AIR FORCE ONE SHOULD IMPROVE IN MUD

Right now, when the top jumpers are having their first runs of the season, it's important to try and distinguish the horses that are going to go on and win more big races from the 'one hit wonders' that excel first time out.

ROLL ALONG (40) does seem to be one of these latter types. He's an excitable sort that gets himself fit at home. He'd won on his four previous seasonal debuts and made it five out of five when taking the valuable United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot.

At the end of the backstretch Roll Along was clearly going just the best even though he was still only in midfield. However he was stretched for quite some way when AIR FORCE ONE (39) kicked on from there and tried to win the race with six furlongs still to run. He got back on the bridle after a while and steadily gained ground to challenge at the last.

Coming up to the last Air Force One looked a sitting duck to Roll Along who has always been a more pacey sort. And do it proved. Carl Llewellyn's charge was able to clear away on the run in to clock as fast time.

Roll Along has shown in the past that he can produce his best after his seasonal debut it he's rested. I'd like to see a break of at least six weeks before I'd be confident about betting him before next season. I'd also prefer to see him kept away from the really big meetings where large crowds gather as his former trainer Mark Pitman said that he is highly strung and he'd be worried about running him in those circumstances. Yes he did manage to run second in the Sun Alliance Chase at Cheltenham but this run was a fair bit better than that on my ratings.

Air Force One jumped impressively except for the last three which he basically clambered over when put under pressure to try and outjump his pursuers. He ran a tremendous race here and impressed me as a likely future big race winner. I loved the way he took control of the race when asked to kick on from the end of the far side.

It does seem to me that Air Force one will improve on much softer ground. He's got a funny stride pattern that makes him look as if he's half climbing into the air. This, together with his obvious lack of acceleration tell me he'll be a much better horse with cut than on the firm surface he ran on here.

Previously I've felt that Air Force One was best on right-handed courses. This makes sense because all his eight wins have been on right-handed tracks. But now that his trainer has said he always comes on for his seasonal debut I'm having second thoughts. Two of his worst left handed losses came first time out, and he can't have that big a problem going left-handed if he can run second at the Cheltenham Festival.

My feeling is that Air Force One has a serious chance of winning the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury next time. And if it buckets down with rain I'd be very wary of opposing him.

GUNGADU (35) was moving really well at the end of the far side and closed up to be bang there with three to jump. He wasn't given a hard time of things when the first two had his measure from the last, and this was a promising seasonal debut.

Gungadu used to be best fresh. But the majority of chasers do change in this regard as they get older. And Gungadu's win off a break of only three weeks in last season's Racing Post Chase signaled that he has done so. I think he will come on quite a lot for this run.

Seeing that he's not a great big strapping sort, I'd say Gungadu will probably not be best served by being kept to handicaps this term. He's not that far off the Gold Cup chasers and surely deserves a few shots at some of the bigger Conditions events. Another thing which sways me to say this is that most of the really valuable handicap chases are over three and a quarter miles or more and Gungadu continues to look like an out and out three miler to me. He's twice failed to stay marathon trips and I don't like the idea of betting him to go even three and a quarter miles until he's shown he can stay that far.

The other obvious thing about Gungadu's form are those two utterly atrocious runs at Aintree, much the worst of his career. Either he dislikes the track or, more likely, he's not very fond of lengthy road journeys from his Somerset base. This being so I'll be inclined to side against Gungadu if he ventures up North again in future.

HELIUM COULD FLOAT OFF WITH FINALE AT CHEPSTOW

When two lightly raced horses engage in a protracted duel, pull well clear of their pursuers and clock a fast final time you should sit up and take notice. I'm a firm believer in the idea that the class of a horse can be measured by the length and duration of challenges it can make and withstand. So when two horses challenge each other repeatedly for a quarter of a mile or more without giving best there's a big chance they’re both smart. If they clock a fast time you can be certain of it.

This was the case with the juvenile hurdle fourth out by HELIUM (36) and SAINGLEND (36) at Warwick. Both horses ran green in the closing stages but ended up running really fast for hurdlers their age.

