POET'S VOICE HAS A REAL SHOT IN THE BREEDERS' CUP MILE

Few European trainers seem to understand that turf races in America are run like those in France. The runners go slow early then sprint the last few furlongs. This is why French runners have such a terrific record in the Breeders' Cup Mile, with eight wins to date.

British and Irish runners have not done so well in the Breeders Cup Mile because their form has invariably been established in strongly run races over a mile. As a result they usually find themselves done for speed in the big American race.

Over the years there have been 55 British trained runners in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and only one of them scored. Irish trained runners have done far better with two winners from only thirteen starters. But they've still suffered from the same problem.

Ridgewood Pearl won for Ireland in 1995 because the ground was far softer than it's ever been in any other year for the Breeders Cup Mile. They ran over 11 seconds slower than the race record. As a result for once the contest suited horses that actually stayed a mile in a truly run race.

The other British and Irish trained Breeders Cup Mile winners were Barathea and Royal Academy. Barathea ran fourth in the July Cup the year he won the big race while Royal Academy actually won the same race, which is of course Europe's top six furlong sprint.

Most years the top British and Irish sprinters that should be running in the Breeders' Cup Mile either stay at home or attempt to reproduce their form on dirt in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

This year we may finally see a non-French European runner with the right profile contest the Breeders' Cup Mile for the first time in years because Aidan O'Brien has this year's July Cup winner Starspangledbanner in the race. However there does look to be a genuine British contender from outside the sprinting ranks and that is POET'S VOICE (41) who has just won the QEII.

Poet's Voice clearly has the speed for sprinting and used it to produce a tremendous finishing burst and head Rip Van Winkle late at Ascot.

Poet's Voice had impressed me a good deal on his previous two starts.

In the first of them he looked to be in an impossible position approaching the furlong pole in a red hot renewal of the Sovereign Stakes. But when switched to the outside he produced a phenomenal turn of foot and actually looked to have got up. The photo showed he'd lost by a nose but he was moving really strong crossing the line and would surely have got there if he hadn't had to switch.

Next time out on officially soft but actually yielding ground Poet's Voice again showed that amazing finishing speed to simply run away from the smart Main Aim in the final furlong to score by nearly five lengths.

In previous starts, especially when a bit too fresh off a break, Poet's Voice had been way too keen and charged off to the front or chased a furious pace, giving himself little chance of lasting home. But almost all horses learn to settle as they gain experience and Poet's Voice now seems content to do this judged by his last three starts. They show that his tremendous speed can now be used for a late run which is so strong it's awfully hard to resist.

Despite showing such smart form on yielding ground twice in a row Poet's Voice has a fast ground action. And, like almost all horses with a serious turn of foot, he's surely best on a faster surface. He looks a serious player in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Runner up RIP VAN WINKLE (41) was given every chance to win by Johnny Murtagh. He had him positioned perfectly chasing his pacemaker at a searching pace early on before kicking for home halfway up the homestraight. He only just got caught.

The race for Rip Van Winkle at the Breeders Cup is surely the Classic. He lacks the speed and push-button acceleration needed for the Mile but has the right kind of profile to do well in the longer race, even though it's run on dirt.

When he ran a clunker in last year's Breeders Cup Classic the race was run on a mixture of Pro-Ride and Polytrack. Synthetic surfaces like that invariably produce races where the runners race closely bunched up and then sprint for home. This doesn't suit Rip Van Winkle who is rather slow to manouver and has encountered trouble in running several times in big fields.

Indeed, the four times Rip Van Winkle has passed the post first have been in single figure fields. The seven times he's faced ten or more runners he's been beaten (though he did get awarded one race on his debut in a big field).

On dirt field size is far less of a factor because the horses get spread out across a much wider stretch of ground, reducing the chance of them getting in each other's way.

I concede that Rip Van Winkle does not have a traditional dirt pedigree. But he does produce a surge rather than a sharp burst, which is the way dirt horses tend to race. In addition he also has the mile and a half form that most European horses have shown before running well in the Classic. As the legendary American gambler Pittsburgh Phil noted, dirt is a more tiring surface than turf because some of a horse's energy is expended in simply kicking up the surface behind them. This is why they rarely run races beyond ten furlongs on dirt and also why turf horses that run well on dirt have normally shown stamina for further on grass.

Of the eleven horses that Aidan O'Brien has run in the Classic seven have run at least somewhere close to their turf form despite most of them having very 'turfy' pedigrees. So I'm not going to be drawing a line through Rip Van Winkle's name on this score.

The other horse I'll be taking out of the QEII is MAKFI (38) despite the fact he ran below his best to take fifth.

As I see it Makfi needs a longer homestraight or, better still, a longer distance than he had at Ascot. He is a remarkably relaxed runner that just lollops along in his races and takes a while to get rolling.

