LUCKY STORY TOUGH TO BEAT IN CHAMPION STAKES

The QEII is a very odd race. It's run over a mile, but the track is so stiff and the early pace invariably so fast that it frequently falls to a middle distance horse. In winning the big race this year, RAKTI (45) became the eleventh victor in the last5 15 years to have previously paced over a mile and a quarter. In fact, both Rakti and last year's winner Falbrav had previously scored in Group 1 company at a mile and a half.

Rakti equaled the biggest speed figures I've awarded this season, matching the marks I gave to Azamour for his win in the Irish Champion Stakes and to Doyen for his success in the Hardwicke Stakes. He's clearly a seriously good horse, and with Falbrav now retired, he looks right on track to take his big target of the season, the Hong Kong Cup in December.

The bookies have now introduced Rakti as favourite for the Breeders' Cup Mile. But, as I see it, the idea of him going for that race is plain daft and I'm sure his shrewd connections only floated the idea due to post-race euphoria. Rakti,a very high strung horse, benefited from being allowed to go down to the start early at Ascot. The one meeting where that would never be allowed is the Breeders' Cup. The horses have to endure a lengthy parade, walking up and then down past the grandstand. In addition, there is a whole world of difference between the QEII, which suits ten furlong horses, and the Breeders' Cup Mile, which suits European sprinters due to the slow early pace at which it is run. Rakti would almost certainly boil over in the long parade in Texas, pull like a train against the slow early pace, have trouble negotiating the very tight turns on the seven furlong circuit and then get outpaced as the sprint to the line began. In my opinion it's 100-1 against him even reaching the first four there.

LUCKY STORY (44) ran a big race to finish second, demonstrating the he needs a greater test of stamina than he got in the slow run Prix du Mouilin last time. The step up to ten furlongs for the Champion Stakes is a very logical move and it's hard to see what could beat him in that race. The Champion stakes is often a soft Group 1 these days, due to its close proximity to new and more valuable alternative races for horses that might otherwise contest it. It offers Lucky Story the best chance of gaining the Group 1 win he deserves before presumably being bundled off to stud.

Refuse To Bend (42) ran bang up to form by finishing third. He's been very well placed (and a bit lucky) to win four Group 1 races, seeing that he's never run a speed figure better than a good Group 2 winner would earn. I don't know where he goes next but hopefully it won't be to the Breeders' Cup. He's surely demonstrated enough times by now that he simply can't handle a tight track like Lone Star Park.

Nayyir (41) always seems to run his race and will try to make it eighth time lucky in Group 1 company in the Prix Foret. He might just take that race, but I suspect that his best shot of finally winning at the highest level would be back in the Dubai Duty Free next March. I've always believed that a horse is at its best at the outermost limits of its stamina, so I reckon the nine furlongs of the Duty Free will suit Nayyir a whole lot better than the seven furlongs of the Foret.

At this time of year you tend to see some fast handicappers emerge from the woodwork in relatively low grade races as they prep fro the big end of season handicaps. BLUE TROJAN (38) seems to fit neatly into this category after his win in fast time at Kempton.

Blue Trojan seems to be one of those odd horses that is at their best following a very recent race. All his wins since his maiden success have come off a break of seven days or less. I'd also speculate that he is not at his best on tracks with a significant downhill section in them. His trainer said as much after his loss at Goodwood back in May. Even the prolonged 1 in 60 downhill gradient on the Polytrack at Lingfield seems to cause him to run a bit below form. In any event, it looks significant that Blue Trojan has now had four runs since his maiden win on tracks without a big downhill section in them off a break of a week or less and won every single time.

If Blue Trojan makes the cut in the Cambridgeshire and has a race within the preceding week, I wouldn't discount his chances. In the meantime, if he's brought back again quickly for another run I'd be wary of opposing him on any relatively flat track.

A horse with an even bigger chance in the first leg of the Autumn double is ST ANDREWS (41) who banged out a big Group 2 speed figure for the second time in two tries on softer ground. He bolted up by seven lengths from a strong field at Haydock and would surely be a good thing for the Cambridgeshire if the going rode yielding or softer as it does about a third of the time for the big race. If here were mine I'd be thinking of the Group 2 Premio Ribot over in Italy in November for St Andrews. It often comes up soft for that race.

REGAL SETTING (40) gets my vote for being the best handicapped horse in training following his win at Haydock. He lost both his seasonal debuts so far but is unbeaten in all his other starts and earned a rating from me that would take many Group 2 contests here. Long term, Regal Setting looks an interesting prospect for Cup races next season. In the meantime though his trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, will surely indulge in his specialty of winning a bunch of handicaps in a row with such a favorably weighted runner.

Runner-up BIG MOMENT (40) has run close in a whole stack of big races both on the flat and over hurdles. He showed here that he's as good as ever and ran a seriously good trial for the Cesarewitch. If he fails to win there I'd bear him in mind for a valuable staying hurdle soon after.