Helium must have cost his new owners a pretty penny as he was one of the best juvenile hurdlers in France.

On his hurdling debut Helium cruised home at Clairefontaine. He was set to follow up on the same course when a rival refused to let him through on the hedge entering the straight. he was switched around that one but this proved his undoing because when Helium went to win his race just after the last he drifted badly away towards the nearside running rail and was narrowly beaten. He really should have won that race cosily.

Next time out Helium was stepped up in class for a good race at Auteuil where he set a strong pace. Halfway up the straight he was joined by the smart Long Run and dueled with that one until not quite able to go with him in the last hundred yards. He ended up getting beat three lengths while pulling six lengths clear of the rest.

Unlike most juvenile hurdlers, Helium is built and bred for jumping. He's a pretty tall chasing type that has jumped noticeably well. He did that again at Warwick where once more he set off at a strong pace.

Long term Helium will surely be winning three mile chases. But he showed here that right now he can produce smart form at two miles on fast ground and on a tight course over timber.

I can see Helium getting done for speed at the end of a slow run juvenile hurdle because they're all run over short trips. So he'll probably have to continue to force the pace to make his races enough of a stamina test. Later on in the season it will probably be a smart idea to put him against older horses so that he has the chance to go two and a half miles or more.

This early in the season you won't find many juvenile hurdlers better than Helium. So he surely has to go for the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow next month. If it comes up soft there he'd be tough to beat.

It is worth noting that Long Run, the horse that beat Helium in France, is now rated 77 in the official French ratings. That's just one kilo (two pounds) below the biggest rating awarded to a juvenile hurdler in France over the last decade (the top rating being earned by multiple Grade 1 winner Nickname).

Sainglend did very well to run close to a smart rival like Helium on his hurdling debut. He finished distressed two runs back and I can only presume that whatever was ailing him got fixed because he came back off a four month lay off to show massively improved form when winning his only subsequent flat outing at Windsor. He ran even better here and looks a useful prospect.

Sainglend is a more pacey sort than Helium, and much more of a hurdling type. So he should be a lot easier to place. I'm not sure he'd last home on really big, stiff tracks like Cheltenham or Sandown. Until he proves otherwise I'll prefer to bet him on tight courses over timber.

HARVEST QUEEN AND BAHARAH ARE SMART

I though that BAHARAH (39) was a good thing to win a Listed race on the Poly at Lingfield. She won all right but HARVEST QUEEN (39) gave her a terrific race and only just went under. The pair quickly pulled away from the third in the last 100 yards as they fought all the way to the line. They ended up lowering the course record by two fifths of a second.

The fact that trainer Gerard Butler has twice run Baharah in big international races suggests he thinks very highly of her. Indeed he's said as much in interviews. Her performance here justified his opinion.

My belief is that Baharah is best suited to a fast turf or a synthetic surface and is at her best when having a turn to slow the pace down early. She did win one race up the straight when the early pace was slow. But overall she's clearly best around a turn on a fast turf or synthetic surface. She would have won all six times she's run in these conditions but for losing by a short head on her second start through greenness and then bumping into a Group 1 placed colt in Medicine Path when second in very fast time in a Listed race on Poly in February.

Baharah is due to run at the Dubai Carnival. She's fast enough to win a Group 1 race against fillies according to my ratings. So I'm expecting to see her do well there.

Harvest Queen is clearly just as smart as Baharah. Her trainer said she saw too much daylight up the straight last time. Indeed I think she dislikes straight courses as much as she clearly dislikes soft ground. She would have won five times out of five around a turn on a fast surface beyond sprint trips if this photo had gone the other way.

If I had the money I'd buy Harvest Queen and ship her to California where she could race exclusively around a turn on fast surfaces. I reckon she'd win a Grade 1 over there.

CROWDED HOUSE NOT THAT GOOD

CROWDED HOUSE (37) earned rave reviews for his win in the Racing Post Trophy. But I can't find a way to give him the kind of speed rating I've awarded to the best winners of the race. This late in the year a rating of 37 for a two year old only ranks as good Group 2 class.