I recognise that Makfi's trainer said the horse had a throat infection and that's why he ran below form when he ran in the St James's Palace. But you can always dredge up some excuse if you have a vet examine a horse closely enough. And when I re-watch the video of that loss it looked awfully similar to his defeat over the same course and distance in the QEII.

It seems to me Makfi was lobbing along in his usual lazy way in the St James's Palace Stakes and just found the two and a half furlong homestraight a bit too short to get the job done. He came with a decent run as ever but lacked the pace to avoid being the meat in the sandwich approaching the final furlong and got squeezed out.

It was a similar story in the QEII. Makfi lobbed along as per usual and then gained but far too slowly up the relatively short homestraight.

I think it's worth bearing in mind that three of Makfi's four wins have been on straight courses. The other was around Fontainebleau’s giant two mile oval where the homestraight is half a mile. In addition the going was soft which must have helped him.

Makfi clocked a fabulous time to beat a brilliant field in the Guineas and defeated the mighty Goldikova in the Marois (albeit on ground she hates). But he's always looked like a middle distance horse to me. On a normally configured course a mile is surely too short for him.

I'd like to see Makfi go for the Champion Stakes where I think he'd outclass the field. If he shoots for the Breeders' Cup Mile I'd bet on him floundering in the sprint finish around Churchill's seven furlong turf oval.

I reckon Makfi would stay a mile and a half because he races in such a relaxed manner. You can certainly make a case for this on pedigree too. So I do hope he stays in training next year because he could prove to be something really special over longer distances.

CAN FRANKEL SHOW THE SAME FORM OFF A STRONG EARLY PACE?

One horse that taught me a good lesson about the effect of pace many years ago was a South African colt called Big Swinger.

Big Swinger was a very athletic horse whose over-abundant muscles made him very good at short burst activity, like a body builder is. He could pick up in sensational style off a slow early pace. He'd quicken up to sprint right away from his rivals and look like a champion. But when he contested a truly run race the finish was run out of him and he'd fold up like a pricked balloon.

Big Swinger never actually won above Listed class despite looking astonishingly good on several occasions in tactically run races against lesser rivals.

I always saw Big Swinger as something of a freak and never thought I'd see his like again. But FRANKEL (32), the winner of last week's Royal Lodge Stakes, reminds me an awful lot of him.

In the Royal Lodge Stakes the early pace was very moderate. They reached the three furlong from home marker a massive 4.7 seconds later than they did in the QEII on the same card. But when Frankel was shaken up and asked to quicken up from there he did so in the most extraordinary fashion. He actually ran the last three furlongs 2.7 seconds quicker than they did in the QEII. I clocked him doing it in 35.7 seconds despite the fact that the going was yielding and the finish steeply uphill. That's bordering on impossible. So it's hardly surprising Frankel was able to run right away from his rivals to score by ten lengths.

Frankel did something very similar at Doncaster on his previous outing when skating thirteen lengths clear over the last three furlongs in a small field at Doncaster where the early pace was slow for the first half mile.

On his debut, the only occasion he ran in anything like a strongly run race, Frankel scrambled home by just half a length in a maiden.

Frankel's half brother Bullet Train has a similar, hyper-muscular physique and shows the same sharp contrast to his form in slow and strongly run races.

If I invoke the sectional timing formula I use to adjust my speed ratings in slow run races I'd have to give Frankel a rating which suggests he'd have gone close in the QEII itself. But in this instance I have to question whether my formula isn't simply producing a hypothetical rating that Frankel could never produce in a truly run race.

If I could be sure that the pace was going to be slow I'd bet Frankel to beat basically anything over seven furlongs or a mile. But things are going to get a whole lot harder for him from now on because he'll be stepping up to Group 1 company where slow run races are uncommon - at least in Britain and Ireland.

If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with Frankel this year is the Criterium de Saint Cloud. Next year I'd be focusing his early campaign around the French Guineas. Those races are often slow run. But the Dewhurst, the Racing Post Trophy and the British Guineas are usually strongly run affairs.

It will be interesting to see how Frankel holds up when he's asked to go a strong pace from the start. My suspicion is that he'll run like Big Swinger and his half brother Bullet Train and tire in the closing stages.

My theory looks likely to get a good test in the near future as it seems likely Frankel will head to the Dewhurst Stakes for his next run. In that race Aidan O'Brien will surely employ pacemakers to ensure it's a stiff enough test for Zoffany.

Judged by the comments of trainer Henry Cecil he shares my view that there's only an outside chance Frankel would last the Derby distance. I'd be most surprised if he lined up at Epsom. The horse is all about speed rather than stamina.

