STREET SENSE CAN BEAT KENTUCKY DERBY JINX

I found it hard to make speed ratings for the Breeders' Cup meeting at Churchill Downs. But after a lengthy consultation with US speed ratings expert Cary Fotias (check out his website on www.equiform.com) I was finally able to come up with something like a sensible result. And whatever way I looked at the times that were run there was no escaping the conclusion that STREET SENSE (41) ran a truly sensational time for a two year old in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Street Sense won the Juvenile by a record ten lengths, and despite being eased close home he still ran the final half furlong in 6.09 seconds. That's amazingly fast for the end of a dirt race and suggests strongly that Street Sense will have no problem going the extra one and a half furlongs of the Kentucky Derby run on the same course next May. His sire won the Dubai World Cup over a mile and a quarter and his dam has some pretty stout influences in her pedigree as well.

There is a widespread belief in America that it's simply impossible to win both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby, and that even running in the first race blows a horse's chances of taking the Classic. I did a bit of research into the matter and found that the situation is nothing like as bad as it is portrayed. Okay all ten Juvenile winners that ran in the Kentucky Derby did lose. But ten of the 24 horses which reached the first three in the Juvenile and ran in the Derby reached the first three in that race as well. All told there have been 43 horses which ran in both races. And there have actually been three Derby winners which ran in the Juvenile – Spend A Buck, Alysheba and Sea Hero.

I guess the real scary stat is that only about 10% of BC Juvenile runners end up running in the Derby. But that says more about the soundness of today's thoroughbreds than their ability to run well in both races.

RED ROCKS BETTER FROM OFF THE PACE

RED ROCKS (41) has been remarkably consistent all season. But seeing how well he did coming from a long way off the searching early pace to win the Breeders' Cup Turf I suspect he's better ridden this way. I can recall Dettori saying he hit the front on him too soon in the Voltigeur, and it may well be he's one of those horses that tends to idle in front.

Red Rocks has never run a truly huge speed rating, but he's demonstrated the kind of versatility that only very smart horses tend to possess. I see him winning another big international race next year even though he'll have to face the unusually large group of brilliant 3YO's from this year that are set to remain in training next term.