IBN KHALDUN AS FAST AS AUTHORIZED AND MOTIVATOR

The fastest Racing Post Trophys in recent years were the ones taken by Authorized and Motivator according to my speed ratings. IBN KHALDUN (39) ran just as fast as that pair by my calculations when winning the big Doncaster race last weekend.

Ibn Khaldun won this race like an old hand. Always going well, held up just off the leaders, he cruised up to join issue with about two furlongs to run and produced an impressive turn of foot to win the race with authority.

Clearly Ibn Khaldun is a top class horse. The difference between him, Authorized and Motivator is that they always looked like Derby prospects whereas he is by a top class miler out of a top class miler. In addition he's built and runs like a miler.

Ibn Khladun certainly looked like a Guineas horse here and, as I see it, is one of the two the best prospects for that race we've seen - the other being the only juvenile to run faster, namely Raven's Pass who earned a rating of 40 for me for his runaway Solario Stakes victory.

The 10-1 you can still get from the bookies about Ibn Khaldun for the 2000 Guineas looks crazy to me. His stablemate, Rio De La Plata is a shorter price and that looks bonkers. I rate Ibn Khaldun a couple of lengths ahead of Rio De La Plata, another fast ground specialist who I'm betting will be steered to the French Guineas since he's proven in French conditions and his stable will surely not want to run the two in the same race.

Horses that run as fast as Ibn Khaldun did to win the Racing Post Trophy invariably win Classics. And the Classic Ibn Khaldun looks most likely to win is the Guineas. I can see where the bookies are coming from in that High Top is the only Racing Post Trophy winner to have gone on to take the Guineas back in 1972. But American Post, the 2003 winner, went on to take the French Guineas and Ibn Khaldun looks like a miler to me.

I now have a lot more respect for the runner-up CITY LEADER (36). He looked to be going best of all in the early stages as he disputed the lead at a strong pace. But when the winner kicked away he ran green for a bit and was carried across the horse by the third. Nonetheless he got himself organised again and rallied late to regain second place in the dying strides.

I have to say that, looking at his physique and the way he ran here convinced me City Leader is going to prove best over a mile and a half next year. I know that sounds crazy seeing that he's by Fasliyev who never ran beyond six furlongs out of a dam that didn't stay ten furlongs and has produced a Breeders' Cup Sprint winner. However I'd point out that Fasliyev has also produced the top class bumper horse Cork All Star and Steppe Dancer, a Group winner this season over a mile and a half. In addition City Leader's dam has also produced two top class mile and a half horses - Commander Collins and Colonel Collins.

It seems to me that the reason City Leader has looked so one-paced over a mile is that he is needing a whole lot longer.

IGUAZU FALLS GETS INTERESTING

The Horris Hill Stakes doesn't often produce a top class horse these days. But I suspect it did this year as I was impressed with the close and unlucky third IGUAZU FALLS (37) in what was the fastest renewal of the big juvenile race in recent years.

Iguazu Falls pulled violently in the early stages as he saw clear daylight in front of him, throwing his head around. But he consented to race more smoothly as soon as his jockey switched him to race in among runners closer to the rail.

All seemed to be going smoothly until the horses which had been running in the centre of the course suddenly switched across to the rail around halfway, forming a very solid wall right in front of Iguazu Falls. On two occasions from there his jockey was clearly desperate to get through to make use of how well Iguazu Falls was travelling. But each time he was blocked until finally a gap opened with just over a furlong to go. It looked too late as Iguazu Falls was still over two lengths down well inside the final furlong. However he seemed to get inspired to quicken as the eventual runner up STIMULATION (37) ranged alongside him, and the pair bore down on the winner BEACON LODGE (37) rapidly in the last hundred yards, prompting a three way photo finish.

Iguazu Falls had been one of the easiest winners of the season two runs back at Kempton and again pulled against a slow early pace when going down by just three parts of a length to the smart River Proud in a Group 3 after that. He looks the best prospect to come out of this race to me. Indeed I would not be at all surprised to see him develop into a Group 1 horse.

Beacon Lodge is clearly useful. But it didn't look like he was idling in front. The second and third were gaining on him hand over fist at the finish, and I'm convinced he would have been third if they had not met traffic problems.

Stimulation experienced identical problems to Iguazu Falls and finished really strongly. It could be he's just going to be a seven furlong horse. But he certainly ran like he'd get the mile here and I like his chances of winning in Group company next year.

JACK DAWKINS IS GROUP CLASS

It's becoming ever more clearer that the revival in Henry Cecil's fortunes is not a fluke caused by one or two unusually good horses that a declining trainer has happened to acquire in his twilight years. He's now steadily building up his team to the point where it once more ranks as one of the best in British racing.

Yet more evidence of this was provided when JACK DAWKINS (37) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a nursery winner all season when taking a red hot 2YO handicap over a mile at Doncaster.

Jack Dawkins has won both times he's run beyond sprint trips and is bred to get a mile and a quarter, perhaps a bit more. I imagine he'll be starting off at that distance in Listed or Group company next season when his logical early target would be the Prix du Jockey Club if he proves good enough.

TRANSCEND IS A SMART SPRINTER

Sometimes when you're calculating speed ratings for a minor meeting you get a surprise when one race is a whole lot faster than the others. Usually when you check you find that lines of form and a comparison with times of the other races indicate it wasn't really that quick. If they do you'll generally find that the slower races were really slow run affairs and that a check back on previous meetings at the same course suggests a much lower going allowance and commensurately lower speed rating than appears necessary at first glance.

However, having gone through all these checks, I have to say that the three year old TRANSCEND (39) put up a seriously good Group class time to win a very minor sprint handicap at Brighton. In awarding the big rating I'm assuming that the going was faster than at the track's previous fourteen meetings and quicker than any previous occasion where the Turftrax going stick has read 9.0 or lower. So yes he really did run that fast.

This was only the second occasion that Transcend has run as short a distance as six furlongs. The previous one was last time out off a near six week lay-off where he led the race on his side of the track till headed in the last strides.

It may turn out that there is some other reason for the phenomenal improvement Transcend showed here. All I can say for sure is that right now he is massively under-rated by the handicapper and looks a very interesting prospect indeed.

