RYANAIR MAY BE BETTER TARGET FOR MASTER MINDED THIS TIME

I share the widespread view that Tony McCoy is the best national hunt jockey of recent years. But he surely made a tactical error when setting a modest gallop then asking Sun Alliance Chase winner ALBERTAS RUN to outsprint the dual Two Mile Champion Chase winner Master Minded from six out in the Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot. The result was that Albertas Run was stretched into falling at the third last. He would surely have done better to set a stronger gallop in an effort to test the suspect stamina of his rival.

It certainly looked like Master Minded was about to get the better of Albertas Run when he fell. But it's impossible to be definitive about this because the real test would have come in the final furlong or so, and Master Minded was heavily eased in this section of the race so his stamina wasn't tested.

Albertas Run obviously has trouble jumping fences out of soft ground. All his chase wins have been on ground that race times indicate was good or faster.

At trips short of 3m 1f Albertas Run has a terrific record on good ground over fences, and hurdles too come to that. His form figures on ground that race times indicate was good over hurdles and fences read 111112111F. His sole loss before this was his lifetime best effort when second to the brilliant Kauto Star in what I rated the joint fastest chase run in the last decade, the 2008 King George. It would have been no disgrace to finish second to another brilliant rival in this contest. Whenever he gets his ground in future Albertas Run will clearly be tough to beat. If he were mine I'd be inclined to lay him off to the Spring to avoid the soft winter ground that's caused him to run below his best before. Though I have to say from a punting viewpoint I wouldn't mind seeing him run a couple of clunkers on unsuitably soft ground between now and then to build up his odds.

You can argue that MASTER MINDED (43) was basically untested in this race because the early pace was modest and when Albertas Run fell he was left to beat the non-stayer I'msingingtheblues. However when you time his race up to the least fence from the same point they started in the 2m 1f chase on the same card he actually went fast enough to take a Grade 3. And if you use my sectional timing formula to adjust his speed rating by taking account of the sprint from six out he merits a rating one point higher than I've ever given him before.

I concede that my sectional timing formula can produce an aberrant rating occasionally. But in this instance my suspicion is that it's correct. Having spent much of last season suggesting Master Minded had deteriorated and that his bid to win a third Champion was doomed Chase I'm now saying he's better than ever.

My thinking is that the wind operation Master Minded had before this season has improved or at least altered him. I now suspect he's going to prove better at longer distances than two miles.

The way this race was run hardly proves that Master Minded truly stayed the distance of 2m 3f. But he was moving so well at every stage that I'm compelled to believe he would have won well even if Albertas Run had set a searching gallop right from the start.

I know that Master Minded has failed to stay two and a half miles in the past. However there has to be a good chance that was simply because he wasn't getting quite enough oxygen in the closing stages - a problem that may well have been fixed thanks to the breathing operation.

There has always been plenty of evidence that Master Minded should stay longer trips.

First of all he's built more like a two and a half or three mile horse. He's bred that way too. One of his siblings, Hautclan, ran third in the Midlands Grand National. Another, Lucky To Be, has just finished third in a 2m 6f Grade 1 in France as a four year old.

It's also worth pointing out that Master Minded doesn't increase his speed but risk falling or unseating by hurdling his fences like most top two mile chasers such as Big Zeb and Moscow Flyer. He often clears his fences with feet to spare and has completed the course in his last twelve starts. In addition he hasn't shown definitively that he's best fresh as most top class two mile chasers are.

In fact there has to be a possibility that Master Minded now wants longer than two miles to produce his best and that this rather than any breathing problem was the cause of his sub par season last term.

It is not that uncommon for chasers to lose speed and add stamina with age. The best example of this was Desert Orchid. His first ten wins came over two miles or two miles and a furlong. But he lost the four times he cut back to the minimum trip in the latter part of his career because he seemed to have lost the speed to be fully effective over the distance - despite his brilliance over longer.

The real test will come next time out in the Tingle Creek where Master Minded is likely to be taken along at a terrific gallop over the two miles. If he flounders there and trainer Paul Nicholls says it's because he now wants a longer distance I'm going to believe him.

Eventual runner up I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (32) seemed to finally blow the idea of him staying beyond 2m 1f out of the water by the way he finished so tired. He's a useful performer over the minimum distance and will surely win something decent when he's cut back to it. Though most likely he now needs a break to freshen him up.

