OUR VIC BRILLIANT BUT STILL HARD TO FATHOM

OUR VIC (44) is a horse I still don't understand. All I know is that he can run monstrous speed ratings when he's right. He did so again when beating the brilliant mudlark NEPTUNES COLLONGES (42) to take the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby.

It's just got to be significant that Our Vic has bombed all three times he's run at the Cheltenham Festival. Could it be that he doesn't get home on the very stiff course at the furious pace Festival races are run at? That's my best shot at explaining Our Vic's form right now. Certainly he has done a whole lot better away from tracks with steep uphill finishes, winning seven times out of eight on such courses.

If my theory is right then Our Vic is almost a good thing to take the King Georges.

Neptunes Collonges had previously won all nine of his completed starts on soft or heavy ground. He ran as fast as he ever has but simply came up against what my ratings say is the joint fastest chaser in recent years.

Now that he's back over fences it will be interesting to see if he really does need a bog to produce Gold Cup class form like this. Maybe over three and a quarter miles plus his obvious stamina will enable him to show his best regardless of the ground. I hope so, but I can't bet on it just yet.

MONET'S GARDEN SHOULD SKIP THE KING GEORGE

MONET'S GARDEN (41) looked to be up against it on his seasonal debut. He was facing French Champion hurdler MID DANCER (40) over fences that claim a lower percentage of fallers than many hurdles courses (Cheltenham's for example). Mid Dancer was rated almost 20 pounds ahead on official ratings. Somehow though Monet's Garden managed to beat his brilliant French rival. In doing so he earned a speed rating that suggests he's going to be competitive in Grade 1 chases this season.

What this run told us is that two and a half miles is the perfect trip over fences for Monet's Garden. He won a couple of hurdles over three miles that my speed ratings say were slow run. And he ran second in a tiny field over the distance in another slow run G2 at Kempton. But, as his trainer admitted at the time, his stamina gave out the two times he was asked to run beyond two and a half miles at Cheltenham in more strongly run contests.

The top three mile chases are invariably run at a searching pace. So in my opinion Monet's Garden should skip the King George. I can understand why his connections would want to try the experiment as it would open up more options for the horse. However there is a better program of two and a half mile chases than there used to be so I don't think anyone should be too despondent if, as I strongly suspect, Monet's Garden tires badly in the closing stages of the King George.

MId Dancer, like the winner, was unfit according to his trainer. And, on reflection, the two and a half miles is a bit on the short side for him. In addition his big French wins have all come on good or faster ground according to the going allowances I make for my speed ratings (forget the official French going reports, they're a joke).

With going, fitness and distance against him, Mid Dancer did well to post a speed rating only two points off the best he's run in France. It was disappointing to see the French Champion lose for only the second time in his fourteen race career. But the race did the main job of educating him to jump British style fences. And his trainer must be commended for doing the research necessary to figure out what course to run him over to get that particular job done.

There are few races in France for a horse that stays three miles. So we'll no doubt be seeing more of Mid Dancer this Winter. He certainly looks to have a major chance of adding to the terrific record of French chasers in the King George and it's extraordinary to see the bookies making him a much longer price for that race than Monet's Garden.

ROLL ALONG THE FASTEST NOVICE HURDLER SO FAR

ROLL ALONG (38) ran a tremendous time to score on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham. He'd won his three previous bumper races, jumped like an old hand, has the looks to match and is clearly a great prospect. It's hard to tell exactly where he'll end up in the pecking order. It depends on the strength of the novice hurdlers which have yet to run. Some seasons a rating of 38 is good enough to take a Grade 1 novice event. Others it's only a Grade 3 number.

Seeing that he is 'highly strung' according to his former trainer Mark Pitman, I have a couple of reservations about Roll Along.

The first is that highly strung horses, however stoutly bred they may be, are never certain to be effective over longer trips. So I'm going to be cautious about betting that Roll Along will be effective beyond two miles until he proves it.

The second reservation I have about Roll Along's temperament is that highly strung horses are invariably best fresh. They tend to get themselves fit and don't take that much racing. In this regards it's interesting to note that all of Roll Along's wins to date have come off a lengthy break. Most horses that need to be fresh are good for their first two starts of the season and then need a break of at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter. I'd therefore be expecting Roll Along to score again next time. But I'd be inclined to side against him if he runs again less than five weeks after that.

