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NAKHEEL IS TOP CLASS
Mark Johnston has a serious classic prospect on his hands
in NAKHEEL (39). The Derby entry took his record to two wins from two starts
when sluicing home by four lengths in the Listed Silver Tankard at Pontefract.
Given mark Johnston's ability to train horses to stay and
the fact that the mile of this on testing ground at Pontefract takes some
getting it's hard not to see Nakheel as a middle distance prospect for next
season. Right now Johnston is saying he plans to keep Nakheel to a mile but I'm
expecting to see the horse take up his engagement in the Derby next year. In
fact, on the evidence of this run, Nakheel is one of the best prospects we've
seen for that race all season. I awarded him a big Group 1 speed rating for this
effort.
If he were mine I'd be thinking in terms of the Group 1
Criterium de Saint Cloud over ten furlongs for Nakheel. But he's actually owned
by Hamdan Al Makhtoum so I imagine there's a real chance he'll be taken over by
Godolphin for next season.
SHAHIN LOOKS A SOLID DERBY PROSPECT
This has been Hamdan Al Makhtoum's week for Derby
prospects. Soon after his Nakheel won in sensational time at Pontefract another
of his colts SHAHIN (39) ran equally fast to take a mile maiden at Newbury.
Shanin had finished second to Winged Cupid on his previous
start, despite being slow into his stride. That form started to look really good
the very next day when Winged Cupid ran second in the Racing Post Trophy. Group
1 races like that are where Shain now belongs if my speed ratings are any guide.
Certainly I wouldn't want to put anyone off betting him ante-post for the Derby
off this effort. It was a tremendous performance.
Runner-up SUPASEUS (36) powered nine lengths clear of the
third in a big field and also looks worth following.
RACING POST TROPHY WAS SLOW
I'm going to be treating the form of the Racing Post trophy
with a good deal of suspicion. The winner Palace Episode (34) hadn't run
particularly fast previously and didn't do so when taking the big race. It could
well be that he was simply the only horse that handled the heavy ground. Long
term I'd bet on the runner-up Winged Cupid and third placed Septimus proving
better.
DAY FLIGHT RUNS A GROUP 1 TIME YET AGAIN
It must be frustrating to own a top class horse that needs
soft ground like DAY FLIGHT (42). You are always going to be at the mercy of the
weather and will have a hard time planning a sensible campaign.
Last week Day Flight showed what he can do by recording a
Group 1 time once more to take the St Simon Stakes at Newbury.
Hopefully next season Day Flight will be able to find a
Group 1 race run on soft ground at some stage. If he does I wouldn't care to
oppose him. He ranks right up there with Shirocco as one of the best mudlarks in
Europe.
Runner-up SELF DEFENSE (41) is a very smart horse over
hurdles and on the flat. I can see him springing a surprise against one of the
top hurdlers in a conditions race sometime this winter, just like he did when
beating Rooster Booster last term.
KHYBER KIM IS A NAME TO REMEMBER
KHYBER KIM (39) recorded a seriously fast time when taking
a good ten furlong handicap at Newbury. His only loss in three outings to date
came when he finished second to Echo Of Light when that one ran what I rated as
a Group 1 time at Doncaster.
My speed ratings suggest that Khyber Kim is a Group 3 horse
at least and a great prospect for next season.
REVERENCE IS ONE OF THE TOP SPRINTERS OVER FIVE FURLONGS
REVERENCE (42) earned a huge speed rating from me when
running away with a five furlong sprint handicap at Doncaster. He has now won
all four times he's raced over the minimum distance. And even with a big penalty
he'll still be ludicrously well handicapped following this run. This being so
I'd bet on trainer Eric Alston placing Reverence to win one of the top five
furlong handicaps on one of his next few starts. Following that I'd expect the
horse to prove competitive in Group company. Long term, given his liming for
soft ground, I'd see Reverence as a fascinating prospect for next season's Prix
Abbaye.
GREY PLOVER IS WORTH FOLLOWING
The good three year olds have normally graduated out of
maiden company. But we undoubtedly saw a smart member of the classic generation
in GREY PLOVER (37) when she took what looks like a freakishly strong maiden for
this time of year at Newcastle.