I concede that this classy looking, middle distance sort only got going late and was really motoring away from his rivals at the finish. But he swerved and bumped the second and third heavily and recovered from this instantly while they both lost a lot of momentum which made his finishing burst look a lot better than it really was.

Crowded House is clearly going to improve over middle distances judged by his physique, pedigree and the way he ran here. But I need to see him do more than this before I jump on the bandwagon and say he's a good ante-post bet for the Derby. In fact my strong suspicion is that he's going to prove a ten furlong horse. So the Derby may well be too far and the Guineas too short.

If there was a Derby horse in the race I think it was the winner's stablemate SKANKY BISCUIT (33) who would have finished a good deal closer but for receiving that hefty bump from Crowded House as that one was sprinting to the line. He himself was finishing strongly at the time and looks a smart performer.

Skanky Biscuit is a well proportioned strong horse horse with a smooth, flowing stride that is built and bred for at least ten furlongs. On his sole previous start he raced a few lengths off a very slow early pace on at Newbury then lost ground when the pace quickened markedly approaching the the two furlong pole. In fact he kept on losing ground for a full furlong. That's how long it took him to find his full stride, accelerate and start gaining ground.

When Skanky Biscuit did finally get going he picked up very strongly. The runner up, Bothy, was really flying by this point and the pair hooked up to duel to the line for the last three quarters of a furlong, quickly pulling away from the rest in the way that only pattern class performers can do.

Skanky Biscuit asserted about fifth yards before the line, enabling his jockey to put his hands down to let his mount coast the final few strides to a narrow win.

It was a useful looking performance. And the most interesting thing about it in light of the Racing Post Trophy is that Skanky Biscuit took so long to reach top gear. A bump at Newbury like the one he received at Doncaster might well have prevented him winning there too.

Skanky Biscuit is clearly wanting middle distances already and looks much more of a future mile and a half horse to my eye than the winner.

Runner up JUKEBOX JORY (34) got into all sorts of trouble. He had to be snatched up off the heels of another horse early, losing valuable ground. Then he had to be switched dramatically to find a run. Finally he took a bump from Skanky Biscuit when that one cannoned away from the winner smashing into him. Who knows how close he'd have gone otherwise. All I can say is he's run quicker before and continues to look like a future Group 2 ten furlong horse to me.

VOY POR USTEDES LOOKING GOOD FOR KING GEORGE

Proof that VOY POR USTEDES (38) was never a natural two miler is that, unlike most of the top casers over the minimum trip, he's never been best fresh. He's a big, rather gross horse that always comes on for his seasonal debut. I'm sure that will prove the case again this year following his promising fourth place finish in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree.

Voy Por Ustedes was never far off the lead and staged a rally on the run in after being knocked back by a blunder at the second last. Watching him run made it clear that he's almost certainly going to prove effective over three miles in the King George. He's already run fast enough to win an average renewal of that contest and looks set to run a big race at Kempton.

The winner was KNOWHERE (40) a very solid Grade 2 class chaser that's tough to beat over trips short of three miles on his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. I was disappointed to hear that Knowhere's next start will be in the Hennessy as I can't see how he'll last the three and a quarter miles at the pace that race is invariably run at. He did manage to win a three mile chase at Cheltenham last year, but that was only because the early pace was a crawl. He also won a point to point, but the time he clocked that day was 21 seconds slower than the fastest race on the card, so clearly that event was slow run too. He's been hammered fifteen lengths plus the other seven times he's gone three miles or more.

It was good to see EXOTIC DANCER (40) bounce back after he lost form after a 'tweaked ligament' and sore back led to him running below his best on the only two starts he managed after Christmas last term.

The way that Exotic Dancer was able to improve so impressively from far back suggests to me that the exaggerated waiting tacts really do suit him best as Jonjo O'Neill suggested after he only managed third when pressing the pace in last year's King George. However I also think O'Neill is right to say Exotic Dancer is better at Chetlenham than Kempton. Indeed he's yet to win in five tries on right handed courses. So I doubt that he'll be winning the King George even though this was the best effort this stuffy horse has ever turned in on his seasonal debut.

