MOTIVATOR IS CHAMPION TWO YEAR OLD

MOTIVATOR (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a two year old this season when winning the Racing Post Trophy impressively last week. He'd destroyed the smart Sunday Symphony by six lengths on his debut and looks very much overpriced with Ladbrokes for the Derby at 16-1.

The only reason Motivator is so big in the Derby betting is that a consensus seems to be building that he's a mudlark who simply won't handle the likely fast ground at Epsom next June. I have trouble buying into that analysis. First of all, Motivator has only run two times. Yes, both his starts have been on soft going, but a horse isn't responsible for the ground he races on. Secondly, his trainer, who surely knows him best, says that fast ground will not be a problem for the horse. Thirdly, his sire acted on soft but also won Group 1 races on firm ground while his dam was a firm ground specialist who ran well below form the only time she raced on soft going.

Whether or not Motivator does end up acting on fast ground, runner-up ALBERT HALL (37) might well turn out to be just as good if not better. He ran a serious Group 1 time here despite showing major signs of inexperience both before and during the race. It could well be that he would have preferred a firmer surface too.

You can debate what distance is going to prove best for Albert Hall next year. My bet, seeing that his dam seems to throw nothing but sprinters and milers is that a mile will be his limit. But these days, my research shows that pedigree means relatively little and that it's how a horse is trained and conditioned by racing that counts. So if Aiden O'Brien trains Albert Hall like a middle distance colt next year and runs him exclusively over ten furlongs plus I suspect he'll do perfectly well. If he trains him as a miler he'll likely prove top class at that game too. According to my ratings he's Coolmore's best two year old, and he looks to have a whole lot more potential for improvement than any other juvenile in his yard.

Henrik (36) got some good write ups for his third place effort. But he's very speedily bred and simply ran up to the form he showed when chasing home Dubawi in a Group 3 last time. I suspect he's going to turn out to be best at sprint trips. And my ratings peg him as a Group 2 horse. That's not proven a very successful combination for three year olds in Britain in the past. There just aren't many opportunities for a horse of this type.

I thought CUPID'S GLORY (38) was a cert to win the Blenheim stakes at the Curragh a few weeks ago seeing how fast he'd run when scoring a hat trick of wins in his three previous outings. However, the cut back to six furlongs coupled with the slow pace that's endemic in Irish juvenile races seemed to prove his undoing. He led but was soon outrun when the sprint for home began before rallying in the closing stages. He ended up getting beat a length and a half. The winner was Ad Valorem who certainly franked the form with a Group 1 win since.

At Newbury, back over seven furlongs, and on the soft ground that produced his best performance, Cupid's Glory did a whole lot better - running away with the Horris Hill stakes to earn the joint biggest speed rating I've awarded a two year old all season. I have to add that 38 is a point or tw0 below the normal top figure I give to a juvenile each year (though it's the same as the rating I gave to Bago who earned my biggest rating last year). Still, there are a couple of juvenile Group 1's yet to be run in France, and Cupid's Glory may well run in one of them according to the Racing Post, the Criterium International at Maisons-Laffite. That's shaping up to be the best two year old race of the season, and clearly, Cupid's Glory has a major shot of winning it - especially if the going stays soft.

SPEAR THISTLE (33) is a tall colt with a round action according to Raceform. So it was not too surprising to see him improve radically on his first two starts to take a juvenile maiden run on incredibly heavy ground over a mile at Newbury. His time ranks as Listed class and I can see him developing into a decent performer over a mile and a half plus in mud next year.

Runner-up GENERAL JUMBO (33) is a similar sort. A great big strapping beast, he may well needs cut in the ground like the winner. He could be anything. Certainly he shouldn't have any trouble winning a maiden.

EXTERIOR (37) strolled home by six lengths in a decent little ten furlong handicap at Nottingham. He apparently didn't handle firm ground at Goodwood last time. Otherwise, on softer turf or the AW he's won his last three outings by six lengths or more. Clearly, on his favoured surface he's a smart three year old that may well prove capable of winning a big handicap next season before being up to pattern company.

It was a similar story with DOUBLE DEPUTY (36) at Doncaster. This Godolphin inmate won for the second time in two starts when taking a class D handicap in a much better time than normal for the grade. Runner-up ANOTHER CHOICE (36) only just lost after failing to find a clear run and is clearly much better than a class D horse on soft ground.