Runner-up OFAREL D'AIRY (37) made the mistake that lots of inexperienced jumpers do, blundering at the last when his jockey asked for a big one. But for that he would have at least given the winner more to do. As it is he still pulled clear of the rest and will surely be winning good novice hurdles before his attention is turned to chasing. He's certainly bred for that game like most French AQPS (non-thoroughbred) horses. Incidentally, it's interesting to note that French AQPS horses are like British motor car registration plates. You can tell the year they were born from the first letter. Ofarel D'airy's name beings with an 'O', which means he was born in 2002. Look up his sole French start, a 3YO bumper in 2005 and you'll find that all twelve runners in the race had names beginning with an 'O'. I rather doubt that British and Irish racehorse owners or punters would be keen on this idea. Even the French may start to have doubts in 2011 when they'll arrive at the letter 'X'. Now that'll be a real toughie: Thinking up several thousand racehorse names that all begin with X.

DON'T PUSH IT IS A GRADE 1 CLASS NOVICE CHASER

As I've mentioned before, I always think of October as 'novice chaser month' in Britain. Most of the fastest times are run by expensively purchased horses having their first start over fences for the top jumping stables. Even so, you rarely see an October novice chase time as fast as that run by DON'T PUSH NOW (40) on his chasing debut for Jonjo O'Neill.

Don't Push now earned a Grade 1 class speed rating from me for his demolition job on a good field of novice chasers at Stratford. Even at this early stage he's beginning to look rather a good thing for the Grade 1 Feltham Novice Chase at Kempton. And, if it turns out he can act on fast ground, he'd be a serious threat to take the Sun Alliance Chase as well.

Like Roll Along, the fastest novice hurdler we've seen to date, Don't Push It is a nervous horse according to his trainer. So, as with that horse, I'd like to see at least five weeks between his races once he's had his next start. If he's not kept fresh I'd consider opposing him unless he'd won his latest start easily and the time wasn't fast (in other words it took little out of him).

I can't wait to see what Don't Push It can do in better races. For now though all I can say is that he is a seriously good horse that may very well develop into a Gold Cup candidate next season.

Runner-up REGENTS WALK (38) would have been an impressive winner if he hadn't been unlucky enough to bump into such a smart rival. Due to his litany of physical problems I suspect he's always going to be at his best on the kind of soft ground he raced on here. When he gets it he should be able to win in Graded company. Meanwhile it should be a slam dunk for him to win an ordinary novice chase next time out.

Third-placed FIVE COLOURS (36) ran a length second to the brilliant Neptune Collonges in a Grade 2 novice hurdle last year and was understandably strongly fancied here. He ran his race but simply came up against two very smart rivals. He'll probably improve for the run (his first in seven months) and should also prove competitive in Graded events. Like the runner-up, an ordinary novice chase should be pretty much a formality for him next time out.

SEE YOU SOMETIME GETS IT RIGHT

SEE YOU SOMETIME (39) has earned big speed ratings from me on several occasions and did so again when taking the valuable United House Gold Cup at Ascot. In doing so he prompted me to come up with what looks like a viable theory to explain his seemingly inconsistent form.

As I see it, See You Sometime is better going right-handed over fences. What obscures this face is that two of his chase wins have been at the figure of eight tracks Fontwell and Windsor. But experience has taught me that one should treat these tracks as being right-handed as the all-important last turn, taken when the horses are tired and thus most apt to jump out to their right, is right-handed.

I note with interest that See You Sometime has jumped to his right on at least one occasion, invariably a sign that a horse prefers running that way. If you count Fontwell and Windsor as right-handed you'll find that he's won four times out of six in chases run on right-handed tracks on the good ground he needs. He's blanked in twelve chases run on left-handed courses.

See You Sometime is a solid Grade 2 horse according to my ratings. And I expect to see him again win a decent race like this when he gets good or faster ground on a right-handed track.