KING GEORGE SURELY NOT THE RIGHT RACE FOR IMPERIAL COMMANDER

George Santayana wrote that "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." I fear this will prove the case for the connections of IMPERIAL COMMANDER (43) who is now heading for the King George once more despite having floundered in the same race last year.

Imperial Commander showed that he's as good as ever by storming clear in the Betfair Chase before tiring late and perhaps idling a little in the final strides when his jockey stopped riding.

I can always be wrong. But it seems unlikely to me that such a big, strong, long striding horse should be able to act well around tight turns. He's been beaten by wide margins all four times he's tried.

It also seems pretty clear from Imperial Commander's form that he's best off longer breaks than the five weeks he'll have before the King George. If that unlucky head bob against Kauto Star had gone the other way he would have won all nine times he's come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more . He's only won a minor race in eight tries when returning to the races more quickly.

Runner up TIDAL BAY (43) is a pig of a horse to predict. He trailed the field early, clambering over several of the fences as he often has in the past. But he stayed on tremendously well in the closing stages and was catching Imperial Commander quickly in the last half dozen strides.

Tidal Bay has won just one of his last twelve races but showed here and when winning the Cleeve Hurdle in January that he's one of the best horses in training over both hurdles and fences.

Seeing that he's such a big, muscle-bound, cumbersome beast of a horse that's all about strength rather than speed it could well be Tidal Bay is best dropped out in the closing stages over longer distances or stiff tracks and on testing ground. It may also be that he's best fresh - that is on his first two runs of the season and with a five week plus break thereafter. That's what his form since his novice days seems to suggest.

PLANET OF SOUND (40) moved well in the early stages and looked a threat when closing up to take closer order. But he couldn't quite go with the first two in the closing stages. Nonetheless this was a big run, close to his best on my ratings.

Last season Planet Of Sound failed to rise at the fifth fence, ploughed through it and went crashing to the ground in a fast, ugly looking fall in the Ascot Chase. After that run I suggested it could well be he needs a really huge track with long straight sections to get into a decent rhythm.

This still looks a decent theory judged by Planet Of Sound's record.

If he hadn't jumped poorly in one of his early starts and pulled hard in another when running second Planet Of Sound would probably have won all eight times he's run on tracks that are two miles in circumference. He's lost his other ten starts.

Haydock is a 1m 5f oval with a long homestraight so it makes sense Planet Of Sound should run close to his best there. However if my theory is right he will run a clunker next time out around the much tighter track at Kempton Park.

Fourth placed NACARAT (39) finished nearly a dozen lengths behind and was has beaten from quite some way out. He has earned solid Grade 2 speed ratings from me on several occasions and did so once more here. There is however a real question about whether he's good enough to win a Grade 1.

In this regard it's worrying to note that Nacarat has lost all seven times he's faced one or more rivals with official ratings higher than 160 and won the last three times he hasn't. He's been beaten all four times he's run in Grade 1 races and been hammered in the last three.

WHAT A FRIEND (38) was cruising for a long way but fell apart in the closing stages. He's a horse that has to be ridden very carefully as he hates coming under pressure too early. That was hard to avoid on such a big, galloping course.

Due his character it seems likely that What A Friend is best on tighter tracks or ones with relatively short homestraights. He's won all four times he's run on tight courses and scored his sole big win on a galloping track at Leopardstown where the homestraight is only two and a half furlongs. If I'm right he should bounce back to his best whether he goes for a repeat win in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown next time or stays at home for the King George.

I thought ATOUCHBETWEENACARA (22) was a live outsider, and he certainly moved really well and jumped boldly while setting the pace for a long way. But he clearly failed to stay the three miles.

A couple of things are obvious about Atouchbetweenacara. The first is that he jumped left in the Racing Post Chase and clearly prefers left-handed courses. The second is that he's best fresh.

However I think the real key to understanding Atouchbetweenacara can be found in the video of his run in the Tommy Whittle Chase nearly two years ago.

Approaching the first fence in that race Atouchbetweenacara was content to relax and lob along in last place. Then D'Argent jumped the fence right, collided with Wild Cane Ridge in mid-air and fell right under Atouchbetweenacara. He had to swerve to avoid him.

This incident got Atouchbetweenacara worked up. He quickly pulled his way to the leaders and was racing very keenly.

