GERMANY - WAR BLADE

Here is a profile of War Blade, a horse Bernard and I have been fantasizing about for more than a month now. It looks like we just can't drum up the necessary money to buy the beast ourselves which is heartbreaking. I wish I made speed figures for Germany but I'd be pretty confident this horse ran around 120 Beyer when winning in mind-boggling style on his dirt debut in Europe's only pattern race on dirt for 3YO's, the Sandbahn Classic.

The owner seems inclined to sell but trainer Schutz really rates War Blade and wants to win the Dubai World Cup with the horse. The thing is, I don't think he'll get into the race. The panel of handicappers who assess the entrants surely won't be inclined to give War Blade a big enough rating to ensure he gets in. They'll surely look at his latest win as being some sort of a fluke. I bet they give him only 112 or less. That might not even get him into the consolation race.

If I were Schutz, I'd persuade the owners to ship the horse to America and go for the Donn and Gulfstream Handicaps. I don't think that'll happen though.

Right now we're stuck. We've only been able to offer $X and that hasn't moved the owner to sell. Luckily no-one follows German racing, especially their dirt racing, so War Blade has not yet been picked up by the normal bloodstock agent's grapevine. That might change if the horse is entered in the Dubai World Cup and some journalist decides to interview Schutz about his chances.

I think $X would probably swing it with War Blade, maybe even less, seeing how awful the DMark is doing versus the dollar. The owner would then overrule Schutz. As I see it, $X would be a bargain price. War Blade looks nailed on to be a G1 horse and could just turn out to be the best in America.

I should say here that there is (as ever) a downside. War Blade apparently fails the vet on grounds of the x-ray. We haven't yet figured out just what this means. The thing is though, he's been running regularly and is sound enough to go awfully quick.

Maybe War Blade will have trouble running on the much faster American dirt surfaces. Maybe he's just too big to stay sound on them. However, he's won on firm turf against decent horses so it can't be that big a problem.

The horse is apparently really big. He was 1.7 meters (16.3) even as a yearling. I can't imagine how big he must be now.

I hate to see this horse slip by. He's almost certainly the best European dirt runner I'm ever going to come across however long I keep looking.

Anyhow, see what you think.

 

PAST PERFORMANCES

Date track dist gng class fin

6May00Hop 1m 1/8 T gd MSW 2-0.5 Made running till headed late

13AugGelk 1m 1/8 T gd MSW 2-3.5 Rated, rallied from home turn

26AugDort 1m 1/16 T gd MSW 1-2.5 Raced third, led 2f out, ridden out

24SepColo 1m 3/16 T gf Alw 1-hd no comment available

11OctDort 1m 1/8 T frm Alw 1-1.5 Raced second, rallied to lead close home

19NovNeus 1m 3/16 fst Listed 1-20 Wide and behind early, sn led, drew off

ANALYSIS

It is tough to analyze War Blade because I don't have all the knowledge I normally have when looking at a horse. I don't have German speed ratings and I don't know the form in Germany too well.

However, War Blade does look pretty darned amazing. He's won his last four starts and last time out he scored the widest margin win in a European pattern race EVER. My research (below) indicates that most wide margin pattern winners go on to become G1 performers which isn't exactly a big shock.

Last time out in the Sandbahn Classic, one of only four pattern races run on dirt in Europe this year (and the only one restricted to 3YO's), War Blade won by twenty lengths from Sixtino and Song Of Nice. Sixtino had previously run three times in pattern company (all Listed) and had never been beaten by such a big margin (fourth, fifth and sixth). Song Of Nice had previously run fourth in Listed company too and last year ran fifth by six and a half lengths in the Winterfavoriten to Glad Master and Global Dancer (the Winterfavoriten is Germany's top 2YO race).

The interesting thing about War Blade's latest run is that it was his first try on dirt. Nothing could go with him.

According to his owner, War Blade was immature and needed to grow as a 2YO. He was almost certainly not fit enough to do himself justice on his first two starts but has proceeded to win his next four in a row.

