurdles next time as he'd surely start odds on if he ran in another ungraded novice event such as this.

ARKOSE (36) pulled clear of the rest as he tried to get to the winner but was simply outclassed. Nonetheless he ran a very decent race. He'd won his tow previous starts under rules and looks a good bet to go in again next time.

FIX THE RIB NOT FAR OFF THE BEST TWO MILERS

FIX THE RIB (41) put up a terrific front running performance to win a valuable handicap chase at Ascot and is not far off the very best two milers on my ratings.

After rather scrambling over two of the first three jumps, Fix The Rib jumped the rest accurately at a scorching pace. Approaching the homestraight he really poured it on and powered ten lengths clear. He began to tire a little approaching the last but kept on well to score by four and a half lengths.

Fix The Rib must go right handed, so his next target is the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas at Kempton. He'll have a good shot there. But personally I'd have liked to see him shoot for the Tingle Creek run around Sandown which rewards his attacking front running style more than Kempton. Still, wherever he goes Fix The Rib will be hard to beat. He's won five of his six chase starts and looks capable of taking another big race or two before the season is over.

Runner Up MASTER MEDIC (39) is another right hand only horse. He got outpaced around halfway but stayed on all the way up the straight. He's already won over two and a half miles and I'd say he needs that trip to produce his very best now he's racing in his own class.

PRESVIS HAS GOOD WARM UP FOR HONG KONG

PRESVIS (37) ran a perfectly respectable trial for the Hong Kong Cup when second in a Listed race at Lingfield. Trainer Luca Cumani had warned he would need the run. In addition it looked to me that Presvis wasn't suited by the tight turns and short homestraight. He flew home as usual but got going way too late to trouble the winner.

While he clearly has a big chance in Hong Kong this run raised major doubts about how well Presvis will be suited by the new Tapeta track at Meydan if he targets the Dubai World Cup next year. The new Meydan Tapeta course is less than nine furlongs in circumference and features a homestraight of only two furlongs, a furlong less than the old Nad Al Sheba or Sha Tin where Presvis won the QEII Cup earlier this year.

TRANQUIL SEA PROBABLY NEEDS A BREAK NOW

After he'd won so well on his seasonal debut I came up with a theory that the poor form TRANQUIL SEA (39) showed for most of last season was due to the fact that he was racing over too long a trip.

Now, following his win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, and an explanation from trainer Edward O'Grady, the real reason is clear. Apparently the horse took a bad fall at home last year after being spooked by a pigeon. O Grady told reporters "He stood in his box for three months, and he was brilliant in his first start last year, but maybe because he hadn't had a full summer's grass he trained off very quickly."

In the Paddy Power Gold Cup Tranquil Sea jumped well and was always traveling better than any of his rivals. He ended up winning well, though I rate his performance a little behind what he achieved first time out.

Seeing how he trained off after his first start last year but bounced back off a break to run second at the Punchestown Festival I suspect that Tranquil Sea is now in need of a rest. A lot of two and two and a half mile chasers are best on their first two starts each season and then need at least five weeks off to run well again. I'd bet on Tranquil Sea running to this pattern now that he's out of the novice ranks. The fact that the always seems to run fast strengthens my belief in the idea that he'll be best fresh. In my experience most horses that habitually run fresh do best when kept fresh.

With the right sort of preparation I can very well see Tranquil Sea fulfilling O'Grady's ambitions of winning the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

DON'T PUSH IT A SERIOUS GRAND NATIONAL PROSPECT

I suggested after his seasonal debut that DON'T PUSH IT (39) would do much better over a longer trip. He proved me right by staying on tremendously well in the valuable Servo Trophy over nearly three and a half miles at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He fairly stormed home from the last but couldn't quite get here, losing by a rapidly diminishing half length.

Don't Push It was hunted around by Tony McCoy in last place for most of the race but moved up smoothly coming down the hill approaching the third last. Unfortunately he collided in mid air with Russian Trigger jumping that fence and was turned sideways on landing. He had to get going again and did so in style. But for the mishap he would surely have won.