Runner-up TAMINO (37) had won three of the four most recent times that he'd previously gone six furlongs or a very stiff five on good or faster turf. His handicap mark is an insanely low 70, so he really ought to be able to win very soon. The problem would be the softer ground which prevails at this time of the year. If he were mine I'd give him another shot at the Poly. But I'd step him up to seven furlongs as horses tend to want a bit longer on the artificial surface when they make the switch from turf.

MONET'S GARDEN - CHAMPION OF THE NORTH

LEISLINGTAYLOR A FAST NOVICE CHASER

LESLINGTAYLOR (38) won in seriously fast time for a novice chase debutante when scoring at Aintree. He was made to look rather novicey as the leaders went off way too fast in the first half mile. During that time Leslingtaylor jumped big and rather straddled his fences as he did what he had to in order to keep himself safe while clearly being stretched. But he jumped a lot more efficiently when the pace slowed. After that it was simply a mater of his jockey biding his time till the early pace told on the front runners. This began to happen entering the straight. So Leslingtaylor was nudged along to close the gap, go level at the last and then use his flat race speed to clear way and win easing up.

My gut feel on watching this was that Leslingtaylor could get forced into errors in a high class chase at two miles. I think he's going to prove best over two and a half. However it was quite some performance to make such a fast winning debut in Listed company over fences that have claimed a higher percentage of fallers in the last dozen years than any UK track barring the adjacent National course. Leslingtaylor looks likely to be winning better races than this.

WILLYANWOODY SHOULD WIN AGAIN

WILLYANWOODY (36) became the latest in a long string of winning pointers to make a successful debut under rules for trainer Paul Nicholls when coming home by a wide margin at Exeter. He posted a Listed class time and wouldn't need to improve much to become a solid Cheltenham candidate.

Nicholls warned that Willyanwoody dislikes soft ground. So no doubt his form will end up looking patchy by the time the Festivals come around in the Spring. I say this because it's well nigh impossible to tell the true state of the ground from official going reports in Britain. This means it's highly likely Willyanwoody will end up running on unsuitable going once or twice. On faster going I'd be wary of opposing him in novice company.

SANTANDO GETS HIS ACT TOGETHER OVER FENCES

SANTANDO (36) has basically been a disappointment over jumps for a horse that was borderline pattern class on the flat. But last week at Folkestone he finally produced a fast time when winning a three mile one furlong novice chase.

This was the longest distance Santando has ever tried over jumps, and it's interesting that his two previous NH wins have come on the only occasions he's encountered soft ground since his losing debut over timber. It looks like nowadays he needs a serious test of stamina to produce his best form.

I'll be very interested in Santando's chances next time if he goes over three miles plus, especially if there's cut in the ground.

FREE GIFT AND MR BOO BETTER THAN THEY'RE RATED

FREE GIFT (36) and MR BOO (36) broke the course record when they dead heated for a 2m 5f chase at Folkestone. Both look under-rated by the official handicapper if my ratings are any guide.

Free Gift seems best at less than three miles on right-handed tracks when the going is good or faster. He's very consistent in these circumstances, having reached the first two nine times out of ten.

Mr Boo is harder to read. He would have won five of his last eight chase starts but for tipping up with the race won at Sandown on one occasion. I don't know why he's run a couple of clunkers at this point. I need to see him run more times to come up with a theory. Right now all I can say is he should win again soon.

LITERATO AND EAGLE MOUNTAIN ARE SPECIAL

I spent a long time trying to find a way to find a way to interpret the time LITERATO (43) clocked in the Champion Stakes to suggest it wasn't the joint fastest of the season. But there's no way I could do it. Lines of form from the horses he beat plus a comparison with times of the other races on the card all point to him equalling the very best performances of former clear leader Dylan Thomas on my ratings.

WINDSOR KNOT SHOULD GO FOR PREMIO ROMA

Godolphin have a lot of horses that in my opinion suffer from being considered as second division by their stable. WINDSOR KNOT (40) is one of them. With almost any other yard he would surely have been given a shot at a Group 1 by now.

Last week Windsor Knot again showed why he deserves a chance at Group 1 company with a win in a red hot Group 3 at Newmarket. He's now earned speed ratings of 40, 41 and 40 from me. That's right on the borderline of Group 1, and good enough to win some races at the top level.

Windsor Knot always sees to need his seasonal debut and it seems clear that he doesn't stay a mile and a half. He's now won four times out of six at ten furlongs or less following his seasonal debut. His two losses were photo finish seconds to horses that my speed ratings indicate are Group 1 class. Both those horses, Tam Lin and Stage Gift, were acquired by Godolphin soon after they beat Windsor Knot. So clearly they see him as a very good yardstick for Group 1 prospects. Now I think they should give him a shot to prove he's more than a yardstick. And there's an ideal opportunity coming up in next month's Premio Roma. That race is often the weakest middle distance Group 1 of the season, and it's invariably run on the softer going that Windsor Knot seems to prefer. He'd probably start favourite if he ran, and would deserve to according to my ratings.

Runner-up MASHAAHED (39) would also make an interesting contender for the Italian race. He too doesn't seem to stay twelve furlongs. He also looked not to get home when asked to run the extended ten furlongs at York on heavy ground. Otherwise his form in what my calculations suggest were strongly run 9-10 furlong races on good or slower ground is pretty much spotless.

This race was only the second that BLUE KSAR (39) has lost in six tries when the official going description has had the word 'soft' in it. The other was when he got beat a little over five lengths in the QEII. He ran a close third and is probably always going to be a tough nut to crack in these conditions.

TELL (39) ran a promising race to finish a close fourth. He bowled along in the lead, got slightly done for pace when the gallop quicked three furlongs out and was rallying at the line despite being crowded out by the second and third. I note with interest that he's entered up in the Prix Perth at Saint-Cloud next month. This was an excellent trial for that race.

SMART ENOUGH MORE THAN READY FOR GROUP COMPANY

SMART ENOUGH (39) won in Group 2 class time at York last year and looked a tremendous prospect. But he clearly had some sort of a setback because he was off for nearly a year and only returned recently. He was backward and nervous in the preliminaries before his first run back and probably needed his next couple of starts too. But last week at Bath he returned to something like his best to win a hot little Conditions race.

