THE GREY BERRY IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

THE GREY BERRY (38) was one of the easiest winners I've seen in ages when he scored over 1 mile and 100 yards at Beverley earlier this year. He earned a Listed class speed rating from me there and I estimate he could have won by a further five lengths if he'd been ridden out. If I'm right he would have earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a three year old this year beyond a sprint trip.

I wrote at the time that I thought The Grey Berry wouldn't be able to reproduce that form over a mile. I felt it was only the heavy ground, the strong early gallop and the steep uphill finish which enabled him to perform so well. Sure enough he got outpaced before staying on late when cut back to a mile on faster ground for his next two starts.

Last week at Ayr The Grey Berry was finally stepped up to a middle distance and produced a huge performance in Ayr's Kilkerran Cup.

Held up about eight to ten lengths off the searching early gallop, The Grey Berry moved through smoothly towards the leaders up the straight. With two furlongs to go he had to be checked to avoid running into the back of another horse and lost momentum. Quickly back into his stride he surged again only to be bumped twice and then forced back as he was squeezed between rivals with a furlong to run.

Once he finally got clear, The Grey Berry really started rolling and cut down the leader's advantage rapidly to get up close home. With a clear run I reckon he'd have won by about three lengths, which again would put him right up there with the best three year olds.

I rather doubt that The Grey Berry will make the cut for the Cambridgeshire. In fact, from the way he ran here, I'd prefer to see him going up to a mile and a half rather than back down to nine furlongs.

I have a horrible feeling that we won't be seeing The Grey Berry much longer. He's due to be sold at the Horses In Training Sale at Tattersalls next month. That sale attracts a huge number of foreign buyers. And I strongly suspect The Grey Berry will end up being purchased by one of them. He'd certainly make a fantastic buy for Hong Kong where I could see him developing into one of their top horses.

If by some miracle The Grey Berry remains in Britain I'd bet him to win pretty much anything at ten furlongs plus. I'd even consider him long and hard for the Cambridgeshire if he made the cut.

BEST PROSPECT (38) was losing the Kilkerran Cup in a photo for the second year running. He looked so sure to win a furlong out that he traded at 50-1 on with Betfair. But he is a frustrating sort that is hard to win with. He invariably moves like a champion in his races but is always horribly vulnerable in the closing stages. Still over ten furlongs in small fields and away from very stiff tracks he's very consistent. It's interesting to note that Jamie Spencer, a jockey renowned for employing extreme hold up tactics, has been aboard for his last two wins. I'd like to see him ride Best Prospect once more. In a small field or on soft ground (which spreads a field out and reduces traffic) I suspect Spencer would be able to deliver him late enough to score.

VERY WISE (36) earned a speed rating of 40 from me when winning the Lincoln and ran a promising race on his second run off a break to take third. He's won both times he's run on a straight course and must have a real chance of scoring a rare big race double in the Cambridgeshire, especially if there's a bit of cut in the ground.

SOAPY DANGER AS GOOD AS EVER

It looked certain that SOAPY DANGER (37) would need his first run after fracturing his pastern last August when he contested the Arc Trial at Newbury. Sure enough trainer Mark Johnston told reporters that the horse was ten kilos heavier than the maximum he'd previously weighed when winning. However this didn't stop him running a tremendous race to go under by only a neck to the smart HALICARNASSUS (37).

Soapy Danger beat the subsequent Group 1 winner Mountain High at Newmarket last season and is an admirably consistent horse. I suspect he is capable of winning at the top level himself, so it would be a logical move to run him in the Arc'.

The early pace was okay in the Arc Trial but the field still accelerated noticeably in the last couple of furlongs. So I reckon the winner and runner up would probably have run a fair bit quicker if the field had gone a stronger early gallop. Certainly Halicarnassus confirmed that he is a very hard horse to beat in a small field.

I rate Halicarnassus one of the top three year olds and predicted he'd be winning in Group 1 company after he'd run second to the brilliant Echo Of Light last month. He did nothing to alter that view here. Indeed if there is one horse that looks likely to benefit from the steadily shrinking number of runners in European middle-distance Group 1's it has to be Halicarnassus. He may struggle to find a run in the bigger fields he'll face in international Group 1 contests this Autumn and next Spring. But in races like the King George and the Grosser Preis Von Baden he's surely going to be tough to beat next year.

PAPAL BULL (37) finished very strong but very late to take third, confirming the view expressed by his jockey Ryan Moore that he wants a longer distance. Indeed I thought it was curious to find Papal Bull running in this race over just eleven furlongs. I felt his jockey, Ryan Moore, was absolutely spot on when he said Papal Bull could develop into a Cup horse after he'd won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time.

Fourth placed SALFORD MILL (36) surely needs longer as well. This big, long striding colt moved really well early on. But he couldn't match the first three when they sprinted over the last two furlongs. He's shown before that he lacks acceleration and ran like a stayer here. Maybe he'll be effective over a mile and a half in a strongly run race. However I'd like to see him try the Leger trip. He's certainly capable of winning in Group company.

AAJEL LOOKS A CUP PROSPECT

AAJEL (37) earned a pattern class speed rating from me for the second time in a row when taking a hot Yarmouth handicap over one mile and six furlongs.

I suggested after his last start that this big, long striding colt would benefit from a step up to this sort of distance. He clearly did and now looks a Cup prospect for next year.

Runner-up IRISH QUEST (37) was unlucky not to have won all three of his previous starts at long distances. And he was again unlucky to come up against such a smart rival here. The 50-1 offered by Ladbrokes about his chances in the Cesarewitch looks way too big to me.

