GEORGE WASHINGTON IS AS GOOD AS THEY SAY

I've been knocking GEORGE WASHINGTON (43) for ages, basically because he's failed to run a fast time. I can't do that any more because he's just gone and run sensationally fast to win the QEII.

Okay he looks ugly when he's racing with that funny stride and his head up in the air. But the clock doesn't lie. He's the fastest horse in Europe at a mile.

Race times indicate that the going was actually on the fast side of good at Ascot rather than the official good to soft. This almost certainly helped George Washington as it now looks highly likely that he failed to handle the heavy ground in the Irish Guineas. It also seems clear that jockey Mick Kinane was right in saying this galloping track would suit him far better than the tight turns of Goodwood. He's clearly rather a difficult horse for a jockey to organize and a galloping track makes the task easier.

On a galloping track, on good or faster ground, I'd now regard George Washington as almost unbeatable, except perhaps in a big field, where he might get himself into traffic problems due to his lack of maneuverability.

Hopefully George Washington's connections will resist the temptation to run him in the Breeders' Cup Mile. I say this because if he didn't like Goodwood he's hardly likely to be suited to the seven furlong turf oval of Churchill Downs with its homestraight of less than two furlongs – plus the likely big field. Indeed, from a commercial point of view, the logical thing to do now would be to retire him. He's proven doubters like myself wrong and has nothing to gain (in value at least) by tackling the American race.

Runner-up ARAAFA (42) is also in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and I suspect he may well be suited to the race much better than George Washington. I say this because I now have a theory that Araafa

is one of those horses that pulls hard when he sees too much daylight. The very strong early pace prevented that happening here. But remember how he pulled hard in the Guineas run on the wide open spaces of Newmarket. It could well be that this explains why he's now won three of his other four starts in big fields but lost every time he's run in a race with less than eleven runners. Araafa will certainly not have a problem finding cover in the Breeders' Cup Mile. And if he can extricate himself from all the traffic in that race I'd say he's got a great chance of winning.

ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET SHOULD GO FOR THE RACING POST TROPHY

ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a two year old this season (or last come to that) at a mile when taking the Royal Lodge Stakes. So I was surprised to read afterwards that he might well be put away for the season.

As I see it, Admiralofthefleet has the Racing Post trophy at his mercy and really should go for that contest. He's a proper Group 1 horse.

For the statistically minded, Admiralofthefleet has looked like a Group 1 horse for some time. First of all because he won a seven furlong maiden in July.

TRAFFIC GUARD DESERVES A SHOT AT THE DEWHURST

TRAFFIC GUARD (37) won a Novice Plate at Newmarket in a time that earned him a Group 1 class speed rating from me. He's bred to stay longer than the six furlongs of this race, so I wouldn't dismiss his chances of winning the Dewhurst Stakes lightly. Actually, if he were mine, the race I'd be aiming him for would be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile because he's bred to handle dirt. If he went well in that race or in one of the preps for it I guarantee the owners could sell him on for a fortune to a US buyer as they'll pay almost anything for a horse that has the slightest prospect of developing into a Kentucky Derby candidate. Alternatively he'd be a good horse to take over to the UAE for the Dubai Carnival early next year where he'd have a good chance in the UAE Guineas and Derby.

Richard Hannon junior, the assistant trainer of the runner up RESIGNATION (37) said five runs ago that the horse would be suited by a step up to six furlongs. And so it proved as Resignation ran much his best race ever. It's a pity he isn't in the Middle Park Stakes. However there are a couple of six furlong Listed races for him next month. And then there's the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte which is where I'd be aiming him in November.

WAGTAIL ON E OF THE TOP 3YO FILLIES

WAGTAIL (39) clocked a time only four fifths of a second slower than the QEII when scoring over the same course and distance later on the card. It now seems probable that she dislikes the slow Polytrack surface at Kempton and doesn't stay ten furlongs. She's now won four of the five times she's run on other courses at shorter trips and ranks as one of the top 3YO fillies on my speed ratings. Wagtail is capable of winning in much better company than this.

GRAIN OF TRUTH (38) earned a Group class speed rating for the second time this season to chase the smart winner home. She'd be a pretty good thing to take an ordinary Listed contest.

MAMELA (37) has improved with every one of her UK starts and came close to the smart form she showed in Italy, Germany and France to take third. She's already won a Group 3 and can do so again on this showing.

MUNADDAM IS A SMART SPRINTER

MUNADDAM (39) broke Folkestone's six furlong course record when beating a strong field to take an unusually strong class 3 handicap. It looks clear from his form that he's best at this distance and requires fast ground. His only good run at seven furlongs came on a downhill course.

