HUGE RUNS BY RAVEN'S PASS AND HENRYTHENAVIGATOR

When four pattern races are run over the same course and distance and one of the winners clocks a time 1.7 second faster than the others it's obvious that winner is awfully fast. That is undoubtedly the case with RAVEN'S PASS (44) and HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (43) who earned the biggest speed ratings I've awarded three year olds beyond a sprint trip in years when fighting out the finish of the QEII at Ascot.

You could argue that if Raven's Pass had been ridden more prominently as he was here and hadn't encountered a slow surface a couple of times he'd have won all eleven of his starts. All I can say for sure is that he has improved steadily all season, earning ratings of 39, 41, 42 and now 44 from me. To my eye he looks to have strengthened up and matured through the year which is why he's improved, something confirmed by trainer John Gosden

Raven's Pass now ranks as one of the best milers ever on my speed ratings and is clearly a very special horse. If I had to find one thing to knock him on it is the fact that he is a very smooth moving horse who seems to be balanced on a knife edge. You can't make sudden sideways movements with him without risk. It's very easy for him to come off a straight line as he did here briefly at one point. This being so I can see how he might just get into trouble in a big field in the Breeders' Cup Mile. I guess it's all going to depend on his draw. If he gets hung out wide he might not be able to get into a prominent position early. He'd probably have to come with his run right down the outside of the track to avoid having to bob and weave in between his rivals. Seeing how fast he ran here, he'd probably win anyway though.

What was particularly impressive about the performance of both Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator here was that they came off a much stronger early pace than any of the other three mile races on the card but still managed to clock a faster time for the last quarter mile. The pair spurted away from the high class TAMAYUZ (36) as they engaged in a long duel to the line.

Raven's Pass was actually edging away slowly from Henrythenavigator all the way to the line. Given how strongly both were finishing off a fast pace I can see the temptation to run him in the Breeders' Cup Classic over ten furlongs rather than sticking to the mile. But neither his sire or dam won beyond a mile. And he has shown such speed that Gosden floated the idea of cutting him back to six furlongs for the July Cup earlier this year. It's a huge thing to ask of a horse to jump up to ten furlongs for the first time and switch surfaces in the world's second biggest race. So I think it's best to stick with plan A, pray for an inside draw, and go for the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Henrythenavigator on the other hand has long looked to me as though he'd benefit from a step up to a mile and a quarter. Nothing he did here disabused me of that notion. He kept on really strongly all the way up the straight.

As I see it Henrythenavigator would have a huge chance of beating Curlin and Big Brown in the Breeders' Cup Classic. I think that Big Brown's trainer is right to say that the new Pro-Ride surface favours turf horses over dirt runners. This is why he gave Big Brown his prep race on turf. I also think that Big Brown is over-rated and that Curlin will be nothing like as good on Pro-Ride seeing how far below form he ran when he tried turf. For me, the real dangers to Henrythenavigator in the Classic are other European runners, and he's run faster than any of them that are likely to turn up according to my speed ratings.

Exaggerated hold up tactics enabled SABANA PERDIDA (38) to last the mile and pick up late to finish a fairly distant third. But my speed ratings back up what seems to be her trainer's opinion in suggesting that she's better over seven furlongs. I suspect she won't have recovered from this well enough to produce her best in the Prix Foret. But if she's going to gain a Group 1 win before she retires that would be the race to do it in. So I imagine her connections will be keen to run her right back next week.

Tamayuz may well have stuck just a little too close to the blazingly fast gallop set by the dueling pacemakers, both of whom tired badly to get beat over forty lengths. I do hope he stays in training next year because my feeling from looking at his physique and pedigree is that he could well stay ten furlongs.

WINKER WATSON (28) once more failed to stay the mile. It did look like six furlongs was a bit on the short side for him in the one sprint he ran in this season. So it's surely a logical move to take up his entry in the Prix Foret next week over seven furlongs. He'd be an interesting contender there and might just take it.

JUKEBOX JURY SHOULDN'T GIVE BREEDERS' CUP A MISS

JUKEBOX JURY (36) impressed me with the professional way he raced to run down CITYSCAPE (35) and take the Royal Lodge Stakes. Being switched for a run didn't phase him at all. He picked up strongly and always looked likely to catch the runner up.

Jokebox Jury came with a storming run from far back to win on his racecourse debut at Goodwood. It was impressive that he sustained his run for so long in that race despite meeting traffic, having to be angled right to the outside of a huge field, running green and carrying his head high.