TRANCE (38) ran a big race to finish third, well clear of the race. He's also in the Cesarewitch, but I doubt he'll be winning there because of the huge field. Trance only faced six rivals here, and that seems to suit him. According to my research, most horses that require small fields are best in races with 11 or fewer starters. Prior to this run Trance had won three of the five times he'd run in races with 11 runners or less but lost all ten times he'd raced in bigger fields. He won in fast time over a mile on the AW, so I'll be very interested in his chances if he returns to the sand, even at a much shorter distance than the 14 furlongs he ran over here.

CAMROSE (38) is another unexposed type who won a 12 furlong Classified Stakes on the same card in equally fast time. The three year old clearly improved for the step up in distance and is looking interesting for one of the big Autumn handicaps.

Camrose only just beat the promising Godolphin three year old ELMUSTANSER (38) home. Elmustanser ran a bit green last time and may still have suffered from lack of experience on what was only his fourth lifetime start. He's a brother to Dubai World Cup winner Almutawakel and will no doubt be run on the dirt in Dubai during the winter. I can see him developing into a useful performer over there. He ran a time here that would win most Listed races and quite a few Group 3's. So, providing he gets the fast ground dirt-bred runners invariably need, he could easily win something decent on grass before then.

Yet another progressive young handicapper is STRAW BEAR (37) who I mentioned here after his last start. He went and ran away with a Haydock handicap and may well be capable of running quicker yet.

KEHAAR (39) could be described as a progressive young handicapper after his win in fast time at Ascot. But I doubt that we'll be seeing him run in a handicap again. Kehaar is a seriously smart seven furlong Group class performer who looks a very interesting prospect for the big races at what his connection feel is his specialist distance next year.

MAZUNA (38) and MY RENEE (38) ran decent speed figures to fight out the finish of the Princess Royal Stakes at Ascot. Clearly Mazuna has improved significantly since they learned she needs to be held up till the last minute. I can see her winning another Group race before the season is out. She will apparently get her chance in next month's Premio Lydia Tesio, recently upgraded to Group 1 status, at the Capannelle in Italy next month.

My Renee missed work through a stone bruise a week before the race, so she did well to go under by a mere short head. If the photo had gone the other way this would have been her fourth win in four tries at 12 furlongs. Her connections are apparently considering a trip to America to ensure she gets the firm ground they feel she needs. I assume they're thinking in terms of the Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct in November. That race is run over 12 furlongs.

It's not often you see a horse that's won a Group 2 and finished second in two Group 1's contesting a claimer. So it's not that surprising only Carroll claimed ENDLESS SUMMER (38) for one of his owners when the horse ran for a 15,000 pound tag a few starts back. It looked like money well spent at Leicester when the old boy won a five furlong class D handicap in a time that would give him a shot in a big sprint handicap. He's now gone on to win again, confirming that view.

BLUE MAUVE (37) is another sprinter that put up a fast time recently in a low grade race. He lowered the course record for five furlongs at Pontefract thanks to lightning fast ground and a tailwind. It seems that he's a short runner and needs a super fast surface to even get the minimum distance. He'd be kind of interesting for this reason over the minimum trip during the winter on the Polytrack. Meanwhile, if he hits really firm ground again he's very capable of following up this win.

Yet another fast sprinter is JOHNNY EBENEEZER (39) who ran a Group 3 class time to win at Haydock. His trainer seems to feel that he needs a smart jockey who can kid him along. Hayley Turner seems to fit that bill and is clearly an up and coming rider. Previously the connections had always tried to book Dettori. Now it looks like they've found an able substitute.

My read of Johnny Ebeneezer is that he can win in big fields but is best in races with less than a dozen starters. He's won the last four times he's run in grass sprints in fields that small.

PIC UP STICKS (39) ran equally fast to win a valuable handicap sprint at Ripon. I'd be wating a while to follow him though. All his three wins since his maiden success have come on one of his first two starts following a lay-off. He's won three times out of five in these circumstances and went close in the Wokingham in one of his losses. I imagine he'll be shipping over to Nad Al Sheba again this winter for the fast ground. He'll be interesting in his first couple of starts over there, and on his first two outings back in Britain next season too.

FORWARD MOVE (31) lowered the juvenile record for at mile at Newmarket by over a second when winning a maiden by five lengths. However, he had the assistance of a tailwind which was speeding the runners up by a huge 1.8 seconds a mile by my estimates. So I wouldn't go overboard about him. However, he is almost certainly at least Listed class and could be better than that, so he's worth keeping an eye on.

MOTH BALL (32) is another two year old worth watching following his win in Listed class time in a Brighton nursery. Moth Ball beat the smart Yajbill the only other time he's raced on a track with a significant downhill section (Goodwood). It could be that he's best on tracks such as Brighton, Chepstow, Goodwood and Lingfield. More likely his defeats at other venues have simply been due to the fact that he got hampered when losing narrowly at Musselburgh and may not have acted on the yielding ground at Warwick.

COUNTRY RAMBLER (35) won in surprisingly fast time for what was basically a public exercise gallop against a single rival at Ripon. It could well be that he wasn't getting home over longer trips in his previous couple of starts due to pulling hard. In any event this was a Group 3 class performance, and I'd be interested to see Country Rambler in a race around that level back at six furlongs.

