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HOW FAST IS STARCRAFT? STARCRAFT (38) is one of those horses that never seems to run a fast time yet manages to win big races. I can only guess how fast he'd run in a race with an end to end gallop. Certainly his record says he ought to be able to run a whole lot faster than he did to win the QEII. Since his maiden win Starcraft has now won nine of the eleven times he has raced over a mile or less. The two losses were perfectly excusable. The latest was on his first run for Luca Cumani off a long break. Cumani's horses always come on for their first start off a break. Even the mighty Falbrav lost for him first time out. The other loss Starcraft suffered at a short distance was in the Grade 1 Cadbury Guineas in Australia. In that race he was stone last in a ten horse field entering the straight and faced a near impossible task because the early pace had been slow. It's very hard for a horse to gain ground into an accelerating pace, yet Starcraft did. He flew the last three furlongs in an extraordinary 33.31 seconds to lose by just a neck. Stracraft has won in Group 1 company at ten and twelve furlongs. So it could be he'll do just as well if he's stepped up to a mile and a quarter for the Breeders' Cup Classic. I'm not going to say he won't act on dirt because he's proven so incredibly versatile in the past. He's won Group 1's at every distance from seven to twelve furlongs and on every sort of going from firm to soft. Dubawi (37) is another horse that has won big races yet clocked slow times. He's taken three Group 1's so far but never run quicker than he did here by my estimates. My gut feel is that he's really not that good. In addition he does seem to hoover up all the traffic problems that are going. For these reasons I'll be siding against him in the Breeders' Cup Mile.
LAND 'N STARS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE CESAREWITCH I gave LAND 'N STARS (39) a good write up here after he'd earned a Group class rating from me on his last start. So I was mortified that I neither tipped him or backed him when he won the Listed Fenwolf Stakes at 50-1 last week. To rub salt into the wound, the runner-up was another longshot Larkwing (38) that I'd also written up in this column. The Computer Straight Forecast would have netted me a life-altering sum to a relatively small stake. Land 'n Stars has now run faster than the average Cesarewitch winner the last two times he's run at Newmarket. The bookies are right to make him favourite for the big race.
TEMPSFORD CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP I confess that I just don't understand TEMPSFORD (40). He seems to alternate brilliant and appalling runs with no obvious explanation. His recent success at Carlisle falls into the brilliant category. His 12 length defeat a week later at Hamilton was pretty darned appalling. Still, Tempsford has now won seven of the fifteen times he's run a mile and a half or more. And he's run more than fast enough to take a big handicap. This being so, and seeing that he's trained by 'handicap king' Sir Mark Prescott, I wait his next few races with some eagerness. Runner-up SKI JUMP (39) pulled six lengths clear of the third. He too ran well below a week later. But in his case I think an explanation is possible. My read of Ski Jump is that he needs a break of at least 24 days or more between his races and is at his best in fields of ten or less. He's won all four times he's met what I see as his favoured combination of circumstances and would be something to bet on if given a short break and brought back in an ordinary handicap.
ETESAAL CAN STILL FULFILL POTENTIAL When he was a three year old I awarded ETESAAL (40) a Group 1 class speed rating for his half length second in the John Smith's Cup. I fully expected him to develop into a multiple Group winner. His owner Sheikh Mohammed clearly agreed because he immediately switched him to his Godolphin operation. Unfortunately he was then off for 15 months and has only now recovered his form as a five year old. Last week Etesaal won an unusually strong Listed race at Goodwood in fast time. In fact the time was so fast that I predict Etesaal is finally going to win in Group company. It could well be that Etesaal is best in small fields. After all he has now won four of the five times he's run beyond a sprint trip in fields of eleven or less. He's only won once out of eight tries in bigger fields. Jockey Frankie Dettori remarked after Etesaal's most recent success "although he raced last winter he had a quiet summer, so he's fresher than most." This suggests that the boys in blue have something else in mind for Etesaal before the end of the season. Whatever it is I'd be wary of opposing the horse off this run. Runner-up ENFORCER (39) looks interesting too. My concern is that he's one of those horses that only shows his best at tight, undulating tracks like Epsom and Goodwood. He'd won four of the five times he'd run on such tracks before this run and would have made it five out of six but for coming up against a freakishly fast rival for the class.