One thing I feel sure about is that Exotic Dancer is a proper Grade 1 chaser even though he's lost all seven Grade 1 events he's contested. He's simply been unlucky to have been around in a vintage period for three mile chasers. My sense is that many of the stars that have beaten Exotic Dancer in the past may not be as good this year. That should give him a shot at the big prize his class and consistency deserve.

SNOOPY LOOPY (38) is, I confess, a horse that has slipped under my radar until now. But he matched strides with some of the best chasers for a long way here and ended up keeping on well to finish third.

Snoopy Loopy has had quite a few training setbacks over the years which has led to him being rather lightly raced for a horse that's now ten years of age. However, when his trainer has been able to get a recent run into him he's almost always won or gone close. In fact, when you induce his point to point for he has won nine of the seventeen times that he's had a race within the preceding six weeks and finished in the first three fourteen of those seventeen times. He's already won two valuable handicap chases this season and is more than capable of taking another.

MONET'S GARDEN (34) was, on the face of it, a big disappointment. He had won on his seasonal debut in the five previous seasons that he'd raced. He'd also scored ten of the eleven times that he'd run less than three miles on Northern courses. So it was surprising to see him finish over fifteen lengths back in seventh. However he disputed the lead, jumping really well, at a good pace till just before two out then seemed to blow up through lack of fitness. He was allowed to come home in his own time and clearly needed the run.

It looks like Monet's Garden has simply changed physically, as a lot of chasers do when they hit his age. They go well off a lay off up till a certain age. Then they begin to need a recent run.

OSLOT (38) ran to the same rating as he had when taking the Galway Plate. But in my experience young horses invariably run below their best the first time they take on Championship quality rivals or close to that level. So I continue to suspect that Oslot can improve to better things. Here he kicked on after two out and tried to win his race but tired due to the huge effort of holding off such high class rivals. I bet he keeps on better next time.

KICKS FOR FREE NEEDS TO DO MORE

KICKS FOR FREE (20) jumped nicely on his chasing debut and won what was basically a six furlong sprint from the end of the far side to just after two out at Aintree. The run didn't really tell us much except that he can jump pretty well. And even if I base my estimate of his performance on the time he took from when the pace increased I can only award him a speed rating of 34. Let's say he'd have added another eight lengths to his margin if he'd had company to the end. That would bring his rating to 37, the same as I gave him for his win over hurdles in February. It's good but two or three points off what the best novice chasers run.

Physically Kicks For Free looks like an out and out two and a half mile horse. So I think trainer Paul Nicholls is right to target the big two and a half mile novice chase back at Aintree next Spring. There isn't really a viable target for him at the Cheltenham Festival as the Arkle is too short, the Sun Alliance too long, and he'll probably get too much weight in the Jewson.

The key to Kicks For Free is freshness. Like a lot of horses with a history of breathing problems he's best on his first two starts of the season and then needs breaks of at least five weeks between his starts. In fact so far he would have won all seven times he's started on his first or second start of the year but for one unlucky short head loss at the Cheltenham Festival. He's yet to win in seven outings later in the season. But he's run well after breaks subsequently, so I think he can keep on producing good form unless his connections do something silly and ask him to race too often. Knowing Nicholls, that's unlikely.

Funnily enough the horse that really impressed me in the race was BEDLAM BOY who tired rapidly two out when two lengths down with two to jump, smashed that fence and unseated his rider. He's a lovely big chasing sort with a huge stride that's a joy to watch. He was just loping along most of the way and kept jumping well when he took the lead and stepped up the pace after halfway. But in my experience proper old fashioned chasing sorts like him don't do well in races that feature a slow pace and a brief sprint like this one. They need a solid gallop all the way. When Bedlam Boy gets it I reckon he'll win some nice races, most probably over two and a half miles judged by his physique.