It's interesting to note that on this occasion Smart Enough did not make all the running as he has in all his previous wins. He was happy to be settled in second place. This new evidence of tractability bodes well for the future.

Smart Enough is due to run again in a few weeks and apparently has a choice of British, Italian and German engagements. Wherever he goes I'd be wary of opposing him. He's now shown that he can win on soft going and firm, on tight tracks and galloping ones and while making the running or sitting off the pace.

SHORT SKIRT DESERVES TO BE FAVOURITE FOR LYDIA TESIO

WORLD SPIRIT SHOULD WIN AGAIN

WORLD SPIRIT (37) won a Fillies handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack in a time that suggests she's capable of earning black type. She would now have won all four times she's run around a turn in fields smaller than 12 and at trips shorter than 10 furlongs but for one photo finish loss. These circumstances aren't hard to find so I expect to see her winning again soon.

Runner-up TENDER THE GREAT (36) doesn't seem to quite get a mile unless the going is lightning fast. So the quick surface and 1 in 43 gradient from the six furlong point clearly helped her here. Over seven furlongs on other tracks or up to a mile here I'd be inclined to bet Tender The Great next time. This was her best ever race on her first run at Lingfield. Clearly she likes the place.

TRAMANTANO NEEDS TO BE KEPT FRESH

TRAMANTANO (36) who his first start on the flat. And he has won first time out three of the four seasons he's raced over jumps, finishing second in his sole defeat. He's yet to win in thirteen other starts. So clearly he's best when fresh, as you'd expect from a horse that's had a litany of physical problems.

Tramantano's latest win came off a near two year lay-off in a decent novice chase at Cheltenham. He's run a bit quicker than this over hurdles, so I suspect he's going to prove a worthy candidate for the Arkle - if he can be kept fresh and sound for that race.

Horses of this type are normally best on their first two starts of the season and then need rests of at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter. No doubt trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies will adopt a schedule along these lines for Tramantano. So I'd be wary of assuming the horse won't hold his form till March. Few novice chasers run this fast the first time they try fences.

DEEP PURPLE A DECENT NOVICE HURDLER

I don't know how good DEEP PURPLE (37) will turn out to be. But I need to report that he ran a good time when winning a Listed event at Kempton. He's now unbeaten in four starts over timber and is clearly better than most early season novices. It looks rather likely he needs fast ground seeing that all his five wins to date have been scored on such going and he ran below form on soft on the flat. This being so it could be he'll have trouble winning as the ground gets softer and will bounce back to form when it dries out again in the Spring.

GWANAKO AND POUVOIR ARE HIGH CLASS HURDLERS

The race that I still insist on calling the Free Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow is often a hot contest. It certainly was this year as I awarded the winner GWANAKO (41) and runner up POUVOIR (41) speed ratings that suggest both are high class hurdlers.

I concede that the fact the hurdle races were switched to the flat course for this meeting may cast some doubt over the big rating I've awarded the race. But there were two other hurdle races run over the same course and distance and a comparison with the times recorded in both those contests point to the same big speed rating I've given Gwanako.

Gwanako has now won all six times he's run over hurdles or fences and is actually fast enough to be considered a viable Champion Hurdle candidate if my ratings are any guide.

Pouvoir too is very fast indeed. The caveat with him is that he almost certainly needs to be fresh to produce his best. I first suggested this when Pouvoir earned the biggest speed rating I gave a juvenile hurdler last season to score at Kempton in January. His subsequent form bears out the idea. It now seems highly likely that he's good for his first two starts of the season but then needs a break of at least six weeks between his completed starts thereafter in order to run well again. With a bit of racing luck he would have won four of the five most recent times he'd been fresh in this way prior to this smart run.

Wherever Pouvooir goes next time out I would not care to oppose him. He is undoubtedly the best handicapped hurdler in training on this performance and is surely going to win something big this term. And his best chance will surely be next time out when he'll still be fresh.

OSPREY VIEW (37) only finished a distant third. But I still reckon he'll be franking this form soon. He'd won three of his last four starts before this run and should be able to win again soon.

HOBBS HILL A SMART NOVICE CHASER

HOBBS HILL (38) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I gave a novice hurdler last season when romping home at Folkestone. Now he's gone and run almost as fast to win on his chasing debut at Hexham.

Hobbs Hill is clearly very hard to keep sound. He'll be nine in a couple of months and this was only the seventh time he's made it to the racecourse. He clearly has any amount of ability though and I'd be wary of opposing him, especially when there's a bit of cut in the ground.

Runner up MODICUM (38) also ran a pattern class time as a novice hurdler last term and was unlucky to bump into such a smart rival in a minor novice chase like this. He pulled 43 lengths clear of the third and is clearly going to be tough to beat in novice chases. Seeing that he's younger and sounder than the winner he's probably the more likely of the pair to make it to the Arkle next March. Before then he should be able to win something decent.

TAJAAWEED A SOLID DERBY PROSPECT

TAJAAWEED (35) clocked a very good time for a two year old making its racecourse debut over a mile when winning at Nottingham. He is undoubtedly a Group class horse and looks one of the best prospects we've seen for next year's Derby so far.

Tajaaweed, is a big, strong tall, mature, good-bodied, handsome horse who looks sure to develop into a middle-distance runner. He was always moving well but only began to look really impressive in the last furlong when his obvious stamina came into play on the soft ground. He simply powered away full of run, despite running green and drifting towards the rail when clear (something most inexperienced horses have a tendency to do).

If the ground comes up soft for the Racing Post Trophy I would consider Tajaaweed carefully. He could easily be a Group 1 horse. The only question I have about him right now is whether he can act on fast going. Certainly at a mile I'd say he needs cut in the ground to make a race enough of a stamina test for him.

TRICK OR TREAT SHOULD STAY IN TRAINING

TRICK OR TREAT (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win the Princess Royal Stakes at Ascot. Her trainer, James Given, attributed the big run to the fact she was running on softer ground than she'd been running on recently. And a study of the going allowances I produce for my speed ratings suggest he's right.