LITTLE BIG HORSE THE KING OF MARKET RASEN LITTLE BIG HORSE (39) ran away with the valuable Blue Square handicap chase at Market Rasen, earning a big speed rating from me in the process. He has now won four of his last five completed starts at Market Rasen but just one of his 21 runs elsewhere. It could be that Little Big Horse has improved and will be able to show the same form outside of Market Rasen. Until he does though I have to regard him as one of those peculiar one track specialists. Still, he's a fast one, so I'd take note when he runs at what seems to be his favourite track again.
GIMASHA CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER I don't like tipping British sprinters to follow because there are so many fast five and six furlong runners in Britain. Nonetheless I feel I must make a note of GIMASHA (39) who won for the fourth time in her last five starts when beating a very decent field at Lingfield. I note with interest that Gimasha has already been entered in a Listed race at Newmarket on the 29th of this month. That's the class level where she belongs according to my ratings, so if she takes in the fillies handicap on the same card I'd rate her a pretty good thing to score again.
BYGONE DAYS IS A SMART SPRINTER Jockey Tony Culhane is convinced that BYGONE DAYS (40) would have won the Ayr Gold Cup if another horse hadn't crossed him after the start. And the time that the horse ran when winning at Haydock last week suggests he may well be right. Bygone Days seems at his best on good ground or softer at six furlongs. He's won four of the six times he's run in these circumstances. If he meets them again this season I wouldn't care to oppose him. My ratings say he's a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper.
LEO PROVIDES ANOTHER BOOS FOR HORATIO NELSON The form of Horatio Nelson's races continues to work out. LEO (36) is the latest horse that chased him home to win in Group company. He did so when taking the Royal Lodge stakes in respectable time. Leo doesn't act on soft ground according to his trainer John Gosden, so you can throw out two of his losses. Gosden says he's a big, long striding horse too which is why he lost narrowly at Goodwood - a track he feels is too tight for him. Toss out the runs on soft ground and the Goodwood run and Leo's other races show two wins and that second to Horatio Nelson who I rate the top two year old. My speed ratings suggest that Leo is not the sub-par Royal Lodge winner most people seem to suppose. I wouldn't discount his chances of taking the Racing Post Trophy - unless of course Horatio Nelso turns up.
FAYR JAG IS ON THE WAY BACK BARON'S PIT (42) ran as fast as he ever has to take the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Newmarket. I'm not yet convinced that he's a short runner. So the plan to steer him towards the seven furlong Challenge Stakes looks an interesting move to me. There aren't many decent seven furlong horses around this year and Baron's Pit's second place finish in the Free Handicap to subsequent Irish Guineas winner Indian Haven indicates that he can show smart form at the trip. Runner up FAYR JAG (42) looks even more interesting. My speed ratings show that he has steadily improved throughout this season and is now peaking. If he gets the fast ground he needs he'll surely be tough to beat next time out.
VIOLETTE IS ONE OF THE TOP JUVENILE FILLIES I was impressed with the way VIOLETTE (39) won a valuable nursery at Doncaster. She showed terrific acceleration that day and looked to score with a good deal in hand. Last week at Ayr she ran even better, scoring in seriously fast time in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at Ayr. This run marks Violette out as one of the very fastest juvenile fillies. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott says Violette has strengthened up and improved since losing another Group race earlier in the season. My speed ratings say he's right and that Violette could actually win in Group 1 company.