HOW FAST DID HE RUN

Neuss is a very deep and slow dirt course. The times suggest it resembles the slow fibresand tracks in England. In fact it's even slower. I don't have standard times for the course as yet or class pars. However, we can get a pretty good idea of how fast War Blade ran because there were three races run over the 1900 meter trip the day he ran.

Here are the times for the three races

Maiden 3YO 2:14.9

Allowance 3+ 2:15.6

War Blade 2:11.6

I guess we could chuck out the allowance race and say that it must have been below par. This seems unlikely because it formed part of the 'quintet', the five televised races broadcast on German TV and which form the most popular bet over there.

Let's say though, for the sake of argument that the maiden race was just a bog standard maiden race and that the fact it was faster than the allowance race means nothing. Well, maiden races in Britain, Ireland and France at this time of year for 3YO's all run to an average Beyer of 85, the same as in the states. If German maiden races are the same then War Blade ran a 113 Beyer.

Of course, if we allow that the allowance race was a bona fide contest run in fair time then the Beyer for War Blade would be stratospheric - something over 120.

Another approach would be to just look at the horses War Blade beat. The second and third had both been fourth by six or eight lengths in Listed company. Anywhere else this would mean they were running Beyers around the 90 mark. If we say the second ran a 90 Beyer then War Blade ran 119 Beyer. If the second only ran 85 Beyer (which would be on the unlikely side I'd say) War Blade ran 114.

Basically, whatever way you cut it, War Blade ran humongously fast. There seems little doubt he's a Grade 1 horse on dirt.

ABOUT THAT WINNING MARGIN

My records only go back eight years. In that time no horse has won a Listed or Group race by as big a margin as the 20 lengths War Blade scored by in the Sandbahn Classic. Turtle Island's 15 length success in the Irish Guineas was the next greatest margin of victory in pattern company.

If you look at horses that won European pattern races by six lengths or more, the statistics are pretty heartening for War Blade's future. 50% (22 of 44) six length plus winners of Listed races went on to at least reach the four in G1 company (12 won in G1 company).

The statistics are actually better than they look at first glance. Some of the wins resulted from heavy ground or marathon distances (two miles plus). In addition, others were scored against just two or three rivals. Still others were produced by early season two year olds that simply enjoyed a big edge in maturity. Finally several winners only ran once or twice afterwards or not at all. 17 of the big margin Listed winners in fact fell into these categories. This means that horses which were bona fide big margin Listed winners like War Blade went on to reach the first four in G1 company 22 times out of 27 and won 12 times out of 27 at G1 level.

The results don't provide a big enough sample of data to draw strong conclusions from about the significance of widening margins of success. However it is certainly true generally that the wider the margin of victory the the more often the horse will succeed in higher class. This being so it would appear all but certain that War Blade will at least prove to be competitive in G1 company if not dominant.

Of course, you could argue that since horses tend to win by bigger margins on dirt than grass, War Blade's wide margin of success is not that significant. However, in America, I know of only two horses that have equaled War Blade's margin in pattern company. One was I think Dare And Go who won by twenty lengths as well (I need to check this because I've a feeling it was some other Mandella horse. In any event it's that horse that beat Cigar). The other was Secretariat whose 31 length win in the Belmont Stakes is generally held to be the widest margin of victory ever achieved in a pattern race. Secretariat is of course also generally considered to be the best horse ever to race in America.

 

SIRE

War Blade's sire, Dashing Blade, was the top 2YO of 1989, winning four of his five starts including the G1 7f National stakes in Ireland and the G1 7f Dewhurst stakes in England. At three he won the G2 10f Prix Eugene Adam in France and the G1 12f Gran Premio D'italiaTrofeo Saima in Italy (by six lengths).

Dashing Blade is one of Germany's top sires. His best progeny to date have been;

FABERGER

Won G3 Prix Messidor over a mile at Deauville in France in 2,000 and G1Premio Vittorio di Capua from Sumitas and Barathea Guest over a mile in Italy in 2,000.

NOBLE PEARL

Won G1 Gran Criterium in Italy over a mile in 1998 (their top 2YO race).

POWER FLAME

Won five G3's and a G2, all over a mile, from 1997 to 2,000.