CESAR MANRIQUE (34) won a five furlong Bath maiden in fast time. He's a useful, pattern class two year old on this run, but he'll be eligible for pretty ordinary sprint handicaps when he next appears in 2005. He's therefore one to take careful note of.

The jumps season proper has barely started and already we've got a decent Triumph Hurdle prospect in CERIUM (36). This promising youngster finished second to one of the top French juveniles on his only hurdles start in France and blasted home by nine lengths at Kempton. His speed rating would not be sensational for a novice hurdler, but juvenile hurdlers tend to run about four or five points slower than novices, so his rating marks him out as at least Grade 2 class.

In the very next race MARCEL (38) earned a big speed figure from me yet again when extending his winning run to five at the expense of the smart Scandinavian hurdler Twiddel Turn.

Marcel is the best novice hurdler we've seen so far this season on the clock and won this easing up.

TWIDDEL TURN (37) was a useful flat racer, winning twelve times and placing in Group company. But he has improved significantly over hurdles. He lost by half a length on his second hurdles outing but won his other three Scandinavian jumps starts by big margins, defeating some highly rated hurdlers easily.

I don't make speed ratings for Scandanavia but I've found that the handicap ratings produced by www.scanhorse.no are a good guide, and these suggest that Twiddel Turn can actually go a bit faster than he did when chasing home Marcel here. If he makes another trip from Norway I would be wary of siding against him.

GREAT TRAVEL (38) stormed home by eight lengths in a two mil handicap chase at Kempton and is a much happier horse this season than last according to his trainer, Paul Nicholls. Nicholls aims to keep him that way by spacing out his runs and keeping him fresh in future. That looks a good idea seeing how his form fell apart last year after he'd won two in a row following a break of a couple of months. I suspect Great Travel is best going right-handed. I can't see any evidence of jumping right on left-handed tracks in his record. But it shows that all six of his wins have come on right-handed tracks and that he's lost all six times he's run left-handed. Nicholls has kept him to right-handed tracks for his last half dozen starts, and I imagine he'll continue with this policy.

In the preceding race on the same card SUD BLEU (37) and LACDOUDAL (37) pulled well clear of their rivals to fight out a tight finish to a fast novice chase. They're both looking like potential Arkle prospects. I doubt that you'll get rich following them but it will take a smart novice to get by either of the pair.

A very similar situation occurred in another two mile novice chase at Aintree where RIVER CITY (38) and CONTRABAND (37) also opened up a big gap on their rivals to fight out the finish in a fast run race. River City has now won all his five chase starts and consistently runs Grade 3 times. He's obviously going to continue to do well. But I suspect Contraband will do quite a bit better.

The fences on the Mildmay course at Aintree have claimed a much higher percentage of fallers over the last decade than any other British jumps track excluding the adjacent National course. A study I once conducted showed that the tougher the fences are the less likely it was for a horse to win or even run up to its best on its chasing debut. This being so, Contraband turned in an exceptionally good run on his first start over the bigger jumps, and we can excuse his jumping errors. To jump around this track in fast time on his chasing debut was quite some achievement. We might well be talking about the next Arkle winner here.

WILLIE JOHN DALY (36) equaled his best hurdles speed rating when winning a novice chase at Exeter. There are an unusual number of smart novice chasers around this season but he's fast enough to win again.

Runner-up BY DEGREE (36) was a fair pointer to pointer back in the Spring of 2002, having won his maiden then finished a neck second to the useful Viaduct (five time winner and fourth in the Champion Hunter Chase at the last Punchestown Festival). He showed here that he retains all the ability he showed back then and is a decent staying chaser in the making. He'll be tough to beat in novice company next time.

JUNGLE JINKS (37) plummeted down the ratings as a result of a strong of poor runs on unsuitably fast ground. But he showed what he can do back on soft ground at Haydock. He won nicely and has shown that he stays a good deal further, so he looks an interesting proposition for a big staying handicap chase off a light weight sometime soon.

CAMERON BRIDGE (37) won the Desert Orchid Silver Cup at Wincanton in decent time from the useful Kelrev. Since he switched to the bigger jumps he seems to run to what I call 'the rest pattern'. That is he's good for his first two runs each season but then needs a break of five or six weeks or more to run well again. A high percentage of the better two and two and a half mile chasers run to this pattern. I'm pretty sure this is because a horse really has to bend its back to ping the fences at the speed they go in short chases. I reckon such horses need to be freshened up for their backs to recover. In any event, Cameron Bridge has now won all four chases he's contested when fresh in the manner I've described. If I'm right he should still be at his peak next time but ought to be opposed if kept on the go without a break after that.