METAPHORIC (37) ran seriously fast to beat the smart Regal Flush into second place in a Newmarket handicap back in the Spring. He did so again to take a close third here. He should really be racing in pattern company and looks capable of taking a Listed or Group 3 race sooner rather than later.

TOPARUDI GETTING INTERESTING FOR THE CESAREWITCH

I mentioned TOPARUDI (37) here when he won at Sandown earlier this year. Now I have to make note of another fine performance he's put up at Musselburgh.

Following his fast win at Sandown Toparudi showed his old problem of not settling off a slow pace at the same course. But at Musselburgh the pace was decent and his jockey, Royston French, was able to anchor him right at the back in last place where he was always going noticeably well. Entering the straight Toparudi was in fact going so well that he pulled for his head briefly. French managed to get him settled though and allowed the horse to steadily move towards the leader without being ridden.

Two and a half furlongs out Toparudi was moving so easily it looked like he was going to simply run away with the race by ten lengths. However when French finally pushed him into the lead he seemed disinclined to go away from his rivals and had to be ridden all the way to the line to win by little more than a length.

Clearly Toparudi is a very difficult horse to ride. If he sees too much daylight he pulls like a train. And if the pace is slow he's almost impossible to restrain. It seems to me therefore that what he wants is a really big field and a searching early gallop. This is exactly what he'd get in a big staying handicap.

After he'd won at Sandown I suggested that Toparudi might not be suited to the Cesarewitch at Newmarket as the course is so wide he'd see too much daylight and pull hard. But after he won so well here I'm now inclined to think that he might well be persuaded to settle in the huge field that race attracts. Seeing how well he stayed on I've little doubt that the extended distance would suit him.

The Cesarewitch often goes to a jumper, and Toparudi won a maiden hurdle by eleven lengths on his most recent hurdles outing. So if he doesn't score at Newmarket it could well be that he's going to score the big handicap win he seems destined for over timber rather than on the flat. In any event he certainly looks well worth following as his official handicap ratings both on the flat and over hurdles understate his ability by a big margin if my speed ratings are anything to go by.

SHARP REPLY (36) stayed on well to take second. He's won all three times he's run on a tight right-handed track over hurdles. And he'd also won the only time he'd run on a tight right-handed course on the flat (I count Windsor as being right-handed as the home turn is taken right handed). So this was his first defeat on this type of course.

I imagine that Sharp Reply's big target is the valuable handicap hurdle run at the end of this month at Market Rasen (a tight, right-handed track). This was certainly a very promising prep for that race.

TONNANTE (36) was one of those 'Sir Mark Prescott' specials you so often see in minor staying handicaps - a three year old that has just improved massively at a longer trip after earning a low handicap mark when running shorter. She'd won the first time she ran a long distance on her latest outing and was unlucky to come up against two unusually useful rivals for the class here. She's actually capable of earning black type on my speed ratings and should be able to win two or three more minor staying handicaps before the season is over seeing how ludicrously low her official rating is.

ANNA PAVLOVA DESERVES A GROUP WIN

If any horse deserves a Group win it is the admirably consistent ANNA PAVLOVA (39) who clocked a Group class time yet again when taking last week's Doonside Cup at Ayr from a red hot field.

When she has a bit of cut in the ground and a reasonable early gallop Anna Pavlova always runs her race. But I'm not sure her next target, the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp's Arc fixture is a great choice. The race looks set to feature its strongest field in years and is run on fast ground and at a moderate early pace more often than not.

I suspect that Anna Pavlova's best shot of taking a Group race this year will come later on in the Premio Lydia Tesio. That is a Group 1 contest but she'd have a serious chance on my ratings if it's run on the soft ground which normally prevails.

GOLD SOVEREIGN COULD BE ANYTHING

The good three year olds should have worked their way out of maiden company by now. But Godolphin bring their horses along slowly and quite often introduce a pattern class newcomer around this time of year. So it shouldn't be altogether surprising that GOLD SOVEREIGN (37) made an impressive racecourse debut when winning a mile maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack in Listed class time.

Gold Sovereign is bred to stay a mile and a quarter and could be anything. I imagine he'll now be trained with the Dubai Carnival in mind where I suspect he'll be worth following.

SHORTHAND SHOULD WIN SOON

SHORTHAND (37) is from a family who all loved soft ground. So it was probably a shrewd move to lay her off till the Autumn. She ran a big race on what I rated good ground to finish second in a red hot Listed race at Yarmouth, staying on well at the finish.

The two obvious targets for Shorthand are the Premio Lydia Tesio in Italy and the E. P. Taylor Stakes in Canada. Both these Group 1 contests are run on yielding or softer ground at least half the time and Shorthand would be a serious player in either of them.

Third placed REUNITE (37) was one of the fastest three year old fillies in Europe last term. She twice earned Group 1 class speed ratings from me. She too has clearly been brought back for a shot at some big Autumn prizes. She might shoot for the same targets as Shorthand. But she's shown that she can win off a slow pace and on fast ground. What's more she is Breeders' Cup nominated. Therefore I suspect her goal is the Filly & Mare Turf at Monmouth Park. If she can handle the tight turns of that seven furlong oval she'd have a serious chance of racking up another big international win for Godolphin. Before then she should be able to take pretty much any race she contests.

The winner SAMIRA GOLD (38) probably needs another Winter on her back before she starts travelling abroad. She apparently got worked up before her run at Goodwood a few runs back. She's calmer now but I wouldn't want to subject her to a long journey to a foreign track at this stage. Her connections suggested she would be stepped up to a mile and a half and Group 3 company next time. This suggests her next race will be the Princess Royal Stakes, the only remaining Group race for fillies in Britain at that sort of distance. Samira Gold ought to have a good shot there as she keeps running a bit faster and has valid excuses for her few losses. Next year she could easily become a Group 1 horse.