The interesting thing is that when this happened Atouchbetweenacara's jockey switched the horse to race alongside the rail, four or five horse widths from the other runners. He clearly believed it was the crowding that had agitated Atouchbetweenacara and that racing away from the other runners would calm him down. I say this because the other jockeys were avoiding the rail due to the ground being softer there - as they invariably do at Haydock when it's soft. His rider had to have a very good reason for taking him there.

Sure enough, after about a mile Atouchbetweenacara calmed down a bit. He was still kept to the inside and pulled his way to the front with about a mile to go. But he was moving so well he looked to have the race won turning into the homestraight.

Disaster occurred three out when Atouchbetweenacara's rider, clearly intent on saving his mount's depleted energy for the closing stages, allowed three rivals to range upsides. This looked to put Atouchbetweenacara off as he failed to rise at the fence, hit it full on with his chest and lost masses of momentum and the lead. He fell back into fourth. Remarkably he managed to get back into the lead between the last two and forge clear again. But on the run in, the combined effects of pulling hard, racing on softer ground than his rivals and that juddering blunder caught up with him and he slowed to a walk, allowing Malko de Balmont to catch and beat him two lengths.

That run suggests Atouchbetweenacara gets agitated when he experiences crowding in a race and that his jockey is aware of this.

Most likely this stems from the horse's experience first time out when he fell in a point to point. That race taught him a bad lesson and he's afraid of repeating the fall. Unfortunately his response of trying to accelerate his way out of trouble when he feels crowded has led him to take some fences too fast or in a panic and produced three subsequent falls -which no doubt has reinforced the behaviour.

It looks probable that unless he's in a low class race where the runners quickly get spread out Atouchbetweenacara needs a small field to avoid getting crowded. Thirteen runners is certainly too big as he charged off at an astonishing pace in a thirteen runner race for the Racing Post Chase. Eleven runners is probably on the edge of what he can handle judged by what happened to him in the eleven runner Tommy Whittle. But we know for sure he can handle nine runners very effectively because he simply ran away with the nine runner Grade 2 Silver Trophy at Cheltenham last year.

In that race Atouchbetweenacara jumped boldly and came further and further ahead to clock a proper Grade 1 time.

It could well be that Atouchbetweenacara needs good ground to produce that level of performance. But he should still be fresh as this was effectively only his first start of the season because he tipped up early on his reappearance. So if he goes shorter than three miles next time and meets a single figure field I'll be very interested in his chances.

TOUBAB IS GOING TO BE HARD TO BEAT

Recently I've discovered something worrying about the official times of jump races: The official times are taken from the time the horses start running but very often they start running further away from the first jump in some races than others.

A good example of this was the Listed Novice hurdle won by TOUBAB (39) at Haydock last Saturday. His official time was 2.2 seconds slower than that of Carlito Brigante over the same course and distance, but from the first jump it was only a tenth of a second slower. And when I adjust his rating for the slow early pace and near sprint from halfway I have to award Toubab a really big speed rating for this win.

Toubab is a well proportioned, strong, chasing sort that is surely going to be hard to beat in novice hurdles because he simply cantered away with this race.

Trainer Paul Nicholls says Toubab has strengthened up since last season and is no longer such a hard puller. He was keen early on here but that's understandable as the pace was moderate. He certainly powered clear once given just a little rein in the closing stages.

Seeing how he's tired after moving strongly in the past I'm a little sceptical of Toubab lasting home up Cheltenham’s finishing hill in the Supreme Novices. Still, on this run I'd be scared of opposing Toubab in novice company wherever he runs.

AINTREE HURDLE LOOKS RIGHT TARGET FOR SILVINIACO CONTI

SILVINIANO CONTO (40) was most impressive when winning the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle at Ascot, coming within a fraction of a second of the course record to clock a time that would win most Grade 1 staying hurdles.

The early pace was searching thanks to Lough Derg, so it was a bold move on the part of jockey Noel Fehily to kick on fully half a mile from the finish. But in truth he had little choice because Silviniano Conti was moving so well.

Silviniano Conti was improving really strongly when he kicked on and instantly had all his rivals under pressure. He kept on so well he actually managed to extend his margin all the way up the straight, ending up seven lengths clear crossing the lines where he was still moving strongly.