The big two year old races at Ascot continued the trend of ho hum times run at Group level by juveniles.

Pastperformance (35) took the Royal Lodge, but I wouldn't fancy his chances at Group 1 level.

Playful Act (33) won the Fillies Mile. She was allowed to set her own pace which probably accounts for the slowish time. She ran a good deal quicker to take the May Hill stakes, earning a Group 1 speed figure from me on that occasion. The May Hill stakes has proven a terrific guide to the Fillies Mile over the years. In fact, if Calando hadn't been denied a clear run and lost by a neck in 1999 and Midnight Air hadn't been disqualified in 1991, seven of the eleven May Hill winners to run in this race over the last 27 years would now have won.

INTO THE DARK MOVES INTO THE TOP DIVISION

Having tipped INTO THE DARK (43) at 40-1 for the St Leger, it is with somewhat mixed feelings that I report he's just gone and run a time that in my estimation would have given him a comfortable win in the final classic - if only he'd run.

I've whittered on about Into The Dark an awful lot on my website, noting how he ran so fast at Newmarket, and how the form of that race has worked out so incredibly well. Now it looks clear that he's set to be Godolphin's big older horse for next year. In the meantime I think he almost certainly needs what the Americans and Australians call 'seasoning'. That is, he needs to have a horse somewhere near his class make a run at him in a race that requires a major effort on his part to repel. So far he's won four times out of four without ever really breaking sweat.

In my experience horses like Into The Dark tend to lose if they're simply thrown into the deep end in a big international Group 1 against older horses for the first time. They may be faster than their rivals but they get shocked at the strength of the challenges that are made and normally run below their best. I guess the best approach is to simply get that run out of the way and move on from there. After all, Godolphin have shown in the past that they're not all precious and commercial about protecting a horse's unbeaten record in order to sustain its stud value. In any event, I await future developments with great interest.

Runner-up Percussionist (39) confirmed that he's just a bit shy of Group 1 class by running a five length second. He's capable of winning a Group 2 or 3 race but I rather suspect he's going to be over-ambitiously placed and over bet in his next few starts, so I can't recommend following him.

BONECRUSHER (39) ran a big race to be third. A lot of people see him as 'quirky' and unreliable. But I note with interest that he would have won both the previous times he'd run on soft ground if he hadn't been an unlucky short head loser in the City and Suburban handicap. This makes three big runs out of three on soft ground for Bonecrusher. He also ran a big race on the All Weather the only time he tried the surface, so it may well be he simply needs a surface that takes the emphasis off finishing speed. I'll be very interested in his chances next time he encounters squidgy going or the AW.

Funfair Wane (42) ran a time that would win most Group races when taking the Ayr Gold Cup. he thing is, there are gazillions of fast sprinters in Britain and there's nothing between the Group sprinters and the handicappers. As a result, with huge fields for all the top sprints, and with the draw and luck in running playing such a big part, it's not easy for even a very smart sprinter to win more than once in a while. For this reason, quick as he is, I can't really recommend following Funfair Wane.

Similar comments apply to The Tatling (42) who took a Group 3 sprint at Newbury in equally fast time.

We're finally beginning to see some decent winners of juvenile pattern races. PRINCE CHARMING (36) certainly fits into this category after his win in fast time in Ayr's Harry Roseberry Stakes.

All of Prince Charming's wins to date have been on yielding or softer ground. His dam seems to be a terrific influence for slower surfaces. The vast majority of the wins scored by her other six successful progeny were on yielding or softer turf or on a deep and slow artificial surface.

Trainer John Gosden has said that Prince Charming should run just as well on a firmer surface, but the balance of probability says we shouldn't bet on that till there's some supporting evidence. Meanwhile though if it comes up soft for the Middle Park Prince Charming would have a serious chance. He rates as one of the better two year olds off this run.

MARY READ (34) ran a good race to chase Prince Charming home and would be quick enough to take a Group race against her own sex at the minimum distance - if only one were available. A real speedball, she may well be at her best when able to dominate a small field from the front. So far she's won two out of two in fields of less than 12 since her debut and lost all her other starts.

Sir Mark Prescott isn't known as 'the handicap king' for nothing. He's a master at playing the system and getting a horse well handicapped. Now he's got himself a three year old that is so incredibly well handicapped that I can see him winning something like half a dozen races in a row. The horse I'm talking about is CIRCASSIAN (38) who earned a Group 3 class speed rating when romping away with a mere class E handicap at Yarmouth the other day off a mark of just 67.

Circassian lost narrowly (earning a rating of 36) when he Prescott first employed his trademark maneuver of stepping him up to a longer distance. He ran fast enough that day to merit a mention here. He improved on that run here and must surely be the best handicapped horse in training. I wouldn't oppose him in the immediate future. This is just the kind of horse Prescott can bring up through the ranks and win a big handicap with.

Circassian has in fact gone on to win another race now. But he's not the only well handicapped three year old stayer Sir Mark Prescott has in his yard. REGAL SETTING (37) is clearly another after his win against an unusually strong field for a 0-85 handicap at Nottingham.

Regal Setting isn't as well handicapped as Circassian. He still looks capable of winning a few more times before the end of the season though.