CAPTAIN GERRARD TOUGH TO BEAT OVER FIVE IN MUD

I've never quite figured out why but every season there are invariably a couple of two year olds that can run as fast as older horses at five furlongs. You don't find juveniles that can do this at six furlongs or longer. And the ones that run as fast as older horses over five virtually never improve the next season.

Last season the juvenile speedballs were Wi Dud and Enticing. This season it is Kingsgate Native and CAPTAIN GERRARD (40) who posted a phenomenal time to take last week's Rosebery Stakes at Ayr.

Captain Gerrard doesn't seem to stay further than five furlongs. And he needs at least some cut in the ground. But when he gets it he's quite some horse over the minimum distance. In fact he's won all four times he's run five furlongs on going that I rate at least on the slow side of good.

As trainer Bryan Smart suggests, Captain Gerrard will probably be a hard horse to place next year. So it makes sense to try and find the horse another opportunity this year either in the Criterium de Vitesse at Chantilly next month or in the Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot this weekend. He looks much more likely to get his ground in the French race. It's just a pity that it's only a Listed contest as Captain Gerrard deserves a Group win.

ENTICING HAS SERIOUS SHOT IN ABBAYE IF IT'S FIRM

ROWE PARK (40) just keeps on earning steadily bigger speed ratings from me. Last week he earned the biggest yet when beating the smart filly ENTICING (39) to rake a hot Group 3 over five furlongs at Newbury.

Rowe Park has now won seven of the ten times he's run five furlongs and all four times he's run the minimum distance up the straight on an easy course (he didn't quite last home over the very stiff five at Sandown). He's surely worth supplementing for the Prix Abbaye as British sprinters dominate that contest and he'd be one of the fastest on current form if he ran in that race.

If the ground comes up genuinely firm for the Abbaye I'd rate Enticing the one to beat. The filly has won all four times she's run on ground that I rate within 1.3 seconds per mile of being the fastest possible. It's quite often that way at Longchamp's big Arc meeting. If it is I'd be wary of opposing Enticing as she earned a bigger speed rating from me this year than any European sprinter when smashing the course record at Bath on very firm ground.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL HARD TO ASSESS

MULTIDIMENSIONAL (38) certainly looked impressive when producing a strong burst to come from last to first when beating international campaigner ORACLE WEST (38) in a strongly run Conditions race at Newbury. But the clock indicates he only ran a Group 3 time and will need to go a fair bit quicker if he's to take his intended target, the Champion Stakes.

Multidimensional is very lightly raced due to a litany of physical problems. However, in my experience, if a horse is capable of running a Group 1 time it will normally have shown it within the five runs Multidimensional has now had - especially if it has had the opportunity to come off a strong pace as he did here. It's possible I'm wrong. Right now though that's the way I'll be betting.

Oracle West had been a good second to subsequent Grosser Preis von Baden winner Quijano over twelve furlongs in Dubai before finishing runner up in the Dubai Sheema Classic over the same trip. His trainer Mike de Kock was employing a manouver often used by South African and Australian trainers in cutting him back to a much shorter trip her off a lay-off, and it almost worked. Oracle West can run a bit faster than this and will be interesting when he goes back up in distance next time out.

DZESMIN LOOKS INTERESTING FOR NOVEMBER HANDICAP

DZESMIN (38) clocked a pattern race time the only time he ran at Catterick last season. And he repeated the trick when beating that useful old horse REALISM (38) when returning the course last week.

It's easy to dismiss Dzesmin as a one track wonder. But he won three Listed races and the Group 3 Polish Derby in Poland. So I'm inclined to think there is another explanation.

All Dzesmin's best from since coming to Britain has been achieved on going that I rate good or slower on tracks with homestraights of three furlongs or more over twelve furlongs. So if he gets a bit of cut in the ground I reckon he has a serious chance of taking his big target, the November Handicap at Doncaster.

Realism ran a big race to take second. The going was good to soft here by my estimates, and it may well be that Realism now needs a bit of cut in the ground to produce his best. He'd be an interesting bet in a similar race next time.

BILLION DOLLAR KID CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

BILLION DOLLAR KID (35) won a good Novice race at Sandown over seven furlongs in a time that suggests he'll be taking a Group race within his next few starts. Always moving best, he came off a straight line when hitting the front, hampering one of his rivals. He was clearly goofing off in the lead, had his head up in the air and obviously hasn't learned to extend himself fully yet. If he had I suspect he'd have won this by around four lengths instead of one and a half.

Billion Dollar Kid is a pretty tall, mature, muscular, class sort who looks built for no more than a mile. I'd be rather interested in his chances in a Guineas trial next Spring. If he improves as much as looks likely he'll be a Group 2 horse, maybe even Group 1.

NORTHERN BOLTS UP

NORTHERN BOLT (36) set a strong pace and kept on really well to beat a decent runner up in ELIZABETH SWANN (33) at Ayr. He clocked a time that's pattern class for a two year old and I suspect he can stay further. His dam tends to get runners that go longer, and the way he was finishing suggests that he certainly will. I imagine he'll get away with an official rating of around 80 for this which makes him a very attractive proposition for nurseries.

Elizabeth Swann pulled clear of the rest and was unlucky to come up against such a useful rival in a maiden auction race. She ought to be able to win a similar race next time.