It looks clear that Trick Or Treat needs the kind of stamina test that can only be provided by a slow surface or a very stiff track. So far she has run on ground that I rate genuinely good or slower or in a very stiff track eight times. And she's won five of those eight times. One of her losses was a second place finish in a very slow run race which can't have suited her. Another was a runner up placing to the very smart Anna Pavlova who may very well win a Group 1 before the season is out. Her other defeat on slower ground came when she ran third to the high class fillies Peeping Fawn and Allegretto in the Yorkshire Oaks.

With a Group win and a Group 1 placing to her name I guess Trick Or Treat has now done enough to warrant being retired to stud. But if she were mine I'd keep her in training as my speed ratings suggest she could be placed to win a fillies' Group 1 or a Group 2 against colts. All she needs is a bit of cut in the ground.

Runner-up QUEEN'S BEST (39) would also be interesting if she were kept in training at five. She got hampered when second in fast time the first time she ran a middle distance on turf. But her only loss at a longer trip in three subsequent attempts before this came when she ran a short head second to the very smart Four Sins at the Curragh. This run was her best ever according to my speed ratings and it came over the longest distance she's tried, a mile and a half. I'll be very interested in her chances if she runs again.

The progressive SAMIRA GOLD (38) was unlucky to come up against two fillies so good in a Group 3 contest. She equalled her best speed rating to take third and continues to look a great prospect.

BRISK BREEZE (38) also equalled her best speed rating to finish a close fourth. She's been unlucky to run in a year when there is such a strong bunch of mile and a half fillies in training. It's unlikely that there will be so many good fillies and mares around next year so again it would be a smart move to keep her in training. She's fast enough to win in Group company.

BEST ALIBI CAN DO BETTER

The Godolphin four year old BEST ALIBI (36) was strongly fancied to make a winning comeback in a hot Conditions race at York. But he got worked up before the race and went off too fast in the early stages, setting such a strong pace that even the habitual front-runner Dunaskin was eased back into the chasing pack.

Best Alibi looked the winner with two furlongs to go. Soon after though his effort began to tell and he tired to finish a respectable third. He's got some smart form to his name and is clearly better than this. He might yet develop into a candidate for the Dubai Sheema Classic which will no doubt once more be his big target next Spring. If he runs again this term he'll almost certainly be calmer. A lot of horses get agitated on their first run back off a lay-off, just as Best Alibi did here.

The winner FAIRMILE (39) is almost boringly consistent. He's a stablemate of the winner but doesn't look to have the ability to be competitive in Group 1 company like Best Alibi (who was third in the Irish Derby). He just hits the same Group 2/3 rating all the time. Nonetheless he deserves a Group win.

Runner up SUNSHINE KID (37) was one of the best two year olds of last season according to my speed ratings. He actually earned a rating of 38 from me for his win on soft ground at Newbury. Normal improvement would see him hit 40 or better, at least Group 2 class. He's yet to run that quick but it's worth pointing out that this season he hasn't yet encountered the soft ground that produced his big run last term. When he does I'd be very interested in his chances.

I liked the way CHARLIE TOKYO (36) was finishing off the searching gallop to take a close fifth. His three wins since his two year old days have come on soft and heavy ground and at Pontefract, the stiffest track in Britain. It seems to me that he wants a greater test of stamina than is normally provided over ten furlongs. He lost his only previous try over a mile and a half by just a short head. I want to see him step up to that sort of trip again.

CONFRONT IS GROUP CLASS

CONFRONT (36) ran a Group 3 class time to win the Hyperion Conditions Stakes at Ascot and is clearly a useful horse. He's bred for middle-distances so I suspect the slower surface helped him show improved form from his debut second.

It's always tough to rate a lightly raced horse off one big run like this. Experience tells me that you can only ever tell that a horse is Group class from such a run and not whether it's Group 1, 2 or 3. Seeing that he had to be driven out to win though I'm inclined to believe he's only a Group 3 prospect. So I'd favour running him in the Horris Hill Stakes rather than the Racing Post Trophy, those being the two options given by his trainer if he turns out again this season.

HIGHLAND LEGACY LOOKS USEFUL

The owner's phone must have been ringing off the hook with big offers from jumping stables after HIGHLAND LEGACY (36) romped home in a two mile handicap at Newbury. Certainly this big strong three year old has the build for the Winter game. But he's not in the Horses In Training sale and I imagine his connections will be wanting to keep him in the reasonable hope that he'll develop into as good a horse as his very smart half brother High Accolade.

Highland Legacy was always moving best and moved up from about tenth place to be just a length or so off the lead with around three furlongs to run, having to switch around a wall of horses to reach that position in the middle of the course. He hung there for a long time, cruising along, with his jockey clearly intent on delaying his challenge. With a furlong and a half to go he made his move but soon after he did so Highland Legacy shifted his head slightly to look at the stands side running rail which he instantly made a bee line for. His jockey decided not to fight him because he clearly had the race won. And once he got to the rail Highland Legacy began to stride clear to win rather impressively, with a fair bit in hand.

The pace Highland Legacy shoed to pick up the leaders suggests to me that, like High Accolade, he's not going to need two miles to produce his best even though he clearly stays the trip well. I would not be at all surprised to see him effective back at a mile and a half, a trip he's already won over.

Highland Legacy is at least Listed class on this run. He's clearly still green and might just improve to be as good as his Group winning half brother. In any event I wouldn't want to oppose him if he turns out again this season. And if one of the big jumping owners does manage to buy him I'd see him as a tremendous prospect for juvenile hurdles.

JEWELLED DAGGER CAN WIN AGAIN

JEWELLED DAGGER (37) ran a Listed class time to run away with a minor handicap at York. My read of his form is that he doesn't get home on a really stiff track or stay beyond nine furlongs on any course. In addition his four wide margin losses on Polytrack suggest he's no good on the artificial surface.

This win was the fourth success in five tries on relatively level turf courses at less than ten furlongs for Jewelled Dagger. His sole loss in these circumstances to date was a second place finish to the useful Group race Samira Gold.

No doubt the handicapper will increase Jewelled Dagger's current mark of 78 significantly after this. But even a ten pound penalty would leave him eligible for races below his true class, so I think he's worth following.

THE GREY BERRY CAN WIN BETTER RACES THAN THIS

I thought that THE GREY BERRY (38) was a certainty to win at York last week. But he just went under by a neck to the smart filly FLYING CLARETS (38).