Runner-up KIND EMPEROR (35) is kind of interesting. There aren't that many meetings at Yarmouth, but he was running at the track for the tenth time in a row. He's only ever won at the course, so I assume he runs here because he has had a history of muscle problems and Yarmouth is the nearest dead flat track to Newmarket, where he is trained.

Probably due to the muscle problems, Kind Emperor had previously shown his best form when fresh prior to this run. In fact he's won three times out of three over a mile plus at Yarmouth when he's been laid off for five weeks or more. His other win was also at Yarmouth and was the second start off a break (the first being in a sprint).

I note with interest that there is a meeting at Yarmouth on the fifth of November, and another on the 16th of October. I'd be very interested if Kind Emperor were kept fresh for the November meeting and still rather interested if he came back to Yarmouth for their October fixture.

Prescott wheeled out yet another improving three year old in a handicap at Ayr with STRAW BEAR (36). Using his patented step up in distance maneuver, Prescott delivered a useful looking winner who remains eligible for races he should be able to dominate.

Sir Mark even pulled off his little wheeze in a nursery when COMIC STRIP (31) stepped up to a mile and ran a useful time to win at Ayr. Comic Strip has now won three of his four starts and could easily take a Listed race.

One of the fastest times of the last week was put up by a horse that I confess I just don't understand. This was YOUNG MR GRACE (38) who ran a pattern class time to take a good class C handicap at the big Ayr meeting. Maybe Young Mr Grace is best in small fields. Perhaps he needs a stiff track or soft ground to make it a real test. I don't know. All I do know is that he has won or lost by less than a length in five of his last seven races. He looks capable of making his mark in some of the better handicaps.

Runner-up JAZZ SCENE (37) ran fourth by five and a half lengths in a Group 3 a couple of starts back and has frequently tackled some pretty hot company. He showed that he handles heavy ground here and that he might well appreciate a bit further than the eight furlongs of this race with the way he stayed on. He looks like a likely winner in the near future.

Smart three year old maiden winners are rare at this time of year. But BATIK (36) certainly fits into that category after her recent victory at Bath. She was scrubbed along from a long way out but finally found her obvious stamina coming into play in the closing stages. She was backward according to Raceform when third over a hopelessly inadequate mile on her only previous start and looks a likely candidate to take one of the many Listed races for fillies that abound at this time of year. In fact, looking at the official ratings of the second and third (74 and 70) it looks likely that Batik may be awarded a mark of 80 or even lower. That would make her eligible for a very ordinary handicap that she should be able to win with ease next time.

MOORS MYTH (36), a fast and wide margin winner of a maiden at Musselburgh the same day, looks set to be even more leniently handicapped than Batik, since the second and third in his race had official ratings of 47 and 49. He has clearly improved for his first few starts and should be tough to beat in a class D or lower handicap next time.

Clive Brittain has a nice juvenile filly on his hands in AMALIE (33) who posted a Listed/Group 3 class time to win a Redcar maiden impressively. I'd think long and hard before opposing her next time out. She could easily be one of the top two year old fillies.

JAY GEE'S CHOICE (36) bounced back to form to take a decent little Classified Stakes at Pontefract. He's made all the running in all three wins he's scored so far, and it seems to me he's probably best when able to dominate a small field from the front like this. His three runs in fields of seven or less have produced two wins and a second to the smart Mubeen. A small field for most horses is 11 runners or less. But it's tough to tell whether this is small enough for Jay Gee's Choice as his runs in fields between eight and 11 starters have been over seven furlongs, and it may well be that he now needs a mile to do his best. In any event, if he can be found another race with a field of 11 or less soon I'd say he can follow up.

Runner-up NAMROC (36) did well to get so close after being outpaced when the front runner quickened it up before the two furlong pole. he way he stayed on suggests that he mat well improve over further than a mile. In any event, with just three runs under his belt, Namroc is clearly a promising horse who looks set to win soon.

Sights On Gold (39) ran a solid Group 3 rating to take Newbury's Arc Trial. But he's now likely to step up into Group 2 company which my ratings and his form indicate he's not quite up to. Runner-up IMPERIAL DANCER (38) doesn't have such problems, and had run quicker on his previous start, as well as on numerous other occasions. He'd looked a good thing to win the race beforehand but he only lost narrowly in what was a messy race. He still looks on target for a repeat of last year's win in the Premio Roma. In fact anywhere he runs on a dead flat galloping track I'd rate him a threat.

BEWARE OF CAESAR, HE'S THE THE TOP TWO YEAR OLD

CAESAR BEWARE (38) had a strong tailwind to help him, so many may be inclined to discount the fact that he broke the course record when winning the valuable St Leger Yearling Sales stakes at Doncaster. But the fact is he ran only a fraction of a second slower in comparison with my standard times than the winner of the Portland Handicap, the very next race. The Portland Handicap is one of the top sprints, and the top sprint handicappers are basically as fast as the Group sprinters. So, any way you cut it, even incorporating the biggest adjustment for a tailwind that I've ever used, Caesar Beware's run ranks as a solid Group 1 performance for a two year old, and the best we've seen anywhere in Europe so far this season.

