IRISH DERBY LOOKS A BETTER TARGET THAN EPSOM FOR ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

I don't often have cause to praise a big bookmaker, but I think Ladbrokes deserve a good deal of credit for not pricing up ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (38) in their 2000 Guineas betting after his impressive win in the Racing Post Trophy. They clearly share my view that it would be misleading and unethical to make what is an obvious non runner a short priced favourite in an ante-post market.

If you have any doubt that St Nicholas Abbey won't line up at Newmarket consider these two stats: First, Aidan O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy runners have gone on to contest 14 Group 1's over a mile or less at three without once reaching the first four. They've done so 22 times out of 45 at longer distances. Second, so far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey's sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed.

St Nicholas Abbey was certainly impressive. He sat last all the way until the sprint for home began off a slowish early gallop three furlongs out. He then picked up the leaders and quickened clear, totally dominating his rivals and simply running away from them in the final furlong.

For me the interesting question about St Nicholas Abbey is not the frankly silly speculation that he might run in the Guineas but whether or not he will handle Epsom.

The obvious concern about St Nicholas Abbey in regards to Epsom is that big, raking stride of his. We got the chance to see it properly for the first time at Doncaster thanks to the sprint finish. Watching this run you do have to wonder how well he's going to come around Tattenham Corner.

The other concern is that, like a lot of Monteju's, St Nicholas Abbey may need a bit of juice in the ground to produce his best at three. This is not often forthcoming at Epsom and is more likely at the Curragh. Add to this the easier, more galloping nature of the Curragh and I'm inclined to think that the Classic St Nicholas Abbey is most likely to win is the Irish Derby rather than the one at Epsom.

I had to invoke my sectional timing formula to give St Nicholas Abbey a proper speed rating. But even taking his strong finish into account leaves this run a length per mile off what he achieved off a stronger early pace in the Beresford Stakes last time. This is another indication that a greater test of stamina will bring out the best in the horse.

It should be noted that St Nicholas Abbey is closely related to Ballingarry and Aristotle (later re-named Our Aristotle). Both these horses won Group 1's at two over long trips and looked terrific prospects. But although they both performed well at three neither were Champions or anything like. So it could well be that St Nicholas Abbey will prove to be just another two year old that makes less than average physical improvement over the Winter and fails to be as dominant at three as he was as a juvenile.

All that said, this was a terrific performance, as was St Nicholas Abbey's previous one in the Beresford Stakes. He'll deserve his place at the top of the Free Handicap.

If At Nicholas Abbey hadn't run we'd all be talking about what a great performance ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (35) put up because he quickened away to open up a two and a half length gap on the rest of the field. He's a good looking horse and it may very well be that he was inconvenienced by the slow surface. That's what his pedigree says. His pedigree also says he should be a ten furlong horse and that's my read of his physique too. So it looks like the Prix du Jockey Club is his logical early season target rather than the Guineas or Derby.

I loved the way AL GHAZAL (27) ran despite the fact he only finished eighth by eleven lengths. He did himself no favours by setting a slow pace because he's a big, strong horse that's bred to get a mile and a half plus. It was inevitable he'd be caught flat-footed when the sprint finish began. But he compounded the problem by running green as grass. His head came right up two furlongs out and his ears started going all over the place. He was totally clueless about what was required. Jockey Ahmed Ajtebi quickly accepted the situation and just let him coast through the final furlong. So it was impressive he finished as close as he did.

I reckon Godolphin have themselves a really good colt in Al Ghazal. It could well be he'll need a few more runs to learn enough about the game to produce his best. But a year hence if he's headed for the St Leger he'll have me interested.

Further back in the field ELUSIVE AWARD (14) looked rather interesting. He'd won both his previous starts and looked a good prospect but here he was racing on a straight course for the first time and was marooned pretty much on his own slap up against the rail. As a result he was saying way more daylight than he ever had before and was clearly not liking the idea. Your eyes were drawn to him because he was moving so smoothly, but it was also obvious he was green as grass. He raced with his head to one side and looked confused. He actually seemed to slow himself up as the sprint began and his jockey pulled him in behind horses in an effort to give him something to aim at. But Elusive Award seem to take this as a signal to pull himself up entirely and ended up tailed off last.