I liked the way Don't Push It navigated his way through traffic, recovered so well from being hampered and stayed on strongly in what was a stamina-sapping race. I can easily picture him doing very well in the Grand National after this performance. Indeed I'd say he's the best Grand National prospect we've seen so far this season.

Don't Push It certainly looks the best Grand National prospect Jonjo O'Neill has had since Clan Royal who ran second and third in the Aintree marathon. Clan Royal was given a very light campaign both seasons he placed in the race and was switched back to hurdles to protect his handicap mark, just as many of the top Irish candidates for the big race are. So I'd bet on Jonjo going the same route with Don't Push It who actually showed smart form over timber last term when he ran second to Fair Along and Big Buck's, two of the top staying hurdlers.

The winner, GALANT BUIT (39) is only five and doesn't really have the physique for jumping around Aintree, at least not at this stage. But he clearly improved for the big step up in trip and will be a top candidate for the Eider when he returns after a planned rest.

The other horse to take out of the race has to be RUSSIAN TRIGGER (38). He'd improved tremendously when stepped up to long distances to win the Kent and Midlands National. Here he got stretched when the gallop increased after halfway but rallied when his stamina started to kick in. He came off best in the mid air collision between himself and Don't Push It at the third last, but it clearly didn't help his chances. He did well to keep on so well and finish a close fourth. He'll surely be winning another marathon chase sooner rather than later.

MAHOGANY BLAZE LOOKS GOOD FOR THE DESERT ORCHID CHASE

WELL CHIEF (41) clocked a very decent time when winning the first running of the valuable Connaught Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting. And he did look to have a bit in hand. He was almost three lengths clear coming to the line when jockey Timmy Murphy stopped riding and this allowed runner up MAHAGOANY BLAZE (40) to close the gap to a length and a quarter.

David Pipe had said before the race that Well Chief was in exceptionally good form. This is the norm for top two mile chasers first time out, most of whom are best fresh. Indeed you only have to look at Well Chief's record to know this was likely to be the case here. He's now won eight of his ten jump starts when he's come into the race off a break of five weeks or more since his last completed start. One of his losses was a head defeat when he made a hash of a fence. The other was that bang up second to Master Minded off a two year break in last year's Champion Chase.

Well Chief did win a couple of races as a novice when he didn't have a break of five weeks or more since his last completed start. But his form figures since then off a shorter break read 3F2F. This being so, I'd be inclined to side against him if he's brought back quickly for the Tingle Creek. If he were mine I'd be giving him just the one run around Christmas before going for the Champion Chase in March.

Mahogany Blaze stayed on strongly to finish second, equaling his best ever performance on my ratings. He does lack a bit of acceleration which explains why he's won only one of his last fifteen starts.

I suspect that Mahogany Blaze is at his best over really stiff fences because they counteract his lack of pace. The ones that claim the highest percentage of fallers in Britain are those at Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster and Kempton. He's won two of the three times he's run over fences at these tracks. In his sole loss he was staying on and probably would have finished second in a very fast Grade 1 at Aintree but for falling three out.

The obvious target for Mahogany Blaze just has to be the Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas at Kempton. He's romped home by big margins both times he's tackled the big black fences at the course. The other option would be to run him in Ireland where the fences are stiffer than Britain.

Paul Nicholls had warned beforehand that MASTER MINDED (39) would need the run. And I think I may know the reason why. I suspect it relates to the fact that Master Minded had won four Grade 1 chases in a row.

Over the last fourteen years only one horse other than Master Minded has won four Grade 1 chases in a row. This was Kicking King. He started at 3/10 to win his seasonal debut following his big sequence and lost.

Patterns like this tend to repeat themselves. When a horse attempts something that's never been done before it's usually very hard to achieve for some reason or another. In this case, I suspect that Master Minded needed to be given a longer break than normal to recover from those four big wins. A Grade 1 win really takes it out of a horse. Four in a row has to be tough on their constitution.