Caesar Beware has of course run awfully fast before, so his performance was not that big a surprise. It's just a pity he's a gelding which means he won't get a shot at the Group 1 glory that the clock says he deserves. At least he's eligible for the Group 2 Mill Reef stakes at Newbury on the 18th of September. He shouldn't have much trouble winning that race on this run. After which the Redcar two year old Trophy offers him another shot at a big prize. If things go as they should Caesar Beware may well end up the top two year old and head the Free handicap. Then again, I dare say the official handicapper might be pressured to massage his figures and push Caesar Beware's rating down a bit. The idea of a gelding heading the Free handicap might just be too much to take for some.

DISTINCTLY GAME (35), the runner-up, is looking rather interesting now. His trainer said that the horse was still a bit weak and immature following his first win but that he was a seriously good horse. He was proven right here. Clearly it was a smart move giving Distinctly Game a two month mid-season break, as he now appears to have matured and improved, just as his trainer must have hoped. It looks clear too that the step up to six furlongs was a good move.

With just one win in six starts and losing runs on the AW and a nursery handicap, Distinctly Game doesn't look like a Group horse on paper. But that's what the clock says he is. So I'm rather hoping he jumps up to Listed or Group 3 company next time. He'd likely start at big odds but would have a terrific chance of winning. In a nursery he'd be a near cert.

In the previous race on the same card, one of the season's most valuable nurseries, Godolphin continued their new policy of running good horses in handicaps with SWAN NEBULA (33) who put up a time that would win many Group races for two year old fillies to score clearly.

Swan Nebula was the latest in a long line of nursery winners this season to run a pattern class time. I don't quite know why this new trend has developed so strongly this season. But it certainly makes for some prospective value bets when the fast nursery winners - Cupid's Glory, Coleorton Dancer, Merchant, Nufoos and Swan Nebula - step up to pattern company.

YAJBILL (33) continued the fast nursery winner theme when winning by five lengths at Epsom. He's won both his starts in pattern class time since having visors applied and ought to be given a shot at some black type now. His pedigree says pretty clearly that he will stay a mile, so it would be interesting to see him go up a furlong or two from the six furlongs of this race. He's own by Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum, so I imagine he'll be switching to Godolphin at the end of the season. That being so, I'd imagine his owner will be keen to test him in pattern company soon.

Another pretty quick two year old won on the same day at Epsom. This was INTRIGUED (32) who took a maiden over the extended mile in unusually fast time. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has Intrigued entered in a bunch of Group races including the Fillies' Mile. The time only puts her around Listed class, but she won by a big margin and may well be able to improve on this.

This has been quite a week for two year olds. According to my ratings, not only did we see the fastest two year old colt in Caesar Beware, we also saw the fastest filly in PLAYFUL ACT (37).

Playful Act is a sister to Percussionist who was fancied for the Leger and a half sister to Echoes In Eetrnity who won the Park Hill stakes over the Leger trip at the same meeting. So she almost certainly benefited from the strong gallop set by Cassydora and Red Peony. Her long term target is the Oaks next year, and one has to wonder whether she might not get done for speed over a mile in a race run at a normal pace. We'll get the chance to find out in the Fillies' Mile.

QUEEN OF POLAND (37) and MAIDS CAUSEWAY (37) who finished close up in second and third, are the obvious candidates to beat Playful Act in the Fillies' Mile. Both are clearly high class fillies well capable of winning a Group 1. The Marcel Boussac looks a tempting target for either of them. The 33-1 offered about the pair for the 1000 Guineas looks awfully generous to me.

On the other hand the 10-1 offered about Etlaala (31) for the 2000 Guineas looks decidedly stingy after his win in ho-hum time in the Champagne stakes. I guess all he could do was win and remain unbeaten, but I'd need to see a whole lot more before being convinced he's Group 1 class. And, seeing the host of fast maiden and nursery winners now due to switch to Group company, I rather fancy that Etlaala is going to get beat next time out.

MIllenary (39) and Kasthari (39) produced a decent speed figure when dead heating for the Doncaster Cup. But it was only average for the class, so I doubt either are worth following. Similar comments apply to Celtic Mill (39) and Talbot Avenue who went 1-2 in Doncaster's Scarborough stakes.

The St Leger was even slower, thanks to the slow pace set by the winner Rule Of Law (31). All the result showed is that he can sprint the last few furlongs better than his rivals - hardly surprising seeing that his dam was a sprinter and that her other two foals were sprinters. I have a horrible feeling this year's Leger is going to set a trend in terms of pace. Today's horses are just not bred to get the Leger trip in a turly run race. It could well be that we're going to follow the trend that's been set in America, where the horses are even more speedily bred than they are here. Over there the jockeys almost never ask their mounts to go any sort of an early pace in races at a mile and a half or more.

One race that was run in above average time at Doncaster was the Mallard Stakes. This was won by the progressive three year old LOST SOLDIER THREE (38). My ratings say Luca Cumani is right to say Lost Soldier Three could develop into a Cup horse next year. Meanwhile it's interesting to reflect on how good Into The Dark must be. Into The Dark beat Lost Soldier Three and a whole host of subsequent winners on his last start while winning in fast time. He's looking more and more interesting as time goes by.