Munaddam only got beat a couple of lengths in the Stewards' Cup despite being slowly away and denied a clear run. He's probably going to win a big sprint handicap like that or a Group race at sometime within the next year. In lesser contests like this I wouldn't oppose him over six furlongs on fast ground.

DINAE'S CHOICE (38) would have been winning for the fourth time in her last five starts if she hadn't bumped into a Group class rival in the winner. She seems remarkably versatile as to distance and surface, so she should be easy to place to win again soon.

GREEK RENAISSANCE COULD BE ANYTHING

GREEK RENAISSANCE (39) put up a Group class time when winning a Goodwood sprint handicap by five lengths. This was the first time he'd encountered good or faster ground in a sprint on turf. He appeared full of running at the finish so he really could be anything. Certainly he should be capable of winning a big sprint handicap and it's perfectly possible he could prove competitive in the top sprints next year.

BALANCED BUDGET LOOKS AN EBOR CANDIDATE

BALANCED BUDGET (38) won a strongly run twelve furlong handicap on Kempton's Polytrack in a time that suggests he'll be successful in big handicaps and pattern company before long. He clearly appreciated the step up to a mile and a half and looks likely to stay further, just like his dam did.

I don't know why Balanced Budget ran below form the previous time he ran this far at Royal Ascot. But he'd won the only other time he had a serious test of stamina when breaking his maiden over the very stiff ten furlongs at Pontefract. Long term I'd bet on Balanced Budget developing into an Ebor candidate for next season. Right now he looks like a horse to follow if he runs again soon.

It looks like Balanced Budget doesn't like soft ground as he's run below form both times he's encountered it. But that was over shorter trips, so I wouldn't want to be too dogmatic about his going preferences just yet.

ROYAL JET (37) is vulnerable on turf because he lacks acceleration. But this slow Polytrack surface seems to help him as he's now run second to smart horses both times he's tried it. Whether or not he'll do equally well on the much faster Polytrack surfaces at Lingfield and Wolverhampton remains to be seen. If he returns to Kempton soon though I'd be wary of opposing him in a similar race.

AL QASI LOOKS A CONTENDER FOR THE TOP SPRINTS

AL QASI (40) confirmed that he's one of the fastest three year old sprinters in Europe by taking a red hot Ascot handicap in a time that earned him a Group 2 class speed rating from me. If he hadn't dwelt in one race where he lost by a short head he'd now be unbeaten in five starts at sprint distances.

So far Al Qasi has shown remarkable versatility. He's won around a turn and up the straight and on Polytrack, firm and soft turf. This is invariably a sign that a horse is racing well below its true class. So I'd bet on some clear preferences emerging when Al Qasi steps up to Group class and can no longer win by simply outclassing his rivals even when conditions aren't favourable to him.

ACTS OF GRACE CONFIRMS HER CLASS

I noted that ACTS OF GRACE (39) looked a good thing for the Princess Royal Stakes after she'd won a French race in what I rated Group 1 class time for a three year old filly. And so it proved as Acts Of Grace again ran very fast to take the race.

Afterwards trainer John Dunlop said that Acts Of grace had improved physically in the last couple of months. So it may well be that she doesn't need a mile and a half to run to this sort of form. This being so next month's Group 1 Premio Lydia Tesio in Italy looks a logical target as it's often run on the soft ground that Acts Of grace seems to thrive on.

GOWER SONG (38) showed improvement to pull clear of the rest in second place and I confess I'm not sure why. It seems most likely that, like the winner, she has simply matured and become faster as a result. In any even, if she runs again this season I'd be wary of opposing her in Group 3 or Listed company.

THE JOBBER IS IMPROVING

Sprinters tend to peak at five years of age according to some research I carried out a few years ago. THE JOBBER (40) certainly has. He's won the last three times he's had the fast ground his trainer says he now needs and broke Leicester's course record in his latest success.

It's hard to say for sure, but, looking at his record, I rather suspect that The Jobber prefers smaller fields or races where he's drawn away from the other runners in the middle of the course. This suggests that his future lies in Group races rather than big handicaps as the former attract smaller fields on average. I would actually have been interested in his chances if he'd been entered in the Prix Abbaye. In any event, given his ground The Jobber is surely going to prove a tough opponent in any race below Group class in the near future.

LIGHT SHIFT IS A NAME TO REMEMBER

LIGHT SHIFT (34) won a Newmarket maiden in unusually fast time for a two year old race over a mile. She's bred to stay longer and will act on softer ground according to her trainer, Henry Cecil. This being so, she looks like a solid candidate for one of the many Oaks Trials to be run next Spring. Similar comments apply to SUNLIGHT (33) who ran a big race on her racecourse debut to finish a close second.