This being so I think it's significant that Nicholls steered Master Minded towards this race rather than some more established Grade 1 or 2 for his seasonal debut. This, plus those stats for Grade 1 winners suggested his statement about the horse needing the run was spot on. I suspect that Nicholls was hoping to be able to give Master Minded an easy win first time in a soft race by going for an ungraded contest. It didn't turn out that way.

Master Minded was a bit nervous before the race, as is often the case with horses that need the run. And he showed his lack of race-readiness quite early in the contest when ballooning the first open ditch. He took the fence with feet to spare, something he'd never normally do

I know that it looked bad when Master Minded tired pretty badly in the closing stages. But he still only got beat four lengths, and he thing to bear in mind is that he is an out and out two miler. We've seen previously in France and Britain that over two and a half miles if he runs out of puff he runs nowhere near his best form. This may not have been two and a half miles but it was soft ground, the track was very testing and it looks clear he was not fully fit.

Most likely Master Minded will bounce back to form in the Tingle Creek next time. But it's clear that this season he is not going to have an easy time retaining his two mile crown. Well Chief is back, Big Zeb is looking a serious threat, and the season has barely started.

TATANIANO SHOWS HE CAN HANDLE MUD

TATANIANO (36) had hosed up on his chasing debut at Exeter. On his second start over fences at Cheltenham he cruised along in the lead at a good pace, jumping well all the way.

It looked like we were going to learn just how good Tataniano is with three to jump because the Irish raider Fosters Cross was going well in second place. Unfortunately Fosters Cross unseated his rider there, leaving Tataniano to come home much more comfortably than he otherwise would have.

It's tough to know exactly how fast Tataniano would have run if Fosters Cross had been there to press him. But he came home 1.4 seconds slower than Well Chief did in the same race from the fourth last and ended up clocking a final time 2.1 seconds slower. So a fair guess is that he'd have come home just a bit slower than Well Chief (since novices do tend to finish a little slower than experienced Grade 1 chasers). This suggests he'd have equaled the speed rating of 38 I gave him for his debut win.

The big plus about this run is that it showed Tataniano can handle mud which didn't seem certain beforehand. But my feeling is that he's got it all to do in the Arkle if Sizing Europe is kept to two miles and goes for that race.

FOSTERS CROSS keeps running one big race after another. He was bidding for four in a row here. It's hard to say what would have happened if he hadn't blundered and unshipped his rider. But the fact that Tataniano hadn't been asked a question while he was forced into that error tells me he'd have run second (my guess is by a couple of lengths).

Before his last couple of starts Fosters Cross had been thought of as a good ground performer by trainer Thomas Mullins. It has to be a fair possibility that he still does prefer a quicker surface despite this good run and his win in that Grade 3 at Galway. After all he's won three of his four hurdle and chase starts on good or faster ground but just one from nine on a slower surface.

MONEY TRIX HAS A REAL SHOT IN LEXUS IF IT'S MUDDY

Graduation Chases are invariably hot contests, especially the one run at Carlisle in November. That proved the case once more this year when MONEY TRIX (40) ran out a six length winner in fast time.

The gallop was unrelenting right from the start. But Money Trix had no trouble, sitting a few lengths off the lead just lobbing along and jumping faultlessly. He made his only mistake when diving at the second last when tackling the leaders. But he landed running and rolled clear up the run in to keep up the gallop.

Money Trix is a horse with any amount of ability. He's finished second in a Grade 1 and might well have won all his other eight starts if one had been longer and he had jumped better in the other two. He is a heavy topped horse that broke down so badly he had to be of for nearly two years. So he's been kept to yielding and soft ground.

Four runs back Money Trix 'lost his confidence' according to his trainer when falling at Newbury. So it was a good idea running him in a relatively small field over the very easy fences at Carlisle (they claim the lowest percentage of fallers of any UK track). But clearly he has his confidence back as he jumped really well at a strong pace here.