On a negative note, I'd be wary of over-estimating the merit of the performance Farmer Jack (37) put up top take the Grade 2 Totesport Wigan Cahse at Aintree. The clock indicates that his main rivals must have run below form for some reason and that Farmer Jack may well struggle at this level in future.

ELECTROCUTIONIST COULD BE A 'SHOCK' BIG RACE WINNER NEXT SEASON

Right now I don't make full blown speed ratings for Italian racing. But I've developed good standard times for San Siro so can come up with a pretty accurate rating for last Sunday's Group 1 Gran Premio del Jockey Club. And the rating I've come up with for the winner SHIROCCO (44) and runner-up ELECTROCUTIONIST (44) is awfully big.

Shirocco's success came as no big surprise. He'd proven himself one of Europe's top performers when romping away with the German Derby. The thing is that race, like last Sunday's, was run on soft ground. Shirocco was scratched from the Arc because his connections said he wouldn't like the firm ground (which he seemed to prove when only third in the Grosser Preis von Baden). So it looks like his future success in the top races is going to be dictated by the weather. But not so Electrocutionist.

The trainer of Electrocutionist said after the race that the horse was better on a fast surface. If that is really the case then Electrocutionist must be a fantastic horse. On my ratings only Azamour, Bago, Doyen, Cherry Mix and Rakti have run faster this season (and then only marginally).

In 2003 the Italians produced an international superstar in Falbrav. This year they produced another in Rakti. Now it looks like they're going to make it three in a row with Electrocutionist.

If Electrocutionist hadn't lost on a head bob last Sunday he'd now be unbeaten in four lifetime starts. He's something to look forward to next season. So is Shirocco, but everyone knows what he can do already. I'd bet on Electrocutionist going off at huge odds if he ships over for a race like the King George. I can hardly wait.

HAAFHD NOT SO HOT

Haafhd (43) put up a solid Group 1 time to take the Champion stakes. It earned him one of the top 20 speed ratings I've awarded this season.. But the post-race hype about Haafhd was way over the top. On this run he is nowhere near to being a champion. He's not even the fastest of his age group. In fact he was rather lucky that so many of his biggest rivals failed to produce their best on the soft ground. He was left to beat the decent but not brilliant filly Choirist home in a time that suggests he's not quite up to winning one of the really big Group 1 races next year.

Azamour (40) had twice earned speed ratings from me that would have won this race. But it looks clear that his connections concerns about the soft ground were justified. Next year, on firmer going, he'll surely prove tough to beat in some of the top international middle distance races.

Quite why Doyen (33) was tried for the second time over ten furlongs is beyond me. As I mentioned here a few weeks ago, his pedigree just screams out that he needs 12 furlongs. In addition, I've long suspected he prefers firm ground and trainer Saeed bin Suroor confirmed this afterwards. Seeing that Doyen has shown he can cope with hot weather, tight turns and a slow pace, it seems a pity he didn't go for the Breeders' Cup Turf instead of this race. Oh well, there's always next year.

TOMOOHAT HAS BIG CHANCE IN 1000 GUINEAS

The last few weeks of the flat season nowadays are a time to look carefully for some of the very best juveniles to make their racecourse debuts. In the old days such horses would have contested a string of juvenile Group races. But the fashion now is for many of the very best youngsters to have just the single run in maiden company right at the tail end of the season.

In this regard I would direct your attention to TOMOOHAT (37) who earned the biggest speed figure I've awarded a two year old on its debut this season when scoring at Newmarket. This well bred filly ran only a length per mile slower than the top female two year old, Playful Act, managed in her recent big Group 1 win. So the 33-1 offered by Paddy Power and Victor Chandler about her chances in the 1000 Guineas seems a tad on the generous side.

Tomoohat is bred to appreciate faster ground and to stay a mile, so she did well to win on ground with a bit of cut in it over six furlongs here. I can't think of a horse I'd rather bet for the first fillies' classic next year.