Grey Plover is obviously a very progressive filly. She was
entered in a listed race soon after this win, though she didn't take up the
engagement. I'd watch out for her in that sort of contest soon.
Runner-up SAMURAI WAY (36) did well to give such a smart
winner a run for her money, and pulled eight lengths clear of the third while
doing so. This Godolphin colt was making his racecourse debut and should
therefore improve for the experience. He'd be a slam dunk to win an ordinary
maiden in the near future and would be worth betting in a decent handicap.
CHILLING PLACE AND CORNISH SET ARE SMART NOVICE CHASERS
CHILLING PLACE (42) and CORNISH SETT (42) fought out a
tight finish for a seriously fast novice chase at Exeter. Both are Cheltenham
Festival prospects according to my speed ratings.
Chilling Place had actually won before over fences. This
was when he took his sole point to point start at Kilmoganny in Ireland on fast
ground last year. That run indicates Chillin Place can stay further than the two
and a quarter miles of this race. But he doesn't need to for now. There are
plenty of novice chases to be won at shorter trips and I can see Chilling Place
developing into a solid Arkle prospect.
Cornish Sett has a proper old fashioned chasing pedigree
and is clearly bred to get three miles plus. This being so he did tremendously
well on what was his chasing debut to run so fast at such a short distance. Okay
he did appear to try and run out before the last. But inexperienced horses do
all sorts of odd things. At this stage he looks a very interesting candidate for
future races like the Feltham and the Sun Alliance Chase.
MANSTON IS BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER
MANSTON (36) earned a pattern class speed rating from me
when taking what looked like a rather strong nursery at York. He’s already
shown that he can stay seven furlongs so it looks likely that he’s not simply
one of those juvenile speedballs that will fail by being forced to take on older
horses too soon over five and six furlongs. He ought to prove competitive in big
handicaps and Listed company on this showing.
ROSS COMM GOING THE ‘RIGHT’ WAY
ROSS COMM (36) ran a good time when running away with a
minor handicap chase at Ayr. And my sped ratings say he can run a fair bit
faster. He actually earned one of the biggest speed ratings I awarded a novice
chaser last season when scoring at Worcester. And I think the reason he failed
to score a couple of times afterwards was that he ran on tight left-handed
courses. He's jumped to the right in a couple of starts and horses that do that
invariably prefer right-handed courses. If they can handle left-handed tracks
it's usually only ones with easy turns like Worcester.
Ross Comm has dotted up in all three of his UK starts on
galloping left-handed courses. Here he showed his appreciation for a
right-handed track. I can see him developing into a contender for a decent
handicap like the racing Post Chase. Meanwhile he’s still eligible for races
well below his true class, so I see him winning again soon.
WET LIPS SHOWS DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT
WET LIPS (40) won a Listed race on the flat in Australia
but took just one of his 16 outings over hurdles. However, now that he’s been
switched to chasing he seems to have bounced right back to his best. In fact
last week at Carlisle he earned a speed rating from me that would win most Grade
2 chases.
Wet Lips probably needs firm ground to run his best. When
he gets it I’d be wary of opposing him because his official handicap ratings
understates his ability by a big margin if the clock is anything to go by.
Stablemate BILL’S ECHO (39) did well to run a good second
to Wet Lips and has also improved markedly according to my speed ratings. I’d
expect him to be franking this form soon.
PINPOINT IS WORTH NOTING
PINPOINT (38) blasted home by three lengths in a good
handicap at Salisbury in pattern class time last Saturday and looks the sort to
take a big handicap next year. His jockey, Ted Durcan, said after the race that
he’s a weak horse who should strengthen up an improve over the winter. If he
runs again this year I’d bet on him following up this success.
HIGH BRAY CAN WIN AGAIN
HIGH BRAY (36) ran third to a Group racer on his racecourse
debut over seven furlongs. Now that he’s returned to that distance he’s once
more showing smart from. He won for the second time in a row at the trip at
Salisbury last Saturday, earning a speed rating from me that suggests he’s
still very well handicapped despite his big rise in the weights this year.