DESERT QUEST IS NO CHAMPION HURDLER

I don't understand all the fuss about Desert Quest (38) after his win at Ascot last week. He didn't run much faster than a moderate novice handicap hurdle on the same card. And if his performance was so great then how come a nine year old chaser that's scored once since 2003 managed to get to within three lengths of him.

Detroit City or Brave Inca would have blitzed this field. Indeed, people seem to be forgetting that Detroit City ran 1.5 seconds faster on the same card when Desert Quest won the County Hurdle. That's the gap between Desert Quest and real Champion Hurdle contenders, and he's done nothing to bridge it since the Cheltenham festival according to my ratings.

BAHAR SHUMAAL THE BEST AW HORSE IN YEARS

BAHAR SHUMAAL (42) did something truly extraordinary at Wolverhampton last week-end. He turned a red hot handicap into a procession on his AW debut while earning a Group 1 class speed rating from me.

Make no mistake Bahar Shumaal is a truly top class horse on the AW. He is a slam dunk for the Winter Derby on this run and should be unstoppable in any AW races he contests before that. If he were mine I'd be putting him on a plane right now and flying him to America to campaign on the growing number of Polytrack courses they have over there.

AREYOUTALKINGTOME SHOULD WIN AGAIN

AREYOUTALKINGTOME (38) ran well in the Royal Lodge Stakes last year and finished a good fourth in the Craven Stakes in the Spring. So it's pretty amazing he was able to get into a class 3 handicap on the Polytrack. He won the race well, posting a Group 3 class speed rating.

You could say Areyoutalkingtome will be hard to place from now on because the race he won was over seven furlongs and his handicap mark is so high. But on wacky surface known as Polytrack horses win at all sorts of distances that are beyond them on turf thanks to the slow early pace the races are run at. So I reckon that trainer Charles Cyzer actually has a good deal more wiggle room with Areyoutalkingtome than it might appear. There are plenty of 0-100 handicaps run on the Polytrack during the Winter these days. And when he's too high in the weights to run in those there are quite a few conditions races. Therefore I reckon we'll be seeing Areyoutalking to me run through the Winter and win another race or two in the process.

INTO THE DARK HAS REAL CHANCE IN DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC

INTO THE DARK (39) was a Group 1 horse in 2004 according to my speed ratings. But last season he decided to pull like a train for some reason and never ran his race. This season he's been very slow to come to hand according to trainer Saeed bin Suroor but has been taught to settle. The benefit of this showed when he bounced back to something like his best to win a Listed race by six lengths at Newmarket.

This year Into The Dark's three runs have earned speed ratings of 34, 37 and most recently 39 from me. Clearly he's run faster as he has gotten fitter. When he hammered Percussionist five lengths on his last start of 2004 I gave him a monstrous rating of 43. Seeing the progress he's been making, it's no great leap to believe he can still hit that sort of number. And that makes him look a very interesting proposition for the Dubai Carnival which is where he's now heading. In particular he must have a real chance in the Dubai Sheema Classic. I just wish someone was offering ante-post odds for that race. And it says a lot about how far we have to go in recognizing the global nature of the sport that so far no bookie has marked up that race which just happens to be the most valuable in the world.

AUTHORIZED DEFINITELY A CLASSIC PROSPECT

This season has been an unusually good one for staying two year olds. Normally there are only three or four proper Group 1 times clocked by juveniles at seven furlongs or more. This year there have been ten or twelve. AUTHORIZED (39) added to the number with a good performance in the Racing Post Trophy and he's clearly a proper classic candidate. However, the fact that trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam told reporters "we won't be in too much of a rush at the start of the year" leads me to believe that Authorized is far more likely to run in the Derby than the Guineas and could even end up having his next Group 1 start in the Irish Derby. But wherever he ends up, Authorized is surely going to prove a very smart middle-distance performer next term.

Runner-up CHARLIE FARNSBARNS (38) improved when he was stepped up to seven furlongs and improved again for the jump up to a mile here. I think it would be a mistake to under-estimate him as this was a genuine Group 1 performance and he's bred to get middle distances.

SWEET LILY IS A SERIOUS OAKS PROSPECT

SWEET LILY (38) earned a proper Group 1 class speed rating from me when taking a hot renewal of the Silver Tankard at Pontefract. Clearly she is a very smart filly indeed and a serious Oaks prospect.