SPECIAL ENVOY (1) was clearly scared of the fences on his chasing debut. He kept slowing up as he approached them and jumped way too big. It's hardly surprising he ended up fading badly. But I wouldn't give up on him as a chaser. Aintree's fences are really tough. They claim a higher percentage of fallers than any other British track barring the National course. There are far easier jumps to be found, for example at Carlisle, Sedgefield and Towcester. I think Special Envoy needs a confidence boosting win over those sort of jumps and against easy opposition before he's asked to take on smart rivals over such stiff fences again.

TATENEN SMART BUT NO ARKLE WINNER

TATENEN (38) clocked a good time to win a two mile chase at Aintree on his first try over fences. But I think that anyone taking the 6-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Arkle needs their head examined. He's still a big weak horse that stopped dramatically when he met the final hill at Cheltenham in January. And he needs to prove that he can handle a steep incline before he can be taken seriously for the big race.

Tatenen scrambled over a few of these stiff jumps. But that's to be expected first time out, especially when a horse is sustaining the searching pace he was.

I don't yet know whether Tatenen can produce his best on anything but the soft ground he had here. He certainly shows a fair bit of knee action in his long stride, so it's by no means certain he can adapt to firmer ground.

Tatenen is narrow, and light framed. But he's tall and scopey and always looked likely to do better over fences. Indeed he's now won all three times he's run over fixed brush hurdles or fences and looks very useful. My feeling from watching him race is that he's more of a relentless galloper than a speed horse. So I reckon he's going to prove best over two and a half rather than two miles.

I rather liked the performance of the runner up THE DUKE'S SPEECH (33). He's a stronger, more heavily built horse than the winner and looks like a three miler. I don't know why he's failed to get home over longer trips before, but here he was outpaced for a long way before staying on well to take a distant second. He's earned speed ratings as big as 36 from me in the past, and I reckon he will again if he's stepped up to two and a half miles.

HOW GOOD MIGHT NEW APPROACH HAVE BEEN

If I had my way no horse would be eligible for stud duty until it had raced at least thirty times over a minimum period of four years. But sadly hype is worth just as much as performance on the racetrack. So when a top class young horse has won a bunch of Group 1 races you can be almost sure it will be bundled off to stud quickly for fear that further racing would hurt its stud value.

I don't think that owners who choose to cash in this way deserve any extra publicity for their horses. But I can't help but muse over the possibilities had NEW APPROACH (44) stayed in training rather than be retired after breaking the course record in the Champion Stakes.

New Approach has always had behavioral problems. But in the Champion Stakes he showed that he'd finally matured out of them. He settled fantastically well in second, kicked on past the leader without showing the slightest inclination to swerve as of old and surged clear. Even when he was pulling up there was no more of that tossing his head from side to side to escape the control of his rider. In the closing minutes of his all too brief career New Approach showed us a glimpse of what might have been.

This was a dominating performance, and earned one of the best speed ratings I've ever given a three year old. I strongly suspect that New Approach might have equaled the achievements of great older horses like Acatenango, Falbrav, Pilsudski and Fantastic Light if he'd stayed in training. But the sad truth is breeders will always prefer the potential, promise and glamour of a horse like New Approach over the actual achievement of older horses like those I've just mentioned.

DON'T DESERT RIP VAN WINKLE

It's easy to dismiss this year's Dewhurst Stakes as one worth forgetting. The time was a second per mile slower than the Challenge Stakes for older horses over the same trip. And the first four look like ordinary sprinting sorts that will disappear off the radar a few weeks after the start of next season.

But having watched the video of the race several times, albeit with the prejudiced eye of one who has picked a particular horse for the Guineas, I have to say I rather liked the performance of RIP VAN WINKLE (31)

The pace was not great in the early stages, so the race rode like a six furlong race. And Rip Van Winkle didn't seem to be suited by this. He was flat to the boards with a couple of furlongs to go. However as they got to the last half furlong and the leaders finally began to tire he started to move best of all and began gaining ground. The line was quickly reached so you have to watch the video a few times to see what I mean. But Rip Van Winkle was moving really smoothly towards the finish, picking up ground without being pressured. I'm not giving up on him as a Guineas candidate just yet.