Elusive Award is a really good looking horse that looked like a future Group racer when winning his two previous starts. When he goes back around a turn and is anchored behind runners and delivered with a very late run once more I reckon he'll prove to be high class. It could be he'll cope with a straight course eventually. But if he were mine I'd be aiming to run him exclusively around a turn from now on. Like Elusive Pimpernel he looks like a ten furlong horse judged by his pedigree and physique. So avoiding straight courses shouldn't be much of a problem next year.

HIGH HEELED IS GROUP 1 CLASS ON SOFT GROUND

This season the top three 3YO fillies on my speed ratings have been Stacelita, Sariska and Midday who have all earned top speed ratings of 39 from me. HIGH HEELED (39) ran just as fast when romping the St Simon Stakes by six lengths.

Clearly High Heeled's jockey and trainer are right to say she's a much better horse on soft ground. If she were mine I'd be pulling her out of the Doncaster sales and aiming her at the Premio Roma. The Premio Roma is usually the weakest Group 1 in Europe by some margin and it's almost always run on soft ground. High Heeled has run fast enough to win an average renewal of the race.

It is hard to plan a campaign for a soft ground specialist. You can't often aim them at a specific race. You've just got to keep them as fit as you can and hope they're spot on when the weather is favourable. Even so High Heeled is surely worth keeping in training at four as she could well win a Group 1 for fillies if she got her ground.

TATANIANO A SMART ARKLE PROSPECT

October is when many of the top jumping yards start producing their best novice chasing prospects. Paul Nicholls certainly does Over the last fourteen years he has given sixteen horses their first start over fences which earned a Racing Post rating of 140 or more on their last hurdles start. Amazingly, all sixteen have won. One of the latest was TATANIO (38) who cruised around Exeter first time out, putting in an exhibition round to win by a huge margin in fast time.

This run didn't tell us much because the field was small enough for Tataniano to be steered clear of his rivals throughout. His jumping was never put under any pressure at all. So we're going to have to wait till he faces a more severe test to see how well he copes with being crowded and having to fight for position at a fence.

Still, this was quite some run. It looks like Tataniano is going to be tough to beat as long as he gets the fast ground he seems best on.

When Tataniano made his first racecourse appearance in an Irish point to point at Belharbour the going was officially yielding. But three races on the card were run in faster than standard time, so it was clearly good. This is important because Tataniano clearly failed to handle heavy ground two runs back and has won all four times he's had good or faster ground to race on under rules.

The Irish point to point that Tataniano won was over two and a half miles and the early pace must have been slow judged by the final time. So it wasn't a great test of stamina. Seeing that his three wins under rules were all over shorter trips it looks like the Arkle is the right target for him. He may well not have stayed the extended two and a half miles at Kempton and Cheltenham and is unbeaten over shorter distances.

In an interview a few months back Nicholls said 'When he ran against Diamond Harry he wasn't right - he fell apart on me after the race. Ruby said he'd make some two-mile chaser and he really could be an Arkle horse - that's what we'll start off thinking next season anyway.' A lot more people are thinking the same thing now.

MONET'S GARDEN AS GOOD AS EVER

The grey MONET'S GARDEN (43) did a good imitation of Desert Orchid when jumping boldly to make all the running at a scorching pace to take the Old Roan Chase in fast time.

Clearly the old boy is as good as ever. And the plan to give him plenty of times between his runs this term looks a good run. Thirteen of his fifteen wins have been preceded by a break of at least five weeks.

I'm always still going to be a bit concerned about betting Monet's Garden when he's asked to go down South as he's never been a great traveler. But it looks like it's only Sandown and Cheltenham he doesn't like of the Southern courses, and that's surely because they're just too stiff. His record on other Southern tracks below three miles shows two wins out of three and a second in a Grade 1 in his sole loss.

With a decent gap to the Peterborough Chase, it's hard to see what can prevent Monet's Garden winning back to back runnings of the race next time.