The only loss that Sweet Lily has suffered in her last five outings was a close fourth in what now looks like a vintage renewal of the May Hill Stakes where she was staying on best of all.

If Sweet Lily is to run again this season I imagine the most likely race she'll take in is the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket. She's a big, scopey filly whose strong suit is stamina, so the extra two furlongs should pose no problems for her. Actually, if she were mine, I'd take a shot and run her in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over the same distance. She'd been taking on the colts there but my ratings say she'd have a major chance of winning.

KAUTO STAR AS GOOD AS EVER

KAUTO STAR (41) ran as fast as he ever has to score on his comeback run at Aintree. But I'm reluctant to buy into the idea he's going to stay the three miles of the King George. Every season we see smart French-bred chasers attempt to go three miles, and, outside of novice company, they almost always fail to get home. The truth is over 99% of all French jump races are run over trips shorter than three miles, and French national hunt horses are inevitably bred to run the shorter distances available to them. Occasionally you'll get a French bred jumper like Edredon Bleu jump up and surprise you at three miles. But the percentage play is almost always to bet against horses like Kauto Star staying that sort of distance. Neither his sire nor his dam have ever produced a winner beyond 2m 5f, and I wouldn't bet on Kauto Star changing that.

However, while I'm happy to knock Kauto Star's stamina, I can't share the widespread belief that he's best on soft ground. French going reports are misleading, and it was good to firm by my estimates when he ran his best race over there.

LENNON AN ARKLE CANDIDATE

LENNON (40) blasted home in remarkably fast time on his chasing debut at Aintree. He ran a time that makes him a serious Arkle candidate. Clearly he is every bit as good as his connections have been saying he would be over fences.

It's a shame that Paul Nicholls French recruit GOOD SPIRIT was scratched as he would have run an even faster time than Lennon did here if he hadn't tipped up at the last on his last outing over the Channel. It looks inevitable that this pair will meet before long, but until they do I wouldn't want to bet that either of them will be beaten.

TURKO YET ANOTHER SMART NOVICE CHASER

The jumps season proper has barely begun. Yet we're already overstocked with fast novice chasers. TURKO (38) joined their ranks with a runaway win at Aintree, and I suspect he can run even faster. I say this because I gave him exactly the same speed rating for his win over hurdles at Clairefontaine 14 months ago. He was only a three year old then, so he really ought to be able to run a couple of points faster now. That puts him bang there with the kind of numbers the best novice chasers earn in a typical season.

NOTHING WRONG WITH KANPAI

KANPAI (40) ran about as fast as you'll ever see a novice hurdler go in the first half of the season when taking the Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow. He's now won his last six races over timber and showed here that he doesn't need to front run and can handle soft ground. It's early days yet, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with Kanpai and he now sets the benchmark for the novice hurdling division.

BRIERY FOX HAS IMPROVED

BRIERY FOX (37) ran much his fastest ever race to take a handicap chase at Worcester. And I confess I don't know why. I can usually find some good explanation for why a horse jumps up and runs a big race but not in this instance. I could take a stab and say the cut back to two and a half miles was the cause for the big run. However I think it's best to fall back on an old dictum of mine here, namely that horses are not numbers on a page. Those numbers you see in the form book don't tell you everything about a horse. They don't even come close. Sometimes a horse has a breathing operation, a change in its training regime or it simply experiences a growth spurt. The form book and speed ratings won't tell you about that. All they'll tell you is that the horse has improved. This, I suspect, is the case with Briery Fox.

At some point I dare say it will become evident just why Briery Fox is able to run faster than before. For now all we need to know is that he can, and that means he has a great shot of following up this win next time out.

STRONG RESOLVE BOUNCES BACK TO FORM

STRONG RESOLVE (38) is not a big horse according to his trainer. And small horses often have trouble jumping effectively in big fields. This may well explain why Strong resolve has won six of the last 12 chases he's contested in which six or fewer horses have completed the course but lost the last 13 when more runners have got round.

I wouldn't be wanting to bet him in a big handicap chase with lots of runners. But in minor races like this Strong Resolve is always going to be hard to beat.