Next time out in a good Listed race at Deauville, Jukebox Jury again ran green, and this found him out in a race run on a straight course. With a couple of furlongs to run he was half a length off the leader and in with a real chance. But they were racing in the centre of the course. And, as is often the case with inexperienced horses, he saw the rail and made a bee line for it, drifting eight or ten horse widths away from contact with his rivals as well as losing ground. By the time he'd got to the rail he was totally unfocused on racing and had lost his chance of winning. So his jockey wasn't hard on him.

After that Jukebox Jury was run around a turn as he had been on his debut. And once more he ran a very good race. The early pace unfortunately was not strong. And that gave this strong middle distance sort problems when it turned into a sprint finish. He kept on really strongly despite being boxed in and, watching the video of the race, I'm pretty sure he'd have won the race nicely instead of losing narrowly if the distance had been a mile rather than 40 yards short of seven furlongs.

I like the idea of Jukebox Jury going for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. I see him round the tight turns and in the crowded field he'll face there. I don't know whether he'll always be in danger of goofing off on straight courses. But he does seem unusually adept at dealing with the traffic to be found in races run around a turn.

My feeling is that Jukebox Jury will turn out to be a ten furlong Group 2 horse, but that should be more than good enough to take the big American race.

Cityscape is a great big, long striding sort that couldn't quite contain the winner's late surge. A mile is obviously on the short side for him. Next year he could well be very smart at twelve furlongs.

ON OUR WAY (32) is even bigger than Cityscape and has always looked in need of longer trips. He moved strongly but just didn't have the pace to go with the first two. I can see him winning a Derby trial next year on softer ground. Right now he's not running fast enough to do that, but given his physique he'll surely improve massively over longer trips.

RAINBOW VIEW A GOOD THING FOR BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE

RAINBOW VIEW (35) duly won the Fillies' Mile, showing the turn of foot that had enabled he to win her three previous starts impressively. She actually came home just a fifth of a second slower over the last quarter mile than Raven's Pass did in the big race.

Rainbow View has run a bit faster than she did here and no doubt could have done so had she been more strongly pressed.

It's a smart idea to run Rainbow View in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. When I convert my speed ratings to the American Beyer scale they show that she's run faster on every one of her four starts than any American juvenile filly has in any of theirs this term. In addition she's by a dirt sire out of a dam that's produced two dirt winners from her three other foals. So even if Santa Anita's new Pro-Ride surface turns out not to favour turf horses (which it seems likely to) Rainbow View is bred to act on dirt too. So she should adapt to it. In fact, at this stage she looks rather a good thing for the big US race.

Rainbow View is a compact, nippy well balanced sort with a very good turn of foot. This makes me suspect that she's going to prove best around a turn where her maneuverability and change of gear will be very useful. I'm not at all convinced she'll be best suited by the one mile dash up the straight in the Guineas.

Runner Up FANTASIA (33) is a very different sort. She was totally swamped for speed by the winner in the closing stages. She's a tall, strong, middle distance sort, so I don't see her as a Guineas prospect either. It could be that she'll prove best at ten furlongs given her pedigree, but the way she ran makes me believe she may just get the mile and a half. If she were mine I'd be running her in the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud this year. Next year I'd incline towards the Italian, French or German Oaks as they are slightly short of a mile and a half. She has yet to run a seriously good Group class time, but I bet she will over longer.

ROARING FORTE SHOULD GO TO AMERICA

Who says you can't set as strong pace and win on Polytrack? Nobody would after seeing the way ROARING FORTE (40) powered home to win a good class 2 handicap by six lengths at Great Leighs.

This big, good-bodied, classy looking sort set a scorching gallop which had all his rivals in serious trouble with three furlongs to run. He came a little wide off the home turn which allowed his rivals to get to within three lengths again. But once he straightened up he surged clear again to open up impressively in the final furlong.

On a card which featured several Breeders' Cup preps and lots of smart runners, Roaring Forte clocked the fastest time of the night to break the course record. He'd broken the course record when winning his only other previous start on Polytrack as well and is clearly very smart on the surface.

This was a Group 2 class performance on the clock. And I'm sure Roaring Forte could win at that level on Polytrack or a similar synthetic surface. He might even prove capable of taking a Group 1. The trouble is, even though Polytrack races account for about 40% of those run in Britain nowadays, there are very few opportunities indeed for a horse to win in Group company on the surface. Logically therefore it's hard to see Roaring Forte remaining in Britain when there are so many big prizes he could be taking on the surface he clearly prefers in America. Meanwhile though you won't find me opposing him on it in Britain.