FIUMICINO CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

You don't see many juvenile fillies run a pattern class time over a mile. But that's what FIUMICINO (33) did when taking a nursery over the very stiff Pontefract mile last week.

Long term I see Fiumiciono as a candidate for Oaks Trials next Spring. Right now she looks to be remarkably well handicapped so I'd bet on her winning another nursery. After that, if she were mine, I'd be taking a look at Newmarket's Zetland Stakes.

The second and third, FONGS GAZELLE (33) and DOUBLY GUEST (32) pulled clear of the rest and look likely to frank the form of the race by winning in the near future.

KNOWHERE IS GOING PLACES

KNOWHERE (36) blasted home by a big margin in a Perth novice chase in pattern class time. He'd previously won his sole point to point start by six lengths and both his completed hurdles outings, including a Grade 2. It seems a bit early in the season to be saying this but it looks like Knowhere is a decent candidate for the top novice chases.

BLUE MONDAY IMPROVES OVER LONGER TRIP

BLUE MONDAY (41) has a history of getting into traffic problems and then finishing strongly. Such horses quite often benefit from a step up in trip as the pace slows down giving them more time to maneuver. This seemed to be borne out by Blue Monday's very smart win in the Arc Trial at Newbury where he encountered no traffic problems at all and earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given him.

The Arc Trial was a remarkably strong race for a Group 3. Six of the runners had previously won or placed in Group 1 company or earned speed ratings which suggested they could. If Blue Monday can reproduce this run in the Canadian International he'll be the one to beat. And why shouldn't he? The race is run at Woodbine which is a big flat galloping course with a four and a half furlong homestraight just like Newbury.

TAM LIN (40) again ran close to a Group 1 time by finishing a close second. His tail went round like a helicopter as usual in the closing stages, but this doesn't seem to be anything more than a quirk which has little impact on his running.

Tam Lin is in fact the only runner in the Arc Trial to hold an Arc entry. My ratings say he's good enough to be worth running in the big race. But his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, tends to bring his best horses along slowly and not step them up to Group 1 company till they're four. So I imagine we won't be seeing Tam Lin tackling anything big till next year. Indeed I suspect that's his lot for the season.

The fact that Tam Lin was once more run on a track with a very long homestraight suggests to me that Stoute shares my belief that his sole sub-par run at Ascot was caused by that tracks short homestraight. This makes sense because Tam Lin does seem to take an awful long time to get rolling. In any event, wherever he goes next, whether it's this season or 2007, I'd think long and hard about opposing Tam Lin in future. I see him as a likely Group 1 winner.

BAUER IS VERY SMART

BAUER (39) gets my vote as the best handicapped horse in training following his recent win at Newbury. He took a class 4 handicap easing up in Group class time.

Bauer would probably be unbeaten in six starts over ten furlongs or more if his saddle hadn’t slipped a couple of runs back and he hadn't encountered ground that may well have been too soft for him on another occasion.

The problem for Bauer's connections is that the flat season is now drawing to a close. And the big middle distance handicaps don't really start again till the Summer next year. So if they don't wrap him up in cotton wool for the next eight or nine months he's going to blow his current very lenient handicap mark.

Personally, if he were mine, I'd just shoot for the November handicap and then step Bauer up to Group company. But however he's campaigned in future he should be well worth following.

Runner-up BEAU NASH (38) was most unfortunate to come up against Group class opposition in a minor handicap for the second time in a row. He'll be tough to beat in the near future.

SLEEPING INDIAN THE ONE TO BEAT IN FORET

SLEEPING INDIAN (39) is one of those horses that only ever does enough to win. So I'm not concerned that he only won his comeback race at Newbury narrowly. He's earned ratings as high as 42 from me in the past and is a seriously good horse. He doesn't quite seem to get the mile in Group 1 company but is one of the best horses in Europe at seven furlongs. This being so, and seeing that he's still a fresh horse, I'd say he's the one they all have to beat in the Prix de la Foret.

PICTAVIA KEEPS ON WINNING AT TEN FURLONGS

PICATIVA (39) won for the third time this season at ten furlongs when taking a decent Listed race at Goodwood. This is clearly her best distance, and against her own sex, she rates as a Group 1 filly over the trip.

CROSSPEACE (39) ran another big race on what seems to be his favourite track. It now seems clear that he's best on tight courses.