Runner-up KENMORE (35) is sprint bred, so will almost certainly have a tough time winning next year. But he'd be a slam dunk for a maiden if he turned out again this season and would have a good shot in a Listed or Group 3 sprint. Similar comments apply to third-placed RIVER ROYALE (34).

Another two year old I've already mentioned here is INGLETON (35) who improved again to run a solid Group 3 time to take a nursery at Newmarket. The original plan was to send him to the Doncaster sales, but I wonder if his owners will now have a change of mind seeing how well he's developing.

OUR FUGITIVE (35) ran a big race to get to within a neck of Ingleton and would surely be tough to beat if he's turned out again before the end of the season.

Shamardal (36) ran only a tick quicker than Ingleton to win what looked like a sub par Dewhurst Stakes both before and afterwards on my speed ratings. I was surprised to see the bookies cut him to such a short price for the 2000 Guineas afterwards. Dubawi and Diktatorial have both run faster according top my calculations, and, unlike Shamardal, they've done so on the kind of fast ground that's likely to prevail at Newmarket next May.

In reality, we simply haven't seen a truly exceptional two year old so far this year. That's what my speed ratings say. But the season's not over yet. I can recall Dubai Millenium earning a speed rating of 40 from me on his racecourse debut in the last week of the season a few years ago. And, as Tomoohat has demonstrated, there are probably still plenty of smart youngsters yet to see the track.

FLAMBOYANT LAD (40) is a seriously decent three year old. He showed this when completing a hat trick in a red hot handicap at Newmarket. It looks like the step up to twelve furlongs improved him. I rated his performance to be solid Group class and fully expect to see him win in Group company next year. Meanwhile surely there's a big handicap to be won with him off his current ludicrously low official mark.

BIG MOMENT (40) ran a huge speed figure for the second time in a row and was most unlucky to come up against such a smart performer in a mere class C contest. Clearly cut in the ground is what he needs, and if he gets it again next time, whether on the flat or over hurdles, I would be wary of opposing him.

SOULACROIX (39) had beaten the smart Lost Soldier Three a couple of runs back and showed that was no fluke by running a big time to take third. My speed rating says he's good enough to win a Group 3 so I'd love the chance to bet him in handicap company next time.

MANORSUN (38) ran a huge speed figure as a three year old and showed he was right back to his best despite the two year gap in his record before this season. I like his chances of winning before the season is over.

MASSIF CENTRALE (38) was a 100-1 outsider in the Epsom Derby. But the way he won at Leicester makes it clear that he was actually racing at the right level that day. The speed rating I awarded him was a solid Group 3 number. This big handsome horse has a whole lot of potential and beat a freakishly strong field here (five of his rivals had previously run pattern class times). His record suggests that he tends to need his first run off a break, so I'd be wary of betting him first time out next season. After that though I'd bet on Massif Centrale proving up to winning in Group company.

Runner-up ZEITGEIST (37) had some smart horses behind him and is beginning to look like an interesting prospect for the Ebor next year.

Mark Johnston's CARTE DIAMOND (37) earned a Listed class time for the third time in a row (this was only his fourth run). He too looks a smart long-term prospect and might even develop into a Cup horse next season. Certainly he looks a threat to take a big handicap.

Mulark LET'S ROLL (37) was most unlucky to come up against three such smart horses in a class C contest. He did well to finish a close fourth and would have a serious chance in the November Handicap if he got his ground.

ODIHAM (37) finished strongly to take fifth in what was a Listed race in all but name. He is surely going to take something decent in one of his next few starts.

BEST BE GOING (38) won another hot handicap at Windsor almost a year to the day after running a fast time to take a similar race at Goodwood. Maybe he's best in the Autumn. Perhaps the visors helped. Whatever the reason Best Be Going demonstrated here that he's a whole lot better than a class D handicapper and ought to be followed.

Runner-up DIEGO CAN (38) had beaten the smart Go Tech a couple of runs back, and that one certainly franked the form by winning his next three. He ran even better here and is amazingly well handicapped for a horse with so much ability.

WESTBOROUGH (36) lost his first seventeen races. But for some reason he's improved massively to take his last two, most recently running a fast time over five furlongs at Ayr. I don't like recommending sprinters as horses to follow since they can regress off a fast race, the draw is such a huge factor and giant fields ensure that traffic is as well. However Westborough, if I convert my speed rating to an official handicap rating I come up with a number that is 35 pounds ahead of the mark he ran off at Ayr. In other words he looks incredibly well handicapped and is eligible for races well below his true class level.