WHITE MOONSTONE NEEDS FASTER GROUND

WHITE MOONSTONE (35) had shown brilliant acceleration in her previous starts and looked set to do so again in the Fillies' Mile when moving up smoothly to challenge two furlongs out. However when jockey Frankie Dettori asked her to quicken she looked to be floundering in the yielding ground. She failed to go away from her rivals and flashed her tail when given a crack with the whip. This is a sure sign a horse has no more to give and knocks on the head any suggestion that Dettori won the race cheekily and that White Moonstone had something in hand.

I concede this was a Group 1 win, but it didn't look as good to me as White Moonstone's runaway success in the May Hill Stakes. As I see it she was lucky to retain her unbeaten record. In future I'll be opposing her with some confidence on yielding or softer ground.

Runner up TOGETHER (35) kept worrying away at the winner but lacked the acceleration to go past. She's by Galileo and a half sister to the smart mile and a half performer Jan Vermeer. This suggests she's more of an Oaks prospect than a 1000 Guineas candidate. Over a mile I suspect she's always going to find one or two too good for her in Group 1 company, except perhaps on soft ground.

Third placed THEYSKENS' THEORY (34) has the muscular physique and relatively short stride of a dirt runner, which is hardly surprising given her pedigree. She seemed to get through the ground okay but flattened out in the final furlong, allowing the first two to get away from her.

Right now Theyskens' Theory does look a little immature in that her back end is slightly higher than her front (something you see to a more pronounced extent in yearlings on stud farms because horses' back ends seem to grow first). However she clearly has ability. If she were mine I'd be awfully tempted to run her on dirt in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Next year I'd like to see her steered towards the Kentucky Oaks, America's top dirt race for three year old fillies.

DANGEROUS MIDGE HAS A SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

DANGEROUS MIDGE (38) will almost certainly start a whole lot bigger for the Breeders' Cup Turf than the stingy 12-1 the bookies are currently offering. And I concede that even when I adjust my speed figure to take account of the slow early pace and sprint finish I can't give him better than a Group 3 class rating for his win in the Arc Trial at Newbury.

However the thing that was most impressive about Dangerous Midge at Newbury is exactly what wins big US turf races, namely his finishing speed. He quickened up in tremendous fashion off the crawl set by Monitor Closely. In fact I clocked him running the final two furlongs in exactly the same time that Astrophysical Jet managed in the Group 3 over five furlongs at the meeting next day.

The way that Dangerous Midge simply left his rivals for dead in the final furlong was rather impressive. I can see him running a big race at Churchill Downs.

Dangerous Midge is a good-bodied, strong, classy looking sort that any jumps trainer would give their eye teeth for. Unfortunately he does have a quirk and this is summed up by his jockey Martin Dwyer who states "he can race lazily". That's an understatement if ever there was one.

Four runs back at Royal Ascot Dangerous Midge was being rowed along vigorously by halfway. In fact Dwyer gave him a stiff crack with the whip. He rolled along gradually closing the gap late in proceedings, and it was kind of worrying how he had his ears pricked as he did so but clearly wasn't doing a tap despite his jockey's urgings.

The run before it was a similar story. Dwyer was really earning his keep soon after halfway by stoking Dangerous Midge up vigorously. But again his mount wasn't responding despite looking to be cruising and having his ears pricked. He eventually dropped his hands in the final furlong and Dangerous Midge showed his appreciation by slowing up and getting beat 14 lengths.

It could well be that the huge fields in those two contests, and the Ebor where he also ran unplaced, are not to Dangerous Midge's liking and that he only consents to extend himself when there's no risk of having to fight his way through serious traffic. In this regard it's interesting to note that he's won five of the six times he run in fields of 14 or less and finished sixth or worse all four times he's run in bigger fields.

This does raise a concern about how well Dangerous Midge will do around the tight seven furlong turf course at Churchill in a competitive race like the Breeders' Cup Turf. But, as I see it, it's an experiment that simply has to be tried. On this showing the slow early pace and sprint finishes of American turf racing look likely to suit him brilliantly.

The fast ground was surely not ideal for runner up RAINBOW PEAK (35) who has had a litany of physical problems over the years. But his stride was no more choppy than it's been on fast ground in the past when he's won. I think it was simply that he couldn't cope with the sprint finish. When the ground softens up he's surely going to win something decent.

Third placed CAMPANOLOGIST (34) seems to run his very best races on tracks with homestraights of three furlongs or less because they give him less time to think about easing himself up. He's now won five from eight on such tracks and run second in fast time in two of his losses to smart rivals. He did well to run so well here on such a big course. Indeed the very worst circumstances for Campanologist seem to be a big, galloping track with a homestraight of half a mile or more like Newbury in a race of ten furlongs plus. This gives him plenty of time to get tired and ease himself up. He's blanked all ten times he's faced these circumstances and won nine of the fifteen times he hasn't.