I think it's a smart move on the part of trainer Paul Nicholls to rest Silviniano Conti till the Spring. A horse so young has just got to take a while to recover from such a fast run.

Anyone taking the 7-2 the bookies are offering about Silviniano Conti for the World Hurdle needs their head examining in my opinion. 41 horses as young as him have run in the World Hurdle and they've all lost. The race is too severe a test for a five year old.

If the World Hurdle is out then the Champion Hurdle seems an equally unlikely target. I just can't see Silviniano Conti having the pace to match the top two mile hurdlers. The big target for him just has to be the Aintree Hurdle. Five year olds can win that race and the two and a half miles is ideal at this stage of the horse's career.

TATANIANO LOOKS INTERESTING FOR TINGLE CREEK

TATANIANO (33) was certainly disappointing when losing the valuable Testimonial Chase on his seasonal debut. But on reflection there had to be a doubt about him lasting home at Cheltenham now he's out of the novice ranks.

Tataniano has always been a little shy in the stamina department. He's got away with it in slow run novice races. But this time, against more experienced rivals, he clearly ran out of gas.

In fact Tataniano was his own worst enemy here. He ran the first third of the race, up to the first fence on the far side, 4.2 seconds faster than they did in either of the other two chases at the Open meeting run over the minimum distance. He was really keen and you could see he was going a step too fast by the fact he was having to reach for many of the fences and went through the top of several. For some reason, perhaps because he was too fresh off the seven month break, he was putting himself under way too much pressure in the early stages.

It's interesting to note that Tataniano jumped right in an effort to correct himself as he took some of the early fences too fast. It could be he's going to turn out being better jumping that way around. This being so I rather like his chances at Sandown next time in the Tingle Creek.

Actually the main reason I fancy Tataniano for the big Sandown race isn't because the track turns right handed. It's due to what stable jockey Ruby Walsh said last season when explaining why Twist Magic does so well at the course. He said that the way the fences are spaced at Sandown makes it easier to get a breather into a front runner - something that's crucial for short runners like Twist Magic and Tataniano.

Tataniano ran fast enough to win a Tingle Creek when scoring at Aintree last season. I see him as a very good proposition for the race.

The strong pace seemed very much to the liking of GAUVAIN (38) who won the race despite a nineteen month lay-off. He was always traveling well and kicked away readily in the straight.

I wouldn't go running away with the idea that this run marks out Gauvain as one of the top two milers. The official time of the race may make him look that way. But the runners started much closer to the first fence than they did in the other two mile races at the meeting. If you time them from there you'll find that Gauvain actually got home from the first jump 0.3 of a second slower than Ghizao and 0.7 of a second slower than Dave's Dream.

Gauvain's lack of stature clearly gave him problems in big fields over fences even as a novice. If he hadn't tipped up with one race won he would have won all six times he's run over fences in fields of seven or less. He's lost all four times he's faced bigger fields.

FORPADYDEPLASTER (36) would have been finishing second for the eleventh time in a row if that short head photo had gone against him in the Arkle. As has so often been the case in the pasts, he got done for a turn of foot by the winner.

I've banged on in the past about my belief that Forpadydeplasterer would do better over three miles. Trainer Thomas Cooper now seems to agree as he plans on running the horse in the King George next time.

GHIZAO A SOLID ARKLE PROSPECT

GHIZAO (39) clocked a fast time to run away with the Grade 2 two mile novice chase at the Arkle meeting. He quickened up in impressive style from two out to cross the line running fast and strong.

This is clearly a smart two mile chaser in the making.

Like most good two mile chasers Ghizao looks to be best on his first two starts of the season and then needs a break of at least five weeks to run well again. He lost his chasing debut, when taking a while to get the hang of jumping the fences, but has won the other four times he's run shorter trips when fresh in this way. I'd be wary of opposing him in any two mile novice chase he comes into fresh, and that includes the Arkle.

Third placed LOOSEN MY LOAD (34) went at it hammer and tongs with the winner for a long way. My feeling is he'd have been a clear second if he hadn't dueled with him for such an extended period.

It was impressive how Loosen My Load's jumping remained faultless even when he was under maximum pressure.

I noted after his last start that Loosen My Load looked like he'd appreciate three miles. It looked that way again this time from the way Ghizao was able to get him at it. This being so I'm pleased to hear he's set to tackle the Feltham next time out. If he gets fast enough ground there he'll surely be tough to beat.