Another fast race was the Conditions event won by SECRET CHARM (40). Barry Hills had rested this filly since the Spring when he said she was not right (even so she finished close up fifth in the UK and Irish 1000 Guineas). He's clearly got her spot on now though. Her next target is the Joel stakes at Newmarket apparently. That's a Group 3 over a mile against colts which seems about right since Secret Charm earned a speed rating between Group 3 and Group 2 class here. Long term, if she's kept in training next year, Secret Charm might well be able to take a Group 1 against her own sex, especially if she stays ten furlongs as Barry Hills once suggested. I can understand the need to go for the Group 3 race first though. A group win of any sort will boost Secret Charm's stud value massively.

MILK IT MICK (39) finished a close second to Secret Charm. He clearly appreciated the switch to firmer ground and the step back up to a mile. If he sticks to seven furlongs or a mile now and gets the fast ground he needs I can see Milk It Mick finally scoring another Group win soon. The Joel stakes looks a logical target for him too.

Another possible candidate for the Joel stakes is FREE TRIP (37) who earned a Listed class rating from me when winning a hot class C handicap at Sandown. Jockey Richard Huges said afterwards that his mount was better in a small field. My studies show that for most horses anything under 12 runners counts as a small field (there is an big increase in interference when field size jumps from 11 to 12, and it's the increased traffic that generally causes horse like Free Trip to dislike big fields). Free Trip has won all three times he's encountered fields this small. His best chance of finding small fields would be in Listed and Group company. Handicaps tend to feature more runners. So, since he's run fast enough to win in pattern company, the step up in grade would seem a logical move.

At Goodwood ALKAADHEM (40) ran a rating that puts him in with a real shot in the Prix Dollar when taking a ten furlong Group 3. He's now won both times he's run ten furlongs, so the nine and three quarter furlongs of the Prix Dollar should be fine. Alkaadhem has been touted as a potentially top class horse on several occasions. Now, at ten furlongs, he finally may prove all the hype to be right.

For a horse that is much better on a straight course, according to the form book and his trainer, SALSELON (38) ran a good race to miss being second to Alkhaadem by only a short head on such a roller-coaster of a track. Luca Cumani's belief that Saleselon would be suited by a step up to ten furlongs was borne out by this run. I note with interest that he has Salselon entered up in the Champion stakes at Newmarket. That race is often a weak Group 1 these days. So, seeing it is run up the straight and over what seems to be Salselon's optimum trip, I'm hoping Salselon turns up. He could win at a big price there.

One great thing about speed ratings is that they sometimes alert you to big performances in the most unexpected of races. My favourite is when I find a really fast time in a selling race. That situation usually produces some excellent priced winners in non-sellers. Another, even less frequent big rating sometimes occurs in a maiden handicap. Maiden handicaps are generally as bad as seller. But not the one won at Bath recently by POLAR TRYST (36). This five year old came close to the track record when romping away by six lengths from a decent Loder-trained rival. In doing so he ran a time that in my estimation would win many Listed contests.

When last seen out Polar Tryst went down by a head to Analogy who went on to become a useful staying hurdler. He had Grey Clouds back in third, and that won has gone on to win three times since as well as going close in decent class C handicaps.

Polar Tryst ran off a mark of 62 at Bath. Even if the handicapper gives him a huge penalty he'll still be eligible for races well below his true class, so he looks well worth following.

At Goodwood ETTRICK WATER (39) won for the third time in his last four starts. He's obviously improved since being gelded and may well have a big race in him. He showed here that he doesn't need to dominate or require a small field, and that's something new for him really. Could be that's why my ratings say he continued his improvement here. In other words, he's gaining confidence and getting a bit more courageous as he keeps on racking up all these wins.

Over jumps the trend of exceptionally fast novice chasers continued when ISARD III (40) just managed to get by SHALAKO (40) at Bangor. Shalko had already earned a rating of 39 from me and I thought he was a near certainty but Isard III proved me wrong.

Isard II failed to win in three tries over fences in the 2003/2003 season but encountered yielding or soft ground every time. It looks clear that he needs a bit more bounce in the ground to clear fences effectively for he's now won all three of his completed starts over fences this term on good or faster going. If he were mine I'd be putting him away around October when the softer ground tends to start then bringing him back for the Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The ground is almost guaranteed to be fast there and Isard III has shown he can run quick enough to win that race.

Shalako once again showed how smart he is on fast ground and I wouldn't want to oppose him in the immediate future as long as he gets it. Long term, he looks a good bet to take a Graded novice chase if he gets his ground.

OLLIE MAGERN (36) was yet another novice chaser to run a fast time. This was on his chasing debut at Stratford. Ollie Magern went close at the last Aintree Festival over hurdles. If this were a normal season I'd say he was a good thing for the valuable novice chase coming up at Market Rasen next month. But with so many smart first season chasers around I'll wait for the day to see the strength of the competition. In a way I rather hope that Ollie Magern does come up against some of the very fast novice chasers we've seen so far in that race. He'd surely lose then be a better price when he runs in lesser company afterwards.