A sprinter whose ability is just as under-rated by official figures according to my speed ratings is NORTHERN GAMES (39) who romped home by a big margin at Ayr. Northern Games seems to have been improved massively by the prevailing soft ground. He won again, ins only slightly slower time a couple of days later. And, as long as he encounters going that's a bit squidgy, I'd rate him a solid bet to win again before the end of the season.

MALAPROPISM (41) is another in-form sprinter, and he ran even faster than Northern Games when scoring at Musselburgh. Britain is over-stocked with fast sprinters, but Malapropism looks set to win something big next season. He too would be a great bet if turned out again this term.

Over jumps BARON WINDRUSH (36) strolled home by a big margin at Stratford, earning a decent speed figure for a novice chaser going three miles on its debut over the bigger jumps. There are already some nice novice chasers around, but clearly Baron Windrush has to be respected against any of them.

MOTH BALL IS ONE OF TOP JUVENILES

MOTH BALL (37) ran one of the fastest juvenile times of the season by my estimates when taking the Rockingham Stakes at York. He'd run fourth in a huge field in another contest run just as fast behind Obe Gold on his previous start, despite having to race on his own. With a bit of racing luck it now looks like he might well have won all six times he's raced on good or faster ground (he doesn't seem to like it soft). I note with interest that he's now entered up over a mile, but I suspect that's being optimistic. On pedigree it would seem that six furlongs, perhaps seven will be his limit. He looks an interesting prospect for one of the shorter Guineas Trials early next season. Meanwhile if he goes for the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffite, the season's only remaining six furlong juvenile Group race, on the 29th of October, he'd be tough to beat providing he got his ground.

INGLETON (33) won what was yet another in a long string of fast UK nursery handicaps this season when scoring at York. He ran a pattern class time here and ought to be able to win again if he's turned out before he comes under the hammer at an upcoming auction.

CROSSPEACE (32) won a six furlong juvenile maiden in Listed class time for Mark Johnston at Newcastle and looks well capable of following up. He's bred to get further so may well improve some more. He's actually entered up for an upcoming nursery over a mile where he'd surely have a big shot.

The well bred ROCK DOVE (31) ran a good time for a debutante to win at Nottingham. She did so despite losing ground at the start and running green, so clearly she ought to be able to improve on this.

Runner-up DISGUISE (31) showed improvement on his fourth lifetime start. It could be that the tongue tie or fast ground helped. Whatever the reason, he looks set to break his maiden soon.

NASHAAB (38) bounced right back to his best to take a hot handicap at York. He's a tough horse to predict, but in this form I can see him winning again soon.

Runner-up ADAIKALI (37) improved on his best speed figure and it may well have been the cut back to a mile that did the trick. Adaikali travels really well in his races and may well improve with more experience. I'd expect to see him contest races like the Royal Hunt Cup next year and predict that he'll be winning one of the big mile handicaps. Meanwhile, if he turns out again this season I wouldn't want to oppose him.

Third-placed LITERATIM (37) is a horse I've written up before. This four year old has only raced a handful of times and continues to look like a future big handicap winner.

NEWCORP LAD (37) won an ordinary class E handicap at Newcastle in a time that would take many Listed races. He was hampered in a huge field when trying to follow up at Redcar a few days later and might well have won again but for the interference. To date all of his wins have come on good or faster ground on stiff tracks. I note with interest that he's entered back at Newcastle on the tenth.

Over jumps COLOURFUL LIFE (37) strolled home by a big margin in fast time at Bangor. This was his first run over fences in years. He'd reverted to hurdles after tipping up in several novice chases. But new trainer Paul Nicholls has obviously sorted out whatever problem was making him jump so poorly and now has a very promising chaser on his hands.

Looking through Colourful Life's form, I note that all his wins to date have come when he's been fresh. That is, on his first two runs off a long break or with five or six weeks at least off thereafter. A lot of horses with back trouble run to this pattern. They need the rests for their back to recover. It remains to be seen whether Colourful Life will now be able to win without being freshened up again after his next start. But his record and that of horses like him suggests that he'll be fine next time out even if they bring him back quite quickly. After that, seeing how tough back problems are to fix with steeplechasers, I'd bet on him needing a rest again and bet against him if he doesn't get one.