DAVE'S DREAM A SMART TWO MILE CHASER

DAVE'S DREAM (40) clocked an official time 1.01 seconds slower than Gauvain at Cheltenham's Open meeting when winning the valuable Paddypower.com handicap chase. But that's simply because they began his race further away from the first fence. From the first fence to the finish he actually ran 0.72 of a second faster than Gauvain.

This wasn't the only race at the meeting where an extended run up to the first jump caused a misleadingly slow official time.

In any event Dave's Dream jumped well and moved strongly throughout the race. he was beginning to tire on the run in but had the race well won by that point to score by eight lengths.

Seeing how he was tiring at the finish here and has been beaten over twenty lengths all five times he's run two and a quarter miles or more it was surprising to hear that Dave's Dream is to be stepped up to 2m 5f for the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month. That doesn't sound like a good idea to me at all. Dave's Dream's form over longer distances and the fact he seems best fresh, like most good two mile chasers, suggests that two miles is his ideal distance.

To date Dave's Dream has won five times out of five when he's come into a race off a six month plus break. His only other win in seven tries came in the Imperial Cup. This followed a wide margin loss in his previous outing where he'd been allowed to come home in his own time after tiring. My bet is this made him fresh enough to score.

I recognise that many people believe a wind operation has transformed Dave's dream. But I strongly suspect he will not last home in the December Gold Cup. Most horses of his type are able to win off breaks of five weeks or more. If he's rested for this long any time after next month's big race and goes two miles I'll be very interested in his chances. He's not far off the top two milers on this run.

CUE CARD WILL PROBABLY FLUFF HIS LINES IN SUPREME NOVICES

CUE CARD (38) put up a performance which on the face of it looks almost impossibly good when winning the Grade 2 Sharp Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He ran the two miles and 110 yards in 3 minutes 56.40 seconds. A couple of days later at the same meeting, on ground that was apparently unchanged, last year's Supreme Novices winner Menorah took 5.94 seconds longer to run the same course and distance. Or did he?

In fact the run up to the first flight in Menorah's race was a fair bit longer than in Cue Card's. They started from further back. From the first flight to the finish the time difference between the two races was only 2.28 seconds.

Then you have to take account of the fact that the rails were moved out between the Saturday and the Sunday, adding approximately 15 yards to Menorah's race. That cuts the difference between his time and Cue Card's to about 1.2 seconds.

Finally you have to factor in that in Menorah's race the commentator noted the early pace was rather slow all the way up to the third flight. From that point they got home in 2 minutes 29.75 seconds compared with 2 minutes 29.62 seconds in Cue Card's race. Adjust Menorah's time for the rail movement and he actually ran the only reasonably comparable part of the race about half a second faster than Cue Card. Taking account of the fact that Cue Card ran the first third of his race significantly faster makes his performance and that of Menorah of equal merit by my calculations. And seeing the 127 rated Bothy ran Menorah to a neck it's clear neither ran better than a Grade 3 class time.

It could be that Cue Card can run even faster. Certainly he seemed to have something in reserve. But cutting him to as little as 7-4 to win the Supreme Novices seems premature to me. No Champion Bumper winner has gone on to win the Supreme Novices since Montelado became the first and so far only horse to pull off the double back in 1993. My feeling is that Cue Card will not be emulating him.

There's no question that Cue Card was impressive winning both the Champion Bumper and this race. But, even if he ends up being as good as many now seem to think, there is still the worry about whether he'll hold his form to the Festival. He's a rather narrow horse that surely needs his runs spacing out. Last year he had just the one run before the Festival and that was a very easy win in a minor race over seven weeks before. This time around he's already had two starts and will surely have at least a couple more.

Trainer Colin Tizzard is clearly aware of the risk as he said after the race "we'll have to mind him a bit now." But it's surely going to be hard to resist shooting for two or three more races before Cheltenham given the hype that is now being generated.

I'd want to see at least five weeks between this race and Cue Card's next start. If he isn't rested for that long I'd be inclined to oppose him.

LITTLE JOSH CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG HANDICAP

The performance of LITTLE JOSH (40) in winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup is what jump racing is all about. He jumped boldly and used his long stride to set a strong pace throughout and just keep on going.