No doubt High Bray is going to attract some decent bids at
the forthcoming Horses In Training sale. Whoever gets him will have a horse that’s
capable of winning again soon on their hands – especially if he’s kept to
seven furlongs.
BALTHAZAR’S GIFT A SMART TWO YEAR OLD
BALTHAZAR’S GIFT (37) won the Rockingham Stakes in good
time from the useful Masta Plasta (34). He’s now won both times that he’s
had a bit of cut in the ground, and this is the way his new trainer Kevin Ryan
says he likes it. He told reporters that the horse is a bit straight in front
and therefore dislikes racing on firm ground. This is understandable. Horses
that are straight in front hit the ground hard. They are also normally best at
short sprint trips. So I wouldn’t want to bet on Balthazar’s Gift lasting
longer than the six furlongs he ran here. Nonetheless he ran fast enough to
merit consideration in better company.
IRIS’S GIFT IS PROBABLY JUST AS GOOD OVER FENCES
IRIS’S GIFT (38) earned a very good speed rating for a
novice chaser when scoring at Bangor. He’s apparently a lazy sort who only
does just enough to win, so it will be interesting to see how fast he can run
when pressed by better rivals than he faced here. I strongly suspect that he’s
going to prove just as good over hurdles as he was over fences. He’s already
earned a speed rating that marks him out as one of the fastest novice chasers.
Runner-up MONTGERMONT (36) ought to be franking the form
soon. He pulled hard and made mistakes on what was his jumping debut.
Nonetheless he ended up running a good deal quicker than the average novice
chase winner.
RACE FOR THE STARS QUICKER THAN STABLEMATE RUMPLESTILTSKIN
RACE FOR THE STARS (37) is improving rapidly according to my
speed ratings and ran her fastest race yet to take a strong renewal of the Oh So
Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. In fact I awarded her the joint fastest speed rating
I've given a two year old filly all season at seven furlongs or more. It was a
solid Group 1 effort for a horse of her age and sex.
At this stage I have to say that I'd much rather take 16-1
about Race For The Stars winning the 1,000 Guineas than a quarter the odds about
her stablemate Rumplestiltskin.
Second place finisher SCOTTISH STAGE (36) must also be pretty
useful as she got to within half a length of Race For The Stars. Her pedigree
seems to suggest that she's more of an Oaks than a 1,000 Guineas prospect.
AMADEUS WOLF NEEDS TO RUN QUICKER AND LONGER
AMADEUS WOLF (38) ran a perfectly respectable time to win the
Middle Park Stakes. In fact he ran a bit quicker than the average winner of the
race has managed in the last few years. But he's going to have to run a bit faster
to have a chance in the 2000 Guineas. And that seems unlikely given his pedigree
and the fact that he's yet to run beyond six furlongs.
There are invariably plenty of two year olds that can run fast
times at five and six furlongs. Only about a tenth as many manage to run fast
times at seven furlongs or more. And I don't like the idea of taking a one in
then chance that Amadeus Wolf can run as quick over longer.
MUNSEF IS SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD TO
MUNSEF (39) beat a strong field in a fast run renewal of the
Listed Godolphin Stakes at Newmarket. This took his record to three wins from
three tries at trips beyond a mile.
Trainer John Dunlop told reporters after the race that he didn't
expect Munsef to win as it was his first run since jarring himself when winning
the valuable King George V handicap at the Royal meeting back in June.
Nonetheless Munsef beat some nice horses in a time that would win most Group 3
events and quite a few group 2's. Clearly he's capable of winning in better
company.
FOCUS GROUP CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP
FOCUS GROUP (38) recorded a pattern class time to take a
decent mile handicap at Newmarket. What made the effort even more meritorious is
that it was his first race in over a year and only his second lifetime start.
Focus Group won his only other start as well and looks a fair
bit better than his official handicap mark indicates. This being so I can see
him winning a valuable handicap in one of his next few starts.
Runner-up NOTNOWCATO (38) also looks worth following. He'd won
the only other time he ran a mile and was unlucky to come up against such a
smart rival at this class level.
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