The time that Money Trix clocked puts him in the ballpark of what's required to win the Lexus at Leopardstown which is apparently his next target. Seeing how he was going on so strongly at the finish here I'd say he has a real shot in that race if comes up soft. And if it was genuinely heavy on the big day I'd be wary of opposing him.

I really liked the way COMPANERO (38) kept on so strongly for second after setting a strong gallop up front. He was clearly a bit outclassed by the winner. But the distance was surely on the short side for him as he is a deep-chested sort with a long stride that shows knee action. He's all about stamina rather than speed.

Companero had won eight of his ten previous starts (including point to points). And his two losses clearly resulted from being unable to cope with a quickening gallop off a slow early pace. This was surely why his jockey was so keen to make this race a real test of stamina.

It's perfectly possible that the handicapper is going to jack Companero's official mark up by around a stone to about 150 as a result of this big run. That's what the clock and lines of form say is the correct move. But in my experience official handicappers tend to be conservative and only increase a horse's mark a bit at a time. If that is the case with Companero his connections will surely want to exploit the situation by running him in a big staying handicap.

The race I've got my eye on for Companero is the Welsh Grand National. But his presence in any big handicap chase over three and a half miles plus where he gets the soft ground he needs will interest me greatly.

LODGE LANE (38) had compromised his chances in his previous five chase starts with bad jumping. But he's clearly been rigorously re-schooled in the off season as he fairly pinged all the jumps here and ran straight as a die, keeping on well when the winner blew past.

However I think it's worth bearing in mind that there were only seven runners in this race and that the fences were very easy. Lodge Lane is rather light-framed for chasing. Over stiffer jumps and in a larger field I'd still worry about his jumping. I'd also be concerned about his ability to give chunks of weight away to bigger, stronger rivals in a handicap. If he were mine I'd try to keep him to Conditions Chases.

Gold Cup sixth ROLL ALONG (26) was a warm favourite. This is understandable as he'd won on all five of his previous seasonal debuts. But the ting to bear in mind is that he has just moved to Nigel Twiston-Davies who seems to bring his new recruits along slowly when they're high class horses like Roll Along. Over the last fourteen years he's had sixteen horses make their first start for him in class 1 & 2 contests that made their latest start for another trainer. All sixteen lost.

I suspect that we're now going to see a different Roll Along. Previously it looked like he was best fresh. And there were doubts about whether he really stayed three miles. Now though, under Twiston-Davies' care, I'd bet on him running to his best when he's had a recent run. In addition, seeing how he was clearly stretched by the strong early gallop here, I now reckon he's going to prove best at three and a quarter miles, maybe even more. His best ever run in the Gold Cup came over that trip.

I don't know for sure whether Roll Along can handle soft ground over fences. You could argue that he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to clear the bigger jumps effectively. Certainly his two chase wins to date have been on ground race times indicate was good. Maybe he looked sketchy at several jumps her because he was having trouble jumping out of the soft ground. It's a tough call at this stage, but my feeling is he'll be fine on soft ground in future when he's had a more recent run.

PLANET OF SOUND SMART ON BIG COURSES

Jumping the last in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter PLANET OF SOUND (41) looked to have a real fight on his hands to beat CORNAS (41). But he showed tremendous stamina to power away on the run in and score by nearly four lengths.

It seems a logical conclusion from the way he stayed on so well that two and a half miles is going to prove the right trip for Planet Of Sound in future. His connections clearly think so.

The one concern I have with Planet Of Sound right now is the worrying possibility that he needs really big courses like Exeter to produce his best form. If he hadn't jumped poorly in one of his early starts and pulled hard in another when running second Planet Of Sound would probably have won all seven times he's run on tracks that are two miles in circumference. He's lost his other six starts.

That said, Planet Of Sound has run over what are probably inadequate distances so far. Therefore I'm hesitant to read too much into his form right now.