TOP SPRINTERS ARE A VINTAGE BUNCH

Looking at the results of the big sprints this year it's tempting to conclude that we have a moderate crop of sprinters. But the times they've been achieving actually suggest this is a truly vintage crop. The only reason the top sprinters seem to be taking turns beating each other is that there are so many exceptionally fast ones.

The Stanleyvet Sprint Cup at Haydock confirmed this view for the winner TANTE ROSE (45) equaled the biggest speed rating I've awarded in Britain, Ireland or France all season.

It now seems clear that Tante Rose doesn't really get seven furlongs well enough to win in top company. She won the Fred Darling stakes over seven, but she only earned a speed rating of 35 while doing so. She's lost the other seven times she's gone seven furlongs. It also looks obvious that Tante Rose is best when fresh. Like many horses she seems to show her best on her first two starts each season and then requires a break of five weeks or more in order to run well again. I guess you can argue about Tante Rose's ability to get seven furlongs, so it seems reasonable that she's to go for the Prix de la Foret over that trip next time. Personally I'll be betting she doesn't stay there. But I have to concede it's possible seeing that she has six weeks to freshen up before the big day.

The horse I'll be looking to beat Tante Rose at Longchamp is MONSIEUR BOND (41) who finished fifth behind her at Haydock. I've been banging on about this horse all season, saying he's the best seven furlong runner in training and that he has had his name all over the Prix de la Foret ever since that huge win he scored at the Curragh back in April.

I confess Monsieur Bond disappointed in the six and a half furlong Prix Maurice de Gheest. But I think I now know why. It seems to me that Monsieur Bond is not at his best in very crowded fields. All his wins have come in contests with 15 runners or less. He's run unplaced in all six pattern races he's contested with bigger fields. But when there have been 15 runners or less he's run much better. As I've mentioned before, I think Monsieur Bond needs good or slower ground to be effective at six furlongs but can handle any surface at seven. With that proviso his form at six and seven furlongs in fields of 15 or less now shows six wins in seven tries, with the loss being a most unlucky one when he was severely impeded.

SOMNUS (45) finished runner-up to Tante Rose, going down by only a short head. And I suspect he suffers from the opposite problem to Monsieur Bond. Monsieur Bond seems to have trouble avoiding traffic in big fields. But Somnus appears to need the faster early pace normally generated by a big field to run to his best. In fields of nine runners or less Somnus has blanked in four starts, running unplaced in three of them. But in bigger fields at his specialist distance of six furlongs (or six and a half) he's won eight times out of 11.

What's interesting is that in his last two starts Somnus has now run up to his best on ground that my going allowances say was actually on the fast side of good. So it would seem his reputation for preferring softer ground is all wrong.

After the race trainer Tim Easterby said of Somnus "They keep slagging him off - I don’t know why. He’s been the best sprinter around for two years but nobody gives him credit." Looking at my ratings, I have to agree with Easterby. Some sprinters occasionally run as fast or nearly as fast as he does, but no sprinter has earned so many big speed figures from me as Somnus in the last two years. I'm just thankful the horse is a gelding because it means he'll still be around next season.

Third placed PATAVELLIAN (44) won the Prix Abbaye last year and looks to have been specially laid out for a repeat bid this season. On this run it's going to take something very special to beat him at Longchamp, and I just don't see any horses around with the speed to get by him over five furlongs. As long as the ground isn't firm on the day I think he has a huge chance of pulling off the double.

I dare say most people will now be writing off ONE COOL CAT (40) as just another Coolmore hype horse after his sixth place finish. But my speed ratings reveal that he actually continued the improvement he's shown on each of his starts this season.

Seeing that he's totally bred for dirt, it could very well be that the reason One Cool Cat shows such amazing ability on his home gallops at Balydoyle is that they are dirt. Yes they have grass gallops at Ballydoyle, but I'd bet good money it's on the dirt surface Michael Dickinson helped build for them that One Cool Cat has been flying.

I've just watched many of America's best sprinters run in the Forego handicap at Saratoga, and I tell you this is not a vintage crop of sprinters in the states. One Cool Cat has been running well against a genuinely exceptional bunch of sprinters in Europe. And he's probably been doing it on the wrong surface. So I say forget about that Prix Abbaye entry. Take One Cool Cat to America and shoot for the Breeders' Cup Sprint on dirt. He could go off at enormous odds there, but I reckon he'd be worth having a punt on.

Earlier this season the big theme was fast times by three year olds in handicaps. Now the two year olds seem to be following suit with a series of big speed ratings earned in nurseries.

Normally you see a pattern class speed figure only once or twice a season in nursery handicaps. But we're only in the second month of these races so far and NUFOOS (31) was the fifth nursery winner to record a rating that high (the others being Cupid's Glory, Coleorton Dancer (twice) and Merchant).

Nufoos ran in pattern company on her previous two starts and trainer Mark Johnston says the aim is to step back up to that level and try to win a Listed race. That seems a logical move, though I imagine Johnston must also be eyeing the valuable Jersey Lily nursery at Newmarket which is restricted to fillies.