I'm not sure the Melbourne Cup is a great target for Campanologist. Although Flemington has a short enough homestraight for him there has to be a worry that he'll get tired in the closing stages over the longer trip and want to ease himself up like he does on tracks with long homestraights.

Fourth placed BAUER (34) is another matter. He's already finished a short head second in the Melbourne Cup after winning the Geelong Cup. He's clearly well suited to conditions down under and ran a promising race here on his second run back from injury - keeping on with real zest to just miss third place. I wouldn't discount his chances of going one better in the big race in November.

MONITOR CLOSELY (34), the fifth horse past the line, shot himself in the foot for the second time in a row by setting a slow pace then getting caught flat-footed in the ensuing sprint finish. He's a big, long striding sort that lengthens rather than quickens. The energy with which he ran both here and last time out tell me that although he's run unplaced in all three of his starts this year he's as good as ever.

One thing I found really heartening about this run from Monitor Closely is that despite the fast ground he did not carry his head tilted the right as he did last season when running on a quick surface. It looks like the operation to remove bone chips in his ankles has had an effect and he's now happier to let himself down.

I can readily see Monitor Closely winning a higher grade race than this soon when he gets a stronger early pace or a slower surface to counteract his lack of acceleration. After all he romped the Great Voltigeur last year and finished third in the St Leger even though his jockey said he failed to last the distance.

DOES TEMPLE MEAD REALLY STAY SIX FURLONGS?

A lot of two year old races are run at a moderate gallop for the first couple of furlongs. So you're often left to guess whether the winner truly stayed the distance. In the case of TEMPLE MEADS (38) my suspicion is that the answer will prove to be no.

Temple Meads certainly looked impressive quickening away from his rivals in the sprint home for the Mill Reef Stakes. And I have to give him a really big speed rating when I adjust it for the sectional times. But his sire scored his three Group wins at five furlongs, and his dam never won beyond the minimum distance. Throw in his close-coupled physique and the tremendous leg speed he displayed in the last two furlongs and I find it hard to escape the conclusion he's going to prove best over the minimum distance.

The horse that was surely most disadvantaged by the flat out sprint finish was surely third placed CROWN PROSECUTOR (35) because he's just too tall and long striding to cope with it. He actually has the physique of a seven furlong horse but he's by Exceed And Excel whose progeny often look built for longer trips but fail to stay beyond six furlongs (rather like those of that other popular Aussie sprint sire Choisir).

Trainer Brian Meehan may have been misled by Crown Prosecutor's physique into thinking he stayed longer (a mistake I've made numerous times with the progeny of Choisir and Exceed and Excel). In any event the horse finished distressed when failing to get home the only time he was tried beyond six furlongs.

Before this run Crown Prosecutor had won two from three at six furlongs and lost the Gimcrack by less than a length in his sole defeat over the trip.

EASTERN ARIA HAS A REAL SHOT IN CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL

EASTERN ARIA (40) broke the course record when winning one of only two long distance Group races for fillies in Europe, the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. And she would have broken the course record again when taking the other such race, the Park Hill Stakes, if the ground had been just a teeny bit faster.

I really liked the way Eastern Aria rallied when runner up Rumoush came out of the pack and looked set to pass her. She started to go away from her rival again inside the last furlong and it seemed to me she could have produced more if needed.

Like a lot of horses in Mark Johnston’s care Eastern Aria is not really bred to stay longer trips. Nonetheless she has won five of the seven times she's gone eleven furlongs or more.

In the Lillie Langtry Eastern Aria came from off a searching early pace to cruise into the lead over two furlongs out while her rivals were all hard ridden. Then she extended her lead steadily while merely ridden out, looking a cut above her opposition.

If one half length loss in a slow run 10f Polytrack race had one her way Eastern Aria would have won six of the seven times she's run in races restricted to fillies below Group 1 class. She ran fourth over an inadequate ten furlongs the only time she tackled Group 1 company.

Eastern Aria ran a close fourth in the Group 2 Prix de Pomone last time, staying on well in a near sprint finish off a relatively modest early pace over 1m 4.5 furlongs. The leaders started to get away from her as the sprint began and she slipped back to sixth but rallied late to come back into fourth as her stamina came into play and finished full of run. It could well be she didn't like the soft ground that day.

Johnston had Eastern Aria in the Prix Gladiateur over two miles at Longchamp on Sunday and has entered her for the Melbourne Cup over two miles and the Prix du Cadran over two and a half as well. But I was pleased to hear he intends sticking to his original plan of going for the Canadian International instead. On what she showed here Eastern Aria is going to be a serious player in that race.