GLASOG IS WORTH FOLLOWING I concede that the general view is that a race can't be any good if all the horses finished on top of each other at the finish. However my research shows exactly the opposite is true. The higher up the class scale one goes the less there is between individual horses. For this reason I'm not at all put off by the fact that there were heads and necks between the first five finishers in the nursery won by GLASOG (35) at Tipperary last week. The time Glasog recorded was seriously fast for a two year old and marks her out as pattern class. It may well be that the switch to soft ground brought about the improvement in Glasog. That's no problem as there's plenty of soft ground around in the Autumn. Runner-up I KEY (35) may well have been attempting the impossible in trying to concede two stone to Glasog. She looks capable of winning in pattern company.
CURTAIL CAN WIN AGAIN CURTAIL (37) showed major improvement on his first start for Ian Semple to take the Listed Roseberry Stakes at Ayr. I don't know what plans there are for the horse but surely his connections will want to strike again soon. Next year Curtail will have a much tougher time winning as he'll have to race against older horses to win again in pattern company - and that's a big ask for a three year old at the sprint trips Curtail favours. Right now Curtail is fast enough to win a Group race against horses his own age. Next year, due to the terrific strength of Britain's older sprinters, he could easily struggle in ordinary handicaps.
GRIGOROVITCH HAS IMPROVED GREATLY GRIGOROVITCH (39) ran a pattern class time to take an ordinary sprint handicap at Ayr, running closer to my standard time than the Ayr Silver Cup winner in the previous race. Clearly Grigorvitch is another example of a horse being improved by Ian Semple. If he runs again this season I'd be wary of opposing him. Runner-up JUDD STREET (38) also looks very interesting. He's placed in all his ten outings to date and is improving steadily according to my speed ratings.
WINGED CUPID NEEDS TO RUN FASTER WINGED CUPID (35) broke the two year old record for a mile when winning the Hanson and Clarke Stakes at Newbury. But that's only because two year olds don't often run the distance. He'll need to run faster if he is to have a chance in the Racing Post Trophy. It's very hard to gauge the true ability of a horse that's won two times out of two as Winged Cupid has. Right now all I can say is he ran a Group 3 time here. He could be faster but I wouldn't want to bet on it till I've seen more.
NEW SEEKER SHOULD WIN AT TIPPERARY NEW SEEKER (40) has run Group 2 class times on half a dozen occasions and did so again to take a hot Listed race at Newbury. He now goes for the Group 3 Concord Stakes at Tipperary, provided the going is fast. If it is he really ought to win. Older British horses have won half the pattern sprints they've contested in Ireland over the last dozen years. And New Seeker consistently runs faster than he'll need to at Tipperary.
COOL CREEK JUST AN AVERAGE MILL REEF WINNER COOL CREEK (37) ran a respectable time to take the Mill Reef Stakes. He was the fastest horse in the race according to my speed ratings and didn't show improvement to score narrowly. He earned a Group 2 class speed rating to take this Group 2 class race, and it looks safe to say he's a Group 2 horse. This being so I'll be siding against him if he takes up his engagement in the Dewhurst Stakes. I see him as an interesting candidate for a 2000 Guineas Trial early next season though.
FLASHY WINGS NOT LOOKING SO FLASHY NOW Flashy Wings (32) lost her unbeaten record in the Watership Down Sales race at Newbury. And it's not looking like she's simply another example of an early season speedball that has got caught out last the distance of two year old races has lengthened. She earned a huge speed rating of 39 from me when taking the Queen Mary over five furlongs. She slipped to a rating of 37 when stepped up to six furlongs. And now she's gone and run even slower here over six and a half. Given what the clock is saying I really don't like her prospects in the 1000 Guineas over a mile at all.
MAJESTIC MISSILE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE ABBAYE MAJESTIC MISSILE (41) ran a close second in a red hot Group 3 sprint at Newbury, earning another big speed rating from me. He'd run faster when scoring at Doncaster on his previous start and might well have run faster here but for having problems with his tongue tie before the race. Majestic Missile has now run three huge speed ratings in a row. This is most unusual for a sprinter. In sprints the combined effect of the draw and luck in running normally ensure that a horse can only run really fast every so often. To run fast three times in a row suggests that a horse is very smart indeed. Last time out Majestic Missile showed just how smart he can be when earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded all season. Last year's Abbaye winner ran second in this race. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see history repeat itself at Longchamp with Majestic Missile.