GONFILIA GOOD ENOUGH FOR DUBAI DUTY FREE

One of the most obvious trends this season has concerned the two year old races. Until very recently the fastest times had all been run outside of Group company. And I've awarded a remarkable number of the biggest speed figures to winners of nursery handicaps. For this reason I've been predicting for a long time that we'd be seeing upsets in some of the big two year old races, with nursery, maiden and conditions race winners beating horses that had previously won or gone close in Group company.

The process I predicted started on cue at the very beginning of September. The vast majority of two year old Group winners since then have been horses without previous Group form.

This being so I wouldn't run away with the idea that the 40-1 success of Magical Romance (36) in the Cheveley Park was as big a surprise as the odds suggest. British nursery handicaps have been red hot this year and she won a decent won by three lengths on her previous outing. Having said that I still can't quite recommend Magical Romance as a horse to follow. She only earned an ordinary Group 2 rating from me to take the big race and she's going to be tough to win with from now on in Group 1 company.

Runner-up SUEZ (36) looks a better long term prospect since she got upset in the stalls and was slowly away as a result. She looked highly promising before the race after two wins from two starts. I can easily see her developing into a serious candidate for the 1000 Guineas.

DIKTATORIAL (34) duly took the Group 3 Somerville Tatersall Stakes on the same card as the Chevelely Park. His time was a bit disappointing, seeing that he'd run a rating of 37 when winning his previous start. However, the fact that a couple of his rivals were pulling hard in the early stages and that the first five finished stacked up at the end suggests strongly that the early pace was a bit slow and that it's this which caused the relatively slow final time.

The way that Diktatorial got headed when the race began in earnest and then rallied to score suggests that he may well want a bit longer than a mile next year. It may be that he ends up being a ten furlong horse. But at this stage it's hard to say. All I can say is that he's run a Group 1 time before and looks a solid candidate to win at the top level next season.

The Middle Park stakes was won by Ad Valorem (35). But his speed figure was only Group 3 class by my estimates, so I can't nominate him as a horse to follow, or any of those that chased him home.

OBE GOLD (37) continued the trend of fast nursery winners when taking a hot two year old handicap at Nemwarket. Then a couple of days later he ran even quicker to beat the very smart Caesar Beware on lightning fast ground in the valuable Betfair.com Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar. Her lowered the juvenile course record in the process.

Obe God has already passed the post first in Group company. This was when he took the Group 3 Primi Passi at San Siro from the smart Shifting Place only to lose the race in the Stewards' room. Shifting Place certainly franked the form when finishing a length second to Divine Proportions in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin next time. Obe Gold is clearly a useful sprinter on fast ground. He is just a sprinter on pedigree and three year old sprinters have a tough time in the first half of the season, nonetheless he looks worth following next year.

Runner-up CAESAR BEWARE (36) ran a tad slower than when earning the joint biggest speed rating I've awarded a juvenile this year. He looks a more interesting long term prospect because his pedigree indicates he may well stay a mile. No doubt this is one of the reasons Sheikh Rashid bin Mohammed purchased him before the race.

Caesar Beware's trainer Henry Candy specializes in sprinters, but even he is planning on stepping the horse up to seven furlongs for his next start. There must be a fair chance that the Sheikh will switch him to the family's Godolphin operation though and that he'll be prepared for the Guineas. I wouldn't discount his chances of winning.

I thought SALSELON (39) was a cert for the Joel Stakes run up the straight at Newmarket. After all, his trainer, Luca Cumani, had gone on record as saying the horse was best on a straight course and Salselon's record certainly backed that up. He'd won all five times he'd previously run on straight courses below Group 1 level and run big races to finish a close second and third in two of his Group 1 losses on straight tracks. All seemed to be going to plan as Salselon came fast and late and started to go clear. But he decided to ease himself up close hom and got caught. Clearly he's a tricky ride, but at least his jockeys will know the problem they're dealing with from now on. So, next time Salseon runs on a straight track below Group 1 class I'd be wary of opposing him.

POLAR BEN (40) got up to beat Salselon but is unlikely to be winning again this season. All of his wins have come off a break and there's not really enough time to rest him before the end of the flat season now. However, Polar Ben remains a seriously hard horse to beat off a lay-off. That's something to bear in mind next season on his first outing if he's kept in training. He could well start at a nice price that day because he's due to run in the Challenge stakes in a couple of weeks times and a predictable loss there will make him look inconsistent to many.