Satchem (32) showed that it's quite possible to step up from this year's unusually competitive nurseries to win against the freakishly slow bunch of horses we've seen so far in juvenile Group contests. She performed the feat in the Group 3 Sirenia stakes, but I wouldn't bet on her winning at this level again. The fast maiden and nursery winners are now stacking up and are surely going to overwhelm the vast majority of two year old Group winners we've seen so far.

A good example of what I'm talking about is the Godolphin juvenile SUNDAY SYMPHONY (34) who banged out a very decent Group class speed figure when powering away with a Thirsk maiden over a mile. He lowered the two year old track record for the trip by over half a second and would have beaten it by more than a second if Thirsk hadn't switched to electric timing. The old hand-timed record was set by Ivan Luis who went on to win a Group 2 and place in multiple Group 1's. Sunday Symphony looks set to go the same way. He is entered in the Epsom Derby and bred to get every yard of the trip. The logical target for him would surely be the ten furlong Criterium de Saint Cloud in November. He'd also be rather interesting in the Racing Post Trophy. I doubt that he'd get beaten before those races if he sticks to a mile or more.

The three year old ANOTHER BOTTLE (37) won for the third time in his last four starts in the prestigious Ripon Rowels Handicap. He's improving steadily and could easily take down a big handicap at some time.

Runner-up WILL HE WISH (37) is eight years old but is still plenty useful. His trainer, Steve Gollings, says he's best with some cut in the ground, which there was here. If the going stays squidgy I'd bet on the old boy winning next time, as long as he doesn't go for one of the really big handicaps.

Win machine GOODBYE MR BOND (37) won for the fifth time in the last three months when scoring at Haydock. He clocked a decent time here and his speed figures are on an upward swing, so I suspect he hasn't stopped winning yet.

I'm not fond of sprinters because so many factors that would be of small consideration in longer races (e.g. the draw, luck in running, variations in the going from one side of the course to another) can easily make the difference between victory and defeat. However, I just have to make note of old-timer MAROMITO (37) who put up a seriously good time to take a low grade sprint handicap at Salisbury. He has apparently had a pedal bone problem, which accounts for some gaps in his record. But he's clearly over it now and is going to be hard to stop next time seeing that his official handicap mark still allows him into races well below his true level.

Another sprinter worth noting is FOREVER PHOENIX (39) who scored in unusually fast time at Haydock. Forever Phoenix has been banging out Group 3 class speed figures all season, but this effort was slightly better than anything she's put up so far. It could well be that she's not quite as good in the height of summer when fillies are coming in an out of season. In this regard it's interesting to note she's won five of the last seven times she's run in sprints from September to May. She certainly looks interesting for the upcoming Portland Handicap.

At the other end of the distance scale I have to make mention of OCEAN AVENUE (37) who clocked a fast time to win a decent 0-85 handicap at Kempton. This was his fifth win in ten tries at twelve furlongs or more. He looks capable of winning something better.

Runner-up BLAZE OF COLOUR (36) is only three and looks very progressive on my speed figures. His last four ratings are 21, 28, 33 and now 36. Clearly he is improving with racing and ought to be able to win something soon.

ROSS COMM IS A TOP CLASS NOVICE CHASER

Over jumps, ROSS COMM (41) continued the trend of exceptional novice chasers that we've seen this summer. In fact, this Irish recruit ranks as the fastest of the lot according to my speed ratings. This was his first run for Sue Smith, and clearly she has improved him massively from his Irish form.

Ross Comm has now contested 11 races over fences, when you include his four point to point starts, and eight hurdles, yet he has yet to make a jumping error of any sort according to the form book - despite twice being asked to jump around in huge fields at Fairyhouse which, as his jockey pointed out, "takes some jumping". This kind of jumping ability is rare in a novice chaser and should give Ross Comm a decided edge over the inexperienced jumpers he'll continue to face for the remainder of this season.

It may seem silly to say this at such an early stage, but Ross Comm looks to have a serious chance of winning the Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on this run.

Runner-up ITALIAN COUNSEL (36) won the valuable summer hurdle at Market Rasen a year ago and showed that he's just as good over fences here. He did very well to get to within 13 lengths of a top class chaser and looks a good thing to get off the mark over fences next time.

PETER'S IMP (35) and COLLEGE CITY (34) ran remarkably fast for the grade when finishing 1-2 in a Cartmel selling hurdle. The clock indicates that both are capable of winning outside of selling class. This is a rare situation and one that is frequently profitable. Punters seem to have a big bias against horses stepping up from selling company to normal handicaps, so I'd bet on obtaining value prices against the pair next time.

Peter's Imp has won four of the last five times he's run in selling and claiming company on the flat and over hurdles. If he sticks to such races no doubt he'll be odds-on. But he'd surely be a betting proposition in a bottom rung handicap where he's not up for sale.

College City might actually offer some betting value if he sticks to selling company. But he's still only five and his connections will surely not want to risk losing him. So I imagine we'll be seeing him in a normal handicap next time. If the going is yielding or softer I'd be interested in his chances. He's won two of the three times he's encoutered a soft surface over hurdles since his jumps debut and run second the other time.