DIG DEEP LOOKS USEFUL DIG DEEP (37) won a minor handicap in fast time at Newbury. He lost his first start over six furlongs but has scored in both of his subsequent outings at seven. The way he finished here suggests that he could easily improve again over a mile or more. Certainly he ought to be able to win again soon seeing that he's still eligible for races well below his true class.
ECHO OF LIGHT IS SOMETHING SPECIAL I mentioned ECHO OF LIGHT (42) here after he won a minor race in exceptionally fast time. Now I have to mention him again because he simply ran away with a better race at Doncaster in a time that marks him out as a Group 1 horse. Echo Of Light cost a fortune as a yearling and was described by Raceform as a nice colt’ when he made his debut. I wrote an article a few years ago about horses earning the comments ‘nice colt’ or nice filly’ from Raceform. There are only one or two such horses a year and virtually all of them go on to prove Group class, with almost half turning out to be Group 1 performers. Last year around this time Godolphin produced another lightly-raced three year old that kept busting the clock. His name was Into The Dark who I fully expect to prove competitive in Group 1 company. Into The Dark has been brought along very slowly this season and has yet to have his first start. But he’s been working regularly and entered up, so I bet we’ll see him in some big race before year’s end. No doubt Godolphin will adopt a similarly patient policy with Echo Of Light. According to my speed ratings he’ll be well worth waiting for.
HORATIO NELSON’S BIG SPEED RATING IS FRANKED Silent Times (18) ran no sort of time to dead heat in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. The pace just wasn’t strong enough. But it takes a smart horse to win this Group 2, so I now feel assured that the huge speed rating I awarded to Silent Times’ conqueror, Horatio Nelson has been validated. Horatio Nelson buried Silent Times by four lengths into third in the Futurity Stakes last time and ranks as the joint fastest three year old of the last four seasons on my speed ratings. He Still looks very much overpriced for the 2,000 Guineas at 12-1 to me.
SCORPION NOT THAT FAST Scorpion (26) didn’t have to beat much to win a slow run renewal of the St Leger. The best speed ratings I’d awarded him in his previous starts were 38 and 39. So he has a good deal to prove as I see it before I’ll accept him as being fast enough to beat older rivals in a proper Group 1. The very fact that Coolmore were prepared to run him at such a long distance (thereby reducing his stud value) suggests to me that they share my low opinion of Scorpion.
SERRE CHEVALIER IS GROUP CLASS SERRE CHEVALIER (40) just keeps on running faster. He did so again when cruising away with a hot handicap at Goodwood. Serre Chevalier is clearly a Group racer. At this stage it’s hard top say just what level of group race he’ll prove competitive in. But I certainly would be very wary of opposing him in a Group 3 or Listed race any time soon.
SWEET STREAM WOULD HAVE MAJOR CHANCE IN MELBOURNE CUP SWEET STREAM (39) is one of the best fillies on the planet. She’s won the Prix Vermeille and finished a close third in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club behind Shirocco and Electrocutionist last season. She ran in the Park Hill Stakes last week on an exploratory mission to see if she could stay beyond a mile and a half. And she passed the test with flying colours, cruising through from the back to win cozily. It’s tough to travel a filly all the way down under at the stub end of the season. But Sweet Stream has run more than fast enough to win the Melbourne Cup. So I’m hoping that her connections decide to make the journey. She certainly showed she has the stamina for the job here.
MAJESTIC MISSILE STILL IMPROVING MAJESTIC MISSILE (43) has steadily been running faster all season and earned his biggest speed figure yet when winning most impressively at Doncaster. I awarded him a seriously good Group 1 class speed rating for the effort. Trainer Willie Haggas says that Majestic Missile needs fast ground, a fast pace and five furlongs. This being so it looks a smart plan to steer him towards the Hong Kong Sprint Cup in December. Meanwhile if he gets his ground in the Abbaye he’d be the one I’d want to be on.