SAHPRESA IS A TOP CLASS PROSPECT

Towards the end of the British flat season there are invariably one or two minor Pattern and Conditions races that are insanely competitive. Time runs out for trainers to get a run into their top prospects. So they throw them all into the few available options.

One such option was the Group 3 Darley Stakes run at Newmarket last week. The race was run as fast as most Group 2's and quite a few Group 1's and featured some very interesting horses.

CHARLIE FARNSBARNS (40) won the race, clearing away nicely to score by a length and a half. He's apparently a big gross horse that's hard to get fit. Now that he is it seems logical to go for a decent prize. The Premio Roma would be a good choice.

Next season all the big ten furlong races are logical targets for Charlie Farnsbarns. He was good enough to run Authorized to a length and a quarter in the Racing Post Trophy at two and is now back to that level of form.

BANKABLE (39) is a big handsome horse that keeps on running second to very smart rivals. He's too large to have push-button acceleration, and I can't help thinking every time I watch him that it would be an interesting experiment to jump him all the way up to a mile and a half. Maybe he wouldn't stay. But if he did he wouldn't be in such danger of getting done for a turn of foot.

Like the winner, third placed KIRKLEES (39) already has Group 1 form. He won the Group 1 Gran Criterium as a two year old. And he earned a speed rating of 41 from me last Autumn when winning a hot ten furlong race. He is lightly raced and looks a viable candidate for the big international races that his owners Godolphin love to target.

My idea of the winner beforehand was the French three year old filly SAHPRESA (38) who ended up being a close and unlucky fourth. She was forced to take up violently in the early stages, losing valuable momentum and at least as much ground as she was beaten by. She finished well but was never going to get there in time.

Sahpresa didn't make her racecourse debut till the 29th of July this year when she simply ran away with a maiden up the straight at Maisons'Laffitte. She was always disputing the lead there but was clearly green and dived right across the track when she was first asked to go and win her race. But within a few strides she was sprinting away from her rivals to open up an eight length gap by the line with amazing speed.

Next time out in a much more slowly run contest, Sahpressa was restrained just off the pace, and this got her into trouble. She found herself boxed in with nowhere to go at the furlong pole. Switched far too late for a run she picked up terrifically well and finished a close third. I'm sure she'd have won easily with a clear run - or if her jockey had decided to pull her out sooner. It's tough to gain ground into an accelerating pace, and near impossible to gain the amount of ground she was asked to in just half a furlong.

On her latest start before Newmarket Sahpresa was once more allowed to bowl along in front. She set a good pace on a tight rein in a Listed race for fillies at Saint-Cloud. Soon after entering the straight it was clear she had all her rivals in trouble. She was still cruising and they were all being ridden along. With a furlong and a half to go she was asked to stretch clear. And once more she showed that remarkable acceleration to fly away from her rivals and win easily by six lengths. In doing so she equaled the course record set by the top class miler Martillo in the Prix de Muguet back in 2004, earning a seriously good speed rating from me in the process.

The race I would love to see Sahpresa target next year is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Her turn of foot is a potent weapon in the slow run turf races they have in America, and she's already earned bigger speed ratings from me than most winners of the big race.

SNAP TIE SMART WHEN FRESH

SNAP TIE (41) clocked the fastest time for a two mile hurdle at Kempton in at least thirteen years when beating the Champion Hurdler KATCHIT (40). And the interesting thing is that he won despite showing clear signs of inexperience and immaturity.

Snap Tie overjumped one of the early jumps and nearly sprawled on landing. And in the closing stages, as he drew away from Katchit, he didn't seem very organized. He's still a narrow sort that hasn't filled his frame. Perhaps he takes after his dam, that light-framed, small but brilliant mare Aires Girl. If so he's almost certainly going to continue to be best when fresh as he was here. But I like to think he's going to strengthen up at some stage, learn to jump more proficiently and keep straight under pressure. If he does he'll be some horse. Right now he's definitely a threat to anything when he comes into a race fresh.