ROAD TO LOVE (39) finished a close third and again ran a proper Group class time. He edged right a few runs back and it's hard to escape the conclusion that he's at his best on right-handed courses. He's now lost all eight times he's run on left-handed or straight courses but has won four times out of five going right-handed at ten furlongs or less.

DIXIE BELLE RAN A GROUP 1 TIME

DIXIE BELLE (42) beat a seriously good field in very fast time to take a Group 3 sprint at Newbury. In fact my ratings indicate she ran a Group 1 time. Previously she's apparently had problems at the start. But this time jockey Queally kept a hood on her head till the last second which probably explains why for once she flew out of the stalls and was never headed.

Dixie Belle ran a fast time last year at Newmarket as well, so this was no one-off performance. I expect Dixie Belle will be able to replicate it whenever she encounters fast ground a field that's small enough for her to dominate from the front.

STAY FRIENDS WITH ESPRIT DE CORPS

Nobody has a better record with horses having their first handicap run that Sir Mark Prescott. So it wasn't a huge surprise that ESPRIT DE CORPS (37) showed improvement to score on his handicap bow at Redcar. What was surprising was just how fast he ran. He actually broke the course record for a mile and three quarters and ran what I rate a Listed class time. He should be able to win several more races on this showing given his very lenient official mark.

SA NAY (37) pulled clear of the rest to run Esprit De Corps close. He too looks significantly under-rated on official figures and should be able to win again soon.

IFFRAAJ IS SPECIAL

IFRAAJ (43) won the GNER Park Stakes at York in remarkably fast time. This is the third occasion that he has earned a big international class speed rating from me. The Godolphin stable may have had a quiet year in Europe but the Maktoum family have been winning everything in sight in America and look to have a serious chance of adding to their haul with this one in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Runner-up SOMNUS (42) ran right up to his best and must have a good chance of winning the Prix Foret for a second time next month.

WASSEEMA (42) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old filly all season to take second. She's run almost as fast before according to my ratings and now looks the one they all have to beat in the Sun Chariot Stakes.

WI DUD LOOKING GOOD FOR THE MIDDLE PARK

WI DUD (41) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a two year old in years to take the Flying Childers Stakes. But the race is only a five furlong affair, and I can recall giving very big numbers before to two year olds over the minimum distance (Superstar Leo leaps to mind). I doubt that Wi Dud can run this fast over longer. However he does seem to stay six furlongs, so he looks the one to beat in the Middle Park.

BAHAMA MAMA (39) ran a big race to finish second and deserves a shot at Group 1 company in the Cheveley Park.

HOH MIKE (38) ran right up to his best in third, confirming that five furlongs is his distance.

SILVER TOUCH IS VERY SMART

SILVER TOUCH (41) ran remarkably fast to take a seven furlong Listed race at York. This run marks her out as one of the very best three year old fillies on my ratings. I note with interest that she is in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. She deserves a shot at that level on this run.

SANCHI IS VERY SMART

SANCHI (39) won what was probably the best middle distance race ever run at Southwell in seriously fast time. The Godolphin four year old has now won both times he's run beyond a mile on fast ground and is good enough to win a decent Group race on this showing.

Runner-up ST SAVARIN (38) has improved massively since stepped up to longer trips and was most unlucky to come up against such a smart horse at a minor track. He looks a decent proposition for something like the November Handicap. Meanwhile he'll surely win again soon.

DESERT AUTHORITY IS GROUP CLASS

Godolphin move heaven and earth to lay their hands on the best middle distance performers and when they run one in a Conditions race rather than a Group race it pays to sit up and take notice. Their horses have won no less than fifteen of the last seventeen 10-12 furlong Conditions races that they've contested. Their latest success came in a Conditions race at Southwell where DESERT AUTHORITY (39) beat another Godolphin runner BLUE KSAR (39) into second.

Desert Authority ran a Group class time here and is still unbeaten after two starts. He should be winning something better soon as should Blu Ksar.

DARK ISLANDER IS IMPROVING

DARK ISLANDER (38) ran a Group class time to take a mile handicap at Bath. He'd beaten the smart Dunelight previously and is clearly improving. I wouldn't dismiss his chances in the Cambridgeshire if he gets the fast ground he needs.

LEGER WAS SLOW

Sixties Icon (29) earned rave reviews for his Leger win. But he didn't run fast. In fact he's yet to earn a decent speed rating from me. The horse that chased him home was 50-1 shot The Last Drop who had run unplaced in his last three starts. As I see it, this was a pretty moderate performance by the winner. I really don't think it's worth supplementing him for the Arc

AEROPLANE IS A PROPER GROUP HORSE

Peter Chapple-Hyam looks to have found himself a good standard-bearer for his stable in AEROPLANE (39). The colt won a good Conditions race in a time that marks the three year old out as a live contender for the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket next month. If he runs before then I'd be wary of opposing him.