SEPTIMUS MORE THAN JUST A STAYER

SEPTIMUS (42) has earned plenty of write ups from me here. And now he's gone and run fast enough to deserve another one by breaking the course record to take the Doncaster Cup.

There aren't many horses that win Group races over one and a quarter and two and a quarter miles in the same season. The fact that Septimus has been able to do so endorses the idea mooted by his connections that the horse is more than just a stayer.

I'm going to be wary about supporting Septimus if he's ever risked at Epsom again. He jarred himself up in last year's Derby and suffered his only defeat in four starts this year at Epsom. So it looks like he has problems coping with the steep downhill gradient (horses hit their forelegs harder when running downhill).

It looks like Septimus is now headed towards the Prix du Cadran rather than the Melbourne Cup. But I note with interest that he is still in the Arc. If he were mine I'd leave him in that race till the last possible moment because on soft ground Septimus would be a serious contender according to my speed ratings.

I don't know where runner up GEORDIELAND (40) goes from here. He's been second to high class rivals on five of the last six occasions he's come into a race off the break of five weeks plus that he seems to need. But he seems to find very little under pressure and hasn't won in well over two years.

I don't think Geordieland would be suited by the Canadian International as North American turf races are invariably run at a slow early pace. Geordieland broke his maiden in a slow run race. But his subsequent four wins were all in contests run at a decent pace according to my speed ratings. He's run below form several times, even when fresh, in slowly run contests. Still, he remains a seriously good horse that's won a Group 2 and is capable of winning again at that level. He virtually always runs his race when fresh so will surely be found an opportunity eventually.

Third placed ALLEGRETTO (40) just keeps running one big race after another and is clearly one of the best staying fillies of recent years.

Eight year old DISTINCTION (39) showed that he is as good as ever to take fourth, earning the second biggest speed rating I've ever given him. It looks like his trainer is right to say that old horses like him take longer to get fit. This was only his third run of the year. I'm inclined to think he will do even better over the two and a half miles of the Prix du Cadran and see him as a key player for that race.

RED GALA IS A FUTURE STAR

Sir Michael Stoute has a tremendous record with older horses that he's brought along slowly. He's turned a remarkable number of four year old handicappers into top Group performers at five. Now it looks like he's about to do it again because his charge, the four year old RED GALA (40) has just clocked a Group 2 class time to win a red hot ten furlong handicap at Doncaster in course record time.

Red Gala has now won his last three starts and just keeps running faster and faster. He only has six runs on the board and could be anything. In fact I would not be at all surprised to see him develop into a Group 1 horse.

Runner-up FAIRMILE (39) is a very consistent horse at middle distances and goes well fresh as he was here. It's surprising he's been kept to handicaps after winning the John Smith's Cup and another valuable handicap at this year's Dubai Carnival. He'd surely have an easier time winning in Group 3 company than lugging huge weights around in handicaps.

LADIES BEST (39), a stablemate of the winner, ran a huge race for a three year old to finish a close, staying on third. It may be that he's best on straight courses or in small fields like this as he's twice encountered traffic problems in big fields around a turn. But my gut feel is that he may well get better at handling traffic as he gains experience and perhaps steps up in distance. Right now, with his official rating being remarkably low, he looks a very interesting candidate for a valuable handicap.

ALL THE GOOD (39) was my idea of the winner as he'd run a Group class time before and finished a head second in a valuable handicap at Dundalk where he had the very smart filly Ezima back in third. He ran right up to his best and was unlucky to come up against three other Group class performers in a handicap.

So far All The Good's wins and best form have been in small fields or in races run on Polytrack. Polytrack provides an even surface which allows horses to make their run from any position across the track. So it makes it easier for a horse to find a run. I suspect this is the key to All The Good and that he'd do well if kept in training over the Winter and run on Polytrack. He might well prove good enough for the Winter Derby. He'd also be interesting if stepped up to pattern company as he'd encounter small fields more often than in handicaps.

I'm now getting very interested in EMMPAT, the horse that beat All The Good and Ezima at Dundalk. Due to an equipment failure no time was taken for Emmpat's big win at Dundalk. But the second and third have both earned ratings of 39 from me since, so it looks clear that Emmpat is very smart. He has in fact won six of the last seven times he's run two miles or less on Polytrack or going with the word 'firm' in it. And he's already won the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle. When he gets his ground, whether it's on the flat or over jumps I'll be very interested in Emmpat's chances. I can see him scoring at big odds against some of the big name stars over hurdles on fast ground.

GALACTIC STAR OF THE FUTURE

Red Gala wasn't the only four year old handicapper to run a big race for Sir Michael Stoute at Doncaster. GALACTIC STAR (39) ran almost as fast to take a strongly contested class 2 handicap over a mile and a half. He's now won both times he's run the distance and looks a future Group winner.

ALL MY LOVING SHOULD GO FOR FILLY & MARE TURF

This has been an exceptionally strong year for three year old fillies at ten furlongs and up. HI CALYPSO (39) added herself to their number by breaking the course record to beat a very good field in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster.

Held up at the back in a race run at a searching pace, Hi Calypso surged up on the outside, traveling strongly, halfway up the straight and continued her run to out battle ALL MY LOVING (39) in the run to the line.

This was the fourth win in a row for Hi Calypso who stays in training next year, and it marks her out as a prime candidate for Group 1 fillies' races like the Yorkshire Oaks and Prix Vermeille in 2008. In fact, she won this race so well I would not be surprised to see her prove competitive against colts in Group 1 company next year. Yes she'll need to improve a bit for that, but so far she's done nothing but improve.