The Grey Berry was off to a slow start and then seemed to be prompted to be much too keen after being vigorously hustled by his jockey to pick up the lost ground. He did so quickly but then wasted energy by throwing his head around for another couple of furlongs.

Entering the straight it looked likely that The Grey Berry was going to have trouble finding a run. Sure enough he found himself in a pocket until two furlongs out. He still looked to have the race won though as he was always going better than anything else. However as he ranged up alongside the front running winner Flying Clarets it became evident jockey Paul Hanagan had cleverly kept a little up his sleeve. She produced a spurt and was able to just hold him at bay.

This defeat does nothing to diminish my enthusiasm for The Grey Berry. He remains a highly promising horse. He was simply beaten by a clever bit of riding from Paul Hanagan.

In fact Paul Hanagan seems to get the very best out of Flying Clarets. He's been aboard for all four of her wins and has scored on her four of the five times he's ridden her on dead flat galloping tracks below pattern class at trips of 8-10 furlongs.

BARNEY MCGREW IS A SMART SPRINTER

BARNEY MC GREW (38) is an excitable horse. He tends to get worked up before his races and pulls hard. For this reason I think he shows too much speed to be effective on anything but a fast surface and at sprint trips. In addition I suspect he needs a bit of cover. He lost on his debut but has won all four times he's run in sprints on fast ground in fields bigger than ten since.

Barney Mc Grew scored his latest win in seriously fast time on Lingfield's Polytrack. I'd be wary of opposing him if he returns on the surface or somehow manages to find good ground on turf in a field of eleven or more.

Runner up CAPRICORN RUN (37) would have been winning for the third time in his last four tries over six furlongs on fast ground if he hadn't come up against such a smart winner. I see him as a likely Polytrack winner over six furlongs in the near future.

JUST BOND LOVES WOLVERHAMPTON

I don't know why JUST BOND (36) always runs so well at Wolverhampton. But he does. In fact his win at the course last week was the seventh time he's scored in his last eleven starts at the course. He's gone very close in three of his losses too and has basically only ever beaten himself when running at his favourite track by hanging or losing ground at the start.

Just Bond has lost all seventeen times he's run anywhere else, but at Wolverhampton I'll always be wary of opposing him.

GORDSONSVILLE CAN WIN AGAIN

GORDONSVILLE (36) developed a reputation for being a non-trier after running second four times in maiden company (on three occasions by half a length or less). But he showed no character flaws when romping home in a Wolverhampton maiden by five lengths.

It looks like Gordsonville was simply green rather than reluctant before. He should certainly be able to follow up this win in handicap company if my ratings are any guide.

NATAGORA LOOKS LIKE SHE'LL STAY THE MILE

I loved the way that NATAGORA (38) won the Cheveley Park Stakes. She was always cruising along in a narrow lead in the early stages and kept moving well to pull well clear of the rest as the smart sprinter FLEETING SPIRIT (38) made a desperate bid while hard ridden through the last furlong. She finished full of run and looked to have a fair bit in hand.

I got the strong feeling watching this win that Natagora would have been able to pull out a good deal more if Fleeting Spirit had managed to get upsides. It also looked clear she would have had absolutely no problem keeping going for another two furlongs. As I've noted before she is built and bred for longer trips and repeatedly runs like she wants further.

Natagora's sire did run second in a Group 1 at six furlongs but he was by Sunday Silence and won a Group 2 over a mile and placed over longer. Her dam won over ten furlongs. And the eight wins scored by her progeny other than Natagora were all over nine furlongs or more. In fact two of her other three foals to race have shown decent form over jumps.

I think it's significant that Pascal Bary has kept Natagora to straight courses and took the trouble to ship her to Newmarket when he could so easily have run her around a turn over a more suitable distance at home in the Prix Marcel Boussac instead. This suggests strongly to me that he intends to aim her at the 1000 Guineas next year rather than the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches. He suggested this himself after the race too. That being so quotes as high as 16-1 for the fillies' Classic at Newmarket seem rather big to me. She'll be nothing like that price if, as I strongly suspect, she hoses up in the Prix Imprudence first time out next year.

SANBUCH A TERRIFIC EBOR PROSPECT

If the bookies were betting ante-post on next year's Ebor right now I'd be having a bit on SANBUCH (39). He's trained by Luca Cumani who has such a fantastic record in the race and established himself as his stable's best prospect for the race by far with a terrific run in a red hot mile and a half handicap at Newmarket.

Sanbuch, like the winner MALT OR MASH (39) was held up at the back of the big field in a race run at a strong gallop. He made a strong run but just failed to get there by half a length.

This was a tremendous run by Sanbuch. But I wouldn't bet on him reproducing it that often over a trip this short. It looks clear that he takes after his dam whose best performance came when winning a 2m 1f handicap at Bath. All his best runs have been in strongly run races like this one. In slow run races he's run below form at the mile and a half or less he's been kept to so far.

Sanbuch looks a certain future Group race winner at the St Leger trip and beyond. But Cumani will surely restrict his campaign to a couple of starts in the first part of next season in order to keep his official mark low enough to give him a shot at the Ebor.

Malt Or Mash bolted six furlongs before the start at Glorious Goodwood and got very excited at the Ebor meeting when unseating his rider in the paddock. Clearly he has a problem with big crowds. But he was calm enough before the biggish crowd at the Cambridgeshire meeting. So it looks like continuing exposure to large gatherings of people is helping him calm down.

Outside of those two races where he spoiled his chances with his antics before the start Malt Or Mash has run three times at middle distances and won every single time. He's the best mile and a half horse Richard Hannon has had in years and will be very interesting when he steps up to Group company. Before then, like Sanbuch, he can surely be placed to win a valuable handicap.

It's worth noting that Malt Or Mash has the build of a jumper and would be a fantastic juvenile hurdling prospect.

Third placed BANDAMA (37) had a bit of trouble finding a run and, like many hold up horses, may well be at his best in fields smaller than twelve. His two wins to date have been in races with eleven runners. He's also run well in a bigger field on Polytrack, a surface that makes it easier for horses to find a run according to my research. Next time Bandama runs on the Polytrack or in a smallish field on fast turf around a mile and a half I'll be very interested in his chances.