GIMASHA A MAJOR FORCE ON MINOR TRACKS

GIMASHA (40) won a Lingfield class 2 contest in a time that would win pretty much any big sprint handicap and most Group races. But, as I see it, she's going to be rather hard to place to win races like that. The reason I say this is that Gimasha a very nervous filly according to her trainer. And she does best when led down to the start. This may well explain a rather obvious pattern that has developed in her form.

Gimasha has now lost all eight times she has run at major tracks but won the last five times she's run at courses ranked as Grade 2 or lower under the Jockey Club's old classification system. The logical conclusion would seem to be that she boils over before big raceday crowds and performs best when there aren't many people around to make her nervous.

If she were mine I'd be focusing on Group sprints in France with Gimasha as racecourse attendance is lower across the Channel outside of the really big meetings. If she sticks to British races she's going to have a hard time winning anything decent because a big crowd will show up and put her off her game.

Runner-up OBE BRAVE (40) doesn't seem to have such hangups. Just give him fast ground and six furlongs and he'll always run a big race. So far he's run four times in these circumstances for two wins and two short head losses. He's capable of winning a big sprint handicap or Group race if he gets his ground.

AL QASI IS A SMART SPRINTER

AL QASI (40) bolted home in a class 4 handicap at Ripon in a time that would win most Group races. But for a single photo finish defeat he'd now be unbeaten in four sprint starts. It could be he needs soft ground like he encountered here to produce his best. He's certainly a horse I'd be wary of opposing right now.

ST SAVARIN HAS IMPROVED

ST SAVARIN (37) won a minor handicap at Haydock in a time that suggests he is very well handicapped. He's improved markedly since stepped up to trips beyond ten furlongs and should be capable of winning again soon.

Runner-up JUNIPER GIRL (36) was thought good enough to be left in the Park Hill Stakes at the five day stage. And she justified her connection's high opinion of her by pulling ten lengths clear of the third while running the useful winner to a length. She will surely win soon.

NEVADA DESERT IS A USEFUL MILER ON SOFT GROUND

NEVADA DESERT (37) seems to love mud and showed it when running away with a mile handicap at Ripon. He's now won three of the four times he's run on what I rate genuinely soft ground at a mile. I'd be wary of opposing him the next time he encounters this sort of surface

CROSSBOW CREEK JUST AS GOOD ON THE FLAT

It's not often that you see a smart jumper switch to the flat at eight years of age. But CROSSBOW CREEK (37) did so to win a Lingfield Maiden in remarkably fast time. Clearly he's just as smart on the flat and is going to be hard to beat in handicaps.

Falbrav's half brother FALPIASE (34) was unlucky to come up against such a useful horse in a maiden this late in the year. He should be winning soon.

STOTSFOLD IS WORTH FOLLOWING

STOSFOLD (38) won a minor handicap on Kempton's Polytrack in a time that endorses the high opinion of the horse held by his connections. He's now won all three times he's run on fast ground at middle distances and looks likely to win much better races.

RIO RIVA DOES IT AGAIN

RIO RIVA (39) has earned Group class speed ratings from me on several occasions and did so again when winning a hot mile handicap at Ripon.

DOES ACROBATIC NEED POLYTRACK?

ACROBATIC (37) won an eleven furlong handicap on Kempton's Polytrack in a time fast enough to make him look an interesting prospect for the Cambridgeshire. But I want to see him run as well elsewhere first. So far he's unbeaten in three tries on Polytrack (all at Kempton) and scored just once in six starts on turf.

It's noticeable that since Kempton's new Polytrack started being used we've seen quite a few horses that seem to reserve their best form for the unusually slow surface and tight turns that are the feature of the course. It could well be that Acrobatic is one of them.

DIANE'S CHOICE IS SMART AT FIVE FURLONGS

DIANE'S CHOICE (38) won a five furlong handicap at Leicester in fast time for a three year old filly. She's now won all three times she's raced on good or faster ground at the minimum trip and is clearly pretty useful in these circumstances.

CHAMPIONS GALLERY SHOULD DO WELL IN HONG KONG

CHAMPIONS GALLERY (37) won a valuable ten furlong handicap at Beverley in a time that suggests he's going to do very well in his new home of Hong Kong. I just wish they would stop the outdated practice of re-naming imported horses in the former British colony as this is going to make following him his new home very difficult.