Runner up TIDAL BAY (42) bounced back to his best to run a very good second thanks to the breathing operation he had in the off season. The usual caveats with any horse that has breathing problems is that they tend to prefer flatter tracks, faster ground and are best fresh. It's also quite often the case that a breathing operation only produces results for a couple of runs. So I'm not leaping to any conclusions about Tidal Bay just yet.

I liked the way DON'T PUSH IT (36) kept on so well in fourth place. He's a strongly built sort who won over 3m 1f at the Aintree Festival last year and surely needs to go back up to that sort of distance. He was clearly stretched by the searching pace here.

The great thing was that Don't Push It kept jumping with real confidence here despite finding it hard to judge the jumps at the pace they were going. That spell over hurdles has clearly worked.

Don't Push It looked like developing into one of the real stars of the Winter game early on in his career. He lost on his debut. But he then proceeded to win five of his next seven starts. One of his two losses was a three quarters of a length defeat by Denman when he gave the race away by slithering on landing three out. The other was when he fell two out when going well and looking likely to win the Arkle.

Unfortunately that fall in the Arkle seemed to dent Don't Push It's confidence. But a series of runs over hurdles clearly restored it because he bounced back to his best to win at the Aintree Festival last year on his first chase start in nearly five months and ran another big race here.

It looks very possible to me that Don't Push It is now going to fulfill all the promise he showed before that fall in the Arkle intervened. I'm itching to bet him back over three miles plus especially in a big handicap chase as his current mark of 152 does look rather lenient. The race I want to see him entered for most is the Hennessy.

MR THRILLER IS SERIOUSLY GOOD IN MUD

MR THRILLER (41) clocked a very fast time to win the Silver Trophy at Chepstow. He was very comfortable cruising along in a close second place behind Golan Way in the early stages at a good pace. Then along the backstretch for the last time he was asked to step up the tempo and had Golan Way at full stretch as the pair went further ahead of the rest. He had that one beat early in the straight but looked in trouble as Alfie Sherrin came out of the pack with a big challenge. However he simply quickened for a second time and proceeded to run away from his rivals.

Clearly Mr Thriller is a very smart horse on the soft ground trainer David Pipe says he needs. He's won all three of his British starts on such ground by big margins and should be competitive in Championship races if my speed ratings are any guide.

Given his big, scopey physique, it looks obvious that Mr Thriller should do well over fences in the long term. But right now he's only four and there are some very decent staying hurdles to be won with him on soft ground.

BEETHOVEN HAS A BIG SHOT IN BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE

A California trainer once made a smart observation to me about European two year olds. He said he wished he had the money to import more of them because the earlier start that many European juveniles had gave them a big edge over their American counterparts.

This comment prompted me to take a look at the European runners in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile that had started early and racked up plenty of runs. It turns out they’ve done incredibly well as you can see from a list of those that started racing in May or earlier and had six or more previous starts.

Year Horse Best Finished

Racing Post

rating

2005 Leo 108 9th

2004 Wilko 112 WON 20/1

2001 Johannesburg 125 WON 72/10

1991 Arazi 130 WON 21/10

Showbrook 114 8^th

It’s worth noting that Donativum, the European raider that won last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, started racing in May and had five previous starts. The same was true for Heart Shaped, the European filly that lost the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf by a nose.

I mention this because BEETHOVEN (37), who has just won the Dewhurst, has now had eight starts and started his career in May.

Another European raider for the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Radiohead, also fits this profile, and he looks a very interesting contender. But the stats for the Breeders' Cup meeting overall give Beethoven an additional push. They show that seven of the eight winners on Pro-Ride at last year's meeting had either won a pattern race on Polytrack or Pro-Ride or a Group 1 on grass. Beethoven has done this, Radiohead hasn't.

At this stage I dare say most people are expecting Beethoven to prove just another sub-par Dewhurst winner who fails to win again at the top level. Indeed, seeing that he's not that big and smaller two year olds often fail to train on, that's a logical conclusion. However the stats show that this year there is one more race he can win and that is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Beethoven's lack of stature meant he had to sit and suffer as a couple of bigger rivals closed a gap on him early, forcing him to wait behind a wall of horses. However he then responded well when switched around them in the closing stages to get up and win narrowly. His professionalism born of experience probably won him the day against greener rivals, and the same thing could very well happen in America. A big plus is that he's already won around a turn.