YES PIPEDREAMER COULD BE GROUP 1 - BUT NOT ON FIRM GROUND

PIPEDREAMER (39) looked as though he was going to simply run away with the Cambridgeshire at the two furlong marker before the three length gap he opened up was closed down late by DOCOFTHEBAY (38). He still looked to win with a fair bit in hand though and might well develop into a Group 1 horse as others have predicted.

However there is a caveat. Pipedreamer is a big, heavy horse. Trainer John Gosden was hesitant about running him on the going until he'd walked the course and assured himself it wasn't too firm.

The going allowances I make for my speed ratings show that Pipedreamer has won on the three slowest surfaces he's encountered and lost the two times he's run on the fastest ground. And his worst performance came on his debut, the only time he's run on what I call 'superfast' going. Superfast is the description I use when the going is at a point where it cannot speed the horses up any further.

The going is often superfast at the Big Spring and Summer meetings in Britain. So Pipedreamer is almost certainly going to disappoint a few times next season. But when he encounters genuinely good to firm or slower ground he is surely going to win in at least Group 2 company.

I'd be inclined to bet against Pipedreamer when he makes his seasonal debut in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. He's a big horse that must be hard to get fit and will surely need the run. In addition that race is often run on very fast ground. Thereafter though I see him developing into a smart ten furlong horse on slower going.

DOCOFTHEBAY (38) once more employed his ultra-late running tactics to slice through the huge field very late. He's been remarkably consistent and has run one big race after another. Interestingly though his two biggest speed ratings and two wins in good company have been over seven furlongs. I suspect that when he makes the inevitable step up to pattern company he'll prove best over that specialist distance.

RAHIYAH COULD WIN A GROUP 1 NEXT SEASON

RAHIYAH (39) was unlucky to have been born into one of the strongest generations of three year old fillies in years. But with most of the best ones retiring at the end of the season she looks a great prospect for next year following her big run against older males in a hot Listed race at Redcar.

Rahiyah closed well, moving strongly, in the closing stages. And I'm convinced she would have been a clear winner if the race had been over a mile rather than seven furlongs.

Obviously Rahiyah needs fast ground. But the big all-aged fillies races over a mile are usually run on such going.

With Group 1 races like the Matron Stakes, the Prix d'Astarte and Sun Chariot Stakes to shoot for Rahiyah will surely be kept in training next season. She's fast enough to win one of those races according to my speed ratings

BLACKAT BLACKITTEN IS GROUP CLASS

BLACKAT BLACKITTEN (38) ran the third fastest time ever clocked over a mile at Newmarket when running away with a good handicap last week. If he hadn't lost by a short head when meeting traffic trouble on one occasion he would now have won all four times he's run beyond six furlongs.

I suspect that Blackat Blackitten's connections are being optimistic in nominating next year's Cambridgeshire as the long term target for their horse, and not because he's not good enough. The concern has to be that his official mark will already be around 95 after this win and that it's bound to go up well over 100 if he keeps showing this sort of form. This being so I'd be surprised if Blackat Blackitten isn't racing exclusively in pattern company by this time next year. He's certainly fast enough to take a Group 3 on this showing.

MATSUNOSUKE WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT ON POLY

My research suggests that Polytrack mimics firm turf and eliminates the need to switch a horse to the fastest part of the track (basically because there isn't one). This being so it makes sense that MATSUNOSUKE (39) should take to the surface as he is a firm ground hold up specialist that often has to be switched when making his late charge on turf.

In fact Matsunosuke earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given him when blasting home by three lengths in only a fifth of a second off the track record at Wolverhampton.

If he were mine I'd rest Matsunosuke for a couple of months and bring him back for the AW season during the Winter. He could easily rack up a whole string of wins on the Poly seeing how fast he ran here. But he's already had sixteen runs this season, so I wouldn't like to bet that he'll hold his form till then if he's kept on the go now.

SHINE AND RISE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

SHINE AND RISE (36) needs to get his handicap mark up to 90 if he is to realize his owner's ambition of taking him to Hong Kong. That should be no problem judged on his win at Nottingham where he won nicely in a time that would give him a shot in Listed company.

Shine And Rise ought to be able to win at least one more time in the closing weeks of the season and that should be enough to get his mark up high enough for him to be eligible for Hong Kong racing.

CROCODILE BAY IMPROVING

Dandy Nicholls specializes in taking over older handicappers whose handicap marks have plummeted and reviving their form with a switch to sprinting. CROCODILE BAY (36) obviously didn't read the script because he bounced back to form with a win over a mile in fast time at Newcastle.

Experience has taught me not to try and over-interpret the form of a horse that Dandy Nicholls has improved. All you can ever say is that one of his charges is now back to its best and is likely to win again. That's certainly the case with Crocodile Bay.

JUDD STREET KEEPS ON IMPROVING

Sprinters hit their peak as five year olds, and many improve quite markedly when they reach that age. This certainly is the case with JUDD STREET (40) who ran a Group 2 class time to edge out the smart ROWE PARK (40) over the minimum distance at Newmarket.

Judd Street seems to be at his best over five furlongs on fast ground. And he can handle a turn. So it's probably a smart idea to take him to Hong Kong as his connections suggested after the race. I suspect he'd find things tougher at the Dubai Carnival, another possibility they put forward, as there aren't many five furlong races staged at the fixture and the competition is a bit tougher than in Hong Kong.

Rowe Park confirmed that he is a very hard horse to beat over five furlongs, especially on a straight course. Both he and the winner are going to be winning in Group company sooner rather than later if my ratings are any guide.

MIDDLE PARK SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED

The Middle Park Stakes rarely lives up to its Group 1 billing these days, and that proved the case yet again this year when DARK ANGEL (35) scrambled home in a time that's about average for Listed class two year olds at this time of year.

Clearly the Pattern Committee need to act and downgrade the Middle Park to a Group 3 contest. It's inflated status is misleading. Group 1 juvenile colts are rarely raced over a trip as short as six furlongs this late in the season nowadays. The game has changed.

The only way to justify keeping the Middle Park as a Group 1 race would be if its distance were increased to seven furlongs. But that would be a bit odd seeing that the seven furlong Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes is staged at the same track a few weeks later. Perhaps the wisest thing to do would be abandon the race altogether and use the prize money for a more worthwhile contest.

