PROVISO LOOKS THE MAIN THREAT TO GOLDIKOVA

I have to invoke my sectional timing formula to give PROVISO (39) a decent speed rating for her win in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland. The race featured a slow early pace, as is usually the case in American turf contests.

Proviso was certainly impressive. With a quarter mile left she was half a dozen lengths back in eighth place as the field quickened up to cover the last quarter mile in just 23.06 seconds. To make up the leeway she had to really fly, and she did. She took off to catch the leader hand over fist and won going away by a rapidly widening half a length.

This is not the first time Proviso has shown that she can produce an extraordinary burst of finishing speed. When she ran in the Prix Saint-Alary last year she covered the last quarter mile in an amazing 22.2 seconds - that's about as fast as you can go at the end of a middle distance race.

Proviso's turn of foot is exactly what wins the slow run races they have on turf in America. So it's no surprise she's won four Grade 1's in a row - including one against males over a mile.

Stamina has always been a limiting factor with Proviso. She doesn't stay ten furlongs. And she doesn't get home on soft ground or last a mile on stiff or straight tracks either. However she's won the last seven times she's run on turf or Polytrack in less testing circumstances like those she’s likely to meet in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Proviso's trainer Bill Mott says that since his charge couldn't beat Goldikova in France he's concerned about her chances of beating her in the Breeders' Cup Mile. But in fact two of her losses to Goldikova were on straight courses. The only time the pair met around a turn, admittedly over a distance neither truly stays, was when they ran third and fourth to the mighty Zarkava in the Prix de Diane. That day Goldikova was just a neck ahead of Proviso.

It's also worth pointing out that Proviso has grown noticeably since her three year old days. She's a bigger, stronger filly than the one Goldikova beat last year.

As I see it although Goldikova is clearly the best racemare of the last decade or more she's vulnerable in her bid for a third Breeders' Cup Mile due to prepping in two tough races on ground much softer than she likes. Proviso looks a serious danger, and much the biggest of all her rivals.

BREEDERS' CUP MILE PROBABLY NOT RIGHT RACE FOR GIO PONTI

I have long believed that horses perform best at the outermost limits of their stamina. Over shorter distances they can be outpaced and lack the speed to manouver out of traffic problems. Over longer they're at risk of not lasting home.

This being so I'm always sceptical about a horse's chances when it goes down in distance after proving highly effective over longer trips.

It's certainly true that America's top older middle distance turf performer GIO PONTI (38) won the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile comfortably last week in his prep for the Breeders' Cup Mile. But the race hardly offered the same class of competition as that he'll be meeting in the big race itself. The one length runner up is simply not a Grade 1 horse.

The truth is there are simply way too many Grade 1 races in America. So many in fact that the best horses can usually avoid each other outside of the Breeders' Cup. Ever since the pattern system was formed the number of Grade 1 races run in America has spiraled upwards, seemingly out of control. There's now at least twice as many as there should be.

I concede Gio Ponti won the race smoothly and quite easily. But he clocked a slower time than the other big Breeders' Cup Mile candidate, Proviso, did on the same card and he covered the last quarter of a mile in slower time as well. If he was a better horse over the distance he should have come home quicker in a race where the time was slower than hers.

It has to be a concern that despite the tiny field Gio Ponti took a bump on his way to victory. This raises doubts about whether he'll be able to avoid traffic problems in the much bigger field he'll be meeting in the big race around the tighter course at Churchill Downs. His record certainly doesn't inspire confidence in this regard.

The only time Gio Ponti has won in a field bigger than ten in six tries was around America's biggest turf oval Belmont Park. That was over his optimum trip of ten furlongs. And the yielding ground spread the field out but he still had to make his run down the wide outside to obtain clear passage.

In addition if one short head photo had gone the other way Gio Ponti would also have lost all four times he's run around seven furlong ovals like Churchill Down's turf course.

CAN UNCLE MO BEAT BOYS AT TOSCONOVA?

I swap speed ratings with my American friend Cary Fotias (check out his web site at www.equiform.com). And I reckon he knows more about the merits of American horses than anyone. So when he says that this year his ratings suggest America has the two fastest juveniles in years it's time to sit up and take notice.

The two juveniles in question are Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova. They're surely going to dominate this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. So I think it's time we had a close look at them.

BOYS AT TOSCONOVA (40) is a strong, rangy, rather long striding sort that looks built for ten furlongs. It's always tough to tell this from the pedigree of an American horse because so few US races are run beyond nine furlongs. But the fact sire won a Grade 1 over 8.5f at two and his dam's best run came over nine furlongs certainly suggest stamina is more his strong suit than speed.

First time out trainer Rick Dutrow took the unusual step of starting him in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile - a red hot Grade 3 contest that's America's best early season 2YO race and often produces future stars.

That race is only five furlongs, so it's not surprising Boys At Tosconova was outpaced and so far back early on he doesn't show up in the video of the race till they round the home turn. At that point he was still stone last and came six wide to make his run.

Exiting the turn Boys At Tosconova got a case of the wobbles and ran around as he failed to change leads. His jockey got busy with the whip trying to make him do so but clearly felt he was doing more harm than good as he put down his stick and just rode him hands and heels in the final furlong. Boys At Tosconova then gained smoothly to take second, and was full of run crossing the line.

Next time out Boys at Tosconova was dropped to maiden company and simply ran away from his rivals right from the start to score by a huge margin, hard held. Despite not being ridden out he still covered the last furlong in under 12 seconds - something you rarely see in a dirt race.

Finally Boys At Tosconova was stepped up to seven furlongs for the Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. There he had to be nudged along to go the pace in fourth early on. But as his stamina started to kick in he made a big, sweeping move around the home turn which took him to the front. In the straight he was moving so easily his jockey took a long look back at this rivals before deciding not to put him under pressure. He simply cruised away to win by nearly two lengths.

After this his connections decided it would be best to send him straight to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile without another prep race.

Clearly Boys At Tosconova is going to appreciate the extra furlong and a half in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's an exceptional talent. Indeed trainer Rick Dutrow says he's the best two year old he's ever trained.

UNCLE MO (39) is a lengthy, muscular, mature sort that clearly has more early pace than Boys At Tosconova. He has a big, loping stride that he uses to roll along at a strong pace and just keep on going. I wouldn't want to be betting him much beyond a mile.

First time out Uncle Mo blew home by nearly fifteen lengths in a Saratoga maiden over six furlongs, clocking a seriously fast time. Last Saturday, on his second start, he won the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in close to the stakes record for the race.

In that race Uncle Mo was son disputing the lead and steadily forged clear up the straight despite shifting towards the rail a couple of times.

My feeling from watching all the videos of both horse's runs is that Cary's numbers are right to put Boys At Tosconova slightly ahead of Uncle Mo. He looks much more the finished article at this stage. More importantly he has a change of gear that Uncle Mo has yet to produce.

Watching Uncle Mo loping along in the closing stages of the Champagne Stakes made me think he'd be vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot like Boys at Tosconova that had the ability to stick with him.

It seems to me the bookies have made an error in marking up Uncle Mo 5-4 for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and offering 4-1 about Boys At Tosconova. I think they're simply responding to the recency of Uncle Mo's run. Boys at Tosconova has run a bit faster and looks a better, more versatile horse.