MUJOOD IMPROVES OVER SIX FURLONGS

MUJOOD (38) blasted home by four lengths in a minor sprint handicap at Brighton. Clearly he's better over sprint trips than over the 8-10 furlongs he's been racing over. But he does seem to need something which takes the speed out of the race to help him – either a very steep uphill finish or cut in the ground such as he had here. It could well be that Polytrack will do the trick for him too over sprint trips, so he looks an interesting prospect for the Winter AW season.

TEXAS GOLD ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE OVER 5F AT LINGFIELD

TEXAS GOLD (39) seems to be almost unstoppable over five furlongs on Lingfield's Polytrack. If a few close finishes had gone the other way he would have won all ten times he's run over the course and distance. His latest success came at the expense of the very smart and somewhat unlucky INTREPID JACK (38) who has improved markedly since cut back to the minimum distance. This pair are probably the two fastest horses likely to run during the coming Winter over five furlongs at Lingfield. I'd think long and hard about opposing either of them at this trip on the Poly.

TEOFILO DOES THE IMPOSSIBLE

TEOFILO (41) lost ground at the start of the Dewhurst Stakes and then he rallied when headed in the closing stages to score. That's basically impossible according to a test I ran using Raceform Interactive software. It turns out that there have been quite a few horses which have won maiden races against equally inexperienced rivals by rallying after losing ground at the start. There have also been a few long distance events (twelve furlongs plus) where this has occurred – and many more over jumps. But there has never been a Group race, not even a Listed race, run anywhere in Europe over the last eleven years over less than twelve furlongs where a horse has earned form book comments such as 'dwelt', 'off slow', 'slow into stride' as well as 'rallied' and won or even reached the first four. It requires that a horse makes two huge moves – one early and one late. And that's just too much to ask – except it seems for Teofilo.

And Teofilo wasn't winning just any pattern race. He won a red hot Group 1 where he was up against HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (41), a horse that had run as fast as any two year old in the past five years according to my speed ratings.

If Teofilo was ever going to get beat it was in this race where he encountered what should have been insurmountable obstacles and was up against a brilliant rival. He really should have lost but somehow he found a way to win.

Teofilo clocked a faster time than the winner of the Challenge Stakes over the same course and distance. Again that's pretty much impossible, but he did it, earning the biggest speed rating I've give a two year old beyond five furlongs since Xaar took this race back in 1997. Xaar of course didn't really train on. But he wasn't that big, and it's a good rule of thumb that the bigger a two year old is the more likely it is to train on. Teofilo is huge, and he's already running fast enough to win Group 1 races against three year olds, so he doesn't need to improve at all.

36 years ago, a horse called Nijinsky won all five of his two year old races, culminating with a win in the Dewhurst Stakes. Teofilo has now emulated Nijinsky at two and he's got the physique, the pedigree, and I suspect the ability to emulate him at three as well. Jim Bolger has said that if Teofilo shows him he wants to go for the Triple Crown he'll let him. So could we be about to see a horse turn back the clock to a time when the best horses didn't specialize in a narrow range of distances? I hate to tempt fate but I do rather think so.

You have to feel sorry for Holy Roman Emperor. If he hadn't twice bumped up against Teofilo he would have been winning his fourth Group 1 in a row here and be hailed as an outstanding two year old champion.

It is probably fortunate for Holy Roman Emperor that Teofilo will be stepped up in distance after the Guineas next year as that will leave the way clear for him to dominate the other mile races for three year olds. As I've mentioned before, Holy Roman Emperor shouldn't go any further than a mile on pedigree. His brother Milanova won Listed and Group 3 contests over a mile in Australia but failed to score in eleven starts over longer distances. His half brother Heart Of Oak was also a miler in Germany (he never ran beyond a mile in fact). His other high class sibling Big Viking did take a Group 3 over ten furlongs as a three year old in Japan but his biggest win came in a Group 2 over seven furlongs when he was four.

SUNSHINE KID A DERBY PROSPECT

SUNSHINE KID (38) won a mile maiden so impressively at Newbury. And he clocked a terrific time.