Beethoven was probably lucky to be forced to come from behind as the pace looked to be a little too strong up front. His stablemate STEINBECK (36) was setting it with Jim Bolger's pair Free Judgement and the strongly fancied Chabal. In fact Johnny Murtagh twice looked across from his position slap against the running rail to see how Chabal was doing. Much of the race was a private duel between the pair.

Chabal was the first to fold in the duel and it looked like Steinbeck was going to keep on rolling in front to score. But the combined effect of going a bit too fast, a five month lay off and being forced to race alone in the final furlong were enough to see him go under in a bunch finish, ending up fourth by half a lengths.

Steinbeck is a typical Coolmore colt in that he's big, good looking and very mature. I've little doubt that he will do far better as a three year bold than Beethoven. He has the build and pedigree of a miler and looks much the best Guineas prospect from this race.

CHABAL (29) had shown useful form on his previous two starts when held up. It may not have been a great idea to allow him to bowl along here. He's a decent looking horse who remains promising. However I do prefer his stablemate FREE JUDGEMENT (30) who beat him home.

Like Chabal and Steinbeck, Free Judgement paid the price for going a bit too fast early on. Judged by his physique and previous form the distance was a bit too short for him anyway.

On his only start beyond a sprint trip Free Judgement clocked a Group 2 class time on Dundalk's Polytrack.

At Dundalk Free Judgement lobbed along disputing third place in a strongly run contest most of the way. But he was badly boxed in. Entering the straight his jockey Kevin Manning switched him out and forced his way through a pretty much non-existent gap and took a couple of bumps, one of them a hefty one, for his troubles. Free Judgement soon got to the front but seemed unbalanced by his rough passage for a few strides. Manning obviously felt he was in trouble as he went for his stick. But then Free Judgement got on an even keep again and 'whoosh' he surged clear, prompting his jockey to quickly put down his whip and allow his mount to cruise home unextended.

Towards the finish Free Judgement was beginning to stretch his rivals out like at the end of a steeplechase.

Free Judgement is a close-coupled, well balanced, mature, muscular horse that's really good looking. He got badly hampered when unplaced in the Goffs Million on his next to last start and a horse that likes Polytrack as he clearly does cannot be expected to act on the heavy going he encountered on his two runs before that.

Seeing that he's Breeders' Cup nominated, Free Judgement could get into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile or the Juvenile Turf without a supplementary entry fee being paid. If he were mine I'd have no hesitation in shipping him over for the meeting as the American juveniles are a relatively weak bunch judged by the speed ratings they’ve been earning.

Runner up FENCING MASTER (37) benefited from bumping into Manhattan Fox at the start. This caused him to drop to second last which was a good place to be given the strong pace. He probably would have been there anyway actually seeing how he had to be scrubbed along to keep up and then make progress. He closed steadily to challenge for the lead from about a furlong out but lacked the acceleration to put his field away and got caught by the strong finishing Beethoven.

Fencing Master is clearly a middle distance horse on looks rather than a miler. He's by a ten furlong horse out of a ten furlong horse whose nine previous foals were all basically ten furlong horses. However, my feeling from looking at his deep chest, big stride and strong physique, plus the lack of acceleration he showed here tells me he's going to do best over a mile and a half. I'd expect to see him start off in the Ballysax Stakes or Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial next term where I'd fancy his chances.

XTENSION (37) was another to be held up. His jockey moved on him when Fencing Master looked up on his outside and tried to get by. The pair dueled for quite some way, and just as he nosed ahead Fencing Master's greater stamina kicked in and enabled him to rally past then the winner sprinted by them both.

Xtension looks like a ten furlong performer to my eye physically. But he had no problem going the strong pace here so he could very well take a Guineas Trial if he goes that route next year. My feeling at this stage is that he lacks the physical scope to go on and won Group 1 races next year. However he's so consistent and genuine I'm wary of coming to that conclusion too definitely at this stage.