Polar Ben's stablemate ROYAL PRINCE (39) ran almost as fast on the same card when taking a hot Classified Stakes. He's capable of taking a Group race on this performance but remains eligible for handicaps. I can see him taking something big before the season is out.

Runner-up DAWN SUPRISE (38) was unlucky to come up against such a smart performer at this level. She also bumped up against subsequent Group 1 winner Quiff when second in a maiden. Take out those two horses and she would have won all fine times she's run beyond sprint distances since her debut. The logical thing would be to keep her in training next season and shoot for a Listed or Group 3 contest to ensure her stud value. If such a race can be found for her before the end of this season she'd have a great chance.

GONFILIA (41), a stablemate of Dawn Surprise, ran a terrific race to equal Redcar's seven furlong course record on very firm ground in a warm Listed race. Her connections have long said that Gonfilia is at her best on a hard surface, and the going allowances I produce for my speed figures indicate they are absolutely right. If she hadn't raced on the wrong side of the course and run second at Doncaster this would have been her seventh successive win on going I rate as genuinely firm. If she's kept in training the Dubai Duty Free would be an obvious target for her seeing that it's run at her home track and almost always on very firm going.

James Eustace has produced some smart All Weather runners over the years, and he looks to have another great prospect for this winter in WELCOME STRANGER (39). Welcome Stranger is by one of the top AW sires and has plenty of AW and dirt influences on the dam's side. In fact he's already won on the Polytrack at Lingfield. But it was on the grass at Ascot that he showed just what he could do, taking a decent handicap in a time that would win many Group 3 events.

Runner-up TWILIGHT BLUES (39) is a seriously smart horse when he's fresh and racing on fast ground. Since this was only his first run in three months it's quite possible he'll still be fresh enough to run his best in the upcoming Challenge stakes at Newmarket on October 16th. If the ground is fast for that meeting I can see Twilight Blues running a big race at likely huge odds.

So far, Welcome Stranger's form suggests that he needs a recent run, doesn't stay ten furlongs and, like most AW horses, needs firm ground to produce his best form on turf. If he somehow manages to get fast ground again before the end of the turf season he'd have a very good chance of scoring again. Most likely though, he's a horse that will next be winning back at Lingfield. I'd like to see him given another shot at ten furlongs. After all, given the slow pace they go on the Polytrack, the downhill gradient and the lightning fast nature of the surface, if a horse is going to get ten furlongs anywhere it will be at Lingfield. If he can stay then the Winter Derby will become a tempting target.

BETTALATETHANNEVER (39) would be an equally interesting candidate for the All Weather after his recent runaway win at Epsom, a track that suits AW performers. But he's destined for the Horses In Training Sale at Newmarket, where I'd bet on him fetching a few quid. Bettalatethannever may be best in a small field, which means 11 runners or less usually. In fields that small beyond six furlongs on the AW or on tracks that the stats show suit AW horses (Brighton,Epsom,Yarmouth) he's won three out of three. The place for him is California where the average field size is very small and where Bettalatethannever might well turn out to be a stakes performer on dirt. I can pretty much guarantee that's where he'll be headed since so many US trainers, several from California, have said they're coming to the Horses In Training sales this year. If by some chance Bettalatethannever does remain in Britain I'd follow him on the AW this winter. Most likely though you'll be seeing him next on Attheraces in one of the races they screen from the states. He's already placed in Listed company on the sand, and the form of that race has worked out well.

BADMINTON (39) looked a very smart filly last year when running a close third in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Unfortunately she got injured and missed the Guineas. She finally made her comeback in a Listed race at Ascot where she blew home by three lengths from a decent field. Apparently the plan now is to shoot for a Group race on her next start. On this class she's capable of winning at least in Group 2 class against her own sex. The only obvious target I can see is the Premio Sergio Cumani at San Siro in about three week's time. That can be a pretty hot race (subsequent Group 1 winner Marbye took it last year), but Badminton should have a great chance there.

Sir Mark Prescott loves to win a string of handicaps with a pattern class horse. And it looks like the game is on again with QUARRYMOUNT (38) who dotted up by six lengths on the Cambridgeshire card at Newmarket. He lost when rushed back quickly over a much shorter distance at Windsor a couple of days later. Rested and back over a mile and three quarters or so I can see Quarrymount winning a big handicap for Prescott next season. The Ebor rather leaps to mind.