The three fastest three year old fillies on my speed ratings are Peeping Fawn, Silkwood and Light Shift. If All My Loving had never encountered these three she'd have won all her previous five starts. She's actually bang there with the top fillies Aiden O'Brien has ever trained and has simply been unfortunate to have been born into a generation of exceptional fillies.

After her last start two months ago jockey Seamie Heffernan predicted that All My Loving would improve when she got stronger. That seems to have happened during her lay off as she ran her fastest ever race here.

I note with interest that All My Loving is entered for the Champion Stakes and the Prix l'Opera. I reckon she's just as effective over the shorter distance of those races. After all she beat a useful rival in Akua'Ba over ten furlongs at Leopardstown when breaking her maiden, and that was in a slow run race. She also got to within three quarters of a length of Light Shift at Chester over 11 furlongs.

Actually the race I'd love to see All My Loving go for is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Coolmore came within a neck of winning the race back in 2003 with L'Ancresse who had finished fourth in the Park Hill and second in the Irish Oaks. All My Loving looks a better candidate than that one as she is already proven on tight courses, fast ground and off the kind of slow pace US turf races are run at.

BRISK BREEZE (38) is not that big and looked to have problems coping with the traffic as the field compressed at the two furlong pole. But she kept on strongly to finish a close third. With that big (GER) after her name it's no big surprise Brisk Breeze did so well in a race over a marathon distance that was run at a searching pace. German horses are rightly renowned for their stamina. I'd like to see Brisk Breeze kept in training and aimed at Cup races next year. She'd encounter smaller fields in those races and would be able to use her stamina.

French raider SYNOPSIS (38) was my pick on the basis of her win in fast time off a very strong early pace at Deauville. She ran almost as fast here but simply came up against a freakishly strong field to take fourth. It looked to me that the final furlong was just a little bit much for her and that she'd do better back over shorter. This being so, she's an interesting candidate for the Prix de Royallieu. Though I have to add that is already developing into a red hot race this year. In addition it looks clear that Synopsis needs a strong pace to produce her best, and that's not always forthcoming in Group races these days especially in France.

UNDER THE RAINBOW (38) had finished fourth in the Chester Cup earlier this year. So it's not surprising she improved for the step up in trip from the mile and a half races she'd contested in her last four starts. She was moving well at the finish and clearly has bags of stamina. I can see her winning a Group race against males over a marathon distance.

KAYAH (36) was deliberately rested over the Summer and ran a good race on her comeback to take fifth. I can find no big race entries for her but assume her connections have something in mind. Whatever it is I'd consider Kayah carefully as she ran faster than this back in May according to my speed ratings and clearly has scope for improvement.

SPACIOUS SO IMPRESSIVE

SPACIOUS (31) had earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a two year old filly beyond a short sprint trip when scoring on her debut. The run made her look a good thing for the May Hill Stakes, and so it proved even though the early pace wasn't strong enough for her to run another fast time.

Held up in last place early, Spacious was cantering almost all the way. I confess I didn't like her chances as the early pace wasn't strong and she had a mountain to climb when it quickened at halfway. But Spacious picked up the leaders almost effortlessly. She'd made her run down the centre whereas her main rivals were on the rails. And as is often the case with an inexperienced horse, the rail and the other runners were like a magnet to her in the closing stages. She edged across quite dramatically to join them, but for which she would have won by a wider margin and looked more impressive.

Clearly Spacious is something special. I would be wary of betting any horse of her age and sex to beat her. However I'm not at all sure about her chances for the 1000 Guineas. She has a long, raking stride and looked more like a ten furlong plus horse to me here. In addition she took a long time to come to hand this year according to her trainer James Fanshawe, so why should it be any different next year?

LUCARNO USES HIS SPEED TO WIN

LUCARNO (39) ran like a middle-distance horse running against stayers in the Leger. He used his speed to open up a gap with a furlong to go and then held on late as half a dozen horses charged at him late.

Lucarno has yet to run a Group 1 time. But I think it's too early to say whether he can or not. The only thing I'd bet on is that this is the last time we'll ever see him run beyond a mile and a half.

LOCH VERDI ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE OVER 5F IN SMALL FIELDS

There are many more Group class five and six furlong older horses in Britain than the rest of Europe combined. In fact there are so many that class 3 sprint handicaps in Britain are normally as strongly contested as Group 3 sprints elsewhere if my speed ratings are any guide. I confess that I do not understand why this is so. British horses aren't dominant in any other category. But the fact that they've won about half the sprints for older horses run outside Britain that they've contested over the last decade shows that their dominance is real and not some sort of aberration in my ratings.

British sprints are rather like Group 1 races in Japan in that they're so competitive it's very hard for a horse to score a high percentage of the time. Therefore when you see a horse that wins British sprints repeatedly, even if it's in a limited set of circumstances, you can bet that it is seriously good.

I give this preamble because LOCH VERDI (38) has just gone and won a class 4 handicap over five furlongs at Folkestone in Group class time. This is not that unusual in Britain. But what makes Loch Verdi's performance noteworthy is the fact that this was the third time in four starts she has won over five furlongs in fields smaller than twelve. Her sole loss in a small field over the minimum trip was a half length defeat by the very smart gelding Rowe Park.

If I had the money I'd buy Loch Verdi, ship her to another country and run her in nothing but pattern company over five furlongs. She's earned Group class speed ratings from me on three occasions over the last year and would have a major chance of winning in Group company abroad. Seeing that her dam is the former champion sprinter Lochsong she would then be worth a bundle as a broodmare. Even if she stays in Britain she'll still have a real shot of winning in pattern company when she hits a small field over the minimum distance.