Katchit by comparison is already the finished article, even though he's a year younger. He races very professionally and kept on well hear to put up yet another big performance.

It's worth bearing in mind that quite a lot of Champion Hurdlers in the past have made a habit of losing Conditions races like this one. They always seemed to produce their best under the pressure of the big day in March. I wouldn't be surprised if Katchit turned out this way. But whatever happens between now and March I'll still be wary of betting against him in the big one. The last three horses to win the Champion Hurdle as five year olds all went on to win the race again the next year. I'll take a lot of persuading to bet against Katchit making it five in a row.

KITE WOOD SMART - BUT NO DERBY WINNER

For sheer relentless stamina in a two year old, you can't beat the front running performance of KITE WOOD (37) in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Ascot last Saturday. He made all the running at a good pace and just kept grinding away to wear his rivals out while showing little in the way of acceleration.

Kite Wood is a really deep-chested strong sort that's built and bred to go two miles. He got done for pace on fast ground on his debut but has won both his starts on softer surfaces since. There's no way he has the change of gear needed to win a Derby. And though he's obviously more of a St Leger type, the winners of that race don't tend to look as obvious at two as Kite Wood does right now.

I don't know whether Kite Wood is going to still need cut in the ground when he steps up to a mile and a half plus. My belief is that he'll turn out to be next year's version of Curtain Call in having a bit too much stamina to me an impression in the big middle distance races.

If there was a Derby horse in the race it was surely the runner up TAMEER (36) a pacier sort who ran green in the closing stages. He's a bit angular and immature at this point. And it may well be that he needs a faster surface to produce his best. I have him tagged as a Group 3 horse at this point. But he could easily mature into something better next year over a longer trip.

HERECOMESTHETRUTH A CLASS ACT

BUSHRANGER UNLIKELY TO WIN AT THREE

Tradition is the only real reason the Middle Park Stakes retains its Group 1 status. Only one of the last dozen winners went on to win a race at three. The reason is that these days there is a stigma attached to racing two year olds over six furlongs or less, particularly colts. Wins over such trips, even in Group 1 races, do little to enhance their stud value. As a result the best juvenile colts now focus much more strongly than before on top races over seven furlongs and a mile. The Middle Park is for sprinters only. And three year old sprinters have a tough time beating their elders, hence the poor recent record of Middle Park winners at three.

This year's Middle Park winner Bushranger (37) is a good sprinter. He's close-coupled and athletic. And he has a turn of foot as well as serious early pace. But he'd need to make an improbable amount of improvement from two to three to become a factor in the top sprints next year.

The third and fourth HUNTDOWN (32) and GALLAGHER (31) look rather better prospects as they were both flat to the boards when the pace picked up with a couple of furlongs to run but then stayed on towards the finish. I can see either of them improving over seven furlongs to take something like the Greenham Stakes next Spring.

If there was a future top sprinter in the race I suspect it was FINJAAN (27) who finished stone last after a ludicrously troubled passage. He was always moving really well but was boxed in on the rail with no way out. His jockey made a desperate attempt to force through a non existent gap inside the final furlong but this simply resulted in Finjaan being badly hampered. After the incident all he could do was allow his mount to come home in his own time.

Finjaan is a great big, very muscular sprinter that's already won in Group company. I can't say how he would have fared if he'd had a clear run here. But he's so mature I rather suspect he's going to do pretty well against his elders next term.

PURSUIT OF GLORY THE HORSE TO TAKE OUT OF CHEVELEY PARK

You'd think that a horse by Mtoto would be a slam dunk to stay a mile. But after watching SERIOUS ATTITUDE (35) win the Cheveley Park Stakes I have to agree with the doubts expressed by her trainer about her staying beyond sprint trips. Previously I'd thought that her physique would carry her a mile. But looking at her again I see that, like most sprinters, she's a close-coupled sort. And she showed serious pace here.