Sunshine Kid is in the Racing Post Trophy, and this run makes him look like a good prospect for that race – and an even better one for the Derby.

Most Derby winners nowadays don't really strut their stuff till the Spring of their three year old careers. It's usually hard to tell much from their two year old form. But Sunshine Kid looks an obvious candidate for the Blue Riband based on this run, and on his pedigree which is remarkably stout for a US bred horse.

Sunshine Kid's sire Lemon Drop Kid always looked to me like he would have done well on turf. He also looked like he was built to go two miles, and would have done so if races of that distance were available to him in America. He tended to get outpaced over the short distance most US races are run over but really shone when winning the Group 1 Belmont Stakes over a mile and a half. Four of the top eight stakes winners he's produced in America so far have been turf horses - an unusually high proportion for a country where dirt is the main surface. This is I suspect, partly because they run longer distances on turf than dirt in America, but also because Lemon Drop Kid was built for turf too.

Sunshine Kid's dam, Nepenthe, also had a freakish level of stamina for an American runner. She won two Listed mile and a half races on turf, placed in two others and also ran third in an eleven furlong race on grass.

My concern is that Sunshine Kid is going to turn out to be something like Assessor, a horse that looked tremendous in hock deep going at shorter trips but who only won Group 1 races when he was stepped up to two miles plus. The counter argument to this is that while Lemon Drop Kid tends to get middle distance turf runners few of them need more than a mile and a half. In addition Sunshine Kid's dam won on firm turf while Lemon Drop Kid did so on dirt which is a very firm surface.

In any event, Sunshine Kid is clearly one of the best Derby prospects we've seen all season. And if he takes up his engagement in the Racing Post Trophy I would be very interested in his chances – especially if the ground came up soft and put an emphasis on stamina.

CABINET A GREAT PROSPECT FOR NEXT SEASON

MOUNT HADLEY (36) and CABINET (35) pulled clear of the field to fight out a fast run Leicester juvenile maiden over seven furlongs.

Mount Hadley won the race but he's not bred to go much further than the seven furlongs of this race. So, although he'd be interesting if he ran again this season, it is the more stoutly bred Cabinet that looks the better long term prospect.

Cabinet's stable won the same race with Papal Bull last year, and I suspect Cabinet could prove just as good. After all, this was his racecourse debut and he almost certainly wants longer.

INNOCENT AIR ONE OF THE TOP 3YO FILLIES

BYGONE DAYS IS BEST FRESH

BYGONE DAYS (41) won a strong renewal of the Bentinck Stakes in a time that makes him look a contender for the top sprints next season. The thing to bear in mind about him is that he seems to be strictly a six furlong horse that needs to be fresh. His form to date conforms to what I call 'the rest pattern'. That is he's good for his first two starts off a three month or longer break but then needs resting for at least six weeks in order to run well again. He's won six times out of eight at six furlongs when he's been freshened up like this since his 2YO days but lost all his other starts. So if he ran again this season I'd oppose him with some confidence.

LUSCIVIOUS IS A SMART SOFT GROUND SPRINTER

LUSCIVIOUS (38) clocked a remarkably fast time to win a novice race at Catterick. He's now won easily both times he's encountered what I rate soft ground and earned a very good Group class speed rating from me here.

If Luscivious makes normal physical progress from two to three he could well end up being competitive in the top sprints on soft ground. Meanwhile if he runs again at two I wouldn't care to oppose him if the going stays in his favour.

HARD ACT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

October is always 'novice chaser month' in Britain for those of us who make speed ratings. Many of the best young prospects have their first starts over the bigger jumps and record sensational times. The latest to do this was HARD ACT TO FOLLOW (38) who ran away with a three mile novice chase at Wetherby in very fast time.

It's very hard to tell exactly how good a lightly-raced horse like Hard Act To Follow is. All we can say for sure at this stage is that he's fast enough to win in Graded company, stays well and acts on soft ground. Only time will tell just where he fits in the pecking order and exactly what circumstances suit him best. Right now though I'd be very wary of betting against him – except perhaps on firm ground.