ASK HAS A MAJOR CHANCE IN ITALY

ASK (41) showed that his big reputation is deserved by winning the Cumberland Lodge Stakes in borderline Group 1 class time. Right now he's too lightly raced to assess with any confidence. But I note with interest that he would have won all four times he's run in single figure fields but for one short head loss. He's lost all four times he's run in bigger fields and met trouble in running in one of them. It could be he doesn't like being crowded.

Field size shouldn't be a problem in Ask's big target, the Gran Premio del Jockey Club at San Siro. That race has only attracted a field bigger than nine once in the last fourteen years. Ask looks to have a major chance of taking that race and looks set to be a big player in the top mile and a half races from now on.

Runner up ZAHAM (40) ran his best previous race over 11 furlongs, the longest trip he'd tried before, when a close third in a red hot Group 3. Here he improved again for an extra furlong, earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old all season.

Zaham now ranks as one of the best middle-distance horses Mark Johnston has ever trained on my ratings. He'll surely be kept in training as he clearly has a major chance of developing into a contender for the top Group 1 middle-distance races.

CANDIDATO ROY SHOULD GO FOR FORET

CANDIDATO ROY (41) ran a seriously fast time to take the valuable totesport.com Challenge Cup at Ascot. He earned the same speed rating from me here as I awarded him for an earlier win over six and a half furlongs at Nad Al Sheba. Both runs are fast enough to give him a real shot in the Prix Foret.

Runner-up SHEVCHENKO (40) is clearly a very smart horse over seven furlongs and would probably be my pick if he lines up for the Challenge Stakes on the twentieth of this month.

Third placed DOCOFTHEBAY (40), unlike the first two, is not a seven furlong specialist. He's shown before that he can stay further and looks a very interesting candidate for the Cambridgeshire. I'd be surprised if he doesn't win a Group race sometime in his next few runs.

DON'T UNDER-RATE PERFECT STAR

PERFECT STAR (39) ran Ascot's mile only 15 hundredths of a second slower than Ramonti managed in the QEII on the same card. And there's nothing wrong with the timing mechanism. She is that good. If she hadn't twice bumped into the very smart colt Schevenko she would have won all six times she's run less than ten furlongs since her losing racecourse debut. I would bet Perfect Star to win pretty much any fillies' race off this run. She certainly looks more than capable of taking a Group race before the season is over.

PROVISO AND LISTEN LOOK OAKS NOT GUINEAS CANDIDATES

LISTEN (36) was possibly lucky to beat the French filly PROVISO (35) after the latter had been repeatedly forced back in the early stages. Indeed I'd given Proviso a rating of 37 for her win at Deauville which suggests she might have won by a length if she'd had a clear run.

In any event, watching the race I got the strong impression I was looking at two candidates for the Oaks rather than the 1000 Guineas. Both fillies showed serious stamina to run the last two furlongs a fifth of a second faster than the colts in the Royal Lodge despite going a faster early pace.

Listen is a full sister to Sequoyah whose best ever run was a close fourth in the Oaks. And Proviso is very stoutly bred on her dam's side.

It may be that Listen will prove effective over a mile at three even though I'd bet against it. But I'd be surprised if Proviso does so. She showed tremendous stamina when winning at Deauville off a searching early pace and her shrewd trainer Andre Fabre noted that she got outpaced in the early stages here. If he were going to aim her for the Guineas he would surely have run her at Newmarket just like all his other Guineas candidates over the years.

DUKE OF MARMALADE MUST GO LONGER

I've noted before that RAMONTI (40) is almost boringly consistent. He's been kept to a mile so far this year. But his record suggests that any distance, surface, track or pace scenario will see him produce the same sort of performance which won him the QEII last week.

Ramonti has run a couple of ticks quicker before than he did at Ascot. But he's one of those horses that only ever does enough to win. So I wouldn't go rating the performance of EXCELLENT ART (39) in running him to half a length as being that special.

For me the horse to take out of the race just has to be DUKE OF MARMALADE (39) who rallied so well to finish a close third after making the running for Excellent Art.

Duke Of Marmalade looked far from happy about being cut back to a mile. He is a big strong horse and needed to be stoked up the whole way to set the pace. The way he was coming back at the first two late after seemingly being beaten off endorses the idea that he wants a good deal further than a mile. I still see him as a great candidate for all the big 10-12 furlong Group 1's next season and hope he's given another shot at something decent over a longer trip this term.

NOT A VERY GOOD ROYAL LODGE

I'd be surprised if CITY LEADER (34) or any of the horses that he beat in the Royal Lodge stakes prove to be Classic candidates next year. They ran a slower early pace and a slower final quarter mile than their female counterparts managed in the Fillies Mile.

THERE'S A BIG RACE IN CABINET

CABINET (38) ran a Group class time to go under by just half a length to the smart BUCCELLATI (38) in a valuable ten furlong handicap at Chester. Both he and the winner are progressive three year olds who look set to win good races.

SOUTH CAPE TOUGH TO BEAT OVER 7F AROUND A TURN

SOUTH CAPE (37) clocked a listed class time to win a seven furlong handicap at Chester. He has now won four of the five times he's run what seems to be his specialist distance around a turn.

KIRKLEES A FUTURE GODOLPHIN STAR

KIRKLEES (41) won the Group 1 Gran Criterium in Italy last year. And he showed that he is unquestionably a serious Group 1 horse when winning the Listed Foundation Stakes at Goodwood last week. In doing so he earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old this season.

Godolphin basically focus on older horses these days. So it's understandable that they're simply going to shoot for a Group 3 with Kirklees next time and then put him away till next year. But don't forget his name. This is a high class international performer. I'd be very interested in his chances if he goes for the Dubai Duty Free next Spring. He's that good.

ORDNANCE ROW (39) seems to bang out exactly the same speed figure whenever he gets a bit of cut in the ground and did so again here. He's been unlucky to bump up against very smart rivals both times he's encountered yielding or softer ground in pattern company and should be able to win a Group 3 or even a Group 2 this Autumn.