Prescott has already done his stuff with the smart two year old filly SUCCESSION (34) who extended her unbeaten streak in nurseries to three when lowering the juvenile track record for a mile at Musselburgh. Succession is up to winning in Group company on this performance, but from her entries it looks like Sir Mark plans on winning at least one more handicap with her. He failed in the attempt as it turned out, when Succession ran third in a big field a few days later. Could be she was rushed back to the races too quick. Next year I'd bet on her earning some black type.

Runner-up I'M SO LUCKY (32) wasn't exactly lucky to bump up against such a smart opponent in a low grade nursery at a minor track. She looks set to win soon.

Another fast nursery winner was LOOPHOLE (36) who scored at Epsom. Right now Loophole looks like a short runner. He's won both times he's raced over the minimum distance at Brighton and Epsom, the two most steeply downhill tracks in Britain. But he's failed to get home over other tracks and over six furlongs at Epsom. Maybe he'll develop a bit more stamina with age. But, if he were mine, I'd be planning a future campaign based around five furlong handicaps on fast ground at Epsom and Brighton. His speed figure ranks as Group 2 class. But Britain is overstocked with good sprinters, and in my experience speedballs like Loophole don't improve much, if at all, from two to three. So I wouldn't be getting too excited about his future prospects.

STARDUSTER (34) who chased Loophole home, seems to be improving and looks a live candidate for the October Yearling Sales Stakes coming up on the 22nd of October at Doncaster. If she goes for a maiden instead she ought to have little trouble scoring.

An older handicap winner worth following is surely DESERT CRISTAL (38). This three year old filly ran a time that in my estimation would win many Group races against her own sex when scoring at Goodwood. She's been running like a horse that wants a longer distance, and it seems her connections plan on stepping her up in trip next year. Meanwhile, if as planned, she has one more run, she'd be something to bet on, especially if she makes the step up in trip now. If she were mine I'd be shooting for a ten furlong Listed race. But her handicap mark is so lenient it would be understandable if she were kept to a lower grade.

GO TECH (37) has obviously improved since stepped up to ten furlongs and won in unusually fast time for a class D handicap at Redcar. He's entered up at York in a few days and must have a good chance of completing a hat trick there.

TUNGSTEN STRIKE (38) earned a good speed figure when taking a Listed race at Newmarket and is clearly a decent young stayer. He's looking interesting off a low weight in the Cesarewitch.

Over jumps, VODKA BLEU (40) continued the recent trend of the fastest NH times coming in novice chases. He beat a very smart rival in SHALAKO (39) with the rest well beaten off. He's going to be tough to beat in the big novice chases to come.

Shalako has been unlucky to come up against very smart Martin Pipe trained novices on his last two starts. But for that he would have been winning for the third time in a row here. He runs fast times over fences and clearly has the all-important ability to jump a fence at speed. That's a big plus for a novice chaser so I'd bet on Shalako taking a valuable race for first season chasers at some point this jumps season.

PECCADILLO (38) is a smart chaser when he's fresh and racing right-handed on fast ground. He showed just how smart when lowering the course record by over four second for the two and a half miles at Huntingdon.

Peccadillo seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two starts each season then needs a break of five ro six weeks since his last completed outing to run well again. In these circumstances he would have won eight of his last ten completed starts but for bumping up against smart fast ground performers on two occasions and going under narrowly. No doubt he will be steered towards another race on fast ground next time, and, since it will only be his second outing of the season, he should score again.

Runner-up Lincoln Place (36) appears to be another rest pattern performer (a lot of good two and two and a half mile chasers are). But he's now had two starts this term so I can't recommend following him in the immediate future. PALUA (36) has no such problems since this was his seasonal debut. He was responsible for the fast pace which helped bring down the track record and looks capable of winning a normal class C at less than three miles soon.

MADE IN FRANCE (36) made it two wins from two starts in Britain when running a useful time for a class D handicap hurdle at Exeter. I suspect that the reason he's improved so much on most of his French form is that he prefers the fast ground he's been racing on in Britain. The fact that he lost on softer ground next time seems to confirm this. While the fast ground prevails he's going to be a tough horse to beat.