THE ILLIES KEEPS ON WINNING

THE ILLIES (38) earned a Group class speed rating from me for the second time when winning a hot mile handicap at Doncaster's Leger meeting. It's interesting to note that last season he ran unplaced in his first three races before winning the two subsequent times he got the fast ground he needs. This season he ran unplaced in his first four starts but has now won his last three. Patterns like this tend to repeat, so I'd be wary of supporting The Illies on his first few starts next year but bet him to bounce back to form on fast ground afterwards.

METROPOLITAN MAN (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given him to run The Illies to a head. He's placed in Listed and Group company several times and looks more than capable of winning at that level now. Quite why he's improved I find hard to say, but my speed ratings say he has and that means he should be worth following.

ECHO OF LIGHT LOOKS VERY INTERESTING FOR DUBAI WORLD CUP

ECHO OF LIGHT (42) has now been one of Europe's fastest horses for three seasons. He routinely earns Group 1 speed ratings from me and did so again when breaking the course record in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York.

You can come up with all sorts of theories to explain why Echo Of Light has lost half his 14 races but there is always conflicting evidence. He has shown that he can win right-handed, on straight courses, on tight ones or at a mile despite previous theories I and others came up with which suggested he wasn't suited to such conditions.

It simply seems to be that Echo Of Light is a brilliant, versatile horse who occasionally has a rush of blood to his head and pulls way too hard for his own good. The sheepskin cheekpieces that he's worn in his last two starts appear to calm him down a bit. So hopefully he'll now behave in all his remaining races.

With his fabulous pedigree and looks Echo Of Light would be a great stallion prospect. But in order to attract a decent book of mares he needs to get that Group 1 win. And I think I know just the race he could do it in: The Dubai World Cup. He's by Dubai Millenium who won that race for Godolphin. He's won the only time he's run on the AW. He's got the early speed that's so strongly favoured on dirt. And he's won five of the seven times he's run beyond a mile. His two losses at longer trips were one race where he ran out when clear and certain to win and the Champion Stakes where he tore off like a bat out of hell and gave himself no hope of lasting home.

Make no mistake Echo of Light is one of the best horses on the planet. He may not have the same high profile as others. But I'll be very interested in his prospects if he's switched to dirt for the Dubai Carnival.

HALICARNASSUS (40) ran a seriously big race for a three year old to run second, earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a horse his age beyond a sprint trip all season. It looked like the nine furlongs wasn't quite far enough for him as he got outpaced a couple of times and only realy got going in the last furlong, closing fast and late to pass three horses.

Halicarnassus clearly failed to stay 1m 5f at Newmarket a few runs back. And it's obvious he found the seven furlongs too short in the Greenham. Otherwise his record in small fields is spotless.

Hold up horses with a serious turn of foot like Halicarnassus often have trouble finding a run. As a result many if not most of them are best in small fields. And for most 'small field' horses the cut off point is eleven runners. When more than eleven line up they have traffic problems.

Toss out those runs at the wrong trip and you'll find that before this loss Halicarnassus had won every single one of his remaining five starts in small fields. On this occasion it took a world class horse to beat him over a trip that was probably on the short side for him.

Halicarnassus has shown that he is effective on all sorts of going and types of track. And crucially, he has demonstrated that he can produce brilliant, race-winning acceleration off a slow pace. That is exactly what wins the big international middle-distance Goup 1's these days as most of them are slow run affairs. Therefore I think trainer Mick Channon was right to outline some very ambitious international plans for Halicarnassus in a recent interview. As I see it the horse has a great chance of winning something like the Hong Kong Cup or Vase, the Breeders' Cup Turf or the Canadian International.

ALFATHAA MIGHT WELL BE A GROUP 1 HORSE

ALFATHAA (34) clocked a Listed class time when winning a mile maiden at Newbury and looked as though he could easily run a fair bit faster.

In the early stages Alfathaa was clearly moving much the best. Shortly after halfway his jockey was sitting stock still while the arms of every other rider were busy pumping away. Two furlongs out he moved smoothly into the lead without coaxing. Finally with a furlong to run his jockey asked him to go and win his race and the response was tremendous. Despite running green Alfathaa surged away from his rivals to win ears pricked with any amount in hand.

Willie Haggas, the trainer of Alfathaa, said his charge was still immature. This looks right as the horse is still narrow enough to need a breast plate to keep his saddle in place. Nonetheless he will surely find it hard to resist taking up one of the colt's entries in the Royal Lodge or Racing Post Trophy.

Alfathaa is built for middle distances and I can see him developing into a very smart colt next year. He might well be a Group 1 horse.

LOVELACE IS SERIOUSLY GOOD AT SEVEN FURLONGS

LOVELACE (40) earned a very good Group 2 class speed rating to take the Supreme Stakes at Goodwood from a smart field of older rivals. He's now won all four times that he's run seven furlongs.

The Prix Foret is a logical target for Lovelace now. Though I have to say it does look like being rather a hot race this year. So perhaps the Challenge Stakes is a better option.

STEPPE DANCER IS VERY SMART ON THE POLY

I gave STEPPE DANCER (40) a Group class speed rating when he won on Kempton's Polytrack back in March. And he ran even faster to take the Group 3 September Stakes at the same course last week.

It looks like Steppe Dancer is a far better horse on Polytrack than he is on grass. After all he's now won all four times he's run beyond a sprint trip on Polytrack but has won just one minor race from eight starts on turf.