NASHEEJ IS A GROUP 1 FILLY I was disappointed the ground was too firm for Short Skirt to run in the May Hill Stakes. The race looked a pretty soft spot to me. As a result I was quite prepared to go along with what seems the popular view and knock the form of eventual winner NASHEEJ (37) – until I saw the time that is. The May Hill Stakes normally produces a Group 1 class winner, and the clock says it did so again this year. In fact, according to my speed ratings Nasheej is the joint fastest juvenile filly we’ve seen so far this season at longer trips (along with Short Skirt).
IMPERIAL STRIDE COULD BE THE BEST HORSE IN TRAINING I've been whittering on about IMPERIAL STRIDE (42) ever since he earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me when winning at the Royal meeting back in June. While I was off sick he earned an even bigger rating of 44 from me when taking the Scottish Classic at Ayr. That’s a serious rating on a par with those I've awarded the best horses in recent years. And the runner-up, Powerscourt, certainly franked the form by taking the Arlington Million so impressively next time out. Last Saturday Imperial Stride earned yet another Group 1 class speed rating from me. He didn't have to run quite as fast as he had at Ayr to score. But the manner of his success was simply breathtaking. With less than two furlongs to go he and runner up Mamool were still level with the rest of the field. By the finish line their rivals were mere dots on the horizon and there was clearly more to come from Imperial Stride who won a bit cozily. I'm now inclined to think that Imperial Stride could beat just about any horse at 10-12 furlongs. He looked very impressive here. If he were mine I'd be inclined to go for the Breeders' Cup Turf with Imperial Stride. The acceleration he showed here and when winning off a much slower early pace by 17 lengths a couple of runs back indicates that he has the finishing kick required to win on turf in the states. Runner-up MAMOOL (41) was most unlucky to lose last time out. And he was again unlucky in that he encountered a world class opponent here. The way that he kept going to pull so far clear of the third suggests to me that this Group 1 winner is still capable of scoring again at the top level. If he contests a Group 2 or Group 3 race next time out as seems likely from his connections' post-race comments I would not oppose him.
MULLINS BAY STILL ON A ROLL MULLINS BAY (38) continues to make his conqueror Imperial Stride look good. And he did so again when taking the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York. I like the way Mullins Bay is being handled. He’s not being overfaced as so many improving and unexposed horses so often are. He earned a borderline Group 1 class speed rating from me when chasing home Imperial Stride a few runs back but has been kept to races he can win without running as fast since. I reckon his entry in the Champion Stakes is by no means an optimistic one - as long as he doesn’t come up against Imperial Stride again of course. Runner-up ANDEAN (38) is also entered in future Group 1 races. His connections expressed disappointment at his loss. But he was only just bested by a very smart horse and this was the first time Andean had ever gotten competitive in a really fast contest. It was odd to see MARAAHEL (35) running in this race. It involved him being rushed back to the races only two weeks after his huge effort in the Juddmonte, cutting back to the shortest trip he’d tried since his two year old days and dropping in class to a Group 3. I rather suspect that Maraahel is best when fresh and expect him to bounce back to form if he’s given a break of five weeks plus. He certainly should offer some serious betting value following this defeat. He’s a proper Group 1 horse but I think many will now see his big Juddmonte run as a one-off.
WAHOO SAM WORTH SHOUTING ABOUT WAHOO SAM (38) is a horse that hasn’t appeared on my radar before. But he certainly registered when he won at Ripon in pattern class time. He really does seem to have improved - either for the step up to ten furlongs or the switch to a new trainer. Whatever the reason, Wahoo Sam is seriously under-rated on official handicap ratings according to my speed figures. If he can be found another race on fast ground he ought to win again. Otherwise he’s certainly something to look forward to for the AW during the Winter. He’s proven on the sand and is far better than most horses that run on the surface.