Runner up RUMOUSH (39) would have won the vast majority of Park Hill Stakes and was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival. Her effort showed that despite the doubts raised by her pedigree Rumoush stays the Leger trip really well.

I guess Rumoush has too commercial a pedigree to be kept in training another year. This suggests that she'll be taking up her entry in the Prix de Royallieu in an effort to gain that all important Group win she needs to enhance her stud value. I'd have to give her a real shot in that race.

Third placed Meeznah kept on well for third and has the option of going for the Prix de Royallieu as well. She did meet a little traffic trouble but I'm not convinced she'd turn this form around at Longchamp. I think Rumoush is a slightly better horse and more likely to adapt back to the shorter distance than Meeznah who is a rangy, staying sort.

MYPLACELATER SHOWS THAT AMAZING FINISHING SPEED AGAIN

The valuable ten furlong Conditions race for three year olds at Doncaster's St Leger meeting usually goes to a Group 1 or 2 horse. Logically therefore it ought to be awarded Group race status by the pattern committee. But if it was I suspect they'd have to drop the key condition which draws in so many high class runners - namely that runners in the race must not have won a pattern race that season.

There are always some very smart horses that haven't won a pattern race that season for one reason or another and the Doncaster race caters to them perfectly. So I guess it's best to leave well alone as the contest currently serves a very good purpose which would be destroyed by awarding it the Group status that it deserves.

This year's renewal was a red hot contest that should repay a lot of study. I think it's likely to produce several big race winners, and that the first three home all have real prospects of scoring in Group 1 company.

The winner was that admirable filly MYPLACELATER (39) who was so unlucky to lose the Cheshire Oaks earlier this season. Held up in third last position she produced the fantastic burst of finishing speed that's her trademark to get up on the line.

Trainer David Elsworth admits he ran Myplacelater one too many times in a short period when she finished last at Newbury three runs back. She was also in season. Before that she'd looked awfully smart.

Myplacelater beat the subsequent Lingfield Derby Trial winner Bullet Train in a hot conditions race at Newbury. And she really should have won a Classic Trial of her own when she contested the Cheshire Oaks.

Unfortunately her chances were compromised by an absolute crawl of an early gallop that was followed by a flat out sprint to the line.

Myplacelater began the sprint four or five lengths behind and did very well to pick up about three lengths in the last furlong, showing a tremendous turn of foot, despite having to switch for a run. I've no doubt whatsoever that in a truly run race she would have been a rather impressive winner.

In her comeback race off a two month break Myplacelater contested another good Conditions race against colts at Leicester. She lobbed along at the back and initially looked in a bit of trouble as she swung wide and tried to go past the leaders. But towards the end of the race her obvious stamina came into play. She just kept going with that big stride of hers and mowed down the useful Desert Myth to win still moving strong at the line.

Earlier this season I wrote that I could readily see Myplacelater at least placing in a Group 1. So after that Leicester run I thought she was a smart bet to win a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood. Unfortunately she lost her action in that race and was allowed to come home in her own time. In addition it is worth bearing in mind that she's a light framed, leggy sort that was in hindsight once more probably brought back to the races too soon.

Trainer David Elsworth says he now plans to rest Myplacelater till next season as she's still leggy and hopes she can grow a bit during the Winter. This would give her a chance of taking her races better and not needing to be freshened up like she's been before her last two wins. He's still convinced that she can do even better over longer than ten furlongs, which is pretty amazing seeing the runner up here was a colt that had finished second in a Group 1 last time out.

Unless she really thickens up noticably next year I'd still bet on Myplacelater needing five weeks or more between her runs after her first couple of outings. She looks a serious prospect for the top fillies races next year. I imagine the Yorkshire Oaks and Prix Vermeille will be the major targets given what Elsworth has said. But she ran fast enough here to be a serious player in big ten furlong Group 1's for fillies like the Pretty Polly and Prix l'Opera.

WIGMORE HALL (39) was settled in second last place, set down for his challenge two furlongs out, got a narrow lead and looked set to hold it till the filly flashed by with her amazing late charge. I really don't think it made any difference that her jockey put his stick down and rode his mount out with hands and heels in the last few strides. Wigmore Hall didn't decelerate at all because of this. He was simply passed by a rival with an almost irresistible finishing kick.

The ground was only on the slow side of good, as it was when Wigmore Hall ran second to the top US turf 3YO Paddy O'Prado last time. So we don't really know yet whether he can act on a softer surface. My bet is he's always going to be a bit better on really fast ground as he's such a good moving sort and can produce a serious turn of foot - as he demonstrated on his seasonal debut at Newmarket.