AL THARIB (39) chased Steppe Dancer home, running a bit quicker than he had when scoring over the same course last time. He looks a more likely candidate for turf races than the winner, as long as he gets fast ground. He certainly ran fast enough to win a decent Group race here.

LION SANDS ran a Group class time earlier in the season when breaking his maiden on firm turf. He hasn't quite run up to that level in two starts in Group company on slower turf. But on this surface that basically mimics firm turf he once more ran a very big race for a three year old.

It seems to me that Lion Sands still has any amount of potential. I see him winning very good races on firm turf or Polytrack in future.

ENLIGHTENMENT A SMART NOVICE CHASER

ENLIGHTENMENT (37) broke the course record when winning on his chasing debut at Stratford. He's highly regarded by connections, rightly so judged on the time he ran here. But at this stage it's tough to say exactly what circumstances suit him best. So far his three wins have all followed rests. That may well just be happenstance though. I think the best guidance probably comes from his trainer who believes he's best on fast ground and will stay a lot longer than two miles.

Normally the novice chasers that rack up a sequence of wins get hammered by the smarter fencing recruits that start running in October. Enlightenment is one horse that should be more than capable of making a successful transition to better company. In fact I'd anticipate seeing him at one of the big Festival meetings next Spring.

RAVEN'S PASS RUNS FREAKISHLY FAST

The speed rating I awarded RAVEN'S PASS (40) for his win in the Solario Stakes is very likely to be the biggest of the season. It was a huge performance.

Held up off the fast pace set by Maze (23) Raven's Pass came through smoothly to lead two furlongs out. From there he was ridden right out all the way till just before the line and proceeded to go well clear of the field. He was tiring visibly in the last 100 yards, his stride shortening dramatically. But it was so late and he was so far clear his jockey was actually able to start easing him down in the last four or five strides.

Raven's Pass is a very mature, good-bodied colt who has already run as fast as most 2000 Guineas winners. I do however have a few concerns about him.

The first and most immediate concern I have about Raven's Pass is that he had a very hard race here. I know that two year olds can recover more quickly than older horses. But I'd still like to see a break of at least five weeks between this race and his next outing. If he's brought back for the Champagne Stakes or Royal Lodge later this month I'd be inclined to bet that he'd 'bounce' (i.e. regress in form due to the effects of a hard and fast recent race).

If he were mine I'd keep him fresh for the Dewhurst Stakes in October and then put him away for the season.

The second concern I have about Raven's Pass involves those three letters in brackets after his name 'USA'.

I produced research a few months ago which showed that the strike rate of American bred horses drops markedly with age when they're racing against runners bred elsewhere. I am convinced this is because steroids are legal in America. I believe that the import of American bred horses should be stopped until the US authorities prohibit the use of steroids because it gives their two year olds and early three year olds a huge edge over those bred elsewhere. The relative performance of US bred horses indicate that they mature earlier than those bred elsewhere, and nobody is ever going to convince me this is due to anything other than steroids.

In my experience the fastest American bred two year olds don't tend to make much, if any improvement from two to three.

The final concern I have about Raven's Pass is stamina. The way he tired in the last furlong over seven furlongs here makes me concerned about his ability to go a mile. His sire was more of a seven furlong horse than a miler, scoring three of his four stakes wins at the distance and breaking the seven furlong track record at Gulfstream Park. Raven's Pass very nearly broke the all-aged track record over seven furlongs at Sandown and did lower the juvenile standard. I'm worried that he may take after his sire in regards to his distance preference.

Having said all that I have to concede this was a sensational run from a two year old. If he's kept fresh for the Dewhurst I'd be very wary of betting against him.

FAT BOY THE ONE TO BEAT IN MILL REEF

I once carried out a large scale survey of all Britain's top trainers and found that Richard Hannon's two year olds improved with racing more than those of any other handler. Their performances got steadily better on average all the way up to their fifth run.

FAT BOY (37), Hannon's first two year old runner of the season back in early April, was having his seventh run of the year when he ran in the Champion Two Year Old Trophy at Ripon. And he hasn't stopped improving yet because he earned the biggest speed rating I've yet given him for his three length success. He now ranks as one of the top ten two year olds on the clock.

It could be that Fat Boy has been improved by front running tactics as most of the pundits seem to believe. But, whatever the reason, I'll be very wary of betting against him in the Mill Reef Stakes next time out. He ran slightly faster here than the average winner of that race and looks the one they all have to beat if my speed ratings are any guide.

GOLAN KNIGHT CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER

GOLAN KNIGHT (35) is clearly built and bred for middle-distances. So it's somewhat surprising he was cut back to six furlongs for three runs following his appearance in the seven furlong Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Stepped back up to the longer trip he won a Chester Nursery in taking style, earning a pattern class speed rating from me in the process.

Golan Knight set a strong pace that steadily got more and more of his rivals in trouble. His jockey kicked off the bend and Golan Knight looked set to power clear until ALAN DEVONSHIRE (35) came out of the pack to chase him home, the pair rapidly putting plenty of daylight between themselves and their pursuers.

I'm not sure that seven furlongs will prove far enough for Golan Knight on a straight course. I suspect he might get outpaced unless he encountered soft ground. I'd like to see him step up to a mile next time and would happily bet him to stay a mile and a quarter even as a juvenile. Next year he looks set to develop into at least a good middle-distance handicapper. Normal physical improvement would make him a Listed/Group 3 horse and a good candidate for a Derby Trial.

Alan Devonshire is a brother to Missed The Boat, a dual Listed winner over twelve furlongs this year. The searching pace set by the winner pulled him into the race late. But, as with the winner, I'd worry about his chances in a normal seven furlong race. He did win over the trip last time. However that was at Newcastle, a pretty stiff track.