JOHNSTON’S DIAMOND SHOULD WIN AGAIN I dare say a lot of people will be betting that the recent success of JOHNSTON’S DIAMOND (38) at Haydock won’t be repeated. But my speed ratings suggest it was a much improved effort that puts him well ahead of the class of race he’s eligible for. In addition, his trainer, Eric Alston, provided a solid explanation for the improvement when saying it was the yielding ground which he hasn’t encountered in a while. With yielding and softer ground the norm in the Autumn I can see Johnston’s Diamond winning again.
WHISPERED SECRET IS A SMART NOVICE CHASER WHISPERED SECRET (36) was a Group racer on the flat in Germany and it looks like he’s going to prove pattern class over fences judged on his latest win. This was a 14 length runaway success at Newton Abbot which followed close on the heels of a similar wide margin win at Southwell. It’s early days yet, but I wonder if we’re going to see a repeat of last Summer, when an unusual number of fast novice chasers appeared. If so we can look forward to getting some real value when the jumps season proper starts in November. Most punters will be betting that the Summer jumpers will be outclassed when the big stables start rolling. They could well be wrong for the second year running when it comes to the novice chasers.
SIERRA VISTA BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER I’ve mentioned before that top class sprinters are a dime a dozen in Britain. Indeed there are so many that there is basically no difference between the top sprint handicappers and the best Group sprinters. SIERRA VISTA (41) proved this when taking a hot sprint handicap at Haydock in a time that would win many Group 2 races according to my ratings. Sierra Vista just keeps on improving, so it’s hard to tell exactly what circumstances suit her best. She has won the last three times she’s tackled an easy five furlongs though, and I suspect that’s what she prefers. Her connections apparently want to try and get some black type for her before she goes into the December sales. My ratings say they ought to be granted their wish.
MUTAMARED SHOULD WIN SOMETHING BIG MUTAMARED (40) ran much faster than he ever has before to take a blisteringly fast sprint handicap at Newmarket. There are many possible reasons for his improvement. He’s changed stables, been gelded and was running for the first time over a trip as short as six furlongs. Whatever the reason, Mutamared is now very much under-rated by official handicap ratings. This can be a curse as well as a blessing for according to his trainer it means he probably won’t make the cut for the Ayr Gold Cup. He’ll have to go for the Silver Cup instead. Given a good draw he should be a tough horse to beat there.
GOODRICKE IMPRESSES Just before the William Hill Sprint Cup the BBC aired a little feature on David Loder’s upcoming retirement and his candidate for the big race GOODRICKE (42). The commentators had noted previously that their was opposition in the market to Goodricke on the basis that he probably preferred more cut in the ground. But watching the horse in the featurette it was clear Goodricke is a really good-moving horse whose stride shows very little knee action at all. In other words he gallops like a horse that should actually prefer fast ground. He certainly had no problems with the going in the race itself as he won rather impressively. I got the impression that Goodricke could have run a bit faster if pressed. So I’m not going to knock him because several sprinters have earned speed ratings as big or bigger from me this term. I see him as a very interesting prospect. In fact, since running second on his debut he has now won five of the six subsequent times he’s run five or six furlongs. On pedigree Goodricke might well make a successful transition to dirt, so the idea of him going for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint might not seem bad. The trouble is he is a horse that starts his races rather tardily and only really gets going from halfway. This can be a major problem in America where the horses are all trained to break lightning fast. Then again if a furious pace develops at Belmont (which is perfectly possible) I can easily see Goodricke flying late and maybe even getting up.
STRAWBERRY DALE CAN FOLLOW UP STRAWBERRY DALE (36) showed some useful form at two but, according to her trainer, had taken some time to come to hand this year. However, at Thirsk she showed all her old ability to take a mile handicap in very good time for the class. My ratings indicate that Strawberry Dale can win in better company than she met here, so I fully expect her to follow up this win. I’d bet on runner-up ADHAAF (36) franking the form too.
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