^{TWICE OVER HAS A SHOT IN BC CLASSIC}

^{DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE THE JIGSAW MAN}

^{STRIKING ARTICLE CAN WIN SOMETHING DECENT}

GULLIBLE GORDON JUMPS REALLY WELL FOR A NOVICE

Clock the video of the novice chase won by GULLIBLE GORDON (30) at Chepstow and you'll find that he was running at almost exactly the same pace as the runners in the good handicap on the same card till his opposition began to melt away from six out. He was able to basically cruise along from there and was then eased heavily on the run in but still scored by 23 lengths.

My feeling from watching the race is that Gullible Gordon was more comfortable going the strong early pace than the winner of the handicap and would have won that race if he'd run in it. This suggests he could have hit a rating of at least 37, though I concede that's pure guesswork.

One notable aspect of Gullible Gordon's win was his impeccable jumping. He stood off at a couple when he met them slightly wrong but never touched a twig. He's clearly a smart staying chaser in the making.

OPINION POLL HAS A BIG CHANCE IN NOVEMBER HANDICAP

OPINION POLL (39) clocked a Group class time when winning a valuable mile and a half handicap at Ascot. He's won all three times he's raced on officially good or slower ground and is surely going to be winning in Group company sooner than later. Meanwhile though his connections apparently intend to exploit his lenient official mark by running him in the November Handicap. If he gets his ground and shows this sort of form he'll be very tough to beat there.

INCENDO CAN WIN MORE ON THE POLY

You won't see many easier winners in a photo than INCENDO (36). Hayley Turner sat motionless on the three year old gelding as he cantered past the line only a head clear of his nearest pursuer Itlaaq at Kempton.

Some accused Turner of grandstanding but whatever the reason she rode him this way Incendo is clearly far better than his official handicap mark as he clocked a borderline pattern class time here. My suspicion is that he is one of those horses that likes the even pace of Polytrack races because it prevents him getting so tired at the finish. I reckon he'll win a bunch more races on the surface if he's kept on the go.

SPECIAL DUTY TOUGH TO BEAT IN GUINEAS

SPECIAL DUTY (38) has been running exceptionally fast times for a two year old filly all season and did so again when taking the Cheveley Park Stakes comfortably.

In her previous start in the Prix Morny trainer Criquette Head-Maarek felt that Special Duty was asked to go off a bit too fast and that's why she got caught on the line. This time her rider deliberately settled her on the lead at a much easier pace, going 0.7 seconds slower to the halfway point than the colts did in the Middle Park. As a result when her big rival LADY OF THE DESERT (35) came out of the pack to challenge her she had plenty of zip and was able to put in a sustained surge to burn her off before clearing away to win by nearly three lengths full of running.

As I've mentioned before, Special Duty looks built and bred to go a mile. She won this race comfortably in very fast time and has previously run a bit faster. She doesn't need to improve at all over the Winter to have a big chance of taking the 1000 Guineas as she's already run quicker than the average winner of the fillies' Classic.

French trainers believe that a horse needs experience of Newmarket at two if it is to win the Guineas. And the race they favour for their fillies is the Cheveley Park. This explains why the last three French trained winners of the Cheveley Park all went on to win the 1000 Guineas. I think Special Duty has a great chance of making it four in a row.

Lady Of The Desert made a bold move to surge forward and move alongside Special Duty around a furlong out. But the winner had been able to save plenty by being throttled back early on and her jockey was clearly waiting for such a move. Special Duty quickened up and basically burned off Lady Of The Desert. I've no doubt at all that if Lady Of The Desert had been ridden for second place she would have finished in that position and a fair bit closer instead of tiring late to be third. She remains a filly of considerable promise and has run almost as fast as the winner before. I think she's crying out for longer trips and see her as a very decent proposition for the French Guineas next year, which is apparently her target.