Alan Devonshire looks rather immature. And when he made his run at the winner he showed a peculiar uncoordinated action. He almost seemed to be flailing the ground with his forelegs and became somewhat unbalanced. I see him improving a good deal more than most two year olds over the Winter and being a very interesting prospect for good races over a mile and a half about a year from now. I wouldn't be too surprised if he floundered in his final few starts at two if he's kept on the go as he'll probably not find a race where his obvious stamina can come into play as much as it did here. Still, if he stepped up to a mile he'd be interesting in another nursery.

DELLINI COULD BE A 1000 GUINEAS CANDIDATE

DELLINI (36) looked to have no chance until the closing stages of a hot little juvenile Conditions race at Chester over six furlongs. She's built and bred for longer and ran just like a miler against sprinters. She was stone last and being scrubbed along to try and stay in touch almost all the way. Finally though her stamina kicked in very late and her jockey switched her out to make a run at the leaders in the final furlong. She looked horribly green and uncoordinated at this point but got sort of balanced and then gained ground very rapidly in the final hundred yards or so to get up on the line. In another 100 yards she'd have been a wide margin winner so fast was she travelling at the finish.

It was only the strong pace that pulled Dellini into this. I wouldn't like to bet her to reproduce this form over six furlongs in future. She will surely be stepped up to seven furlongs next time. If she is I can see her winning in Listed or Group company. And over a mile she might well be good enough to have a shot in the 1000 Guineas.

Runner up FANATICAL (36) only lost by a short head. But I doubt that she'll prove anything like as good as the winner. She's just a sprinter. I imagine the main job with her will be to earn some black type over five or six furlongs as a juvenile because three year old sprinting fillies have a desperately hard time winning against older males. She's certainly good enough to take a Listed or Group 3 race at two and there are still a few targets left.

VAN BOSSED CAN FOLLOW UP

VAN BOSSED (35) broke his maiden over five furlongs at Catterick in rather impressive style. With two furlongs to run he was the only runner still comfortable with the strong pace the field were going. And he pulled nicely clear when shaken up to win with a bit in hand despite jinking right then left suddenly in the closing stages.

Seeing that he's a big, strong mature type who looks built and bred for around a mile I would say it was lack of experience rather than stamina that beat him in his earlier races over longer trips.

If, as seems likely, Van Bossed goes for a nursery rather than a pattern race next time he'll surely be hard to beat. He'd also be interesting in Listed company as my ratings indicate that's his level. I'd like to see him go six furlongs next time as he was moving so strongly at the finish it's hard to believe he won't improve for the extra furlong.

AL THARIB IS GROUP CLASS

AL THARIB (38) was an impressive winner of a Conditions race on Kempton's Polytrack. And, despite the small field, the pace was fast enough for him to break the track record.

Al Tharib's jockey, Richard Hills, said after the race that his mount must have fast ground. This seems right. Al Tharib beat subsequent Royal Ascot scorer Heron Bay the only time he encountered what my going allowances say was genuinely firm ground beyond a sprint trip. It may be significant that previous win came at Chester which, like Kempton, is a very tight track. But at this stage it's too early to say that the horse needs tight turns. All I can say for sure is that he is Group class on Polytrack and almost certainly on firm turf too.

CANDIDATO ROY WORTH FOLLOWING

JACK SULLIVAN (37) won a hot little Conditions race over seven furlongs at Warwick in pattern class time. Watching him run it struck me how much smaller he was than his rivals. This being so it's surely significant that he has won the last three times he's run in single figure fields and lost the last nine times he hasn't.

It may well be that on dirt Jack Sullivan can handle big fields because the runners tend to spread themselves out more and traffic is less of a problem. But when he faces bigger fields on grass or Polytrack I'd be inclined to side against him as he must have trouble fighting for position against bigger rivals.

CANDIDADO ROY (36) is certainly a great deal bigger than Jack Sullivan. And despite showing his old problem of pulling too hard he ran a smart race to finish second

Candidato Roy seems to be a seven furlong specialist. He was officially the Champion two year old colt in South Africa in 2004 when he won the Group 1 South Africa Nursery over seven furlongs at Turffontein.

Candidato Roy showed he was good as ever last year when blasting home in seriously fast time over six and a half furlongs at Nad Al Sheba. I gave him a borderline Group 1 speed rating for that win. The form of the race certainly worked out well as the second and fourth went on to win Group races (the third never ran again).

Candidato Roy clearly doesn't act on dirt. But he's won four of his nine starts on turf. Four of his five losses came in races where he pulled too hard. So it would be interesting if he was switched to a very strong jockey such as Johnny Murtagh, Mick Kinane, Kevin Darley or Jimmy Fortune in the near future. They'd probably have a better chance of anchoring him early.

Trainer Willie Haggas is clearly expecting big things from Candidato Roy. He has just entered him for the Group 1 Prix Foret, Europe's seven furlong Championship event. I see him as in interesting candidate there.

COCONUT MOON IS SMART AROUND A TURN

I don't tend to mention fast performances by British sprinters here because there are simply way too many of them. However I think it is worth noting the fast time clocked by the mare COCONUT MOON (39) at Chester. She is clearly tough to beat around a turn of firm turf or Polytrack. If she were mine I'd take her to America where she could race against her own sex and run exclusively on turning courses. Over there she'd be fast enough to win Graded Stakes. In Britain she mostly has to run against males and on straight courses.

Next time Coconut Moon goes around a turn at five furlongs on Polytrack or firm turf I'd bet on her winning again.