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CONDUIT HAS A BIG SHOT IN JAPAN CUP The fastest time clocked at the Breeders' Cup meeting was the one put up by CONDUIT (42) when winning the Breeders' Cup Turf. I confess that I've under-rated Conduit before. But the fast time he cocked in the St Leger and his overall record have won me over. If he’d been fitter on his seasonal debut and not been caught napping by Campanologist at Royal Ascot he’d be unbeaten in seven starts beyond a mile. A lot of people seem to think that Conduit only won at Santa Anita because of the searching early pace. But remember he made up an extraordinary amount of ground to scoot home by six lengths over just 10f handicap at Epsom on Derby day. He also showed that he can beat good rivals in a sprint finish when scoring at Goodwood. It's interesting to note that there have now been four running of the Breeders’ Cup Turf where a three year old that placed in the St Leger has run. If Milan hadn’t gone under narrowly they’d have won three times out of four. I rate Conduit a proper international class performer. And I like the idea of him going for the Japan Cup. The searching early pace that the enormous Japanese fields ensure in their Group 1 races will suit him down to the ground there. If he takes that race he'll have won a huge amount of prize money as a three year old and be in line to shoot for the European earnings record at four.
CASINO DRIVE LOOKS GOOD FOR JAPAN CUP DIRT I am a sucker for a good storyline so I really wanted to see the unbeaten Japanese star CASINO DRIVE (30) do something special when he tried the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita before running in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He won all right, and he had a bit in hand at the line. But what I saw tells me that Casino Drive is what his pedigree says; a dirt horse. What I had hoped to see was Casino Drive produce the acceleration that seems to win most Pro-Ride races. At first everything seemed to be going fine in this regard. When jockey Victor Espinoza asked Casino Drive to kick just after the three furlong pole he picked up well off the slow pace, cruising the next two furlongs in 23 seconds flat. It looked like he was going to run away with the race at this point, just as he had in his two previous outings on dirt. But in the final half furlong, despite Espnoza getting busy, Casino Drive's rivals started closing slowly and he covered the distance in exactly 6 seconds. In other words he slowed from 11.5 seconds to 12.0 seconds a furlong. Espinoza commented afterwards "It was a slow pace and that's why I let him go at the three-eighths pole, so he could get something out of the race for the next race." He added that he pushed Casino Drive out in the final furlong because "I wanted to see how much horse I had." I have to say that's not how it looked to me. I reckon he pushed Casino Drive because he was being challenged and that he would only have won by a rapidly diminishing neck or half length if Espinoza hadn't ridden him. Casino Drive is a seriously good looking horse with a huge stride. He's definitely an animal that lengthens rather than quickens, one who will excel at much longer than the mile and 110 yards of this Allowance (Conditions) race. On reflection he would have been a stone cold certainty for the mile and a half Belmont Stakes if a stone bruise on the eve of the race hadn't forced his withdrawal. No doubt he'll improve for the step up in distance in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But, just like the probable favourite Curlin, he looks to be an out and out dirt performer that lacks the acceleration required to win a top race on any other surface. |
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