CECIL HAS A CLASSIC PROSPECT IN WINGWALKER

WINGWALKER (35) was rather impressive when clocking a time between Listed and Group 3 class to take a Novice Stakes over seven furlongs at Sandown. He's a strong, mature, good-bodied sort with a long stride who looks built for a mile and a quarter, perhaps a bit more. Nonetheless he was able to outclass his rivals over a sprint trip here despite pulling hard for his head and being denied a clear run.

The pace wasn't slow early on but Wingwalker pulled hard and didn't want to settle. His jockey had to anchor him in behind runners to ensure he didn't run too free and this led to him being boxed in two furlongs out when he was clearly going better than anything.

Wingwalker had to be swung right around a group of horses to get a clear run but lengthened in good style when he did so. He picked the leaders up pretty quickly and strode clear to pass the line moving strongly with a fair bit in hand.

Wingwalker doesn't have the kind of push-botton acceleration you'd normally associate with a Guineas horse. So I suspect he will get done for speed by a few if he takes up his entry in the Dewhurst. Perhaps a mile in soft ground would be enough of a stamina test for him to win the Racing Post Trophy. But personally I don't see him taking a Group race until he goes ten furlongs next year. If he were mine I'd be aiming him at the Prix du Jockey Club, or, if he looks like staying further, the Derby.

IL WARRD HAS A SHOT IN FORET

KALAHARI GOLD (40) doesn't look like a high class horse. He's leggy, immature and light-framed. But he certainly ran like a high class horse when catching the useful IL WARRD (39) in the last hundred years and then scampering away to win the Dubai Duty Free Cup at Newbury.

Kalahari Gold has now won four of his five starts and apparently goes for the Challenge Stakes next. He should have a decent chance in that on this showing. But for me the horse to take out of the race is Il Warrd who moved really strongly throughout, kicked clear then didn't quite get home on the yielding ground.

Il Warrd has won two of the three times he's run on Polytrack or turf with the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description. His sole loss on a quick surface came when he ran second at Royal Ascot. This was his best run yet on the clock but I'd bet him to improve on it on a quicker surface.

I note with interest that Il Warrd is entered in the Prix de la Foret. That race is run over a trip 40 yards short of seven furlongs on a course which has a significant downhill section. So it should be perfect for Il Warrd especially if it's run on the fast surface which normally prevails at Longchamp's Arc meeting.

BLUE MONDAY AS GOOD AS EVER

BLUE MONDAY (41) was probably not suited to the firm surfaces he had to race on in Australia (he returned with chips in his joints). But his win in the Arc Trial at Sandown showed that he's as good as ever. He had a bit of trouble getting through, which is normal for him, but once he got clear he closed strongly to tackle SPANISH MOON (41) and the pair quickly put daylight between themselves and their pursuers.

If one short head photo had gone the other way Blue Monday would now have won all eight times he's run in single figure fields or on straight courses below Group 2 class. Clearly he needs circumstances which make it easier for him to deliver his late run. In fact he's so useful that I'd seriously consider him for a Group 1 race if he hit a small field and had a bit of cut in the ground.

The way that Blue Monday ran here suggests that nowadays the 1m 3f of this race is the bare minimum for him. He had to be rousted along most of the way and only got going properly in the last furlong.

I wish I could claim to understand Spanish Moon, but I can't. He looked like a potential Group 1 horse when coming from an impossible position to win a Listed race at Ascot earlier in the year. But he then produced three sub-par efforts before winning a Listed race last time and then producing this lifetime best effort.

Spanish Moon is so lightly raced that I wouldn't discount the possibility that Sir Michael Stoute will turn him into a Group 1 performer at age five, as he's done with quite a few similar types in the past. It may be that Spanish Moon needs the cut in the ground to produce this level of performance seeing that he fractured his hip a couple of years ago. He did win on fast ground at Ascot but that was off a lay-off.

HALICARNASSUS (25) failed to get home over a trip that is at the outermost limits of his stamina, even on the firmer surface that he needs. But it was surely significant that this small field, late season specialist moved very smoothly until three furlongs out. If he gets a small field and fast ground sometime soon I can see him winning at very nice odds. He's a solid Group 2 horse in these circumstances.

GALLAGHER SHOULD STAY SEVEN FURLONGS

EDDIE JOCK IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

EDDIE JOCK (40) put up one of the best handicap performances by a three year old in recent years when taking the Brittania Handicap under a huge weight. And he showed his high official rating is spot on when beating some smart horses in a hot little Conditions race at Great Leighs.

