DEBUSSY MAY BE BEST WITH EASE IN GROUND

DEBUSSY (40) looked really good winning the Arlington Million last week, coming with a tremendous late surge to blow by US turf champ Gio Ponti after getting shuffled back in heavy traffic around the home turn into what looked an unwinnable position.

I've banged on a few times in this column about my theory that Debussy is best over a mile and a quarter on straight or left-handed tracks. That's why I fancied him to win the Arlington Million. After the race jockey William Buick and trainer John Gosden supported this idea. Buick told reporters “He always hangs left. You can’t get him off the left rein.” Gosden added that Debussy didn't get twelve furlongs in Europe but he felt he would around the very tight (seven furlong) turf circuit at Churchill Downs.

In my experience when you have a theory about a horse confirmed by the result of a race and also the trainer and jockey it tends to be right. However I should point out that there's potentially a simpler explanation for Debussy's apparent in and out form.

You could very well argue that Debussy needs a bit of give in the ground because he's such a big, top heavy horse. His record certainly suggests this is likely.

To see this pattern in Debussy's form you first need to understand that in America there are three descriptions normally used to describe the state of the ground on turf. These are firm, good and yielding. Firm is the description you'll see for well over 90% of US Turf races. It's the equivalent of good to firm or good in Europe. When the ground is slower than 'firm' US punters describe it as 'off turf' - meaning it suits softer ground performers. Weirdly 'off turf' begins with 'good' ground which is what we'd call yielding or good to soft in Europe. American yielding is what we'd call soft. When they use the word soft to describe the ground we'd call it heavy (a term they don't use).

The going was officially 'good' for the Arlington Million and that's why Debussy clocked a time 4.32 seconds slower than the track record despite the good pace set by his stablemate Tazeez.

In Europe Debussy has won all four times he's run beyond sprint trips on Polytrack (a surface with plenty of cushion) or on turf where the word 'soft' has appeared in the official going description. His Arlington Million win makes it five from five on easier surfaces beyond sprint trips.

If this alternative theory is right Debussy chance in the Breeders' Cup Turf may well be determined by the state of the ground.

PADDY O'PRADO HAS A SHOT IN BREEDERS' CUP TURF

I thought British raider WIGMORE HALL (39) was a good thing to win the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington. But he got beat fair and square by PADDY O'PRADO (40). The American three year old held his late run by a length and a quarter with an equally strong finish of his own.

The early pace was slow, but when I use a formula I've developed to adjust for this it suggests Paddy O'Prado is just as good as Arlington Million winner Debussy. A projection from my past ratings for Wigmore Hall says the same thing.

Paddy O’Prado is by the smart turf performer El Prado out of a dam whose own dam is by Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Prized and whose only previous foal was a turf horse. So it’s hardly a shock that he's proven so good on turf. And the fact that he was able to finish third on dirt in the Kentucky Derby suggests he could well be even better than he's shown so far.

Paddy O'Prado has now won all four times he's run in Graded Stakes on turf over nine furlongs or more and clearly has the turn of foot needed to win big races on turf in America. His trainer Dale Romans has compared him favourably with Kitten's Joy who ran second in the Breeders' Cup Turf as a three year old.

The Europeans often seem to send over the wrong horses for the Breeders' Cup. And they frequently target the wrong races with those they do run. So I reckon Paddy O'Prado has a shot of going one better than Kitten's Joy and taking the Breeders' Cup Turf for the home team. Though I have to add my gut feel from watching him win this is that he'll find one or two too good for him.

Wigmore Hall would still be an interesting runner in the race if his owner is prepared to stump up the huge supplementary entry fee. It's possible that on a faster surface and off a stronger early pace he could turn the form around in the big race.

If he were mine I'd continue campaigning Wigmore Hall in big international races rather than back home in Europe. His smart turn of foot makes him very well suited to the way most of the top international middle distance turf races are run. The same can be said of his preference for firm ground. By the sounds of his connections later comments it appears they feel the same way.