PROUDWINGS

Won 2YO G3 over a mile in Italy in 2,000. Previously second by half a length in German G3 to Bernardon (won Germany's top 2YO race next time out).

KABUKI

Won 6f 2YO G3 in Italy in 1998.

DJIBOUTI

Second in 2,000 German 2,000 Guineas (G2).

KARAKAL

Second in G2 and two G3's. Third in G3. All over 8-11f in Germany

MAESTOSO

Second to Catella (subsequent BC Filly & Mare Turf third) in German G2 over 10f in 1999.

S'IL VOUS PLAIS

Second by three quarters of a length in German G2 over a mile in 1995 to Tryphosa (placed twice in G1 after).

STILLETO BLADE

Second in G2 Royal Lodge stakes at two over a mile in Britain.

VAILANCE

Second in 6f German G2 at two.

DASHING BLUE

Won Listed and placed several Group sprints in UK, including third in G1 Nunthorpe stakes.

EDEN ROCK

Won two G3's in Germany over a mile and ten furlongs. Placed in several other Group races, including third in German G1 over 10 furlongs.

MILL KING

Third in two G2's and one G3, all in Germany over a mile to a mile and a sixteenth.

Dashing Blade has had good winners at a wide range of distances. However, if you look at his 17 biggest earners aged three and up, a dozen of them were best over 8-10 furlongs.

Only one of his progeny had tried dirt as far as I can trace before War Blade so no viable statistics are possible in this area. Going-wise, there seems to be no strong preference. Dashing Blade's have won on very firm and very soft turf (Dashing Blade himself was kept to good or firmer turf for all his career)

 

DAM

War Blade's dam, Warluskee (1992 filly by Dancing Brave), won over a mile and a half. War Blade is her first foal to race. She died while foaling him (maybe because the delivery was complicated by War Blade's great size)

Warluksee's dam, Walesiana has also foaled;

WAITING GAME (1994 colt by Reprimand)

Won seven furlong race on the 'All Weather' (dirt) at Southwell in Britain on his debut. Second by a head to subsequent big handicap winner (and Listed placed) Further Outlook next time. Only two subsequent starts (broke down in second of them).

 

WALPOLE (1995 colt by High Estate)

Ran just once when last in good Newmarket maiden.

 

ZAHRAT DUBAI (1996 filly by Unfuwain)

Won G3 Musidora stakes and G1 Nassau stakes (both a mile and a quarter). Third G1 Epsom Oaks (12f) and fourth G1 Yorkshire Oaks (12f)

 

EDHKERINI (1997 filly by Lammtarra)

Tall, Sheikh Mohammed-owned filly. Unfit on only start to date (May 2,000) when third to subsequent Listed winner Riyafa in a maiden race.

 

EXTENDED PEDIGREE

 

DP = 3-0-8-3-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.21 | *

* - Reine-De-Course

SHIRLEY MILL REEF* b. 1968 [CS]22-d

ELEGANT AIR HEIGHTS (GB)

(GB) b. 1975 HARDIEMMA (GB) b. 1969 1-l

b. 1981 ELEGANT TERN SEA-BIRD (FR)* ch. 1962 [S] 2-n

DASHING b. 1971 PRIDES PROFILE 1963 4-r

BLADE (GB) SHARPEN UP

b. 1987 (GB)* ATAN ch. 1961 2-f

SHARP CASTAN ch. 1969 ROCCHETTA (GB) 1961 5-i

1977 [BC]

SULTRY ONE TROPIQUE (FR) b. 1952 22-a

1961 SWEET HEART 1952 2-o

NORTHERN DANCER

LYPHARD (CAN)* b. 1961 [BC] 2-d

DANCING b. 1969 [C]

BRAVE* GOOFED ch. 1960 17-b

b. 1983 NAVAJO DRONE gr. 1966 1-l

PRINCESS

WARLUSKEE 1974 OLMEC* 1966 3-d

1992 STAR APPEAL APPIANI (ITY) b. 1963 4-f

(IRE)

WALESIANA b. 1970 STERNA (GER) br. 1960 5-d

1987 WONDROUS PRINCE IPPI

b. 1969 1-s

PEARL (GER)

1980 WELTWUNDER 1962 4-o