RADIOHEAD HAS A SERIOUS SHOT IN BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE

The biggest Beyer speed rating awarded to a two year old colt in America this year is 102. That's equivalent to 36 on my scale. RADIOHEAD (39) ran two lengths per mile faster than that when third in the Nunthorpe and three lengths a mile quicker when a close second in the Middle Park last week.

It makes perfect sense that Radiohead's connections say he was unsuited by the slow early pace in the Mill Reef Stakes last time and needs a strong gallop to produce his best. It seems to me he's been running over inadequate distances. He's a big, strong, mature, rangy sort that's built for at least a mile. His sire won the Breeders' Cup juvenile over 8.5f. His dam was unraced but two of her three winning siblings won over a mile or further and her only previous foal to race put up his best effort to date when third in a high priced claimer at two over 1m 70 yards.

Okay there is a little concern that Radiohead may have some trouble negotiating the tight turn at Santa Anita given the way he ran wide the only time he's run around a turn before at Bath. There's also a worry that he won't settle when he's stepped up so dramatically in distance. But his sire managed a similar jump up in trip to win the American race, and this time around it's run on a surface that is much more suited to turf performers like Radiohead than American dirt runners.

The Middle Park winner AWZAAN (40) is clearly very fast. But he's also small and narrow, and two year olds built this way don't often train on. In addition he looks a sprinter pure and simple, and three year olds have a tough time beating their elders in top sprints. So, quick as he is, I wouldn't be surprised if he bombs next year.

Third placed SHOWCASING (38) is a great big strapping beast that may well be capable of being competitive against older horses in the big six furlong sprints. He ran seriously fast for a second time here and looks capable of improvement as he gains experience and learns to use his giant physique a bit better.

I'm not sure it was a great idea to set such a strong pace on POET'S VOICE (38). The Champagne Stakes winner is built and bred for a mile and had not seven furlongs in all his previous four starts. He tired as a result of his efforts and began to roll left and right in the final furlong. He ended up bouncing off the giant Showcasing into the centre of the course where the winner then hampered him slightly. He's have finished a little closer but for this. However the real problem was the cut back to an inadequate distance. This is a classy looking, mature, good-bodied sort that looks a decent prospect for the Guineas and other big mile races next year.

BREEDERS' CUP MARATHON WINNER MAY COME FROM CUMBERLAND LODGE

The first five horses past the post in this year's Cumberland Lodge are all Breeders' Cup nominated, and two of them have already won Breeders' Cup races. So it makes sense that several, perhaps all of them should be heading for California next month.

The trainer of the winner MAWATHEEQ (40) has expressed a desire to shoot for a Group 1 with the horse as he's now in such good form. But impressive as he was, and as fast as he ran, I'm not sure cutting back to ten furlongs for the Champion Stakes is the way to go. He won here by coming from far back off a strong pace. I think a mile and a half is his distance. So I'd like to see him shoot for the Breeders' Cup Marathon.

Runner up CAMPANOLOGIST (39) just seems to bob up and down and not respond when he's passed. But he's a very solid yardstick at least. And I continue to think he'd have a real chance in California, even in the Breeders' Cup Turf, though the Marathon now seems more realistic.

Third placed KINGDOM OF FIFE (38) stayed on really well despite taking a bump as he came between horses a furlong and a half out. He's another solid candidate for the Breeders' Cup Marathon and would attract a fair bit of publicity as I think I'm right in saying he'd be the first Breeders' Cup runner for the Queen.

RED ROCKS (38) the 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf winner, showed he still appreciates a searching early gallop. He was backward in condition according to Raceform but kept on well to finish a close fourth. His chance of pulling off a rare double at Santa Anita is probably going to depend on the pace. If Coolmore spend the money to put in a couple of pacemakers for their representative it would help Red Rocks a lot. The old boy has probably lost a step or two but he's not far off what's required and could just do it.

MUHANNAK (37) has failed to reach the first four in all seven starts since his win in the Breeders' Cup Marathon last year. And he actually pulled himself up a few runs back. But he ran his best race in ages here to stay on nicely for fifth. A double in the big race is by no means impossible. Though I suspect we're going to see Europe field a stronger team for the contest this year - quite possibly including some of those that beat him here.