CROSSBOW CREEK GETS IT RIGHT

CROSSBOW CREEK (40) earned a big speed rating from me when winning a good maiden on the Polytrack at Lingfield recently. But over jumps it seems he needs to go right-handed. He also appears to want good or faster ground.

In the last three years Crossbow Creek has only encountered good or faster ground on right-handed courses in four jumps races where he's completed the course. He won all four times, his latest success being an easy win in Grade 2 class time at Kempton.

Clearly Crossbow Creek is a very smart chaser when he gets his favoured circumstances. I see him winning a big handicap at some point in the next few months.

SHUMOOKH IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

SHUMOOKH (40) ran almost unbelievably fast to run away with a good handicap at Pontefract. I could easily justify giving him a Group 1 class speed rating for the run. He is clearly a very smart horse indeed, one that should be winning good Group races before long.

Seeing how fast he ran here and earlier in the season, it's pretty amazing that Shumookh has ever lost. His trainer says his defeats have been due to going that was too fast for him, and that idea is certainly backed up by the going allowances I make for my speed ratings. These show that he's lost on the two fastest surfaces he's raced on and won his other three starts on slower ground.

DESCARTES COMES BEFORE MOST HORSES

DESCARTES (40) broke the long-standing 12 furlong course record at Lingfield by nearly a second to take a red hot handicap. In doing so the Godolphin four year old maintained his unbeaten record despite having been off for two years.

This was a solid Group 2 class performance by Descartes. He's clearly had physical problems and probably needs cut in the ground or the Polytrack (I doubt that he'll ever be risked on firm turf or anything like it, given his trainer's concerns on this score).

If Descartes runs again this season I wouldn't want to oppose him. And he's certainly something to look forward to next year.

It's hard to know whether the runner-up TRANSVESTITE (39) improved so much because of the switch to Polytrack or simply because he is just improving right now. His last run was the fastest in his career to date according to my speed ratings and he improved on that here. But it's also true that he won the last time he ran on Polytrack. In any event, wherever he goes next time out I would want to be betting him

MOUSTIQUE DE L'ISLE LOOKING GOOD FOR THE WELSH NATIONAL

MOUSTIQUE DE L'ISLE (39) earned a really big speed rating when running away with a strongly run chase at Bangor. He's only six years of age, so I think his trainer is right to nominate the Welsh National as his big target. Young horses have a tremendous record in that race. And this particular young horse clearly stays very well indeed and acts on the soft ground the Welsh National is usually run on.

BIG RUN ON CHASING DEBUT BY BOYCHUK

BOYCHUK (39) was one of last season's fastest novice hurdlers according to my speed ratings. Now he's gone and run a huge time on his chasing debut to score at Exeter. The performance makes him look a very decent prospect for the Sun Alliance Chase already.

Boychuk's fastest run over hurdles came over the longest distance he tried (three miles). So it may well be that in time he's going to become more of a Grand National rather than a Gold Cup sort. Right now though I'd be wary of opposing him in novice company over fences.

Runner-up BOWLEAZE (38) ran a tremendous race to pull 25 lengths clear of the third. It looks like he may be best fresh. But this was his first run in six months so he should still be fine for his next start which he must have a big chance of winning.

HOT 'N' HOLY IS USEFUL

HOT 'N' HOLY (36) ran a Listed class time to take a novice chase at Chepstow at the meeting which invariably sees the appearance of several decent sorts. How good he is only time will tell. But I'd be very cautious about opposing him outside of pattern company right now.

KNOWHERE IS GOING PLACES

There were several big runs by novice chasers last week, and one of the biggest was the runaway win by KNOWHERE (38) at Bangor. This Grade 2 Hurdles winner has won all four of his completed starts over jumps and could be anything.

ALZERRA IS A SMART SPRINTER

Five furlong two year olds are usually poor bets to do well at three. But ALZERRA (41) ran so fast to take the Cornwallis Stakes from a strong field that I have to make note of her. Trainer Mick Channon says that Alzerra is best with cut in the ground. He also reckons she'll stay at least seven furlongs and will therefore be aiming her at something like the Nell Gwyn or Fred Darling Stakes next Spring. If he's right and she can run this fast over longer than five furlongs she is quite some prospect. Though I have to say I reckon seven furlongs would be her absolute limit.