Wigmore Hall keeps hitting the same good Group 2 rating but my sense from watching him is that he's going to prove capable of running fast enough to win a Group 1. He's a racy, athletic sort that is getting better and better as he learns more about the game. If the ground comes up fast for the Champion Stakes I'll think long and hard about opposing him. Later on he looks a serious proposition for the Hong Kong Vase.

It was most surprising to see AL ZIR (38) start 6-5 favourite after Godolphin Racing Manager Simon Crisford had warned he would need the run. But he came close to justifying the support by running a close third.

Al Zir is heavily muscled, like a lot of US breds (I'm convinced it's because US stud farms give their yearlings steroids - which are legal stateside). He has a long, flowing stride that's tailor-made for fast ground - and for the new generation of artificial surfaces which hold together even more strongly than grass, making them perfect for long striding sorts.

Like many horses that are in need of a run, Al Zir raced keenly in second place early on, pulling hard. He started to come under pressure after passing the three furlong pole but kept on well to stay a close second till the winner flashed by him and the leader late. He wasn't given a hard time in the closing stages, possibly because the bit had slipped through his mouth which made him hard to ride.

Al Zir has the build of a ten furlong horse. He did well to finish ninth of nineteen in the 2000 Guineas following a slow start. He did break his maiden on yielding ground and ran third in the Racing Post Trophy on going slightly on the slow side of good. But he has a fast ground action. He looked to have grown and filled out quite a bit from the leggy, immature sort we'd seen on his previous outing three months before.

I like the way Al Zir lengthened to put away two rivals in a slow run Conditions race at Doncaster last term. He didn't look to be going through the slower surface as well when third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy.

Al Zir had obvious stamina doubts before the Derby and clearly didn’t get the mile and a half. He tired quite badly and was beginning to go legless in the closing stages.

I'm betting that run knocked Al Zir for a loop and that's why he needed the rest. I imagine it will have dissuaded his connections from trying a mile and a half with him again.

Al Zir is in the Champion Stakes, the Prix Dollar and the La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte. I imagine he'll go for whichever one of those contests provides fast ground.

I'm sure Godolphin have the Dubai World Cup firmly in mind for Al Zir early next year. I'd expect to see him tackle the final leg of the Maktoum Challenge on the way to that contest. He's one of the most exciting prospects for that meeting.

Fourth placed BLACK SPIRIT (38) ran a big race to finish so close to three top class horses.

After breaking first, Black Spirit was eased back to third where he moved well till the race began in earnest half a mile out. At that point he began to look less comfortable than the three that beat him and also Taameer who later blew up through lack of fitness. Nonetheless he was able to work his way forwards to dispute the lead in a line of four horses two furlongs out before ceding ground until reaching the furlong pole where he stopped doing so as his stamina seemed to kick in. He kept moving strong all the way to the line - looking like a mile and a half horse running against ten furlong specialists.

Black Spirit clearly improved when encountering a soft surface for the first time in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano over ten furlongs at Deauville last time where he finished third. I don't think that's because he prefers soft ground though, it's simply that it made the race a greater test of stamina.

The winner of that Deauville race was Scalo who is unbeaten in four starts over ten furlongs or less and quite possibly Group 1 class. The runner up was Wealthy who had won two decent races and finished a half length second to Planteur and Emerald Commander in two of his losses - and that pair are among the top three year olds in Europe on my ratings.

In the Guillaume d'Ornano Black Spirit got caught flat-footed when the slow pace quickened up entering the straight to a sprint finish. But in the final furlong he began to pick up smoothly and strongly to pass three horses. His jockey saw he couldn't get to the first two and only rode him out hands and heels. It was impressive how he so readily closed the gap while in a race where he passed the line full of running.

They went about seven seconds slower than they should have done in the early stages that day. In a more truly run race I reckon Black Spirit might well have won.

Trainer Clive Cox said before his recent French outing that Black Spirit" Had his wind operated on at the end of last season which has helped him but we'd always tied his tongue down but didn't when he came back in a handicap at Newmarket in May because he'd been training really well. He may have panicked without it but it's been on in the two runs since."

Cox added "I feel ten furlongs is much more preferable than a mile and he could get 12 furlongs." Which is what I think too.

This was effectively a Group 2 race and Black Spirit had run well in Group 2's on his previous two outings. I don't know whether an extra two furlongs will enable him to make the jump to being competitive in Group 1 company but he's surely going to take a Group race of some sort sooner rather than later.

Fifth placed PRIZEFIGHTING (37) ran a very interesting race, one that almost certainly tells us a lot about him, though I'm not sure exactly what.

Prizefighting settled in last place, moving smoothly. But he seemed to have a disagreement with his jockey when asked to come off the rail and go around the field for his run three furlongs out. He hung determinedly towards the rail and his jockey had to resort to the whip to stop him going there. When he got in among horses in the final furlong Prizefighting stopped hanging and finished well, closing the gap despite not being ridden seriously.