I was impressed with how easily Eddie Jock got to second place in the early stages of a fast run race. While the other horses were being hustled to get a position before the first turn was reached, Eddie Jock cruised into second spot with Frankie Dettori sitting motionless.

Eddie Jock kept moving strongly in second spot, and it was clear approaching the home straight that he was going better than anything. Sure enough he soon hit the front. But he wasn't keen on seeing so much daylight and ran rather green. He came off a straight line and had to be kept up to his work.

Eddie Jock is somewhat narrow and this probably explains why his four biggest runs since his juvenile days have come off a break. He apparently needs a fast surface which probably explains why his connections ran him on Polytrack while soft ground prevailed on the turf courses.

This was a solid Group 2 performance by Eddie Jock. He's clearly capable of winning in Group company. The next time he comes into a race off a break on fast ground I'd be wary of opposing him.

TURKEY

PRESSING IS SERIOUSLY GOOD ON FLAT COURSES

PRESSING (41) looked seriously good earlier this season when producing a remarkable turn of foot to quickly burst three lengths clear in the Premio Presidente Della Republica in Italy. That day he got run down by the brilliant international performer Saddex. But when he replicated the feat ain the valuable Topkapi Trophy in Turkey the distance was shorter and he was able to hold on to his lead. In doing so he clocked much the fastest time of the day on a very good card.

Veliefenidi, where the Topkapi Trophy is run, is a dead flat track, just like the courses Pressing has done so well on in Italy. Clearly he's not suited to the undulations and uphill finish of Ascot where he's now run below form three times. But on flatter courses he's seriously good. And this run showed that he's effective over a mile as well as ten furlongs.

The acceleration that Pressing has is a potent weapon in Hong Kong where most races beyond six furlongs produce sprint finishes. So I think the plan to run him in the Hong Kong Mile is a good one.

THE CHEKA WAS PROBABLY THE BEST HORSE IN THE SOLARIO STAKES

THE CHEKA (35) had impressed when winning by ten lengths on his racecourse debut and ran another big race to lose the Solario Stakes narrowly.

Racing in second place early, this tall, middle distance prospect kicked on just after the two furlong pole and looked to have his race won. But he jumped the path inside the final furlong, lost momentum and got caught by half a length. His pursuers were closing on him at the time anyway and it's tough to say for sure whether he would have held on. But the main thing to take out of the race is that he put up another useful performance and rates as one of the more promising prospects we've seen for ten furlong and up races next year.

SRI PUTRA (36) looked held when The Cheka went a length and a half up. In fact he looked sure to be passed by the strong finishing PATRICIAN'S GLORY (35) as well. But he produced a classy looking surge in the last half furlong to go away from that one and pick up The Cheka.

Patrician's Glory had won his only previous start and should improve for a further step up in trip. Indeed, like The Cheka, he looks like a ten furlong horse.

Patrician's Glory is not that big and kept being forced out wide by his bigger rivals throughout the contest. He was caught a bit flat footed as the sprint to the line began early in the straight but was picking up really strongly in the closing stages. His jockey said he'd have been happier racing closer to the rail and that's certainly the way it looked to me. This horse's turn of foot is going to win him some good races, especially on faster ground.

The early pace was slow enough to hurt the final time and produce something of a sprint finish (I've adjusted the rating to take account of this). And this didn't exactly help TALKING HANDS (34). His jockey allowed him to start a bit slow so that he could drop out to last and tack over to the rail from his very wide draw. He was still in second last place with two furlongs to run so did very well to pass five horses and finish fourth despite despite having to come through a crowded field. Talking Hands had won the three previous times he'd run seven furlongs or a stiff six and clearly stays well. He's a strong, mature colt who will stay a mile at two without a problem and should get ten furlongs.

WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR WITH ON OUR WAY

ON OUR WAY (34) is an entertainingly large horse. I've mentioned before that he looks more like a steeplechaser than a two year old. But I rather hoped that the extended distance and stiff track would enable him to win the Listed Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury.

Sadly it was not to be. On Our Way didn't have the pace to avoid being tightened up by third placed Derbaas (34). And he couldn't quite pick up the eventual winner SNOQUALMIE GIRL (35) as he was driven along through the final quarter mile. Watching him galumph along with his huge stride it struck me that I was silly to expect him to be able to win in pattern company over a mile. He's already wanting middle distances and will do much better over the longer trips that will be available to him next year.

Snoqualmie Girl is also a middle distance sort who clearly improved for the step up to a mile here. I can see her winning an Oaks Trial next year.