ANNA PAVLOVA TOUGH TO BEAT IN MUD

ANNA PAVLOVA (38) is clearly a very much better horse on soft ground, and she proved it by running away with a good Listed race at Ascot. She has now won all three times she's run on soft or heavy ground when she's had a vaguely recent run. Next season I'd expect to see her taking Group races when she gets her ground.

KNOT IN WOOD CAN WIN A BIG SPRINT HANDICAP

KNOT IN WOOD (40) ran a big race to go under by just a neck to the smart Rising Shadow (40) in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York. He's younger than the winner and seems a bit more versatile as to underfoot conditions. So I see him as the one to take out of the race. Long term I'd be keeping him in mind for next year's Ayr Gold Cup and other big six furlong handicaps.

INTREPID JACK IMPROVES OVER FIVE FURLONGS

Not many horses sired by Compton Place stay further than five furlongs. In fact I believe his progeny have the lowest average winning distance of any sire. So it makes sense that INTREPID JACK (40) should improve when cut back to the minimum distance for the first time.

Intreprid Jack does have a rather big official handicap rating. But that shouldn't stop him winning more races over this distance as I rate him a Group 2 class performer on this run.

STRONGHOLD LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE CHALLENGE STAKES

It's very rare indeed for a horse aged four and up to win a Group race over seven furlongs without having previously won over the super-specialist distance. So I figured that STRONGHOLD (39) was up against it in the Supreme Stakes at Goodwood. But he won the race well from a strong field. The fact that he managed to score in these circumstances leads me to believe that he's probably a tad better than he's shown so far.

It seems most likely that Stronghold is at his best in fields smaller than twelve except on straight courses. So the Challenge Stakes up the straight at Newmarket looks a logical target. I'd day he now looks very interesting for that race.

KINGSHOLM MUST BE FOLLOWED

One of my favourite type of horses is one whose connections experiment with surface, going, distance and track until they finally hit on the circumstances that suit it best. The horse shows radically improved form when it finally hits the right kind of race but the form seems to come from nowhere so punters distrust it and allow it to go off at much longer odds than it should next time.

KINGSHOLM (38) looks to be this sort of horse. He'd been running over ten furlongs or on Polytrack for most of his recent starts. But a mile on turf clearly suits him best because he scored in very fast time at Goodwood over the distance. He's a long way ahead of the handicapper on this showing and must be followed.

Runner-up GRIMES FAITH (38) had run a fast time when close up in a red hot seven furlong handicap at Newbury a few runs back. He stayed on well in that race and showed a bit of improvement for the step up to a mile here. He too looks very well handicapped and should win soon.

SHORTHAND HAS A GOOD CHANCE IN ROCKFEL STAKES

SHORTHAND (34) won a mile maiden at Nottingham on her racecourse debut in Listed class time. This run suggests she may well be just as good as her sister Short Skirt.

This race was run on ground a bit faster than good according to my going allowance. So if Shorthand takes after Short Skirt and the rest of her family in preferring a slower surface she could be very good indeed. Whatever then going I'd say she has a good chance in Newmarket's Rockfel Stakes which will probably be her next outing.

DUTCH ART PROBABLY JUST A SPRINTER

The Middle Park Stakes is not often a good guide to the Guineas these days. And I doubt that the 2006 renewal won by Dutch Art (38) will be any different. His dam was a sprinter. Her dam was a sprinter. And her best sibling King Quantas was also a sprinter. This being so I wouldn't want to bet that Dutch Art is going to get a mile, especially seeing that other two year olds have run faster over longer.

SHOTFIRE RIDGE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

The good older horses have generally graduated out of maiden company this late in the year. But SHOTFIRE RIDGE (36) hasn't had a chance to do so because he's unraced. And he showed that he's a decent sort when winning a mile maiden at Nottingham in Listed class time.

Shotfire Ridge should be eligible for ordinary handicaps off this run, so he really should win again soon and looks likely to develop into a very decent horse.

FLORIMUND SHOULD WIN AGAIN

FLORIMUND (37) earned a Listed class speed rating from me when running away with a maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack. He's obviously a very decent sort and should win again soon.