This is the second time in a row that Prizefighting has hung. It's hard not to notice that he's run three big races on the three occasions he's run on right handed courses but failed to reach the first four the four times he’s tackled left-handed, straight or nearly straight tracks.

My thinking at this stage is that it's more a matter of Prizefighting disliking really huge galloping tracks like Newmarket and Doncaster rather than favouring right handed courses. He can produce a tremendous burst of speed that's best employed around tighter courses. Then again it could be he's simply a tricky ride. Maybe he'd benefit from sheepskin cheekpieces too.

On several occasions Prizefighting has run like a horse that could win a seriously good Group races. He's only run seven times so far and my bet is he fulfils his potential sometime soon.

TAAMEER (36) finished last but got beat only four lengths and ran rather promisingly considering it was his first start in over a year and a half. He's a big-bodied, strong deep chested mile and a half sort. So he surely needed the run and found the distance inadequate. Nonetheless he went well for a long way and moved up in the straight to be one of four disputing the lead two furlongs out. He then looked to blow up through lack of fitness thereafter and faded.

I don't think it would be a good idea to take up Taameer's Cambridgeshire entry. He was gearing up for the Derby last year before picking up an unspecified injury (I'm betting a fracture because he's so top heavy). He still looks a mile and a half prospect to me, one that will probably do best with a bit of cut in the ground I suspect as he doesn't look to possess a terrific change of pace and would likely not let himself down fully on a firm surface due to his size and that old injury. I see him as a future mile and a half Group 3 winner.

FRANKEL NEEDS TO DO MORE

FRANKEL (36) was certainly impressive when winning at Doncaster last week. But a victory in an unlisted race where he had only two moderate opponents hardly justifies promoting him to Derby favouritism.

The early pace was pretty slow but they picked up from halfway and Frankel was sprinting at full tilt for the last quarter mile or more. So Frankel had a decent opportunity to clock a time representative of his ability. The fact that he could only run a Group 3 class time therefore makes me want to see him do more before jumping on the bandwagon.

Frankel doesn't wear that cross noseband for nothing. He's clearly a keen going sort. The fact he was able to sprint at such speed in the closing stages, covering the last three furlongs 2.5 seconds faster than White Moonstone, suggests to me he may well have as much difficulty as his half brother Bullet Train in stretching his stamina to a mile and a half. He's heavily muscled just like that colt.

Bullet Train did manage to win the Lingfield Derby Trial but that was off a slow early pace. He tired to run unplaced over a mile and a half in his subsequent three outings and will surely be cut back to ten furlongs if he stays in training next year.

Frankel is strong and very mature. Clearly he's a smart prospect. I just don't think he's a Derby prospect, and I need convincing that he's Group 1 class.

WHITE MOONSTONE IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

WHITE MOONSTONE (36) looked awfully good winning the May Hill Stakes. She simply sauntered away from her rivals and managed to clock a Group class time despite being so heavily eased in the final furlong she clocked a time 2.5 seconds slower for the last three furlongs than the useful Frankel did on the same card. I just have to believe she'd have been able to pull out at least another three lengths if Frankie Dettori had gotten serious with her - and that would have earned her the biggest speed rating I've given a two year old filly all season - or am likely to.

White Moonstone is by Dynaformer and has a fairly stout dam's side to her pedigree. But she's so muscular and pacey I'm not really sure she's going to last much more than the mile of the May Hill Stakes. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor said something similar to this too. She looks a tremendously good candidate for the 1000 Guineas though.

If she were mine I'd be inclined to take up White Moonstone's entry in the Marcel Boussac rather than the Fillies' Mile because she's more likely to get a fast surface at Longchamp (which I'm betting she prefers given her pace and stride pattern), plus it's a less testing course. She'd obviously be tough to beat in either race though.

ARCTIC COSMOS WON ON STAMINA

You won't see many better exhibitions of raw stamina than that of ARCTIC COSMOS (39) in the St Leger. He was only lumbering in the closing stages at a rate of around 14 seconds a furlong. But the early pace had been so strong that was enough to secure him the win from rivals that wilted one by one up the homestraight.

Seeing that he's a great big strapping beast that looks built for three miles over jumps it wasn't totally surprising to hear that his connections plan on switching him to hurdling next year and believe he'll do well over fences eventually. I suspect they're right. Meanwhile he is set to run in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

It might seem laughable to believe that a horse which finished so slowly can win a contest where they often run under 24 seconds for the last quarter mile. But the stats suggest that Arctic Cosmos actually has something going for him in the big American race. If Milan had won instead of finishing a close second the last three horses to run in the Breeders' Cup Turf the season they placed in the St Leger would have scored.