WINDSOR KNOT (38) surely needed the run off a one year break and it looked like he blew up through lack of fitness in the closing stages after making the running for his two stablemates. He's run a bit quicker than this in the past and should be able to take a Group race within his next few starts.

ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (38) ran a most promising race on his comeback from a slab fracture of his third carpal. That's a pretty serious injury. But a couple of academic papers I found on the web suggest the prognosis is good. The first said that recovery time depends on the severity of the fracture and ranges from four months for the least severe to 12 months for the most. Illustrious Blue was returning after just 4 months so it seems reasonable to assume that his case was on the least severe end of the scale.

Sometimes it's impossible to come up with a good reason why a horse runs a fast time. This was the case with KING CHARLES (37) who won a Classified Stakes at Ascot's big meeting in Listed class time.

Last year King Charles also showed remarkable improvement in the Autumn to take his last three races. So the most likely explanation at this point is that he does best late in the year. This being so it's hard to understand the suggestion from his connections that this may be his last run of the season. The horse surely deserves another shot at victory this term. In this regard I note with interest that he's in a 0-100 handicap at Newmarket later this week. I'd be interested in his chances if he goes there.

ALL MY LOVING CAN STILL WIN SOMETHING DECENT

One thing I know from betting is that luck tends to even itself out over time. If you have a run of bad luck a good one will inevitably follow.

ALL MY LOVING (38) is undoubtedly due for a run of good luck. She has run one big race after another this season and earned seriously big speed ratings from me. In an average season she might well have been unbeaten and won a couple of Classics. This season however is a very strong one for three year old fillies. So I have to report that she has once again lost narrowly in very fast time. This time her defeat came at Ascot at the hands of the smart Brisk Breeze.

BRISK BREEZE (38) finished half a length behind All My Loving in the Park Hill Stakes. And it looks like the softer ground swung things in her favour this time. She remains a great prospect for next season. I'm pretty darned sure that All My Loving is better though and is going to prove it if she's kept in training. I'd still like to see her shoot for the Breeders' Cup Filly & mare Turf as she routinely runs faster than the best American turf fillies according to my speed ratings.

OPERA CAPE A USEFUL SPRINTER IN MUD

There are plenty of horses that can run as fast as OPERA CAPE (37) did over six furlongs to win a Conditions race at Hamilton. But it looks likely that he can run faster.

Opera Cape was always going much the best and it looked like Dettori was nursing him home when he hit the front as he switched his whip four times to prevent the horse running around. Clearly he's still a bit green.

Opera Cape won this race with a fair bit in hand and is a smart horse at sprint trips when the ground is yielding or softer. He's won three of the five times he's got his ground following a recent run at less than a mile. His two losses were places in Group 1's where he got beat less than two lengths.

I don't know quite where Opera Cape goes from here (he holds no Group race entries that I can trace). But if he is kept in training next season I can see him becoming a contender for all the big sprints when there's cut in the ground.

PIVOTAL ANSWER CAN WIN A LISTED RACE

PIVOTAL ANSWER (37) ran fast enough to win a Listed race at Kempton last week. But that still wasn't good enough to beat COUEUR DE LIONNE (37) who broke the course record to edge the decision narrowly. The pair duelled all the way up the straight in a way that only pattern class horses can.

Pivotal Answer is improving all the time according to my speed ratings. And I'd be surprised if this lightly raced filly didn't graduate to pattern company sooner rather than later. She's certainly capable of winning a Listed race on this run.

Couer de Lionne has now won all three times he's run beyond a mile on Kempton's Polytrack but lost his five starts on turf. It could be that he'll turn out to be another of the increasing number of Kempton specialists. But he did run one big race on fast turf so I suspect he can reproduce this form elsewhere as long as the ground is quick. He now goes to the sales so I imagine he'll be running in another country pretty soon. Wherever he goes I'd bet on him being competitive in much more valuable races than this.

SPLENDIDIO IS WORTH FOLLOWING

The British have a fine tradition of re-naming something in order to make a problem go away, and it does seem to work. Britain's Windscale nuclear power station doesn't have anything like the stigma attaching to it following its dreadful accident now that it's been re-named Sellafield. And in horse-racing the abominable sub-selling class 'Banded Stakes' have found far more acceptance now that they've been re-named Classified Stakes (Class 7).

However, whatever you call them you rarely see anything close to what I'd call a racehorse running in one of these appalling contests. But this wasn't the case last week at Folkestone because SPLENIDIO (35) came within a fifth of a second of the course record when running away with a five furlong Class 7 Classified Stakes off a mark of just 45.

I know that many will attribute Splendidio's big win to a favourable draw. But, believe me, a horse doesn't get to within a fifth of a second of a long standing track record at a regularly run distance like this without being a great deal better than Banded Stakes class.

Splendidio showed remarkable improvement to win this race, her first victory in 23 starts. Clearly her new trainer, Marjorie Fife, is doing something right. Whatever it is Splendidio looks to be thriving in her new environment and should be able to win again in the near future.

HOLY SMOKES, IT'S PATMAN!

One interesting trend that I've noticed over the last few seasons is that more and more good novice chasers are starting their seasons early. One such horse is undoubtedly PATMAN DU CHARMIL (37) who clocked a pattern class time to run away with a novice chase at Perth from the useful PREMIER DANE (32).

Right now there are some obvious patterns in the form of Patman Du Charmil. It seems he's best fresh, prefers tight tracks and cannot handle soft or heavy ground. So far he's won all four times he's run on tight tracks on yielding or faster ground off a break longer than a month but lost all 15 times he's run in other circumstances. However he is a young horse and there is some conflicting evidence. He's run well on galloping courses, on soft ground and without a break between his runs and I suspect he'll win in such circumstances before long - especially while he's running in ungraded novice events where he can win without exerting himself too much.

Nicky Richards had won all six times he'd previously run a horse over fences for the first time that earned a racing Post rating of 140 or more over hurdles as Premier Dane did. He would have made it seven out of seven but for his charge bumping into a freakishly fast rival for the off season here. The way that Premier Dane stayed on after getting outpaced here suggests that if anything he actually wants longer than the extended two and a half miles of this race, which was the longest he's tried so far. Seeing how well he stayed on in the County and Scottish Champion Hurdles this is not all that surprising.