Cornas looked likely to give the winner a great deal to do at the last. And it may well be that he's best at shorter trips than the 2m 1.5f he ran over here. The way that he has been placed certainly suggests his connections are convinced he's best going right handed and doesn't stay an inch beyond two miles. Indeed his two wins have come around dead flat, tight, right handed tracks over the minimum distance. They seem to seek out races like that, even taking him to Ireland last time to find them. Back over the absolute minimum distance I can see him improving on this effort, and that means he is by no means a longshot to win something like the Tingle Creek.

TWIST MAGIC (38) is even more of a confirmed short runner than Cornas. So he did well to take third over such a long distance. At two miles he's a very useful horse, especially when the early pace isn't that strong. As I've said before, if there were only 1m 6f chases he's be almost unstoppable.

Further back in the field I liked the way OH CRICK (33) ran. He looked to be a bit too keen for his own good off a seven month break and struggled to clear a few of the jumps out of the soft ground.

Oh Crick won one race narrowly against bad opposition on soft ground where his jockey said he hated the surface. But he has a fast ground action and all his six subsequent wins have been on ground race times indicate was good or faster.

The other thing that seems to drive Oh Crick's form is that he needs a recent run. He's run well below his best all four times he's come into a race off a long break as he did here. This leads me to suspect he's not a natural two mile chaser as such horses are invariably best fresh. I think we'll be seeing Oh Crick do best over two and a half miles this term. He's a useful horse when he gets his ground and has had a recent run.

I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (33) also went well for a long way in unfavourable conditions.

Trainer Paul Nicholls says that I'msingingtheblues is a keen going sort that only just gets two miles and that this is why he tries to keep him to dead flat tracks and fast ground. He's very smart when he gets his conditions. In fact he's won five of the six times he's run on flat tracks when race times have indicated the going was good or faster.

I'msingingtheblues did win at Cheltenham, obviously a stiff track, back in 2007. But that was in a pretty small field off a rather ordinary early pace on fast ground. He's tired up the steep uphill finish the four subsequent times he ran there.

NACARAT (24) ran really well for a long way, setting a good pace until they started running downhill approaching the straight whereupon he lost ground rapidly.

The two things that everybody knows about Nacarat is that he's best fresh and simply must be run on a dead flat track. He was fresh here but the track was undulating. I thought it might just suit him as it doesn't have such a steep downhill section as Cheltenham where Nacarat's stride has twice gone to pieces causing him to be pulled up (he's straight through the shoulder and probably hits the ground too hard to run downhill effectively). But clearly the downhill gradient found him out once more here.

Back on a flat track, I'd bet on Nacarat bouncing back to form.

GREAT HENNESSY TRIAL BY THE TOTHER ONE

Fourteen of the last fifteen winners of Newbury's Hennessy Gold Cup had these things in common;

* They had won at least half of eleven or fewer completed

chase starts - or would have if one photo had gone the other way.

* They'd finished first or second in all their completed chase starts that season.

* If they hadn't run that season they'd won or run second on their last seasonal debut.

* They'd finished first or second in a chase that is today worth at least 20,000 pounds

or would have done but for falling or unseating.

If past renewals are anything to go by THE TOTHER ONE (37) will be one of only two or three horses in this year's Hennessy to match this profile. And he certainly looks a very strong contender following his seasonal debut second in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton.

For most of the race The Tother One lobbed along at the back, moving comfortably. But towards the end of the backstraight his jockey Ruby Walsh clearly became alive to the fact that eventual winner Ellerslie George (38) was loose on the lead and in danger of slipping the field. He nudged his mount along and The Tother One responded with a big move to quickly surge forward into second. But he was still ten lengths adrift of the Ellerslie George who was not stopping.

All the way up the straight The Tother One wore away at the winner's lead and had cut the deficit to just a length and a half at the line. Around the more galloping course at Newbury and with an extra furlong to travel he looks likely to improve on this effort.

Prior to this run The Tother One had won all six of his completed starts below Grade 1 class. And he'd run third in his two outings at the highest level. Clearly he's a smart horse. He certainly stays well and has a good turn of foot for a staying chaser. The 10-1 you can get about him for the Hennessy looks a pretty good price to me.