Looking at Little Josh's physique it's tempting to think he'd stay three miles. And maybe he can. around a tight track. But to date his best form has been over shorter distances. This win took his score up to eight wins from ten completed starts at distances short of three miles.

Little Josh clearly has a real shot of pulling off a big Cheltenham double in next month's December Gold Cup. After that I'd like to see him given another shot at three miles in the Racing Post Chase. My gut feel is he could get the three miles around that dead flat, tight course.

Runner up DANCING TORANDO (39) ran a big race. And my suspicion is that he's going to prove best over the easier fences they have in Britain. In Ireland one of his two successes over fences came in a seven runner novice event. The other was at Wexford where the fences claim a low percentage of fallers just like British ones. His last Irish win was over hurdles.

LONG RUN (38) once more failed to get home up the steep finishing hill at Cheltenham. But he’s' run seriously fast and would have won all his six chase starts outside Cheltenham if one half length loss in a Grade 1 had been a win. I still respect his chances in the King George.

BIG FELLA THANKS AND HEY BIG SPENDER HAVE A REAL SHOT IN HENNESSY

Horses respond differently to small fields. Some pull too hard because they're seeing so much daylight. Others don't feel motivated to run because there's not enough competition.

We saw what happens when horses of each description meet when HEY BIG SPENDER (39) beat BIG FELLA THANKS (39) in a hot Graduation Chase at Carlisle.

Big Fella Thanks nearly pulled himself up in a small field at Taunton a couple of years ago when his jockey had to ride like a demon to keep him going. This time around he was give a brilliant ride by Graham Lee who ensured he had all his rivals in front of him most of the way. He gradually edged him closer to the lead when disaster struck two out. This is where Hey Big Spender made a mistake, lost ground and left poor Big Fella Thanks marooned in the lead with one fence and a long uphill run in ahead of him.

Lee made the best of the situation and tried to keep his mount going, but the inevitable happened on the run in where Big Fella Thanks lost interest, wandered around and idled, allowing Hey Big Spender to rally back past him.

So far Big Fella Thanks has won six times out of ten in fields of nine or more and lost all six times he's run in smaller fields. One of his losses in big fields was nine runner point to point where only six finished. Another was a valuable handicap where he tipped up when bang there three out. The other two were good runs in the last two Grand Nationals.

Big Fella Thanks looked as though he was going to cruise clear when he was forced into the lead and clearly has any amount of ability. When he's in a big enough field to ensure plenty of cover he's always going to be a tough opponent. So I have to like his chances off a featherweight in the Hennessy.

Hey Big Spender also goes for the Hennessy and must have a real shot as he traveled like much the best horse here for most of the contest. My impression was that if he hadn't kept pulling so hard due to the small field he would not have made the two or three jumping errors, notably that rather lucky one two out which left his unwilling rival in the lead.

Hey Big Spender is a big, long striding sort. So it's not surprising he seems to dislike tight courses. He's lost all six times he's run on tight courses, including when putting in his worst ever lifetime start to get beat 69 lengths at Aintree last year

He's done far better around great big galloping courses. In fact if he hadn't twice bumped into the top class Inchidaly Rock and run second he would have all six times he's completed the course on such tracks over two and a half miles plus.

Hey Big Spender was on his way to running another big race when tipping up in the Jewson at Cheltenham in March.

Trainer Colin Tizzard said before this race he wanted to find a small field for Hey Big Spender to build his confidence back up, mentioning this race several weeks ago as a possibility, most likely because he's aware that the fences at Carlisle are so easy. They've claimed a lower percentage of fallers than any chase track in Britain or Ireland over the last fifteen years, lower even than some hurdle courses (e.g. Cheltenham and Newbury).

My suspicion is that when he's taken along at a strong pace in a big field in the Hennessy Hey Big Spender will settle and jump better. I think he's got about as much chance of winning there as Big Fella Thanks.

TCHICO POLOS ANOTHER STAR TWO MILER FOR NICHOLLS

Last year, after pulling for the first couple of furlongs, TCHICO POLOS (41) was allowed to stride on to cover the remaining two miles in exactly the same times as the winner of the Haldon Gold Cup on the same card at Exeter. This prompted me to suggested he might well have won the big race had he run in it.

This year Tchico Polos had the chance to test that theory. And sure enough he won the Haldon Gold Cup in very decent time.