We've seen out and out plodders like Buck's Boy win the Breeders' Cup Turf. We've seen renewals like 2006 where the early pace has been so strong stamina has become a huge factor. And we've also seen years like 2007 when the ground has been soft enough to counteract the lack of acceleration of a horse like Arctic Cosmos.

Of course if the ground is firm on the big day and the early pace seems set to be ordinary Arctic Cosmos will have little chance. But I think it's premature to be drawing a line through his name.

Runner up MIDAS TOUCH (38) looked to be going better than anything bar Snow Fairy turning in. But as they got closer to the finish he started to require riding ever more harder. My impression was that he didn't really get the distance and will do better back at a mile and a half.

SNOW FAIRY (37) clearly didn't get home. She was held up to get the trip and between the three and two furlong poles it looked to be simply a matter of when jockey Eddie Ahern chose to press the button. But then she emptied and her run flattened out. I wasn't surprised to hear that she is to be cut back to ten furlongs for either the Prix l'Opera or Champion Stakes.

JOSHUA TREE (36) also ran like a non stayer. He picked up ground after being held up right out the back with Snow Fairy. But he looked to be gaining on class rather than stamina as he was moving along like a car with a flat tire just like Snow Fairy in the final furlong.

Joshua Tree had moved strongly early on. Back over a mile and a half I still see him as a potential Group 1 winner.

REWILDING (35) was in trouble early in the straight and never looked like getting competitive from a long way out. I'd suggested after his big win in the Voltigeur that the Leger would probably come too soon as his record suggests he's best fresh. Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni voiced similar thoughts after this flop and will no doubt space his runs out more in future.

Let's not forget Rewilding put up a truly sensational performance in the Great Voltigeur. As long as he can be kept fresh, avoid really firm ground and slow run races he has the potential to win some of the world's top mile and a half races for Godolphin.

OTTOMAN EMPIRE IS GROUP CLASS

Henry Cecil's former assistant David Lanigan has made a terrific start to his training career and seems to have the same knack as Mark Johnston over longer distances. 16 of his 41 runners beyond ten furlongs have scored. You'd have made a big profit betting them all.

The time to really sit up and take notice with Lanigan is when he brings a horse back off a break beyond ten furlongs. To date he's run ten horses off breaks of five weeks or more beyond ten furlongs and seven of the ten won.

The most recent occasion Lanigan performed the feat was with the promising OTTOMAN EMPIRE (39) who won impressively at Kempton off an eleven month break last week.

The race was run at a moderate early gallop that picked up sharply in the last three furlongs. Despite this Ottoman Empire was able to stretch two lengths clear of the useful Luc Jordan while covering the last three furlongs of the 11f race in just 35.1 seconds. That's 1.5 seconds quicker than they managed in the six furlong handicap which was the fastest race on the card. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests a solid Group class performance by Ottoman Empire.

Ottoman Empire simply cruised through the early part of the race and only had to be shaken up in the sprint finish to go clear. He looked like a Group racer running against handicappers, and that's what he was according to my ratings.

Ottoman Empire first came to my attention when finishing a close second in a red hot handicap over the same course a year ago. I awarded the first three past the post pattern class speed ratings that day. The winner and third have both gone on to confirm my assessment by winning very valuable handicaps (50,000 pounds plus). Ottoman Empire has yet to have that opportunity as he failed to handle soft ground next time and then met with a training setback.

Back in May David Lanigan had this to say about Ottoman Empire:

"He's had a setback that will keep him off till August. We always though that being by Pivotal he wouldn't mind how soft it was but it was too soft for him on his last run at Nottingham. He just wants good safe ground and we've gelded him which will help. He'll be a good horse to have fresh going into the final third of the season."

Toss out his runs on soft and firm ground and Ottoman Empire's remaining five runs are three wins and two seconds to Group class rivals.

Ottoman Empire has always been well regarded by Lanigan who twice made a point of saying last year that he felt the horse was very much a horse for the next season and would improve. Well the next season has arrived and it looks like Lanigan is right.

Lanigan suggested that the November handicap would be a logical target for Ottoman Empire. I'd agree, as long as the ground doesn't come up soft. Later on he's surely worth taking to Dubai for the Carnival where he could win some decent races on either turf or Tapeta.

It will be interesting to see just how good Ottoman Empire turns out to be. Right now I'd be happy to bet him to take a Group 3.

Runner up LUC JORDAN (37) was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival in a class 3 handicap. He'd won three of the four previous times he'd run on Polytrack or yielding or softer turf following a recent run and is clearly useful on anything except fast turf. If he were mine I'd be inclined to stop with him now to retain his freshness and lenient handicap mark for races on Tapeta at the Dubai Carnival.