It could well be that Serious Attitude will get the mile. But she keeps on hitting the same Group 3 speed rating and will need to improve to be a factor in the Guineas. In this regard it's worth noting that she's only medium sized, and in my experience small and medium sized two year olds don't make the same improvement that bigger ones do from two to three.

For me the horse to take out of the race for the future just has to be PURSUIT OF GLORY (33). She's a muscular, good looking filly that's clearly built and bred for a mile, maybe a bit more. She got herself some ways behind early on and had to weave in and out to find a run but picked up best of all when clear to finish third. She was moving really strongly at the finish and will obviously improve for the step up to a mile. I can readily see her improving enough over a mile to be at least competitive in a Guineas or the Coronation Stakes next year.

The other horse worth noting is surely the fifth placed HEART SHAPED (29) who also finished strongly. She's a tall, rangy scopey filly with a long stride. Her dam stayed beyond a mile as did her best two previous offspring. In fact one of them was the very smart A P Valentine who ran second in the G1 Belmont Stakes over a mile and a half.

I know she managed to win over five furlongs. But two year olds do all sorts of things that they later prove incapable of when older. My feeling is that Heart Shape will improve markedly over a mile and a quarter next year. She also keeps looking rather uncomfortable on a fast surface, so I suspect she'd do better with some cut in the ground too.

EAGLE MOUNTAIN HAS A SHOT IN BC TURF

In South Africa and Australia it's quite normal for the top middle distance horses and stayers to win over much shorter trips off a lay-off. A doctor who specialized in muscle disorders once explained to me that the reason was the glycogen supplies which build up in a horse's muscles during periods of inactivity. Glycogen is what the 'fast twitch', type 2A or sprinting muscle fibres use for fuel. And normally middle distance horses and stayers don't have anything like the amount of glycogen that sprinters do. They rely far more on their their type 2B muscle fibres which burn the bodies fat and carbohydrate supplies which require oxygen to liberate. When human athletes switch over to these muscles they call it 'the wall' as they have to expend far more effort when doing so.

I give this preamble to explain why South African trainer Mike de Kock was able to bring Derby runner up EAGLE MOUNTAIN (39) back off a 12 month break to win a good Group 3 over a mile at Newmarket.

Eagle Mountain had to be switched for a run and looked set to be overtaken by the powerful finish of the giant BANKABLE (39) down the outside. But he responded really well to just hold his rival in a finish where the pair dipped well under 36 seconds for the final three furlongs.

Clearly Eagle Mountain has recovered from his fractured pelvis. Equally clearly he has the acceleration required to win turf races in America. So it's a shrewd move to target the Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita. He looks to have a real shot in that race.

Bankable showed a tremendous turn of foot for such a big horse and was unlucky to come up against another Group 1 rival after finishing second to Raven's Pass at Goodwood. In between he was asked to come from too far off a slow pace when running second once more.

Clearly Bankable needs to go back up to a mile and a quarter. He's a tremendously good looking horse that keeps on running like a potential Group 1 winner. Indeed he's earned speed ratings as high as 41 from me. I hope he goes for the Champion Stakes as I'd give him a major chance there.

SWINGING SIXTIES A GOOD PROSPECT

Tailwind or not, it takes a good horse to come within a fifth of a second of the ten furlong course record at Newmarket. That's what SWINGING SIXTIES (37) achieved when taking a red hot three year old handicap at the course last week.

Runner up Midships (35) set a strong early pace. His jockey tried to slow it up slightly with half a mile to run. But this move simply saw Swinging Sixties surge up towards him, clearly moving better. So Midships rider kicked on again. However he could not shake off his challenger, and in the last 150 yards Swinging Sixties surged away in the manner of a high class horse.

Swinging Sixties clocked a Listed class time here and will surely be winning in pattern company next year. He looks a bit immature to me at this stage. And I have to say I'm not fond of his stride pattern. His legs go out to the side when he's at full gallop, though this doesn't seem to slow him down any.

Swinging Sixites has now won all three times he's run ten furlongs on ground where the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description. He looks a fascinating prospect.