Thanks to Herecomesthetruth the early pace was searching and this enabled Tchico Polos to settle much better than he has in some races. After having his first challenge beaten back when Somersby and I'msingingtheblues kicked on he rallied to get back up and then hold off his stablemate Twist Magic in a driving finish by half a length.

Like most top two mile chasers, Tchico Polos is best fresh. Like them he seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two starts of the season then needs a break of at least five weeks to run well again. So far he's run six times to the rest pattern over two and a quarter miles or less and won every single time.

TWIST MAGIC (41) ran right up to form and seems to have developed a bit more stamina with age. In the past he barely got the minimum NH distance. But here he was staying on strongly at the end of a fast run 2m 1f and 110 yards around a testing two mile oval.

I still plan on being rather cautious with Twist Magic after that incident last year when he refused to race at Punchestown, and that stats say I'm right to be.

Over the last fifteen years 35 individual horses have earned the form book comment 'refused to race' in British and Irish pattern races on the flat and over jumps (I'm not counting multiple offenders). Not one of the 35 ever went on to win a Group or Graded race after planting themselves at the start and 40% of them refused to race in at least one subsequent outing.

It could be that Twist Magic is now going to behave fine every time, but I want to see him do so a couple of more times before I get confidence enough to back him again.

SOMERSBY (39) was cruising for much of the race and looked likely to win when dueling with I'msingingtheblues early in the straight. But he got tired and his stride was shortening quite dramatically on the run in, so he did well to keep on for third.

It's easy to argue on pedigree and from the way he's run on at the end of several two mile races that Somersby wants longer. But this run and the two previous times he's run beyond two miles and 110 yards suggest the opposite.

Somersby slowed to a walk in the closing stages at Aintree last time out when a distant second after looking to be cruising all over the winner turning in. On his previous try at a longer trip he'd tired to get beat twenty lengths at Ascot.

The fact that Somersby goes best fresh is another clear pointer to a lack of stamina.

Top two mile chasers need to use their 'fast twitch' muscles to ping the jumps at the pace required to win the best chases over the minimum distance. The glycogen that these muscles use is quickly accessed, rapidly depleted during a race and takes quite a while to build up again afterwards. This is why the vast majority of top two mile chasers are best off a break, just like Somersby is. The top three mile chasers usually need their first run of the season.

I had been rather enthusiastic about I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (37) because he was going so well when tipping up four out in the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal debut. But the way that he tired here after once more moving really well shows that he still doesn't last beyond two miles or get home on a stiff track or soft ground. On an easier track with a faster surface over two miles however he is very smart.

THE SAWYER (35) ran a tremendous race on his seasonal debut to finish fifth. He's a big, stuffy horse that takes plenty of getting fit. All his wins have come in January or later. Judged by this effort there's a shot he could make it to the winner's enclosure this time around a little ahead of his normal schedule. But the fact he's lost all fifteen times he's run before January to date tempers my enthusiasm for that idea.

It was great to see that eccentric character HERECOMESTHETRUTH charging at the fences at a terrific clip as ever. He clearly has the pace for two miles as he set a scorching gallop and was still going strong until the wide open spaces of Exeter proved too tempting for him and he resorted to his old trick of running out that he's attempted so often in the past.

The only previous time Herecomesthetruth has actually managed to run out was at Cheltenham where the course is just as wide open as Exeter. For this reason I'm always going to be wary of him on great big wide open course like Newbury, Punchestown, Cheltenham and Exeter, and at other tracks like Haydock where the paddock seems to be an almost irresistible attraction to horses like him when they pass it.

The race I'd like to see Herecomesthetruth shoot for is the Desert Orchid chase at Kempton over Christmas. There's very little room to run out there. The Tingle Creek at Sandown would also be an interesting target.

Cutting back to shorter trips with Herecomesthetruth looks a smart plan.

Around tight tracks or at Chepstow, where the last three quarters of a mile are downhill, Herecomesthetruth lasts home fine over longer distances. But around other courses his stamina an inch beyond two and a half miles is suspect. Until his last run his form figures around tight tracks or at Chepstow or over two and a half miles or less read 1111111. And it's worth bearing in mind his last run was on heavy ground over two and a half miles in a race run at a searching gallop. In addition, it was at Fontwell, a figure of eight course that turns both ways - an unusual choice seeing that Nicholls had said repeatedly he needs to jump right handed.